UFC 304 Best Betting Props, Parlays & Picks

UFC 304 is live this weekend (Sat., July 27, 2024). We have a rematch in our main event slot with Welterweight champion Leon Edwards defending versus Belal Muhammad. Check the odds for that bout (and much more!) right here.

UFC 304 is upon us this weekend (Sat., July 21, 2024) from inside Co-op Live in Manchester, England, with a “U.K. vs. The World”-themed card with two champions (sorta) in the main- and co-main slots. The headliner is Welterweight champion, Leon Edwards, defending his title against Belal Muhammad. The co-main sees interim Heavyweight kingpin, Tom Aspinall, defending his belt against Curtis Blaydes, while Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues and Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze round out the pay-per-view (PPV) main card.

The late “Prelims” headliner is Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda. Other bouts of note on the undercard include Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil and Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card (see it here), and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 304 Main Card Money Line Odds

Leon Edwards (-250) vs. Belal Muhammad (+205)

Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad first met in the main event of UFC Vegas 21 in the APEX back on March 13, 2021. The bout went a round and change and ended after Muhammad was deemed unfit to continue due to an accidental eye poke.

Muhammad has maintained, to this day, that he was robbed in that fight and would have beaten the future champ if ‘Rocky’ could have kept his thumb out of his eye. Edwards, on the other hand, was sure that he was on course to victory and — like the UFC — didn’t view Muhammad as a seriously challenger until the pool at Welterweight ran a little dry.

Edwards was certainly won the only round these two fought (as confirmed by the judges’ scorecards). He landed 19 of 39 significant strikes in that round (not including his eye poke). Muhammad only managed to land 8 of 26 sig. strikes. Edwards looked great in the round, hurting Muhammad with a headkick and a body kick. Muhammad’s greatest period of success was holding Edwards against the cage while in survival mode.

Since then Edwards beat Nate Diaz (though was almost embarrassed in the last round there) and then knocked the soul out of Kamaru Usman with a last minute head kick. In the immediate rematch Edwards beat Usman to take a majority decision (majority due to a point deduction on Edwards for a fence grab). Most recently Edwards cruised past Colby Covington.

Muhammad has been more active since their no contest. He’s won five straight, all decisions other than a TKO over Sean Brady at UFC 280 in 2022 (see it here).

Muhammad has looked decent over that run, the latter half has been done while working with Team Khabib Nurmagomedov (in case you hadn’t heard by now). On paper that five fight winning streak looks good. However, it includes wins over a 43-year-old Demian Maia, a 38-year-old Stephen Thompson, a 37-year-old Gilbert Burns and a rapidly declining Vicente Luque. Muhammad himself is now 36-years-old, four years older than Edwards.

I don’t see Muhammad being able to impose his game against Edwards, who has gotten the best of better wrestlers and deadlier strikers in the past few years. Edwards has a slight reach advantage, but his range fighting expertise will make that feel far more significant. His takedown defense is stellar (70%), too. Muhammad’s takedown defense is ungodly at 93%, but Edwards doesn’t need to land a takedown to win this fight.

Edwards should be able to dictate the pace and space of this fight. Muhammad will want to get in his face and grind him against the cage, but I think he will get too beat up in the process of trying that (eating jabs and leg kicks). And eventually he’ll be stuck on the outside looking in with Edwards comfortably managing the range and landing strikes. Muhammad has only been finished once in his career (by a peaking Vicente Luque — see it here). But I believe Edwards was on course to finish him in their first fight with his fast twitch, zero telegraphed kicks. I think if this fight goes multiple rounds, sooner or later, Edwards will land a kick that finishes things.

Pick: Leon Edwards via KO, round 3.

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Tom Aspinall (-355) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+280)

We only got 15 seconds of action when these two first met, in the headliner of UFC London on July 23, 2022. See that below:

Tom Aspinall came out aggressively in the fight, and ate some counter shots, before loading up on a heavy leg kick. He landed it, but blew his ACL out when he brought back his foot and planted it while off balance.

Aspinall has fought twice since then with a combined fight time of just over two minutes and twenty seconds. He battered Marcin Tybua with counter hooks and kicks before dropping him with a step in elbow and straight right and finishing him with ground and pound (check it out here). At UFC 295 in November he took a big shot from Sergei Pavlovich, but then ended him with a pair of right hooks from hell to claim the interim title (see it here).

Curtis Blaydes lost to Pavlovich in 2023. He was able to land some good counters, but his chin couldn’t survive the Russian’s power shots (see the TKO here). He rebounded with a win over Jailton Almeida, though. After losing a round to Almeida, Blaydes stuffed a takedown and put away the Brazilian with hammerfists (see those here).

In this bout I think Blaydes is going to struggle with the hand speed of Aspinall. Pavlovich hurt him with his single shots, so I can’t imagine Blaydes being able to stick around if he gets hit with Aspinall’s combos. Blaydes hasn’t utilized his wrestling much in his previous bouts, though he’s clearly got the edge over Aspinall in that department.

I don’t think Blaydes will find success with takedowns here, though. Aspinall is too quick and he will be able to hurt Blaydes with short shots on the takedown attempts, too.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall via TKO, round 1.

Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/MLB Photos via Getty Images

King Green (-125) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+105)

Everyone’s got what they wanted with this match-up, right? Paddy Pimblett has finally been given a dangerous opponent to dance with in the Octagon. The scouser has talked a big game ever since signing for UFC from Cage Warriors in 2020. Now he has to back up those words against a certified finisher.

King Green beat-up Jim Miller at UFC 300 in April. Prior to that he was KO’d by Jalin Turner (watch that KO here). That came after a KO over Grant Dawson and a submission against Tony Ferguson (see it here).

Pimblett has back-to-back decision wins after beating Tony Ferguson at UFC 296. That followed his controversial win over Jared Gordon (where many onlookers bemoaned the judges’ scorecards). Surgery forced Pimblett to take a year off between those fights. It’s been seven months since the Ferguson win.

Green will be there to get hit in this fight, but there are questions over whether Pimblett has the striking skill or power to make him pay for it. Green does have the power to hurt Pimblett, if he can catch up to him.

Pimblett is fleet of foot and has great striking defence (62%). I have a feeling we might see a repeat of Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page here, with Pimblett avoiding what Green can do and taking the easiest route possible to victory. Every fighter should probably do that, but few are disciplined enough to make it work. Pimblett is probably able to dance around Green and find opportunities to initiate grappling exchanges. In those exchanges, Pimblett will come out on top, though he may struggle to submit the experienced Green.

I’d love it if Green knocked Pimblett down a peg, but I just don’t think Pimblett is reckless enough to give him the opportunity to do so.

Prediction: Paddy Pimblett via unanimous decision.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Christian Leroy Duncan (-142) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+120)

Well, here’s your fight of the night.

Christian Leroy Duncan is 3-1 in UFC after back-to-back TKO victories. In November he elbowed Denis Tiuliulin to sleep (see it here) and in March he pounded out Claudio Ribeiro. ‘Robocop’ Gregory Rodrigues has had some fun brawls since coming over to UFC in 2021. He also elbowed the heck out of Tiuliulin (see his handiwork here). Last time out Rodrigues TKO’d Brad Tavares (see that one here).

Other than his debut against Dusko Todorovic, Rodrigues has won all his UFC fights via TKO. We’re yet to see much of it yet, but Rodrigues also has a legit BJJ black belt and will probably be leagues ahead of Duncan if they go to the ground.

Rodrigues’ BJJ might be like Edson Barboza’s, excellent, but not something he likes doing in an MMA fight. Even though there’s a great path to victory for Rodrigues there, I think we’re going to see a fun kickboxing match between these two.

If that happens, I like Duncan’s chances. He has a four inch reach advantage and a 62% accuracy on his significant strikes. Rodrigues’ accuracy is not shabby (55%), but that reach is going to really play havoc with his gameplan here.

Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan via unanimous decision.

Photo by Suhaimi Abdullah/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Arnold Allen (-238) vs. Giga Chikadze (+195)

This could be a very entertaining fight, also. Arnold Allen and Giga Chikadze are both accomplished on the feet, but I’m not sure how much action we’ll see with both men standing.

Allen is coming off two losses which showed how difficult it could be for him to ever break into the elite ranks at Featherweight. Max Holloway showed Allen can’t hang with an elite striker. And Movsar Evloev showed he can’t stay up against an elite wrestler. Fortunately for Allen, this time around he’s fighting someone who isn’t a killer in either department (though Chikadze is certainly a very good kickboxer).

Chikadze was humbled by Calvin Kattar in 2022, following his TKO wins over Edson Barboza (see it here) and Cub Swanson (check it out here). Since that loss, though, he regrouped with a decision win over Alex Caceres.

Chikadze will have a lot of size over Allen (four inch height and reach advantage) and he’s a more accurate and potent striker. I think there are lots of reasons to pick him here and I can imagine a fight where Chikadze keeps this thing standing and pot shots Allen on route to a convincing victory, maybe landing one of his brutal liver kicks along the way.

My pick is for Allen, though. Since I think he’s going to be able to drag Chikadze down and spend a lot of time in top position, hunting for submissions. I think Chikadze will be able to defend the submissions, but not the takedowns.

Prediction: Arnold Allen via unanimous decision

UFC 304 ‘Late Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Nathaniel Wood (-425) vs. Daniel Pineda (+330)

Nathaniel Wood needs a better nickname. “The Prospect” is a bit of a backhanded compliment for a 21-year-old. For a 30-year-old it’s an insult. Wood has been with the UFC since 2018, debuting with a d’arce over Johnny Eduardo (see it here). He’s racked up some decent wins as of late (Andre Fili, Charles Jourdain), though he’s proved a bit of a decision machine having not stopped a fight since 2019. He’s coming off a decision loss to Muhammad Naimov.

It’s hard to feel like the soon to be 39-year-old Daniel Pineda isn’t just making up the numbers here. He lost to Alex Caceres last time out and has been in and out of the UFC over the past decade.

Both these guys have good grappling and I hope we get to see some exchanges and scrambles on the ground. I like the younger and more tested Wood to get the better of those exchanges.

Prediction: Nathaniel Wood via unanimous decision.

Molly McCann (-360) vs. Bruna Brasil (+285)

By now it’s pretty obvious that we can’t book Molly McCann opposite a grappler. She was tapped by Juljia Stoliarenko (quite brutally — see) and Erin Blanchfield over the past few years. Those losses were no fun at all. Nothing like her spinning elbow wins over Hannah Goldy (see it here) and Luana Carolina (see it here). Most recently McCann was able to get a submission of her own, against Diana Belbita (check that out here).

Bruna Brasil is a kickboxer who may have already showed us her ceiling, thanks to a loss to Loma Lookboonmee last time out. That came a year after she was KO’d by Denise Gomes. Brasil will have length on McCann. However, McCann has shown a willingness to crash through space to get to her target and I don’t think a stiff jab is going to scare her off of exploding into the pocket.

I think McCann will get to do what she does best here and she’ll be fuelled by that very friendly crowd.

Prediction: Molly McCann via TKO, round 1.

Caolan Loughran (-198) vs. Jake Hadley (+164)

Jake Hadley didn’t look great two months ago when he whiffed on a dozen takedown attempts and was pieced apart by Charles Johnson from range. That followed a loss to Cody Durden where he was pretty overwhelmed.

Caolan Loughran is 1-1 in UFC after beating Angel Pachecho via unanimous decision in March.

I think this should be a pick ‘em, since Loughran is very untested in UFC and Hadley has at least shown he can finish fights against the lowest ranked opposition available in the promotion.

Hadley’s finishing has me fancying his chances here against the still rather raw Loughran.

Prediction: Jake Hadley via submission, round 2.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 304 ‘Early Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Modestas Bukauskas (-155) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+130)

Modestas Bukauskas has had a very up and down time since joining UFC from the Euro scene in 2020. He’s a favorite in this fight, but I don’t like how much damage he has taken over the past few years. Last time out he was slept by a hook from Vitor Petrino (see it here).

Prachnio has taken a lot of lumps in his UFC career, too. But not a lot lately. He was KO’d by Sam Alvey back in 2018 and then lost to a Magomed Ankalaev head kick right after (see it here). He just beat Devin Clark in February, that was after his own loss to Vitor Petrino (via submission).

Statistically speaking Prachnio has better sig. strikes landed per minute, striking accuracy, sig. strikes absorbed per minute and striking defense than Bukauskaus. I think that all spells an upset victory for the Pole (who was +195 when he beat Clark).

Prediction: Marcin Prachnio via unanimous decision

Oban Elliott (+114) vs. Preston Parsons (-135)

Oban Elliott hasn’t done much in UFC, but his takedown and top control game looked impressive against Val Woodburn last time out. Preston Parsons is coming off a win over Matthew Semelsberger.

Parsons is the more battle tested product here and his 80% takedown defense is much better than Elliott’s past UFC opponents.

Prediction: Preston Parsons via unanimous decision.

Muhammad Mokaev (-148) vs. Manel Kape (+124)

This is buried on the early Prelims for some reason. Maybe the match-makers are thinking Manel Kape’s epic run of bad luck will continue and this fight will fall through at some point this week.

Kape’s last fight was a unanimous decision win over Felipe dos Santos at UFC 293 last year. Around that he’s had fights with Matheus Nicolau, Kai Kara-France, Deiveson Figueiredo and Alex Perez fall through. He’s also tried to fight Israel Adesanya.

Muhammad Mokaev remains undefeated after his unanimous decision win over Alex Perez in March. That moved Mokaev to 11-0 and followed his submission wins over Tim Elliott (see it here), Jafel Filho and Malcolm Gordon.

Kape is a lot of fun and has the ability to surprise anyone, but Mokaev is the safer bet here thanks to his immense 5.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. Kape has good takedown defense (77%), but Mokaev isn’t going to quit if he gets stuffed once or twice.

Prediction: Mohammad Mokaev via unanimous decision.

Sam Patterson (-380) vs. Keifer Crosbie (+300)

Sam Patterson will have an eight reach inch advantage over Kiefer Crosbie. Crosbie threw down with Kevin Joussett for one round before being submitted in his UFC debut (see it here). I think Patterson should be able to keep him at a distance and also take him down if he needs to.

Prediction: Sam Patterson via submission, round 2.

Mick Parkin (-278) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+225)

Mick Parkin is probably going to take down Lukasz Brzeski and make his size/weight advantage count.

Prediction: Mick Parkin via unanimous decision.

Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean

Not odds have been released for this fight at this time of writing. Shauna Bannon boasts a decent reach advantage and she has UFC experience. Alice Ardlean already has five losses on the regional circuit (albeit one to Zhang Weili).

Prediction: Shauna Bannon via unanimous decision.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 304 Prop Bets And Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting for this Saturday’s UFC 304 card …

Two fight parlay: Leon Edwards to defeat Belal Muhammad and Tom Aspinall to defeat Curtis Blaydes (-133)

Call this the ‘It’s Coming Home’ parlay. Both Edwards and Aspinall are too quick for their opponents. Edwards was giving Muhammad fits with his quick release kicks in their first bout and Blaydes has gotten hit a lot lately. Both of those reasons have me pretty confident that the Manchester fans will have lots to sing about on Saturday night. If you like more risk, more reward you could parlay TKO finishes for those guys for +528.

Paddy Pimblett Total Significant Strikes Landed – Under 67.5 (-115)

That’s a huge number for Pimblett there. Especially in a fight where I think he will be avoiding exchanges. Pimblett landed 106 on Tony Ferguson, but… so what? He landed 63 on Gordon and far less in his other fights (which didn’t go past the second round). If this goes to a decision, I think it will be because Pimblett is holding Green down on the ground (and not striking for fear of being moved out of position). You’d also cash this bet if Pimblett got a quick sub or if Green got a quick KO.

Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil – Fight to End in the 1st 60 seconds of Round 1 (+1400)

Manel Kape getting a point deducted isn’t available on DraftKings! That’s a shame I can see him grabbing the fence to avoid his tenth takedown from Mohammad Mokaev. Alright, for my dart I’ll be going for McCann and Brasil to end in less than a minute. Brasil has been KO’d before and McCann might be spurred into some early spinning shit by the rabid hometown-ish crowd.

UFC 304 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

What else are you liking for this event? Hit us up in the comments below.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card, starting with the “Prelims” play-by-play right here and followed by the “Main Card” play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+ before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

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