Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 97 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Sept. 7, 2024) on ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 97 features a middleweight main event between Top 10 title contenders Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the flyweight showdown between Jessica Andrade and Natalia Silva, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 97 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Burns vs. Brady” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For UFC Vegas 97 live results and play-by-play click here.
170 lbs.: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
Gilbert “Durinho” Burns
Record: 22-7 | Age: 38 | Betting line: +150
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’10” | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.29 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.42 | Striking Defense: 54%
Takedown Average: 2.24 (38% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 50%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Knockout loss to Jack Della Maddalena
Sean Brady
Record: 16-1, 1 NC | Age: 31 | Betting line: -180
Wins: 3 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.77 | Striking accuracy: 53%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.55 | Striking Defense: 61%
Takedown Average: 3.29 (57% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 87%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Submission win over Kelvin Gastelum
Gilbert Burns turned 38 back in July and is probably at the tail end of his mixed martial arts (MMA) career and unlikely to find himself back in title contention anytime soon. You can blame his back-to-back losses to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena, which are forgivable when you consider that “Remember the Name” is now the welterweight champion and “JDM” is a perfect 7-0 inside the Octagon with five nasty finishes. The Brazilian is a grappler by trade and has just one knockout over the last six year, a UFC Fight Night 170 finish over submission wizard Demian Maia. That said, “Durinho” has five post-fight bonuses and usually turns in an action-packed performance, win or lose. His position at No. 6 in the official rankings feels a bit generous when you consider his strength of opposition, as well as his habit of coming up short in the big spot.
“The mindset that I’m getting right now is like my debut,” Burns told reporters at the UFC Vegas 97 media day (watch it here). “Back in my debut, I didn’t care, I just want to go there, not overthinking. There’s always pressure, but I’m trying to let that aside and kind of like my debut. I’m going to go in there and show everyone how good I am. I’m going to go in there and beat this guy on Saturday night. I’m not bringing that, ‘I have to win.’ No, like my debut, I want to show them how good I am and that’s kind of the mindset.”
“I’m always positive and I’m happy,” Burns continued. “If I fight good, and I win the fight I celebrate Saturday night. For sure, I get the family to get some nice food with the team, but then Sunday is another day. We keep going that victory carries for maybe like four days or the next event, so I kind of get to celebrate not as crazy when I win, but I don’t go too crazy on myself if I lose. … A win or loss doesn’t change who I am. For sure, I want to win, but it’s not like, ‘Oh my God, I lost. Everything is done now.’ It’s not like that.”
Sean Brady was probably one victory away from a welterweight title shot, or title eliminator at the bare minimum, until he got leveled by Belal Muhammad at UFC 280 back in late 2022. At the time, it seemed like a catastrophic loss, but much like Muhammad’s victory over Burns, Brady gets a pass now that “Remember the Name” has gone on to become champion and prove that he is, in fact, “that guy.” It also helps that Brady rebounded by running through battle-tested veteran Kelvin Gastelum, finishing the fight by way of third-round submission. The 31 year-old Philadelphian is not unlike his fight night foe in that his bread-and-butter is jiu jitsu and that makes this an intriguing battle that could be a showcase for high-level grappling … or a sloppy kickboxing match between two ground fighters who cancel each other out on the mat. Either way, I’m expecting this contest to go all five rounds based on the combined talent of both combatants.
“Gilbert, amazing jiu-jitsu,” Brady told reporters at the UFC Vegas 97 media day (watch it here). “Obviously he’s won (world championships) and everything like that, but that was a long time ago, and that was in the gi. Gi and no-gi is completely different, and MMA jiu-jitsu is completely different, as well. I think he’s got great submissions. I’m sure he’s great on bottom, but I definitely think I have better jiu-jitsu, and I’m looking to test it.”
“I was kind of asking for Gilbert,” Brady continued. “I was asking for a lot of guys, but Gilbert was definitely one of them. I respect Gilbert. He’s an amazing fighter, and he’s done amazing things. He’s fought for the belt, and he had a competitive fight with some of the best guys. He had a great fight going with Jack until it didn’t go his way. I think it’s my first true veteran fight that I’m going to get to test myself against somebody who’s been there, done that.”
Burns has not looked great in his last couple of fights and I’m not sure his victory over a listless Jorge Masvidal is anything to brag about either. That doesn’t make him any less dangerous on fight night and his resume is leagues above Brady’s, I just wonder how well the former title challenger will hold up considering all the miles on those Brazilian tires. If Brady had better hands I would be more inclined to predict a finish; but as it stands, I think he shuts Burns down for most of the fight and cruises to a sweep on all three scorecards.
Prediction: Brady def. Burns by unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva
Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade
Record: 26-12 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +245
Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 5 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’1“ | Reach: 62” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.62 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.37 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 2.37 (55% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 72%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Split decision win over Marina Rodriguez
Natalia Silva
Record: 17-5-1 | Age: 27 | Betting line: -305
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 4 DEC, 1 DQ | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’4“ | Reach: 65” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.53 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.10 | Striking Defense: 65%
Takedown Average: 0.50 (28% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 91%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Viviane Araujo
Jessica Andrade competed five times in 2023 and suffered three straight losses for the first time in her career — all finishes — leading fans and pundits to wonder if the accumulation of damage after nearly 40 professional fights was starting to take its toll. Let’s face it, you don’t rack up double-digit performance bonuses by playing it safe. Andrade silenced all doubts by storming back in late 2023 and early 2024, laying waste to Mackenzie Dern at UFC 295 before splitting Marina Rodriguez at UFC 300. “Bate Estaca” hasn’t changed much over the years and employs the Tasmanian Devil offense, which is basically just a tornado of violence from start to finish. It’s not the most technical approach to cage fighting but it’s supremely effective, which is why Andrade has the most knockouts and the most finishes in the history of the strawweight division.
“I think this is great matchmaking,” Andrade told reporters at the UFC Vegas 97 media day (watch it here). “It’s two good styles of fighting. When the name came up we thought about a main event in August. It turns out it gave enough time for both of us. I think both of us have to do a hard weight cut. I think it’s a girl I see what she’s all about. I’ve seen her since she’s come to the UFC. I’ve followed her. I’ve cheered her on ever since she’s come here. So I think it’s going to be a good fight since she’s come here.”
Natalia Silva made her UFC debut back in early 2022 after several years on the regional circuit and has quietly racked up five straight wins, a streak that helped her break into the Top 10 at No. 8. Her most recent victory came against Viviane Araujo at UFC Vegas 85 last February and the bookies were so impressed with her body of work they pegged the 27 year-old Brazilian as the -305 betting favorite. That’s a pretty sizable number when you consider what Andrade has accomplished in her MMA career, which includes a UFC title, and we’ve yet to see Silva face anyone of elite status. In fact, two of her previous opponents, Victoria Leonardo and Andrea Lee, are a combined 1-9 across their last 10. It’s also worth pointing out that Araujo has dropped three of her last four, so it’s not outrageous to suggest that Silva has been given a few layups over the last two years.
“This is my opportunity,” Silva told reporters at the UFC Vegas 97 media day (watch it here). “I can do this. Jessica is a good name in UFC, and I needed to accept this opportunity and show my skills, my work. Now I am here to fight against Jessica. I trained for three rounds, but if I have an opportunity to finish the fight, I will take it.”
“A victory against Jessica will give me a new opportunity,” Silva continued. “I know I can fight for the belt and a victory against Jessica will give me an opportunity for this. Every fight that I go into I see as an opportunity to fight for the title. I see an opportunity to show my skills, show my hard work and going into the fight with Jessica, that’s how I approach it. But I think this is an opportunity for me for a higher goal, which is to be a champion.”
I haven’t seen enough from Silva to confidently pick her over Andrade. That said, this fight will be contested at flyweight and “Bate Estaca” does her best work at 115 pounds. The former champ will be giving up three inches in height and three inches in reach against a younger, fresher opponent who boasts 91% takedown defense. Still, I think Andrade can do enough (or at least be busy enough) to win two of the three rounds, assuming she doesn’t get flattened before she can get out of first gear.
Prediction: Andrade def. Silva by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 97 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 97 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card matchups which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
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