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UFC 128 – Shogun VS. Jones takes place Saturday, March 19 in Newark, NJ.  The main event features UFC Light Heavyweight champion and PRIDE superstar Mauricio “Shogun” Rua defending his title against the up and coming Jon Jones.  Rua was originally set to face former 205 champ Rashad Evans, but Jones filled his teammates spot after “Suga” was forced to pull out with an injury.

Also appearing on the UFC 128 card will be former WEC Featherweight champion Urijah Faber squaring off against Eddie Wineland.  In addition, fan favorite and former PRIDE monster Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic will look to maintain relevancy against the streaking Brendan Schaub.

I will give a quick rundown of what I believe are the best betting opportunities on Saturday’s card.  Make sure to check out MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 128 odds to stay up to date on the current lines, as well as MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 129 Pros’ Picks to see where some very intelligent MMA minds stand.  Enjoy the fights!

Jon Jones – MMAMoneyLine (-180 on Sportsbook)

I thought a Rua/Evans fight would be a tough call.  Honestly (and sorry PRIDE fans), I’d be pretty surprised if Shogun can get the better of the young and hungry Jon Jones this weekend.  I have the utmost respect for Mauricio Rua, and believe he truly can beat any 205er in the world.  With that being said, I’d gladly take Jon Jones over any Light Heavyweight anywhere…if Fedor dropped to 205 I’d take Bones.

Jon Jones is an impressive physical specimen, first and foremost.  He has an inhuman reach, is strong as an ox, and is as explosive as any mixed martial artist I’ve seen in a while.  His striking lacks polish, but he throws the kitchen sink at every opponent he faces.  Possibly the best thing going for Bones is that he has the balls to use some of these strikes at this level of competition.  Striking aside, Jones is an accomplished wrestler who has been able to cut through the likes of Vladimir Matyushenko, Jake O’Brien, Matt Hamill, Brandon Vera, and Ryan Bader with ease.

The only questions about Jones’ game that haven’t been answered are how his stamina holds up and if he can take a punch (or kick).  Jones’ stamina looked fine against a tough as nails Stephan Bonnar in 2009, and Greg Jackson isn’t exactly known as a coach who doesn’t prepare his fighters for 3 rounds.  Concerning his chin….we don’t know.  However, I feel comfortable saying someone with his youth, structure, and determination can weather a storm or two.  Don’t get me wrong…not many people will be able to withstand a clean shot from Shogun.

Mauricio Rua has looked fantastic in his last two fights against Lyoto Machida.  Those fights went a long way in dispelling his awful fights against Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman.  We know what we are going to get from Shogun…and for those calling out a submission win for the champ, please stop.  It’s not going to happen.  Truth be told, Lyoto Machida and Quinton Jackson are both overrated in my opinion.  The Machida fight was a good matchup for Shogun.  I think his latest victory has put his stock up higher than it should be.

From where I sit, Jones will be able to outwork, out muscle, and out grapple Rua.  If Rua lands a strong strike, it could be all over.  Besides that, his only shot at winning is literally hanging dozens of damaging leg kicks on Jones.  Jones is Brock Lesnar in this fight….but Shogun Rua isn’t Cain Velasquez, he’s Randy Couture.  Jones either drops Rua with a strike or takes him down and uses his violent ground and pound to put this puppy to bed in the late first or early second round…I’ll go second.

The kid is going to be champ for a while.  The only thing that stands in his way of a title run is his mental state:  can he take stress, constant criticism, Rashad Evans nonsense, and the big spotlight?  He hasn’t reacted well to it thus far in my opinion.

Brendan Schaub – MMAMoneyLine (-240 on Sportsbook)

A guy wearing a PRIDE shirt is probably deleting MMAMoneyLine from his favorites as we speak.  Guys…Cro Cop is done.  He has been done for a while.  He was one of my favorite fighters when he was in Japan and it was a glorious day when I saw the “Cro Cop coming to the UFC” graphic a few years ago.  However, you have to look at these kind of situations with your brain instead of your heart.  Cro Cop was able to beat Pat Barry who broke pretty much every bone one needs to win a fight, Anthony Perosh who was brought in on ten minutes notice and literally has no striking ability, and Mostapha al Turk who lost mostly because of an eye poke.

Brendan Schaub, on the other hand, was able to utterly dominate Gabriel Gonzaga (who knocked Filipovic out).  I’m not going to sit here and insult your intelligence by saying the victories over Chris Tuchscherer and Chase Gormley are of the “quality win” variety, but the kid has potential.  He has a good build, reliable stamina, solid striking, and good grappling.  Besides his skill set, Schaub has exactly what intangibles he needs to beat a guy like Cro Cop.  He is young and hungry, humble yet not in awe of the legend, and confident in himself.

Schaub will outwork Cro Cop on the feet because Mirko has been slow to pull the trigger in every fight save Anthony Perosh.  Schaub will connect in the 2nd round and put the legend away.  If Mirko pulls this out, I will be celebrating as it would be a great story.  But I’m not gonna lie guys, I think it’s a stretch.  Schaub anywhere better than -300 is a gift.

Kurt Pellegrino – MMAMoneyLine (+130 on BetDSI)

I always liked Kurt Pellegrino.  He is a fighter of the Clay Guida mold:  a guy who doesn’t have all the skill in the world but constantly pulls out victories due to his toughness, work rate, and determination.  Although he dropped a close decision to George Sotiropoulos in July 2010, he looked fantastic against one of the fastest rising Lightweights in the UFC.  He will be giving a marked size advantage to Gleison Tibau, who is one of the biggest if not the biggest 155er in the division.

Tibau is a very well rounded fighter:  high level BJJ, impressive wrestling, and good striking.  It is worth noting that he is very inconsistent and doesn’t have the best top control in the world.  Like Pellegrino, he has faced some stiff competition in the UFC Lightweight division, so experience will not be a factor in this fight.

On paper, Tibau looks like he can out muscle and out grapple Pellegrino.  In reality, Pellegrino is going to get the better of the striking exchanges and be very difficult to hold down.  I don’t expect Pellegrino to quit until the last bell rings.  I see this fight going to a close decision with the underdog Pellegrino edging Tibau due to better striking and being more active.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Jones/TKO/2

Faber/SUB/1

Shalorus/UD

Marquardt/SUB/2

Schaub/TKO/ 3

Cane/UD

Barboza/KO/1

Almeida/SD

Pellegrino/SD

Benavidez/SUB/1

Koch/UD

Catone/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Penn – 1.5 u. at +170 on BetDSI

Jones – 2 u. at

Schaub – 2 u. at

Pellegrino – .5 u. at

Shalourus – .5 u. at