Rakhmonov Vs. Garry Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 296: Rakhmonov v Thompson — Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight talents Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Garry will collide this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) at UFC 310 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

As a fan of both Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura, I’ll confess that Rakhmonov vs. Garry still feels like the main event. Shavkat vs. Belal Muhammad was originally the headliner, after all, and it’s not like the undefeated Garry is a massive step down from the champion. More to the point, “The Nomad” has that special aura, pegged as a future champion almost since his Octagon debut. It’s hard to argue with 18 finishes in 18 wins, but Garry seems like a legitimate challenge to his undefeated record. Add in a bit of personal history and sparring drama, and this is about as intriguing as a non-title match up can be.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Rakhmonov vs. Garry Betting Odds

Shavkat Rakhmonov victory: -375
Shavkat Rakhmonov via TKO/KO/DQ: +240
Shavkat Rakhmonov via submission: +180
Shavkat Rakhmonov via decision: +275
Ian Garry victory: +295
Ian Garry via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
Ian Garry via submission: +3000
Ian Garry via decision: +650
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Rakhmonov Wins

Rakhmonov is so exciting because he’s an equally violent finisher on the floor and the feet. A large and physical Welterweight, Rakhmonov pushes a brutal pace and bullies opponents, breaking them down en route to usually quick finishes.

I don’t doubt that Rakhmonov can win this fight on the feet. He’s the bigger hitter, can match Garry’s range, and is much more vicious on the inside. Garry is likely to try to strand him at distance with kicks then counter his offense, but Rakhmonov is an excellent kicker himself and can build combinations into punishing clinch offense.

Still, it would be silly if Rakhmonov doesn’t mix it up with takedowns as well. He does his best wrestling against the fence and wants to close distance on “The Future” anyway, so a focus on ring-cutting will really pay off for the Kazakh star. If he can use kicks to interrupt Garry’s lateral movement, the Irish talent will end up forced to defend combinations or takedowns from close quarters.

Either way, Rakhmonov is in the driver’s seat.

How Garry Wins

Garry is really crafty for a fairly young prospect. He’s been a professional for just five years, after all, but he’s managed to develop a very smart Southpaw striking approach. When flustered by a slicker striker in Michael Page, Garry was able to switch up his usual approach with well-timed clinch takedowns and back takes.

It was intelligent work from the up-and-comer.

The odds are against him, but there is an avenue to victory for Ian Garry. He’s a sharp counter puncher, and though the “Shavkat has no defense!” cries are over-the-top, he is an aggressive fighter. Scoring so many finishes involves taking chances, and that means there is opportunity for Garry to land and change the course of the fight.

There are two adjustments Garry needs to make. First and foremost, Garry cannot be afraid to exchange with Rakhmonov. He doesn’t want to do it often, but Garry has to stand his ground often enough to be a legitimate threat in the pocket. Otherwise, Rakhmonov will be able to herd him into strikes and takedowns.

Linear shots feel like a major key as well. Side kicks to the knee, teeps up the middle, the intercepting knee — all these strikes can interrupt Rakhmonov’s offense before it begins, which is essential if Garry is to avoid being bullied.

Rakhmonov vs. Garry Prediction

There’s not a Welterweight on the roster I would pick over Shavkat Rakhmonov.

I’m not saying “Nomad” is untouchable. He’s a risk-taker, and it will eventually cost him. At the momentum, however, the 30-year-old finisher is at the absolute peak of his powers. He’s extremely skilled, very durable, and brutally effective in ending fights quickly. He puts opponents through the wood chipper time and time again — there’s a reason just two of his 18 foes have made it to even the third round.

Garry will have to absolutely spark Rakhmonov or fight perfectly for a very long time to score the upset. It’s much more likely that Rakhmonov works him over with kicks and knees, scores the takedown, and batters his foe into another tapout win.

Prediction: Rakhmonov via submission (+180)