Following the money: UFC 310 betting line movements tracker | Pantoja vs. Asakura | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 310 main event fighter Kai Asakura. | Photo by Zuffa LLC

UFC 310 is live this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements as we head to the T-Mobile Arena in Vegas for Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura.

UFC 310 happens this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. The pay-per-view (PPV) main card (see it here) features Alexandre Pantoja defending his title against newcomer Kai Asakura. The co-main is a Welterweight contender fight between Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.

The stacked card has plenty of great fights further down the card, too. The ESPN+-streamed PPV card also has Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov, Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie and Doo Ho Choi vs. Nate Landwehr.

And there’s plenty to get excited about on UFC 310’s “Prelims ,” too.

You’ll find names like Michael Chiesa, Clay Guida and Chris Weidman down there. There’s also Aljamain Sterling vs. Movsar Evloev.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 310 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 310 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

UFC Hall of Fame 2024 Induction Ceremony — Alexandre Pantoja is looking to defend his title for a second time at UFC 310.

Alexandre Pantoja (-261 -3.1%) vs. Kai Asakura (+215 +7.5%)

Vegas has Alexandre Pantoja pegged as a decent sized favorite for this fight and the public seems fine with that. We’ve had minimal movement on the champion’s line and the challenger’s underdog odds have grown a little.

Kai Asakura is making his UFC debut here. He’ll be in a cage he’s not familiar with, at a weight he’s not got a long track record with. And he’s fighting under a different rule-set, too. That’s a lot of adjustments for him. Expecting him to handle all that and beat Pantoja is a big ask, in my opinion.

UFC 303: Pereira v Prochazka 2 — Ian Machado Garry wants to spoil Shavkat Rakhmonov’s title chances at UFC 310.

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-389 -7.1%) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+296 +20.5%)

Ian Machado Garry opened at +215, but the public have faded him and we’ve seen that grow by over 20 percent. That’s no surprise, really. Both he and Shavkat Rakhmonov are undefeated. However, Rakhmonov has been running through opponents, whereas Machado Garry — lately — has been skirting by them.

The public were right about Machado Garry in his last fight, versus Michael ‘Venom’ Page. In that fight he opened at -105. But the public liked him in that match-up and got his line down to -182. Machado Garry would go on to beat Page, though not in terribly impressive fashion.

If the public are right about Machado Garry this weekend, he’ll be handed the first L of his pro career.

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich v Volkov — Alexander Volkov heads into UFC 310 on a high.

Ciryl Gane (-368 -11.5%) vs. Alexander Volkov (+283 +24.8%)

Ciryl Gane opened at -240 and Alexander Volkov opened at +188. The public thought those odds were way too close, though. They’ve gone all in on the favorite here, making the odds on this fight pretty far apart. That’s good news for me! I like Volkov in this fight and think he can repeat what he did against Serghei Pavlovich (as a similarly large underdog). I also have concerns over how long Gane has been on the sidelines.

UFC 296: Emmett v Mitchell — Bryce Mitchell needs a win at UFC 310.

Bryce Mitchell (-820 -7%) vs. Kron Gracie (+548 +25.9%)

Vegas has this as a big mismatch. The public thinks it’s a huge mismatch. Kron Gracie opened as a +380 underdog, but that has ballooned to over +500.

Anyone who watched his last fight, against Charles Jourdain, is likely to bet against him here. That was a year ago and it looked like Gracie didn’t want to be there. To date he hasn’t shown us much of a desire or killer instinct inside the cage. Bryce Mitchell, for all his faults, at least fights like he wants to be here.

UFC Fight Night: Choi v Algeo — Doo Ho Choi looked like the Korean Super Boy of old last time out.

Nate Landwehr (-135 +7.3%) vs. Doo Ho Choi (+111 -4.3%)

Vegas and the public agree that this is a pretty close fight which slightly favors Nate Landwehr. I agree with that, too. I think this has Fight of the Night written all over it and we could see some scintillating exchanges before one man gets caught on the chin and goes down.

The slight edge to Landwehr, in the eyes of the bookies, is probably due to his more well-rounded game. I also agree with that and think he could expose Choi’s takedown defense.

UFC 310 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

UFC Fight Night: Reyes v Jacoby — Dominick Reyes comes into UFC 310 off the back of a big win.

Anthony Smith (+273 +19.6%) vs. Dominick Reyes (-353 -6.3%)

Anthony Smith opened as a +200 dog, but that has gone up quite dramatically. His last fight wasn’t a very good look — a tepid sparring match against late replacement Roman Dolidze (a former training partner).

Dominick Reyes, on the other hand, looked great last time out. He ended his losing skid by ending Dustin Jacoby with a brutal knee. Recency bias might be why we see the odds so much in Reyes’ favour. On paper there’s not much between these two title challengers so I’m a little surprised the odds are so disparate.

I think Reyes will probably win, but I doubt he walks through Smith (who is only a year older than him, by the way).

UFC Fight Night: Gorimbo v Price — Themba Gorimbo beat Niko Price in his last fight.

Vicente Luque (+129 -20.1%) vs. Themba Gorimbo (-157 +14.3%)

Vicente Luque’s line is very interesting.

He opened at +175, but public money has seen that shrink to +129. This means Themba Gorimbo’s line has gone the other way. He was a healthy -250 favorite at opening, but that’s shrunk down to -157.

I’m not in line with the public here. I think Luque’s best years are behind him and that Gorimbo’s striking and pressure game will be too much for him.

UFC 297: Allen v Evloev — Movsar Evloev meets a former UFC champion at UFC 310.

Aljamain Sterling (+195 +5.1%) vs. Movsar Evloev (-242 -1.5%)

The odds on Aljamain Sterling and Movsar Evloev aren’t so different from when they opened. However, there was some interesting activity involving both fighters over the past week.

On November 29, Sterling’s line jumped up to +213. On December 2 Evloev’s line sunk down to -272. Neither of these blips lasted very long, though. Soon after these events their lines started moving back towards their opening odds.

UFC Fight Night: Jousset v Battle — Bryan Battle had a lot of fun in Paris in September.

Randy Brown (+180 +1.8%) vs. Bryan Battle (-223 +3.3%)

Not much line movement to speak of in this fight. The public seems fine with Bryan Battle being a slight favorite over the toughest opponent of his career to date. Part of that must be due to how he handled Kevin Jousset in Paris earlier this year.

There was a ping of activity on these lines on November 30. On that day some money must have come in on Brown. His line dipped down to +159 (and Battle’s went up to -196). That was quickly balanced out by other bets, though, bringing us back to their opening odds.

UFC 310 Early‘Prelims’ Line Movement

UFC 309: Jones v Miocic - Ceremonial Weigh-in — Chris Weidman and Eryk Anders will finally meet, at UFC 310.

Chris Weidman (-114 -6.5%) vs. Eryk Anders (-107 +5.2%)

All the line movement on this match-up happened when these two were due to fight at MSG a few weeks ago. For that fight Eryk Anders opened at -205 and Chris Weidman opened at +170. However, the public bet Weidman down to +105.

Vegas has taken that public interest into account with these lines. Weidman opened at +100, but has been bet down again to give him minus odds.

Personally, I’m not backing Weidman to win any fight at this stage of his career. But he might have some enduring popularity with some fans out there and that might be convincing them to back him.

UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC — Joshua Van has been in some fun fights in his short UFC career.

Cody Durden (+130 -4.3%) vs. Joshua Van (-158 +6.2%)

We haven’t seen a lot of movement on this fight. I’m a little surprised Joshua Van’s odds are as low as they are here. I don’t think he and Cody Durden are too far apart, skills wise. They both fight with a level of recklessness, too. That makes me feel like this is a pick ‘em fight.

UFC Fight Night: Ferguson v Chiesa — Michael Chiesa trades the analyst desk for the Octagon at UFC 310.

Michael Chiesa (-114 -17.2%) vs. Max Griffin (-107 +16.6%)

Michael Chiesa opened as the +120 slight underdog, but his odds have now dipped into minus territory. Max Griffin had opened with a pretty healthy -163 favorite line, but that’s now ebbed away to make him just -107. I’m with the public here. Chiesa is long in the tooth, but he’s not being fed to an up and comer in this match-up.

UFC Fight Night: Hooper v Borshchev — Chase Hooper looked superb in his last fight.

Chase Hooper (-1132 -5.1%) vs. Clay Guida (+693 +24.3%)

Poor Clay Guida.

He’s going into this fight 18-18 in his UFC career and tied on most losses with Jeremy Stephens and Andrei Arlovski. And I think, after Saturday night, he’ll have that record all to himself. Vegas and the public agree with me.

Guida opened at +500 for this fight. That’s grown by close to 25%. Guida’s odds have lengthened by over 27% in his last two bouts (both of which he lost).

UFC 303 - Co-op Live Arena — Lukasz Brzeski hasn’t shown much in his UFC career so far.

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-579 -2.4%) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+418 +7.3%)

Vegas has Kennedy Nzechukwu as a big favorite over Lukasz Brzeski and the public is with them on that. There hasn’t been much movement here. Plenty of folks probably liked the look of Nzechukwu in his heavyweight debut a few weeks ago. And anyone who looked up Brzeski’s UFC fights probably saw that he’s a hittable, and chinny, heavyweight who might struggle against Nzechukwu’s speed and power.

UFC Fight Night: Guida v Silva — The public think Clay Guida will get his 19th loss at UFC 310.

UFC 310 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 310:

Kron Gracie: From +380 underdog to +557 underdog (+26.9 percent) (A)
Alexander Volkov: From +188 underdog to +284 underdog (+25 percent) (A)
Clay Guida: From +500 underdog to +693 underdog (+24.3 percent) (A)
Ian Machado Garry: From +215 underdog to +298 underdog (+20.9 percent) (A)
Vicente Luque: From +175 underdog to +129 underdog (-20.1 percent) (C)
Anthony Smith: From +200 underdog to +273 underdog (+19.6 percent) (A)
Michael Chiesa: From +120 underdog to -110 favorite (-17.2 percent) (B)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 2-17.*

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 7-6.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-4.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 3-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-1.

*The only winners in this group was Jesus Aguilar who submitted UFC debutante Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305 and Mateusz Rebecki who beat Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 308.

UFC 310 Press Conference — Alexander Volkov, and his side-parting, head to UFC 310 this weekend.

UFC 310 Best Underdogs Bets

I’m on the Alexander Volkov train for this event. I think he could use his straight right to give Ciryl Gane some issues, like he did to Serghei Pavlovich last time out. The only other underdog I like on this card is Cody Durden — I think his takedowns could cause Joshua Van troubles.

A lot of the other big underdogs are fighters I won’t touch at UFC 310. The public has thrown some support behind Vicente Luque, but I think Themba Gorimbo is a really bad match-up for him.

The underdogs in our main and co-main aren’t too interesting to me. There’s too many question marks over Kai Asakura’s transition to the Flyweight/UFC for me. And I think Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Welterweight champion in waiting (and Ian Machado Garry won’t do anything to change that).

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 310 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 310: “Pantoja vs. Asakura” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.