BELLATOR 44 – MAY 14, 2011

  BetDSI 5Dimes BetCRIS BetOnline BetUS Bodog Bookmaker SportBet SportsBook SportsInt.   Hector Lombard – – – – – – – – – – Falaniko Vitale – – – – – – – – – –   Patricky Freire – – – – – – – – – – Michael Chandler – – – – […]

 
 
Hector Lombard
Falaniko Vitale
 
Patricky Freire
Michael Chandler
 
Lyman Good
Dan Hornbuckle
 
Alexander Shlemenko
Brett Cooper
 

Best Odds Updated 4/21/11 12:55 PM EST

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Strikeforce Diaz VS Daley Best Bets

Strikeforce – Diaz VS Daley goes down tonight in Nick Diaz’s back yard of San Diego, California.  Two Strikeforce straps will be up for grabs as Nick Diaz takes on dynamite fisted Paul Daley for the Welterweight championship and Gilbert Melendez squares off against Tatsuya Kawajiri for the Lightweight belt. I’m going to keep this […]

Strikeforce – Diaz VS Daley goes down tonight in Nick Diaz’s back yard of San Diego, California.  Two Strikeforce straps will be up for grabs as Nick Diaz takes on dynamite fisted Paul Daley for the Welterweight championship and Gilbert Melendez squares off against Tatsuya Kawajiri for the Lightweight belt.

I’m going to keep this writeup short and sweet because, to be perfectly honest, there isn’t a whole lot to say about this card.  Make sure to check out MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Daley odds and Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Daley Pros’ Picks before throwing your hard earned money down!

Nick Diaz/Gilbert Melendez/Gegard MousasiMMAMoneyLine (-225/-225/-420 on BetUS)

The smart play for tonight’s card is a parlay with Nick Diaz, Gilbert Melendez, and Gegard Mousasi.  I’ve put a fair amount of thought into each of these fights and keep coming to the same conclusion:  the favorites and going to win and may very well be undervalued.

The dynamic Nick Diaz is facing a one trick pony in Paul Daley.  Can Daley’s one trick put Diaz asleep early?  Absolutely.  However, Diaz has very good boxing and is one of the toughest fighters in MMA.  In the mental aspect of the fight, Diaz has a huge advantage.  The UFC buyout of Strikeforce is probably the worst thing that could have happened to Paul Daley’s career.  Now, Daley’s boss is Dana White…a promoter who cut Daley after his cheap shot on Josh Koscheck and vowed never to have the Brit back in the Octagon.  Since the announcement, Daley has been all over Twitter bitchin’ up a storm over his precarious position.  On the flip side, Diaz has a ton of momentum, is a guy the UFC would love to have, and is fighting in/near his hometown in Southern California.  Diaz is a no brainer here to me under -250.

To be blunt, it is going to be hard for anyone to beat Gilbert Melendez.  He has shown fans everything:  wrestling, striking, toughness, resilience, stamina, consistency, etc.  I have a ton of respect for Kawajiri, but I’m still not sold on the quality of Japanese crossover talent.  Many American mixed martial artists who enjoy a strong wrestling base are able to stifle the Japanese MMA style and this point has been proven over and over again.  No reason it should be any different here, and anything better than -250 is a very good line for Melendez.

Aaaaaaand Gegard Mousasi versus Keith Jardine.  Jardine has pulled rabbits out of his hat before against Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, but I think he might be all out of surprises.  Everyone has caught on to his unconventional style, and Mousasi will simply outclass the former UFC Light Heavyweight tonight.

Go with a Diaz/Melendez/Mousasi parlay for tonight’s Strikeforce event…it is the best play.

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Diaz/SUB/4

Melendez/UD

Beerbohm/SD

Mousasi/TKO/2

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Diaz/Melendez/Mousasi – 2 u. on BetUS

Strikeforce Diaz VS Daley Pros’ Picks

  MMABettingBlog SBNationMMA MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAMoneyLine MMAValor MMAHive Total   Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley Diaz Diaz Diaz Diaz Diaz Diaz Daley Diaz 86%   Gilbert Melendez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri Melendez Melendez Melendez Kawajiri Melendez Melendez Melendez Melendez 86%   Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle Beerbohm Aoki Aoki Aoki Beerbohm Beerbohm Aoki Aoki Aoki 71%   […]

 
Total
 
Nick Diaz vs.
Paul Daley
Diaz
Diaz
Diaz
Diaz
Diaz
Diaz
Daley
Diaz 86%
 
Gilbert Melendez vs.
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Melendez
Melendez
Melendez
Kawajiri
Melendez
Melendez
Melendez
Melendez 86%
 
Shinya Aoki vs.
Lyle Beerbohm
Aoki
Aoki
Aoki
Beerbohm
Beerbohm
Aoki
Aoki
Aoki 71%
 
Gegard Mousasi vs.
Keith Jardine
Melendez
Mousasi
Mousasi
Mousasi
Mousasi
Mousasi
Mousasi
Mousasi 100%
 
Tiebreak
Diaz/SUB/3
Diaz/SUB/3
Diaz/UD
Diaz/TKO/4
Diaz/SUB/3
Diaz/SUB/2
Daley/KO/2
 
Total
 

Sports Betting at Sportsbook.com

BELLATOR 40 – APRIL 9, 2011

  BetDSI 5Dimes BetCRIS BetOnline BetUS Bodog Bookmaker SportBet SportsBook SportsInt.   Ben Askren -540 -535 -550 -515 -550 -675 -550 -535 -675 – Nick Thompson +390 +420 +400 +365 +375 +475 +400 +420 +475 –   Jay Hieron -355 -350 -345 -345 -400 -500 -345 -350 -350 – Brent Weedman +285 +290 +275 +270 […]

 
 
Ben Askren
-540
-535
-550
-515
-550
-675
-550
-535
-675
Nick Thompson
+390
+420
+400
+365
+375
+475
+400
+420
+475
 
Jay Hieron
-355
-350
-345
-345
-400
-500
-345
-350
-350
Brent Weedman
+285
+290
+275
+270
+300
+300
+275
+290
+275
 
Mike Chandler
-125
-125
-130
-130
-130
-135
-130
-125
-135
Lloyd Woodard
-105
+105
EVEN
EVEN
EVEN
+105
EVEN
+105
+105
 
Nathan James
-130
-125
-135
-130
-135
-135
-125
Tyler Stinson
EVEN
+105
+105
EVEN
+105
+105
+105
 

Best Odds Updated 4/7/11 6:18 PM EST

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BELLATOR 39 – APRIL 2, 2011

  BetDSI 5Dimes BetCRIS BetOnline BetUS Bodog Bookmaker SportBet SportsBook SportsInt.   Eddie Alvarez -450 -475 -450 – -550 -600 -450 -475 -600 – Pat Curran +350 +380 +350 – +375 +400 +350 +380 +400 –   Lyman Good -205 -185 -200 – -200 -180 -200 -185 -180 – Rick Hawn +165 +160 +160 – […]

 
 
Eddie Alvarez
-450
-475
-450
-550
-600
-450
-475
-600
Pat Curran
+350
+380
+350
+375
+400
+350
+380
+400
 
Lyman Good
-205
-185
-200
-200
-180
-200
-185
-180
Rick Hawn
+165
+160
+160
+160
+150
+160
+160
+150
 
Patricky Freire
-140
-130
-142
-140
-115
-142
-130
-115
Toby Imada
+110
+110
+112
+110
-115
+112
+110
-115
 
Ben Saunders
-600
-600
-625
-650
-600
-625
-600
-575
Matt Lee
+400
+450
+425
+425
+400
+425
+450
+375
 
Matt Veach
-135
-120
-130
-130
-130
-120
Rene Nazare
+105
EVEN
EVEN
EVEN
EVEN
EVEN
 
Greg Rebello
-125
-120
-130
-130
-120
Dan Cramer
-105
EVEN
EVEN
EVEN
EVEN
 
Mike Winters
-115
-110
-115
-115
-110
Ryan Quinn
-115
-110
-115
-115
-110
 
Dave Jansen
-185
-190
-205
-210
-190
-185
Scott McAfee
+155
+165
+165
+165
+165
+155
 
John McLaughlin
Blair Tugman
 

Best Odds Updated 3/31/11 9:02 PM EST

Sports Betting at Sportsbook.com

UFC 128 Pros’ Picks

  MMABettingBlog SBNationMMA MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAHive Total   Jon Jones vs. Mauricio Rua Jones Jones Rua Rua Rua Jones Jones Jones 57%   Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland Faber Faber Faber Wineland Wineland Faber Faber Faber 71%   Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus Miller Miller Miller Shalorus Miller Miller Miller Miller 86%   […]

 
Total
 
Jon Jones vs.
Mauricio Rua
Jones
Jones
Rua
Rua
Rua
Jones
Jones
Jones 57%
 
Urijah Faber vs.
Eddie Wineland
Faber
Faber
Faber
Wineland
Wineland
Faber
Faber
Faber 71%
 
Jim Miller vs.
Kamal Shalorus
Miller
Miller
Miller
Shalorus
Miller
Miller
Miller
Miller 86%
 
Nate Marquardt vs.
Dan Miller
Marquardt
Marquardt
Marquardt
Marquardt
Marquardt
Marquardt
Marquardt
Marquardt 100%
 
Brendan Schaub vs.
Mirko Filipovic
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Filipovic
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub 86%
 
Luis Cane vs.
Eliot Marshall
Cane
Marshall
Cane
Marshall
Cane
Marshall
Cane
Cane 57%
 
Edson Barboza vs.
Anthony Njokuani
Njokuani
Barboza
Barboza
Njokuani
Barboza
Barboza
Barboza
Barboza 71%
 
Ricardo Almeida vs.
Mike Pyle
Almeida
Pyle
Almeida
Almeida
Almeida
Pyle
Pyle
Almeida 57%
 
Gleison Tibau vs.
Kurt Pellegrino
Tibau
Tibau
Pellegrino
Tibau
Tibau
Tibau
Pellegrino
Tibau 71%
 
Joseph Benavidez vs.
Ian Loveland
Benavidez
Benavidez
Benavidez
Benavidez
Benavidez
Benavidez
Benavidez
Benavidez 100%
 
Raphael Assuncao vs.
Erik Koch
Koch
Koch
Koch
Assuncao
Assuncao
Koch
Koch
Koch 71%
 
Nick Catone vs.
Costantinos Phillippou
Catone
Catone
Catone
Phillippou
Catone
Catone
Phillipou
Catone 71%
 
Tiebreak
Jones/TKO/2
Jones/TKO/3
Rua/TKO/2
Rua/SD
Rua/TKO/2
Jones/TKO/2
Jones/TKO/2
 
Total
10/12 (83%)
11/12 (92%)
9/12 (75%)
3/12 (25%)
8/12 (67%)
11/12 (92%)
10/12 (83%)
 

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