UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento — Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

This weekend (Sat., Nov. 2, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada for UFC Edmonton. Free cards on the road are simply more fun. The top two fights of this card feature Top Five-ranked contenders and former champions, and there’s not an overly steep drop-off in quality beforehand. “The Black Beast” has never failed to liven up a card (okay, ONE time versus Francis Ngannou), and there’s even solid scrappers like Charles Jourdain and Jack Shore on the undercard.

It’s not a bad card! Let’s dig into all the co-main card fights leading up to the main event:

Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis (+150) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-180)

Best Win for Lewis? Francis Ngannou For Diniz? Karl Williams
Current Streak: Lewis won his last bout, whereas Diniz is 2-0 inside the Octagon
X-Factor: Lewis is on the back end of his career
How these two match up: One way or another, violence feels guaranteed.

Lewis is the most prolific knockout artist in UFC history, and he accomplishes his opponent’s unconsciousness in three ways. He either obliterates them with a huge haymaker, wild jumping strike, or by finding his way into top position and dropping murderous ground strikes.

Diniz, meanwhile, is an accomplished kickboxer still fairly new to MMA. A professional in the cage since just 2022, Diniz grappling defense is still developing, but he’s clinical and mean on the feet.

There are two obvious paths for this fight to go. On one hand, we’ve all seen Lewis get stranded at range and kicked for long periods of time. It’s not fun to watch, and it looks even less fun to experience. Conversely, Lewis hits stupidly hurt, and he’s grown more active with his offensive takedowns in recent years.

I actually lean towards the latter, because Diniz is so inexperienced in MMA. It’s one thing to decision Austen Lane and Karl Williams, but Lewis has been in the cage with the cream of the crop for a decade now. It’s a monster step up in competition, and Lewis only needs a single takedown to smash Diniz into dust.

“The Black Beast” ain’t dead yet.

Prediction: Lewis via knockout

Light Heavyweight: Caio Machado (-155) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+130)

Best Win for Machado? Kevin Szaflarski For Ribeiro? Bruno Lopes
Current Streak: Both are 0-2 in the UFC
X-Factor: Machado is moving down from Heavyweight
How these two match up: What is this slop doing on the main card?

Machado didn’t seem that outsized at Heavyweight, but perhaps this drop in weight will help him out. The Brazilian-by-way-of-Canada is a solid kicker, and he likes to use bursting combinations to gain the clinch and work knees. Sadly, he’s quite hittable in the process, though he boasts a solid chin. Ribeiro is a striker as well. He’s actually got the longer reach than the former Heavyweight and uses it well with a stiff jab, but he’s not the best in combination.

I don’t have particularly strong feelings about this fight. Both athletes are uninspiring grapplers with dangerous enough stand up despite some obvious flaws. Likely, we get an evenly matched kickboxing match. Between the two, I rate the overall potential of Ribeiro a bit more. He’s the more serious knockout threat and has faced a higher level of competition throughout his career.

I suppose that’s enough to back him here.

Prediction: Ribeiro via decision

Middleweight: Marc-Andre Barriault (-198) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+164)

Best Win for Barriault? Eryk Anders For Stoltzfus? Punahele Soriano
Current Streak: Barriault has lost two in a row, while Stoltzfus came up short last time out
X-Factor: Stoltzfus isn’t the most durable Middleweight
How these two match up: This should be a scrappy 185-pound contest.

Barriault is a gamer. “Powerbar” has quality kickboxing, solid defensive wrestling, and a deep gas tank. He has reasonable power but better durability, meaning his fights often end up being 15-minute slugfests. Stoltzfus, meanwhile, suffers from being a well-rounder. His jiu-jitsu is probably his best asset, but his wrestling and kickboxing are just decent, meaning he cannot always control where the fight takes place despite some technical skill everywhere.

Generally, Stoltzfus has been looking better as of late. He’s grown more confident in his stand up, and it’s creating better takedown entries. I’m still not sure it’s enough, however. Barriault remains the better striker by a fair margin, and his defensive wrestling is historically fairly sound.

Stoltzfus getting stuck on the feet and outworked feels like the most likely outcome.

Prediction: Barriault via decision

Welterweight: Mike Malott (-265) vs. Trevin Giles (+215)

Best Win for Malott? Mickey Gall For Giles? Roman Dolidze
Current Streak: Malott came up short last time out, whereas Giles has lost two straight
X-Factor: How does Malott respond from a difficult loss?
How these two match up: This should be a high-level scrap.

Malott enters following a devastating loss to Neil Magny in which he dominated about 13 minutes of the fight until a last-second rally from the longtime veteran stopped him. Despite the unfortunate ending, he did show off his primary skills in a big way: excellent range kickboxing, a slick clinch wrestling approach, and dangerous jiu-jitsu.

Giles started his career as a wrestler, but he’s largely developed into a boxer. Giles has a smart, rangy jab that can control exchanges well, though he also has a bad habit of winning fights until suddenly getting planted on the canvas by a big shot.

This feels like a great bounce back fight for Malott. Both men are quite technically skilled and fight with intelligence, but “Proper” is a much more deadly fighter. He’s far more likely to hurt his opponent and score huge momentum swings. He’s also the much better kicker, which is going to make it difficult for Giles to really fight behind his jab.

At some point, Malott is going to hurt Giles on lead or on the counter. The question is whether he follows it up with more strikes or that crafty guillotine choke …

Prediction: Malott via submission

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 42-34 (3)