Author: By Damon Martin

There are plenty of fights happening this weekend at the Ultimate Fighter 17 finale in Las Vegas, with half the card filled up by Octagon veterans.

The main event will pit former WEC champion and perennial contender Urijah Faber against close friend and former training partner Scott Jorgensen. Also in action, the next coach of The Ultimate Fighter will be determined when former Strikeforce women’s champion Miesha Tate battles newcomer Cat Zingano.

Let’s take a look at some of the key matchups on the card that could mean the difference between winning and losing during the latest installment of the UFC Fantasy Pick ‘Em game.

1) Urijah Faber hasn’t lost in a non-title fight – ever. Yep, that’s correct, the former WEC featherweight champion has suffered six defeats over his entire career, but the defeats have only come in championship bouts. Otherwise, Faber is an unstoppable machine who has put away the best of the best at both featherweight and bantamweight throughout his career. That means things don’t bode well for his opponent Scott Jorgensen, who looks to tackle the task of being the first fighter ever without a gold strap being placed around his waist when the fight is over to beat Faber in the cage. It’s tough to argue against those kinds of statistics however, especially considering that Faber has 27 victories overall, and continues to haunt the list of contenders who try to get past him on the way to the title.

2) Another interesting statistic to look at when picking the round and method of victory in the main event is the tendency of both fighters when it comes to finishing, or not finishing for that matter. Both Faber and Jorgensen come from wrestling backgrounds, which many times means that in the heat of the battle they cancel each other out in their biggest strengths. Faber’s favorite way to finish is to catch a submission during a scramble, but Jorgensen has only been submitted once during his entire career and that was in his third professional fight. Add to that, Jorgensen’s other losses have all come by decision, minus his one defeat to Eddie Wineland by knockout. Faber has also captured the third most post fight bonuses in UFC/WEC history, which means if this fight goes all 25 minutes, expect excitement, but maybe not a finish this time around.

3) Miesha Tate didn’t get the nickname “Takedown” over the years for nothing. While she’s recently become “Cupcake,” Tate’s old moniker holds up very well when looking at her style inside the cage. Tate is a wrestler by heart and has been a state champion, and she carried that over into her love of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, where she’s captured titles and medals in several different events. Her opponent Cat Zingano is also a grappler by trade, but Tate has done well against anybody she’s taken to the mat (outside of her loss to current UFC champ Ronda Rousey, and even there she took her back and looked for the finish before falling prey to the armbar). Look for Tate to shoot in early and often and then see what kind of submission defense Zingano has at her disposal.

4) Travis Browne is always looking for the knockout, and that could mean tough times for opponent Gabriel Gonzaga. This heavyweight tilt features two very heavy-handed fighters, but Gonzaga’s background is founded in Jiu-Jitsu and he’s never shy about looking for the lock or hold that will end a fight. This time around however, he’s facing a very tall and very powerful striker with good takedown defense in his back pocket. Through six UFC fights, Browne has never been taken down, and he’s spent the least amount of time on his back of any heavyweight in UFC history. Both fighters are finishers as well, with Browne getting 11 of his 13 wins by knockout or submission, while Gonzaga has won every single fight in his career by finishing his opponent. Don’t expect this one to go to the judges’ scorecards, and unless Gonzaga can catch Browne sleeping on his takedown defense, it’s the Brazilian who might be taking a nap.

5) Expect a finish when former Ultimate Fighter favorite Justin Lawrence meets Daniel Pineda on the undercard. Both of these fighters love a good knockout or submission. Pineda has only seen a decision two times out of his 26 fight career, and while Lawrence has much less experience, he’s put away opponents by both knockout and submission in the past. Lawrence is still developing, and on paper he’s much, much less experienced than Pineda. Don’t forget however that Lawrence spends his days and nights training alongside champions like UFC middleweight king Anderson Silva, and his development is probably coming along at a rapid pace, and that could spell trouble for Pineda on fight night.

This season of the Ultimate Fighter has had more than a few memorable moments.

From Uriah Hall’s spinning kick knockout of Adam Cella that left everybody in the Ultimate Fighter gym with their jaws planted firmly on the floor to Kelvin Gastelum and Dylan Andrews’ improbable runs as the last picks on Team Jones and Team Sonnen, respectively, only to make it all the way to the semifinals this week.

The final four is set, but only two of them will continue on to fight during this weekend’s Ultimate Fighter 17 finale show in Las Vegas.

The first fight will feature a very confident Josh Samman against one of the unlikeliest semifinalists in TUF history, as Kelvin Gastelum looks to tack another victory on his record in a season very few were picking him to even make it past the preliminary fights.

As cocky as he’s been portrayed during the season, Samman has backed it up in the cage with two impressive victories over Tor Troeng and Jimmy Quinlan. Despite some rough going in the early parts of both fights, Samman wasn’t about to give up or back down.

On both occasions, Samman battled back, winning by TKO, and now he’ll try to do the same to Gastelum on Tuesday.

While his background is wrestling, Gastelum showed off his hands during his last bout against Collin Hart, slamming punch after punch en route to a knockout to advance to the finals against Samman.

At this point in the competition, Gastelum can no longer be treated as an underdog, and his confidence has to be swelling with two awe-inspiring victories in a row under his belt. He has to know that Samman is ultra dangerous however, especially if he lets him stick around as the fight wears on.

As odd as it may sound, Gastelum should finally enter a fight in this competition as the favorite due to his overall pedigree and the relatively quick nature with which he got through his last fight, which means he’ll be the fresher of the two competitors. But almost in a reversal of fortune, Samman can pull the upset, as has been the theme all season long and prove that his confidence on day one was justified. Samman’s key here is to stay off his back with Gastelum, and pressure the young Arizona based fighter on the feet. Samman can punch his ticket to the finals if he can use distance and quickness to avoid Gastelum’s power and wrestling.

The other semifinal matchup pits season favorite Uriah Hall against Dylan Andrews.

Hall has decimated both of his opponents en route to this moment. He nearly decapitated Cella in his preliminary round fight, and then dropped Bubba McDaniels with a single punch in his last bout. Dylan Andrews hasn’t had it nearly as easy with two straight decisions, including the need for a third round in his last trip to the Octagon against Luke Barnatt.

Not surprisingly, Hall is the odds on favorite heading into this fight. He is a vicious striker who doesn’t mind taking chances like he did with the spinning kick that left Cella staring at the ceiling lights. His wrestling hasn’t been tested much since the fight against Andy Enz to get into the house several weeks ago, but Hall was effective in his scrambles and submission attempts to show he’s not afraid of the ground game.

The problem that haunts Andrews in this fight beyond the fact that he’s already logged four and a half rounds thus far through two bouts is that his strength is in his striking. Andrews is a slugger, and while that means he can put someone’s lights out with one punch, it also puts him in range of Hall’s arsenal of weaponry.

The safe pick here is clearly Hall because he’s shown zero weaknesses thus far in the competition, and after sending his last opponent out in an ambulance, he surely has a mental edge on anybody he faces right now. But just like Gastelum, Andrews has been a surprise all season long and just when somebody decides to underestimate him, he’s pulled off another upset.

It’s a showcase of international talent from around the world on display at UFC on FUEL TV 9 this weekend, and although there has been a change to the main event, a light heavyweight showdown will still lead the card Saturday from Sweden.

In addition to the main event, a legendary last name gets back in the Octagon as Ryan Couture debuts after moving to the UFC from Strikeforce to face former Ultimate Fighter winner and TUF: The Smashes coach Ross Pearson, while heavyweights Matt Mitrione and Phil De Fries both look to get back on track after recent losses.

There’s also a very intriguing bantamweight matchup between one of Dana White’s favorite fighters to watch – Brad Pickett – as he takes on “The Hulk” Mike Easton.

With the closing to the upcoming UFC Pick ‘Em game for UFC on FUEL TV 9 just days away, let’s look at a few of the key fights to keep an eye on this weekend:

1) Being a late replacement is always a tough job for any fighter, but for Ilir Latifi he may have been handed a golden sack of coins in one hand and a stick of dynamite in the other. Latifi replaces his teammate Alexander Gustafsson on just four days notice with the tough task of facing former Strikeforce champion Gegard Mousasi this weekend in Sweden. The golden opportunity is because no one knows Latifi and he has a chance in a single fight to put his name on everyone’s radar. The dynamite however comes in the form of one of the best light heavyweights in the sport. Mousasi is an assassin on the feet, with pinpoint accuracy and knockout power in every appendage he throws at an opponent. Latifi is a solid wrestler, so that could help him on short notice facing Mousasi, who has struggled against grapplers in the past, but it’s no easy task to take the Dutch-trained fighter to the mat. Mousasi will be a huge favorite here, and because it’s his debut fight, a win will earn you another 40 points. He’s going to be a very popular pick, so the rest of the card then becomes key.

2) It’s only been one fight since Ross Pearson returned to lightweight, but the British-born slugger showed why he made a name for himself at 155 pounds before tinkering in the featherweight division for a couple of fights. Pearson demolished fellow Ultimate Fighter coach George Sotiropoulos in his last bout, and throughout his lightweight career he’s always been a dangerous fighter on his feet. Pearson has out-landed every single opponent he’s ever faced at 155 pounds while standing, and he also has the third best significant strikes landed per minute in UFC lightweight history. Pearson is a machine, throwing in great volume and never slowing down. Couture is also a very accurate striker, holding the crown for the best in that category in Strikeforce history. Still, Pearson’s power and accuracy could give Couture nightmares in this fight, and at the volume he throws it could be a long night for the former Strikeforce competitor.

3) Whenever heavyweights get in the cage, the judges are rarely involved. Matt Mitrione hopes to bounce back after a tough loss in his last fight, and he’s got the weapons to take it out on opponent Phil De Fries this weekend. Mitrione is as athletic a heavyweight as there is in the UFC, and when you add in his quickness and explosive striking he’s a tough fight for anybody. Mitrione has great accuracy when striking (5th highest in the UFC’s heavyweight division) and his defense is the best in the entire weight class. He also strikes at a distance and avoids the clinch, which is probably where a grappler like De Fries will want this fight to take place. Also unfortunately for De Fries, his two losses in the UFC have both come from heavy-handed strikers, and he’s facing another one in Mitrione this weekend.

4) One underdog to keep an eye on this weekend is former Ultimate Fighter competitor Akira Corassani. Now, he’s got an awfully tough fight in front of him, as Robbie Peralta comes storming into Sweden with an unblemished record in the UFC and serious knockout power at 145 pounds. Still, Corassani is a tough-as-nails fighter who travels home to Sweden for this card. He also spends his days and nights training under legendary coach Renzo Gracie as well as working with former UFC champion Frankie Edgar and striking phenom Edson Barboza. It’s a tall task to tackle facing an up and coming prospect like Peralta, but with underdog points on the line Corassani might be the way to go.

5) A tight matchup could end up stealing the show when Marcus Brimage takes on proud son of Ireland Conor McGregor. Coming into the fight, McGregor has become a very hot prospect who has fought and won titles in two different weight classes in the past. He’s a nasty striker that throws from all angles and can put an opponent’s lights out in an instant. That said, Marcus Brimage has been here before. He wasn’t supposed to beat Maximo Blanco, and he did. He wasn’t supposed to beat Jim Hettes and he did. Brimage knows what to expect and he’s never one to back down from a challenge. This fight will be no exception. Brimage has taken on strikers and grapplers recently and out dueled them both. He could easily give McGregor a very rude welcome to the UFC this weekend in the same manner.

24 fights and 10 episodes have passed, but only two fights remain before the semifinal matchups will crown the next two competitors who hope to wear The Ultimate Fighter crown on April 13.

After last week’s rousing performances by Dylan Andrews and Kelvin Gastelum, if there’s one sure thing about The Ultimate Fighter this season it’s that there are no sure things. Underdogs have ruled the roost week after week in many of the preliminary round fights, and that trend continued into the quarterfinals.

Knockout king Uriah Hall and the very outspoken Josh Samman hope to avoid that same fate when they face off with Bubba McDaniels and Jimmy Quinlan, respectively, to see which two fighters will remain in the tournament with a hope of becoming the newest Ultimate Fighter winner.

The first quarterfinal showdown will pit Samman against Quinlan in a classic fight of striker vs. grappler.

Of course that’s not to say anyone doesn’t have the skill set to counter the other nor does it mean that one fighter could come in with a whole new game plan set to stun his opponent (hello Kevin Gastelum winning by knockout!), but style wise Samman has to know his way to win is on the feet, and Quinlan’s obvious advantage is on the mat.

All season long, Samman has been more than happy to expel his own virtues, but he backed it up with a knockout over Tor Troeng in his preliminary round fight, and now he gets the chance to do it again. It’s a tough road to travel against Quinlan however, who comes to the show as a four-time All-Conference collegiate wrestler and a multi-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion.

Quinlan was a dark horse favorite when the competition started, and remains as such going into his fight with Samman. His striking is good enough to keep him safe, and his ground game is dangerous enough to make anyone worry about ending up on their backs with Quinlan on top of them.

The fight favors Quinlan, especially if Samman gets over aggressive in his striking, and the season of underdog performances favors the New England area grappler just like when he eliminated Team Jones’ No. 1 pick Clint Hester a few weeks ago.

The second quarterfinal fight pairs Uriah Hall, who now owns the greatest knockout in TUF history with his spinning heel kick to finish Adam Cella earlier in the season, with wild card winner Bubba McDaniels.

There are always going to be favorites during each season of the Ultimate Fighter, and this year Hall is the golden boy. A deadly mix of flashy stand-up, unreal power in hands and feet, and an underrated ground game with scrambles and the ability to get out of bad positions makes Hall a nightmare matchup for almost everyone in this competition.

It’s also hard to ignore the promotion leading into the fight as McDaniels has been seen in commercials as a jumbled mess, not able to get his head right as he tries to prepare for the showdown with Hall.

McDaniels’ problems all seem to come down to mental preparation because when he’s ready and prepared, he could be the best fighter in the entire Ultimate Fighter house. A veteran fighter that trains under famed coach Greg Jackson, which means he’s routinely going rounds with fighters like his coach Jon Jones, and McDaniels is a serious threat to anyone on the right day.

The problem is will that right day happen when he faces the shining gem of TUF 17?

Hall is a bad fight to take on a good day, and if McDaniels isn’t 110-percent when the fight starts, he might soon be the second feature of his opponent’s growing highlight reel. Look for Hall to go head hunting like an executioner during a busy day on Game of Thrones when he faces off with McDaniels as soon as the referee says ‘fight’.

If there was one odds on favorite with the best chance to carry that strategy all the way to the finale, Uriah Hall certainly seems to fit that bill.

The Ultimate Fighter 17 is starting to wind down with the quarterfinal matchups being made and only a few weeks standing between the fighters and the season finale card on April 13 in Las Vegas.

This week there are two quarterfinal matchups, as Team Sonnen’s Luke Barnatt takes on Team Jones’s Dylan Andrews, while Team Jones’ Collin Hart faces off with Team Sonnen’s young upstart Kelvin Gastelum.

Both Barnatt and Andrews were unsuspecting winners in their first round fights, as they took on early favorites in Gilbert Smith Jr. and Zak Cummings. Despite the odds, Barnatt knocked out Smith flat in the second round while Andrews endured some early danger to best Cummings by decision.

A long, rangy fighter standing 6’6″ tall, Barnatt uses his reach extremely well to keep shorter competitors from pressing the action inside on him. He wore down Smith using this very tactic when the smaller grappler just could not get close enough to do any damage in their fight earlier this season.

Barnatt can also toss in some surprising moves, like he did with the flying knee that knocked Smith out in their fight, so expect the unexpected from the Brit. He’s not afraid to mix things up and take some chances, and while that can easily backfire as well, it makes for an exciting fight.

Meanwhile, Andrews had to go through some serious danger in his fight with Zak Cummings to come out on top and make it to the second round. An early scare in the first round almost ended things for him, but Andrews persevered and managed to swing things into his favor as the fight wore on.

The fresher man in this fight is clearly Barnatt, having fought in the first preliminary round matchup and then having plenty of time to heal, work on his weak points, and, best of all, watch every single competitor that came after him in their fights. Andrews will probably want to get this one to the ground to avoid the reach of Barnatt, but if he can’t do that early the struggle could consume him and put the fight into his opponent’s favor.

The second quarterfinal showdown features one of the biggest and strongest competitors on the show, as Collin Hart looks to build on his first round win over Kevin Casey when he takes on a fellow wrestler in Arizona native Kelvin Gastelum, who pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the opening round with his submission victory to finish veteran Bubba McDaniel.

Hart is a huge middleweight, and he used that brute strength and size to overpower and tire Team Sonnen fighter Kevin Casey in their first round fight. While he was disappointed that he couldn’t get the finish, Hart showed that not only does he have knockout power in his hands, but he’s got wrestling in his back pocket, as he managed to control a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt like Casey on his back for the better part of ten minutes.

He may have to use some anti-wrestling this time around, because Gastelum will undoubtedly look to drag this fight to the floor, but leave himself in control and not on the bottom like a turtle stuck on its shell. In his fight with McDaniel, Gastelum was in a dog fight battling for position, but he did a great job winning in the scramble and eventually locking on the fight ending rear naked choke.

This time around, Gastelum may not get the chance to get into those kinds of exchanges with Hart if he can’t get the fight to the ground early. While Hart probably doesn’t match Gastelum in overall grappling skill, his ground control as shown in his first fight proves he doesn’t mind being in those positions, and he trains with a great team at home with the Nor-Cal Fighting Alliance (led by former UFC contender and grappling expert David Terrell).

Look for Hart to control the range, and if the fight does go to the ground, he’ll try to dictate the pace and stay on top as the larger fighter. If there’s one thing this season has proved however, the underdog is never out of the fight and Gastelum has to be the most underrated fighter on the show.

Both fights could produce upsets, so don’t count out Andrews or Gastelum, but the favor going into the fights falls into the corners of Team Sonnen’s Barnatt and Team Jones’ Hart.

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It’s not easy for every fighter to give their absolute best performance during The Ultimate Fighter, but in many past seasons if somebody loses along the way, that’s the end of their hopes of being crowned champion.

Season 11 saw the first introduction of the “wildcard” option, which gave two fighters that lost in preliminary round matches another chance to win and continue on in the competition. The wildcard went away for a couple of seasons, but it has returned and Team Sonnen’s Kevin Casey and Team Jones’ Bubba McDaniel have to be very thankful for that option.

Casey and McDaniel both lost their opening matchups after competing to get into the house, but they were hand selected by their coaches for a second chance at new life and meet this week to determine who earns the eighth and final slot in the quarterfinal round of the tournament.

A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and member of Team Black House, Kevin Casey was an early favorite on the show after fighting in promotions like Strikeforce in the past, but he came out lackluster and just couldn’t catch a spark in his loss to Collin Hart.

The same could be said for Bubba McDaniel, who had a wealth of experience coming onto the show and also serves as a training partner to his coach Jon Jones under the tutelage of famed trainer Greg Jackson in New Mexico, but he struggled to deal with a young, hungry fighter named Kelvin Gastelum and succumbed to a rear naked choke in the second round.

Stylistically it’s pretty easy to tell where these fighters will want this matchup to take place – Kevin Casey is a grappler with powerful submissions, but top control is his game, whereas Bubba McDaniel is a well rounded fighter, but he has to know where his opponent wants this fight to end up.

The psychology has to play a part in this fight as well because as soon as the first fight on the show finished, McDaniel actually called out Casey for the next bout, and while it didn’t actually take place, he now has to back up his words in the cage.

Regardless of the results of the previous fights, McDaniel is still one of the best competitors on the show with his mix of striking and a strong submission game when he needs to utilize it. It appears McDaniel just needs to make sure his head is in the right place at fight time or he can be underwhelming in his performance.

As for Casey, he knows he came out flat in his last fight and that this is his chance to show that was only a fluke performance. He has to be careful not to let the previous call out influence his decision making come fight time however.

On paper, McDaniel should have won his first fight and shouldn’t even be in this position, but still, he’s talented and he’s a veteran. This is his chance to prove he belongs among the eight best fighters in the house, but with that kind of pressure he can either turn into a diamond or crumble into dust.

McDaniel is the favorite here and if he fights to the best of his ability he will get the win, but the supposed top dogs in this show have not fared well thus far.

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