UFC Fight Night: Font v Figueiredo — Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

This weekend (Sat., Oct. 19, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) remains inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 99. As we creep up toward the 100th event inside the Apex, I wonder what percentage of readers still scan the intro? Everybody has to know the deal by now. How could you not? That’s because 100 Apex events is like a 100 water droplets landing on the same spot of the skull: consistent and bound to leave an impression. The usual mix — a couple relevant fights, a handful of fun vets, and a bunch of recent Contenders Series alumni — will be throwing down on Saturday.

Hopefully, the fights will be fun. At worst, maybe there’s still money to be made. One way or another, let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

Bantamweight: Rob Font (+360) vs. Kyler Phillips (-470)

Best Win for Font? Cody Garbrandt For Phillips? Song Yadong
Current Streak: Font lost his last two bouts, while Phillips has won three in a row
X-Factor: How much does Font have left in the tank?
How these two match up: Fights between ranked Bantamweights usually deliver.

Font is a veteran scrapper. Known for his sharp jab and powerful one-two combination, Font is always game for a brawl and is comfortable in pushing a heavy pace. Phillips, conversely, might actually be a ninja. He moves really well, walking his opponents into huge combinations, high kicks, and takedowns with incredible fluidity.

This should be a showcase for Phillips, who’s in the process of breaking into the Bantamweight ranks a second time. Font is going to be significantly more foot slow, and its Phillips who has all the momentum. I don’t expect Font to be able to lay a glove of Phillips while he’s operating in “The Matrix.”

The fight could get interesting late. Phillips cannot maintain his own pace, because his run around and throw head kicks style is exhausting. Font, conversely, carries knockout power late into the fight and could capitalize on a fatigued Phillips standing in front of him.

The odds on the late rally don’t feel great though.

Prediction: Phillips via decision

Flyweight: Charles Johnson (-225) vs. Su Mudaerji (+185)

Best Win for Johnson? Joshua Van For Mudaerji? Malcolm Gordon
Current Streak: Johnson has won three in a row, while Mudaerji has lost his last two
X-Factor: Can Johnson drag this fight to the ground?
How these two match up: The Flyweights can be expected to throw down here.

Johnson has solid wrestling but generally uses it in reverse to keep the fight standing. When he’s able to succeed in that game plan, Johnson generally controls the flow of the fight with slick, rangy boxing. Mudaerji’s wrestling is a bit less consistent, but the Chinese athlete can crack! As one of the division’s larger and more athletic sluggers, Mudaerji has great timing on his straight punches and counter shots.

I actually think the odds are a little off here. Historically, Mudaerji is beaten by fighters able to consistently wrestle and hold him down (Matt Schnell craziness aside). That’s really not Johnson’s game on the whole, even if he occasionally lands takedowns. This is two strikers lined up to throw down, and both are going to be a little thrown off by the other being able to match their height and reach.

I actually slightly favor Mudaerji in a kickboxing match. He can match Johnson’s pace but exceeds him in power. “Inner G” is coming into his own and on the best win streak of his career, but he’s also been fighting lesser opposition than Mudaerji recently.

Bottom line: I expect a very competitive fight, the kind in which a single knockdown sways the judges.

Prediction: Mudaerji via decision

Bantamweight: Brady Hiestand (-155) vs. Jake Hadley (+130)

Best Win for Hiestand? Garrett Armfield For Hadley? Caolan Loughran
Current Streak: Hiestand has won three in a row, while Hadley rebounded in his last fight
X-Factor: Can Hadley’s defensive wrestling hold up at 135-pounds?
How these two match up: Bantamweight prospects are nearly as fun as Bantamweight contenders.

Hiestand impressed the hell out of me in his last win over Armfield. He pushed an absolutely ridiculous pace, kept up on the feet with a skilled boxer, and ultimately imposed his will on the canvas. It was a stellar showing from “Bam Bam,” who was the runner-up on his season of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF).

Hadley is coming off a great performance of his own. Hadley joined the UFC with some hype and a bit of arrogance, but he stumbled while establishing his footing. Last time out, his Bantamweight debut showed off a new level in his boxing, as he picked apart Loughran with absolute ease for three rounds on short-notice.

Despite Hadley’s coming out party, I still favor Hiestand. He just handled a talented boxer with heavier hands in Armfield just fine, and we haven’t seen Hadley’s takedown defense tested by a real 135-pounder. “White Kong” was grounded more than once at Flyweight, so it stands to reason a strong wrestler up a division could also give him real trouble.

Hadley has to land something massive or catch a submission to turn the tide. Otherwise, Hiestand takes the driver’s seat early and maintains control for 15 minutes.

Prediction: Hiestand via decision

Featherweight: Darren Elkins (+105) vs. Daniel Pineda (-125)

Best Win for Elkins? Mirsad Bektic For Pineda? Leonard Garcia
Current Streak: Elkins won his last bout, whereas Pineda has lost two straight
X-Factor: Both men have a lot of mileage
How these two match up: There will be blood.

Blood is a given in Darren Elkins fights; he bleeds if breathed upon too heavily. The grinding wrestler remains tough as an old shoe, however, and he’s actually won two of his last three despite being in the twilight of his career. Pineda is just a war-weary, but “The Pit” operates in a very different manner. He’s never won by decision, because the Texan goes so bloody hard in the first seven minutes that he either scores the finish, gets stopped, or collapses late in the fight.

Elkins has never been that difficult to hit, and Pineda’s right overhand and calf kick are still money even late in his career. That said, finishing Elkins is still a herculean task. Even if Pineda can stop the takedown early, it’s incredibly difficult to stop “The Damage” without getting too tired in the process.

More likely, Elkins guts through some early damage, wears his foe down, then chokes him out late.

Prediction: Elkins via submission

Flyweight: Matheus Nicolau (+160) vs. Asu Almabayev (-192)

Best Win for Nicolau? Manel Kape For Park? Zach Makovsky
Current Streak: Nicolau has lost two in a row, whereas Almabayev has won an incredible 16 straight (three in the UFC)
X-Factor: It’s a major step up in competition for Almabayev
How these two match up: A really good ranked match up outside of the top two fights? Incredible!

Nicolau may be riding a rough patch, but the Brazilian is a really gifted technician. Perhaps his issue lately has been relying too much on the counter punching when in fact his wrestling and jiu-jitsu are also excellent. Almabayev will likely force a more rounded game from him, because the Kazakh fighter is an absolute grinding wrestler. He’s non-stop in his chain wrestling and general output, and he employs the usual wrestling strategy of trying to drown his opponents in pace and pressure.

I don’t think it works this time.

Nicolau is historically extremely difficult to take down, and he enters this fight with a size advantage to boot. Almabayev is small for 125-pounds, which makes his wrestling dominance even more impressive but also less likely to work at the elite ranks. In general, it’s really hard to hold down the best Flyweights already, and strength is vital there.

Worse yet, Nicolau is the far better kickboxer and definitely hits harder. Almabayev is going to have to throw himself into the fire repeatedly to have a chance at wrestling, and it’s going to take a lot of attempts to actually ground Nicolau. It just doesn’t feel like a recipe for success, particularly since Nicolau will be hunting for reversals and counters of his own.

Historically, the way to defeat Nicolau is hit him very hard, and that’s just not Almabayev’s game.

Prediction: Nicolau via submission

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 41-31 (3)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 99 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 99: “Royval vs. Taira” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.