Author: By Dan Downes

Last week the Ultimate Fighting Championship made a triumphant return to Japan. Unfortunately, my 3-4 fight picks were not so triumphant. Sure I was disappointed, but not nearly as much as finding out that the Baconfest tickets were sold out. On the bright side, I didn’t exacerbate my family history of heart disease and we all developed a new crush on the Japanese interpreter and Fluffy.

This week the UFC is back on FX for the second time and in Sydney, Australia for the third. Luckily for fight fans, this card will be a successful sequel (unlike this). Out of an intellectual’s deference to Australian fans, I refuse to make Crocodile Dundee references. Furthermore, I also plan on skipping my ritual Bloomin’ Onion at Outback Steakhouse as a sign of solidarity. You’re welcome, Australia.

Court McGee vs. Costa Philippou
Winner of The Ultimate Fighter season 11, Court “The Crusher” McGee hasn’t lost a fight since he battled Jeremy Horn in 2007. He’s 3-0 in the UFC and has proven to be a well-rounded fighter with a great chin. Costa Philippou never made it into the TUF house after losing an elimination bout against Joseph Henle, but he made it to the UFC anyway (like some other TUF rejects we know) and has notched wins against Jared Hamman and Jorge Rivera.

Prediction: While McGee is certainly a tough opponent for anyone (even heroin), I think that Philippou’s boxing will be the difference. He’s definitely patient, as he has to listen to his trainer Matt Serra talk all the time. He’ll utilize this patience along with speed and footwork to tag McGee on the way to a decision victory.

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall
Next on the card is the first-ever flyweight bout, the winner of which will fight for the UFC flyweight title. WEC veteran Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall is making his UFC debut and has the most experience at 125 pounds of anyone in the UFC’s division. His grappling and striking skills are impressive; the fact that he’s still likable despite the whole black nail polish thing even more so. Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is competing for the first time since his loss to Dominick Cruz. What he lacks in McCall’s cool, waxed mustache, though, he makes up for with tenacity and aggression.
 
Prediction: This is a much more even match-up than people are expecting. Personally, I think that McCall is the more technical fighter, but Johnson’s speed advantage and ability to push the pace that will negate that. Mighty Mouse will effectively mix striking and takedowns en route to a decision victory. I hate to say it, but “Uncle Creepy’s” chances are about as good
you not saying “awwwwww” when you see this.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Yasuhiro Urushitani
The second match in the flyweight tournament pits another former bantamweight challenger, Joseph Benavidez, against UFC debutant Yasuhiro Urushitani. The spiritual guru behind the Joe-Jitsu movement, Benavidez tore though the bantamweight division losing only to Dominick Cruz. Urushitani has been fighting since 2001 and has great counterstriking abilities. With the unusual record of 19-4-6, it looks like he draws more than Bob Ross.

Prediction: Like CPR certification, counterstriking is a great skill to have, but it’s really hard to do on your back. Benavidez will find the opening, get it to the ground and finish it with one of his patented Joe-Jitsu guillotine chokes in the 1st round. It’s not all bad news for Urushitani — I hear when Benavidez chokes you, you’re transported to a nice quiet pond, which sounds pleasant.

Thiago Alves vs. Martin Kampmann
Thiago “The Pitbull” Alves has hit a rough patch as of late. He’s only won two of his last five and has shown a lack of consistency inside the Octagon. Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann is looking to get on a roll, too. He grinded out a split decision victory against Rick Story in November after a narrow loss to Diego Sanchez that left me rocking back and forth in fetal position (chronicled here).

Prediction: Kampmann is a solid striker, but his fights against Sanchez and Story showed that his defense fissures under pressure. Alves will get in the Dane’s face and frustrate him more than when senior citizens use the self checkout lane at the grocery store. It’ll be close, but Kampmann will spend a lot of the fight moving backwards and that will give “The Pitbull,” the UD win. Let’s just hope that the judges give decisions quicker than grandma writes checks.

That brings another Downes Side to a close. Be sure to follow me on twitter @dannyboydownes and post your comments, thoughts, suggestions, fears, dreams, hopes, favorite pork product or turn-ons on the page here. If those last two intersect…keep it to yourself.

After going 3-2 in my UFC RIO picks (thanks to Mario for giving me that Prater call), it’s nice to have some momentum coming into this week. In fact, the only negative response to my last edition was the picture. In some circles, Photoshopping yourself into a picture with a couple women is hilarious, even high-five worthy. In others, however, it gets you a stern talking-to from one’s fiancé and a restraining order from Arianny and Chandella. Yes, while once I fought in the Octagon, now it looks like I won’t even be able to get within 100 feet of it.

This Friday the UFC on FX rolls into Nashville (almost three million feet away from my place). Personally, I think this is the best move FX has made since they offered Dana White the role of Detective Vic Mackey in “The Shield.” Hopefully this leads to a whole new level of UFC/FX crossovers. I think Justified’s Timothy Olyphant could be a decent fighter and maybe Matt Mitrione could get on an episode of The League (though I don’t think his two career tackles make him a viable fantasy football play).

PAT BARRY VS. CHRISTIAN MORECRAFT
The night kicks off with a heavyweight contest between Pat “HD” Barry and Christian Morecraft. Both guys are coming off losses and badly need a win to stay in the organization. In the interest of full disclosure, Pat is a personal friend of mine, and not just because we’ve driven up bar bills that rival my student loan debt. He’s a great guy whose Twitter feed is vastly superior to his opponent’s, and that’s why it feels terrible to pick against him.

Prediction: Luckily for me, I won’t have to. Morecraft has four submission victories, so if he can get “HD” to the ground, Pat could be in trouble. Pat’s footwork and athleticism, though, should help him avoid tying up while picking Morecraft apart with his superior striking. Barry gets a 1st round TKO and looks way more masculine than he does when ordering his drink of choice. Seriously, coconut rum and pineapple juice?!

MIKE EASTON VS. JARED PAPAZIAN
Next up is a bantamweight bout between newcomer Jared “The Jackhammer” Papazian and Mike “The Hulk” Easton. Easton is making his second appearance in the Octagon after finishing Byron Bloodworth in the second round last October. I didn’t catch the fight, but with a name like Bloodworth, the guy had to be a vampire and even the Twilight ones are hard to beat.

Prediction: The Jackhammer has gone to decision his last five bouts. That, compounded by the fact that he’s making his UFC debut on short notice, makes it hard to choose him against a guy who smashed his way through the local Washington D.C. circuit  —  we all know hard it is to accomplish something in that town. Easton via 2nd round TKO

DUANE LUDWIG VS. JOSH NEER
I expect Duane “Bang” Ludwig and Josh “The Dentist” Neer to be the fight of the night. Ludwig’s having a good streak – he’s won his last two fights, and the UFC now officially recognizes his win against Jonathan Goulet as the fastest KO in UFC history. Tough veteran Josh Neer has finished his last five fights, most recently against Keith Wisniewski via doctor stoppage due to cuts that almost made referee Dan Miragliotta almost lose his lunch.

Prediction: Ludwig has the advantage in standup, no doubt – he’s one of the best in MMA. Neer, however, is much more well-rounded has a solid chin. I think that he’ll try to stand and trade with Ludwig, but then his self-preservation instincts will kick in, he’ll take Duane down and work some ground and pound. Most people hate the dentist, and Ludwig won’t be the exception after Neer takes this by decision.

MELVIN GUILLARD VS. JIM MILLER
The main event has lightweight contenders Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard and Jim Miller jockeying for position on the 155-pound ladder. Both guys have something to prove after recent losses derailed their contender status in the division. It’s a textbook style matchup: Guillard has explosive boxing and dangerous knockout power; Miller is one of the most effective grapplers in the UFC and a BJJ black belt who’s won 11 of 20 by submission.

Prediction: Melvin Guillard’s performances have been about as reliable as my
grandma after a glass and half of Riesling. Sometimes he goes out there
on point and you want to crown him the next lightweight champ; other
times, you have a hard time believing that’ he’s the same guy who took
out Shane Roller and Evan Dunham with extreme violence. Joe Lauzon showed the hole in Guillard’s game and Miller has the ability to rip it open even wider. Miller will get the takedown and secure a submission, giving Melvin his second loss in a row.

That concludes the third edition of the Downes Side. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter at @DannyBoyDownes, and keep your fingers crossed that I finish my work in time to watch the fights tonight. I have to apologize to my fiancé (this should do it) and hire some legal counsel. I wonder if Volkmann has a good lawyer I could call.

That’s right everyone, the Downes Side is back. I believe the first column went well, judging by the fact that my family downgraded my abuse from condescending remarks (e.g. “When are you going to get a real job?”) to backhanded compliments (e.g. “Nice to know your head’s good for more than getting punched.”). The slight increase in respect was even more impressive considering my picks went 0-4. Statistically speaking, however, that’s just as difficult as going 4-0, so at least I have that.

This weekend the UFC is rolling into Rio. I was hoping that maybe they’d send me so I could type this from a beach in Brazil instead of the public library — after all, didn’t Zuffa save a bunch of money by not having to hire Blackwater to protect Chael Sonnen from angry Brazilians? Plus I assume that Brazilian women have a bunch of jacked up tan men surrounding them, so they’d like to change things up with a pale, skinny internet columnist. Well, shocking but true, I’m stuck here in Wisconsin and the picture above is Photoshopped. Still, a guy can dream, can’t he?

Barboza vs Etim
The main card kicks off with a lightweight matchup. Terry Etim enters after a 17 second submission win against Edward Faaloloto at UFC 138; undefeated Edson Barboza comes off a controversial decision (outside of Brazil, anyway) victory over Ross Pearson in August.
This fight boils down to the freakish athleticism and power of Barboza
against the finesse and technique of Etim.

Prediction: Barboza is stronger, faster and more explosive, but Etim has the advantage in pale gangly limbs (something I respect in a fighter). In this early stage of his career, Barboza is still one-dimensional and Etim will take advantage. Barboza will come out wild, Etim will weather the storm, secure a takedown and finish it by submission in the first. (Barboza will totally own Etim in the swimsuit competition, though.) 

Silva vs. Prater
The next bout takes place between welterweights Erick Silva and Carlo Prater, and what this fight lacks in name recognition, it makes up for in Fight of the Night potential. Silva recently scored a first-minute TKO in his UFC debut. He hasn’t lost in more than five years, has great stand-up skills, and seven of his 13 wins have come via submission. He’s also a former Jungle Fight champion, which I assume is some type of guerrilla warfare competition. Prater (29-10-1) is a former top contender for the WEC welterweight title, comes from a Muay Thai background, and has also won over half his fights by submission.

Prediction: This could be one of those fights where you’ll wish it were five rounds instead of three. Unfortunately for the Jungle Fight champion, the Brazilian athletic commission is just as strict as Nevada’s with regards to its “no firearms” policy. Prater will outgun the younger fighter and take it by unanimous decision.

Palhares vs. Massenzio
Next up we have Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Massenzio. The one wildcard here is, well, wildcard Rousimar Palhares. Whether it be the premature celebration against Dan Miller, the complete lapse against Nate Marquardt or his holding on to submissions for too long, let’s just say few would blink if his next walkout kit included a tin foil hat to block thought-stealers. Most people are counting Massenzio out, considering this a “gimme” fight to set up Palhares for a contender matchup next.

Prediction: Normally, I hate to agree with most people. That’s why I listen to bands you’ve never heard of (even when I don’t like them) and refuse to wash my hands after using the bathroom. In this case, though, they’re right about the outcome. “Toquinho” (or “Torquinho” if you choose to dwell on his joint-dislocation abilities) will be mentally focused come Saturday night and will finish it in the first with one of his patented leg locks.

Belfort vs. Johnson
Anthony Johnson will make his eagerly anticipated debut at middleweight (or is it light heavyweight?) against Vitor Belfort. Even in this new division, “Rumble” will be the bigger, stronger competitor. Belfort, after falling victim to Anderson Silva’s super-secret Steven Seagal front kick, rebounded with a big KO of Yoshihiro Akiyama in August and will have the advantage in hand speed, defense and (definitely) experience.

Prediction: Belfort hasn’t had a fight go the distance since 2007 and he won’t start 2012 with one either. The key here will be Belfort’s ability to use his footwork and attack from angles. Johnson is definitely strong enough to move up in weight class(es), but he’s in for rough introduction. Belfort wins by TKO in the first and Johnson calls up Charles Barkley for some diet tips.

Aldo vs. Mendes
That brings us to the main event of the evening. Jose Aldo is making his fifth title defense (and third in the UFC) against Chad “Money” Mendes. After going on a KO tear, the fact that Aldo has gone to a decision his last couple of bouts has diminished his aura of invincibility. Still, the champ is extremely dangerous. Mendes, an elite wrestler with an undefeated record against top dudes, has the skill set to take the title away.

Prediction: For Chad Mendes to win, and I think he will, two things are necessary: conditioning and judging. If he can keep a solid pace for five rounds he’s going to take Aldo down and grind him and get the decision victory. Picture this as a featherweight version of Silva vs Sonnen, but without the fifth-round Hail Mary triangle. The hometown fans won’t like it, but on the bright side, I picture Mendes’ Team Alpha Male victory party to look like a mini version of an LMFAO video, which should be fun.

That concludes this iteration of the Downes side. Feel free to leave some comments, although the last batch (a la “YOUR WRITING SUX!!!!!!!”) was about as helpful as the pre-flight safety checks on an airplane. It’s the internet, so I understand the compulsion to try and hurt my feelings. Please remember, though, I’m an expert in psychological warfare – I went to Catholic school.

Welcome to the inaugural edition of my column, the Downes Side. So what will this column contain? Basically, think of it like that movie the Blind Side, but with fight predictions. There will be an engaging character, a giant football player-type, a feel good story and it will culminate with me getting an award as undeserving as Sandra Bullock’s Oscar (Helen Mirren got robbed!). 

Shifting from UFC fighter to UFC writer may seem quite different, but there are a number of similarities. For one, they both disappoint your relatives. As one unnamed family member told me, “Great, you’ve traded one dead end profession for another.” Plus, both are hazardous to your health: Writing has less physical trauma, but supposedly comes with more alcoholism and drug abuse. 

December 30’s UFC 141 and New Year’s Eve have a lot in common, too. Both are highly anticipated events with winners and losers. So come Saturday morning after the Friday night fights, who will be buying champagne by the magnum and who be alone at midnight with no one to kiss,searching for some type of sign to tell them they everything they’ve worked for the last few years hasn’t been in vain, crying into their pillow as they workshop their one-liners for the UFC 142 prediction column…. anyway, on with my picks.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafsson
Both
of these guys come into this fight looking to build on the momentum
they’ve been gathering. Alexander Gustafsson has rattled off three in a
row, the most recent being TKOing Matt Hamill into retirement. Vladimir Matyushenko is coming in after a 20 second finish of Jason Brilz in August and 15 years of experience (“The Mauler” was 10 when Matyushenko made his pro MMA debut.)

Gustaffsson
has a great future in the UFC, but he won’t have a great Saturday
night. The deciding factor here is power and Matyushenko’s will be too
much for Gustafsson to handle.

Prediction: “The Janitor”
cleans up and the Swede goes down in the second round; which is still
longer than my last piece of IKEA furniture lasted. 

That
concludes the first edition of the Downes Side. If you liked it, leave
some comments, suggestions and predictions of your own. If you didn’t –
keep it to yourself. I can’t afford to get fired from another job.

Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks
Jon Fitch hasn’t lost a fight since 2008 and his last loss before that was 2002. Despite that impressive record, his fighting style hasn’t endeared himself to fans. The good news for fans is that Johny Hendricks has a wrestling pedigree that could prevent Fitch from executing his game plan. The bad news is that fans don’t get to pick fights, otherwise GSP and Anderson Silva would headline every event, which would take place under PRIDE rules.

Plus, all the blue-chip rasslin’ won’t matter, because Hendricks also has the tendency to want to stand and bang. He’ll catch Fitch with a couple good shots, rush for the kill, overcommit himself to a big shot and that give Fitch an opening to get him down.

Prediction: Fitch wins this one after 15 and then takes the title from GSP—the one for most decision victories in UFC history.

Nate Diaz vs. Cowboy Cerrone
This
has fight of the night written all over it. We could talk about who
would take the edge with regards to grappling ability, but let’s be
honest, the only way one of these guys is going to the ground is if he’s
unconscious. And with the chins on these two, that’s probably even more
unlikely. 

Both of these scowling scrappers have slick
submission games and good cardio, leaving this bad blood bout to be
determined on the feet. Both like to use their long limbs and range to
tag opponents (sometimes even at pre-fight press conferences) and don’t focus on big power shots. Diaz may be more of a
“quantity over quality” guy when it comes to strikes, but Cerrone isn’t
too far behind.

Prediction: This one goes to the judges
and Cerrone wins by split decision. That’ll make Nate angry, and you
wouldn’t like it when a Diaz gets angry.

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem
The
general consensus about this fight is that Overeem wins this easily
because Lesnar “can’t take a punch” (one of the few things I excelled at
– he should have called me to help him train).  I don’t know if Brock
has gotten a better chin since his last fight, but it won’t come to
that. I see him charging like a mustang to secure the takedown, and this
will be one horse that Overeem can’t eat.

Prediction: Once he gets top control, Lesnar will use his ground and pound and the ref will stop this one in the first round.

Welcome to the inaugural edition of my column, the Downes Side. So what will this column contain? Basically, think of it like that movie the Blind Side, but with fight predictions. There will be an engaging character, a giant football player-type, a feel good story and it will culminate with me getting an award as undeserving as Sandra Bullock’s Oscar (Helen Mirren got robbed!). 

Shifting from UFC fighter to UFC writer may seem quite different, but there are a number of similarities. For one, they both disappoint your relatives. As one unnamed family member told me, “Great, you’ve traded one dead end profession for another.” Plus, both are hazardous to your health: Writing has less physical trauma, but supposedly comes with more alcoholism and drug abuse. 

December 30’s UFC 141 and New Year’s Eve have a lot in common, too. Both are highly anticipated events with winners and losers. So come Saturday morning after the Friday night fights, who will be buying champagne by the magnum and who be alone at midnight with no one to kiss, searching for some type of sign to tell them they everything they’ve worked for the last few years hasn’t been in vain, crying into their pillow as they workshop their one-liners for the UFC 142 prediction column…. anyway, on with my picks.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafsson
Both
of these guys come into this fight looking to build on the momentum
they’ve been gathering. Alexander Gustafsson has rattled off three in a
row, the most recent being TKOing Matt Hamill into retirement. Vladimir Matyushenko is coming in after a 20 second finish of Jason Brilz in August and 15 years of experience (“The Mauler” was 10 when Matyushenko made his pro MMA debut.)

Gustafsson
has a great future in the UFC, but he won’t have a great Saturday
night. The deciding factor here is power and Matyushenko’s will be too
much for Gustafsson to handle.

Prediction: “The Janitor”
cleans up and the Swede goes down in the second round; which is still
longer than my last piece of IKEA furniture lasted. 

Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks
Jon Fitch hasn’t lost a fight since 2008 and his last loss before that was 2002. Despite that impressive record, his fighting style hasn’t endeared himself to fans. The good news for fans is that Johny Hendricks has a wrestling pedigree that could prevent Fitch from executing his game plan. The bad news is that fans don’t get to pick fights, otherwise GSP and Anderson Silva would headline every event, which would take place under PRIDE rules.

Plus, all the blue-chip rasslin’ won’t matter, because Hendricks also has the tendency to want to stand and bang. He’ll tag Fitch with a couple good strikes, rush for the kill, overcommit himself to a big shot and that will give Fitch an opening to get him down.

Prediction: Fitch wins this one after 15 and then takes the title from GSP—the one for most decision victories in UFC history.

Nate Diaz vs. Cowboy Cerrone
This
has fight of the night written all over it. We could talk about who
would take the edge with regards to grappling ability, but let’s be
honest, the only way one of these guys is going to the ground is if he’s
unconscious. And with the chins on these two, that’s probably even more
unlikely. 

Both of these scowling scrappers have slick
submission games and good cardio, leaving this bad blood bout to be
determined on the feet. Both like to use their long limbs and range to
tag opponents (sometimes even at pre-fight press conferences) and don’t focus on big power shots. Diaz may be more of a
“quantity over quality” guy when it comes to strikes, but Cerrone isn’t
too far behind.

Prediction: This one goes to the judges
and Cerrone wins by split decision. That’ll make Nate angry, and you
wouldn’t like it when a Diaz gets angry.

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem
The
general consensus about this fight is that Overeem wins this easily
because Lesnar “can’t take a punch” (one of the few things I excelled at
– he should have called me to help him train).  I don’t know if Brock
has gotten a better chin since his last fight, but it won’t come to
that. I see him charging like a mustang to secure the takedown, and this
will be one horse that Overeem can’t eat.

Prediction: Once he gets top control, Lesnar will use his ground and pound and the ref will stop this one in the first round.

That
concludes the first edition of the Downes Side. If you liked it, leave
some comments, suggestions and predictions of your own. If you didn’t –
keep it to yourself. I can’t afford to get fired from another job.