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This Saturday’s UFC 123 – Machida VS. Rampage takes place in Auburn Hills, Michigan.  The main event, which may very well be a #1 contender match up, will feature two former UFC Light Heavyweight champions in Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida.  Filling out the rest of this Saturday’s main card is a rubber match between two MMA legends in Matt Hughes and BJ Penn and a very important Lightweight scrap between George Sotiropoulos and Joe Lauzon.

There are some solid betting opportunities for UFC 123, as I see some fighters being clearly overvalued.  Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for tomorrow’s UFC 123.  Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on the UFC 123 odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 123 Pros’ Picks.

Phil Davis – Mike Hammersmith -525 on SportBet)

One of the best prospects to step into the cage at 205lbs, “Mr Wonderful” Phil Davis has gone undefeated in his young career, and used his early fights wisely to gain precious ring time. Having added an incredible striking arsenal in a very short time, Davis has become a complete fighter, and will be a real handful for anyone in this division. His opponent is veteran fighter Tim Boetsch, who made his return to the UFC following a successful stint in the regional circuit, and was victorious in his last bout against Todd Brown.

While everyone loves Boetsch’s bout with David Heath for his “Barbarian Toss”, the fact of the matter is, he’s a simple fighter with a couple of unique moves in his arsenal. Once you get past the uppercut leads and front kicks, Boetsch isn’t any more dangerous than the slew of strikers at 205lbs, and makes for another step for Davis on his way to the top of the division. Look for Davis to gain a little more ring time by working his stand-up and fast take downs on an overwhelmed Boetsch, walking away with another victory. Even with a line like -525, this is a fight Davis essentially can’t lose, and makes for one of the best conservative bets in a long time.

Gerald Harris – Mike Hammersmith (-255 on SportBet)

Playing the roll of welcoming committee for the fourth fight in a row, Gerald Harris will face UFC new-comer Maiquel Falcao on the main card. Harris has done well for himself since talking his way into the UFC, with three stoppage wins in three fights, and will face someone he’s well suited against here.

Maiquel Falcao comes to us from the Chute Boxe camp, and with an impressive record of 25-3 with all but one win by stoppage, seems like a hot prospect on paper. Looking at footage though, we see that Falcao is firmly in the Chute Boxe mold, with a hard-style striking game and relentless pace that won’t do him many favors against a slick wrestler like Harris. Armed with a puncher’s chance, Falcao will play the odds in his UFC debut.

If we’ve learned anything about Chute Boxe fighters, it’s that they don’t hold up outside of the lower-level Brazilian MMA world. While Falcao could land a KO shot early, Harris is far too patient to rush into anything, and his takedowns should be all he needs to win this fight. Look for a fast shot and fast finish by Harris to finish this one in the first, or early second round.  Wait til after the weigh-ins here as money has been coming in for Falcao steadily,and should lead to great odds for Harris.

Aaron Simpson – Mike Hammersmith (+145 on BetOnline)

In another tremendously close fight, Aaron “A-Train” Simpson will take on fellow wrestler Mark Munoz in huge fight for both men. With Simpson coming off a high-profile loss to Chris Leben, and Munoz coming off a loss to Yushin Okami, this is a chance for two similar fighters to come out at the top of the heap.

Both men came out of the box with stellar wrestling credentials and proved to have heavy hands in those early bouts, but have found need of polish as they stepped into the middle of the UFC pack. While Munoz is a bit young and better conditioned, Simpson has the advantage of freakish accuracy with his hands and has run through the majority of his opponents to date with his novice, yet powerful stand-up skills. With Munoz having the higher ceiling of the two, it’ll be interesting to see where both men stand come fight time.

With the wrestling contest likely being a wash, we’ll have a striking match on our hands here. While Munoz is a bit more polished in the striking department, Simpson is an absolute horror in the first few minutes of a fight and Munoz chin has been found faulty in the past. This is a close bout, but one I think Simpson can take in the first couple minutes if he’s true to form, and one worth the risk at +145.

Dennis Hallman – MMAMoneyLine (+135 on BetUS)

I have to admit…I was pretty shocked to see Dennis Hallman as the underdog here.  Karo Parisyan will be making his return to the octagon after close t a year hiatus.  In his last fight against Dong Hyun Kim, he won a very close and controversial decision which was a moot point after his subsequent failed drug test.  After the Kim fiasco, Parisyan pulled out of a fight with Dustin Hazelett at the last minute, sparking Dana White to publicly say Karo would never fight in the UFC again.  Lucky for Parisyan fans, White has a short memory when it comes to kicking fighters out of the UFC.

Karo Parisyan is deceptively strong, very experienced, and has some of the best Judo in MMA.  However, his mental strength is a huge question mark.  In his most recent fight for the Impact FC promotion, he requested his fight be moved from the co-main event slot to the curtain jerker due to his anxiety.  Unfortunately, there is no avoiding the bright lights for a surely-packed, start studded UFC 123.  For further evidence on how a fighter’s mental game effects his performance, watch Sonnen/Filho II.

Karo Parisyan aside, Dennis Hallman has looked very good in his most recent UFC stint.  Hallman, one of the most veteran guys on the UFC roster, decisioned the talented Ben Saunders in August.  Although his return fight to the UFC against John Howard was a late knockout loss, Hallman dominated the fight to that point.

Stylistically, it is going to be difficult for either guy to finish.  Karo wins more than half of his fights by submission, and Hallman hasn’t been submitted in his 50+ fight career.  Hallman has 32 submission victories on his record, but Parisyan has yet to be submitted in his career.  This fight is very likely to go to a decision, where Hallman’s condition and recent activity should give him the advantage late.

If this fight were to happen without any obvious mental issues, I think Parisyan would win this fight in the clinch.  Hallman found success against Howard and Saunders with clinch work and take downs, but Parisyan is a monster in the clinch.  Since both of these guys are far from impressive on the feet, this fight will be fought in the clinch and on the ground.  While I can definitely see Parisyan throwing Hallman in the clinch, I can also see Hallman taking Parisyan down.  I think Karo wins the first round, and his conditioning fails him against a very tough opponent in the second and third en route to a decision loss.  I like Superman’s odds as an underdog, as there is no way I can bet on Parisyan in his current state.

BJ Penn – MMAMoneyLine (-160 on SportBet)

BJ Penn and Matt Hughes have many similar situations throughout their fight career.  Besides being legends of MMA, both guys were once unbeatable champions in their respective weight classes.  Both fighters have also been deemed “over the hill” when knocked off of their thrones by very deserving champions in Frankie Edgar and George St. Pierre.  This weekend is the perfect time for Penn and Hughes to have the final fight of their three fight series.

Hughes comes into this fight with momentum; he was the underdog against Ricardo Almeida when he submitted him in August.  Before the Almeida fight, his performances against Renzo Gracie and Matt Serra were widely criticized, albeit victorious.  Penn is coming into this fight with absolutely no momentum; he lost a razor thin decision to Frankie Edgar in April and botched his chance at redemption in August.  In addition, Penn lost to Hughes in their last meeting.

I think momentum matters less in this fight because of the level of professionalism both guys enjoy.  Penn and Hughes are consummate veterans who are a little “long in the tooth” to deal with the same pressure and anxiety that most fighters face.  This fight comes down to two things:  skill and determination.  Skill wise, BJ Penn has superior striking and submissions while Matt Hughes enjoys a wrestling and strength advantage.  Contrary to popular belief, I don’t think we have to worry about either guy’s gas tank.  As far as determination goes, Matt Hughes has little problem getting up for a fight considering his uber-competitive nature.  I think BJ Penn is pissed and embarrassed at his last two performances, and is very focused going into this weekend.

Bluntly put, Matt Hughes isn’t Frankie Edgar.  Edgar has dynamic, frustrating striking coupled with blinding speed that is difficult for any Lightweight to deal with.  Hughes is a rudimentary striker whose attack is slow, calculated, and powerful.  For Hughes to win this fight, he is going to have to take BJ down and not get submitted.  Edgar was able to take Penn down more times than Penn has been taken down in his entire career, but most of that can be attributed to Edgar’s flawless synthesis of striking and take downs.  Penn won’t have to worry about Hughes’ striking, making defending the take down much easier.  Say what you will, but Penn is still one of the hardest guys to put on the mat in MMA.

Best case scenario for Hughes is that he gets the fight to the floor from a take down or the clinch.  He then still has to deal with the fact that he is laying on top of arguably the greatest American BJJ practitioner alive.  I have no problem assuming that Penn will dominate this fight standing, stand up quickly when taken down, or find a submission in a scramble or from the bottom.  Most likely, this fight ends with a decisive decision in Penn’s favor.  I still like the former Lightweight and Welterweight champ at -160, and bravo for those who got him when he was actually an underdog when the line first came out.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Machida/UD

Penn/UD

Sotiropoulos/SUB/2

Davis/SUB/1

Harris/TKO/2

Foster/SD

Simpson/UD

Hallman/UD

Griffin/SD

Kelly/TKO/3

Barboza/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Penn – 2 u. at +105 on Sportsbook

Simpson – .5 u. at +120 on Bodog

Foster – 1 u. at -140 on Sportsbook

Hallman -1 u. at +125 on Bodog

Hallman/O’Brien/Lullo – .25 on BetUS (a guy can hope, can’t he?)

WEC 52 – Faber VS. Mizugaki takes place tonight in Las Vegas.  On the second to last WEC card, former WEC Featherweight champion Urijah Faber will be dropping to Bantamweight to take on Takeya Mizugaki.  In addition, Team Alpha Male up and comer Chad Mendes will square off against BJJ ace Javier Vazquez.

The last two WEC cards look to be very exciting.  As a long time fan of the promotion, I hope the fans tune in and the fighters put their best game forward (which they generally do).  As always, myself and Mike Hammersmith will give our takes on the best bets for tonight’s WEC 52 event.  Make sure to keep up to date on the WEC 52 odds and check out the WEC 52 Pros’ Picks.

Joseph Benavidez – Mike Hammersmith -210 on SportBet)

Coming off a failed, but very exciting title bid against Dominick Cruz, Joseph Benavidez will get back into the swing of things in November. His opponent is stand-out fighter Wagnney Fabiano, whom has made a recent trek to 135lbs and has taken two decisions against some of the division’s lower-level opponents.

Yves Jabouin – Mike Hammersmith +190 on Bodog)

A potential stand-up bout for the ages, Hawaiian slugger Brandon Visher will take on Canadian Whirlwind Yves Jabouin in a real test of power vs. speed.  Both men are coming off losses, with Visher being dominated by the razor-sharp striking of Tyler Toner, while Jabouin was on the losing end of a spectacular bout with Mark Hominick.

Javier Vazquez – Mike Hammersmith (-250 on SportBet)

A highly-underrated veteran of the fight game, Javier Vazquez will test his mat work against Team Alpha Males rookie prospect in Chad Mendes.  Both men are amazing grapplers in their own right, with Mendes having the kind of wrestling to shut down just about anyone at this weight, while Vazquez brings one of the most well-rounded grappling games on the planet.

Mike McDonald – MMAMoneyLine (-115 on BetUS/Bodog)

As per MMAJunkie:  “the 19-year-old McDonald is riding a streak of three-straight knockout stoppages of Cole Escovedo, Manny Tapia and Carlos Garces. In his most recent outing, the Modesto, Calif., native claimed the Tachi Palace Fights bantamweight title in July while avenging his lone career defeat with a brutal win over Escovedo.”

Both Mike McDonald and Clint Godfrey are solid prospects with a future in the UFC’s Bantamweight division.  However, in this fight I like McDonald.  Godfrey showed a few things in the Wagnney Fabiano fight:  he is willing to shoot on anyone, he has a good sprawl, and he has good BJJ.  With that being said, he did not look good on the feet.  If McDonald can keep this standing, he has the striking power to end this fight with one punch.  If Godfrey takes McDonald down, he has the submission chops to deal with him there as well.

I expect this fight to be close, as the odds suggest.  In the end, I expect McDonald to live up to his hype.  Although Godfrey does have the ability to wrestle a decision here, I’m going with the WEC newcomer.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Faber/UD

Mendes/UD

Koch/UD

Benavidez/TKO/3

Page/KO/2

Davis/SD

McDonald/TKO/2

Swanson/UD

Micklewright/UD

Njokuani/TKO/2

Jabouin/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Jabouin – .5 u. at +190 on Bodog

McDonald – 1 u. at -125 on Sportsbook

UFC 122 – Marquardt VS. Okami takes place this Saturday, November 13th, in Oberhausen, Germany.  The Chael Sonnen steroid controversy has led to the shuffling of this main event.  Originally, Vitor Belfort was to take on Yushin Okami for #1 Middleweight contender status.  However, now that Sonnen is out of an instant rematch with Anderson Silva, Vitor has been promoted to a title fight at UFC 126 while Nate Marquardt has stepped in to fight the tough Japanese fighter to headline UFC 122.

There are a lot of new faces on this card, as is the norm for overseas UFC events.  With these new faces come possible betting potential.  Myself and Mike Hammersmith will take a look at the three best bets for this weekend’s UFC card.  In addition to our best bets, make sure to keep up to date on the UFC 122 odds and UFC 122 Pros’ Picks.

Nate Marquardt – Mike Hammersmith -210 on Bookmaker)

There are certain niche styles that make a fighter nearly impossible to beat for some, and easy pickings for others, and Okami has one such style. His lengthy striking and unmovable base has made him a nightmare for limited fighters like Jason MacDonald and Dean Lister, but Marquardt will suffer no such issues with the Japanese striker. Armed with huge power on the feet and underrated combination attacks, Marquardt should be able to stick and move on Okami, land power shots, and ultimately defeat Okami at his own game. At -210, Marquardt makes a fantastic anchor bet for this night of fights.

Jorge Rivera – Mike Hammersmith -115 on Bodog)

Jorge Rivera and Alessio Sakara are both old hands in the UFC, and will clash for the first time in a guaranteed slug fest. Rivera has had personal tragedy in his life in the last year, but with his confidence returned following a 3-0 run and beautiful victory over Nate Quarry, he will look to move forward in his career. His opponent is the notoriously hot and cold Alessio Sakara, who is himself on a three-fight win streak following a beating of the terribly dehydrated James Irvin in his last bout.

Vladimir Matyushenko – Mike Hammersmith (-270 on Bodog)

Overseas events always include a lot of new talent, and UFC 122 is no exception. One such new arrival comes to us in the Light Heavyweight division, as 18-6 Alexandre Ferreira makes his octagon debut. With twelve years in the sport, and a slew of submission grappling accomplishments, Ferreira comes into this fight looking like a real killer on paper, but will find out the hard way that paper doesn’t do much fighting. His opponent is another rugged veteran in Vladimir Matyushenko, who has managed to hold his own since returning to the UFC, and will have every advantage against newcomer Ferreira.

Looking closely at Ferreira, we immediately see issues with this match-up. A muscle-bound BJJ practitioner, the 5’7″ Ferreira will find himself at a huge height disadvantage against everyone in this division, including the average-sized Matyushenko. This leaves him well outside his comfortable shooting zone, meaning his take downs will be a slower than they need to be in the MMA arena. We also notice that while his record is impressive in a cursory sense, there are no submissions from bottom on his record, or knockouts. This leads us to believe that he’ll be depending on those take downs to get anything done in his fights, which is confirmed with the footage found online.

If a take down is your only hope of victory, you’d definitely want to avoid fighting someone like Matyushenko. While Matyushenko has started to look his age in recent bouts, the Belarusian fighter is still a powerful and technically sound wrestler, who has the simple striking game to fluster someone like Ferreira. Combine this with Ferreira’s over-sized frame and we’re sure to have a very tired Brazilian on our hands midway through this fight. Matyushenko has never been a great finisher, so I expect this one to go to a clear decision for Matyushenko after a match spent sprawling and sticking jabs into his opponent’s face.

Goran Reljic – MMAMoneyLine (-115 on BetUS/Bodog)

Both Goran Reljic and his opponent, Krzysztof Soszynski, are coming off losses.  It is possible that both of these guys are on the UFC chopping block, although a Reljic loss is more likely to send him packing than a Soszynski loss.  This fight comes down to which fighter has more tools to be successful.  Reljic’s main weakness is his take down defense, as seen in the CB Dollaway fight.  However, Soszynski is not much of a shooter; he is a fighter who likes to box and clinch his opponents.

Reljic will have the advantage in both the striking and the submission department.  In addition, he isn’t the best guy to get into a clinch with.  Soszynski will have a strength advantage, but I am starting to question his chin after getting knocked out by Stephan Bonnar.

If Soszynski’s camp is smart, they will have told him to look for an early take down.  However, I have to assume that Soszynski will come in looking to box and clinch.  He will get hit by Reljic, who has the potential to cause some real damage on the feet.  I think a late Reljic stoppage or a clear decision is a good bet.

Karlos Vemola – MMAMoneyLine (-105 on SportBet)

Someone is an underdog against Seth Petruzelli!  A few notable items here:  Petruzelli did look good in the first round of his last fight with Ricardo Romero, but ultimately gassed in the second and submitted to an armbar.  Petruzelli’s crowning MMA achievements have been knocking out Kimbo Slice (…) and beating a 106 year old Dan Severn.  Nothing tells me he is going to be able to overwhelm a beast like Karlos Vemola, either on the feet or on the floor.  Although Vemola did not look great against Jon Madsen, nobody really looks great against Jon Madsen.  Vemola has never been submitted, never been knocked out, is dropping down from Heavyweight, and will have a huge strength advantage.  With that information alone, I’m happy taking him at -120 or better.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Marquardt/UD

Rivera/KO/2

Siver/UD

Sadollah/UD

Reljic/TKO/2

Matyushenko/UD

Vemola/SUB/2

Noke/SD

Osipczak/SUB/1

Rocha/SUB/2

Krauss/SD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Rivera – 1 u. at -115 on Bodog

Reljic – 1 u. at -115 on Bodog

Vemola – 1 u. at -105 on SportBet