UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
Odds: (-500 Dos Santos / +350 Mir )
Betting Pick: Dos Santos
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In the main event of the evening, newly-crowned UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos will face a stern challenge in his first title defense as he faces off against former Heavyweight champ Frank Mir. Dos Santos’ striking is superlative in every way. His speed, technique, and power are all unmatched in the Heavyweight division, and no one he has faced has been able to withstand the punishment he can dole out with his hands. Mir, though, is easily one of the Heavyweight division’s most versatile fighters, with dangerous punching power of his own and the most effective submission game in the division. Dos Santos has never had to face an opponent with as many tools or as many ways to finish fights as Mir has, so this is a very tough test for him in his first attempt at defending his title. There is no doubt that, as dangerous as Mir’s heavy-handed punching can be, dos Santos will eat him alive if this fight plays out largely on the feet, but “Cigano” has yet to have his ground game sorely tested, and if Mir can find a way to get him on his back he is going to be in a world of trouble, which makes this a very compelling main event.
Frank Mir, the former UFC Heavyweight champion, has had one of the most interesting career arcs in the history of the sport. He cemented himself as UFC’s premier Heavyweight with his potent ground game before seeing his career, and his life, nearly cut short by a brutal motorcycle accident. Slowly but surely, though, he worked his way back up to the top of the ladder, and grew into a formidable striker while he was doing it. Now, he is one of the UFC’s most dangerous Heavyweights, able to finish fights with his vastly improved boxing and his world-class submissions, which are dangerous from a whole host of positions. The only notable hole in Mir’s game is his wrestling, which was never very good and got even less effective when he suffered his back and leg injuries. On the ground, Mir is more than a match for anyone in the world, but he is not overly effective at forcing fights to the mat, and tends to be satisfied with standing and boxing with his opponents instead of forcing the issue. Against dos Santos, that strategy would be reckless in the extreme, and Mir is going to have to find a way to get himself out of “Cigano’s” line of fire.
There is no question whatsoever that Junior dos Santos is the most prolific striker in the history of the UFC’s Heavyweight division. His punching is fast, pinpoint accurate, and utterly devastating in its power. Since arriving in the UFC, he has completely demolished everyone in his path. He has continually stepped up in competition, and he has handled those steps up easily. Mir, though, represents a new sort of challenge for dos Santos. The only professional loss dos Santos ever suffered was by submission, and his ground game has yet to be tested in his UFC career. If he has to work off his back against Mir, he is going to find himself in a huge amount of trouble. If his mentor, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, couldn’t stop Mir from submitting him, I really don’t like dos Santos’ chances.
This is a very interesting matchup. Mir, although he is known as a grappler, also has very powerful striking, and dos Santos trains with the Nogueira brothers, which means he almost certainly has more of a ground game than he has shown. That said, there is no question to me that dos Santos will destroy Mir in a standup fight and Mir will make dos Santos tap if this fight plays out on the ground for any period of time. The question, then, becomes whether or not Mir has what it takes to force dos Santos to his back before he gets pasted. My best guess would be no. If skilled wrestlers like Cain Velasquez and Roy Nelson couldn’t ground dos Santos, I don’t think Mir is going to be able to either. Mir has shown a willingness to stand and trade with strikers, and usually he is good enough to hold his own, but dos Santos is on another level and it is only a matter of time before Mir gets caught and put to sleep. Dos Santos by T/KO.
Prediction: Junior Dos Santos by third round T/KO.
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