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UFC Fight Night 21 – Florian VS. Gomi takes place tonight in North Carolina.  The main event features the UFC debut on an MMA legend, as Takanori Gomi takes on former UFC Lightweight title contender Kenny Florian.  That Lightweight fight could very well determine who gets the next shot at BJ Penn.  The co-main event will feature TUF winner Roy Nelson against BJJ ace and the tallest UFC Heavyweight Stefan Struve.

There isn’t a ton of value on this card, both main events are pretty lopsided.  Judging by the Pros’ Picks, only two fights on this card are remotely competitive.  I tend to agree in large part, but I do have an upset or two in mind.

As always, these picks are the opinion of one man. Follow my betting advice with discretion and only wager as much as you feel comfortable losing. I will only be writing predictions and betting analysis for those bouts in which I believe have betting value. If you want more information on the card in its entirety, check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” for UFC Fight Night 21. Without further adieu, here are MMAMoneyLine’s official picks and betting analysis for UFC Fight Night 21 – Florian VS. Gomi.

Gerald Harris VS. Mario Miranda

Judging by the line movement, a Mario Miranda pick seems to be the cool thing to do.  It is definitely understandable; Miranda is a pretty hyped up prospect.  I’ve even heard the dreaded “next Anderson Silva” thrown around (although thats almost like a jinx these days).  I agree that Miranda is a solid pick at his current odds and this is why:

Gerald Harris has a sound wrestling pedigree, but his stand up will be his best friend in this fight.  The TUF alum will have the most success trading with the Brazilian.  Harris wants nothing to do with Miranda on the mat, especially if Harris is on his back.

However, Miranda has proven to be improving his whole MMA game, not just his grappling.  He is undefeated with KO and submission wins on his record.  He has also faced UFC caliber fighters like Rick Story and Joe Vedepo, so he’s no stranger to this level of competition.  I doubt the Octagon jitters will have much of an effect on Miranda, and I see this fight eventually hitting the mat.  When it does, Miranda will finish Harris and perhaps even earn himself a bonus.

My pick:  Mario Miranda via SUB (rear naked choke) in the 2nd

Betting play: Even though Miranda’s odds have become less favorable as of late, he’s still an underdog on all cards.  Since MMAMoneyLine sees Miranda as the favorite, bettors have the edge here.  Getting Miranda at +130 on BetUS is recommended.

Nik Lentz VS. Rob Emerson

In a fight that has “prelims” written all over it, Nik Lentz will look to use his wrestling against the sharp striking of Rob Emerson.  Emerson, a product of The Ultimate Fighter, has been constantly improving since we saw him on the show.  He had a sound striking base to begin with, but has really refined his stand up and improved his takedown defense and defensive grappling in general.  “The Saint” is very tough to finish, with only one loss coming via submission against Kurt Pellegrino.  This is even more impressive considering the caliber of fighter he’s faced throughout his career (Manny Gamburyan, Javier Vazquez, Jens Pulver, Melvin Guillard etc.)

Lentz has gone a surprising 1-0-1 in his two fights under the UFC banner, both fights in which he was a sizeable underdog.  “The Carnie” has solid, Minnesota-bred wrestling and good power.  However, his stand up is far from technical and if he can’t get Emerson to the ground he could be in trouble.

Emerson’s striking is simply on another level than that of Lentz.  In addition, Emerson’s improving takedown defense is going to really hamper Lentz’s primary objective.  If Lentz is able to take Emerson down, a finish is unlikely judging by Emerson’s record and formidable defensive grappling.  The only way I see Lentz coming out of this fight a winner is if he can secure three takedowns and grind his way to victory.  That prospect is pretty dim when you are against a high caliber striker who has capable takedown defense (not to mention referee’s tendencies to stand fighters up).  I’m going with the striking and experience here.

My pick:  Rob Emerson via unanimous decision

Betting play: I was surprised to see Emerson as the dog here.  I don’t know where Lentz is getting this momentum, but a sloppy win and draw don’t do it for me.  Emerson’s best odds are +140 at Bodog, a line which MMAMoneyLine recommends you take advantage of.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Florian/SUB/3

Nelson/TKO/3

Quarry/KO/1

Pearson/SD

Okami/UD

Tibau/UD

High/SD

Miranda/SUB/2

Winner/KO/1

Emerson/UD

Torres/SUB/2

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Miranda – .5 u. at +130 on BetUS

Emerson – .5 u at +140 on Bodog

Joe Silva…give me a call!  Right now, the UFC’s Heavyweight division is as stacked as any other weight class in history including UFC’s Light Heavyweight and Welterweight juggernauts of yore.  Zuffa’s Heavyweight class has it all:  new age Heavyweight bohemoths like Lesnar, Carwin, Velasquez and Duffee; BJJ aces like Nogueira, Mir, Gonzaga, Struve and Nelson and feel good strikers like dos Santos, Kimbo, Mitrione, Buentello, Kongo, Barry, Cro Cop and Yvel.

With all the chaos and promise that is happening in the UFC’s heaviest weight class, I couldn’t help myself to analyze what the near and distant future holds.  Here is a quick rundown of the scheduled and rumored upcoming Heavyweight contests, as well as my opinion on what late 2010 and 2011 holds.

UFC Heavyweight matchups that are scheduled or rumored:

Roy Nelson VS. Stefan Struve (UFC Fight Night 21)

This Heavyweight BJJ-fest is going down tomorrow (Wednesday) on the main card of UFC Fight Night 21.  Nelson is the odds on favorite to win (-325/-350 range), which I believe he will.  His jits and striking are both better than Struve’s, plus he has a serious experience edge.  If Big Country can get past the gargantuan height and reach disparity, he should have little problem finishing the tallest Heavyweight in the UFC.

Kimbo Slice VS. Matt Mitrione (UFC 113)

Yes, this qualifies as a fight.  First off, I was flabbergasted at the odds that came out for this fight.  I got a bet in on Mitrione at +150 (!!!) a few months ago.  Tell me if I’m wrong about this fight:  Matt Mitrione, a guy who has an absolute iron chin, hits like a truck and got up from under Marcus Jones is taking on Kimbo Slice, a guy with a very questionable chin, decent boxing and an underdeveloped ground game.  How does this fight end in any other way than a Mitrione KO?

Todd Duffee VS. Mike Russow (UFC 114)

Mike Russow was a pretty big Heavyweight prospect before he got signed by the UFC.  In his 1 UFC fight, he decisioned Justin McCully.  Unfortunately, he’s gotten a real rough draw here in Todd Duffee.  Honestly, it wouldn’t matter if he decisioned Fedor…he’s going to get destroyed by Duffee.  I only question how long it will take.

Mirko Filipovic VS. Pat Barry (UFC 115)

I like this better than Cro Cop/Rothwell.  I would hope and expect this fight to stay upright with the better man winning, but God only knows.  I still think Barry should drop to Light Heavyweight, but he’s been doing alright in the Heavyweight division going 2-1.  That being said, I’m still not sold on Mirko being a guy who can beat a top 15 Heavyweight; Anthony Perosh was a last minute, gift matchup for him.  Pat Barry should win this, but the line will probably come out with Cro Cop as a favorite (heads up for the shrewd bettors out there).

Ben Rothwell VS. Gilbert Yvel (UFC 115)

Both guys are simply looking to forget their last fight.  I can’t really give ‘em too much grief about their recent UFC fights; a loss against Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos respectively is pretty understandable in retrospect.  Both of these guys are competent strikers with Rothwell having the overpowering, brawler style and Yvel having the more refined striking.  I honestly have no idea who takes this fight…not gonna lie.  Both guys have a strong possibility to be the one cheering or the one sleeping.

Brock Lesnar VS. Shane Carwin (UFC 116)

Lesnar/Carwin at UFC 116 is going to happen barring any physical or bureaucratic interference.  In a fight that will need Octagon reinforcement, Lesnar is in essence facing off against his mirror image.  Both guys have relied on the same strengths to get to where they are now:  gargantuan size, inhuman strength, unstoppable wrestling and one punch KO power.  Lesnar is slightly bigger, slightly stronger and has better wrestling.  Carwin has better striking technique, a better camp and more experience (as far as fights go, anyway).  Who wins the undisputed belt?  Probably Lesnar.  I’ve seen Carwin go down, I haven’t seen Lesnar drop yet.

The future of the UFC Heavyweight division:

Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin winner VS. Cain Velasquez

Instead of getting dos Santos/Velasquez (like most of us wanted), the UFC is going to shield their young guns from a non-title fight loss.  Dana White recently came out and said dos Santos is next in line, and will wait for the winner of Lesnar/Carwin in July.  Depending on how bloody and violent the Heavyweight clash ia at 116, this fight could very well take place on the marquee UFC card around Superbowl weekend.  I’m not even going to speculate on who wins this fight because of all the variables, however I will assume both fighters are going to be in for an eventful night.

Junior dos Santos VS. Todd Duffee (if victorious)

Frank Mir VS. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira II

Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin loser VS Frank Mir/Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira winner

Roy Nelson/Stefan Struve winner VS. Frank Mir/Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira loser

Kimbo Slice/Matt Mitrione winner VS. Mirko Filipovic/Pat Barry winner

Kimbo Slice/Matt Mitrione loser VS. James Toney

Mirko Filipovic/Pat Barry loser VS. Cheick Kongo

Ben Rothwell/Gilbert Yvel winner VS. Gabriel Gonzaga

Ben Rothwell/Gilbert Yvel loser VS. Paul Buentello

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total
Kenny Florian vs. Takanori Gomi	Florian	–	Florian	Florian	Gomi	Florian	Florian	Florian 83%
Roy Nelson vs. Stefan Struve	Nelson	–	Nelson	Nelson	Nelson	Nelson	Nelson	Nelson 100%
Yushin Okami vs. Lucio Linhares	Okami	–	Okami	Linhares	Okami	Okami	Okami	Okami 83%
Gleison Tibau vs. Caol Uno	Tibau	–	Tibau	Tibau	Uno	Tibau	Tibau	Tibau 83%
Nate Quarry vs. Jorge Rivera	Quarry	–	Quarry	Rivera	Quarry	Quarry	Quarry	Quarry 83%
Ross Pearson vs. Dennis Siver	Pearson	–	Pearson	Pearson	Pearson	Pearson	Pearson	Pearson 100%
Jason High vs. Charlie Brenneman	High	–	High	High	High	Brenneman	High	High 83%
Gerald Harris vs. Mario Miranda	Harris	–	Harris	Harris	Harris	Harris	Miranda	Harris 83%
Andre Winner vs. Rafaello Oliveira	Winner	–	Oliveira	Winner	Winner	Winner	Winner	Winner 83%
Rob Emerson vs. Nik Lentz	Lentz	–	Emerson	Emerson	Emerson	Lentz	Lentz	EVEN
Ronnys Torres vs. Jacob Volkmann	Volkmann	–	Torres	Volkmann	Torres	Torres	Torres	Torres 67%
Tiebreak	Florian/UD	–	Florian/UD	Florian/UD	Gomi/KO/2	Florian/TKO/2	Florian/UD	–
Total	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

UFC 111 – St. Pierre VS. Hardy takes place this Saturday, March 27 in the Garden State.  For those of you who have suffered through the UFC’s recent title fight drought (except for you BJ, thanks!), UFC 111 gives us not one but TWO belt-worthy contests.

The main event features seemingly unstoppable UFC Welterweight champion George “Rush” St. Pierre squaring off against sledgehammer handed Dan “Outlaw” Hardy.  The co-main event is an interim Heavyweight title bout between Frank Mir and Shane Carwin.  Due to Thiago Alves’ last minute health issues, Jon Fitch will now be facing Ben Saunders.

As always, these picks are the opinion of one man.  Follow my betting advice with discretion and only wager as much as you feel comfortable losing.  I will only be writing predictions and betting analysis for those bouts in which I believe have betting value.  If you want more information on the card in its entirety, check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” for UFC 111.  Without further adieu, here are MMAMoneyLine’s official picks and betting analysis for UFC 111 – St. Pierre VS. Hardy

Frank Mir VS. Shane Carwin

In what has become a pattern in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, a wily, talented veteran is facing the young, hungry, up and coming contender (see Mir/Lesnar, Nogueira/Velasquez, Gonzaga/Carwin, Gonzaga/dos Santos, Filipovic/dos Santos etc.).  We all know what Frank Mir is capable of:  world class BJJ coupled with improved striking and added strength.  Shane Carwin is a bit more of a wildcard.  Carwin has scary wrestling and ground and pound coupled with the kind of KO power rarely seen in any fighter.  However, because all of his fights have ended via KO in the first round, we don’t have any solid evidence of his stamina or submission defense.  At least the Gonzaga fight showed us he can take a hard shot.

It is going to be difficult to convince me that this fight is going to be any different than Lesnar/Mir II.  No matter how much mass Mir gains, how much strength he adds or how often he drills wrestling, he is still going to be out-muscled and out wrestled by Carwin.

I can’t imagine Frank Mir’s gameplan being anything but utilizing his newly found/possibly overrated striking and reverting to his submission game if the situation presents itself.  Mir will be the more technical striker of the two but as we’ve seen in the Gonzaga fight in particular, Carwin can knock out a big, tough Heavyweight with very short punches.

If you’re betting Mir in this fight, you’re assuming two things:  Mir has the technical striking and defense to outwork Carwin to a five round decision and Mir has the ability to submit Carwin if Shane gets sloppy.  I wholeheartedly agree with the second point, but the first one is very unlikely.  If this fight was three rounds, Mir might have a better shot.  However, Carwin’s extensive wrestling background and training leads me to believe he will have a bigger gas tank than the former champ.

This fight begins and ends on the feet, where Mir uses his striking effectively for a bit but eventually gets caught with a right hand.  Carwin drops Mir and capitalizes with fierce ground and pound, not giving Mir a chance for a submission and eventually rendering him bloody and unconscious.

My pick:  Shane Carwin via TKO in the second

Betting play: I was pretty surprised at this line when it came out, and still am pretty shocked that it hasn’t moved much.  There is a lot of faith in Mir in this contest, and I just don’t see it.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a healthy bet on Carwin at +130 at SportBet.

Kurt Pellegrino VS. Fabricio Camoes

In a newly appointed main card bout, former Lightweight contender Kurt Pellegrino looks to use his wrestling to grind out talented Brazilian Fabricio Camoes.  However, that may be easier said than done.  Camoes is being grossly underrated here judging by his line.  His first and only UFC fight was a draw against veteran Caol Uno, a fight he would have won if it weren’t for a foul resulting in a point deduction.

Both of these fighters are very well rounded and dangerous in any position.  Pellegrino is the more technical striker, but Camoes has more explosive, powerful striking.  Pellegrino has the wrestling edge, but not by much as Camoes is a more than competent grappler.  If this fight hits the mat (which it most certainly will), both of these guys are about dead even.  Camoes is arguably the more accomplished BJJ player, but Pellegrino is also a black belt and has handled BJJ black belts before.

Sound like a coin flip to you?  Sounds like one to me.  The -215/+205 Pellegrino/Camoes line says different, and looks like an edge for us bettors.  I still think Pellegrino wins this fight about 55% of the time, but the smart money is on Camoes.  As a side note, Performify over at MMAJunkie has an interesting story about Fabricio Camoes that may change your opinion of the O-O-1 UFC fighter.

My pick:  Pellegrino via split decision

Betting play: Camoes at +205 is a very good line.  MMAMoneyLine recommends a small play on Morango at Sportsbook.

 

Ricardo Almeida VS. Matt Brown

In one of the most competitive and polarizing fights on the UFC 111 card, BJJ wizard Ricardo Almeida will tangle with consummate bad ass Matt Brown.  This fight will be Almeida’s maiden voyage in the UFC’s Welterweight division against a fellow converted Middleweight in Brown.

There’s two popular schools of thought here:  Almeida is going to turn Brown into a pretzel with his world class BJJ or Brown is going to switch Almeida’s lights off.  Almeida’s BJJ is some of the best in mixed martial arts, and he has the ability to submit anyone on any given day.  However, his wrestling and striking leave a lot to be desired.  Also, one has to wonder how Almeida will handle the weight cut.

While Almeida is a bit of a question mark, we know what to expect from Matt Brown.  Heavy handed, tough as nails and surprisingly well rounded.  Brown has good takedown and submission defense, but how much will that matter against a BJJ player on the level of Almeida?

Cachorrao has one clear cut road to finishing this fight.  However, he is going to have to get through the Immortal’s formidable striking, takedown defense and strength advantage.  I do not fall into either of the previous popular schools of thought, I believe this fight will be competitive for the first round or two with Brown catching Almeida late with a chin blast.  You need more than one tool to make it to the next level, and trying to utilize that one tool when weak and tired is even more difficult.

My pick:  Matt Brown via 3rd round KO

Betting play: Brown’s best odds are +140 at 5Dimes.  MMAMoneyLine likes a bet on Brown at 42% considering he should be at worst even.

 

Rodney Wallace VS. Jared Hamman

Most people think this is a 50/50 fight.  Allow me to make the case on why it isn’t.  In your standard wrestler versus striker fight, Rodney Wallace will be looking to take Jared Hamman down before Hamman gets a chance to put rights and lefts to his face.  While Hamman does have good power and far superior striking, it is extremely difficult to knock a guy out who is constantly shooting in.  Adding the fact that Wallace is very athletic and has an extremely good chin, Hamman’s best bet looks like a knee catching Wallace on the way in.

Wallace’s last fight with Brian Stann was very competitive, but “Sho Nuff the Master”’s gas tank betrayed him late.  Wallace was able to take down Stann with relative ease.  While Stann isn’t the most talented takedown defender, he is a formidable grappler who trains at one of the best wrestling gyms in the country.  Wallace should have little problems getting Hamman to the mat.

Unless Rodney Wallace comes into this fight with the worst gameplan ever or his stamina hasn’t improved, I believe he is a strong favorite here.  Hamman absolutely has the ability to put Wallace in trouble, but it’s hard betting against an explosive, iron chinned wrestler here.

My pick:  Rodney Wallace via TKO (ground and pound) in the 2nd

Betting play: MMAMoneyLine likes a bet on Rodney Wallace at -130 at Bodog.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

St. Pierre/SUB/2

Carwin/TKO/2

Fitch/UD

Miller/UD

Pellegrino/SD

Diaz/SUB/1

Brown/TKO/3

Wallace/TKO/2

Palhares/UD

Riddle/UD

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Carwin – 2 u. at +130 on SportBet

Camoes – .5 u at +205 on SportsBook

Brown – .75 u at +140 on 5Dimes

Wallace – .5 u at -130 on Bodog

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total
Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy	St. Pierre	St. Pierre	St. Pierre	Hardy	Hardy	St. Pierre	St. Pierre	St. Pierre 71%
Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin	Mir	Mir	Mir	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin	Carwin 57%
Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch	Saunders	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch 86%
Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller	Miller 100%
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino	Pellegrino 100%
Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham	Diaz	Diaz	Diaz	Diaz	Diaz	Diaz	Markham	Diaz 86%
Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown	Almeida	Brown	Brown	Almeida	Almeida	Brown	Almeida	Almeida 57%
Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman	Hamman	Wallace	Wallace	Wallace	Wallace	Hamman	Wallace	Wallace 71%
Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares	Palhares 100%
Matt Riddle vs. Greg Soto	Riddle	Riddle	Riddle	Soto	Riddle	Riddle	Riddle	Riddle 86%
Tiebreak	St. Pierre/TKO/3	St. Pierre/TKO/2	St. Pierre/TKO/4	Hardy/TKO/1	Hardy/KO/3	St. Pierre/TKO/2	St. Pierre/TKO/3	–
Total	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Just want to let everyone out there about a new feature on MMAMoneyLine. On the main page, I’ve hyper-linked the best available odds for each card directly to the sports book. You can see the best odds are now underlined as well as highlighted. Although this change is fairly small, it is something to make your browsing experience easier.

Before you ask, yes…these links are affiliate links (some people have a problem with not knowing that beforehand). Since MMAMoneyLine needs funding to operate, affiliate partnerships are major revenue sources.

Going forward, I am going to take steps to make your browsing experience as simple, thorough and helpful as possible. Hopefully when MMAMoneyLine’s 1 year anniversary rolls around this upcoming June, the site will be better than ever!