Author: By Dan Downes

Gather round, it’s time for the final Downes Side…of 2012. We’ve shared a lot over the past year, but I think we can all agree on one thing; your UFC fight nights were much richer for having me in it. I always knew I’d make a difference in this world, and, let’s be honest, anyone can be a doctor.

The UFC looks to close 2012 the way it closes every year — with a bang. The action will occur inside the MGM Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada with the main event deciding the heavyweight champion of the world, aka “The Baddest Man on the Planet,” as Junior Dos Santos defends his title against the man he took it from, Cain Velasquez. The co-main event features a much-sought-after lightweight contest as Joe Lauzon battles Jim Miller.

Chris Leben (22-8) vs. Derek Brunson (9-2)
The main card kicks off in the middleweight division as Chris Leben takes on Derek Brunson. Leben steps inside the Octagon for the first time since losing to Mark Munoz in November of 2011. After a career of highs and lows, the always-entertaining Leben looks for another comeback run. The Greg Jackson-trained Brunson steps in on short notice to prevent that comeback. A fast starter, 6 of his 9 wins have come in the first round.

You should never count out a Div. II All-American wrestler, but Leben possesses enough takedown defense to survive. Not only was he already training for a wrestler in Karlos Vemola, but he’s been in there with guys like Mark Munoz, Brian Stann, Akiyama and Aaron Simpson. Brunson will come out quick, swing big and fall victim to one of the world’s classic blunders. The most famous is “Never get involved in a land war in Asia,” but only slightly less well-known is, “Never stand in the pocket against Chris Leben.” The Crippler will catch Brunson as he rushes in, clip him with his left cross and finish him via 1st-round TKO.

Yushin Okami (28-7) vs. Alan Belcher (17-5)
We stay in the middleweight division for the second meeting between Alan “The Talent” Belcher and Yushin “Thunder” Okami. The two first met in the Octagon deubts at UFC 62 in August of 2006, with Okami picking up the decision win. Since that time, both have had long and prosperous careers in the UFC and it’s no surprise that they are meeting again. After coming off two detached retina surgeries that almost cost him his career, Belcher has been on a roll with first-round stoppages against Jason MacDonald and Rousimar Palhares. A former number-one contender, Okami actually holds the middleweight title for most time spent inside the Octagon in the UFC.

Their first meeting really has no bearing on this fight. To put things in perspective, UFC 62 occurred the same month Mel Gibson was arrested for drunk driving, and we’ve all forgotten about that, right? Okami is one of the best grinders in the division, but Belcher is simply more dynamic and dangerous than him at the point. The Talent will use low kicks and straight punches to tag his opponent, then hurt him in the clinch when Okami looks for the takedown. This will gradually wear Okami down until the third round, when Belcher will drop him with a knee and secure the TKO.

Tim Boetsch (16-4) vs Costa Philippou (11-2)
We make it three in a row at 185 pounds as contenders Tim Boetsch and Costa Philippou square off. After losing his UFC debut, Philippou has rattled off four straight wins with his crisp boxing and an impressive takedown defense rate of over 85%. Undefeated at middleweight, “The Barbarian” Boetsch is riding high after derailing the Hector Lombard hype train in July.

This is one of those fights where the heart says one thing, but the mind says another. The logical side sees Philippou treating Boetsch the same way he treated Court McGee and Riki Fukuda– putting together solid boxing combinations, strong footwork and controlling the clinch. My heart, though, can’t seem to count out Boetsch and his ability to end a fight reminiscent of what he did to Yushin Okami at UFC 144. I’m taking Boetsch in the third. Unfortunately, someone has already beaten me in writing The Barbarian Love Story book.

Jim Miller (21-4) vs Joe Lauzon (22-7)
We drop down to the lightweight division for a match people have been describing as “a fight of mirror images.” Miller looks to move back to the top of the crowded 155-lb. ladder after dropping two of his last three fights (to Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz, mind you). Lauzon, who’s only gone the distance once in his 29-fight career, believes he can make Jim Miller his 19th career submission victim.

Since the two have similar gameplans and abilities, you can learn a lot by analyzing common opponents. They’ve both submitted Melvin Guillard in the first round…so…well…that doesn’t help at all. The real question here is whether or not Lauzon’s aggressiveness will be a help or a hindrance. Nothing stifles an aggressive fighter better than a wrestler with Miller’s credentials. Having said that, Lauzon’s recent losses have come primarily against strikers more dangerous than Miller. This back-and-forth fight will surely win Fight of the Night and will likely boil down to which guy can weather the storm the longest. I think that Miller will be able to keep the pace, get the key takedown to steal the rounds and walk away with a UD victory.

Junior Dos Santos (15-1) vs Cain Velasquez (10-1)
Time for the main event of the evening! These two first met in November of 2011, where Junior Dos Santos took the heavyweight belt away from Cain Velasquez with 23:56 to spare in the fight. Since that time, JDS has defended his title only once, knocking out Frank Mir in the second round at UFC 146. That same night, Cain Velasquez earned his rematch by issuing a brutal beatdown to Bigfoot Silva.

Cain Velasquez is the number two heavyweight in the world. The problem with being number two, though, is that you’re not number one. The man who holds that honor is Junior Dos Santos. I see this fight playing out much like the first one: Cain will come out trying to put JDS on his back, but to no avail. Dos Santos will shrug him off and bring it back to the center of the cage. Once in the center, JDS will hit him with those big meathooks he calls hands and add another  first-round TKO finish to his record. I wonder where Alistair Overeem will be Saturday night?

That wraps up another Year of the Dragon edition of the Downes Side. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @dannyboydownes and leave your questions, comments, thoughts and hopes for 2013. To those that have disagreed with me over the year, I leave you with this:

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
and never brought to mind?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
and auld lang syne?

That’s right boys and girls, it’s time for a (Judeo-Christian) holiday edition of the Downes Side! Last Christmas I gave you my predictions. But the very next day, you tore me a new A. This year, to save me from tears, I think I’ll just avoid the comments.

This weekend the UFC returns to Las Vegas for The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale inside The Joint at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino. The TUF 16 winner will be decided between Army vet Colton Smith and Tobey Maguire-lookalike vet Mike Ricci. The main event of the evening showcases two high-profile heavyweights:Roy “Big Country” Nelson is out to prove he’s a better fighter than coach as he takes on his TUF 10 castmate (and injured Shane Carwin’s replacement) Matt Mitrione.

Dustin Poirier (12-2) vs Jonathan Brookins (13-5)
The main card kicks off in the featherweight division as Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier takes on TUF 12 winner Jonathan “The Guy With the Blonde Dreadlocks” Brookins. Once the next big threat to Jose Aldo’s title reign, Poirier looks to rebound from his first UFC loss at the hands of Chan Sung Jung, aka The Korean Zombie, in May. A wrestling standout with eight career submissions, Brookins also wants to bounce back from a submission loss of at the hands of Charles Oliveira at the TUF 15 finale.

Brookins’ grinding wrestling ability was solid at lightweight and is second to none at 145 pounds. Even though he lost to Erik Koch, he was still able to stifle the explosive striker with his grappling. In those moments where he didn’t have Koch against the fence, however, his strike defense was the same as the Greyhound bus senior discount — 5%. Expect Poirier to use his explosiveness and footwork to tag Brookins at will. Brookins will close the distance, but Poirier will retake the center of the cage and continue his stand-up assault. Jose Aldo is the only person to ever KO Brookins. Poirier will become the second man on that list and get one step closer to that title shot.

Melvin Guillard (30-11-2) vs Jamie Varner (20-7-1)
We move to the lightweight division for the Fight of the Night favorite as Jamier Varner battles Melvin “Young Assassin” Guillard. With a comeback that could rival Ben Affleck’s, Varner hunts to recapture some of the magic he found in his underdog victory over Brazilian next-big-thing Edson Barboza. Meanwhile, Melvin tries to find any type of momentum at all since losing three of his last four fights.

Melvin has been pretty much the same guy throughout the course of his career. His overly aggressive style has done wonders with KOs over guys like Shane Roller and Evan Dunham. Conversely, it has also shown its weakness in recent losses to Joe Lauzon, Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone. Melvin uses his athleticism to avoid taking a lot of damage on the feet, but when he leaves an opening, he pays. In the Barboza fight, Varner showed that he has the power to change the course of a fight with one punch. Melvin will rush in for the finish, get clipped and fall victim to his old nemesis, the rear-naked choke, in the second.

Pat Barry (7-5) vs Shane Del Rosario (11-1)
We jump up to the heavyweight division for another fight that won’t go the distance as Pat “HD” Barry and Shane del Rosario square off. With a 4-5 record in his UFC career, the always-entertaining Barry has struggled to put together a solid win streak and searches for redemption after a 1st-round TKO loss to Lavar Johnson in May. The first-ever American WBC heavyweight kickboxing champion, del Rosario suffered his first career defeat to Stipe Miocic in his UFC debut at UFC 146. Known for his knockouts, SDR also holds three career submission victories, including one over Lavar Johnson.

Some might be tempted to see the common opponent and draw conclusions. Don’t. MMA math is like the Potty Patch — it just doesn’t work. This fight will be a stand-up battle. Del Rosario does possess those aforementioned kickboxing accolades, but his game revolves mostly on punching while Barry has a much more well-rounded striking game. Furthermore, Barry’s grappling has improved leaps and bounds from what we saw against Tim Hague. “HD” will win this fight in his usual style: He’ll chop Shane del Rosario down with low kicks and by the time the second round rolls around, it’ll be all over with a head kick. Pat will then give an emotional speech that’ll be a bigger mess than the one in my living room… thanks for nothing, Potty Patch

Colton Smith (3-1) vs Mike Ricci (7-2)
That brings us to the co-main event of the evening which will decide the TUF 16 champion. Smothering his opponents with wrestling, Colton Smith earned himself four decision victories to make his way into the finals. Forgot that Colton was in the military? Don’t worry, he’ll remind you every 30 seconds. The most well-rounded fighter in the house, Mike Ricci punctuated his TUF experience with a brutal elbow KO of Neil Magny in the semi-finals. Forgot Mike Ricci trains with GSP and Tristar? Don’t worry, he’ll remind you every 30 seconds.

The big question here is, “Can Mike Ricci defend Colton’s takedowns?” Based on what I’ve seen this season, there’s no reason to think he can’t. Previously fighting at lightweight, Ricci had the most difficult path to the finals and never struggled once against the season’s field of welterweights. While dominating the wrestling aspect, Colton’s striking leaves much to be desired and his chin has never been tested. Look for southpaw Ricci to control Smith with his jab and circle away from the takedown. Colton will become anxious, run in for the takedown, eat a cross and that will be all she wrote. Ricci wins in the first. Be prepared for his acceptance speech.

Roy Nelson (17-7) vs Matt Mitrione (5-1)
Time for the main event! After what some might call a less-than-stellar coaching stint on this season of The Ultimate Fighter, Roy Nelson looks to run his career UFC record to 5-3. Known more more his globular physique (and being a thorn in Dana White’s side) than anything else, Nelson has a jiu- jitsu black belt and solid knockout power. A former NFL veteran, Mitrione’s athleticism and power have lead him to four career knockout victories.

Firstly, odds are that Mitrione has shaken off the sting of defeat since his last fight was 413 days ago. Secondly, despite his lack of experience, he’ll also shake off the “cage corrosion” that comes with such a long layoff. This fight comes down to conditioning. Roy will come out strong in the first, earn a takedown and put his opponent in some bad positions. As the fight progresses, Roy will fade and “Meathead” will start to catch him on the feet. As the third round winds down, Mitrione will catch Roy with a left uppercut that will end the fight. Mitrione will be all smiles, but his will pale in comparison to the one on Dana White’s face.

That wraps up another merry edition of the Downes Side. Follow me on Twitter @dannyboydownes and be sure to leave your thoughts, predictions and letters to Santa (or Yehuda Hamakabi) here on the page. As for me, I’ll give my thoughts to someone special.

That’s right boys and girls, Danny Boy Downes is back with another network television worthy edition of the Downes Side. While I can’t promise it will be as big of a hit as American Idol, it will hopefully be less culturally polarizing than The Swan.

This week the UFC swings into the Key Arena in Seattle, Washington for UFC on Fox 5. Fresh off his trash-talking training camp, lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson looks to run his UFC undefeated streak to six. His opponent will be Cesar Gracie black belt and Stockton treasure Nate Diaz. In addition to the 155 pound title, the co-main event could very well set up the next in line for the light heavyweight championship (after Chael Sonnen) as Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson goes toe to toe with PRIDE and UFC legend Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

Mike Swick (15-4) vs Matt Brown (15-11)

The main card kicks off in the welterweight division with Mike “Quick” Swick taking on the Immortal Matt Brown (seeing that Matt Brown is not deceased, no one can reasonably prove that there should be quotes on the nickname). Swick looks to keep the momentum going after a triumphant return to the Octagon in August where he KOd DaMarques Johnson. Brown rides a three-fight win streak with wins over Luiz Ramos, Stephen Thompson and Chris Cope.

Brown’s fight against Thompson was the perfect microcosm of his fighting style. Outclassed, he kept charging forward despite taking damage. The combonation of a granite chin and tenacity lead him to victory. Unfortunately, that strategy will not work against Mike Swick. Swick has faster hand speed, superior clinch skills and dangerous submissions. While Swick will not earn the honor of being the first person to ever knock Matt Brown out, it won’t come to that. Brown will  land punches and counter, but his propensity to take damage will wear on him as the fight progresses. By the third round, Swick will start to pick his opponent apart. This will force Brown to rush in and find himself in the patented Swick-o-tine. Mike Swick via third-round submission. Next!

BJ Penn (16-8-2) vs Rory MacDonald (13-1)

We remain in the welterweight division for B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn vs. Rory “Ares” MacDonald. A legend in the sport, Penn returns to the Octagon for the first time since losing to Nick Diaz in October 2011. While B.J. looks to cement his legacy, Rory MacDonald is the next big thing. With a 4-1 UFC record (including wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle), MacDonald needs to prove that the hype surrounding the Tristar product is not misplaced.

B.J. Penn is not a welterweight. GSP and Matt Hughes pushed him around at 170 lbs and Rory MacDonald will do the same. Penn can claim that he’s “motivated” but motivation doesn’t change facts (Katherine Heigl is really motivated to be a box office draw, but even Ashton Kutcher’s brilliant acting couldn’t help with that). Despite Penn’s underrated boxing skills, MacDonald’s strength and speed will be too much to overcome. Possessing the second-best takedown success rate in the division (behind only his teammate GSP) MacDonald will use that to his advantage after he gets bored of battering Penn on the feet. B.J. showed his durability in the Diaz fight, and luckily he won’t have to showcase that again. MacDonald by TKO in the 2nd.

Mauricio Rua (21-6) vs Alexander Gustafsson (14-1)

It’s already time for the co-main event and potential number-two contender for the light heavyweight title. Similar to the Penn/MacDonald fight, this match features a legend of the sport taking on an up-and-comer. In one corner is Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, a former champion coming off a 4th-round TKO of Brandon Vera in the last UFC on FOX main event. Standing across from him will be the Swedish sensation Alexander Gustafsson. Sporting a 6-1 record in the Octagon, he owns the shortest average fight time in the division (6:13 an outing).

Gustaffson has looked impressive, but this is a huge step up in competition. Primarily a boxer, it will be interesting to see if Shogun utilizes his low kicks to slow down the Mauler. Both men have exciting, aggressive striking styles, but this fight will be won in the clinch. Gustafsson has talked about how he’s trained that aspect extensively for this fight, but it won’t be enough. He’ll be initially successful, but this will allow Rua to get the tie-up and clinch. From there, Shogun will land knees and short uppercuts that will stun his opponent. At the end of the second, one of those knees will travel upstairs and knock Gustafsson down. Shogun will pounce and earn the TKO victory. Then it will be time for his most difficult battle — convincing people he deserves another title shot.

Benson Henderson (17-2) vs Nate Diaz (16-7)

Time for the main event! Since losing his WEC title, Benson Henderson has taken five in a row under the UFC banner. After two extremely close wins over Frankie Edgar, “Smooth” could use a statement win to silence critics. Part of the Skrap Pack, Nate Diaz’ welterweight experiment brought him back to 155 pounds where he belongs. Since his return to lightweight, he’s armbarred Taknori Gomi, decimated Donald Cerrone and choked out Jim Miller.

The not-so-secret question here is, “How will Diaz handle Henderson’s wrestling?” While his fights against Dong Hyun Kim and MacDonald may rightfully be a cause for that concern, Diaz’ grappling vulnerabilities are much less apparent at lightweight than those at welterweight. Henderson may hold one of the best takedown percentages in the game, but Nate’s volume punching will be able to keep him at bay. Furthermore, Henderson couldn’t hold Frankie Edgar down and he won’t be able to do it to Nate Diaz either. Neither fighter has ever been knocked out and I expect those streaks to continue. It’ll be a back and forth fight, but Diaz will do enough to steal rounds on the scorecards. I see him losing the first two frames, but as the fight advances, his punches will start to find their mark. Nate Diaz wins 48-47 and brings the UFC title to the 209.

That wraps up another ineffable edition of the Downes Side. Be sure to follow me on Twitter
@dannyboydownes. Also, don’t forget to leave you thoughts, questions, concerns or other FOX shows you’d like to see return. I’ll start — Pauly

The episode opens with a group of upset Team Nelson members. Like many who’ve recently purchased a “cozy” starter house, they suffer from buyer’s remorse. We’ve seen this many times over the course of the season, but with everything winding down — and the benefit of hindsight — the underwhelming “draw straws” nature of the coaching has been put in perspective. Joey Rivera “feel[s] jaded because of Roy,” and many others agree that they were not properly trained.

We cut to Team Nelson’s training session as teammates Colton Smith and Jon Manley prepare to square off for a spot in the finals. Colton tells us that his strategy never changes and he’s going to fight the same way he has all season. Coach Nelson feels the two are fairly evenly matched and while Colton possesses the superior wrestling, Jon’s BJJ is better.

Team Disgruntled confronts Roy and let’s just say that Big Country will not be changing his nickname to “Big Empathy” any time soon. He points to the fact that two members of the team made it to the semifinals as proof of successful coaching. When Cameron Diffley tries to retort, Roy simply points to his heart and says, “I can’t give you this.” (Yes you can, Roy.)

Colton Smith vs. Jon Manley
As the opening frame of the first semifinal begins, Colton rushes Jon Manley and forces him against the fence. Jon pummels and returns to the center, but he seems tentative in the standup exchanges. Colton throws a cross, closes ground and pushes Jon back on the cage. They lay there for an extended period of time until Colton gets to top position after an inside trip. He attempts a guillotine, but Manley defends and returns to his feet. The two remain against the cage until the round ends.

The two spend the first forty seconds of round two dancing around until Colton decides to rush in once more. The two clinch up and Colton scores another trip, but Jon gets back to his feet. They break up but repeat the same interaction — rush, tie-up, trip. Jon stands up and attempts a standing Kimura to no avail. He drops to the ground for more leverage, but Colton rips his arm free. With about a minute left, Jon goes for a desperate takedown that Colton easily defends and they’re back against the cage. Jon tries a trip takedown of his own, but Colton reverses and the round ends.

Going into the third, Manley’s corner knows he needs to finish. Pat Barry tells Manley to leave it all on the line and, “It’s better to die in this bitch than go the distance.” I assume those words of wisdom will be on a T-shirt soon. As the round begins, Jon continues to miss big while Colton starts to showboat and dance around. After a minute and a half of this, Colton ties up and pushes Manley against the fence (sound familiar?). The two break and Colton charges right back. With about two minutes left, Jon Manley finally starts to show some spark. He lands an overhand right and decides to go for broke, throwing continuous big hooks and crosses. Some of them start to finally find their mark. Colton tries to close in, but Jon brushes him off and scores an elbow. Just as the momentum builds, Colton trips him and the round ends.

Colton wins the unanimous decision then gives a victory speech about how our nation’s armed forces are the real winners. Inside the locker room, Colton talks about how real men drink whiskey, but when he takes a sip it looks like it’s the first time he’s ever had alcohol. Where’s a mai tai when you really need one?

Mike Ricci vs. Neil Magny
Next it’s time for the second semifinal match, this one an all-Team Carwin affair between Mike Ricci and Neil Magny. Ricci keeps his smugness on full power when he admits, “I didn’t think I’d learn anything here.” Coach Carwin praises Ricci for being the most well-rounded fighter in the house, but also comments about how much Magny’s standup game has improved. Lost in Ricci’s story is his BFF-ness with welterweight Rory MacDonald, a high-fashion bromance we had to learn about from Road to the Octagon.

The first round begins with both men fighting out of a southpaw stance. They’re reading each other and testing range. They remain on the outside where Ricci lands a solid cross to the body and a low kick. Neil closes the range and bull rushes Ricci up against the fence. The two break and work their way into the center of the cage. With two minutes left, Ricci connects with a left hand that drops Neil. Ricci pounces and winds up in full guard where Neil holds on tight and uses the lull to recover. Neil works his way to the fence, stands up, then eats a huge elbow that ends the fight. (Huge.)

Ricci is emotional after the win and starts to tear up because he feels guilt for knocking Neil out cold. Colton Smith and Mike Ricci stare each other down and we get some trash talk clips. Ricci believes that, “Colton can’t contend with me.” Colton gives us the good ol’ fashioned, “I’m gonna take his head off.” Dana tells us that the final match is truly between the best two guys in the house and we see a preview of next week’s finale as the sixteenth season of TUF comes to completion.

Who will be crowned the TUF 16 champion? Does Roy Nelson defeat his castmate Matt Mitrione in the main event? What are the odds Julian Lane gets drunk and fights someone in the stands? Find out Saturday, December 15th on The Ultimate Fighter Finale!

Team Carwin (7-7)
Sam Alvey (0-1, lost to Joey Rivera by decision in episode 3)
Bristol Marunde (1-1, defeated Julian Lane by decision in episode 4, lost to Neil Magny by decision in episode 10)
Mike Ricci (3-0, defeated Dom Waters by decision in episode 9, defeated Mike Ricci by decision in episode 11, defeated Neil Magny by knockout in episode 12)
Neil Magny (2-1, defeated Cameron Diffley by decision in episode 2, defeated Bristol Marunde by decision in episode 10, lost via knockout to Mike Ricci in episode 12)
James Chaney (0-1, submitted by Jon Manley in episode 8)
Eddy Ellis (0-1, lost to Colton Smith by majority decision in epsiode 6)
Igor Araujo (1-1, defeated Nic Herron-Webb by majority decision in episode 5, lost to Colton Smith by decision in episode 10)
Matt Secor (0-1, lost to Michael Hill by split decision in episode 7)

Team Nelson (7-7)
Dom Waters (0-1, lost to Mike Ricci by decision in episode 9)
Michael Hill (1-1, defeated Matt Secor by split decision in episode 7, lost to Mike Ricci by decision in episode 11)
Cameron Diffley (0-1, lost to Neil Magny by decision in episode 2)
Colton Smith (3-0, defeated Eddy Ellis by majority decision in episode 6, defeated Igor Araujo by decision in episode 10, defeated Jon Manley by decision in episode 12)
Jon Manley (2-1, submitted James Chaney is episode 8, defeated Joey Rivera by decision in episode 11, lost to Colton Smith by decision in episode 12)
Nic Herron-Webb (0-1, lost to Igor Araujo by majority decision in episode 5)
Joey Rivera (1-1, defeated Sam Alvey by decision in episode 3, lost to Jon Manley by decision in episode 11)
Julian Lane (0-1, lost to Bristol Marunde by decision in episode 4)

The episode gets right down to business and sets up the all-Team Nelson quarterfinal match between Joey Rivera and Jon Manley. Normally, each fighter throws some token catchphrases out there like, “I’m ready for war,” or, “[insert name] I’m coming for you!” This time, neither fighter seems very enthusiastic about fighting. They both genuinely like one another and respect one another’s abilities. Laaaame! Joey plans on out-striking Jon to get the win while Jon believes Joey is weak on the ground and looks to exploit that. Oh, and he warns Joey that he’s coming for him.

Manley vs. Rivera
Both fighters more forward in the opening round and trade punches and low kicks. A minute in, Manley rushes Rivera and pushes him against the fence. Rivera attempts a guillotine, but doesn’t finish. Manley doesn’t earn the takedown initially, but  keeps working at it and puts Rivera on his back. He soon passes to half guard and attempts some ground and pound. The two find themselves in an awkward position where Rivera is able to create a scramble and attempt a triangle choke. Jon defends and moves to side mount as the round ends.

The second round mirrors the first. The two initially trade a few low kicks, but Manley soon puts Rivera back against the fence. Rivera defends the takedown for a while, but can’t advance his position and winds up on his back again. Manley advances his position and even gets in position for a rear-naked choke, but there’s never any danger of the finish. The round ends with Manley in dominant position.

Manley wins the fight, and everyone is disappointed. Dana didn’t like fight. Roy Nelson says his guys looked like they didn’t want to be in the cage. Both fighters are unhappy with their performances, too. Jon Manley reveals “I was scared to exchange with him a lot because in practice he beats my ass.”

After seeing two guys who didn’t want to compete against one another, we shift to a pair that can’t wait to fight. Ricci probably understates things when he says, “Things have been weird in the house.” Hill makes a joke about putting ex-lax in Ricci’s pasta sauce which Ricci does not appreciate. He decides to secure his sauce by wrapping the entire pot in surgical tape. Sure, why not. The two then have a verbal confrontation. I was kind of hoping it would end like the classic 1970 film “Love Story” with one of them apologizing and the other saying, “Being bros means never having to say you’re sorry.” Sadly, this was not the case.

On the bright side, Ricci/HIll gives us the trash talk we sorely missed from Manley/Rivera. Hill plans on pressuring RIcci and using his hands to dictate the fight. He also tells us, “Hard work beats talent and I’m going to prove that in the cage.” Ricci escalates things a bit more and calls Hill a “bum,” accuses him of being mentally weak and admits he’s not looking to KO or submit Hill, but to mentally break him. It’s always the accountant types who turn out to be the biggest sadists…

Ricci vs. Hill
Both fighters land some strong shots in the opening frame. Ricci’s left high kicks find their home while Hill connects with a solid low kick. At the 3:30 mark, Hill tires of this measured back-and-forth exchange and rushes Ricci. Ricci reverses and puts Hill against the cage. He finishes the takedown and starts to wing some big shots. Ricci controls Hill for the majority of the round and continues to throw punches and land elbows. Hill exposes his back with about a minute left. He avoids the submission, but he doesn’t avoid the elbows Ricci continues to drop as the round ends.

The second round opens with Ricci missing a kick. Hill tries to use this opening to blitz, but finds himself defending a takedown instead. At first, he’s successful and even gets a solid guillotine attempt. Ricci keeps pushing, though, and puts Hill on the mat again. Ricci takes the back but can’t finish since they’re both leaning against the fence. Hill stands up to try to shake Ricci off, but the banker clings to him like a baby panda. Hill gets close to escaping, but Ricci’s hooks stay firmly in place for the majority of the round. Hill finally gets to his feet with 13 seconds left, but it’s too late.

Ricci takes 20-18 across the board. Dana White doesn’t appear to be too pleased with this match either. He tells us that, “I expected it to be more of a explosive fight” and admonishes Hill for “having no ground game.” Hill says he lost because he didn’t give it 110%. Mathematical probabilities aside, what does that mean?

We cut right to the semi-final fight announcements. The first will be Jon Manley and Colton Smith. Jon gives us a brief glimpse into his strategy by saying, “I’m gonna have to hit him [expletive] hard.” The second semi fight will feature Mike Ricci and Neil Magny. While neither one of them says so, I believe that they too plan on hitting their opponents [expletive] hard.

We get a sneak peek of what will be the last regular episode of the season… which two fighters will advance to the finals? Who delivers the knockout? Will Michael Hill interrupt Ricci’s sleep by standing outside his window blasting Peter Gabriel’s, “In Your Eyes?” Find out next week!

Team Carwin (6-6)
Sam Alvey (0-1, lost to Joey Rivera by decision in episode 3)
Bristol Marunde (1-1, defeated Julian Lane by decision in episode 4, lost to Neil Magny by decision in episode 10)
Mike Ricci (2-0, defeated Dom Waters by decision in episode 9, defeated Mike Ricci by decision in episode 11)
Neil Magny (2-0, defeated Cameron Diffley by decision in episode 2, defeated Bristol Marunde by decision in episode 10)
James Chaney (0-1, submitted by Jon Manley in episode 8)
Eddy Ellis (0-1, lost to Colton Smith by majority decision in epsiode 6)
Igor Araujo (1-1, defeated Nic Herron-Webb by majority decision in episode 5, lost to Colton Smith by decision in episode 10)
Matt Secor (0-1, lost to Michael Hill by split decision in episode 7)

Team Nelson (6-6)
Dom Waters (0-1, lost to Mike Ricci by decision in episode 9)
Michael Hill (1-1, defeated Matt Secor by split decision in episode 7, lost to Mike Ricci by decision in episode 11)
Cameron Diffley (0-1, lost to Neil Magny by decision in episode 2)
Colton Smith (2-0, defeated Eddy Ellis by majority decision in episode 6, defeated Igor Araujo by decision in episode 10)
Jon Manley (2-0, submitted James Chaney is episode 8, defeated Joey Rivera by decision in episode 11)
Nic Herron-Webb (0-1, lost to Igor Araujo by majority decision in episode 5)
Joey Rivera (1-1, defeated Sam Alvey by decision in episode 3, lost to Jon Manley by decision in episode 11)
Julian Lane (0-1, lost to Bristol Marunde by decision in episode 4)

That’s right boys and girls, Danny Boy Downes is back for another pay per view edition of the Downes Side. My favorite November holiday is right around the corner (take that World Peace Day), and it would seem appropriate that everyone gives thanks for the insight I provide before very UFC event. So may I just say: You’re welcome.

From the land of Thanksgiving to the land of Jour de l’Action de grâce, the UFC returns to the Bell Centre in Montreal for UFC 154. The main event of the evening features a champion vs champion contest between Georges St.-Pierre and Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit. GSP looks to reclaim his status as the undisputed champion after a knee injury kept him out of the Octagon since April 2011. The co-main event could decide who gets the next title shot as Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann steps in against Johny Hendricks

Mark Hominick (20-11) vs Pablo Garza (12-3)
The main card begins in the featherweight division with Mark “The Machine” Hominick and Pablo Garza.  Both fighters are in a bit of a slump. A former number-one contender, Hominick has dropped three in a row., the most recent being a decision loss to Eddie Yagin at UFC 145. With seven of his career wins by submission, Garza is looking to snap his own two-fight losing streak.

While a losing streak has few positive attributes, the style of Hominick’s recent losses is more of a concern than the outcomes themselves. He’s lately lacked that crispness that earned him a shot at the belt. Despite that, I think even a flat Mark Hominick beats Pablo Garza. The Machine hasn’t tapped since losing to Josh Grispi in 2008 and I don’t see it happening again. He may have lacked the power punching in his last fight against Yagin, but his jab was clean and on point. He’ll use that and movement to work his way to a unanimous decision win.

Nick Ring (13-1) vs Constantinos Philippou (11-2)
Mark Boeck (11-4) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (17-6)
Update: The second fight of the night was changed after Nick Ring got sick. Fortunately, this backup main card bout will be much more entertaining than your backup prom date. Both lightweights are excellent grapplers, which usually sets the stage for a striking affair. Despite this, Bocek will be able to crowd dos Anjos, get him to the ground and ride him out for the UD win. Sure it wasn’t the first choice, but at least it won’t look like this.

Here’s what I would have said about Ring vs. Philippou, though: Next we head to the middleweight division for Costa Philippou vs Nick “The Promise” Ring. Primarily a boxer, Costa has used his hands to punch his way to a four-fight winning streak. After losing to Tim Boetsch last September, Ring bounced back nicely with a decision over Court McGee. Solid all around, the majority of his wins have come via submission.

This fight will be spent on the feet. Ring, does possess a grappling advantage, but Costa has shown solid takedown defense against quality rasslers like Court McGee and Riki Fukuda. Costa has the heavier hands, and that will make all the difference. Ring will weather this power difference in the earlier rounds, but it will catch up to him. He’ll try to close the distance, eat a big right hand and get knocked out in the third

Francis Carmont (19-7) vs Tom Lawlor (8-4)
We remain in the middleweight division as Tristar product Francis Carmont looks to extend his win streak to nine in a row. A fast-rising star, he’s finished 16 opponents with a mix of solid striking and powerful ground and pound. His opponent is TUF 8 alum and method actor extraordinaire “Filthy” Tom Lawlor. Known for pushing the pace, he gets in opponents’ faces and uses his wrestling to finish them off.

Look, I like French stereotypes as much as the next guy, but Carmont won’t surrender in this fight. Carmont’s dynamic striking game will make it hard fro Lawlor to close the distance and get the tie-up. Even if he does put Carmont on the canvas, I don’t think America’s Bad Boy of Sumo will be able to hold him down and do damage. By the time the third round comes, Carmont will get a takedown of his own and ground and pound his way to the TKO.

Martin Kampmann (20-5) vs Johny Hendricks (13-1)
That brings us to the co-main event of the evening. While nothing is ever 100%, the winner of this fight will likely earn the next welterweight title shot. In his last three fights, Kampmann has dispatched Thiago Alves, Rick Story and Jake Ellenberger. “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks has defeated foes like Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck and T.J. Waldburger, earning an 8-1 record in the Octagon. Both men have a penchant for standing and trading, so expect this one to earn Fight of the Night honors.

I’ve picked against Kampmann the last few times and it’s cost me. You would think this would cause me to reassess my assessments… but you would be wrong. While Kampmann has been on a three-fight win streak, his defense has looked shaky. When he gets in trouble, he likes to bring the fight to the ground, but Hendricks has stood there with Mike Pierce and Kos — much better wrestlers than Kampmann. Hendricks hits Kampmann with a big left hand in the second, then grounds and pounds his way to a title shot. If I’m wrong again, I will come over to his house and cook him a goose as a belated Martinmas Eve present in accordance with Danish tradition

Georges St. Pierre (22-2) vs Carlos Condit (28-5)
Time for the main event, some 14 months after it was first announced for UFC 137. The champion Georges St-Pierre steps back into the cage for the first time since April 30, 2011. To put that into perspective, that was the day after the royal wedding, and I’m sure we all know where we were on that magical day. The man looking to ruin the comeback is Carlos Condit. Winner 13 of his last 14, he holds a 93% finishing rate, which blows my 5% crossword finishing rate out of the water.

A lot of people are making the mistake of looking past Carlos Condit and focusing on GSP’s next fight. If Randy Newman can win multiple Grammys, I think Carlos Condit can win a UFC title; though just because he can doesn’t mean he will. People make a big deal about GSP’s long layoff, but Condit only fought once in 2011 and once in 2012 so far. GSP is in terrific shape and I don’t believe the knee will slow him down. Condit will come out aggressively and try to put pressure on that knee, but GSP will weather the storm. As the fight progresses, St-Pierre will do what he always does — pick his opponent apart. He’ll tag Condit with straight punches and low kicks, then transition seamlessly into takedowns. He’ll use this strategy to win 49-46 on the judges’ scorecards for a UD victory. Condit fans will be upset, but here’s a photo gallery to make you feel better

That wraps up another $54.95 worthy edition of the Downes Side. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @dannyboydownes and don’t forget to leave your own predictions, thoughts or gratitude on the page as well. I’m going to dust off my Pilgrim costume.