UFC Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum
Odds: (+120 Nelson /-150 Werdum )
Betting Pick: Nelson
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In the semi-main event, two very accomplished Heavyweight grapplers will go at it as Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum squares off against heavy-handed black belt Roy “Big Country” Nelson. Both of these guys have great submissions, although Werdum has a more impressive jiu-jitsu pedigree, but Nelson has surprisingly fast hands and a surplus of knockout power in his punches. Considering Nelson’s striking advantage and the fact that his huge bulk and quality ground game make him difficult to take down and control, this is going to be a very tough test for Werdum, who is coming off a loss and a long string of inactivity.
Fabricio Werdum is a very accomplished grappler whose jiu-jitsu experience translated very well to Mixed Martial Arts. His signature win was a shocking upset of the once-unbeatable Fedor Emelianenko, but in his last fight he was trounced by former Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem. Werdum is a world-class grappler and notoriously difficult to finish, but he is also something of a one-trick pony. His wrestling isn’t spectacular and his boxing is very rudimentary. Basically he depends on finding a way to get fights to the ground, regardless of the position, and then uses his jiu-jitsu to set up sweeps, escapes, and submissions. Against Nelson he might find that game plan difficult considering Nelson’s superior bulk, wrestling, and punching power.
Roy “Big Country” Nelson doesn’t look much like the prototypical athlete, but he has proven time and again that he is an effective and dangerous Heavyweight fighter. Far from being hampered by his massive gut, Nelson uses it as a weapon to pin opponents down and smother them from the crucifix position, where he is absurdly dominant. Nelson is a solid wrestler with decent technical boxing, very heavy hands, and great submissions, mainly from top position. Against Werdum he will probably only look to use his wrestling defensively, since he has the technique and power to manhandle Werdum on the feet and will probably prefer to press his advantage there.
They say styles make fights, and the style matchup here is not very favorable from Werdum. He is facing a better wrestler with great jiu-jitsu of his own with all the tools to manhandle him on the feet. I don’t think Werdum is going to be able to force this fight to the ground consistently, and on the feet Nelson will play target practice with his head because of his shoddy footwork and defense. Werdum should hang around for a decision, but I think Nelson clearly outpunches him to take all three rounds. Nelson by decision.
Prediction: Roy “Big Country” Nelson by Unanimous Decision.
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