Introducing MMAMoneyLine “Hot Links”

Just want to let everyone out there about a new feature on MMAMoneyLine. On the main page, I’ve hyper-linked the best available odds for each card directly to the sports book. You can see the best odds are now underlined as well as highlighted. Although this change is fairly small, it is […]

Just want to let everyone out there about a new feature on MMAMoneyLine. On the main page, I’ve hyper-linked the best available odds for each card directly to the sports book. You can see the best odds are now underlined as well as highlighted. Although this change is fairly small, it is something to make your browsing experience easier.

Before you ask, yes…these links are affiliate links (some people have a problem with not knowing that beforehand). Since MMAMoneyLine needs funding to operate, affiliate partnerships are major revenue sources.

Going forward, I am going to take steps to make your browsing experience as simple, thorough and helpful as possible. Hopefully when MMAMoneyLine’s 1 year anniversary rolls around this upcoming June, the site will be better than ever!

James Irvin’s Weight Change

Due to the reaction on the ‘net of James Irvin’s dramatic weight cut, I decided to do a little side by side comparison. Here is a little collage comparing James Irvin over three weight classes: Heavyweight against Mike Kyle at UFC 51 in 2007, Light Heavyweight against Luiz Cane at UFC 79 and […]

Due to the reaction on the ‘net of James Irvin’s dramatic weight cut, I decided to do a little side by side comparison. Here is a little collage comparing James Irvin over three weight classes: Heavyweight against Mike Kyle at UFC 51 in 2007, Light Heavyweight against Luiz Cane at UFC 79 and Middleweight against Alessio Sakara at UFC On Versus 1.

Pretty big difference here, especially between 205 and 185. Judging from all the Irvin interviews I’ve seen in the last few weeks, he seems to be taking everything in stride. I still think he’s going to smash Sakara, but he might need a CLIF bar between rounds.

(Pictures courtesy of UFC.com)

UFC On Versus 1 Predictions

The first live UFC event broadcasted on Versus takes place Sunday, March 21st in Broomfield, Colorado.  UFC On Versus 1 features a Light Heavyweight main event pitting Brandon Vera against Jon Jones.  In the co-main event, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace Gabriel Gonzaga takes on Brazilian punch you in the face ace Junior dos Santos.
As always, […]

The first live UFC event broadcasted on Versus takes place Sunday, March 21st in Broomfield, Colorado.  UFC On Versus 1 features a Light Heavyweight main event pitting Brandon Vera against Jon Jones.  In the co-main event, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace Gabriel Gonzaga takes on Brazilian punch you in the face ace Junior dos Santos.

As always, I will only cover which fights have betting value.  UFC On Versus 1 gives us MMA bettors a range of interesting options.  If you have reviewed MMAMoneyLine’s Pros’ Picks for UFC On Versus 1, you already know that this card is a bit lopsided.  7 out of 11 fights are clean sweeps (100% for one fighter).  On the other hand, 3 out of the 4 fights that aren’t clean sweeps are practically coin flips.  Here is where MMAMoneyLine sees the value in UFC On Versus 1:  Vera VS. Jones


Junior dos Santos VS. Gabriel Gonzaga

The main arc in the build up to this fight is whether Gabriel Gonzaga can get Junior dos Santos to the ground, and what Junior can subsequently do there.  Both of these Brazilians have huge power on the feet, with dos Santos having the edge in technique.  Both guys have dropped fighters in an instant, using sound technique or otherwise.

In the Gonzaga/Carwin fight, Napao was able to land a hard cross to Carwin’s face that dropped him and broke his nose.  Shane Carwin used his wrestling in reverse and was able to catch Gonzaga with an equally as hard (if not harder) shot to end the fight.  Remember two things about this fight:  don’t discount a guy’s jaw because he got knocked out by Shane Carwin and don’t think Junior dos Santos is a Carwin-caliber wrestler.

If Gonzaga can clinch with dos Santos and use his size and strength to take him down or even wear him out, the fight tips in his favor.  We don’t know exactly what dos Santos is made of on the mat because we haven’t seen him there, but he is a BJJ brown belt.  Regardless, he’s not going to be as skilled as Gabriel Gonzaga even if he is far better than anyone thinks.

Don’t think this is an easy win for Gonzaga by any means.  Cigano is one of the deadliest strikers in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, and has destroyed two elite level strikers in his 4 UFC fights.  If Gonzaga thinks its a good idea to put his grappling on the backburner, his chin in trouble.

This fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest.  However, Gonzaga has a tendency to forget his BJJ and gas early in fights.  Because of these two points, plus the old adage of “every fight starts on its feet”, I like Junior dos Santos and his striking ability as the fight goes on.

My pick:  Junior dos Santos via TKO late in the 2nd

Betting play: Although I believe dos Santos takes this fight about 65% of the time, Gonzaga is the clear bet here.  Some sports books have Gonzaga under 30% to win, which is way off in my opinion.  Gonzaga is the bigger fighter and if this fight hits the ground, it drastically changes.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a conservative underdog play on Gabriel Gonzaga at +235 on Bookmaker.


James Irvin VS. Alessio Sakara

I’ll be honest, I’ve been looking forward to James Irvin’s return.  As unbiased as a reputable journalist or webmaster should be, I like James Irvin.  He is always involved in exciting fights (for good and bad reasons), owns up to his mistakes without making excuses and is a straight shootin’ type of guy.

With that being said, I think the UFC is doing him a pretty big favor here.  Alessio Sakara is the perfect opponent for James Irvin right now for 3 reasons:  he has no chin, he’s an out and out striker and this is Irvin’s first fight at Middleweight. Irvin has big time power that is still pretty fearsome even if he’s lost a bit with the weight cut.  He won’t have to worry about takedown defense either (c’mon, it’s Alessio Sakara).  But perhaps most importantly, the “Irvin’s gonna gas early because of the weight cut” or the “Irvin’s knees aren’t going to hold up” lines of reasoning don’t apply here.  The odds on 5Dimes of this fight going into the third round are +174…and that’s probably generous.

This fight is going to be quick and violent.  If Chris Leben could get Sakara to fold up, James Irvin (a converted Heavyweight) should have the power to do so as well.  Irvin also has that added incentive of showing his appreciation to Zuffa and co. for putting him back in a main card slot after an embarrassing loss and a positive drug test.  I feel good about this one.

My pick:  James Irvin via KO (superman punch) in the first

Betting play: Because of a few question marks, I’m going to temper my bet amount slightly.  However, MMAMoneyLine still likes a moderate bet on Irvin at -110 on 5Dimes.  The longer you wait to place this bet, the better.  A lot of money has been coming in on Sakara and there is a good chance that Irvin’s odds might improve.

 

Clay Guida VS. Shannon Gugerty

Clay Guida, a “Fight Of The Night” machine, finds himself on the UFC On Versus 1 undercard against Shannon Gugerty.  Guida has two strengths:  insane cardio and relentless wrestling.  He wins fights by attrition, doing more than the other guy to get a decision victory.  I’m not sure how well that strategy is going to work against Shannon Gugerty.

Gugerty has been pretty lukewarm in the UFC thus far, going 2-2 all by way of the submission.  He is a long and powerful striker with good wrestling and jiu jitsu.  Guida is actually a pretty good matchup for Gugerty.  Gugerty has a clear advantage standing up, competitive wrestling and no worries about his major weakness, submission defense, against a non-threat in Guida.  As far as the mental game goes, it must be a tough pill for Guida to swallow to be put back on the pre-lims against a thus far average fighter.

There’s a good chance that Guida does what he does best and get a workman’s like decision via raw, athletic talent.  However, Gugerty is being underrated here.  Don’t be surprised if we’re in for another close decision at the end of this exciting bout.

My pick:  Clay Guida via split decision

Betting play: Underdog special of the night is Gugerty.  At +335, he is absolutely a guy who could decision or submit Guida.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a small flier on Shannon Gugerty at +335 on SportBet.


MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Jones/TKO/3

dos Santos/KO/2

Kongo/TKO/2

Irvin/KO/1

Schaub/SUB/1

Guida/Split Decision

Howard/Unanimous Decision

Pierce/Unanimous Decision

Marshall/Unanimous Decision

Ludwig/TKO/2

Brilz/Unanimous Decision

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Gonzaga – .75 u. at +235

Irvin – 1.5 u at -110

Gugerty – .20 u at +335

UFC on Versus 1 Pros’ Picks

 

MMABettingBlog

WatchKalibRun

MMAConvert

MiddleEasy

MMAAdNet

MMAValor

MMAMafia

Total

 

Jon Jones vs.
Brandon Vera

Vera

Jones

Jones

Jones

Jones

Jones

Jones

Jones 86%

 

Junior dos Santos vs.
Gabriel Gonzaga

dos Santos

dos Santos

dos Santos

dos Santos

dos […]

 
Total
 
Jon Jones vs.
Brandon Vera
Vera
Jones
Jones
Jones
Jones
Jones
Jones
Jones 86%
 
Junior dos Santos vs.
Gabriel Gonzaga
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos
dos Santos 100%
 
Cheick Kongo vs.
Paul Buentello
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo
Kongo 100%
 
James Irvin vs.
Alessio Sakara
Irvin
Sakara
Irvin
Sakara
Irvin
Sakara
Irvin
Irvin 57%
 
Clay Guida vs.
Shannon Gugerty
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida
Guida 100%
 
John Howard vs.
Daniel Roberts
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard
Howard 100%
 
Chase Gormley vs.
Brendan Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub 100%
 
Mike Pierce vs.
Julio Paulino
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce
Pierce 100%
 
Vladimir Matyushenko vs.
Eliot Marshall
Matyushenko
Matyushenko
Marshall
Matyushenko
Marshall
Marshall
Marshall
Marshall 57%
 
Duane Ludwig vs.
Darren Elkins
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig
Ludwig 100%
 
Eric Schafer vs.
Jason Brilz
Brilz
Schafer
Schafer
Schafer
Brilz
Schafer
Brilz
Schafer 57%
 
Tiebreak
Jones/UD
Jones/TKO/2
Jones/UD
Jones/TKO
Jones/KO/2
Jones/UD
Jones/UD
 
Total
 

Sports Betting at the Sportsbook

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Season Odds

As usual, BetUS has posted odds for the upcoming season of The Ultimate Fighter.  Although the rumors of veteran fighters David Loiseau, Nick Thompson and Jason Lambert  turned out to be false, as did the intriguing possibilities of Robert Drysdale and Matt Major, this season should be fairly entertaining.
This season’s coaches, as you may have […]

As usual, BetUS has posted odds for the upcoming season of The Ultimate Fighter.  Although the rumors of veteran fighters David Loiseau, Nick Thompson and Jason Lambert  turned out to be false, as did the intriguing possibilities of Robert Drysdale and Matt Major, this season should be fairly entertaining.

This season’s coaches, as you may have heard, are Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz.  I’m interested to see Chuck’s coaching ability.  Judging from his last go ’round, Tito Ortiz should handle the coaching reigns very well.  This season will lead up to a future fight, possibly at UFC 115, between the two former UFC Light Heavyweight champions (contrary to recent reports of a Chuck Liddell/Rich Franklin contest in June).

As of the writing of this post, Kyle Noke is the favorite at +600.  This Jackson Mixed Martial Arts fighter holds victories over the surging George Sotiropoulos and Bellator Middleweight champ Hector Lombard.  A few other favorites are Josh Bryant, Costantinos Philippou, Kris McCray and Kyacey Uscola.  For more information on this season’s fighters, Sherdog has an excellent writeup on each mixed martial artist.

The Ultimate Fighter 11 debuts March 31st after UFC Fight Night 21: Florian VS. Gomi. Enjoy an MMA packed end of March!

WEC 47 Pros’ Picks

 

MMABettingBlog

WatchKalibRun

MMAConvert

MiddleEasy

MMAAdNet

MMAValor

MMAMafia

Total

 

Brian Bowles vs.
Dominick Cruz

Bowles

Bowles

Bowles

Bowles

Bowles

Bowles

Bowles

Bowles 100%

 

Miguel Torres vs.
Joseph Benavidez

Torres

Torres

Torres

Torres

Torres

Torres

Benavidez

Torres 86%

 

Javier Vazquez vs.
[…]

 
Total
 
Brian Bowles vs.
Dominick Cruz
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles
Bowles 100%
 
Miguel Torres vs.
Joseph Benavidez
Torres
Torres
Torres
Torres
Torres
Torres
Benavidez
Torres 86%
 
Javier Vazquez vs.
Jens Pulver
Vazquez
Vazquez
Pulver
Vazquez
Pulver
Vazquez
Vazquez
Vazquez 71%
 
Deividas Taurosevicius vs.
LC Davis
Taurosevicius
Taurosevicius
Davis
Taurosevicius
Davis
Taurosevicius
Davis
Taurosevicius 57%
 
Karen Darabedyan vs.
Bart Palaszewski
Darabedyan
Darabedyam
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan
Darabedyan 100%
 
Leonard Garcia vs.
George Roop
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia
Garcia 100%
 
Danny Castillo vs.
Anthony Pettis
Castillo
Castillo
Castillo
Castillo
Castillo
Pettis
Castillo
Castillo 86%
 
Scott Jorgensen vs.
Chad George
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen
Jorgensen 100%
 
Chad Mendes vs.
Erik Koch
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes
Mendes 100%
 
Ricardo Lamas vs.
Bendy Casimir
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas
Lamas 100%
 
Fredson Paixao vs.
Courtney Buck
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao
Paixao 100%
 
Tiebreak
Bowles/SUB/3
Bowles/TKO/3
Bowles/TKO
Bowles/KO/1
Bowles/TKO/3
Bowles/TKO/2
 
Total
 

Sports Betting at the Sportsbook