We are less than one week away from the biggest heavyweight fight in MMA history, where the two baddest men on the planet will meet in the octagon for the second time to compete for the heavyweight title. Velasquez will attempt to be only the second fighter in UFC history to get his belt back from the man who took it from him via knockout. The highly anticipated fight main event has fight of the year written all over it, but UFC 155 is stacked from top to bottom. Saturday night will welcome the return of heavy hitters, Chris Leben and Todd Duffee, and four middleweight contenders are looking to make the statement that they are serious about a title shot. The fights will be hard to call, but you can bet that this event will be anything but boring.
Chris Cariaso vs. John Moraga
Moraga was relatively unknown in his UFC debut, but had a brilliant knockout performance over former Bellator Fighting Championship competitor, Ulysses Gomez. Moraga has finished seven of his eleven wins, five by submission and two by knockout, his only career loss came at the hands of the current UFC flyweight number one contender, John Dodson. Cariaso is riding a three fight winning streak, but he could easily be 1-2 in his last three fights had the judging gone a different way. He won a split decision over Vaughn Lee, and won a decision over Takeya Mizugaki, which is considered to be one of the most controversial judge’s decision of the year. Moraga is far more proficient in his striking and ground game than Cariaso and should enjoy the advantage anywhere the fight takes place. Cariaso doesn’t possess that power or aggression to stop the inevitable knockout that Moraga will deliver.
Pick : John Moraga
Leonard Garcia vs. Max Holloway
Any fight that Garcia is in has fight of the night written all over it. This striker vs. striker match up is sure to please the fans, and win a bonus award of some kind. Garcia will be throwing haymakers like a mad man relentlessly headhunting for the knockout. His exceptional conditioning allows him to exert insane amounts of aggression and energy in his striking, but because of this style, his pace tends to slow later in the fight. In his the fight against Justin Lawrence, it was Holloway’s conditioning that won him the fight after Lawrence started to fade in the third round. From there, Holloway was able to push the pace, and put together a combination that dropped Lawrence to get the stoppage victory. Garcia doesn’t pace himself as intelligently as Holloway, but the fight could end early if Garcia connects with one of his wild punches. Holloway possess the crisp technical striking that will allow him to counter the wide looping punches that Garcia throws, and this will be the deciding factor in this fight. Holloway is too intelligent a fighter to be sucked into a brawl with Garcia, and should be elusive enough to avoid his wild swinging punches. Look for Holloway to pick his shots, land cleaner, and be the overall fresher fighter throughout the entire fight. Garcia has a heck of a chin, and has yet to be knocked out in his professional MMA career, so this fight should go the distance with Holloway getting his hand raised.
Pick : Max Holloway
Philip De Fries vs. Todd Duffee
This is the easiest fight to predict on the card, I’m picking Todd Duffee by first round knockout. Duffee has gone 1-1 since being cut by the UFC over two years ago, but I can’t hold the loss against him seeing it was at the hands of Alistair Overeem, who could possibly be the next challenger for the UFC heavyweight belt. All seven of Duffee’s wins have come by knockout, with six ending in the first round, and four of those fights ending in under one minute. His loss to Mike Russow was arguably the biggest comeback in not just MMA history, as far as I’m concerned, Duffee’s only real loss was to Overeem, which is nothing to be ashamed of. De Fries doesn’t possess the striking skills to hold his own on the feet and Duffee is too strong to be taken down, so De Fries potential jiu-jitsu advantage won‘t place a part in this fight. Duffee has the power to put anyone to sleep and De Fries is no exception. De Fries will be overwhelmed by Duffee’s striking and this fight won’t see the start of the second round.
Pick : Todd Duffee
Erik Perez vs. Byron Bloodworth
Bloodworth is coming off a loss to Mike Easton, where he was finished in the second round. He hasn’t fought in over a year and it’ll be tough to get the momentum going to overcome Perez and his well rounded skills. Perez is riding a seven fight win streak and hasfinished his last two fights in the first round. In his fight against John Albert, he showed his submission defense as he fought his way out of a triangle choke and reversed the position to have Albert defending a armbar attempt. There was much controversy in the way the fight ended as Albert never actually verbally submitted, but nonetheless, Perez showed a never say die attitude, excellent submission defense, and good Jiu-Jitsu of his own. After knocking out Ken Stone in only seventeen seconds in his most recent fight, I’m confident that he will find a way to get the victory no matter where the fight goes.
Pick : Erik Perez
Michael Johnson vs. Myles Jury
How did Jury land this fight? Johnson defeated Shane Roller, Tony Ferguson, and Danny Castillo in his last three fights, while Jury defeated Chris Saunders in his official UFC debut. Why is Johnson not fighting someone like Edson Barboza or Rafael dos Anjos? I’m not saying Jury has a snowball’s chance in Hell, but Joe Silva certainly gave Jury an early Christmas present that will catapult his career if he ends up pulling off a win. Again, I’m not saying it’s impossible, but Jury will have his work cut out for him. Johnson is a superior striker to Chris Saunders and Al Iaquinta, the two fighters that Jury has fought. Johnson out struck Tony Ferguson, defended Danny Castillo’s takedowns, and defended Shane Roller’s submission attempts. His last three fights have showcased the epitome of well rounded. Johnson will have advantages of experience, speed, conditioning, and power; Jury simply won’t be able to match Johnson’s pace and best case senario, will go on to lose a decision.
Pick : Michael Johnson
Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner
It’ll be interesting to see how Guillard performs after being knocked out by “Cowboy” Cerrone at UFC 150. Prior to that fight, Guillard had never been knocked out, so this could potentially throw him off his mental game. Even though Guillard has come back from less than adequate performances to finish tough opponents, such as, Dennis Siver, Evan Dunham, and Shane Roller; having a strong performance after his first knockout loss will be his biggest challenge to date. Guillard’s strong points are obviously his striking and aggression, but Varner has solid boxing skills that he mixes with his wrestling, which he used to get the better of Ben Henderson and Joe Lauzon until he succumbed to a submission in both fights. Because the word jiu-jitsu probably isn’t even in Guillard’s vocabulary, Varner will take Guillard down at will and hold him there without any fear of being submitted. After seeing Varner destroy Edson Barboza, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to finish Guillard, but it’s more likely Varner out wrestles Guillard for all three rounds.
Pick : Jamie Varner
Brad Pickett vs. Eddie Wineland
Both these fighters are exceptionally well rounded and are coming off stellar knockout victories. The winner of this fight will have a strong argument to fight the winner of Renan Barao and Michael McDonald, or at least be next in line after Dominick Cruz. It’s difficult to say who has the superior wrestling, but I’m leaning towards Pickett. He out wrestled Demetrious Johnson and Damacio Page. Wineland and Urijah Faber were dead even in the wrestling at UFC 128, until Wineland started to fade in the second round and Faber was able to take over. Wineland was successful in knocking out Scott Jorgensen, but Jorgensen is primarily a wrestler. Pickett on the other hand, knocked out talented striker, Yves Jabouin, and went toe to toe with Renan Barao. The biggest deciding factor for me is the jiu-jitsu. Half of Wineland’s losses have been by submission while half of Pickett’s wins have been by submission. This fight is almost being set up for Pickett win by submission, and that’s exactly what I think will happen.
Pick : Brad Pickett
Chris Leben vs. Derek Brunson
Leben has to be eager to get back in the cage after his year long suspension. His time away from competing has me concerned that his performance could be hindered in this fight, but I’m betting he’ll be same the aggressive, heavy hitting fighter he was before his suspension. In his fight with Mark Munoz, Leben made it a very competitive fight and even took down the veteran wrestler. The fight was ultimately stopped due to a cut on Leben’s eyebrow that ceased his vision, but had the fight continued, no one knows what could’ve happened. Every extra second that goes by in a fight gives Leben a better chance to knockout his opponent. Brunson is a fairly well rounded fighter, but I was surprised when he was knocked out by Ronaldo Souza in forty one seconds, when Souza isn’t much of a threat on the feet. If Souza was able to catch Brunson, then you can be sure that Leben can do the same. If his time away from the octagon hinders his performance enough to prevent the knockout from happening, Leben will still win a decision by using his heavy hands and aggressive style.
Pick : Chris Leben
Alan Belcher vs. Yushin Okami
For me, this is the toughest fight to call on the entire card. This fight may be considered a striker vs. grappler match up, but both fighters have drastically developed on their secondary skills. Okami’s striking has improved leaps and bounds since his loss to Chael Sonnen, but has continued to improve, especially after his loss to middleweight king, Anderson Silva. In Belcher’s last fight, he practically challenged submission specialist, Rousimar Palhares, to a grappling match and came out on top. Both fighters should revert back to their primary styles in their fight with Okami being the better wrestler and Belcher having the superior striking. In order for Okami to implement his game plan, he will need to take Belcher down and use effective top control, something that Okami will have a heck of a time trying to accomplish. Belcher will be wise enough use his superior striking and footwork to avoid letting Okami initiate the clinch and work for a takedown. Belcher moves well and using angles in his kickboxing which will make Okami getting a hold of him more difficult and allow Belcher to score the significant points he needs to sway the judges decision in his favor.
Pick : Alan Belcher
Tim Boetsch vs. Costa Philippou
When Chris Weidman pulled out of the bout with Boetsch, Phillipou seized the opportunity to step in as a replacement. A victory over Boetsch will benefit him significantly more than one over Nick ring would, and could arguably put him within the top five of the UFC middleweight division. Philippou is riding a four fight winning streak over the likes of Jorge Rivera, Jared Hamman, Court McGee, and Riki Fukuda. He has looked impressive with his exceptional boxing and takedown down defense, and now he’s facing a step up in competition. Boetsch is 4-0 since dropping to middleweight, but under close examination, it becomes clear that his success hasn’t come without plenty of luck. Boetsch was completely outclassed by Yushin Okami for two rounds, but in the third round he caught Okami with big uppercuts that dropped him, and the ref had to intervene. His performance against Hector Lombard wasn’t all that impressive either. First off, I think Lomabrd should’ve gotten the nod in that fight, and Boetsch wasn’t showing any aggression until the final round. Luckily for him, Lombard didn’t look like his usual self that night and never landed any potential fight ending blows. If Boetsch allows Philippou to get comfortable with his striking, it will be lights out for Boetsch. Even if Boetsch comes out aggressive, Philippou’s excellent takedown defense will nullify Boetsch’s wrestling and he will land the more effective strikes in the exchanges. Boetsch‘s durability should get him through all three rounds, but Philippou will get the nod from the judges.
Pick : Costa Philippou
Joe Lauzon vs. Jim Miller
After his fights with Melvin Guillard and Jamie Varner, no fighter in the UFC lightweight division should be underestimating Joe Lauzon. He may only be a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu purple belt, but seventeen of his twenty two wins have been by submission. Lauzon utilizes a heavy Jiu-Jitsu style similar to that of advanced BJJ black belts. In addition to having good top control, he has the ability to submit any fighter off his back. Miller, who is BJJ black belt, has twelve wins by submission and combines aggressive wrestling to his style. Lauzon is not as talented a wrestler as Miller and will end up on the bottom when the fight hits the ground. Lauzon will use his active guard to muster up as much offense as possible, but the same the crafty moves that have finished Lauzon’s past opponents, won’t be enough to catch Miller. Miller has excellent top control that will stifle Lauzon’s Jiu-Jitsu and the judges will see Miller as the dominant ground fighter. Even for the moments that the fight stays on the feet, Miller will have the striking advantage, so no matter where this fight takes place, Miller will be comfortable. Because his Jiu-Jitsu is so good, I doubt Lauzon will be submitted, but he could very well succumb to a knockout in similar fashion to how Miller was able to finish Kamal Shalorus. Lauzon’s only real chance of winning is to catch Miller in a submission, which I don’t see happening. Even if Lauzon last the entire fight, Miller will go on to win a unanimous decision.
Pick : Jim Miller
Junior Dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez
Velasquez will have his work cut out for him as he attempts to be only the second fighter in UFC history to get his belt back from the man who took it from him via knockout. The only fighter in UFC history to successfully do so is Georges St-Pierre when he defeated Matt Serra at UFC 83. Carlos Newton, Randy Couture, Andrei Arlovski, Rich Franklin, BJ Penn, Frankie Edgar all have attempted the same, but were unsuccessful. Velasquez will have the advantage in most aspects of MMA, and has more than just a decent chance of recapturing the heavyweight title. The chin of the former champ can withstand plenty of punishment. In their first fight, it took Dos Santos three overhand rights that connected until he was able to stumble Velasquez, which set up the stoppage. Velasquez has the superior wrestling, and has the gas tank to go all five rounds. Whether or not the same can be said for the current champ is questionable, but he’s always just one punch away from a knockout victory. In their first fight, Velasquez was out landing Dos Santos early in the fight, ending all his combinations with leg kicks. If Velasquez can be as aggressive as he was against Antonio Silva, he will get Dos Santos down and rain down massive ground and pound that can potentially end the fight. Dos Santos’ best chance of success is to land flush with a big right hand, which will much harder to pull of the second time around. Velasquez will use much better head movement and footwork to insure that he won‘t suffer the same fate as last time, increasing his chances for victory either by TKO via ground and pound, or unanimous decision.
Pick : Cain Velasquez
– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek