Author: By Michael DiSanto

DIAZ IS MUST-SEE TV, TITLE SHOT NEXT

For purists, a fight is a fight, regardless of who is competing. I’m not a purist. I enjoy watching some guys compete more than others, and for the moment, at least, the Diaz brothers are at the very top of my list. Nate Diaz reminded me of that on Saturday night.

His thrilling win over Jim Miller not only earned the Stockton slugger his first shot at UFC gold, it brought the third consecutive post-fight bonus check. This time, he won “Submission of the Night” honors for his slick tap out of a man who had never before been stopped in his professional career.

Diaz now has nine post-fight bonuses in 16 UFC fights. In other words, more often than not, Diaz thrills the crowd with the “Fight of the Night,” “Knockout of the Night,” or “Submission of the Night.” Maybe that isn’t such a big deal when a fighter only has a handful of UFC bouts under his belt. It is amazingly impressive when a fighter has competed 16 times.

The nine post-fight bonus awards means Diaz is only a single bonus check shy of Chris Lytle’s record of 10. Because styles make fights, and Diaz’s style almost always forces an opponent to fight in entertaining fashion, it seems likely that his next bout will bring a record-tying performance.

As mentioned, Diaz’s next bout will be for the UFC lightweight championship. That means he will either face reigning champion Benson Henderson or the man Bendo snatched the title from, Frankie Edgar, probably sometime this fall. I guess that opportunity could get delayed if Bendo and Edgar fight to an ultra-close decision, with Edgar getting the nod. A rubber match would almost certainly be appropriate in that situation.

Barring that outcome or an injury, Diaz will likely face the winner of Bendo-Edgar this winter. Both Bendo and Edgar are all-action fighters who love to get down and dirty. That makes for a beautiful dance partner for Diaz, who I predict will set a new record for UFC post-fight bonuses before the end of 2013.

REMEMBER DANA’S WORDS

I know Josh Koscheck is frustrated right now. I’m sure his fans are equally frustrated. From my vantage point, he received the wrong end of the split decision on Saturday night. I scored the fight 29-28 for the reality show alumnus, giving him what I viewed as fairly comfortable 10-9 scores for the first and third rounds. Hendricks easily won the second round, in my opinion. Two of the three judges in New Jersey disagreed with me, scoring it 29-28 the other way.

Whether you agree with me or the two judges who scored the fight in favor of Hendricks, there is no denying the fact that the fight was close. It was an entertaining back-and-forth affair. One that I’m sure UFC President Dana White would point to when preaching his mantra to his army of competitors – never allow the judges to decide a fight.

The reality is it’s tough to really try and force a stoppage at any point in a fight because overaggressiveness leaves the attacker wide open to be knocked out or submitted with a counter move. It’s even tougher to convince a guy to take those risks when he believes the fight is even heading into the last round. Yet, that is apparently what Kos needed to do heading into the third round on Saturday night.

Who do you think won the fight?

THE GREAT BEARD DEBATE

Do bushy beards provide some level of protection from punches? I have no idea, to be honest. It seems likely that they help to some degree. Sort of like an organic pad, right? Again, I don’t know.

The question has been raised more than once in 2012, as mountain man look-alikes, such as Roy Nelson and, more recently, Johny Hendricks brushed off monstrous shots to the jaw like they were jabs. I guarantee that more than a few fans of The Ultimate Fighter are probably wondering whether the cheek fur sported by quarterfinalist Michael Chiesa will play any role in his journey to capture the vaunted “six-figure contract.”

I did a bit of Internet research on the subject, expecting to find some sort of guidance. I assumed that some sports scientist would have allowed curiosity to get the better of him. Well, if there is a learned piece out there on the topic, I certainly couldn’t find it.

There is no arguing that both Nelson and Hendricks have tremendous chins. The world has known that about Nelson his entire career. We learned that for sure about Hendricks on Saturday night. It remains to be seen whether Chiesa belongs in that iron-jawed club.

So, there you have it. Nelson and Hendricks are definitive proof that a beard helps, right? Opponents of that theory will quickly point out that Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson and Alessio Sakara both donned remarkably full beards when they got brutally knocked out by Seth Petruzelli and Brian Stann, respectively.

Is that definitive proof that a beard doesn’t help? No.  Four is not a big enough representative sample to be statistically relevant. It is just enough to give anyone a little support for whichever side of the debate fence he or she sits on.

For the record, I think has to help to some degree, even if only a miniscule amount. What do you think?

IS JOHNSON THE NEXT HEAVYWEIGHT STAR? LET’S NOT GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES JUST YET

Lavar Johnson is one bad dude – a seriously bad dude.

Anyone who can basically bully, beat up and then knock out Pat Barry is a scary human being. Johnson did just that on Saturday night.

That makes it two spectacular knockout wins in his first two UFC bouts. Both came against extremely durable guys. The most recent, as mentioned, came against one of the most dangerous strikers in the game.

Those performances definitely demand attention in the UFC heavyweight division. They have to make even the roughest, toughest strikers take a bit of a pause when thinking about slugging it out with Johnson. Yet, before we anoint this guy as the next great heavyweight, we have to remember that final two Strikeforce fights resulted in submission losses, and not from particularly accomplished heavyweight grapplers.

We need to see Johnson demonstrate great takedown and/or submission defense before we get the hype train running too fast. Let’s not forget that, despite knocking Barry out, he got taken down and easily mounted by a guy with a relatively modest ground game, as far as UFC heavyweights go. Yes, I know Barry is working hard on his wrestling and submissions, but nobody is going to confuse him for Frank Mir any time soon.

The win should be enough to earn Johnson a marquee matchup on an upcoming main card. A bout with former interim champion Shane Carwin would be a tremendously fun fight. A matchup with former TUF winner Roy Nelson is another one that instantly comes to mind as a great next bout for Johnson. The former would be another crazy bombing exhibition. The latter would be a stiff test of Johnson’s takedown defense and ground game, assuming Nelson decided to focus on getting the action to the mat.

BELCHER TAKES HIS CAREER TO THE NEXT LEVEL

Alan Belcher has always had a ton of potential. The Arkansas native has been a mainstay in the UFC middleweight division since debuting nearly six years ago, but he has never been universally viewed as a legitimate title contender. The one thing that has eluded him all along was a career-defining win to propel him to admission into the 185-pound Preferiti.

That is no longer the case. Belcher’s TKO win over Rousimar Palhares instantly inserts him into the title mix. Not because Palhares was close to a title shot. I doubt he was anywhere near the top of the UFC’s short list of possible opponents for Anderson Silva, assuming the champ can survive a second bout with Chael Sonnen, which is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination.

Belcher’s win propels him toward the top of the division because of the way he beat Palhares. “Toquinho” is one of the best ground fighters in the sport and certainly the best leg lock artist. Most would have assumed that it would be MMA suicide for Belcher to play the submission and ground position game with Palhares, particularly if he got a hold of one of Belcher’s legs.

That is precisely what happened. Palhares had a good grasp of Belcher’s right leg early in the fight and was in good position to sink in a knee bar or heel hook. Belcher would have none of it. He defended expertly and even attempted to attack with submissions of his own from the tenuous position.

After moving to the top position, commentator extraordinaire Joe Rogan, who is one of the most knowledgeable MMA minds on the planet, was imploring Belcher to retreat back to his feet. Again, spending time in Pahlares’ guard is precisely what the Brazilian wanted. Belcher didn’t care. He not only stayed in his foe’s guard. He pounded him out from that position.

The win was a vivid display of just how talented and well rounded Belcher really is. The win should have been his seventh in a row. Most, including me, believe that he was robbed in his split decision loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama back in July 2009. Correct that outcome and Belcher can make a tremendous argument for the number one contender spot. He is probably one more win away from truly earning the spot, but he is definitely in the discussion after the way he beat Palhares.

A bout with Michael Bisping or the winner of the rematch between Vitor Belfort and Wanderlei Silva could be just what the doctor ordered for Belcher to earn his first shot at UFC gold.

Very few things are certain when it comes to the UFC lightweight division.

Benson Henderson is the champion. Barring injury, he will make the first defense of his crown later this year against the man he snatched it from, Frankie Edgar.

Beyond that, little is cut in stone. For example, it is nearly impossible to state with certainty who sits in the number one contender spot. Is it Anthony Pettis, the last man to defeat Henderson? What about former champion and future Hall of Famer BJ Penn? Don’t pay any attention to his retirement talk. This guy will fight again. I’m as certain of that as death and taxes. What about Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, who is one of the most talented lightweights on the planet not currently competing in the UFC? Some would actually argue that he is the best of the best, period.

Of course, we cannot forget perennial contenders Nate Diaz and Jim Miller. The pair will square off on in the main event of the UFC’s third live broadcast on FOX this Saturday night. Many believe that the winner will move to the head of the championship challenger queue. A boring win probably won’t “get ‘er done,” to quote Larry the Cable Guy. If, however, the winner scores a decisive victory or survives a thrilling back-and-forth war, then I definitely agree with the masses. The winner will almost certainly stand next in line.

A likely title eliminator on network television in primetime. How is that for pressure? Pretty intense, isn’t it?

Many fighters cave in the face of such pressure. They go out and fight not to lose, rather than fighting to win. It makes for disastrous television.

While I cannot guarantee anything, it seems extremely unlikely that Diaz and Miller will do anything other than let it all hang out in front of millions of viewers in a desperate attempt to secure their first shot at a UFC championship. The statistics back up that claim, too.

Diaz is one of the most decorated post-fight award winners in UFC history. More than half of his 15 trips to the Octagon resulted in an “of the night” bonus, making him one of the most thrilling fighters in the sport today. Miller doesn’t quite rise to Diaz’s level, in terms of fan-friendly outings, but he is no slouch. One quarter of his UFC bouts earned him a lucrative and career-enhancing post-fight bonus.

It’s no accident that these guys are headlining UFC on FOX 3. UFC President Dana White expects it to be a barnburner, with the winner being perfectly positioned to present himself to the world as the next in line for the winner of Henderson-Edgar II.

This fight is extremely easy to break down. It is the quintessential striker versus grappler bout, with a twist.

There is no doubt that Diaz wants to keep the fight on the feet. His standup game, though extremely unorthodox, is one of the most effective in the division. He is basically a carbon copy of his older brother Nick. Nate walks down opponents from a southpaw stance. He paws with both hands, reaching out as if he is trying to grasp his opponent’s wrists. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, he turns a paw into a slapping shot.

Normally, slapping shots are ineffective. The Diaz brothers have somehow figured out how to turn those shots into whipping, effective punches. Neither has true one-punch knockout power. They instead swarm opponents and overwhelm them with activity.

Nate absolutely wants to do that against Miller. His game plan is to use non-stop offense as a way to defend. He wants to keep his hands moving and completely forget about kicks, unless they are at the end of punches. That is OK because Diaz isn’t much of a kicker in the first place. He is a technically brilliant brawler who uses unyielding pressure to break an opponent’s will before breaking his body.

Miller, by contrast, is more of a reactionary fighter, rather than an aggressive predator. He has serviceable standup, but his bread and butter is getting foes to the ground and either beating them up or, far more likely, using his ground-and-pound attack to force his opponent to give up his back to try and escape the onslaught and then sinking in a choke. He did exactly that in his last fight.

Facing the ultra-explosive and always entertaining Melvin Guillard, Miller had to wade through extremely deep waters after getting dominated on the feet early in the first round. But before the round ended, he found a way to get it to the ground and he used his impressive ground skills to secure a submission through superior ground control and excellent grappling technique.

A black belt under Jamie Cruz, Miller is a vastly underrated submission specialist. Most consider him a wrestler first. I disagree. I view him as a top-focused ground fighter, one who equally blends wrestling, BJJ and ground-and-pound. His major weakness, however, remains both his standup and his inability to really offer dangerous submissions from his back against top opponents.

It stands to reason that Diaz will seek to exploit the first of those weaknesses, but won’t have the takedown chops to try and take advantage of the second.  Diaz will almost certainly want to use his tremendous height and reach advantages to keep the action on the outside in order to help avoid the takedown. If the takedown comes, he won’t panic. That is the twist. Diaz is a black belt under Cesar Gracie, so he is one of the more comfortable fighters from his back in the division.

I will actually take that one step further. Diaz has one of the most spectacular offensive guards in the division. He isn’t intimidated by being on his back against anyone.

The reality, though, is he has struggled from his back with guys who posses great top games and very good submission defense. Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida both fit that description, and they each ground out victories over the former reality television star. Thus, it is tough to imagine him having success from his back against a top-focused fighter like Miller, who, as mentioned above, is also a black belt.

Miller has only three losses in his professional career. All three came against superior wrestlers – Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard and Benson Henderson. He has faced many, many superior strikers, and has defeated each of them. That suggests that he should be able to pass the Diaz test, since the Stockton native is nowhere near Miller in terms of wrestling skills.

I’m not so sure. Diaz presents a different sort of standup game than anything that Miller has ever seen before. He doesn’t overcommit, like Guillard did. He is rarely out of position. And he is becoming better and better at incorporating his sprawl into his boxing.

If Diaz is able to keep the fight off the ground, he wins easy. Sure, Miller could win by shocking knockout. He blasted Kamal Shalorus out of there with a series of punches followed by a knee just over a year ago. Anyone can get knocked out on any given night in mixed martial arts. But Diaz isn’t Shalorus. And Miller isn’t winning this fight by knockout – not on the feet, at least.

Can I see Diaz winning by slick submission from his back or maybe catching a standing guillotine? Sure. A Cesar Gracie black belt has the ability to win any fight by submission if an opponent makes a mistake. It just isn’t likely, because Miller is extremely good from the top.

This fight is a tough fight to call, when it is all said and done. All I know for certain is that it has all the ingredients of a great fight. If forced to pick, I’m currently leaning toward Diaz. He has more tools in his arsenal, and he is arguably coming off the two most impressive performances of his professional career – utter dominations of Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone.

Then again, when I started writing this piece a couple of hours ago, my mind was leaning toward Miller, a guy who has only lost once in his last nine fights. And that was to reigning champion Henderson. If he can get Diaz to the ground and keep him there, this could be one of the more intriguing and fast-paced ground battles of the year.

Maybe tomorrow I’ll lean toward a draw. Who knows?

Who do you think will win and why? Fill up the comment section below. I’ll be reading, as always.

QUICK FACTS

Nate Diaz
•    27 years old
•    6’0
•    155 lbs
•    76-inch reach
•    15-7 overall
•    3-2 in last 5
•    5-5 in last 10
•    66.7% of wins by submission
•    20.0% of wins by KO/TKO
•    13.3% of wins by decision
•    Has only been stopped once as a professional, armbar loss in 2006
•    53.3% of UFC fights resulted in post-fight award (Submission of the Night 3x, Fight of the Night 5x)
•    Ultimate Fighter Season 5 winner
•    Current layoff is 127 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 310 days

Jim Miller
•    28 years old
•    5’8, 155 lbs
•    71-inch reach
•    21-3 overall
•    4-1 in last 5
•    8-2 in last 10
•    14.3% of wins by KO/TKO
•    57.1% of UFC wins by submission
•    28.6% of UFC wins by decision
•    Has never been stopped in his professional career
•    25% of UFC fights resulted in post-fight award (Submission of the Night 3x, Fight of the Night)
•    Current layoff is 106 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 172 days

JONES TAKES IT TO ANOTHER LEVEL

UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones answered any remaining critics with a virtuoso performance on Saturday night. He completely shut down arch nemesis Rashad Evans in every facet of the game. The win erased any doubt over the legitimacy of his championship reign.

Remember that it was Evans, not Jones, who was originally supposed to face Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 128 in Newark, New Jersey. When Evans injured himself, the UFC opted to substitute in Jones, rather than delay the championship bout until the rightful number one contender healed. That decision sparked controversy inside one of the most successful mixed martial arts teams in the world – Jackson-Winklejohn MMA – and ultimately left a cloud of doubt lingering over Jones’ reign.

Jones not only cleared the skies with his win. He firmly placed himself in the middle of the vaunted pound-for-pound debate with fellow mega stars Georges St-Pierre and Anderson Silva. If one just considers fights since January 1, 2011, it is tough to argue that anyone other than Jones deserves to be considered the sport’s single best competitor.

Let’s take a look at the comparables.

During that span, Jones has five annihilation wins in five fights. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Shogun Rua, Lyoto Machida, and Rashad Evans were all reigning or former champions at the time they faced him. Yet, “Bones” Jones literally outclassed each of them, making it seem like they didn’t belong on the same level as him. Oh yes, before dispatching with all those elite stars, Jones thrashed then-undefeated star prospect Ryan Bader.

GSP and Silva are also undefeated over the last 16-plus months. But the two have combined for only three fights during that period due to injuries. GSP’s lone victory was a decision win over Jake Shields, who arguably has been the best fighter in the world outside of the UFC for the past few years leading up to the GSP fight. While GSP’s win was impressive, it was just one win. Had the champion also faced and defeated Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit, then one could make a great case for GSP being the sport’s most accomplished fighter since January 1, 2011. One win isn’t enough.

Silva only holds two victories during that span. He made former champion Vitor Belfort and perennial top contender Yushin Okami look amazingly ordinary in those two bouts. That in itself is an amazing feat. Add to the mix that Silva, who is currently in the midst of a 14 fight UFC winning streak, holds just about every UFC championship record imaginable, and it is tough to argue that anyone other than Silva deserves the top spot based on a complete body of work.

But we aren’t looking at entire careers right now. We are just looking at the last 16 months. Nobody in the sport has accomplished more than Jones during that period. Nobody has faced tougher competition. And nobody has made more successful title defenses.

2011 was undoubtedly the “Year of Jon Jones.” 2012 might not be any different.

HENDO NEXT UP FOR THE CHAMP

It doesn’t take long for UFC officials to add a sobering dose of reality to a champion’s victory party. Dana White announced after Jones’ dominating win over his bitter rival that Dan Henderson will be up next. For those who don’t have a long memory, this is the same Dan Henderson who won the PRIDE 183-pound and 205-pound belts. He remains the only man in history to simultaneously reign over two divisions of a major fight promotion. This is the same Dan Henderson who savagely knocked out Fedor Emelianenko in a heavyweight bout. Yes, the same Fedor who was once thought to be the most dangerous man on the planet. It is the same Dan Henderson who represented the United States in two separate Olympic games.

Anyone who thinks that his better days are behind him at 41 years old need only look back to UFC 139, where Hendo survived a back-and-forth war with former champion Shogun Rua in what many believe was the best fight in UFC history. We will break down the fight from every angle as it approaches, but Hendo might just be the toughest matchup for Jones so far in his illustrious career – at least on paper that seems to be the case.

IS MACDONALD-GSP THE NEXT JONES-EVANS?

Rory MacDonald won’t turn 23 years old until July 22. Yet, he is already a veteran of five UFC bouts. His only loss among them was a dramatic, come-from-behind win by Carlos Condit at UFC 115. Had he survived seven more seconds, he would be a perfect 5-0 right now, because he was ahead on two of the three scorecards at the time of the stoppage.

Condit is the reigning interim UFC welterweight champion, just in case you forgot. That tells you just how good MacDonald really is. The question now is whether this guy is the future of a division currently ruled by his mentor and training partner Georges St-Pierre?

Several youngsters have entered the UFC amidst tremendous hype. None more so than Vitor Belfort, who, at 19 years old, won a UFC heavyweight tournament. He instantly became one of the sport’s favorite sons. His lightning-fast hands, Gracie pedigree and good looks made him an instant star in the sport’s early years. Yet, it took Belfort seven more years before he finally won his first UFC title. And he wasn’t able to successfully defend it.

Belfort has had a great career and remains one of the very best fighters in the sport, but he has never quite lived up to the tremendous hype that followed him during his early years.

Jon Jones didn’t enter the UFC with the same wave of popular support as Belfort. Some could argue that he competed under the radar for his first several fights before finally getting everyone’s attention with his destruction of Brandon Vera two fights before capturing the 205-pound championship. There is little doubt that Jones has exceeded all but probably his own expectations at this early point in his career. Of course, the expectations for him now are through the proverbial roof. Unless he becomes the next Anderson Silva (or first Jon Jones), I’m not sure whether people will view him as fulfilling his destiny or not.

That brings us to Rory MacDonald. This guy is definitely the real deal. His near-miss with Condit and win over Nate Diaz are vivid evidence of that truism. Expectations for him are building like those for few other 22-year-old fighters in the sport. I’m not so sure he will be able to live up to them any time soon.

That isn’t by any means meant to be a knock on his skills. MacDonald has plenty of those. It is instead the reality of competing in a division that is currently ruled by an all-time great who remains squarely in the prime of his athletic career. GSP turns 31 next month.

Unless GSP starts to decline due to injuries or accumulated cage mileage, it is tough to imagine anyone derailing his career in the short term. Condit certainly has a shot at it. Maybe Johny Hendricks and Nick Diaz, too. But none of those guys will be betting favorites against the champion.

It is equally tough to imagine MacDonald staying out of the welterweight title picture during the next couple of years. So it seems that GSP and MacDonald two are on a collision course, much like Evans and Jones when the two were both training under the same roof.  I know I’m getting way ahead of myself. GSP is currently recovering from an ACL tear and MacDonald is not yet considered a true welterweight contender. He’s also gone on the record saying that he won’t fight his training partner. But I have no doubt that GSP will be back as good as before and MacDonald will enter contender status by the end of the year or possibly early in 2013.

So when the time comes…if the time comes…will GSP and MacDonald compete as teammates? Will one of them leave Zahabi MMA and Tristar Gym as their collision course starts to draw near?

Those questions will make MacDonald’s rise through the division that much more interesting in the coming months and years, in my opinion.

THE TIME IS NOW FOR BROWNE

The UFC heavyweight division is about as deep as it has ever been with guys like Junior dos Santos, Cain Velasquez, Frank Mir, Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt, “Minotauro” Nogueira and others. The UFC now has the luxury of putting on non-title marquee matchups, just like it does in other divisions, to sort out the championship challenger queue.

Travis Browne is ready for one of those marquee matchups.

Five fights into his UFC career, Browne already owns a couple of bonus checks for Submission of the Night and Knockout of the Night. He also has a draw on his record against the well-respected Cheick Kongo – a fight that many believe he should have won. Still undefeated through 14 professional fights, “Hapa,” as he is known, is now ready for the big time.

On Saturday night, Rashad Evans will set out to accomplish something that no other fighter has accomplished. Defeat Jon Jones.

Yeah, yeah, I know Matt Hamill technically owns a win over Jones via disqualification. If you watched that fight, you also know that Jones completely dominated him and was seconds away from scoring a TKO win before the illegal 12-to-6 elbows. The illegal blows did not even cause the stoppage, as Hamill was unable to continue due to a shoulder injury.

So nobody has had any true measure of success against Jones yet in his career. But Rashad Evans isn’t just another fighter. He is a former champion with but a single loss on his own record. He holds stoppage wins over UFC legends Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz. And, most importantly, he has spent untold hours in the gym training and sparring with Jones.

That last fact is undoubtedly the most critical in terms of Evans’ chance at scoring an upset win. In fact, it may actually give him the edge, if you believe people who have witnessed those sparring sessions.

Everyone who faces Jones in combat struggles to deal with his length and striking creativity, primarily because it is impossible to replicate in sparring sessions, which leaves his opponents unprepared come fight time. Most also struggle with his offensive wrestling due to his tremendous Greco-Roman base. And nobody has ever taken him down in a fight. As a result, nobody has been able to defeat him.

Evans doesn’t fall into either of those categories. He is very familiar with Jones’ length and striking creativity because they have competed in standup-only and full MMA sparring sessions on many occasions. Even though Evans could not find a sparring partner to replicate Jones’ standup skills during this training camp, that doesn’t erase the historical knowledge base he has from all of the sessions at Greg Jackson’s MMA academy.

Evans is also, arguably, the better wrestler of the two, whether we are talking straight wrestling or wrestling for MMA. Granted, Jones has the best takedown success ratio in UFC light heavyweight history. But Evans has taken down each and every opponent who he has attempted to take down inside the Octagon, and he also has the most successful takedowns in UFC history, across all weight classes.

More importantly, though, Evans has taken Jones down in practice—many times. Word out of Albuquerque has always been that once Evans takes him down, Jones can’t work back to his feet and definitely doesn’t have the submission game from the guard to pose much of a threat to Evans.

Undoubtedly, someone out there is incredulously ranting like Allen Iverson circa 2002. “I know it’s important, I honestly do but we’re talking about practice. We’re talking about practice man. We’re talking about practice. We’re talking about practice. We’re not talking about the game. We’re talking about practice.”

That is the abridged version.

Yes, we are talking about practice, not actual competition. Yet, unlike with the Iverson situation, where he was defending his decision to skip practice, we are talking about the outcome of two guys who are ultra competitive sparring. That is certainly relevant data when breaking down the fight. It may not be outcome determinative data, but it is relevant data nonetheless.

Jones will absolutely be a different fighter come “go time” than he was in the training cage. So will Evans. Jones has definitely grown as a fighter since his rift with Evans ended their friendship and training partner status. So has Evans. Jones will have some new wrinkles added to his game – new combinations that he likely never attempted full speed in sparring with Evans, particularly spinning kicks or any sort of strike with his heel or elbow that could injure his then-friend. Evans will have to deal with those as a matter of first impression, but he has probably seen just about everything else.

Evans knows what he has to do to win on Saturday night. He needs to get inside of Jones’ long strikes, whether by pressing the action or slipping and countering. The former will force Jones to fight while moving backwards. That is a tough way for anyone to win because it is nearly impossible to throw any sort of strike with authority (unless your name is Chuck Liddell) while retreating. The latter opens the door for Evans’ overhand right, one of the most effective weapons against taller fighters and also his money punch.

Evans also needs to try and bait Jones into over committing on his power shots. Taunts will help with that. These guys don’t like each other. If Evans is having some success on the feet and starts to taunt Jones, the champion will likely react by swinging for the fences. That opens the door for Evans to change levels and get the fight to the ground.

Once on the ground, Evans can really do damage. Opponents don’t easily escape Evans’ top control, so he will be able to wear down the champion and curry favor with the judges, once he scores a takedown. That will be big because Jones isn’t used to fighting from behind.

If I was cornering Evans, I don’t think I would want him to spend much time in the clinch with Jones. Sure, that is a great position to sap some energy from an opponent. But Jones is likely the better Greco guy, so it may allow him to score a throw-style takedown. I don’t know if he can do that to Evans. But nobody else has been able to do much to prevent it in the past.

I would only advise fighting in the clinch if Evans was confident about the position due to their training history together. These guys know in the back of their minds who the better clinch fighter is. For that matter, they know who is the better striker, wrestler, Monopoly player and just about everything else.

The fact that Evans has campaigned so hard for this fight suggests to me that he truly believes that he will win on Saturday night. Unless he is totally delusional, that confidence has to be the result of their sparring sessions, which, again, is noteworthy data.

Will Evans pull it off? I don’t know. I think the Evans of the past – the ultra-confident homerun hitter who feasted on foes with his unbelievably fast fists – has the best chance to defeat Jones. The problem is I don’t think that Evans exists any more. We haven’t seen him since his loss to Lyoto Machida. Every time Evans faces someone with any kind of fistic power, it seems as if he is wondering if the knockout punch is just moments away.

Luckily for Evans, Jones doesn’t have true one-punch knockout power. If he does, we certainly haven’t seen it yet. Maybe the Evans of old will resurface. Maybe, just maybe, it will be the same Rashad Evans who obliterated Liddell and destroyed Forrest Griffin.

If that guy truly doesn’t exist anymore, then Evans needs to do just what he has done in basically each fight since losing to Machida – use calculated strikes to set up takedowns and control the action from the ground. I don’t know if he can take down Jon Jones, but I certainly wouldn’t put it past him. Not by a mile.

At the end of the day, I think this fight is much closer than most believe. He certainly has a much better chance than the massive betting line suggests. If I had to pick a winner, my gut leans towards Jones, but for some reason, my head leans towards Evans.

How is that for sitting on the fence?

QUICK FACTS

Rashad Evans
•    32 years old
•    5’11, 205 lbs
•    74.5-inch reach
•    22-1-1 overall
•    4-1 in last 5 fights
•    8-1-1 in last 10 fights
•    4-1-1 against 5 current or former UFC champions
•    41.7% of UFC wins by TKO/KO
•    58.3% of UFC wins by decision
•    No UFC wins by submission
•    Lone professional loss by knockout
•    Former UFC light heavyweight champion
•    147-day reign as champion; no successful title defenses
•    Former heavyweight winner on The Ultimate Fighter
•    Fight of the Night (TKO2 over Tito Ortiz at UFC 133)
•    Fight of the Night (TKO3 over Forrest Griffin to win UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 92)
•    Knockout of the Night (KO2 over Chuck Liddell at UFC 88)
•    Knockout of the Night (KO2 over Sean Salmon at UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon)
•    Current layoff is 84 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 434 days

He is, by most accounts, the chosen one.

Just 24 years old, Jon Jones is the reigning UFC light heavyweight champion. He became the youngest man to ever win UFC gold when he defeated Mauricio “Shogun” Rua 13 months ago. And he has seemed pretty close to unbeatable in two fights that followed – one-sided submission wins over former champions Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida.

On Saturday night, he faces former friend and training partner turned bitter rival, Rashad Evans. With all the press attention and continued questions about their falling out, it is likely that this will be the most emotional fight of Jones’ career.

He claims otherwise. He tells anyone who will listen that Evans is just another opponent. But both of those are far from the truth. Extremely far from the truth.

Jones wants this win as badly as any in his career to date. I guarantee it. That, in and of itself, could pose a problem. Jones has to be very careful not to fight from emotion, but instead to remain calm, cool and calculating, like he has in each of his previous 16 professional fights.

Forget knockouts. Forget trying to hurt Evans. Just fight like it is any other fight. Otherwise, he is playing right into his opponent’s game plan because over aggressiveness on the feet opens the door for takedowns, and that is the one area that Jones wants to avoid at all costs.

Keep in mind that Evans’ main focus in this fight will likely be to take Jones to the ground. He reportedly had success in keeping him there during their training sessions at Greg Jackson’s academy. Word out of Albuquerque is that Jones struggled to work back to his feet against Evans, who has one of the better top control games in the division.  

It is likely, therefore, that Evans will come out looking to do whatever he can to get the fight to the ground to bring back that sense of déjà vu from their prior training sessions. That is when Evans will be his most confident and Jones will be at his most vulnerable.

Of course, that isn’t the only reason for Jones not to go nuts on the feet. Evans also has homerun power. I know he hasn’t shown it much in recent fights, but this guy has the speed and power to leave Jones or anyone else lying in an unconscious heap in the Octagon with a single punch.

Jones knows that. He also knows that he enjoys the technical standup advantage, as well as nearly a 10-inch reach advantage, which means avoiding any unnecessary phone booth exchanges in order to minimize the odds of eating a fight-ending counter or otherwise getting taken down.

So, how does that play out in practice?

Simple. Jones should do exactly what he does in every fight – control the distance with the jab, whether from the orthodox or southpaw stance. The champion has one of the best jabs in the division. He fires it with tremendous speed and accuracy without a hitch or anything else that tips it off. And he throws it equally well from either stance, which is almost unheard of in mixed martial arts.

Jones can potshot Evans with the jab from a safe distance due to his height and reach advantages. Continuous focus on his footwork to keep changing angles off the jab is also critical because it further reduces Evans timing the jab with a counter or duck-under takedown attempt.

Continual movement is critical because Evans has a slight speed advantage in this fight. His hands are about as fast as they come. The way to counter speed is with movement and a jackhammer jab, whereas the jab in isolation leads to getting countered.

Anyone who watched Alexander Gustafsson batter Thiago Silva knows what I’m talking about. That was a perfect display on how to frustrate an opponent with a stick-and-move strategy. Silva, who is the more powerful striker of the two, was left completely baffled by Gustafsson’s movement and potshotting attack. Gustafsson ate counters the few times he stood still to admire his work. Jones needs to keep that in mind.

Single jabs aren’t enough, though. Jones needs to double up on the jab from time to time, as well as firing good one-two combinations followed by a cleanup leg kick. That will keep Evans guessing, and a fighter who is guessing is a fighter who doesn’t confidently pull the trigger, if he pulls it at all.

As Evans’ frustration builds, Jones can start to mix in his crazy, highlight reel strikes. You know, spinning backfists and elbows, the occasional flying knee or spinning kick, or anything else that strikes his fancy. He needs to be careful about unleashing those too early because those strikes open the door for takedowns, other than maybe spinning backfists.

Similarly, Jones should forget about lead leg kicks. Those are too dangerous in terms of takedown opportunities, particularly early in the fight. Finishing counters with leg kicks, on the other hand, is a tremendous way to start hammering away at Evans’ explosiveness, but the kick must immediately follow the right hand to avoid creating openings for counters.

The one thing I’m not sure of, as I sit here and write this breakdown, is what Jones should do if Evans is able to sneak inside and initiate a clinch. Should he defend and retreat? Should he fight the clinch battle and look to use his unbelievable in-fighting game to further batter his foe? Or, should he look for a judo or Greco throw?

Conventional wisdom suggests that Jones shouldn’t engage Evans where he is the strongest, which is the wrestling realm. But I thought the same thing when Jones fought Brandon Vera, a tremendous wrestler in his own right, and Matt Hamill.

I wonder if either Vera or Hamill can match Evans’ MMA-style wrestling? I’m inclined to argue that Evans is the best MMA-focused wrestler in the division.  He has proven that time and time again with his ability to take down just about anyone, and certainly stuff takedowns from everyone.

But Jones is an athletic freak. He continually shocks me when he fights. He hasn’t been outwrestled yet in his career. What makes anyone think that Evans will be able to pull that off?

I honestly don’t know. What I do know is that both Jones and Evans have a sense as to how the wrestling battle will unfold thanks to their history as training partners. Jones knows if he can neutralize Evans’ wrestling. Evans knows, too. I must admit, however, that I don’t know.

Unless Jones knows for sure that he can win the takedown battle, I think he is best served fighting at a distance, just like he did with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and how Gustafsson did with Silva (though for other reasons).

If he does that, he will present Evans with an exceedingly difficult riddle to solve. If he does that and remains focused on not creating unnecessary openings, I think he is the favorite to win.

But nobody can count out a guy like Rashad Evans. He is a former champion in his own right and still one of the very best fighters in the world, one who is fully capable of putting a momentary halt to the Jon Jones saga. That is why this is must-see TV.

QUICK FACTS:

Jon Jones
•    24 years old
•    6’4, 205 lbs
•    84.5-inch reach
•    15-1 overall
•    Six fight winning streak
•    Lone UFC loss was a DQ for illegal elbow strikes to Matt Hamill in a fight Jones was dominating
•    Reigning UFC light heavyweight champion
•    Two successful defenses so far
•    3-0 against current or former champions – all three wins inside the distance
•    Last eight fights ended inside the distance
•    53.3% of wins by KO/TKO
•    33.3% of wins by submission
•    13.4% of wins by decision
•    Fight of the Night (SUB2 over Lyoto Machida at UFC 140; SUB2 over Quinton Jackson at UFC 135)
•    Knockout of the Night (TKO1 over Brandon Vera at UFC Live: Vera vs Jones)
•    Submission of the Night (SUB2 over Ryan Bader at UFC 126)
•    Current layoff is 133 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 188 days

Alexander Gustafsson and Thiago Silva are both on the precipice of championship contention. Yet, each will enter the Octagon this weekend with very different levels of momentum.

Silva has only fought twice in the last 27 months. A back injury and then a failed drug test following an impressive performance against Brandon Vera leaves Silva in light heavyweight limbo. His contender status could very easily disappear if he loses on Saturday night in the UFC on FUEL TV main event in Stockholm, Sweden. His inactivity over the last couple of years raises serious questions about cage rust and focus. Yet, an impressive win can erase all of those doubts and put his suspension firmly in the rear-view mirror.

Gustafsson, on the other hand, is riding a four-fight winning streak over the last 18 months, stopping each of those opponents inside of two rounds. His recent run has taken him from UFC anonymity to a main event in his hometown. If he can defeat Silva, Gustafsson will definitely stand among the short list of championship contenders. A loss, by contrast, will raise questions about his ability to take his career to the next level.

A lot is on the line this weekend. But that isn’t the only reason to watch this fight. This is a mouth-watering matchup that will thrill all-action, standup-first fans, because both fighters love to get in there and bang.

Silva is the epitome of a predator. He only knows how to fight one way – coming forward in attack mode. He is the quintessential Chute Boxe Academy fighter in that regard. He learned this style growing up in the sport with teammates like Wanderlei Silva and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

Silva has spent the past four years fighting out of the American Top Team gym, which has rounded him out a bit. For example, he actually moves his head from time to time, but when the pressure is on, he reverts back to planting his feet and going to war.

Fighting with that style is a great way to approach Gustafsson, who is a taller, longer fighter. The Swede is a boxer by background, so his use of movement and the jab makes him a difficult puzzle to solve, unless someone is willing to wade into the heart of darkness and just throw down. Silva is planning on doing just that.

I also would not be surprised to see Silva take the action to the ground, if he either finds himself struggling to deal with Gustafsson’s crisp strikes or just wants to keep his foe guessing. He did just that against Brandon Vera in his last fight. Vera is a savage standup fighter, just like Silva, but he also has high-level wrestling in his arsenal. The Brazilian shocked everyone by putting Vera on his back and dominating the action with ground and pound.

He can do the same thing to Gustafsson, who is light years below Vera in terms of his wrestling skills. Once the fight hits the ground, Silva has a solid edge. Gustafsson is a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with solid, but not stellar, ground skills. Silva is a legitimate black belt. He has excellent submissions from the top and bottom positions, and his ground control is even better than his submission game. We saw that against Vera, who is an extremely difficult fighter to control on the canvas.

Of course, I’m not suggesting that Gustafsson is a fish out of water in the wrestling or BJJ worlds. He showed tremendous takedown defense against Phil Davis in the first half of the opening round of their UFC 112 bout. Davis, who is now a teammate of Gustafsson, is a vastly superior wrestler compared to Silva. But Davis poses no real threat on the feet. Thus, Gustafsson could focus on defending takedowns, without much concern about catching a fight-altering blow on the chin. That won’t be the case on Saturday night, so I’ll be interested to see if the Swede will show the same sort of anti-wrestling against Silva. My guess is that he won’t be nearly as effective.

As a result, Gustafsson needs to remain focused on controlling the distance with his long, jackhammer jab. When Silva lunges in with his power punches, Gustafsson can either remain in the pocket looking to slip and counter with a hard left hook or right uppercut (arguably his best weapon), or use his footwork to change angles and fire a straight right hand, also a one-strike knockout weapon.

Granted, it has been a few years now, but Silva still has a one-punch knockout loss on his record. Lyoto Machida dropped him with a single strike back in January 2009. Gustafsson cracks harder than Machida, so there is no doubt in my mind that he can score a knockout if he catches his foe with a blind shot.

That doesn’t mean Gustafsson should recklessly seek the knockout. Quite the opposite is true because Silva carries more power in his fists than his foe. He doesn’t have better technique, but Silva is definitely the more explosive of the two. Thus, Gustafsson should pick and choose his spots – darting in and out behind the jab, landing a few power shots and getting out of Dodge.

If I were Gustafsson, I would avoid the ground at all costs, unless Silva is already on the edge of unconsciousness or exhaustion. I think he has enough of an advantage on the feet, assuming he uses good footwork and distance, that there is no point in trying to take advantage for any takedown openings.

Like I mentioned in the beginning of the piece, I think this is a stellar stylistic matchup, one that should produce lots of fan-friendly fireworks. There are so many questions lingering over Silva right now that it is tough to expect a statement performance from the Brazilian. Yet, that is exactly what I think will happen. We’ll see if I’m right.

QUICK FACTS

Alexander Gustafsson
•    25 years old
•    6’5, 205 lbs
•    13-1 overall
•    4-1 in last 5
•    9-1 in last 10
•    69.2% of wins by KO/TKO
•    23.1% of wins by submission
•    7.7% of wins by decision
•    Only 1 of 14 professional fights lasted the distance (1-0 in that fight)
•    Current layoff is 106 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 234 days

Thiago Silva
•    29 years old
•    6’1, 205 lbs
•    14-2, 1 NC overall
•    2-2, 1 NC in last 5
•    7-2, 1 NC in last 10
•    78.6% of wins by KO/TKO
•    14.3% of wins by submission
•    7.1% of wins by decision
•    Only 3 of 17 professional fights lasted the distance (1-1, 1 NC in those fights)
•    Current layoff of 469 days is the longest of his career