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The Future Of The UFC Welterweight Division

After reading this article on CagePotato, I was moved to do my own analysis of the current state of the UFC Welterweight division. The gentlemen over at CagePotato raise some very valid points and echo the sentiment of many MMA blogs and fans. The UFC Welterweight division is currently facing a number of problems, the biggest of which is the repetitive nature atop the division. The scheduled UFC Welterweight championship fight between Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck is a rematch. Assuming St. Pierre is victorious, his next championship defense against Jon Fitch is a rematch. Even if Thiago Alves beat Jon Fitch at UFC 117, St. Pierre/Alves and Koscheck/Alves fight have both been done. In addition to the St. Pierre/Koscheck/Fitch/Alves mundane foursome, the current champion has also soundly defeated three other Welterweights in the top 20 (Dan Hardy, Matt Hughes and Matt Serra).

Several other factors also attribute to the lack of excitement surrounding the future of the UFC Welterweight division. Jake Shields, the UFC’s newest big-name addition, is legendary for his plodding fighting style. Another main point of contention is that even if Josh Koscheck were to pull off the miraculous upset, he has expressed in the past that he won’t fight his training partner Jon Fitch. Combine these factors with the steep drop off of competitive Welterweights after the top 5 and you have quite the situation.

Here is a breakdown of the upcoming UFC Welterweight contests, in addition to my outlook into the future of the once-landmark UFC division. Let’s see what we really have to look forward to in late 2010 through 2011. Be warned, this is an article to sink your teeth into; it is not for the faint of heart!

UFC Welterweight matchups that are scheduled or rumored:

The Contenders

(1)Georges St. Pierre VS. (5)Josh Koscheck – UFC 124

The two coaches of the upcoming season of the Ultimate Fighter will be duking it out in December. Koscheck, who is coming off of three straight wins, will be looking to avenge his loss at UFC 74. Koscheck’s heelish antics on the reality show will be about the most exciting part of this fight, as many people (including me) expect the champion to easily defend his title here. St. Pierre has the edge in every aspect of this fight, including wrestling. Unless Koscheck is able to land a Serra-esque shot, this one will be a dominant five-round decision.

(2)Jake Shields VS. (10)Martin Kampmann – UFC 121

Poor Martin Kampmann. I like everything about “The Hitman”; he’s an exciting, tough, well rounded fighter who deserves to be at the top of the Welterweight heap. Unfortunately for him, Jake Shields has beaten better strikers (Paul Daley), better wrestlers (Dan Henderson) and better BJJ players (Jason Miller) than Kampmann. He also has a decision win over Carlos Condit, a fighter with a lot of stylistic similarities to Kampmann. Shields takes a decision here and is likely in line for a title shot in late 2011.

(7)Dan Hardy VS. (21)Carlos Condit – UFC 120

This is probably the most exciting fight at the top of the UFC Welterweight division. In their last five fights, these two have been involved in four split decisions. Both guys are as game as they come, and this fight is going to steal the show in England. I’m giving an edge to “The Outlaw” in this fight because of his crushing punching power and Condit’s willingness to stand and trade. The winner of this fight is likely one win away from a title shot.

(13)Chris Lytle VS. (19)Matt Serra – UFC 119

Great piece of matchmaking by Joe Silva. This fight has an interesting dynamic: Lytle, who is a former professional boxer, is coming off two submission victories while Serra, a world class jiu jitsu player, has gotten his last two Ws courtesy of his knockout power. This is a rematch of Serra and Lytle’s fight at the Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale in 2006, which Matt Serra won via split decision. It was a close fight four years ago, but it won’t be in September. Lytle is far more improved and should outwork a tough as nails “Terrah” later this summer.

(17)Nate Diaz VS. (22)Marcus Davis – UFC 118

Nate Diaz is the 17th ranked Welterweight, which is pretty impressive considering he’s a Lightweight. His win over Rory Markham must have made quite an impression. His victory over Marcus Davis is going to propel the younger Diaz into the thick of the Welterweight hunt. Davis is tailor-made for Diaz: he won’t be able to knock Nate out or submit him. The difference in this fight is going to be that hyper-active Diaz striking combined with Marcus Davis’ withering gas tank in the late rounds.

(11)John Hathaway VS. (36)Mike Pyle – UFC 120

John Hathaway is arguably the hottest prospect in the UFC’s 170 lb. division. The undefeated Brit has bested three very tough mixed martial artists in his short UFC career, with his crowning achievement being an absolute destruction of Diego Sanchez. Mike Pyle replaced an injured Dong Hyun Kim to take on Hathaway at UFC 120, which is a useful result for Hathaway. He will have a much easier time with Pyle than he would have with Kim. Although Pyle is an MMA vet with respected submission ability, I think the kid is going to be too much for him.

Possible Contenders

(24)Paulo Thiago VS. (27)Diego Sanchez

Both Thiago and Sanchez have been very close to a title shot, with Sanchez actually earning a title shot at 155. However, Thiago and Sanchez are coming off tough decision losses at the hands of Martin Kampmann and John Hathaway respectively. This fight will push the winner over the hump of the Welterweight division, sending the loser back down to gatekeeper status. Thiago/Sanchez is a very tough fight to call; both fighters are skilled, well rounded and nearly impossible to finish. In a close fight, I go with the wrestler with sound submission defense. That fighter is Sanchez, and he gets his first win at Welterweight since June 2008.

(37)Mike Pierce VS. (UR)Amilcar Alves

Mike Pierce’s competitive loss against Jon Fitch has done more for Pierce’s career than either of his two UFC wins. Fight Magazine currently lists Pierce as the 37th Welterweight in the world, and he has the daunting task of trying to improve than number in a lose-lose situation. Jose Aldo training partner, Amilcar Alves, will certainly be game for this fight and has the Muay Thai, Judo and BJJ background to pull off an upset here. If Pierce beats an unknown UFC newcomer, his stock won’t go up too much. However, I expect the Brazilian to pull of the upset…perhaps positioning himself to be a future WW contender.

The future of the UFC Welterweight division:

The Contenders

St. Pierre/Koscheck winner VS. (3)Jon Fitch

We’re very likely looking at St. Pierre/Fitch II to main-event a mid-2011 UFC event. To be honest, I’m kind of hoping for a Koscheck upset just to see the chaos in the Dana White/Josh Koscheck/Jon Fitch triangle. Nevertheless, I expect two things from this fight: St. Pierre will be Fitch’s opponent and will beat him soundly (again). Jon Fitch is far from invincible, and a bigger Welterweight with better wrestling will expose him. Look forward to St. Pierre/Shields in late 2011 or early 2012.

Hathaway/Pyle winner VS. Diaz/Davis winner

Hathaway/Diaz is the likely outcome here, although any other combination is far from outside the realm of possibility. I’d like to think that the aforementioned result is what the UFC is looking for: new blood at the top of the Welterweight contender list. Even if the Hathaway/Diaz contender eliminator doesn’t work out, a Pyle/Diaz jiu jitsu fest or a Hathaway/Davis scrap would both be Fight Night main card worthy.

Sanchez/Thiago winner VS. (9)Thiago Alves

Diego Sanchez and Paulo Thiago have been fighting the cream of the crop of their divisions, and the winner of their fight should continue to do so. Assuming Thiago Alves can get his weight under control (I was compelled to make a Thiago Alves/Anthony Johnson weight making elimination fight), this could be a fresh, entertaining fight for the 170 class. A possible Sanchez/Alves fight has solid name value and good drawing power; an excellent co-main event or main card fight. Beyond that, a Thiago/Alves tilt (see what I did there?) could also be a competitive contest to move one of these former contenders back up the ladder.

Lytle/Serra winner VS. Hardy/Condit winner

Staying consistent with my earlier breakdowns, I believe (and am silently hoping) a Chris Lytle/Dan Hardy fight is on deck for 2011. If you don’t want to see that slug fest, you should probably stop watching MMA. A fight the magnitude of Hardy/Lytle could very well be the Garcia/Jung of 2011. If this fight does happen, I’d honestly put in on a free Spike prelim if I was the UFC brass (even though it is clearly a main-card fight. This fight would establish a top five UFC Welterweight and give a wrestling-centric weight class a little bit of explosiveness.

(4)Matt Hughes VS. (32)Dennis Hallman

Mark my words, this fight happens. Matt Hughes is at the point of his career where he is looking for interesting fights rather than rank-elevating opponents. The Ricardo Almeida, Renzo Gracie and Matt Serra fights are clear examples of this. What better storyline for a fight than the greatest Welterweight in the history of MMA facing the one man who has gone 2-0 against him. To me, its almost like karma that Hallman and Hughes both pulled off upsets at 117. I was under the impression that a future Hughes/Hallman fight was the sole purpose of signing “Superman”. I don’t think this fight gets either fighter a shot at the belt, but it is easily promotable.

Shields/Kampmann loser VS. (8)Jake Ellenberger

Jake Ellenberger need a big fight. Two TKO victories over two very respectable mixed martial artists on the heels of a split decision loss than could have gone either way makes Jake Ellenberger probably the brightest 170 lb. prospect not named John Hathaway. The UFC tossed this kid in the deep end against the likes of Carlos Condit, Mike Pyle and John Howard, so its obvious they aren’t giving him the Jon Jones treatment. He is an exciting fighter, and a possible showdown with Martin Kampmann could blow the roof off a venue. The fight makes sense no matter who wins the Shields/Kampmann fight.

St. Pierre/Koscheck loser VS. Hardy/Condit loser

Koscheck versus Condit…I like it. The odds are long against a St. Pierre/Hardy rematch or a St. Pierre/Condit scrap (although that one would be interesting), so Koscheck VS. Hardy/Condit is highly probable. Despite who loses the Hardy/Condit fight at UFC 120, a Welterweight fight comprised of two of the three will be fresh, exciting and marketable. Koscheck and Hardy have already had some heated words after the Koscheck/Daly fight, so that piece of matchmaking is a no brainer. The more likely outcome, Koscheck/Condit, will pit the world class wrestler against a well rounded fighter with dangerous striking, submissions and an iron chin.

Possible Contenders

(28)Anthony Johnson VS. (39)John Howard

Hathaway/Pyle loser VS. (43)Mike Swick

Sanchez/Thiago loser VS. Diaz/Davis loser

(53)Dustin Hazelett VS. (16)Ricardo Almeida

Lytle/Serra loser VS. (34)Renzo Gracie

(14) Rick Story VS. (15)Dong Hyun Kim

(23)Johny Hendricks VS. (31)Matt Riddle

(46)Ben Saunders VS. (50)Matt Brown

The Rest

(59)TJ Grant VS. (UR)Julio Paulino

(UR)Nick Osipczak VS. (UR)Greg Soto

Grant/Paulino winner VS. (42)Amir Sadollah

(61)DaMarques Johnson VS. (51)James Wilks

UFC 117 Pros’ Picks

MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAMafia Total Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen Silva Silva Silva Silva – Silva Sonnen Silva 83% Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves Fitch Fitch Fitch Fitch – Fitch Fitch Fitch 100% Junior dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson Nelson dos Santos dos Santos Nelson – dos Santos […]

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen	Silva	Silva	Silva	Silva	–	Silva	Sonnen	Silva 83%

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch	–	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch 100%

Junior dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson	Nelson	dos Santos	dos Santos	Nelson	–	dos Santos	dos Santos	dos Santos 67%

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Hughes	Hughes	Almeida	Almeida	Hughes	–	Almeida	Almeida	Almeida 67%

Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Anjos	Guida	dos Anjos	Guida	Guida	–	Guida	Guida	Guida 83%

Tim Boetsch vs. Todd Brown	Boetsch	Boetsch	Boetsch	Boetsch	–	Brown	Boetsch	Boetsch 83%

Ben Saunders vs. Dennis Hallman	Saunders	Saunders	Saunders	Hallman	–	Saunders	Saunders	Saunders 83%

Dustin Hazelett vs. Rick Story	Hazelett	Hazelett	Hazelett	Hazelett	–	Story	Hazelett	Hazelett 83%

Johny Hendricks vs. Charlie Brenneman	Hendricks	Hendricks	Hendricks	Hendricks	–	Hendricks	Hendricks	Hendricks 100%

Stefan Struve vs. Christain Morecraft	Struve	Struve	Struve	Struve	–	Morecraft	Struve	Struve 83%

Phil Davis vs. Rodney Wallace	Davis	Davis	Davis	Davis	–	Davis	Davis	Davis 100%

Tiebreak	Silva/SUB/3	Silva/SUB/2	Silva/SUB/2	Silva/STOP	–	Silva/TKO/2	Sonnen/UD	–

Total	8/11 (73%)	7/11 (67%)	8/11 (73%)	9/11 (82%)	–	7/11 (67%)	7/11 (67%)	MiddleEasy

UFC 117 Predictions

UFC 117 – Silva VS. Sonnen takes place tonight, August 7th in Oakland, California. The main event is one of the more intriguing Middleweight championship bouts in quite some time. UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva will be looking to continue his reign over the 185 lb. division against world-class wrestler Chael Sonnen. Sonnen’s unrelenting (and extremely entertaining) trash talk has turned this fight into must-see TV. Also appearing on the UFC 117 card is a number one contender fight between former Welterweight title challengers Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves.

Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC 117 card. Make sure to check out the Pros’ Picks as well! Enjoy the fights and best of luck with your bets.

Chael Sonnen – Mike Hammersmith (+350 on Bodog)

Perhaps not the pick you thought you’d see here, but hear me out. In the world of MMA betting, there are certain fundamentals that must be followed to properly predict the sport, such as stylistic differences, where a fight is likely to take place, etc, I feel the first fundamental of fight predictions is this: “You have to take your heart out of the fight.” While I may love certain fighters and despise others, the fact of the matter is they all have strengths and weaknesses to consider, and “I like/hate them” has nothing to do with how the fight will play out. Oftentimes with a beloved champion, you can never imagine someone could possibly come by and walk all over them, but such may be the case here with Chael Sonnen.

For me, this fight has a lot to do with technicalities and intangibles, and we’ll start with a look at the current champion Anderson Silva. Silva is perhaps the best technical striker to ever step into the cage, with a combination of accuracy, power, reflexes and sound fundamentals that make other great fighters look absolutely silly in comparison. Much like BJ Penn, I feel a focused and ready Anderson Silva, given the right opponent, is one of the best fighters you could hope for, and would go as far as to say he’s basically unbeatable against any kind of striker across any weight class. Two things stick out at me about Silva though, which leads me to believe he may be losing his belt on August 7th. One is that, while he puts on amazing displays against guys like Chris Leben, Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, he can’t seem to find a will to win against guys like Patrick Cote, Demian Maia and Thales Leites. Being the greatest counter-striker in the sport is all well and good, but when you’re fighting someone who refuses to engage you on the feet, it shouldn’t lead to a twenty-five minute dance off. This leads to my second issue with Silva, that being his dedication to the sport.

Having talked about retirement for years, including leaving everything behind to pursue boxing, you have to question Silva’s motivation and dedication to being competitive in this sport. Silva strikes me as someone who likes a challenge, and looking at the situation realistically, in twelve fights under the UFC banner, he’s faced only three opponents who stood any chance of beating him (Lutter, Henderson, and Marquardt) and hasn’t faced anyone on his level in over two years. This, combined with threats from Dana White to fire him if he doesn’t take fights seriously, and we come to two scenarios. Either Silva will come into this fight with sometime to prove and attempt to destroy Sonnen, which I think will work more often than not, or he’ll come into this bout exactly as he has for his last several title defenses and play right into Sonnen’s game.

For Sonnen’s part of this, he brings several problems for Silva. Sonnen is easily the best pure wrestler Silva has ever faced, with a work ethic in the cage that would kill most people, but perhaps his greatest asset is his mind. Sonnen comes from a wise camp in Team Quest, and Sonnen’s style has long been one of the least favorite of fans for one main reason. He understands the fight game well enough to be constantly active from top position, making stand-ups rare in his bouts, but isn’t so active as to open himself up for disaster. With irresistible takedowns and a top game that lives little room for victory for his opponent, Sonnen brings just enough to the fight to win, but not enough to entertain.

Breaking this fight down, I think Silva has a 40% chance of winning in the first round, and no chance of winning outside the second round. Sonnen will continuously move forward, dog every single takedown he can, and only really needs one per round to win this fight. This combined with Silva’s lack of cardio in recent bouts, and it’s not hard to imagine Sonnen losing the first round on points, and taking the next four by virtue of takedowns and control. With Sonnen having a slight edge in my book, his odds at +350 are very tempting, and I recommend a small wager here for the upset win.

Johny Hendricks – Mike Hammersmith -380 on SportsBet)

One of many highly-decorated wrestlers in the UFC, Johny Hendricks is riding an undefeated streak in his career, and showing improvement in every fight. His combination of suffocating top control, clinch wrestling and dirty boxing have allowed him to work over guys like Amir Sadollah and TJ Grant in competitive bouts, and given the right opponent, I think we’ll be seeing Hendricks at the top of the division within the next year. I think his next bout against Charlie Brenneman is about the perfect fight for him, as Brenneman comes into this as a very green wrestler who will have no leg to stand on against someone as talented as Hendricks. While the odds aren’t spectacular, taking Hendricks at -380 would make the best anchor bet of the night in my mind, as Brenneman lacks the tools to take this fight from him.

Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.

Jon Fitch – MMAMoneyLine (EVEN on BetUS)

Jon Fitch is an underdog against a guy coming off brain surgery…just throwing that out there. If this fight took place with both guys being healthy and at the top of their games, its close to a coin flip. But Thiago Alves is rusty and missed weight for this fight. Because he missed weight, it is likely that he will come into this fight bigger than Fitch, but with that being said Fitch is a huge Welterweight who doesn’t get bullied.

Fitch hasn’t been knocked out in his career, and I expect him to use his wrestling to wear down the Pitbull. I am going to question Alves’ late fight cardio here moreso than Fitch’s because of his drastic, last minute weight cut. This fight has a Fitch decision written all over it, and if you can get him at -115 or under it is worth a bet.

Matt Hughes – MMAMoneyLine (+155 on BetOnline)

Our line of thinking when it comes to MMA is a very “what have you done for me lately” approach. That kind of thinking has bitten us in the ass before (see Takanori Gomi, Mauricio Rua, Randy Couture etc.). You hear the word “retire” tossed around pretty freely on MMA blogs and message boards for anyone who has had more than 10 fights in the UFC. Matt Hughes is no exception to this.

Lets look at the facts: Matt Hughes has lost to Thiago Alves, BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre in recent memory. One of those guys is the best American Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player alive. One of those guys is arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world. One of those guys practically came into the fight as a Light Heavyweight. By saying Ricardo Almeida is going to win this fight, we’re putting him on the Alves/Penn/St. Pierre level.

Almeida is an absolute BJJ beast; he has some of the best submissions in MMA. Beyond that…not a whole hell of a lot. I’m going to give the former champion and possibly the greatest Welterweight of all time some respect here. He has the experience, wrestling and submission defense to warrant a bet at -155.

Ben Saunders – MMAMoneyLine (-220 on BetUS)

I left out Dennis Hallman‘s name off of the “people that have beaten Matt Hughes” list because it was forever ago. Hallman’s return to the UFC has been dramatic; he was on his way to decisioning John Howard before getting KTFO. With that being said, Ben Saunders is no John Howard.

There’s no reason to delve too deeply into this fight. Ben Saunders is a gigantic Welterweight whose size is a problem for everyone but the best wrestlers in the division. He is a beast in the clinch, has good submissions himself and has the “might be a little nuts” mentality that takes people a long way in this sport. Hallman gets knocked out quick…and -220 is a gift line here.

Stefan Struve – MMAMoneyLine (-185 on Bodog/Sportsbook)

The fact that Struve is better than -200 against a guy nobody has ever heard of is odd. Christian Morecraft‘s biggest tool is his size, but Struve is still bigger than him. Stefan Struve uses his long limbs very well on the ground and has very capable BJJ, especially for a guy his size. His striking is rudimentary at best, but he has a good chin and can use his striking to set up trips and takedowns.

Struve has been in there with some serious fighter. Whether hes won or lost, the experience gained from fighting the Junior dos Santos‘, Roy Nelson‘s and Paul Buentello‘s of the world give him an edge a newcomer like Christian Morecraft just doesn’t have. Look for a trip and submission win for the Skyscraper.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Silva/UD

Fitch/UD

dos Santos/TKO/2

Hughes/SD

dos Anjos/SUB/2

Boetsch/TKO/3

Saunders/KO/1

Hazelett/SUB/1

Hendricks/UD

Struve/SUB/1

Davis/SUB/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Fitch 1 u. at -115 on Sportsbook

Hughes – .5 u. at +140 on Sportsbook

Struve – 1 u. at -185 on Sportsbook

Saunders/Hazelett/Davis – .5 u. on Bodog

UFC On Versus 2 Predictions

UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego. The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz. Without further adieu, […]

Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC On Versus card. Make sure to check out the Pros Picks as well!

Jon Jones – Mike Hammersmith (-560 on SportBet)

The UFC never pretended to be fair in their match-making; showing definite favor towards some fighters, and mercilessly disposing of others, and with this in mind, it’s fairly obvious which camp Jon Jones is in. Having gained instant stardom with his upset victory over Andre Gusmao, and his wild arsenal of spinning strikes and five-point Greco-Roman throws, Jones has had a tailor-made path to the top of the division.

His next opponent is the gritty veteran Vladimir Matyushenko, whom stands as one of the several striker/wrestlers Jones has faced, and whom should prove to be an easy opponent to train for. This fight really does come down to training too, as the aging Matyushenko has started to show his age in his fights way back to his last matches IFL and comes into this fight with a predictable game plan and the wrong set of skills to deal with Jones. With Jones having trained for, fought, and defeated guys like Jake O’Brien and Matt Hamill, he’s essentially already worked on the blue print to beat Matyushenko, and comes into this fight a heavy favorite in my book.

Matyushenko doesn’t have the reach or fine technical skills to out-strike Jones, and with his speed gone, can never hope to shoot from outside Jones 84″ reach and catch a meaningful takedown. This fight is built to give Jones more experience and move him closer to the title picture, and while the payout is less than grand, a hearty bet at -560 is easy money.

John Howard – Mike Hammersmith (+150 on SportsBet)

Some may say he’s lucky to be undefeated in the UFC, but none can deny the talent of John “Doomsday” Howard. Having taken two split decision wins and delivered two KOs in his time inside the cage, Howard is making his main card debut after toiling in the dark matches, and will do so against another highly exciting fighter in Jake Ellenberger.

Both men have real KO power, fast transitions, and well-developed mat-work, with Howard having an advantage working off his back, while Ellenberger is likely the better striker of the two. When it comes down to it, I’d give a slight edge to Howard based on Ellenberger’s weakness working off his back, combined with Howard’s strong takedown skills. Sportbooks seem to be over-valuing Ellenberger here, making a small wager on Howard at +150 a good payout for a coin-flip fight.

Igor Pokrajac – Mike Hammersmith (+155 on Bookmaker)

It’s rare to see a fighter given a third opportunity in the UFC after going 0-2, but anyone who’s watched Igor Pokrajac’s appearances will know why. A sturdy wrestler with a natural talent on the feet, Pokrajac gave as good as he got in his fights with both Vladimir Matyushenko and James Te Huna, coming up just short on the scorecards, despite having both men in trouble in their bouts.

He’ll now be brought in against backsliding fighter James Irvin, who is also coming off of two losses, having only fought twice in the last two years. Irvin has had issues with everything from injury to failing drug tests to disastrous weight-cuts, and comes into this fight with little to offer except his incredible punching power. Punching power is the great equalizer, and when both men have it and are willing to trade, you end up with a very even fight. With that in mind, Pokrajac comes into this bout at +155 and makes for the best bet on the card, in my mind, for payout to risk.

Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.

Yushin Okami – MMAMoneyLine (-185 on Bodog)

Mark Munoz has been incredibly inconsistent, and has shown weakness in fights against Kendall Grove, Matt Hamill and Nick Catone. While Munoz has high level wrestling, he hasn’t used it well. Okami has better MMA-centric grappling and more technical striking. These to factors, in addition to Okami’s experience will allow him to expose the holes in Munoz’s still-developing MMA game en route to a decision victory. Throw a decent sized bet down on Okami over at Bodog.

Brian Stann – MMAMoneyLine (+140 on SportsBet)

If MMA betting has taught me one valuable lesson, its not to bet on someone coming off an injury. While a healthy Mike Massenzio would probably be a slight favorite over Brian Stann, that is clearly not the case here. Massenzio hasn’t fought in 2 years and is getting some unfair respect over a guy who lost to Phil Davis (editor’s note: everyone loses to Phil Davis). Stann’s improving game is the polar opposite of Massenzio’s injury troubles…in MMA you need to fight to improve. Stann is a very exciting pick at +140.

Darren Elkins – MMAMoneyLine (+300 on Bodog)

Charles Oliveira is overrated in my opinion. Word on the street is that he’s quite the prospect, but word on the next street is that his striking is sloppy and he’s fairly one dimensional. Yes, his BJJ will be worlds above anything Darren Elkins possesses. However, I think the +300 line on the UFC-tested Elkins is worth a play because Oliveira will have to submit him to win. Elkins is at least worth a look at this pretty inflated line.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Jones/KO/2

Okami/UD

Ellenberger/TKO/2

Griffin/UD

Kelly/SUB/3

Pokrajac/TKO/1

Riddle/SUB/1

Stann/UD

Kimmons/UD

Elkins/TKO/2

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Okami – 2 u. at -180 on Sportsbook

Pokrajac – .5 u. at +160 on BetUS

Stann – 1 u. at +140 on SportsBet

Elkins – .25 u. at +300 on Bodog

UFC 116 Pros’ Picks

MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAMafia Total Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin Lesnar Carwin Lesnar Carwin Carwin Carwin Carwin Carwin 71% Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben Akiyama Akiyama Akiyama Akiyama Leben Akiyama Leben Akiyama 71% Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown Lytle Lytle Lytle Brown Lytle Lytle Lytle Lytle 86% […]

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total

Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin	Lesnar	Carwin	Lesnar	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin 71%

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben	Akiyama	Akiyama	Akiyama	Akiyama	Leben	Akiyama	Leben	Akiyama 71%

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown	Lytle	Lytle	Lytle	Brown	Lytle	Lytle	Lytle	Lytle 86%

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar	Soszynski	Bonnar	Bonnar	Soszynski	Bonnar	Soszynski	Soszynski	Soszynski 57%

George Sotiropoulos vs. Kurt Pellegrino	Sotiropoulos	Pellegrino	Sotiropoulos	Sotiropoulos	Sotiropoulos	Sotiropoulos	Sotiropoulos	Sotiropoulos 86%

Ricardo Romero vs. Seth Petruzelli	Romero	Romero	Romero	Romero	Petruzelli	Petruzelli	Petruzelli	Romero 57%

Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer	Tuchscherer	Schaub	Schaub	Schaub	Schaub	Schaub	Schaub	Schaub 86%

Goran Reljic vs. Kendall Grove	Reljic	Reljic	Reljic	Grove	Grove	Reljic	Reljic	Reljic 71%

Daniel Roberts vs. Forrest Petz	Petz	Roberts	Roberts	Petz	Petz	Roberts	Roberts	Roberts 57%

Karlos Vemola vs. Jon Madsen	Madsen	Vemola	Vemola	Vemola	Vemola	Vemola	Vemola	Vemola 86%

Gerald Harris vs. David Branch	Harris	Harris	Harris	Branch	Harris	Harris	Harris	Harris 86%

Tiebreak	Lesnar/TKO/2	Carwin/TKO/1	Lesnar/TKO/3	Carwin/KO/1	Carwin/KO/1	Carwin/TKO/1	Carwin/TKO/2	–

Total	6/11 (55%)	6/11 (55%)	8/11 (73%)	4/11 (36%)	7/11 64%)	5/11 (45%)	6/11 (55%)	MMAConvert

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract. The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a Light Heavyweight scrap between Matt Hamill and Keith Jardine. Along with these four fighters, TUF 11 participants Jamie Yager, Rich Attonito, Kyle Noke and several others will join the likes of veterans Chris Leben, Aaron Simpson and Spencer Fisher to round out the card.

To be perfectly honest, I don’t see much betting value in this card. There are so many variables with TUF fights that I generally either bet very small amounts or stay away completely. My friend Mike Hammersmith is passing on this card completely, and I can’t really blame him. I personally only feel good about one bet on this card, which I will go into later. For now, check out MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Pros’ Picks and the current odds for research purposes.

Mark Holst – MMAMoneyLine (+200 on BetUS)

The guys over at CagePotato did a pretty solid writeup on UFC newcomer Mark Holst. Holst is currently 8-1 with equal knockout and submission victories. His latest win was a locked up kimura against former UFC fighter Corey Hill in March.

When you try out for The Ultimate Fighter and instead of making the show you skip right to a UFC card, it’s impressive (replacement or not). The UFC sees something in the Canadian…it’s not exactly like they’re looking for a can to feed to the surging John Gunderson. Holst is a consummate well rounded mixed martial artist with serious Muay Thai and grappling credentials, not to mention training logged under some of MMA’s best coaches.

Betting on Holst is a bit of a risk seeing as its his first UFC fight, but I’ve not been exactly blown away by Gunderson. Don’t get me wrong, he certainly has a chance to use his pace and wrestling to put Holst on his back. However, I believe the John Gunderson that was controlled by Rafaello Oliveira gets eaten up by Holst. Holst has the tools to finish this fight anywhere, but I think he will walk away with a decisive decision. At the current price Holst is going for, I strongly recommend at least a flier on the UFC newcomer outclassing the vet.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

McGee/SUB/2

Jardine/SD

Simpson/UD

Fisher/TKO/2

Yager/KO/1

Holst/UD

Browne/KO/2

Tavares/UD

Bryant/SD

Hammortree/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Jardine – 1 u. at +135 on Sportsbook

Holst – 1 u. at +300 on Bodog

Bryant – .25 u. at +160 on Sportsbook

Hammortree – .25 u. at+110 on Sportsbook

**Disclaimer – These are the odds I made the bets at, not necessarily the odds at the time of this posting. Although I made these bets, I don’t necessarily recommend them. I’m putting a bit of a flier on both Bryant and Hammortree because of injuries sustained by Noke and Camozzi respectively; I believe the odds to be off, but still too risky to recommend.**