UFC Tampa Best Betting Props, Parlays And Picks

UFC Tampa is on tap this weekend (Sat., Dec. 13, 2024), featuring top-ranked Welterweight contenders Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley in the main event. Checkout the odds for that clash of styles (and much more) right here.

UFC Tampa goes down this weekend (Sat., Dec., 14, 2024) inside Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. The ESPN2/ESPN+-streamed main event will have former interim Welterweight champion, Colby Covington, returning to face hungry up-and-comer, Joaquin Buckley. This event was supposed to feature Buckley versus Ian Machado Garry. However, after Garry stepped up to meet Shavkat Rakhmonov last weekend (where he gave a very good account of himself), Covington was drafted in to make up the numbers (despite him wanting that Shavkat fight).

The co-main event has Cub Swanson taking on Billy Quarantillo. UFC Tampa’s main card also has Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva and Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos.

Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar will headline the “Prelims” undercard, which will showcase some decent prospects, too. Joel Alvarez will take on Drakkar Klose and Sean Woodson will meet Fernando Padilla.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Covington vs. Buckley” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Tampa Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Colby Covington (+240) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-300)

The last time we saw Covington he was well handled by Leon Edwards for a 49-46 unanimous decision loss. That was on Dec. 16, 2023 … he’s been blissfully silent ever since.

Until this week.

The loss to Edwards dropped Covington to 2-3 in his last five fights. His other losses were to Kamaru Usman (including this jaw-breaking knockout). His wins were against Jorge Masvidal (in a snoozefest) and to Tyron Woodley (because of a rib injury — though Covington was on course for a decision win).

Buckley has been far more fun to track lately. After an up-and-down first few years in UFC, which included his famous knockout over Impa Kasanganay (see it here — can you believe this was four years ago?), Buckley has hit his groove. He’s on a five-fight win streak, which was punctuated by a knockout win over Stephen Thompson at UFC 307 in October (see it here).

Over that run, Buckley has also finished Vicente Luque (see it here) and Andre Fialho (see it here).

This is an obvious “Wrestler vs. Striker” match-up. So, the big question is whether Covington has enough left in the tank to pin Buckley down and prevent him landing his big shots. I think that’s a tough ask for Covington, especially since Buckley will have a four-inch reach advantage and will likely be throwing bombs at him from the get-go.

A prime Covington would be able to duck those shots and find takedowns every time. A 36-year-old Covington might struggle, though. And if he’s off, he might eat an uppercut or headkick as he comes in. And I do think Buckley is going to throw headkicks (even though you shouldn’t do that against a wrestler).

Buckley’s takedown defense is pretty good, too. He’s stuffed 69 percent of the attempts against him. That includes all three of the takedowns attempted by Luque (53 percent career accuracy).

Buckley’s power in his strikes makes up for his terrible accuracy. He’s only 36 percent on significant strikes. When he does land, though, his shots have the potential to end fights or at least take the energy, focus and spirit out of his opponents.

I don’t think Buckley is a major player at Welterweight, but I like him to finish the year with a big stoppage over Covington. Maybe that’s just wishful thinking, though.

Vegas certainly thinks Buckley can finish Covington. He’s just +140 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. He’s +165 to win by decision. The round total on this fight is a quite conservative at 4.5. The under is +105 … and I like that a lot.

Best bet: Under 4.5 rounds (+105)

Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images

Cub Swanson (+135) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-160)

Swanson comes to Tampa on the back of a losing “Fight of the Night” effort opposite Andre Fili at UFC 303. Swanson has been going win-lose-win-lose since 2020. Notable wins in that stretch include a technical knockout over Darren Elkins (see it here) and a knockout of Daniel Pineda (see it here).

Quarantillo, meanwhile, was submitted by the surging Youssef Zalal in March (see it here). That followed a decision win over Damon Jackson and a knockout loss to Edson Barboza (see it here).

Quarantillo lands an astonishing 7.36 significant strikes per-minute, with a 56 percent accuracy. The oddsmakers seem to think that will be too much for a 41-year-old Swanson to handle … and I agree.

Fili landed 67 of 147 significant strikes against Swanson. That’s 45 percent and well above Fili’s career 37 percent accuracy. In Swanson’s last win against Hakeem Dawodu, he let Dawudo land 95 of 176 significant strikes. That’s 53 percent and marginally above Dawodu’s career 50 percent accuracy. Jonathan Martinez landed 60 percent of his significant strikes against Swanson. His career accuracy is 49 percent.

I think the picture these numbers paint is that fighters are able to land their expected offense against Swanson and potentially land more shots than they usually do. If Quarantillo is able to land at his usual clip, or higher, I just don’t see Swanson being able to match that in a meaningful way.

Swanson has only been finished by strikes three times in his career. That’s, frankly, amazing, given the quality of opponents he’s fought over the past two decades. Those losses are a leg kick technical knockout to Martinez, a body kick against Giga Chikadze, and that famous flying knee from Jose Aldo.

Quarantillo might elect to go to the body of Swanson, thus avoiding his iron chin. That won’t be foreign for Quarantillo. Against Jackson, he landed more shots to the body than he did the head (49 vs. 45).

Swanson being so hard to finish has odds that Quarantillo wins by (technical) knockout set at +240. I’m quite tempted by that given Quarantillo’s bodywork in that Jackson fight. However, for my best bet, I’m just sticking with the moneyline and my expectation that Quarantillo will keep Swanson at arm’s length and win a fun boxing match on the scorecards.

Best bet: Billy Quarantillo moneyline (-160)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Manel Kape (-380) vs. Bruno Silva (+280)

Kape vs. Mokaev might have been one of the worst fights of the year. Given all the ferocity in the build-up, what we saw in July was very disappointing. The result, paired with the pre-fight antics, cost Mokaev his UFC career. Kape is still here, but at 4-3 in UFC, his likelihood of being an impact player at Flyweight seems to be ebbing away.

Silva stopped Cody Durden with an uppercut, after starting slowly, in July (see it here). That has Silva on a four-fight finishing streak, with wins over Tyson Nam, Victor Rodriguez and JP Buys. I don’t think any of those previous opponents are still in UFC, but I’m still shocked to see Silva this big of an underdog against Kape.

Silva is a good, well-rounded fighter and he might be able to hang with Kape on the feet and score a takedown here and there. I do think Kape will win, but I don’t think he is good enough to totally out-class Silva.

You can get Silva +5.5 at -125. I like that a lot. I also over 2.5 at -195 and think that could be good to use in some parlays. Ultimately, I think this is going to a decision. Kape probably wins, but I think there’s a chance Silva continues his winning streak (but not his finishing streak).

Best bet: Exact method of victory – Decision (-165)

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Vitor Petrino (-320) vs. Dustin Jacoby (+250)

Both these guys probably want all the footage of their last fights burned.

Petrino was a massive favorite against Anthony Smith in Rio de Janeiro earlier this year. He responded to that by gift wrapping his neck in the first round and letting Smith guillotine him (see it here).

Jacoby, meanwhile, was a big favorite against Dominick Reyes, too. He even got a video package at UFC Louisville. However, he was blitzed by Reyes and lost in the first round (see it here) for only the second (technical) knockout loss of his long career.

I don’t want to trust either of these guys with my money. I’m just going to hope for a fun and nutty fight that ends in a highlight.

Best bet: Exact method of victory – KO/TKO/DQ (-135)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Adrian Yanez (+180) vs. Daniel Marcos (-220)

Yanez might have saved his UFC skin in May with a first round technical knockout win over Vinicius Salvador. That came after losses to Jonathan Martinez and Rob Font. He had been undefeated (5-0) in UFC up until that point.

Marcos is perfect (16-0). Since coming off Contender Series in 2022, the Peruvian has finished Saimon Oliveira and earned decisions over Davey Grant and John Castaneda.

Marcos’ boxing has looked very sharp lately, including when he knocked down Castaneda. His striking is a lot cleaner than Yanez, who can be a little wild. The difference in their striking accuracy (52 percent vs. 41 percent) tells the tale of Marcos’ technical superiority in this category.

Yanez won his last fight after his opponent over extended and walked right into a counter shot. I don’t expect Marcos to do anything similar (his striking defense is 63 percent).

Marcos should be able to out-land Yanez and ride out this fight to a decision.

Best bet: Daniel Marcos to win by decision (+165)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Navajo Stirling (-800) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+475)

City Kickboxing’s Stirling might be a very good fighter. He’s 6’4” with a massive 82.7-inch reach. He stopped Phillip Latu on Contender Series in September.

Tokkos, who hails from England, looked like a “banter fighter” in his short notice loss to Oumar Sy in May. In that fight, he was mugging for the camera and chatting with those at cageside instead of defending a rear-naked choke. That was his UFC debut. Coming in on short notice has earned him a fight with another big prospect (and probably his walking papers after that).

Stirling via (technical) knockout is just -185. I think that’s how he wins this and I think it will be quick, too.

Best bet: Navajo Stirling to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+200)

UFC Tampa ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Michael Johnson (-210) vs. Ottman Azaitar (+175)

Johnson beat Darrius Flowers by decision in February. That fight came almost one year after he was brutally KO’d by Diego Ferreira (see that here). Johnson is 38 with a UFC record of 14-15. He’s giving Clay Guida a run for most losses in UFC history (Guida beat him in 2021, by the way).

Azaitar, meanwhile, has been out for 1.5 years. His last fight was a 2023 spinning elbow loss to Francisco Prado (see it here). One year earlier, he lost via technical knockout to Matt Frevola (see it here). Since signing with UFC in 2019, he’s only made it to the Octagon four times.

Johnson was 38 in June, while Azaitar was 34 in February.

At his best, Johnson beats the best version of Azaitar. At his best, Azaiter beats a 38-year-old Johnson. With neither men at their best, I’m leaning toward Johnson just because he’s done and seen so much more in the sport than Azaitar.

Johnson by (technical) knockout is +140 and that’s tempting. It shows how bad the bookies think Azaitar is. Further proof of that is that you can get Azaitar +5.5 with most sportsbooks and he’s just -115 with that prop.

This is just an awful fight. I’m torn between thinking Azaitar is so terrible that he can’t last a round and that Johnson is so past it (and damaged from years of tough losses) that he won’t be able to get the finish.

Johnson hasn’t finished a fight since 2022. So, I’ll go for the decision (and higher odds).

Best bet: Michael Johnson via decision (+275)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Joel Alvarez (-475) vs. Drakkar Klose (+340)

I’ve been very impressed by Alvarez. He sliced through a very tough Elves Brener in his last fight in August. He scored a third round technical knockout win due to knees and ground and pound and earned a Performance of the Night bonus (see it here). That followed his d’arce choke win over Marc Diakiese. He’s also got finishes over Thiago Moises, Alexander Yakovlev and Joe Duffy (remember him?). His only UFC losses are to Damir Ismagulov and Arman Tsarukyan (who finished him in the second round — see it here).

Klose is a solid veteran who beat Joaquim Silva by decision in May. Prior to that, he beat Joe Solecki with a slam knockout (see it here). Klose beat Silva due to grinding against the fence, but took a lot of damage in the fight and was almost finished in the third round.

I don’t think he’ll escape this fight with his consciousness intact, though.

Alvarez has a seven-inch reach advantage over Klose. He’s also five inches taller. Alvarez is especially dangerous at submissions from a standing position, including guillotines and d’arce chokes. Against the smaller Klose, those could be a big factor. His knees in the clinch could also be dangerous due to the size difference. Either way, though — Alvarez should get the finish in this fight.

The total rounds is set at 1.5. I think that’s a little too low, given Klose’s experience and toughness. The over is only -166, though. Alvarez is +275 to win via (technical) knockout and +165 to win by submission. I really think he’s going to get a d’arce against the fence.

Best bet: Joel Alvarez via submission (+165)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Sean Woodson (-170) vs. Fernando Padilla (+140)

Woodson is on a seven-fight undefeated streak (six wins, one draw). That stretches back to his one professional loss, a d’arce choke to Julian Erosa in his third UFC bout. His recent wins are a unanimous decision over Alex Caceres and a split decision over Charles Jourdain.

Padilla, meanwhile, is coming of a d’arce choke win over Luis Pajuelo (see it here) in March. He also has a knockout win over Julian Erosa … in somewhat controversial fashion (see it here). Padilla is 2-1 in UFC, with the loss being a unanimous decision to Kyle Nelson. On the regional scene, he lost to Spike Carlyle and Dan Ige.

Woodson’s herky-jerky style has served him well thus far. Though, it’s not especially easy on the eye. I wasn’t that impressed with his win over Caceres and I actually scored the fight against him. He was very casual in that fight, giving Caceres lots of time and space to land shots. Woodson landed hard strikes, but they were few and far between.

If he’s that lax against Padilla, he could be in trouble. That being said, I still favor him in this match-up. He has a reach advantage and he knows what to do with it.

Padilla lands a ton (6.48 significant strikes per minute), but also absorbs a lot, too (5.25 significant strikes per minute). Woodson has good striking defense (58 percent), so I think he will stay out of range and chip away toward a decision win.

Best bet: Sean Woodson via decision (+100)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Miles Johns (+210) vs. Felipe Lima (-250)

Lima made the most of his short notice UFC debut in July. “Jungle Boy” came into his fight against Muhammad Naimov and showed the kind of form that had made him such an exciting watch in OKTAGON, BRAVE and the Brazilian regional scene. He scored a third round submission and earned a Performance of the Night bonus that night (see it here). He’s a high octane athlete with plus striking and grappling who could be ranked by the end of 2025.

It’s unclear what the best weight class is for him. He made his name as a Bantamweight, but took the Naimov fight at Featherweight. This fight with Johns is also at Featherweight, despite Johns being a long-time Bantamweight.

Johns was waiting for a Cody Garbrandt fight that never came for the latter part of the year. He’s 2-0 already in 2024, though, with decision wins over Cody Gibson and Douglas Silva de Andrade.

After beating up on senior citizens (by MMA’s standards), I think Johns might struggle with the speed of Lima. Lima will also have a slight reach advantage. Johns doesn’t have the wrestling game to switch things up if the striking battle is not working for him. I think Lima will have the freedom to choose if he wants to throw hands (and jumping knees) at Johns or grapple it out.

I think he gets the finish here. The only line available on most sportbooks is moneyline, though.

Best bet: Felipe Lima moneyline (-250)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Miranda Maverick (-650) vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (+425)

This booking feels a little rushed. Jamey-Lyn Horth just competed last month, taking a mediocre split decision win over Ivana Petrovic. That made her 2-1 in UFC.

Maverick, meanwhile, is 7-3 in UFC and on a three-fight win streak with decision victories over Dione Barbosa and Andrea Lee and an armbar against Priscilla Cachoeira. She’s only ever lost to good fighters in the Octagon (Jasmine Jasudavicius, Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber).

She should be far too good for Horth to handle. Maverick has two stoppages in UFC (both submissions), but she’s mostly a “decision fighter” (and her division is a “decision division”). I think she’ll get 30-27 across the board against Horth. I’ll take her minus the points, which still wins if she snatches up a submission.

Best bet: Miranda Maverick -3.5 (-165)

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Davey Grant (-110) vs. Ramon Taveras (-110)

Grant (who was coached by Ronda Rousey on TUF) turns 39 next week. He’s coming off a split decision loss to Daniel Marcos. Prior to that, he beat fellow veterans Raphael Assuncao and Louis Smolka, both by stoppage (see his inverted triangle on Assuncao here). Before that, he lost to Adrian Yanez and Marlon Vera.

Grant has some good wins on his record (including this knockout over Jonathan Martinez), but his best days are well behind him.

The 30-year-old Taveras’ Octagon debut was, officially, a technical knockout loss to Serhiy Sidey. He was knocked down by Sidey, but the technical knockout stoppage was incredibly early. After that, he pounded out Cortavious Romious in the first round, also on Contender Series. That earned him a spot at UFC 297 in a rematch with Sidey, which he won by split decision.

This is a close fight.

Tavares is primarily a striker. Grant has never been stopped with strikes, which is pretty impressive considering how long he’s been around for and who he has fought. I think Grant probably takes this, but I’m most confident in the fight going to a decision. Grant has plenty of finishes, but I’m not sure he can still pull those off at this age (against a man 10 years younger).

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-125)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Josefine Knutsson (-235) vs. Piera Rodriguez (+190)

Knutsson remained undefeated after getting a unanimous decision over Julia Polastri. She’s now 8-0 with two UFC wins following her successful stint on Contender Series. Knutsson is known for her Muay Thai. However, she’s yet to wow us on the feet. Against Polastri, she used some entry-level wrestling to compliment her striking and earn the win.

Rodriguez is 9-2. She won on Contender Series in 2021 and followed that up with victories over Kay Hansen and Sam Hughes. Since then she’s gone winless (0-2). She was submitted by Gillian Robertson last year (see that here). In May, she lost via disqualification for intentionally headbutting Ariane Carnelossi (see that here).

Despite committing one of the biggest bonehead moves of 2024, Rodriguez has been given a chance to fight a top prospect in Tampa. And I think she’s got great shot of beating her.

Rodriguez completes 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes. She has a successful takedown in each of her five UFC contests. She took Sam Hughes down five times (on 11 attempts). Hughes has a 60 percent takedown defense.

Knutsson’s takedown defense is 57 percent on paper. But, her wrestling skills aren’t that good. She’s faced seven takedown attempts during her short UFC career. The only successful takedowns were from Polastri (who took her down on each of her three attempts). The missed takedowns came from YeDam Seo and Isis Verbeek, two women whose ceilings are losing on Road to UFC and Contender Series.

You can get points on the underdog Rodriguez and that’s where I’m going for my best bet.

Best bet: Piera Rodriguez +3.5 (-165)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC Tampa Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Tampa card …

Joaquin Buckley to beat Colby Covington by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1000)

I was shocked when Buckley finished Stephen Thompson last time out. I won’t be surprised this time around if he’s able to finish Covington. Pound-for-pound, he might be one of the hardest hitters in the promotion. There’s a good chance Covington has lost a step and that could mean Buckley is able to land something nasty on his chin. I think there’s a chance Covington is able to get Buckley down for the first two rounds, but then tires in the third and that’s when he shoots in and eats a shin on the way up from “New Mansa.”

Piera Rodriguez to beat Josefine Knutsson via submission (+1400)

Knuttsson has not lived up to her billing for me. Her takedown defense and ground game is untested, as far as I’m concerned. I believe Rodriguez is capable of taking her down and securing a submission (so long as she can keep her head!).

Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby – Fight to End in the 1st 60 Seconds of Round 1 (+1000)

Both these guys are coming off bad losses. They may want to try and erase the memories of those quickly. I think there’s chance either of these guys lands a huge shot during the first exchange of the fight.

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Tampa fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN2/ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Tampa: “Covington vs. Buckley” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.