UFC Fight Night: Gastelum v Rodriguez — Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

This weekend (Sat., Oct. 12, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 98. After an eventful evening in France and pair of title fights in Salt Lake City, it’s time for another evening in the Apex. The big draw this time around is the main event, a rare Flyweight highlight featuring Tatsuro Taira, possibly the best prospect at 125-pounds. He could earn a title shot if he defeats former title challenger Brandon Royval, who’s seeking a third chance against Flyweight kingpin Alexandre Pantoja.

Leading up to the main event is mostly action fighters and a few genuine prospects. Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

Middleweight: Brad Tavares (+154) vs. Jun Yong Park (-185)

Best Win for Tavares? Lorenz Larkin For Park? Albert Duraev
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Tavares’ chin is inconsistent
How these two match up: This should be a fun striking match.

Tavares has been on the UFC roster for 14 years now, far longer than anyone who watched his season on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) would likely have predicted. He made a surge towards the top in 2014 that ended at the hands of Yoel Romero, but since then, he’s fought consistently good competition and held his own.

The Hawaiian is an excellent low kicker with ironclad takedown defense.

Park is an action fighter to the core. The South Korean veteran’s takedown defense and grappling have come a long way in recent years, allowing him to spend more time pushing the pace on the feet and bloodying up his opposition. Opportunistic and violent, Park fights are almost always worth watching.

There’s only one question here: can Park hurt and overwhelm Tavares on the feet? He’s not going to take him down, and Tavares is the more technical range striker. Given time to work, Tavares will chew up his opponent’s lead leg, but it’s equally possible that Park works him to the fence and goes to town with combinations.

It’s hard to feel overly confident in Tavares given his history of getting hurt in fights, but I actually do lean towards the underdog here. Park is not an otherworldly power puncher like Gregory Rodrigues or Bruno Silva. I don’t know that he holds an athleticism advantage at all. At the very least, the two are physically similar enough that I think Tavares can get the calf kicks going and slow Park, who has yet to beat anyone as good or accomplished as the longtime Xtreme Couture product.

Prediction: Tavares via decision

Lightweight: Grant Dawson (-440) vs. Rafa Garcia (+330)

Best Win for Dawson? Damir Ismagulov For Garcia? Clay Guida
Current Streak: Dawson won his last bout, while Garcia has won his last two
X-Factor: It’s a big step up for Garcia
How these two match up: I don’t fully get this matchmaking.

Dawson remains a really quality Lightweight even after getting smoked by Bobby Green. His UFC record is 9-1-1 after all, and most of those victories came in similar fashion: excellent chain wrestling and dominating top control. Garcia, meanwhile, is just one fight above .500 after seven trips to the Octagon. He’s a perfectly decent wrestle-boxer, but he hasn’t shown much beyond that.

Is there a chance Garcia chins Dawson? Of course. Maybe his takedown defense is worlds better than we realize, and the one punch KO isn’t even his only shot. Dawson is defensively flawed standing, so there’s always the risk of an upset. That said, Dawson has dominated a better class of competition than Garcia, and he usually makes it look easy.

I don’t see why that changes here.

Prediction: Dawson via submission

Strawweight: Cory McKenna (+114) vs. Julia Polastri (-135)

Best Win for McKenna? Kay Hansen For Polastri? Patricia Alujas
Current Streak: Both women lost their last bout
X-Factor: Polastri is taking the fight on short-notice after an injury to Polyana Viana
How these two match up: This should be a high pace fight wherever it ends up.

Both women are comfortable on the feet and the floor. McKenna is typically the shorter fighter with the lesser reach, and she’s adjusted by throwing in combination and pushing the pace. Polastri maintains a high-volume herself but it usually isn’t long before she’s changing levels and driving for takedowns.

This feels like a fight that will be decided by the wrestling battle since both are well-rounded but prefer to go to the floor. In that realm, I give a slight edge to McKenna, who has pretty consistently been able to ground her opponents. In addition, McKenna has the advantage of a full camp, so a grueling wrestling match should ultimately favor her preparation.

Prediction: McKenna via decision

Welterweight: Daniel Rodriguez (-205) vs. Alex Morono (+170)

Best Win for Rodriguez? Li Jingliang For Morono? Donald Cerrone
Current Streak: Rodriguez has lost three straight, whereas Morono lost his last bout
X-Factor: Morono has sneaky power
How these two match up: Scrappy Welterweight veterans collide!

Rodriguez is better than his current streak indicates. He’s only lost to ranked fighters, and Kelvin Gastelum absolutely screwed him by missing weight and forcing the fight up to Middleweight. More relevant, Rodriguez remains a sharp counter puncher with solid takedown defense.

Morono is a wild card. He doesn’t look all that powerful, but his punches floor people fairly consistently. His takedown defense is downright bad, yet Morono is pretty consistently able to reverse opposition or catch them in submissions on the way down, so he rarely gets wrestled to a defeat.

I’ll confess: I thought Morono looked quite bad in his last fight against Niko Price, who hasn’t exactly been setting the world ablaze in recent years himself. Morono looked slow on the feet, hittable, and fatigued badly by the end of the fight. Rodriguez, conversely, still looks to be putting together fast combinations and maintaining his usual pace, he’s just been losing to really good fighters.

Even beyond recent circumstance, Rodriguez is the better boxer, and it doesn’t feel like Morono can take him down. The Texan will need a knock down or knockout to win this fight, and that feels like a less reliable path as his hands slow and he faces a durable slugger.

Prediction: Rodriguez via decision

Middleweight: Abdul Razak Alhassan (-155) vs. Josh Fremd (+130)

Best Win for Alhassan? Niko Price For Fremd? Sedriques Dumas
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Alhassan is 39 years old
How these two match up: I don’t expect this to last long.

Alhassan may be nearing 40, but he’s still a powerhouse. “Judo Thunder” rarely uses his grappling skill offensively, instead opting to chuck massive power shots until somebody falls down. Meanwhile, Fremd’s UFC career isn’t off to the best start. Six fights deep, I still have no idea what he’s supposed to be good at. We’ve seen him wrestled, picked apart, and strangled more than we’ve seen him land his own offense — that’s a hard way to make a living.

Could Fremd win this fight by virtue of being nearly a decade younger and fighting an opponent who gasses out more often than not? Of course. Without a consistent path to his own offense, however, that’s still a hard sell. Alhassan could melt him early, but even if this goes all 15 minutes, Alhassan could take the nod just with big swings and occasional calf kicks.

Prediction: Alhassan via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 39-28 (3)