UFC Heavyweight Bout: Antonio “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Dave Herman
Odds: (-335 Nogueira /+255 Herman )
Betting Pick: Big Nog
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In the semi-main event, heavy-handed slugger Dave Herman will look to halt a two-fight skid as he squares off against former PRIDE Heavyweight champion and Interim UFC Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. Both of these guys are coming off disappointing losses, but they both have dangerous skill sets and this is a very interesting style matchup that should produce a very entertaining fight. Nogueira has made a career out of taking savage beatings and then finding a way to pull off a miracle finish, but it looks lately as if years of intense punishment have finally caught up with him. Herman is more than equipped to deliver one of those savage beatings with his powerful striking game, but he has never had his ground game tested the way Nogueira can, and is in fact not nearly as technical or quick-handed in the striking as Nogueira is. This is a very compelling showdown between power and technique, and it should be interesting to see which of the two prevails.
Dave Herman is a long-time veteran who had stints in ShoXC, EliteXC, and Bellator before making his way to the UFC. There is no question that what Herman does best is let his hands go with brute force behind every punch. Herman is a consummate knockout artist, but he relies primarily on the raw power behind his haymakers to get the job done. Technique-wise, he is not a particularly accomplished striker. Even more troubling for a guy whose bread and butter is standing and trading huge shots, Herman’s chin has gone beyond suspect and is now firmly in the “bad” camp. Nogueira is not known as a knockout artist, but he does have some power, and his ability to consistently beat Herman to the punch on the feet could present problems for the big man. It would be foolish in the extreme for Herman to attempt to take Nogueira down, where he would be utterly outclassed, so Herman’s gameplan in this fight amounts to swinging for the fences and hoping he connects with a knockout punch.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a legend in the sport, but recently it appears as if his best days are definitely behind him. The durability that allowed him to pull off so many ridiculous come from behind victories seems to be a fading memory, but the one thing he still possesses is stellar technique, both standing and on the ground. Nogueira isn’t a huge power puncher like Herman, but he has very quick hands, great footwork, and accurate punching. On the ground, Nogueira is one of the most accomplished Heavyweight grapplers in the history of Mixed Martial Arts. This fight is going to come down to whether or not Nogueira can consistently get his punches off first, I think. He has more than enough hand speed and accuracy to outbox Herman, but if he lets Herman land big power punches, I’m not sure that his chin can hold up to the kind of punishment it used to.
This should be a competitive fight, but I think Nogueira has the slight edge. He has better footwork, better hand speed, and better technique, all of which should help keep him out of trouble in the standup. If this fight goes to the ground, I think Nogueira has a very clear advantage no matter who is on top. I expect Herman to land a few big punches, but Nogueira should be able to stick and move enough to control the pace, scoring enough points for a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Antonio Nogueira by Unanimous Decision.
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