Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight rivals Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad will clash TONIGHT (Sat., July 27, 2024) at UFC 304 inside Co-op Live in Manchester, England.
It’s been more than three years since these two first men inside UFC Apex. A dominant first round from Edwards was offset by an eye poke that unfortunately ended the contest entirely (see it here), resulting in unfinished business. Since then, both have achieved a lot. Edwards dethroned Kamaru Usman (it was so awesome) and has defended his title twice, while Muhammad scored the five best wins of his entire career in consecutive fashion. Both men have leveled up since the first fight, but it remains to be seen if the dynamic from the first fight remains in place or changes entirely.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Edwards vs. Muhammad Betting Odds
- Leon Edwards victory: -258
- Leon Edwards via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
- Leon Edwards via submission: +1400
- Leon Edwards via decision: +100
- Belal Muhammad victory: +210
- Belal Muhammad via TKO/KO/DQ: +1000
- Belal Muhammad via submission: +1400
- Belal Muhammad via decision: +350
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Edwards Wins
Edwards is one of the sport’s finest technicians. He receives criticism for failing to really push his advantages, but “Rocky” understands well how to stay ahead and keep himself in control of the dance.
In this match up, Edwards is the far superior striker. Specifically, he’s much sharper at range and generally more powerful. Muhammad has the conditioning and activity to keep up with Edwards, but the English champion is far more likely to hurt his opponent in any given exchange.
For that reason, I’d like to see Edwards really focus on sitting down on his punches, as well as punishing the open side with kicks. To have any shot at the upset, Muhammad is going to have to be aggressive and in his face. Edwards has to set a pace he can maintain, but in general, answering Muhammad’s pressure with genuinely damaging shots will go a long way in easing that pressure and allowing Edwards to control the fight.
Oh, Muhammad also tends to dip into left high kicks. Edwards caught him once, and perhaps if he lands with a shin rather than foot, that’s the end of this would-be rivalry.
How Muhammad Wins
Muhammad is a crafty and tactical fighter. Solid skills in all areas allow him to adjust to his opponents, pressuring or fighting at range, forcing takedowns or opting to sprawl-and-brawl.
Against Edwards, pressure is the name of the game. Muhammad cannot hope to out-slick Edwards at distance. He can, however, aim to throw more and stay busier than the champion, who is prone to taking rounds off and letting exchanges slip away even in the midst of dominant performances.
Closing distance isn’t going to be easy, but it will be mandatory if Muhammad is to find success on the feet. He has to the use the jab to push Edwards near the fence and begin building combinations. When he does start to open up, Muhammad has to use body punches and frames carefully to avoid the clinch, which is another area Edwards uses to create big damage.
Navigating the clinch will be tricky, but Muhammad can avoid elbows by changing levels into his shots. If the shot lands, that’s fantastic, but if not, Muhammad has to break fully back to the boxing range rather than try to hang onto the upper body ties.
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Edwards vs. Muhammad Prediction
Muhammad is a crafty veteran who has made the most of his athletic gifts and over-performed on several occasions, but this is a brutal match up for him.
Edwards’ range advantage is going to a massive problem for Muhammad, and it’s unlikely he can wrestle his way through it. Furthermore, does Muhammad even have a boxing advantage here? I’m not convinced. He might walk through punishing kicks and straights only to still get touched up on the inside. What then? I have a hard time see Muhammad overwhelm Edwards with pure wrestling after Usman and Covington — an absolutely terrible iteration of Covington, admittedly — failed to do so.
Unless Edwards gives this away via comically-bad decision making, he should cruise to victory.
Prediction: Edwards via decision (+100)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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