Colby Covington is a controversial figure for more reasons than one.
Much of it is intentional, of course. “Chaos” is his nickname for a reason. The guy says and does outrageous things to keep his name in the headlines and — for many years — the title mix. He’s fought for the undisputed title three times, and the most recent shot against Leon Edwards solely because of name value built by bad press and grudge matches.
It was an awful fight. Hesitant to engage, Covington looked old, failing to rely on his historic strengths of wrestling and conditioning. I would never call it good will, but whatever aura and respect Covington had fostered as an athlete over the years was squashed when he absolutely failed to perform in a gifted title fight.
The “Rocky” mishap has left Covington in a fairly precarious position. At 36 years of age, he’s now the furthest thing from an A-side. He’s no longer in a position to pick and choose the biggest or most favorable match ups. Instead, he has to step up to the plate and deal with a fast-rising contender in his prime.
Let’s be clear: Joaquin Buckley is an extremely dangerous fight for Covington. “New Mansa” is not a perfect fighter, but he hits like an absolute truck and is incredibly dynamic. Even as a very small Middleweight, he was never easy to hold down. Subsequently, he’s swelled to nearly a 3-1 favorite.
Covington’s career management has also left him at a point where he’s really fighting for his Welterweight legacy as well. Despite a seven-fight win streak that saw him capture an interim belt in 2018, Covington is really without a signature win. Ending Rafael dos Anjos’ run towards Welterweight gold is a quality win, certainly, but his elite resume doesn’t go much further.
Tyron Woodley, Demian Maia and Robbie Lawler are all among the pantheon of great Welterweights, but the circumstances have to be considered. Covington fought them all as the younger man, while that previous generation was on their way out. In fact, Covington has only been the older man in three of his 16 UFC fights, and he lost two of ‘em.
If Buckley smashes Covington in short fashion, “Chaos” has left himself a legacy that will age poorly. He’ll have never beaten an elite contender at their peak. That’s the career outcome of far more fighters than not, but Covington actually was damn good. His bout versus Kamaru Usman proved as much … but they’re still losses.
It feels like simple fact that Covington’s career was mismanaged by the UFC, his team, and/or himself. In the last five years — which accounts for most of his prime years — he has competed just six times. Instead of using that peak period to face actual top contenders, he waited around in hopes of a title shot or lined up big fights against athletes who used to be really good like Woodley or Masvidal.
A win here could make up for a lot of lost time specifically because of all these knocks against Covington. Accepting Buckley on short-notice as a major underdog and derailing his momentum would be an undeniably baller move. Not only would it prove that Covington is still at the top of the pack, but it’s a quality addition to his overall Welterweight legacy.
High risk, high reward.
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