Renan Barao will defend his interim belt against Michael McDonald to determine who will be facing Dominick Cruz to unify the Bantamweight title. When the two fighters square off, blah blah blah if you don’t already know this, why are you reading? Enough with the pre fight banter, let’s get down to the nity grity and get to the predictions.
Phil Harris vs. Ulysses Gomez
Gomez was far from impressive in his fight with John Moraga. His striking was mediocre at best, and he was unable to implement his Jiu-Jitsu game. Harris is difficult to take down, and even while in the guard of a proficient Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, he is difficult to submit. Harris has heavy hands, which are more deadly over an opponent who lacks skills in the stand up. Gomez will try will all his might to get the fight to the canvas, but Harris will overpower him with his striking and finish him in the first round.
Pick : Phil Harris
Vaughan Lee vs. Motonobu Tezuka
Lee is still one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He has proficient Jiu-Jitsu skills, even off his back, and he possesses crisp striking. Tezuka on the other hand, has very little striking and focuses solely on the ground game. He will shoot in for a leg and endlessly try to get his opponent down, seeing he doesn’t stand a chance on the feet. Tezuka has finished fights by submission, but most of his recent fights have gone to a decision. He gassed out rather quickly in his last fight against Alex Caceres, but the fact that he took the fight on short notice may have been the reason. Lee has the more diverse grappling game, but even if their grappling is dead even, Lee has light Tezuka up with his boxing.
Pick : Vaughan Lee
Tom Watson vs. Stanislav Nedkov
Watson lost a close split decision to Brad Tavares in his last fight, while Nedkov was submitted by Thiago Silva. My initial edge goes to Nedkov based solely on the fact that Silva is light years ahead of Tavares in skill, and Nedkov won the first two rounds in that fight. If Brad Tavares was able to get Watson down, then Nedkov will be able to do the same for sure. Watson will make it a close fight with his striking, but Nedkov will do enough to win a decision.
Pick : Stanislav Nedkov
Andy Ogle vs. Josh Grispi
Two years ago, Grispi missed at title shot by the skin of his teeth. Since then he has lost three straight fights, and I fail to see any aggression in him at anymore. Ogle on the other hand, always comes to bring it. His well rounded skills make him comfortable wherever the fight goes, and his cardio is always up to par. Grispi possess proficient Jiu-Jitsu, but Ogle’s wrestling will nullify and submission attempts, and if Grispi tries to stand with Ogle, he will be in a world of trouble. It’s essentially a win-win for Ogle.
Pick : Andy Ogle
Paul Sass vs. Danny Castillo
Like all of his fights, Castillo will try to take his opponent down, but that will play right into Sass’ game. He came so close to getting the submission in his last fight, but instead, it was Sass who got submitted. Nevertheless, twelve of Sass’ thirteen wins came via submission, and this fight will be a déjà vu of Sass’ fight with Jacob Volkmann.
Pick : Paul Sass
Terry Etim vs. Renee Forte
Etim hasn’t fought for over a year, but in his last fight with Edson Barboza, he was arguably up two rounds before getting caught with the crazy spinning head kick. I was surprised with the speed, wrestling, and striking of Etim against such a potential prospect. Ultimately, he lost the fight, but I see no reason that he shouldn’t find success against Forte. He’ll be the quicker fighter with far superior striking, especially with the significant reach that he will have in this fight. Even if Forte goes for a leg on a takedown, Etim has been known to counter with the guillotine choke, and often gets the tap.
Pick : Terry Etim
Che Mills vs. Matthew Riddle
Mills has been susceptible to submissions, but only by those who are well versed in Jiu-Jitsu. In his fight with Rory MacDonald, Mills was landing more punches on the feet, but MacDonald was able to take him down, which lead to the TKO via ground and pound. Riddle will not have the wrestling to take Mills down, or have the striking skills to compete with him on the feet. If a technical striker like Duane Ludwig fell short against Mills, I don’t see how Riddle will stand any chance.
Pick : Che Mills
James Te-Huna vs. Ryan Jimmo
I’m looking over this fight quite carefully, especially after Jimmo’s seven second knockout of Anthony Perosh. Jimmo is a second degree black belt in Shito-ryu karate, and holds a victory over former world kickboxing champion, Rick Roufus. Several of his victories didn’t come without controversy, as fans and media members commented on how Marvin Eastman and Sokoudjou should’ve gotten the decision over Jimmo. Furthermore, Jimmo credited his victory over Wilson Gouveia to Gouveia‘s lack of conditioning. Te-Huna’s only loss in the UFC came at the hands of Alexander Gustafsson; the current number four light heavyweight in the world. He has devastating power in his hands, especially his uppercuts, which he used to finish three of his opponents. Jimmo’s seven second knockout would have been much more impressive had it been over an opponent who wasn’t such an amateur striker. Going toe to toe with a heavy hitter like Te-Huna is far more difficult than striking with Anthony Perosh, and a full fifteen minutes is more than enough time for Te-Huna to land some of those jaw breaking uppercuts.
Pick : James Te-Huna
Gunnar Nelson vs. Jorge Santiago
There was a time where Santiago was considered to be among the middleweight elite, but now he trying his luck at welterweight. Assuming the weight cut goes well, he’ll still have proficient Jiu-Jitsu and good striking, but Nelson will have him beat in both categories. Nelson is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie, and has a perfect 10-0 MMA record, with seven wins by first round submission. He competed in the 2009 IBJJF World Jiu-Jitsu Championship and Pan American Championship for Gi, no-Gi, and open weight; winning either the gold or silver medal. As if his ground game wasn’t a threat enough, Nelson is also a black belt in Goju-ryu Karate. Both fighters have wins by knockout as well as submission, but if anyone is getting finished in this fight, it’ll be Santiago.
Pick : Gunnar Nelson
Jimi Manuwa vs. Cyrille Diabate
Diabate has a nice reach advantage, but he doesn’t always utilize it. Anthony Perosh, Tom DeBlass, and Chad Griggs have all been able to get on the inside of Diabate’s reach, and this fight won’t be any different. Manuwa is 12-0 in his professional MMA career, winning eleven fights by knockout, TKO, or doctor stoppage. Diabate might be the more technical striker, but not by much, and it will be the power and aggression of Manuwa that will win him this fight, bringing him to 13-0.
Pick : Jimi Manuwa
Cub Swanson vs. Dustin Poirier
For me, this is the hardest fight to pick a winner. Both fighters are top ten in their weight class and fairly well rounded, but the striking and power of Swanson is too much to overlook. Swanson won all three of his fights in 2012 by knockout, beating tough opponents like George Roop, Ross Pearson, and Charles Oliveira. Poirier hasn’t had the best luck while striking with his opponents. Jonathan Brookins isn’t exactly known for his striking, but he caught Poirier with several heavy shots, that would’ve put his lights out if those punches had come from Swanson. Even when Poirier wins, he is tagged with more than just a few strikes, and all Swanson needs is one brief opening to end a fight.
Pick : Cub Swanson
Renan Barao vs. Michael McDonald
Although his win over Miguel Torres was impressive, McDonald really only has a puncher’s chance in this fight. Barao is a much more technical striker and is proficient at keeping fighters on the outside with his kicks. Anyone who can pick apart Urijah Faber in the manner he did, can at least win a decision over McDonald, if not finish him.
Pick : Renan Barao
– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek