UFC Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
Odds: (-225 Nelson / +175 Herman )
Betting Pick: Nelson
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In one of the many Heavyweight showdowns being featured, heavy-handed veteran Dave Herman will meet Ultimate Fighter winner Roy “Big Country” Nelson in a matchup of two guys with serious striking prowess. Both of these guys have heavy hands and a willingness to let them go, but Herman is going to have to deal with Nelson’s wrestling, top control, and submission game as well. Herman is the scarier of the two in terms of raw punching power, but Nelson has power of his own and is deceptively athletic considering his keg-like frame.
Dave Herman, a veteran of Sengoku and EliteXC, is a very heavy-handed and dangerous striker who has been around the sport for a long time. While he does have some submissions, he is primarily a striker who tends not to use wrestling or grappling expect as a last resort. Against Nelson, a legitimate submission fighter, he would be foolish in the extreme to try and fight on the ground, because if he gets a takedown stuffed or gets swept, he is going to get destroy by Nelson’s top control game. If he can keep this fight standing, though, he always has a good chance to knock out anyone he is fighting, because his punching is seriously formidable.
Roy “Big Country” Nelson does not look like a prototypical fighter, but there is no way to deny his effectiveness. He may not be one of the best in the world at any one thing, but he has powerful boxing, solid takedowns, good top control, powerful ground and pound, and effective submissions. He is also extremely tough, having fought very good competition for years and only being finished once. The biggest problem with Nelson’s game tends to be his gameplanning. Anyone who has watched him for any period of time will tell you that his best work comes when he forces a ground fight and uses his bulk to control opponents from top position, but he tends to get too involved in standing and trading shots with his opponents, which has not worked out very well for him recently.
This is a tough fight to call, only because Nelson is so unpredictable. If he fights smart and works for takedowns, he has more than enough tools to control Herman utterly on the ground. If he obliges Herman in a standup fight, though, all bets are off. Herman has good striking technique and a ton of power, so if Nelson tries to box him he is going to be inviting trouble. In the end, though, I think the safe bet is Nelson and his superior versatility. Herman, as always, has a puncher’s chance, but I think Nelson just has too many ways to win this fight, and should be able to control the action for a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: Roy Nelson by Unanimous Decision.
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