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UFC 114 – Rampage VS. Evans takes place this Saturday in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The main event will be the long awaited epic grudge match between former UFC Light Heavyweight champions and TUF coaches Rashad Evans and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.  The winner will get the next shot at the 205 lb. belt.  Also appearing on the card are Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Michael Bisping, Todd Duffee and Diego Sanchez.

As always, Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations.  Here are myself and Mike’s top plays for this weekend’s UFC 114 card. To check out Mike’s picks for the full card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 114 – Rampage VS. Evans Pros’ Picks.

Cyrille Diabate – Mike Hammersmith (+300 on Bodog/BetUS)

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira – Mike Hammersmith (-550 on BetUS)

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira should be no stranger to fight fans, and after his thorough destruction of Luiz Cane, Nogueira was set to take on Forrest Griffin while on the bullet train to the top of the division. Unfortunately, Griffin was sidelined with an injury, and after several high-profile fighters turned the bout down, a replacement was found in lightly-regarded Jason Brilz.

For those unfamiliar, Brilz is a part-time fighter, part-time wrestling coach, and full-time firefighter, who has fought in dark matches for the UFC for some time. He’s known for having heavy, although wild punches, and some of the most suffocating wrestling in the division, with both strong clinch and double leg takedowns.

Although Brilz is a tough fight for many, Nogueira is possibly the worst fight in the division for him, due to his world-class boxing and BJJ skills. No matter where this bout goes, Brilz is going to be in trouble, and even at -550, Nogueira makes a wise bet.

Melvin Guillard – MMAMoneyLine (-325 on Sportsbook)

There’s two kinds of mixed martial artists who beat Melvin Guillard:  BJJ aces and high level wrestlers.  Waylon Lowe is neither.  “The Young Assassin” is a gigantic Lightweight  who has as much KO power and athleticism as anyone in the division.  Along with his dangerous striking, his takedown defense has come a long way.  Although Melvin doesn’t have the best sprawl in the world, it is very difficult to keep him on his back.  The biggest knock on Guillard’s game has always been his mental state and submission defense.  His recent time spent with Greg Jackson should have shrunk both of those holes considerably.

Waylon Lowe is making his UFC debut on short notice against Melvin Guillard…rough deal.  Lowe is a decent wrestler, but will not have what it takes to keep Guillard on his back for three rounds.  If Lowe can secure a takedown on Guillard, look for Melvin to use his hips to escape or simply use the cage to get back to his feet.

As Lowe’s gas tank wanes from trying to control a guy like Guillard, look for the New Orleans native to take advantage and unleash his quick, powerful hands en route to a 2nd round KO.  If you were lucky enough to get Guillard in the -280 range, nice work.  I believe he is still a very good bet at  -325.

Dong Hyun Kim – MMAMoneyLine (+115 on SportsInt.)

I just flat out don’t think much of Amir Sadollah as a fighter.  He does have good Muay Thai, underrated submissions and a difficult frame, but there are still a ton of holes in his game.  In his biggest wins, he beat Phil Baroni in the twilight of his career, the submission defenseless CB Dollaway and Brad Blackburn…who apparently didn’t remember he was fighting that night.

Dong Hyun Kim is far from a can being fed to a TUF winner.  He is still technically undefeated because of the overturned Parisyan decision.  Stun Gun is a dangerous Judoka who’s grappling is simply on a different level.  When you have a win over TJ Grant, Matt Brown and should have had a clean win over Karo Parisyan, it says a lot about your grappling ability.  Although Sadollah does have the range to keep Kim at bay with front kicks,  he won’t be able to keep it up for 15 minutes.

Stun Gun is a tough fighter, and Sadollah has no KO power.  Because of this, Kim will have no problem taking a shot to get inside, where he will be able to control the physically inferior Sadollah.  Once Kim gets his hands on the former TUF winner, he will drain his gas tank and control him en route to a dominant decision.  Kim is good money at EVEN or better.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Evans/UD

Nogueira/TKO/2

Bisping/SD

Duffee/KO/1

Sanchez/SUB/2

Kim/UD

Escudero/TKO/1

Forbes/UD

Guillard/KO/2

Cane/TKO/3

Riley/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Evans – 1 u. at +120 on Sportsbook

Kim – 1 u. at +115 on Bodog

Guillard – 2 u. at -225 on Bodog

In case you missed MMAMoneyLine’s picks for UFC 113, we’re doing something a little different around here.  Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations.

Here are myself and Mike’s top two picks for this weekend’s Strikeforce St. Louis – Heavy Artillery card. To check out Mike’s picks for the full Strikeforce card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce St. Louis – Heavy Artillery Pros’ Picks.

Antwain Britt – Mike Hammersmith (+150 on Bodog/Sportsbook)

Let me start this by saying I’ve been watching Randleman fight since UFC 19, and as a fan, have been along for the ride in his biggest wins and saddest moments, both inside and outside the cage.  The most important part of sports betting is taking your heart out of any decisions you make though, and oftentimes I find myself laying good money down on whoever happens to be standing across from Randleman in the cage.  While Randleman has been on a steady decline over the years, and with a skill set that is swiftly falling behind the curve in even middle-tier organizations, this is actually a fight he has a chance to win.

Enter Roger Gracie, who is one of the greatest Heavyweight grapplers on the planet, and a man who has thoroughly dominated ADCC and Mundials alike.  While Gracie can undoubtedly hold his own against anyone on the mat, submission grappling isn’t MMA, and he’s going to be in a rough fight with Randleman.

Randleman brings decent boxing skills, high-level wrestling, and most importantly, a world of experience in MMA and big-stage fights.  While I have no doubt Gracie can mop the floor with Randleman on the ground, he’s going to have to force the fight to the mat and will have to deal with fast, competent hands and a gas tank proven to last three rounds. That, combined with his renewed training with Xtreme Couture make Randleman a nice flier at +350.

Alistair Overeem – MMAMoneyLine (-270 on BetOnline)

Hey look, the Strikeforce Heavyweight champion is actually fighting…how novel.  All jabs aside, this fight is big for both fighters.  Overeem is looking to get a shot against Fedor Emelianenko; a fight where a win for Overeem could really cement his MMA legacy.  Brett Rogers is pretty fortunate in my opinion to get such a high level fight coming off a loss, even though that loss was to the aforementioned Last Emperor.

We all know Rogers’ strengths.  The Grim has one punch KO power and good size.  He was able to use that size in the fight against an undersized Emelianenko to his advantage before getting dropped.  However, the 2010 Alistair Overeem is far from 230 lbs.

Overeem is the better striker…Demolition Man is one of the best Heavyweight strikers in MMA.  He also has underrated grappling skills and has a sound arsenal of chokes.  Alistair’s devastating striking also translates well on the ground, where his ground and pound is dangerous as his knees.

Rogers has a win over a glass chinned Andrei Arlovski and a hard found loss to a 30 pounds lighter Fedor Emelianenko.  In my opinion, Rogers is a hell of a prospect but still overrated right now.  Overeem has the power and technical acumen to land that same punch that Emelianenko floored Rogers with.  I haven’t even entertained the thought that Rogers can beat Overeem here.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Overeem/KO/2

Arlovski/UD

Gracie/SUB/1

Souza/SUB/2

Ribeiro/SD

Britt/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Britt – 1 u. at +150 on Sportsbook

Overeem – 1.5 u. at -270 on BetOnline

Overeem/Souza/Gracie parlay – .5 u. on Bodog

Here at MMAMoneyLine, we’re going to do something a little different with event predictions and betting analysis.  MMAMoneyLine is committed to giving readers the best betting tools, analysis and recommendations available, therefore I will be getting some help from a very knowledgeable MMA writer on future betting analysis and recommendations.

Fellow MMA betting enthusiast, Mike Hammersmith of MMAMafia fame (no, not the guys who screwed Nate Quarry), is going to help MMAMoneyLine out by giving his best picks for the upcoming UFC 113 card.  We expect to have the sound fight analysis of Mr. Hammersmith for upcoming UFC, WEC and Strikeforce events.

Here are myself and Mike’s top two picks for this Saturday’s UFC 113 – Machida VS. Rua II card.  To check out Mike’s picks for the full UFC 113 card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 113 Pros’ Picks.

Marcus Davis – Mike Hammersmith (-435 on Bookmaker)

It’s not often I’d recommend a bet around -450, but I do make some exceptions. Marcus “The Irish Hand Grenade” Davis is a staple of the Welterweight division, and while he’s been treading water lately, the UFC has thrown him a fight he can’t reasonably lose. Enter Jonathan “The Road Warrior” Goulet, a former UFC fighter out of Canada made famous for being KO’d by Duane “Bang” Ludwig in what should have been the fastest KO in UFC history, if it wasn’t for a time keeping error.

The problems with Goulet winning this fight are many, as he has a suspect chin, a lack of takedown ability, and hasn’t fought in well over a year. One issue that folks might not realize is that Goulet has an issue with his right eye that makes it difficult for him to see left hand punches, and considering Marcus Davis is one of the most solid southpaw punchers in the division, this is a recipe for disaster with Goulet.

All the cards are stacked against Goulet, who’s only chance to win is to crack the considerable chin of Davis before Davis does the same to him. -435 isn’t going to pay out a lot, but under the circumstances, this is almost free money.

John Salter – Mike Hammersmith (+145 on 5Dimes)

A decorated wrestler out of Alabama, John Salter made his UFC debut on a whooping four days notice against fellow newcomer Gerald Harris, losing via TKO in the third round in an exhausting fight. With a full training camp under his belt, Salter was set to face Nick Catone in Montreal, but having suffered a back injury in training, Catone was forced to withdraw. After a small shuffling of opponents, Canadian fighter and former UFC Middleweight Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald will step up on short notice.

While fans might remember MacDonald for his early domination of the division and spirited bout with Demian Maia, with the pace this sport’s talent moves, it’s often wise to look at a fighter’s competition and see where they’ll stand in the division upon returning. Having gone 5-5 in the Octagon, only two of those wins are against current UFC fighters; both of whom are barely treading water in the division. This shows that MacDonald is clearly behind the learning curve of the division, and coupled with his having fought a grueling three round bout on April 23rd, you really have to question what MacDonald will have in the tank coming into this fight.

Salter brings superior striking skills, a strong enough wrestling pedigree to halt MacDonald’s takedowns, and a full training camp to condition him for a long bout. It might not be pretty, but I feel Salter has the skills to take a hard-fought decision over MacDonald, and at +145, he makes one of the best underdog picks on the card.

Matt Mitrione – MMAMoneyLine (-110 on SportBet)

When the odds first came out for the Matt Mitrione/Kimbo Slice fight, I was stunned.  It still seems as though the general public thinks Kimbo is a capable mixed martial artist.  I like Kimbo a lot, but I don’t think he’s a UFC level fighter; he has powerful hands and improving wrestling, but he’s still lacking punching technique, varied striking and a chin.  He also has a very tough opponent in Matt Mitrione.

I know three things about Matt Mitrione:  he hits like a truck, he has an iron jaw and he’s not as easy to control from the top as most people think.  In the TUF fight against Scott Junk, Mitrione was able to drop a very tough guy on several occasions and take a ton of punishment.  Kimbo’s chin is questionable and might very well get exposed here if Mitrione hits him anywhere close to flush.

Many people are looking to “Kimbo The Wrestler” to win this fight via takedown and ground and pound.  Matt Mitrione isn’t Houston Alexander.  Mitrione is no Dean Lister, but Kimbo isn’t going to be able to control him for long if he does get a takedown.  Marcus Jones, a huge fighter with a much better ground game than Kimbo, wasn’t able to keep Meathead on the mat.

I see this fight unfolding one way:  Kimbo getting knocked out via ugly yet powerful Mitrione punch.  If Kimbo pulls this off, I’ll be more surprised than when Edgar beat Penn.  Mitrione at -110 looks good to me.

Sam Stout – MMAMoneyLine (-185 on SportBet)

Fresh off his underdog victory against Joe Lauzon, Sam Stout will be looking to climb up that Lightweight ladder against Jeremy Stephens.  It doesn’t take a Joe Rogan to see that this fight is going to be a striking display;  Stout’s refined Muay Thai versus Stephens’ effective brawling.

Stout has 21 professional fights, and hasn’t been knocked out once.  Remember that Stout is a guy who has fought in the UFC for quite some time and almost exclusively stands and trades with opponents.  The kid has terrific striking with as solid of a chin as they make.  Stephens, although a very good Lightweight in his own right, has an uphill battle ahead of him.

Although Stephens has the ability to knock Stout out with the kind of power punch displayed in the dos Anjos fight, I don’t see Stout’s first trip to the smelling salts coming via Jeremy Stephens.  Stout is the better striker, the better all around fighter and the guy who is going to move closer to contention with a win.  Stout at -185 is a very good bet.

 
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Silva/KO/2

Penn/SUB/2

Hughes/UD

Etim/UD

Munoz/KO/1

Davis/TKO/3

Taylor/SD

Story/UD

Veach/TKO/1

Madsen/UD

Johnson/SUB (just because Blackburn looked so awful against Sadollah
 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Etim – 1 u. at +130 on SportBet

Silva/Penn/Veach – .75 u  on Bodog