Author: By Michael DiSanto

A string of injuries and a bit of bad luck has nearly rendered Rashad Evans an afterthought in the collective minds of mixed martial arts fans as he prepares to headline UFC on FOX 2 this Saturday night.

Evans saw three opportunities to challenge for the UFC light heavyweight championship slip through his fingers due to injuries. Two of those opportunities were to come against reigning champion Jon Jones, a former teammate turned bitter rival.

Now fully healthy, Rashad Evans must pass one more test before finally securing his eagerly awaited bout with champion Jon Jones. That test comes in the form of undefeated, red hot prospect Phil Davis on January 28.

Davis is far from a tune-up bout for “Suga.” He may, indeed, be the most dangerous opponent that Evans has faced since losing the championship back in 2009. Davis might not have the same MMA credentials of Thiago Silva, Quinton Jackson, and Tito Ortiz. But he certainly does possess the one skill that many think is Evans’ kryptonite—elite wrestling.

Davis is, without a shadow of a doubt, the best wrestler that Evans has faced in his career to date. The four-time Division I All-American won an individual national championship in 2008 and finished in the top 10 nationally in each of his four years at Penn State. His collegiate record was 116-17. Evans also wrestled in the Big Ten sports conference, along with Davis, though he experienced far less success. In three years at Michigan State University, Evans racked up 48 wins in 82 attempts.

MMA isn’t wrestling. An amateur wrestling pedigree doesn’t always translate into elite takedown efficiency. Georges St-Pierre, who possesses some of the best takedowns and takedown defense in the sport, proved that point.

Nonetheless, the spread between Evans and Davis, in terms of pure wrestling ability, is enormous. If Davis is able to devolve the action into a wrestling match, which is precisely how Evans fought Jackson and Silva, then he is in a whole heap of trouble.

Why do I write those words? Phil Davis has never been taken down in a UFC bout.

Pause for a moment. Now, go back and read the preceding paragraph again.

Ok, that was overly dramatic. I know. I’ll quickly concede that Davis has never faced a highly decorated wrestler in the UFC. I’ll also concede that Evans has far superior takedowns to any of his previous opponents, and he is very adept at setting up those takedowns with strikes.

I don’t care. I don’t see any way for Evans to dominate, or even stalemate, the takedowns in this fight. He will not be able to take the action to the ground whenever he wants, unlike in just about all of his previous fights. That may seem like a major problem for Evans. I actually believe the opposite is true.

Evans was at his very best when he had complete confidence in his standup skills and chin. The results back up the statement. Dramatic knockout wins over Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin remain the best performances of his career. They also elevated him to the top of the sport, albeit for only a brief reign.

Sure, he got blasted out by Lyoto Machida after defeating Griffin, and he certainly fought Machida with all the standup bravado that he showed against Liddell and Griffin, but that can happen to anyone on any given Saturday in the UFC.

Since that loss, Evans has been a tentative, and dare I say somewhat boring, fighter. The Machida loss looked to erase any confidence he previously had in his ability to survive a power strike from a standup killer. His game plans, therefore, focused solely on quickly getting the fight to the ground and keeping it there at all costs.

Submissions and stoppages from ground strikes weren’t really part of the blueprint. Those actions require the attacker to take chances. Taking chances means risking an opponent escaping to his feet. Avoiding any scenario where that could happen was of paramount concern for Evans, once he scored a takedown.

I’m not surprising anyone by suggesting that his wins over Jackson and Silva were sleepers, rather than slobberknockers.

Evans’ win over Ortiz in his most recent bout was anything but a sleeper. Why? He didn’t respect Ortiz’s standup or his power. He knew for sure that he could take whatever Tito could dish out on the feet. The result speaks for itself—his first win inside the distance in two-and-a-half years.  

I firmly believe that Evans can take the same approach with Davis. “Mr. Wonderful” is far more athletic than Ortiz, but he poses no greater threat on the feet, in terms of strikes.

The former collegiate wrestling star remains a work in progress in MMA. He defeats opponents with his wrestling base and pure athleticism. But his gaps in skills make it tough for him to finish top-level opponents. I know the submission against Tim Boetsch was a thing of beauty, but Boetsch isn’t on Evans’ level.

Evans should come out and see if Davis has the guts to initiate the action. Davis enjoys solid height and reach advantages, but he has nothing on Evans in terms of speed and striking technique. If Evans can bait him into throwing a jab, which Davis does with a noticeable hitch, the former champion will able to slip to his right and step in with a ferocious overhand right, his money punch.

If Davis refuses to lead, Evans should circle until he has opening to attack from an angle. Davis won’t be able to effectively change levels and power through for a double-leg when Evans is attacking off of one of his shoulders, rather than square to his core. Davis is not an expert striker, nor is he overly comfortable on the feet, so he will retreat in the face of pressure.  

Liddell is one of the few mixed martial artists over the last several years who had the power and skill to land knockout strikes while retreating. Davis does not have that ability, which means Evans should really turn up the heat with his hands once his foe begins to move backward.

The pressure will cause Davis to do one of two things—cover up or desperately lunge for a takedown. Neither of those will cause Evans much agita. If Evans continues with a spirited attack, then a stoppage should soon follow.

I would not look to take Davis down, even if he opens the door by covering up. Evans has no idea if he will be able to control Mr. Wonderful on the ground. Why take the chance of a sweep and end up in the one position where Davis will have a major advantage—Evans on his back.

It probably goes without saying that Davis must get the fight to the ground in order to win. I believe that with all my being. His awkward strikes were somewhat effective in a few of his fights, but they won’t be against Evans, assuming the former champion rediscovered his standup swagger in the Ortiz fight.

Is this too much too soon for Davis? Will his otherworldly wrestling skills be enough to carry the day, or has he developed enough well-rounded skills to beat Evans in multiple positions?

Or, will Evans lock up what he so desperately covets—another shot at the title, which also has the fringe benefit of putting him in the cage with his bitter rival?

If forced to choose, my money would be on Rashad Evans. This guy really is the complete package. The only question mark hanging over his head are his chin and confidence. Neither should be a problem on the 28th. I think Phil Davis has tremendous potential. If he can get up the striking curve, the sky just might be the limit for this truly special athlete. I just don’t think that wrestling alone will be enough to get it done this time.

Prove me wrong, big fella.

Quick Facts:

Rashad Evans
•    32 years old
•    5’11, 205 lbs
•    74.5-inch reach
•    21-1-1 overall
•    4-1 in last 5 fights
•    8-1-1 in last 10 fights
•    4-1-1 against 5 current or former UFC champions
•    Former UFC light heavyweight champion
•    147-day reign as champion; no successful title defenses
•    Former heavyweight winner on The Ultimate Fighter 2
•    Fight of the Night – TKO2 over Tito Ortiz at UFC 133
•    Fight of the Night –TKO3 over Forrest Griffin to win UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 92
•    Knockout of the Night – KO2 over Chuck Liddell at UFC 88
•    Knockout of the Night – KO2 over Sean Salmon at UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon
•    Current layoff is 175 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 434 days

Phil Davis
•    27 yrs old
•    6’2, 205 lbs
•    79-inch reach
•    9-0 overall
•    Has never faced a current or former UFC or PRIDE champion
•    Submission of the Night – SUB2 over Tim Boetsch at UFC 123<br>•    Current layoff of 308 days is the longest of his career

IS HE NEXT?

Jim Miller is in the midst of tremendous UFC career. After 12 fights in the promotion, his record stands at an amazing 10-2. There aren’t many guys in any weight class that hold 10 wins through their first 12 trips to the Octagon.

With Frankie Edgar set to defend his title against Benson Henderson at UFC 144 on February 25, there is a big-time scrum going on to determine who is next in line. The ultra-deep lightweight division has no shortage of deserving challengers, with Nate Diaz, Clay Guida, Edson Barboza, Anthony Pettis, and Donald Cerrone just a few names that quickly come to mind. None of those guys have enjoyed the same recent success as Miller. Former champion Sean Sherk is another who could make a solid case, based on his career accomplishments. In fact, he might be the only one who can put together a case that trumps Miller, if one ignores the fact that Sherk has been on the sidelines for the past 16 months due to a run of injuries.

Assuming Edgar wins, Jose Aldo is the guy I’d like to see challenge for the belt. Edgar is a great matchup for him on paper, and the chance for a guy to make history (i.e., holding two belts at the same time) is always something that brings tremendous intrigue. If Aldo isn’t interested in moving up, then Miller is the logical next choice, in my opinion.

If Henderson wins, an immediate rematch is likely, but Edgar will likely drop back into the 155-pound pack if he suffers a one-sided loss. In that instance, Miller is at the top of my list for three reasons. First, Miller has earned the right based on his body of work in the UFC. Second, I don’t think Aldo matches up as well with Henderson, due to the size difference, so I don’t think the reigning featherweight champ would move up. Third, Henderson-Miller reminds me a lot of Henderson-Guida from a matchup perspective, which should make for a tremendous fight.

Should Miller be next in line? Tell me what you think in the comment section below.

MELVIN, MELVIN, MELVIN…

Friday’s bout between Melvin Guillard and Jim Miller went almost exactly as predicted. Guillard showed his vast superiority on the feet. But he was exposed, yet again, once the fight hit the ground.

The affable lightweight now has six career UFC losses. All six came via submission. All six were some form of choke. If that isn’t a telling statistic, then I don’t know what is.

Guillard is constantly referred to as one of the best, if not the best, athletes in the UFC. I fully agree with that notion, which makes it all the more frustrating to watch him lose by choke again and again. Imagine how good this guy would be, if he could address that gaping hole in his game. Guillard’s hands are as good as anyone in the division. His flying knees are at the top of the lightweight food chain. His physical strength probably rivals that of most welterweights. And he is a very good wrestler.

Yet, Guillard will never fulfill his amazing potential until he addresses his lack of submission defense. If I was in his corner, I’d have him take a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu sabbatical—nothing but submission defense for the next several months.

Most 60-fight veterans don’t have much room left for growth. They are so set in their ways that dramatic improvement isn’t really an option. Guillard is the exception to that norm. He is just now coming into his fighting prime. The growth he showed during his stint as a student at Greg Jackson’s gym was amazing. That suggests to me that he is still a sponge waiting to soak up more knowledge. For Guillard’s sake, I hope that knowledge is filled with submission defense.

NO ROOT CANALS FOR NEER

Josh “The Dentist” Neer earned his nickname because he reportedly left more than a few teeth on the canvas – none of them his own – during his amateur career. His professional career has been equally exciting. I don’t know if he has extracted any teeth from his opponents, but Neer has certainly engaged in slugfest after slugfest with some of the baddest dudes on the planet. That is why many people thought that his bout with Duane Ludwig, arguably the best technical striker in the welterweight division, would be a Fight of the Year candidate, though many thought Ludwig would be the one playing the role of dentist.

The bout was certainly fun while it lasted, but the explosive rock’em, sock’em robots war that everyone hoped for didn’t materialize because Neer opted to fight with his head, not his ego. Ludwig is the better striker; that much was obvious early on. He was basically landing crisp, hard shots at will. But this is mixed martial arts, not kickboxing or boxing, so Neer took Ludwig to the place where he often struggles – on the ground.

It only took Neer a matter of seconds to submit Ludwig once the action hit the floor. The result should serve as a reminder that this guy is far more than just a slugger. Neer is a very skilled mixed martial artist. He now owns six consecutive wins, the last two coming in the UFC.

Neer has always excelled against the middle tier. The question is whether he can compete with the true cream of the welterweight crop. A win over Ludwig is a good step in that direction.

POSSIBLY THE BEST BARRY, BUT IS IT THE BEST WEIGHT CLASS?

363 days since last winning in the Octagon, Pat Barry finally righted the ship with a savage first round knockout win over Christian Morecraft. The fight was typical Barry, with good back-and-forth action before a sudden end.

This time, however, “HD” showed a vastly improved ground game. The much bigger, heavier Morecraft twice got him to the ground. Barry, who is routinely criticized for having a limited ground game, worked back to his feet both times.

The second trip to the canvas saw Morecraft mount his foe and then sink what appeared to be a very deep arm bar. Barry didn’t panic. He instead showed high-level submission defense by working his way out of the arm bar and back to his feet.

Moments later, Barry showed his elite striking by slipping a wild right hand and countering with a perfectly placed leaping left hook. The follow-up punches were just icing on the cake.

That was probably the most well rounded performance of Barry’s UFC career, one that proves he is working hard to shore up the shortcomings in his game. I firmly believe that he will continue to get better as a fighter. But the one thing he cannot overcome is his height.

Mark Hunt is listed as the shortest heavyweight in the UFC at 5’10 to Barry’s 5’11. But I highly doubt that Barry is actually taller than Hunt. I actually think the opposite might be true. Whatever the case, he is extremely vertically challenged for a UFC heavyweight.

I often wonder how Barry would perform if he found a way to cut to light heavy. I know he is sick of hearing that. But I cannot help but wonder.  And I can’t help but wonder why he hasn’t hired a diet guru to find out for himself.

Maybe he just loves being David each and every time he fights, because the average heavyweight certainly looks like Goliath every time Barry steps into the Octagon.

WHERE DOES HE RANK?

I wrote in my breakdown of the UFC 142 main event between Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes that “Aldo can’t just beat Mendes if he wants to reinsert himself into the pound-for-pound discussions. He needs to destroy him…”

Mission accomplished. Aldo made minced meat out of a man who many believed had the perfect set of skills to dethrone the first UFC featherweight champion. And he made it look easy – very easy.

People have to start giving Aldo credit as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, if not THE best.  His WEC/UFC resume is ridiculous. The only person to make him seem even remotely human in the last six years was Mark Hominick. Aldo had lots of pre-fight issues that arguably contributed to that performance. But even if we disregard those issues, everyone is entitled to a bad night now and then. Anderson Silva came much closer to losing to Chael Sonnen than Aldo did against Hominick. Georges St-Pierre suffered a knockout loss during Aldo’s undefeated run. So I don’t want to hear any of this Mark Hominick stuff when it comes to Aldo’s pound-for-pound claim.

I’ll be the first to say it. Aldo deserves to stand above Jon Jones in the pound-for-pound debate. That isn’t a knock on Jones, who had the most impressive 2011 of anyone in the sport. But he only recently began facing the best of the best. Aldo has been doing that for several years, and pound-for-pound supremacy is about sustained, proven greatness. Jones is on his way. Aldo is already there.

Where Jones stands in the mythical pound-for-pound debate is a matter of opinion. I still firmly lean toward Silva at the top, but I’d put Aldo on par with GSP as vying for the second position. Jones and then Frankie Edgar finish off my top five.

Agree? Disagree? State your case in the comment section below. I’ll be reading, as always.

“THE PHENOM” IS MAKING A COMPELLING CASE

Vitor Belfort looked incredible in his first-round submission win over Anthony Johnson. The former champion took his share of lumps, including a vicious diving punch on the ground. But his overall skill proved to be too much for the light heavyweight version of Johnson. Ok, he wasn’t actually a light heavy, but he didn’t make the 186-pound limit, as everyone already knows.

The win was the second straight annihilation win for Belfort after suffering the dramatic front kick loss to Silva. Belfort will now set his sights on Wanderlei Silva after the pair coach opposite each other on “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil,” which starts filming shortly. If he obliterates Silva, like he did Johnson and Yoshihiro Akiyama, then there is little doubt that he deserves a rematch with Anderson Silva.

Say what you will about the knockout loss to “The Spider”; it was a single strike loss. I’ve written about that type of loss many times before. They do nothing to prove that one man is superior to the other. All they do is prove that one man got caught.

Silva did not dominate Belfort when he knocked him out. He landed a single strike. Had Belfort’s flying left hand found its mark when Silva’s back hit the ground, the result could have easily been different. That is why a rematch between the two is, in my opinion, the biggest fight available in the middleweight division.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Belfort must first get past Wanderlei without getting injured. Anderson must heal and rehabilitate his ailing shoulder. Then, Anderson must get past the winner of Chael Sonnen versus Mark Munoz. I guarantee you that he hopes Munoz wins because Sonnen came within two minutes of dethroning the champion. So, it is far from a lock that Anderson will defeat the winner of Sonnen-Munoz.

If he does, I think we may just pay witness to the biggest fight in the history of the middleweight division.

“RUMBLE” GETS COSTLY LESSON

Let’s quickly deal with business first. According to a post-fight interview with UFC President Dana White on FUEL TV, Johnson was likely going to be released from his UFC contract following the loss to Belfort, with White citing a ‘three strikes and you’re out’ policy. Johnson missed weight at UFC 76, UFC 104 and now UFC 142. At some point, this guy has to get it right on the scales. We don’t see this sort of issue with other top fighters. Johnson was completely unprofessional with the way he handled his move to middleweight. I don’t care what he points to as the reason. He fought at 170 pounds not long ago. Yet, he missed the middleweight limit? Crazy. Unfathomable. Inexcusable.  He needs to take a hard look at himself and everyone around him because these sorts of repeated weight issues are unprecedented in the UFC, particularly when moving UP, not down, in weight.

 Now, to the good part. I thought Johnson looked tremendous at middleweight (or junior light heavyweight), despite the loss to Belfort. He appeared to increase his speed and explosiveness with the extra weight, just like I predicted.  He also appeared to match Belfort’s strength, which shocked me. If not for a couple of quick stand-ups, Johnson may have sent Belfort to the filming of TUF with a shocking (in my opinion) loss on his record. He was certainly winning the round before getting caught in a well executed rear naked choke. All that suggests to me that middleweight is the perfect division for this guy.

I hope Johnson hires a weight cutting guru or dietician and figures out this whole scale thing. It is a tragedy that this guy is wasting his tremendous potential, particularly now that he is entering the prime of his fighting career, by battling the scale, rather than battling for championships. I think the latter is a real possibility if he can figure out the former.

PALHARES SHOWS THE BEAUTIFUL VIOLENCE OF BRAZILIAN JIU-JITSU

Rousimar Palhares is one scary ground fighter. The vertically challenged middleweight looks like a cartoon character with his muscular build. But those muscles are far from beach muscles. They are evidence of his ridiculous physical strength. Mix that with his otherworldly BJJ, and you have one of the most intimidating ground fighters in all of mixed martial arts. “Toquinho” may have rudimentary standup, but I can guarantee you that nobody in the middleweight division wants any part of his ground game – nobody. That includes pound-for-pound kingpin Anderson Silva.

DON’T EVISCERATE YAMASAKI JUST YET

Mario Yamasaki got it wrong on Saturday night. We all know that. But before you eviscerate the referee, ask yourself whether you have ever made a mistake at your job. I know I certainly have. You have, too.

Yamasaki’s mistake wasn’t borne from incompetence. He thought Erik Silva was illegally striking the back of Carlo Prater’s head, so he disqualified him in the interest of promoting fighter safety. That deserves praise, not condemnation.

The danger of repeatedly striking someone in the back of the head is well documented. As a lifelong boxing fan, I will never forget watching Nigel Benn hit Gerald McClellan in the back of the head again and again in their 1995 title fight. We’ll never know for sure, but the illegal blows may have been the catalyst that forever changed McClellan’s life. Kudos to Yamasaki for doing what the referee in London didn’t have the courage to do back in 1995.

Of course, the replay showed that Silva landed legal blows, so he was wrongfully disqualified. But there was nothing Yamasaki could do about his decision after watching the replay. The UFC, unlike other professional sports, does not provide for replay to change a referee’s decision. The result highlights the need for instant replay in MMA. Other major sports take advantage of technology within prescribed limited. Our sport should do the same.

At the end of the day, though, Yamasaki wrongfully disqualifying Silva doesn’t really matter. The Brazilian bomber has the ability to appeal the loss, which may result in a reversal of the outcome. Dana White stepped up big time and paid Silva his full purse – show money and win bonus – so he wasn’t personally impacted at all by the loss. I’m also certain that he will be treated, when considered for future UFC bookings, as if he won the bout. As far as I’m concerned, this is a no-harm, no-foul situation.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Edson Barboza’s spinning wheel kick knockout over Terry Etim was the most impressive final round knockout that I may have ever witnessed in the UFC. Maybe I will think of something that compares in the coming days, but for now, I’m left in pure awe of the moment. By the way, it was the first ever spinning wheel kick knockout in UFC history. It won Knockout of the Night. I’m thinking it should win Knockout of the Decade. Not to anoint myself matchmaker, but I would LOVE to see a bout between Barboza and Donald Cerrone. That matchup could easily produce Fight of the Year fireworks.

PYLE RIGHTS THE SHIP; IS THERE TIME?

Five months after getting blasted by Rory MacDonald in less than four minutes, Mike Pyle returned to form with a dominant performance against Ricardo Funch. Pyle is a grizzled veteran of the sport, having competed all over the world since making his professional debut against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson way back on November 13, 1999. Pyle’s UFC success – five wins in eight bouts – is certainly noteworthy. The problem is he has yet to defeat an actual contender inside the Octagon. It remains to be seen whether he is a division gatekeeper or a legitimate contender. At 36 years old, the time for him to make a run is now.   

BRAZIL ALMOST RUNS THE TABLE

Brazil is the home of mixed martial arts. It was fitting, therefore, that each of the 10 fights involved at least one Brazilian. Two bouts pitted Brazilian versus Brazilian. Let’s remove those two bouts from the analysis, since it was guaranteed that a Brazilian would win the matchup. That leaves us with eight. UFC 134 also involved eight bouts where Brazilians fought “others.” The locals went 7-1 in both situations. I know this isn’t country versus country, but 14-2 is nothing to sneeze at. Are Brazilians, on average, the best mixed martial artists in the world? They are making one heck of an argument.

Six months ago, a debate raged among followers of the UFC lightweight division. Who was the rightful number one contender – Melvin Guillard or Jim Miller?

Guillard was in the midst of a five-fight winning streak, including back-to-back knockout wins over Evan Dunham and Shane Roller. Miller was even better. He was in the midst of a seven-fight winning streak. Both men desperately wanted to secure their first shot at UFC gold.

It wasn’t to be. Both suffered bad losses last year to temporarily derail their title hopes. Guillard was submitted in 47 seconds by Joe Lauzon. Miller was throttled by Benson Henderson over three lopsided rounds.

The pair will face off on Friday night with the hope of rebuilding their argument for top contender status.

How many times have I broken down a fight based on one man keeping the action standing versus the other getting it to the ground? Each of my last three breakdowns basically came down to that one simple point. Let’s make it four in a row.

Melvin Guillard is a lights-out striker with good wrestling and woefully lacking submission defense. Harsh words, I know. Well, try this on for size – all five of Guillard’s UFC losses have come by way of submission. All but one of his career losses have also come by submission. The criticism of his submission defense doesn’t seem so aggressive now, does it?

Jim Miller is a former Division I collegiate wrestler with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Takedowns, ground control and transition jiu-jitsu are his specialty. His standup, while serviceable, is light years behind Guillard.

Like I said, this fight is all about whether it remains standing or heads to the ground.

Conventional wisdom suggests that explosive strikers are typically better served reacting, rather than leading, when the goal is to keep the fight on the feet at all costs. That is true because it is easier for a wrestler to shoot off of a lead strike than to slip a counter and change levels. Guillard will certainly look to counter on Friday night, but he will try to goad his opponent into attacking by pot-shotting him from the outside with blazing quick jabs, lead right hands, and one-two combinations.

Guillard’s biggest gift is his athleticism. He bounces around on extremely nimble feet at a distance that keeps him out of harm’s way. He can basically land the jab at will against all but the very best strikers, when fighting on the outside like that. The New Orleans’ native is also very good at stepping in with a lead right before bouncing back out to a safe distance.

The “Young Assassin” can fight Miller like that all night long without really risking anything. But Guillard doesn’t like to fight with conservative tactics. He instead loves to thrill the crowd with memorable knockouts. As he gets into a rhythm pot-shotting from the outside, he will start to stay in the pocket longer and longer, putting together three- and four-punch combinations in search of a knockout win.

Guillard has to be careful when he is in the pocket not to get tangled up. Miller has good, but not necessarily great, takedowns. His foe has excellent takedown defense. Yet, Guillard tends to get himself into major trouble when defending in the clinch or along the fence. Miller is very good at getting the fight to the ground in both of those positions because he has great technique and good physical strength.

Guillard will try to sap some of that strength by focusing a good bit of his standup attack at Miller’ torso. He will risk stepping into a knee strike or a clinch, which are two of the better counters to body punching in MMA, in order to punish the body.  Anyone doubting the effectiveness of Guillard’s body attacks should review his wins over Gabe Ruediger at UFC 63 and Waylon Lowe at UFC 114.  The former was one of the best body shots in Octagon history. The latter was just downright nasty.

If he can land a series of body shots on Miller, they will have a debilitating effect on the New Jersey native, particularly in the second and third rounds. As Miller’s power meter drains, his ability to get the fight to the ground will reduce, which means Guillard will be able to open up more and more on the feet.  All that spells late-round stoppage.

Scoring such a win requires patience. Guillard has only recently begun to demonstrate anything close to resembling patience during his fights. I expect to see that evolution continue on Friday night.

Patience is extremely important for Guillard in this fight because he is fighting a guy with an iron jaw. Miller has never been stopped, whether by submission or knockout, in his 23-fight professional career. It seems unlikely that Guillard will score a knockout in the first round, absent landing a perfectly placed punch that his foe does not see. Thus, patience will be the word of the day.

Miller also needs to remain patient in this fight. Guillard should give him a few opportunities to take the fight to the ground by overextending with power punches or circling too close to the cage. But he has to wait for those opportunities to arise. If Miller tries to force the action by aggressively attacking, Guillard will effortlessly pepper him with counter strikes.

If Miller instead sits back and forces Guillard to lead the action, it increases the odds that he will be able to duck under a strike and execute a takedown. Forcing Guillard to lead also increases the odds of the pair getting tangled up when Miller shoots for a takedown or fires his own counters. Either way, Miller has to get this fight on the ground early and often, if he wants to win, even if that means pulling guard from the clinch.

What should Miller do once the fight hits the ground? Did I mention that all five of Guillard’s UFC losses have come by way of submission?

Miller’s ground attack should start with strikes. The goal isn’t to pound Guillard into defeat. The goal is to make it appealing for Guillard to give up his back. He doesn’t like getting punched in the face on the ground. Not a criticism. Nobody likes it. But he tends to give up his back quickly as a method of defense.

The problem, however, is Guillard giving up his back to Miller is as conclusive as a marine biologist sticking his head into the mouth of a living great white shark when checking for tonsillitis. The end is certain.

Prediction time. How will this fight unfold? Wrestlers with strong BJJ skills tend to defeat strikers with big gaps in their submission defense more often than not.

Not this time.

I am not sure why, but I’m leaning toward Guillard in this one. No real X and O reason why. I just have a feeling.

QUICK FACTS:

Melvin Guillard
•    28 years old
•    5’9, 155 lbs
•    46-10-3, 1 NC overall
•    4-1 in last 5
•    8-2 in last 10
•     70% of UFC wins TKO/KO
•    30% of UFC wins by decision
•    Has never submitted a UFC opponent
•    All five UFC losses by submission
•    Knockout of the Night – KO1 over Dennis Siver at UFC 86; TKO1 over Evan Dunham at UFC: Fight for Troops 2
•    Current layoff is 104 days
•    Longest layoff of UFC career is 268 days

Jim Miller
•    28 years old
•    5’8, 155 lbs
•    20-3 overall
•    4-1 in last 5
•    8-2 in last 10
•    33.3% of UFC wins by KO/TKO
•    22.2% of UFC wins by submission
•    44.5% of UFC wins by decision
•    Has never been stopped in his professional career
•    Submission of the Night – SUB3 over David Baron at UFC 89; SUB1 over Charles Oliveira at UFC 124
•    Fight of the Night – UD3 over Matt Wiman at UFC: Fight for the Troops
•    Current layoff is 159 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 172 days

Jose Aldo has something to prove on Saturday night.

That got your attention, didn’t it? Follow along for a couple of paragraphs before getting all crazy in the comment section, because the reigning UFC featherweight champion certainly does have something to prove in my honest opinion.

Anderson Silva and Georges St-Pierre are universally regarded as the top two fighters in the world, pound for pound. Yet, both are currently sidelined by injuries that will keep them out of action for a while and may or may not have a lasting impact on their respective abilities moving forward.

For the first time in years, there is finally a crack in the pound-for-pound door. Two men instantly come to mind when thinking about the next in line behind Silva and GSP—Jon Jones and Jose Aldo.  Jones had such an amazing 2011 that many are ready to anoint him on par with the two reigning pound-for-pound kingpins. But the fact of the matter is that Jones has only recently entered the world of the elite. In 2010, Jones wasn’t even a footnote in the pound-for-pound debate.

Don’t get me wrong. Jones has always been a fighter with seemingly limitless potential. I was calling this guy out as a future champion as early as his 2009 win over Stephan Bonnar. But nobody, other than maybe Jones’ immediate family, was referring to him in pound-for-pound terms until he won the championship from Mauricio “Shogun” Rua last March.

Jose Aldo, on the other hand, has been part of the discussion since at least the middle part of 2010. Aside from a gut-check win over Mark Hominick last April, the Brazilian bomber has seemed largely invincible during his current 13-fight, five-plus-year winning streak. Go back and check out his wins over Cub Swanson, Mike Brown, Urijah Faber, Manny Gamburyan and Kenny Florian. You’ll understand what I’m talking about. This guy is scary good—absolutely scary.

The problem for Aldo is that Jones’ 2011 was one of the best years that we’ve seen in the UFC in a long, long time. And we all know that mixed martial arts is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport. Aldo’s 2011 was good, but not that good.

Nonetheless, Aldo’s body of work over the past five years suggests that he is more deserving of pound-for-pound glory than his younger, larger fellow champion. None of that matters, though, if he cannot put on a stellar performance on Saturday night against undefeated challenger Chad Mendes.

Aldo can’t just beat Mendes if he wants to reinsert himself into the pound-for-pound discussions. He needs to destroy him, which is exponentially easier said than done.

Many believe that Mendes is the best wrestler that Aldo has ever faced. That is a gigantic statement considering the fact that Aldo already owns a lopsided win over Faber, a very successful collegiate wrestler in his own right. And he made it look like just another day at the office.  

The question is whether he can do the same thing to Faber’s Alpha Male teammate on Saturday night. The answer all depends on whether Aldo can stop the takedown. If so, the champion will undress his opponent with a violent array of strikes. In fact, it will probably seem more like target practice than a fight, if the action remains standing.

But that is a big IF. Remember, we are talking about the 2008 Pac-10 Wrestler of the Year. That means he is no joke when it comes to putting opponents on their backside with takedowns and slams.  

More on that in a minute.

If Aldo wants to stop the takedown, he should go right back to the same game plan he used against Faber, which means dishing out a heavy dose of kicks.

Aldo is a master at using kicks to both control the distance and exact damage. He knew that he needed to avoid the takedown against Faber in order to maximize his chances at defeating the former collegiate wrestling star. That same logic applies against Mendes. Thus, Aldo should put on the same clinic on how to control the distance with lightning fast leg and body kicks.

Aldo’s lower body attack was so effective against Faber that he actually scored multiple knockdowns from leg kicks, something rarely seen at the highest level of MMA. There is no reason to believe that he cannot do the same thing against Mendes for two reasons.

First, Aldo delivers his kicks with such insane speed that they are unbelievably difficult to time and catch. Second, if Mendes drops his hands in an unsuccessful attempt to catch an Aldo kick, he opens the door for a one-punch knockout loss.

Not only is Aldo the best puncher in the division; he is also the best at feinting with a kick and then unleashing a nuclear right hand, something that will always be in the back of Mendes’ mind throughout the fight.

That isn’t to suggest that Mendes can’t take the fight to the ground. I actually think quite the opposite is true. Mendes is eons better than Hominick in the takedown arena. Yet, the Canadian scored multiple takedowns in his April bout against Aldo. He was able to succeed where others failed because of his willingness to stand in the pocket and trade with the champion.

Hominick is an expert striker in his own right, so standing and trading with Aldo wasn’t a crazy idea. It is the equivalent of single-night career suicide for Mendes. Yet, that is basically what he needs to do, if he wants to get the fight to the ground. Otherwise, Aldo will shuck his takedown attempts, just like he did against Faber and Brown.

The remainder of Aldo’s game plan will be the same as every other fight—stand and bang.  This guy has a thirst for thrilling the crowd with masterful displays that harken back to the gladiatorial days of Ancient Rome. He quenches his thirst with a variety of explosive strikes, including straight right hands, left hooks, leg kicks, high kicks and flying knees.  Personal safety is an afterthought, because Aldo is the type of fighter who believes that the best defense is non-stop offense.

Aldo’s offense-first mindset should actually open the door for takedowns, assuming Mendes is smart enough to keep his hands up and either walk through the initial barrage of kicks (ouch) or check them en route to a quick, explosive double-leg takedown attempt.

Keep in mind that I’m not talking about a haphazard shot. I’m talking about Brock Lesnar or Josh Koscheck freight-train-style shots. Mendes has to accept that the only way he is winning this fight, absent a lucky strike, is by taking the fight to the ground. Thus, he must change levels and explode with every part of his being each time the opportunity presents itself. He cannot worry about eating a flying knee. He cannot worry about eating an uppercut. He has to completely commit to the takedown attempt.

If Mendes fights with that sort of confidence in his own wrestling ability, then this fight gets very interesting very quickly. Conventional wisdom is that great wrestling defeats great striking more often than not. Why? Simple. A great wrestler can dictate where the fight unfolds.  A great striker cannot, unless he also happens to have great takedown defense.

Aldo has very good takedown defense, but it is predicated as much on hesitation from his opponents due to the fear of eating a fight-ending strike as it is his ability to drop quickly and effectively sprawl. If Mendes eliminates hesitation from the equation and makes sure he both sets up his takedowns and shoots from an appropriate distance, then I don’t see any reason why he won’t get the action to the ground. Again, that is far easier said than done, but let’s assume that he will be successful in scoring at least one takedown in Rio de Janeiro.  
    
Once on the ground, Mendes needs to work cautiously aggressive ground and pound.  Aldo is a black belt in BJJ and would almost certainly outpoint, or possibly even submit, Mendes in a submission grappling contest that allowed or required a gi.  But this is MMA, and there is neither a gi nor a prohibition on strikes, which changes everything.  Thus, any perceived superiority in Aldo’s practical ground skills are largely a myth in the face of Mendes’ ground-and-pound attack. 

A healthy diet of pounding and slicing elbows would be my assault of choice.  By throwing elbows, even those that are thrown with real shoulder turn, which helps guarantee maximum force, don’t expose an attacker to triangles and armbars the way that punches do.  In addition, elbows tend to exact more damage when properly thrown because there is no padding, which means a higher likelihood of fight-ending cuts or, possibly, a true knockout.
   
A healthy diet of elbows is also a great way to grind down an opponent.  If he can tire Aldo during the first three rounds, then takedowns will become close to automatic in the championship rounds, which is where Mendes needs to bring the fight, if he wants to maximize his odds of winning. 

QUICK FACTS

Jose Aldo
•    25 years old
•    5’7, 145 lbs
•    70-inch reach
•    20-1 overall
•    13-fight winning streak
•    Last loss November 26, 2005
•    70.0% of wins by KO/TKO/submission due to strikes
•    5.0% of wins by submission
•    25.0% of wins by judges’ decision
•    Lone career loss by submission
•    3 of 8 WEC fights won Knockout of the Night
•    Fight of the Night in UFC debut against Hominick
•    Two consecutive successful defenses of UFC title
•    Current layoff is 95 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 347 days

Chad Mendes
•    26 years old
•    5’6, 145 lbs
•    66-inch reach
•    11-0 professional record
•    18.2% of wins by KO/TKO
•    18.2% of wins by submission
•    63.6% of wins judges’ decision
•    First title challenge
•    First fight against a current or former champion
•    Current layoff is 161 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 182 days
 

Anthony Johnson is a career welterweight who is tired of the massive self-deprivation required in order to make the division’s 170-pound weight limit. “Rumble” often walks around at over 200 pounds, so in order to compete, that means that more often than not, his camps are focused on shedding weight, rather than properly preparing for a fight from technique and game growth perspectives.

The weight cut was such a problem that Johnson twice, in ten UFC bouts, missed weight. He was six and one-half pounds over for his fight against Rich Clementi back in 2007, tipping the scale at 177.5 pounds, rather than the allowed 171 pounds for non-title welterweight affairs. Two years later, he missed by five pounds against Yoshiyuki Yoshida.

Despite hitting the mark for the past three fights, Johnson has finally had enough. He believes that, at 27 years old, he has simply outgrown the welterweight division. Thus, he is moving to middleweight for the first time on Saturday night at UFC 142. Johnson will still be cutting weight, but not like when he competes at 170 pounds.

There is little doubt that Johnson will be stronger and more explosive at middleweight. He likely will have better cardio and generally feel better from not having to shed an additional 15 pounds. Yet, nobody knows whether all that will result in a better fighter. He might be better in the literal sense, but the question is whether Anthony Johnson 2.0 will perform better against middleweights than Anthony Johnson 1.0 did against welterweights.

Rather than dip his toe into the middleweight water in search of an answer to that question, Johnson is diving in head first into a rip tide without any sort of a life vest because first up at middleweight is none other than former heavyweight tournament winner and former light heavy champ Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort.

Belfort is one of the most feared strikers in all of mixed martial arts. The Brazilian debuted in the UFC back on February 7, 1997, when he was only 19 years old. He won the UFC 12 Heavyweight Tournament that night by knocking out Tra Telligman and Scott Ferrozzo in a combined two minutes.

Fast-forward 15 years. Belfort is now a 34-year-old former champion who is looking to conquer his third weight class. The difference, of course, is that Belfort has moved down in weight over the years, not up.  He has also been competing in the middleweight division since July 19, 2008, so there are no question marks over how his body will perform at 185 pounds. In fact, Belfort’s volume of work below 205 pounds suggests that this is his best weight class.

So suffice to say that Belfort will be the biggest, strongest, most accomplished opponent that Johnson has ever faced.

It only adds to the intrigue that Johnson will be fighting one of the most amped up and focused Vitor Belforts that the world has ever seen, since he is fighting in his native Brazil for the first time since annihilating Wanderlei Silva at UFC Brazil way back on October 16, 1998. And it is a prelude fight to Belfort assuming a coaching role opposite Silva on “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” – the first time that the UFC’s hit reality show will film a season outside of the US. Taping starts shortly after UFC 142.

Welcome to the middleweight division, Anthony Johnson.

On paper, this seems like an insurmountable task for “Rumble” because he doesn’t appear to enjoy an advantage in any area of the fight. Belfort is the better striker. He is the superior grappler. He is more experienced and accomplished. According to individuals who have trained with both, he is also the stronger, faster fighter.

The only area where Johnson may enjoy a slight edge is in his cardio. Neither man will be confused with the Energizer Bunny any time soon, but Belfort’s cardio has been notoriously bad over the years. Johnson also appears to tire quickly in fights, but he has enjoyed much more success in fights lasting the distance than Belfort. The American is undefeated in those bouts, whereas Belfort has won less than half of his.

None of that really matters, though. Why? Because fights don’t compete on paper. No fighter is perfect. Everyone makes mistakes. One mistake can lead to an instant loss thanks to a perfectly placed strike or an inescapable submission hold. That is what makes MMA such a great sport.

If Belfort is foolish enough to drop his hands, Johnson has more than enough power in his overhand right and right high kick to abruptly turn out the lights. “Rumble” scored knockouts in six of his last seven victories. None of those knockout victims had Belfort-like resumes. Yet, there is no denying that the reality of competing with four-ounce gloves and uncovered shins is that anyone can get knocked out on any given night in the UFC.

If the former champion lets his focus lapse, Johnson has the wrestling chops to take the fight to the ground. Belfort may be a vastly superior grappler, but he has a terrible habit of resting in his guard, rather than working his transition jiu-jitsu or quickly scrambling back to his feet. That opens the door for Johnson to score a fight-altering cut, work some cardio-sapping ground and pound, or just score points on the judges’ cards for spending time on top.

One mistake. That is all it takes. Belfort is acutely aware of that fact after his knockout loss to Anderson Silva just about one year ago. He failed to properly identify a front kick to the face, and he found himself waking up moments later with his first taste of middleweight defeat. It can happen again on Saturday night, if he isn’t sharp.

But that isn’t the only way for Johnson to win. He can also take advantage of Belfort’s tendency to move backward and pose, rather than circling and striking, in the face of controlled pressure. Johnson can initiate that tendency by slowly approaching with his hands up ready to punch. Belfort will oblige by taking equally slows steps backward, coiled and ready to counter.

Johnson should not fire a haphazard strike during his approach, otherwise it is lights out. He should, instead, just come forward with confident, yet measured, steps with his hands held high. Belfort will continue backing up until he nears the cage, at which point, he will either circle out to his right or stand his ground and initiate an exchange.

Johnson should anticipate that and either shoot for a takedown when Belfort is within a step of the cage or step to his own left and fire his right hand. The former is the best way to get Belfort to clinch, rather than effectively sprawl. The latter is the best way to avoid a counter left hand, while still creating an opening to step inside and initiate a clinch himself.

Belfort is an expert clinch fighter. But his first instinct will be to defend the takedown, rather than turn his opponent. That will create an opening for Johnson to drop his weight and secure a good position smothering Belfort against the cage. He will need to keep working for takedowns and mix in some dirty boxing and knees to avoid a referee restart, but he should focus first and foremost at maintaining the outside position for as long as the referee will allow it. Not only will this score points for Octagon control on the judges’ cards; it will also start to sap Belfort of his explosiveness as he begins to use up his precious cardio defending in the clinch.

If there is a restart or the period comes to a close, Johnson should go right back to that game plan when the action gets back underway. Belfort’s counterstriking style is so deeply ingrained into his DNA that I would be absolutely shocked to see him react any differently than walking backward, if Johnson uses cautious aggression, as outlined above.  The sequence should play itself out again and again, just like it did in Belfort’s third fight with Randy Couture and his bout with Tito Ortiz.

As Belfort’s cardio begins to betray him, Johnson can mix in aggressive takedown attempts and combination striking, rather than clinching once his foe nears the cage. Belfort’s extremely high percentage of fast twitch muscle fiber means that his explosive speed and power will decrease proportionately with his cardio. That is evidenced by the fact that he has never scored a knockout or a submission win in the third round. Not once in his illustrious career. Thus, Johnson can more freely open up his offensive game once the final round arrives.

Belfort, on the other hand, won’t likely enter the cage with much of a game plan. I’m sure his coaches will have him fully prepared with an excellent game plan designed to take advantage of Johnson’s own technical flaws. That plan will undoubtedly include Belfort taking the offensive early in the fight. He is an absolute beast in sparring when he fights aggressively, rather than always countering.

Yet, all that will go out the window, once the fight is underway. It always does with Belfort. He will instead stand and wait. He will retreat and wait. He will circle and wait. All the while, he will be waiting for Johnson to attack so that he can counter. Belfort won’t have a counter in mind. He counters by instinct. Years of training have made his response to incoming fire instinctual.

It might be a bombing left hand, followed by a series of rights and lefts thrown in machine-gun fashion. It might be a flying knee, followed by that same series of rights and lefts. It might be all sorts of things. But what it won’t be is a single, haphazard strike. That isn’t how Belfort gets down. And that won’t be how he responds when he sees an opening on Saturday night. It will be all-out aggression, which almost always results in an opponent ending up on the canvas. I don’t think Saturday will end any differently.

Again, on paper, it seems like this will be an exceedingly difficult challenge for Johnson, one that he likely won’t overcome. Then again, fights only unfold on paper in the minds of writers. I’m quite sure Anthony Johnson couldn’t care less about what I write in this breakdown because he is coming to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to win. Let’s see if he can pull it off.

QUICK FACTS

Vitor Belfort
•    20-9 overall
•    34 years old
•    6’0, 185 lbs
•    74-inch reach
•    4-1, 4 KOs at 195 lbs or less
•    4-1 in last 5 fights
•    7-3 in last 10
•    All 9 UFC wins inside the distance (8 by KO/TKO and 1 by SUB)
•    70% of career wins by KO/TKO
•    10% of career wins by SUB
•    20% of career wins by decision
•    Former UFC light heavyweight champion
•    Former UFC heavyweight tournament champion
•    Knockout of the Night winner in two of last three fights (Akiyama and Franklin)
•    Current layoff is 161 days
•    Longest layoff of his career is 504 days

Anthony Johnson
•    10-3 overall
•    27 years old
•    6’2, 185 lbs
•    78-inch reach
•    4-1 in last 5
•    7-3 in last 10
•    70% of career wins by KO/TKO
•    30% of career wins by decision
•    No wins by SUB
•    3-0 in fights that have lasted the distance
•    Fight of the Night winner in loss to Josh Koscheck
•    Knockout of the night winner twice (Brenneman and Burns)
•    Current layoff is 105 days
•    Longest layoff of his career is 490 days