Author: By Michael DiSanto

ELLENBERGER BECOMING TOUGH TO IGNORE

Jake Ellenberger added to his rapidly growing win streak by overwhelming a game Diego Sanchez on Wednesday night. It was an easy fight to score. Ellenberger controlled the action on the ground and on the feet through the first two rounds. A spirited rally by Sanchez wasn’t enough to offset the 10-minutes of effective work Ellenberger put in during the early parts of the fight. But the back-and-forth was enough to earn each man a $50,000 check for the “Fight of the Night” award. WATCH FIGHT HIGHLIGHTS

Ellenberger now has six consecutive wins on his resume, after suffering a loss in his UFC debut. Think about it for a moment. Other than Nick Diaz’s multi-year winning streak that recently got abruptly ended courtesy of Carlos Condit, who else in the division has put together a run over the last couple of years that is more deserving of a number one contender standing than Ellenberger? Jon Fitch? No. Josh Koscheck? No. Sanchez or maybe Thiago Alves? Certainly not. Jake Shields or Johny Hendricks? Try again.

For my money, Ellenberger now stands alone behind Condit in the 170-pound pecking order. It will be interesting to see if the interim champion chooses to take an optional defense, or if he will sit on the sidelines and wait for the true welterweight kingpin, Georges St-Pierre, to return from a torn anterior cruciate ligament. That decision will likely impact whether Ellenberger gets the much coveted first shot at Condit or if he will need to win yet another fight in order to secure a shot at UFC gold.

My guess is that Condit will wait, rather than risk his pending bout with GSP. I wouldn’t advise him to go down that path, but all signs seem to be pointing in that direction right now, which means Ellenberger will likely fight in an official title eliminator next. Could that be a bout with the winner of the May 5 bout between Kos and Hendricks? Sounds like the perfect matchup to me.

BIGFOOT SIGHTING!

Man, Dave Herman is one furry guy. From the bushy beard that extended down to his Adam’s apple to the body-hair sweater he rocked inside the Octagon, I don’t think I can recall someone who has recently competed in the UFC who more closely resembled Bigfoot. Andrei Arlovski could also be confused for a Wookie when he doesn’t partake in the phenomenon that has become known in recent years as “manscaping.” But he doesn’t quite rise to Herman’s level in the Bigfoot look-alike contest. WATCH FIGHT HIGHLIGHTS

The crazy amounts of fur may have been exaggerated because Herman was competing against a guy who could easily be confused with Mr. Clean. Stefan Struve appeared hairless from head to toe. It was quite the contrast in human appearance.

Of course, none of that is relevant to the actual fight. Herman’s bushy beard did not save him from getting knocked out. And the sweater didn’t factor into the outcome, other than possibly contributing to a good warm up. Yet, a day later, Herman’s physical transformation remains the most memorable part of what was a pretty entertaining fight.

SIMPSON-MARKES HIGHLIGHTS THE WEAKNESS IN THE CURRENT SCORING SYSTEM

Mixed martial arts is a tough sport to judge. No question about it. But I’m struggling to understand a few of the scorecards.

Aaron Simpson nearly knocked out Ronny Markes in the first round of their contest. He also dished out a pretty good beating on the ground – to the tune of 19 unanswered ground strikes. WATCH FIGHT HIGHLIGHTS

The second round was a much closer round. Neither man really hurt the other. The only significant moment was a takedown by Markes, but he didn’t do much with the takedown, aside from landing a couple of decent ground strikes that were a far cry from the frequency or savagery of Simpson’s ground strikes in the opening round.

In the absence of any other differentiatior, a takedown is certainly an appropriate data point to determine the winner of a particular round of completion. But was it enough to justify awarding Markes the same score that the judges awarded Simpson one round earlier?

The easy answer is the score was absolutely appropriate under the current scoring system. Markes won the round. A 10-10 score in the second would have been a complete travesty. Similarly, a 10-8 round for Simpson in the first would have been a crazy outcome. So, what other choice did the judges have, other than scoring the fight even through two?

I think those two rounds perfectly illustrate the need for a new scoring system, one that takes into account squeaking out a round versus nearly getting knocked out or submitted versus taking a savage five-minute beating.

The issue, of course, is that I don’t really know how to score the round, apart from the 10-point must system. Do we add half points? Is there a different answer?  I don’t know. I only know that there has to be something better than the current status quo.

HAS MENJIVAR FOUND HIS GROOVE?

Ivan Menjivar was going nowhere fast when the calendar turned to 2011. The Salvadorian mixed martial artist entered the year having lost three of his last four fights, including his long-awaited debut in the bantamweight division. Honestly, it seemed like he was on a fast track to the mid-major shows. WATCH FIGHT HIGHLIGHTS

Then something happened. I don’t know what it was. But Menjivar found something. Three fights. Three wins, one by each flavor (submission, decision and knockout).

Menjivar is now 3-1 as a bantamweight. After a career spent fighting much larger guys, he finally seems to have found his true home competing against guys who are closer to his natural size. Another win could very well put him into title contention.

 If we are being honest with ourselves, the bantamweight division remains a work in progress, in terms of pecking order.  Sure, there’s reigning champion Dominick Cruz, and former champion and MMA poster boy Urijah Faber is the next in line. Renan Barao arguably stands third. After that, it is anyone’s guess.

Does Menjivar’s three-fight winning streak put him in that next level below Barao? Or, does he need a bigger body of work, after suffering a rough 2006 that lead a temporary retirement that lasted nearly four years?

You tell me. Spell it out in the comments below.

NELSON IS AS TOUGH AS THEY COME

Roy Nelson is one bad dude. Not bad in the behavioral sense. Bad in terms of toughness. Anyone watching his last four fights knows that this guy is near the top of the food chain in terms of durability, heart and grit. He also has better than average power for a heavyweight.

The problem, of course, is that Nelson isn’t a true heavyweight. Not by a mile. The six-foot mixed martial artist has the frame of a middleweight. Despite the fact that he has shed 20 pounds over his last two bouts, he still carries no less than 30 pounds of excess body fat. And I’m probably being generous with that number.

Imagine how good this guy could be, if he could make 185 pounds. I know that is asking a lot. It would require a complete physical transformation. But Nelson wouldn’t be the first guy to pull that off. Former UFC fighter Joe Riggs actually began his career as a 300-pound heavyweight before dropping all the way to 170 pounds. I don’t see any reason why Nelson, with the help of a master dietician and a ton of self-discipline, couldn’t drop to middleweight.

Imagine a lean, muscular Nelson competing against guys with similarly sized skeletal frames. I think he would be an absolute beast, if not a legitimate championship threat. Yes, I know that there is this guy named Anderson Silva who just so happens to rule the middleweight division. He is pretty good, though Nelson has a much better chance against Silva than he does against any of the top heavyweights. He simply gives up too much size and strength to the top heavies, in my opinion.

Plus, I wonder if Silva, Vitor Belfort or any of the other middleweight bombers could stop “Big Country” with strikes. Junior dos Santos, a much bigger, more powerful champion than any middleweight, hit Nelson with everything, including the kitchen sink, and couldn’t knock him out. What makes anyone think that top middles would fare any better?

I also wonder if middleweights could handle Nelson’s power, assuming it the drop in weight wouldn’t adversely impact it. Fabricio Werdum made no bones about the fact that he took lots of painful lumps in his win over Nelson. Frank Mir experienced the same result. And dos Santos ate more than one punch during his dominant win over Nelson that left him second guessing whether he wanted to fight in a phone booth versus dominating from the outside.

I know Nelson is a master at using his added girth to his advantage on the ground. Yet, it is difficult for me to believe that his ground game would suffer from a significant move south on the scales. It’s not like this guy just lays on people. He is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie, so his ground game is a highly technical chess match that I believe would be even more effective against smaller guys.  

Even if 185 pounds is a pipe dream, 205 pounds should not be a very difficult journey. He is already 20 pounds, plus a typical weight cut, away from qualifying for the land of the light heavies. Jon Jones is one of the very best in the game, but just like with Silva, I’d give Nelson a much better chance at upsetting that guy than dos Santos.

KOS STILL STRUGGLING TO FIND COHESION

Make no mistake about it. Josh Koscheck remains one of the top five welterweights in the world. It is a position that the polarizing veteran has occupied for several years. Saturday’s split decision win, one that many believe was wrongly decided by the judges, does nothing to affect his lofty status. A win is a win, and Kos now has 15 of them in 20 trips to the Octagon.

Nonetheless, I’m a bit surprised that Kos continues to struggle to seamlessly blend his world class wrestling skills with a standup game that has become one of the better in the division. Sure, he scored two takedowns, arguably the difference-makers in two of the three judges’ eyes. But the takedowns appeared to be more moves of necessity—dare I suggest desperation—than a natural part of his offensive attack.

It seems to me that Kos prepares for a fight one way or the other—standup or wrestling—and it shows in his performance. Anyone believing that this guy can no longer dominate a bout with his wrestling should pop in the DVD of UFC 113. Kos put on a takedown, ground control and ground-and-pound clinic against Paul Daley on that night. It was a masterful performance of technique, though it was the last time we have seen Kos use his wrestling to dominate the action. That is a complete shame because this guy is wasting his biggest competitive asset.

Kos has a dynamite right hand. He loves to knock people out. Knocking people out, versus holding them down and grinding out wins, tends to result in bigger paydays. All that is fine and good. But the former AKA star (more on that below) will increase his knockout opportunity by forcing opponents to constantly fear the takedown.

The threat of a takedown forces an opponent to keep his hands just a little bit lower so that he can use underhooks to help avoid a trip to the ground. The threat of a takedown prevents an opponent from sitting down in his stance, which means he cannot generate the same power on his own strikes. And, of course, the threat of a takedown all but eliminates kicks, since catching a kick is one of the most effective ways to get the fight to the ground.

I’ve been writing for years that Kos was a future champion. I still believe that to be the case, but only if he starts to truly reincorporate his wrestling into his off attack.

Two other pieces of constructive criticism are warranted. Kos either needs to find away to stop tugging at his shorts. I don’t know if that is a nervous tick or if his thick thighs constantly pull on his fight shorts. Either way, that behavior first reared its head during his second bout with Georges St-Pierre. It has been a constant ever since. He ate several jabs from GSP, Matt Hughes and Pierce solely because his hands were on his thighs, rather than held high in a defensive position. I guarantee opponents are keying strikes off Kos grabbing his shorts. He should find a way to eliminate that hole sooner rather than later.

The second item to consider is the waning use of his left hand. Kos has a very good jab and a tremendous left hook. Yet, he hardly threw either on Saturday night. One-trick strikers are easy to deal with no matter how good that one trick might be. Kos knows that. Increasing the use of his left hand will make his right that much more effective.

KOS SPLITS WITH LONGTIME COACH

I was taken aback when Josh Koscheck announced at the post-fight presser that he would no longer train at the San Jose headquarters for the American Kickboxing Academy. Keep in mind that this guy owns, not one, but two gyms in Fresno, California that bear the AKA name. I have no idea if the decision leave AKA San Jose will affect the licensing rights for those two gyms. That stuff will sort itself out over the coming weeks.

What is interesting about the split is that it apparently isn’t a split from Team AKA. According to an interview with MMAWeekly.com’s Damon Martin, it is actually only a departure from his head coach, Javier Mendez. An irreparable personal rift has apparently developed over the last few years, so Kos has opted to go in a different direction.

The welterweight contender plans to continue having “Crazy” Bob Cook and Dave Camarillo, two of his longtime coaches, prepare him for battle, and both will continue to work his corner during fights, according to Kos. He also plans to provide housing and a paycheck for his close friends and AKA teammates to come up to Fresno for his training camps.

This is an interesting development, for sure. It is newsworthy any time a top fighter makes a coaching change. But I’m not sure if this qualifies as a coaching change, since Cook and Camarillo will remain  constants in his camp. One has to assume that Kos will enlist the help of a new striking coach to replace Mendez, though he has not made any announcements to that effect just yet.

Without getting into the details behind the rift, I think that the change will actually be good for Kos. There is no doubt that his development has become stagnant over the last couple of fights. Maybe the disconnect with Mendez is to blame. Maybe he has become too comfortable in his routine. The maybes are endless. What is certain, though, is that, if Kos really trained himself for the Pierce fight, as he is claiming, then change is an absolute must.

A new voice of authority, new techniques, a change of scenery or all of the above might be just what the doctor ordered for Kos. His routine will obviously be different training out of Fresno, rather than San Jose. Just that little variation from the mundane past might be enough to jumpstart Kos back on the upswing of the developmental curve. Of course, the biggest risk is that his longtime teammates and friends won’t make the journey to Fresno to help Kos prepare. If that happens, he will need to figure out a backup plan for elite training partners. Otherwise, the departure could turn out to be disastrous.

History suggests that Kos will be just fine, possibly even better off. Elite fighters who spend their entire career training with one head coach and in one location are the great exception, not the norm. Reigning or former champions GSP, Rashad Evans, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva, Randy Couture, Vitor Belfort, Rich Franklin, Quinton Jackson, BJ Penn, and a host of others have all made at least one major camp change in their respective careers. The book is still out on Evans, but the rest of them enjoyed tremendous success after making the change. I have a feeling Kos will follow suit.

NEW YEAR, NEW LOOK FOR THE UFC’S TELEVISED PRODUCTION

UFC 143 was the debut for the UFC’s new pay-per-view production format. The intro was a dramatic change from the kneeling gladiator that had become the promotion’s trademark opener. The watermark time clock sported a completely different look. The regular use of on-screen, in-fight statistics appeared for the first time. And the promo for UFC 144 had a totally different feel from 2011 and earlier promos.

Bottom line, I’m a big fan. I absolutely loved the way UFC 143 came across from a production standpoint.  That includes the production for the televised prelims on FX, which clearly had FOX production team written all over them and was a major step up from the 2011 and earlier televised prelims, in my opinion.

What do you think of the new television look and feel? Was it as obvious to you as it was to me? Let me know your thoughts in the comment section below. I’ll be reading, as always.

Watch the UFC® 143 replay

NOT AS ADVERTISED, BUT POSSIBLY THE BEST TACTICAL DISPLAY OF 2012 TO DATE

Anyone who read my pre-fight breakdown knows that I was seriously salivating over what appeared to be a surefire barnburner between Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit. I really thought the matchup had all the necessary ingredients for a “Fight of the Year” performance. The fight certainly didn’t live up to the hype from an all-action standpoint, but that does not, in any way, detract from what was a near flawless performance by Condit.

“The Natural Born Killer” committed to a game plan that consisted of sticking and moving with the use of constantly changing angles. He never varied from that attack, not even for a minute. Sure, Diaz trapped him a few times, forcing Condit to fight with his back against the cage. But those exchanges lasted only a few brief seconds before the new interim champion circled away from the cage and resumed his tactical approach.

Diaz pleaded with him over and over to stand and fight, using vitriolic trash talking, taunts with his hands at his side, and doing just about everything else he could think of to try and goad his foe into a brawl. Condit never gave in to temptation, despite the fact that his natural inclination is to plant his feet and go to war with opponents. Anyone who believes that is easy to do should go back and watch Diaz’s career over the last four or five years. Every one of his opponents, except for British slugger Paul Daley, entered the cage with the same game plan. Only Condit was able to successfully implement it.

While the end result wasn’t a “Fight of the Year” battle, it was a virtuoso tactical performance, arguably the best of 2012 so far.

DEFEND OR NOT TO DEFEND, THAT IS THE QUESTION

Condit’s win over Diaz brought him a share of the championship that he so desperately coveted, but the belt comes with a dilemma. UFC President Dana White revealed after the fight that champion Georges St-Pierre is nowhere near being ready to resume full mixed martial arts training. The current estimate is the champion will finish his rehabilitation sometime in June, which means he won’t likely return to competition until November, at the earliest.

GSP’s health leaves Condit in a precarious position. He has to decide whether to wait for GSP and unify the belts in his next fight or take an optional defense while the Canadian standout is on the mend.  That may seem like an easy choice, but this is anything but an easy decision. Let’s look at both sides of the issue.

The argument in favor of waiting is an easy one to make. First and foremost, Condit knows that his title is only a placeholder until GSP returns. He will forever be able to refer to himself as a UFC titlist, but not a champion, until he defeats GSP (or GSP fails to return from his current injury exile). Thus, he hasn’t really accomplished his goal of reaching the pinnacle of the sport. Not yet anyway.

Taking an interim fight in the unpredictable world of the UFC, where there is no such thing as a tune-up or keep-busy championship bout, creates a risk that he will never actually receive the opportunity to challenge for the true championship. Thus, the risk created by defending the interim belt outweighs the reward, in terms of building Condit’s legacy in the sport.

Second, if there is ever a time to face GSP, who is one of the best fighters on the planet, pound for pound, it is right after he returns from a major injury. GSP will have to deal with the dreaded cage rust when he returns. I’m not listening to any argument to the contrary.

There is no way that he will be as sharp in his first fight back as he was in his last bout. The issues caused by the time away from active training and actual fighting are compounded by the mental hurdle associated with getting over an ACL tear is no joke. It takes most athletes some reps in actual competition, even once fully healed and rehabilitated, to subconsciously believe that the knee is ready for game speed. I will be shocked, if GSP is any different.

GSP, therefore, should have holes in his game that might not otherwise be present, if Condit faces him at any other point in their respective careers. Why risk blowing that opportunity, just to take an interim fight?

The argument for taking an interim fight is also pretty straightforward. Any advantage that Condit has over GSP due to the champion’s injury-forced exile is tempered by the interim champion self-exiling himself for a long period of time.

Keep in mind that the longest layoff of Condit’s career is 269 days. If he fights GSP on November 1, he will break his personal inactive mark by two days, and there is no guarantee that the true champion will be ready by November 1. Any little setback in his rehabilitation or preparation could postpone the fight even further, which means cage rust will be just as big of a problem for Condit as it is GSP.

Think otherwise? Talk to Rashad Evans about hanging around and waiting for an opportunity, rather than remaining busy. He will quickly admit that long stretches away have affected his subsequent performances. Again, why would Condit be any different?

Equally relevant is the fact that the fight game is as much about earning a living as it is competition. Condit doesn’t get paid to sit on the sidelines. He gets paid when he fights. Does it make financial sense to wait until November or possibly later for his next payday? Remember, we are talking about a guy with a wife, baby and new mortgage.

I’m a firm believer that fighters need to maximize their earnings during their brief time in sport. All fighters have very limited shelf lives. The question of “what’s next” once their career reaches its expiration date is a daunting one for all but the wealthiest of fighters, particularly since the expiration date arrives at different times for different fighters. It is a date that is nearly impossible to predict. So, passing up lucrative paydays, even in the face of risking a potentially more lucrative one down the road with GSP, seems like financial suicide to me.

Equally important, however, is the mental aspect of opting to sit on the sidelines. Think about it for a minute. If Team Condit attempts to talk their man into waiting for GSP, I question whether that would create a little doubt in the back of his mind. After all, if he isn’t good enough to defeat whomever the UFC puts in front of him, what makes anyone think he is good enough to defeat the man who many believe to be the single best fighter in the world? Will that self doubt cause hesitation when he actually receives the opportunity to fight GSP?

I’m a firm believer that Condit should take an interim defense of the interim title, based on GSP’s protracted timetable. Not only will it help maximize his short-term earnings, it will also put him in the best possible position, in my opinion, to remain at the top of his game for when the opportunity to face GSP does finally arise.

What would you do, if you were advising “The Natural Born Killer”? Let me know in the comment section below.

PAY NO MIND TO THE RETIREMENT TALK

Nick Diaz announced after the loss to Condit that he was hanging up the vale tudo gloves. To quote Public Enemy, “don’t believe the hype.”

Diaz isn’t going anywhere. Not after that loss, anyway. His words inside the Octagon were those of a deeply frustrated fighter who believed that, once again, he was treated wrongly by the system. I’m not so sure that he will continue to hold that belief when he goes back and watches the tape of the fight.

For the record, I scored the fight 3-2 for Diaz, giving him the nod in rounds one, two and five. The first two rounds were easy to score, in my opinion, as were rounds three and four. The final round was a bear, and I’ll admit that I still go back and forth on that one.

On one hand, Condit definitely landed more in terms of striking volume and significant strikes. He also showed far better Octagon control by darting in and out, while Diaz continually and ineffectively chased him around.

On the other hand, the takedown followed by the back mount was the single most dominant position of the round for either fighter. Condit was in more danger of getting stopped in those moments than Diaz was at any point in the fight. Of course, Diaz didn’t actually come very close with any of his submission attempts, so there is a school of thought that says I shouldn’t give so much weight to the takedown and back mount. It is a completely subjective question, one that I actually don’t feel that strongly about. In fact, after re-watching the fight, I am actually starting to lean toward Condit for the final round.

Whatever your scoring philosophy, the bout was close enough that it wasn’t highway robbery for either man to drop the decision on Saturday night. Diaz should not feel as if he has been wronged by the establishment. He should instead ask himself why he was unable to cut off the cage when Condit was on his bicycle, or why he didn’t get off first when Condit came into range. It was a very un-Diaz-like performance, one that I chalk up to a bad night mixed with a virtuoso effort by Condit.

Diaz isn’t going anywhere, folks. Trust me on that one. In fact, I think he is probably just one win away from re-asserting himself as the number one contender. Dana White mentioned in a post-fight interview that Diaz versus Josh Koscheck would be an interesting next fight. I agree. I think that is an excellent way to shake out who stands behind Condit, if he opts to wait for GSP. If Condit decides to take an interim challenge, I think Diaz has a strong argument that he deserves a rematch.

Either way, my guess is that Nick Diaz will be back in action inside the Octagon before summertime.

Watch the UFC® 143 replay here