Reyes Vs. Jacoby Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight hitters Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby will go to war this weekend (Sat., June 8, 2024) at UFC Louisville inside KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Missouri.

Reyes’ decline has to be one of the worst in recent memory. He rose up the ranks undefeated and should probably go down in history as the man to dethrone Jon Jones. When the judges went against him, however, it all unraveled. He’s since lose three straight via knockout, and he looked downright vulnerable in his last appearance against Ryan Spann.

The situation is simply dire.

Meanwhile, Jacoby’s second UFC stint has been far more fruitful than his first. The former professional kickboxer has found a home at 205 pounds, establishing himself as something of a gatekeeper to the Top 15.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Reyes Vs. Jacoby Betting Odds

• Dominick Reyes victory: +165
• Dominick Reyes via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Dominick Reyes via submission: TBD
• Dominick Reyes via decision: TBD
• Dustin Jacoby victory: -225
• Dustin Jacoby via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Dustin Jacoby via submission: TBD
• Dustin Jacoby via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Reyes Wins

It’s hard to describe Reyes’ current skill set, because the Spann performance was so bad — he just stood in the pocket throwing naked kicks against a big puncher (watch it). Reyes knows better. At his best, Reyes is a quality kickboxer with good power who knows how to make use of classic Southpaw tactics.

This bout is a test of whether Reyes has anything left. Jacoby is a good technical kickboxer, but he’s not overwhelmingly power or fast. He will give Reyes a reasonable work rate on the feet, which should allow Reyes a chance to settle into the fight and show whether he can still perform.

If he can, it’s a very winnable match up. Reyes has out-struck better strikers than Jacoby. If Alonzo Menifield was fast and powerful enough to explode through Jacoby’s defense, Reyes should be able to do the same, particularly if given the opportunity to line up his left hand and get his setups going.

How Jacoby Wins

Jacoby’s kickboxing is definitely his best strength. He doesn’t have one serious standout ability in that realm, but Jacoby manages distance well and can hurt his opponent with kicks, punches and knees alike.

Above, I said Jacoby can be expected to set a reasonable pace and let Reyes settle into the fight. Generally, that’s true, but the best strategy here may be to push the pedal through the floor early. Why give Reyes — a man on a serious losing streak that’s surely affecting his confidence in the cage — any chance to start rebuilding momentum?

Jacoby is durable and tough enough to take a counter shot early if it means he can extend his combinations and start finding the mark. Bursting forward at the first bell gives him a real chance at scoring a major highlight reel finish, as well as taking out a potentially dangerous opponent before the fight gets going.

Confidence and momentum are everything in fighting, and Jacoby shouldn’t give Reyes an inch.

Reyes Vs. Jacoby Prediction

It’s impossible to have any faith in Reyes right now.

If Reyes shows up performing like it’s 2019, I’m more than happy to eat crow. I’d be thrilled, in fact. Unfortunately, five years is a lifetime in combat sports. I try not to fall into judging fighters solely by their last fight, but Reyes looked woefully inept and defensively porous against Menifield. That bout was so concerning! Losing competitive fights to Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka could happen to anyone, but a formerly elite contender shouldn’t just be getting sparked by a straightforward brawler.

A good striker like Jacoby should be able to take advantage of those defensive woes.

Prediction: Dustin Jacoby victory (-225)

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