Chimaev Vs. Whittaker Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 308: Open Workout — Photo by Francois Nel/Zuffa LLC

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight talents Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev will collide this weekend (Sat., Oct. 26, 2024) at UFC 308 from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

How much is the word of Dana White worth? According to the UFC CEO, Sean Strickland’s rematch versus Dricus Du Plessis is set in stone, and Strickland is really banking on that being the case. Nobody else seems so certain, however. Chimaev — despite his frequent illnesses and the generally disappointing last few years — remains one of the most feared and exciting names on the roster. Whittaker’s current win streak is already better than Strickland’s own single victory, and destroying Chimaev’s unbeaten record would be a massive feather in his cap.

Booked for five rounds, the match up certainly feels like a title eliminator, particularly if the bout is exciting and/or features a violent finish. The former feels guaranteed, so let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Chimaev vs. Whittaker Betting Odds

Khamzat Chimaev victory: -200
Khamzat Chimaev via TKO/KO/DQ: +165
Khamzat Chimaev via submission: +240
Khamzat Chimaev via decision: +600
Robert Whittaker victory: +245
Robert Whittaker via TKO/KO/DQ: +380
Robert Whittaker via submission: +2500
Robert Whittaker via decision: +650
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Chimaev Wins

Khamzat is a force. He’s certainly one of the most physically gifted talents on the roster, capable of a first-round sprint that very few can match. Add excellent wrestling, dynamic submissions, and a shotgun right hand to the mix, and it’s not hard to understand how he’s run through so many quality fighters.

I agree with the odds makers about one thing: Chimaev probably needs a stoppage to win this fight, and fortunately, he’s an excellent finisher. To me, there are two likely paths to ending “The Reaper” early: the big right hand and the d’arce choke (or a combination of the two).

Subsequently, I’d like to see Chimaev’s early blitz be a dual-pronged attack. Whittaker is a hard man to take down, but it’s his scrambles back to the feet that are really exceptional. “Borz” should be hunting for the neck in those exchanges, trying to use Whittaker’s willingness to wrestle up against him.

If Whittaker does get up, Chimaev doesn’t have to reshoot endlessly and sabotage his own gas tank. Instead, he should take the initiative in immediately pressuring Whittaker to the fence and attacking in combination. Generally, fighters are immediately more vulnerable to punches after a heavy wrestling exchange, and Khamzat wants to ensure he’s the man capitalizing on such moments while still fresh.

How Whittaker Wins

Whittaker’s back-to-back-to-back victories over Derek Brunson, “Jacare” Souza, and Yoel Romero established him as an all-time great counter wrestler. It’s been quite a few years since the karate-boxer’s takedown defense has really been tested to that degree, however, so it will be quite interesting to see how the wrestling of an older “Bobby Knuckles” holds up here.

Ultimately, Whittaker wins this fight by avoiding massive damage and submissions early. I don’t care if Chimaev is no longer immunocompromised and has refrained from overtraining — those aren’t his only issues. The reason Chimaev gasses out in fights is because he’s a sprinter. His style isn’t built for long distance, and if he does pull back on the aggression, he would lose much of what makes him great.

Therefore, Whittaker has to be on his A game for the first two rounds. He has to be mobile and fast, feinting actively and braced for impact. Chimaev is going to force a car crash, and Whittaker has to protect his neck well when initially grounded. If he can keep the scramble going without getting strangled, the priority shifts to avoiding that fast right hand. Ideally, he’ll stick some side kicks or body jabs between Chimaev’s big bursts, but the overall goal for the first ten minutes is to avoid an ass-kicking.

When the fight grows long and “Borz” looks more human, Whittaker can go about imposing his technical kickboxing advantage.

Chimaev vs. Whittaker Prediction

Robert Whittaker is a seriously difficult style match up for “Borz,” who has yet to prove himself elite at 185-pounds.

The risk here is that Whittaker is 33 years old and has been in quite a few wars. Certainly, the Yoel Romero scraps and Israel Adesanya KO loss are factors to consider and could contribute to an early Khamzat knockout win. I do think, however, Whittaker’s loss to Dricus Du Plessis can be attributed to failing to match the rising champion’s hunger and intensity. Since then, Whittaker has clearly focused on getting back to that level of focus with great results.

In short, I still believe Whittaker is damn close to the top of his game. If that’s true — and there is no guarantee — then his technical advantages on the feet and the overall favorable style match up are enough to outlast the Chimaev barrage, and once the championship rounds get rolling, “Reaper” is poised to dominate.

Prediction: Whittaker via decision (+650)