UFC Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
Odds: (-300 Shields /+230 Akiyama )
Betting Pick: Shields
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In a featured Welterweight bout, former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields will look to recover from a two-fight skid against K-1 Hero’s veteran Yoshihiro Akiyama, who has dropped three in a row. Shields was once considered the best fighter in the world outside of the UFC, but has had an extremely rocky start to his UFC career, barely scraping by Martin Kampmann before getting destroyed by Welterweight champ Georges “Rush” St. Pierre and Jake Ellenberger in his last two outings. With both guys riding losing streaks in one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions, a win here is crucial for both men if they want to stay employed, much less assert themselves as legitimate players in the title picture. Despite their recent mixed results, both of these guys have versatile and dangerous skill sets, and with the added pressure of their losing streaks, this has the makings of an extremely competitive bout.
Yoshihiro “Sexyama” Akiyama, with his good looks and exciting, fight-finishing style, made himself one of the most popular fighters in Japan. He entered the UFC riding an 11 fight win streak, but has gone an extremely disappointing 1-4 inside the Octagon. Akiyama is an aggressive fighter with good judo throws from the clinch, solid boxing with good punching power, and effective submission offense. Against Shields it would be extremely inadvisable for him to try to turn this into a ground contest, because it is unlikely that he will be able to effectively take Shields down and, more importantly, because Shields’ submissions are way better than Akiyama’s defense. On the feet he will enjoy an advantage in speed, technique, and power, and if he wants to avoid another consecutive loss, he would be well served to try and stay on the outside and use his striking to keep Shields at bay. It’s worth noting that this is Akiyama’s first time fighting at 170 pounds, which could either mean that he will be even more effective because of his size advantage and because his power will translate better, or that he will struggle with the cut and suffer in the cardio and strength departments.
Jake Shields is one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the world at 170 pounds. A skilled wrestler as well, Shields is extremely good at getting fights to the ground, controlling opponents from top position, and setting up his ridiculously good submissions. His striking isn’t awful, but it is very rudimentary and he lacks any kind of real punching power. He can hold his own and defend himself, but his boxing is not going to strike fear into anyone’s heart, to put it mildly. Shields’ gameplan against Akiyama will be the same as it is against anyone: he will look for the takedown early and often and try to impose his will. Akiyama is a good grappler in his own right, but he doesn’t have what it takes to hang with Shields in an extended ground war, so if Shields can get his wrestling going early on he will be in a great position to reverse his fortunes and get a win here.
I don’t think this is a particularly favorable matchup for Akiyama. He will enjoy a striking advantage, but I don’t think that he has what it takes to keep Shields from taking him down and controlling this fight from top position. Despite getting triangle choked by Chris Leben, Akiyama actually does have fairly good submission defense, so he should be able to hang around for the judges’ decision, but I think Shields controls the pace and positioning for a relatively easy unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Jake Shields by Unanimous Decision.
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