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The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract.  The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a Light Heavyweight scrap between Matt Hamill and Keith Jardine.  Along with these four fighters, TUF 11 participants Jamie Yager, Rich Attonito, Kyle Noke and several others will join the likes of veterans Chris Leben, Aaron Simpson and Spencer Fisher to round out the card.

To be perfectly honest, I don’t see much betting value in this card.  There are so many variables with TUF fights that I generally either bet very small amounts or stay away completely.  My friend Mike Hammersmith is passing on this card completely, and I can’t really blame him.  I personally only feel good about one bet on this card, which I will go into later.  For now, check out MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Pros’ Picks and the current odds for research purposes.

Mark Holst – MMAMoneyLine (+200 on BetUS)

The guys over at CagePotato did a pretty solid writeup on UFC newcomer Mark Holst. Holst is currently 8-1 with equal knockout and submission victories.  His latest win was a locked up kimura against former UFC fighter Corey Hill in March.

When you try out for The Ultimate Fighter and instead of making the show you skip right to a UFC card, it’s impressive (replacement or not).  The UFC sees something in the Canadian…it’s not exactly like they’re looking for a can to feed to the surging John Gunderson.  Holst is a consummate well rounded mixed martial artist with serious Muay Thai and grappling credentials, not to mention training logged under some of MMA’s best coaches.

Betting on Holst is a bit of a risk seeing as its his first UFC fight, but I’ve not been exactly blown away by Gunderson.  Don’t get me wrong, he certainly has a chance to use his pace and wrestling to put Holst on his back.  However, I believe the John Gunderson that was controlled by Rafaello Oliveira gets eaten up by Holst.  Holst has the tools to finish this fight anywhere, but I think he will walk away with a decisive decision.  At the current price Holst is going for, I strongly recommend at least a flier on the UFC newcomer outclassing the vet.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

McGee/SUB/2

Jardine/SD

Simpson/UD

Fisher/TKO/2

Yager/KO/1

Holst/UD

Browne/KO/2

Tavares/UD

Bryant/SD

Hammortree/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Jardine – 1 u. at +135 on Sportsbook

Holst – 1 u. at +300 on Bodog

Bryant – .25 u. at +160 on Sportsbook

Hammortree – .25 u. at+110 on Sportsbook

**Disclaimer – These are the odds I made the bets at, not necessarily the odds at the time of this posting. Although I made these bets, I don’t necessarily recommend them.  I’m putting a bit of a flier on both Bryant and Hammortree because of injuries sustained by Noke and Camozzi respectively; I believe the odds to be off, but still too risky to recommend.**

Strikeforce – Los Angeles takes place June 16th in, you guessed it, Los Angeles.  Forgive the less than stellar poster…I couldn’t find one for this event for some reason so I had to make one to put there.  The main event will match up two former UFC fighters and top contenders Renato “Babalu” Sobral and “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler.  Allegedly, the winner of this fight will get a title shot in their respective weight classes.  Also appearing on the Strikeforce – LA card are Marius Zaromskis, the male version of Cyborg Santos, Trevor Prangley, KJ Noons and Tim Kennedy.

As always, Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations. Here are myself and Mike’s top plays for tomorrow’s Strikeforce – Los Angeles card.  To check out Mike’s picks for the full card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce – Los Angeles Pros’ Picks.

Conor Heun – Mike Hammersmith (+335 on Bookmaker)

Probably more famous for his role on Bully Beatdown than his actual fighting prowess, Conor “The Hurricane” Heun is a full-time submission grappling and wrestling trainer at Legends MMA, and a veteran of several mid-tier MMA organizations. Those he’s not a full-time fighter, Heun has had a successful career with eight wins, and all of this three losses coming by way of decision.

He will be facing off-again on-again MMA fighter KJ Noons, who has spent the majority of his fighting career inside a boxing ring, rather than the cage. Having already made his comeback to MMA in Japan, he took on Andre Amade in an affair that showed both ring rust, and a series of very bad habits picked up from his several years away from the sport and learning the sweet science.

While Noons can clearly out-strike Heun in a standing battle, Heun brings more than enough wrestling and submission grappling to put Noons down consistently in this bout, and make his boxing skills all but useless. My concern here is that Heun will prefer to bang it out with Noons, as he’s shown a willingness to scrap even when it doesn’t favor his chances of winning. Despite sometimes being his own worst enemy in the cage, Heun comes into this bout at +335 and makes for a great bet in what is likely a dead even fight.

Marius Zaromskis – MMAMoneyLine (-245 on Bookmaker)

I imagine some people are not as high on “The Whitemare” now after his drubbing at the hands of Nick Diaz.  However, Marius Zaromskis is still an extremely devastating striker with KO power in both hands and feet.  Strikeforce, in my opinion, gave him a pretty good match up in Evangelista Santos.  Cyborg is also heavy handed, but he isn’t as fast or technical as Zaromskis.  I have little doubt that this entire contest will unfold with both participants upright, and nothing of Cyborg’s recent fights has shown me that he is going to be able to hang with Zaromskis.  Taking Joey Villasenor to a split decision was impressive, but I believe Zaromskis has better striking than Smokin’ Joe.  After a close first frame, look for the Whitemare to land a few leg kicks in the second and ultimately sneak in his trademark high kick for the KO win.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Sobral/UD

Zaromskis/TKO/2

Kennedy/SD

Heun/SUB/2

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Zaromskis – 1 u. at -245 on Bookmaker

Heun – .25 u. at +335 on Bookmaker

UFC 115 – Liddell VS Franklin takes place this Saturday in Vancouver.  It should be an electric day of sports programming with USA/England on during the day and UFC 115 at night.  This Saturday’s main event pits former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell against former UFC Middleweight champion Rich Franklin.  As we all know, this was supposed to be the third installment of Liddell/Ortiz, but Tito went down with an injury.

Despite the heat this card has been getting, I think it has a lot of potential.  The Condit/MacDonald, Griffin/Dunham, Danzig/Wiman and Kampmann/Thiago fights should all be exciting and competitive.  The two heavyweight bouts on the main card will also satiate your thirst for a good ol’ slugfest.

As always, Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations. Here are myself and Mike’s top plays for this weekend’s UFC 115 card (and there are A LOT to choose from!).  To check out Mike’s picks for the full card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 115 – Liddell VS Franklin Pros’ Picks.

Pat Barry – Mike Hammersmith (-150 on BetUS/Sportsbook)

Though a baby in the sport when he came into the UFC, Pat Barry has been on a serious learning curve, and has shown his worth every time he steps into the octagon. Although accused of being a small Heavyweight, Barry packs a ton of power into his frame, and every win comes by way of TKO due to his large arsenal of striking skills and particularly, his vicious leg kicks. While his ground game is still developing, and he’d be eaten alive by some of the monster wrestlers in the division, there are several fights that should be fairly easy for him. Enter the fan favorite and aging warrior in Mirko Filipovic, who will be fighting his last contractual fight in the UFC, and who has looked to be a shadow of his former self in previous bouts.

Every once in awhile, the UFC sets up something I call a “passing of the torch fight”, where an aging fighter is placed against a young, hungry lion of similar skills, with the idea that the young man will replace the older with a win. It happened when Frankie Edgar dismantled former champion Sean Sherk, and it should happen now when a more versatile and less shop-worn Barry soundly beats the legendary Cro-cop. The main issue here for Cro-cop is that his speed has faded, and his career has been spent engaging primarily in throw-away fights, leaving him with a contemptuous defense hardwired into his style, and without the chin to deal with real power. Barry has shown he can take a hit, and can certainly dish one out here, making him a firm favorite it my book. At -150 , he makes for one of the best value bets, despite being a favorite.

Rich Franklin – Mike Hammersmith (-140 on Bookmaker/Sportsbook)

Though the opponent has changed from Tito Ortiz to Rich Franklin, the story remains the same, as two veteran fighters in the twilight of their career will scrap in the main event of UFC 115. Rich Franklin has been taking it easy as of late, and playing the part of the company man, filling in wherever he’s needed at anywhere from 185-205lbs. Now he steps into this role once again in what would have been a dream match five years ago, and in what will hopefully be an exciting bout despite the decline of both fights. Decline is the key word here, as both men have fallen behind the curve of the division, and age, both in years and in fights, has certainly taken its toll on them. For Franklin’s part, we’ve seen a slight decline in his speed, but his technique has always been sharp, and he remains a difficult fight for anyone across two weight classes. For Chuck Liddell, the decline has been much more noticeable, and terribly unforgiving for the former champion, having suffered three TKOs in five fights.

Evan Dunham – Mike Hammersmith (+195 on 5Dimes/Sportbet)

Having flown under the radar for some time, Evan Dunham has been an underdog in every single UFC bout he’s had, but remains undefeated in his career. His last bout was a spectacular submission victory over fellow undefeated fighter, Efrain Escudero, where he snapped not only his winning streak, but also his elbow in a smooth armbar transition in the third round, walking away with the biggest victory of his career. Now Dunham faces teammate and fan favorite Tyson Griffin in his next step up in competition, which promises to be a great fight. We’re not here to talk about great fights though, but to make money, so here’s how this will likely go down.

Ben Rothwell – MMAMoneyLine (-150 on BetUS)

Nothing damaged Rothwell’s stock more than his discouraging loss to Cain Velasquez.  However, lets keep in mind that it was Cain Velasquez…one of the best Heavyweights in MMA.  Rothwell came into the Velasquez fight in some of the best shape of his career; he was simply outmatched by a more explosive fighter.  Big Ben still has the game to knock his opponent out, submit him or grind him out against the cage for 15 minutes.

Enter Gilbert Yvel.  The level of Yvel’s striking has never been questioned…he is a very good striker with a ton of experience.  In the same vein as Rothwell’s loss to Velasquez, Yvel shouldn’t be put out to pasture for losing to Junior dos Santos.  The main thing that worries be about Yvel is the fact that he’s either been losing fights or beating cans for the last five years.  His game is fading and he looked slow and uninterested against dos Santos.

I don’t see how Yvel keeps Rothwell’s bear like body away for three rounds.  Yvel absolutely has a puncher’s (/kicker’s) chance against Rothwell, but Ben should be able to dictate this entire fight.  Yvel has no gas tank, will be out muscled and outworked on the ground.  Aside from Yvel catching Rothwell sleeping with a roundhouse kick (which is unlikely against a veteran fighter like Rothwell), this fight ends either in a Rothwell submission or dominant decision.  I like Rothwell a lot at -150 at BetUS.  I’d put Rothwell at closer to -220 personally.

Mario Miranda – MMAMoneyLine (-185 on Bodog/Sportsbook)

Taking Chuck Liddell, Mirko Filipovic and Gilbert Yvel into consideration, I still think David Loiseau has the least likely chance out of any of the aging fighters to make a statement at UFC 115.  The Crow’s last win over a name opponent was against the late Evan Tanner in 2005.  Not only is Loiseau in the twilight of his career, he is going to be overmatched in nearly every category against Mario Miranda.

Miranda is younger, hungrier, arguably has the more effective striking and absolutely has the grappling advantage.  He looked good against Gerald Harris before being KOed and will surely be looking out for Loiseau’s elbows.  I expect Miranda to use his striking to set up a takedown and the following ground and pound finish.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Franklin/UD

Barry/TKO/3

Thiago VS. Kampmann/DRAW (yeah, I said it)

MacDonald/SD

Rothwell/UD

Wiman/SD

Dunham/UD

Wilks/SUB/1

Pyle/SUB/2

Miranda/TKO/2

Patrick/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Franklin – 2 u. at -135 on Sportsbook

Barry – 2 u. at -115 on Sportsbook

Rothwell – 1 u. at -165 on Bodog

Dunham – .25 u. at +180 on Bodog

Wiman – .5 u. at +105 on Sportsbook

Miranda – 1 u. at -185 on Sportsbook