Oliveira Vs. Chandler 2 Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 300: Oliveira v Tsarukyan — Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight standouts Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler will rematch this weekend (Sat., Nov. 16, 2024) at UFC 309 from Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.

People have deservedly given Chandler a ton of flak for wasting away on the sidelines in a seemingly endless pursuit of the Conor McGregor fight, but it’s great to have “Iron” back in action. The former Bellator kingpin isn’t at the height of his powers anymore and certainly hasn’t gotten younger after two years away, but Chandler appears to be in optimal shape and has proven himself a threat to anyone at 155 pounds. Oliveira, meanwhile, is coming off his first non-title loss in the last seven years, a split decision to rising contender, Arman Tsarukyan. Oliveira — 35 years of age himself — has to bounce back here to prove he’s still an elite Lightweight and serious title threat.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Oliveira Vs. Chandler 2 Betting Odds

Charles Oliveira victory: -270
Charles Oliveira via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Charles Oliveira via submission: TBD
Charles Oliveira via decision: TBD
Michael Chandler victory: +220
Michael Chandler via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Michael Chandler via submission: TBD
Michael Chandler via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Oliveira Wins

Oliveira is one of the greatest offensive fighters and top finishers in UFC history. His Muay Thai has developed over the years into a deadly force at every range, and his jiu-jitsu remains unmatched in its potency. Quite simply, the Brazilian is a special talent.

“Do Bronx” has a lot of ways to win this fight and one real way to lose it (getting bonked by Chandler). The danger comes in the first five minutes, but Oliveira is not a fighter who knows how to avoid fighting fire with fire. We cannot expect him to change himself 45 fights into his pro career, so once again, he has to be nastier than Chandler.

I’d like to see Oliveira try to avoid exchanging in the pocket without trying to be evasive. Instead, Oliveira can focus on his distance kicks, particularly his snappy teeps up the middle that wreak havoc on squat wrestlers. When Chandler tries to explode forward, Oliveira would probably be better off pushing forward as well and smothering his foe’s offense. That strategy could open up heavy clinch connections and mitigate the odds of being clipped at the end of Chandler’s punches while pulling away.

How Chandler Wins

Chandler is one of the most explosive Lightweights of all time. Chandler’s absurd power and speed at this stage of the game really goes to show what an athletic freak he was back in the day, as he’s still routinely hurting the best of the best at Lightweight. The problems have come when the finish doesn’t materialize fully, and his gas tank is no longer an asset.

Concerningly, this is a five-round fight. Were it only 15 minutes, I would be writing that Chandler actually has a path to the decision by managing his output between power punches and takedowns. With an extra ten minutes, however, it’s really hard to imagine a fatigued Chandler avoiding all the power strikes and submission attempts.

This is kill-or-be-killed.

Chandler understands that he’s lightning in the first frame, so he might as well make the most of it. A couple small adjustments could help increase his odds of the early KO, namely cutting off the cage and firing body-head combinations. If he does hurt Oliveira early, Chandler also has to do a better job of picking his shots and finishing the fight rather than getting wildly sloppy, which cost him in the first round against Dustin Poirier.

Oliveira Vs. Chandler 2 Prediction

Logically, there are only reasons to pick Oliveira. He’s younger, better, more active and won the first fight. I thought “Do Bronx” looked a bit slower than normal against Arman Tsarukyan, but he still gave the undisputed No. 1 contender a hell of a fight. Chandler, conversely, has been sitting out for two years and throws away winnable fights even at the best of times.

What makes this fight must-watch is that all logic will be thrown out the window immediately. This is going to be an absolute car crash, and either man could be asleep on the canvas within a couple minutes.

I’m still siding with common sense, but I don’t do so with any sense of confidence.

Prediction: Oliveira via knockout

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 309 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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