Author: By Michael DiSanto

Brock Lesnar is a unique athlete, the once-in-a-generation type.

That may read like hyperbole to some, but consider facts. Lesnar was a four-time All-American collegiate wrestler—twice at Bismarck State College and twice at the University of Minnesota. He won national championships at both schools and ended his collegiate wrestling career with a 106-5 record.

The gargantuan heavyweight then spent the next three-plus years of his life accumulating millions of dollars from playing a starring role in the world’s most popular male soap opera—World Wrestling Entertainment. He had to maintain his sculpted, 270- to 290-lb frame for the audience, while also learning crazy acrobatic sequences that were part of his stuntman-like performances. Remember, though, that his time in the WWE included no actual athletic competition. It was pure acting—albeit physically demanding and, oftentimes, physically deteriorating acting, but acting nonetheless.

Then, after his three-year competitive hiatus, Lesnar decided that he wanted to play professional football. No, not Arena League ball. Not the XFL. Not NFL Europa. And certainly not the semi-pro version that some bar room heroes play on weekends. He wanted to play defensive tackle in the National Football League. Sure, he had elite NFL size, strength and speed for his position. Lesnar’s 40-yard dash time was reportedly 4.7 seconds. That would have ranked first among defensive tackles at the 2011 NFL Combine. But the guy hadn’t played a down of football since high school. Shockingly, he earned playing time in a couple of preseason games and was a late cut with the Minnesota Vikings.

With his football stint over, Lesnar turned his attention to mixed martial arts. Lots of accomplished collegiate wrestlers do the same thing, so it was a natural progression in his athletic life. Yet, his foray into the sport was anything but normal.

Lesnar fought just one time before signing a contract with the world’s biggest and most competitive MMA promotion, the UFC. It was an easy, first-round win over a grossly overmatched opponent. That was the last “gimme” of his career. Three fights later, he defeated Randy Couture for the UFC heavyweight championship.

Let me repeat that. Brock Lesnar won the UFC heavyweight championship in his fourth professional fight. Not his fourth UFC fight. His fourth professional fight. And for the record, he had exactly zero amateur fights before turning professional.

Say what you will, but that is a jaw-dropping feat. In my opinion, it is the single-most impressive accomplishment in sports. Can you imagine anyone defeating Georges St-Pierre, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva or any other reigning champ after three career fights? Those things happened back in the dark days of the UFC, when fighters were one-dimensional, part-time fighters, not world class athletes dedicating their lives to the sport of mixed martial arts.

I’m going to go out on a big, sturdy, safe limb. Nobody will match Lesnar’s accomplishment in any UFC weight class in the next 20 years, if ever.

Haters will cite the fact that Couture was tailor made for Lesnar. I don’t disagree with that fact. Couture didn’t have the wrestling edge, so he could neither force the fight to the ground, nor keep it standing. He was a serviceable boxer but lacked the power to actually hurt Lesnar on the feet. And Couture has never been a submission wizard from his back. From a matchup standpoint, Couture was the perfect foil for Lesnar’s championship run. But he was still competing against the most decorated fighter in UFC history.

Lesnar proved his win over Couture was no fluke over his next two fights, both wins. Frank Mir is arguably the best heavyweight submission fighter in the world, and certainly a far better striker than Lesnar. Yet, he was beaten from pillar to post over two brutal rounds, unable to mount any semblance of an offensive attack against the champion before succumbing to strikes.

Shane Carwin, like Lesnar, is a monstrous physical specimen with amazing athleticism. He also possesses bone-crushing power in both of his fists. Lesnar survived adversity through most of the first round before dominating Carwin in the second en route to a beautiful submission win.

Lesnar’s two consecutive successful defenses of the UFC Heavyweight Championship matches the record set initially set by Couture and then matched by Andrei Arlovski and Tim Sylvia. His 707 consecutive day reign is the longest in UFC heavyweight history, 84 days longer than the previous record established by Couture. I don’t care if part of that time was spent sidelined due to his health. He still defended the belt as many times as anyone else, including one defense after diverticulitis reared its ugly head.

Of course, his fall from greatness was just as sharp as his rise through the sport. My good friend Thomas Gerbasi put it best. Lesnar’s career was like a shooting star—it didn’t last long and it burned out at the end, but when it was at its peak, it was something you wouldn’t miss seeing for the world. It is a brilliant description of Lesnar’s MMA career.

Dare I say that Brock Lesnar deserves to be inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame now that he has hung up the vale tudo gloves. His career accomplishments justify it, despite the fact that he only competed eight times. Those accomplishments bear repeating. UFC heavyweight champion in his fourth career fight. Two successful defenses ties for the best all-time. Reigning for 707 days is the longest in history.

Not a bad eight fight career. Not bad at all. In fact, I think it is an eight fight career that will never be duplicated.

OVEREEM PROVES HE IS THE REAL DEAL

Confession time. I thought Brock Lesnar was going to smash Alistair Overeem. That was probably all too obvious from reading my pre-fight breakdown. The reasons were three-fold. First, Overeem had never before faced a wrestler like Lesnar, and his lack of elite wrestling skills left me doubtful that he could keep the fight standing. Second, he looked remarkably human in his final three 205-lb fights before moving up to heavyweight. Third, his heavyweight accomplishments, while extremely impressive, didn’t exactly come against the MMA elite. There were lots of former UFC / PRIDE fighters on his list of heavyweight victims, but none of them were still at the peak of their career at the time they fell prey to “The Reem.”

Whoops.

Overeem looked tremendous against Lesnar. It was certainly his most impressive heavyweight performance to date, if not the best performance of his career. He did not rely solely on his fists, something he has done in recent bouts against dangerous ground fighters. Overeem instead masterfully mixed in his signature knee strikes and ultimately ended the bout with a perfectly placed shin to the body.

It was the type of performance that should make his title challenge against Junior dos Santos a box office smash. I know that I’m certainly far more interested in the matchup after watching Overeem undress Lesnar at UFC 141. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see the oddsmakers label him the betting favorite in that bout as well. The champion can certainly stand and box with anyone. The question will be whether he can deal with Overeem’s knees and kicks. I don’t see either man bringing takedowns into the mix. Thus, fans of standup wars should be salivating with anticipation over the first heavyweight title bout of 2012.

LESNAR CALLING IT QUITS AT THE PERFECT TIME

I will forever wonder whether Brock Lesnar knew the fate that awaited him at UFC 141. It was shocking to see him choose to stand and strike with Overeem in his MMA swan song. I kept waiting for a takedown attempt that never materialized. Haphazardly grabbing Overeem’s leg doesn’t count. I’m talking about changing levels and freight-training through an opponent like only Lesnar can do.

Ok, Josh Koscheck and a few others can execute similarly explosive takedowns, but no other heavyweight has that ability. I digress.

One has to believe that Lesnar’s two battles with diverticulitis, the second resulting in the removal of a 12-inch piece of his colon, sapped him of his trademark explosiveness. I cannot think of any other reason why Lesnar didn’t at least attempt to shoot in on Overeem. I simply refuse to believe that Lesnar, head trainer Marty Morgan, or anyone else devised a game plan that focused on standing with Overeem. Lesnar is famously stubborn and loves to prove people wrong, but such a game plan would fall far beyond the realm of insanity, if Lesnar still possessed the ability to explode into takedowns. Lesnar may be many things. Insane is not among them.

My guess is that he no longer possesses the ability to explode into double-leg attempts like he did early in his career, thanks to his health issues combined with the fact that he is 34 years old. I’m convinced that is why he knew heading into the Overeem bout that if he lost, it would be his last in the sport.

If I’m correct, then Lesnar’s retirement is coming at the perfect time. Leaving on the heels back-to-back losses to Cain Velasquez and Overeem is nothing to be ashamed of. And it certainly is nothing that overshadows, or in any way tarnishes, his brief, albeit wildly successful career.

IS DIAZ THE MASTER OF MIND GAMES?

Let’s not sugarcoat it. Nate Diaz does a great job of embracing the heel role. Not among fans. Diaz is just as fan friendly as anyone else in the UFC’s lightweight division. He embraces the heel role among his fellow fighters. Diaz makes no bones about the fact that he does not want to be cool with anyone “in his bracket,” as he likes to say.

His attitude toward his opponents is the same heading into each and every fight. Diaz acts loathsome toward his foes. He mean-mugs them at every opportunity. He often taunts them during pre-fight staredowns. And he certainly trash talks during fights.

Many think that is just part of his Stockton, California bravado. I think it is largely an act. One that is designed to both enrage his opponent and also put Diaz in the right mindset to enter a locked cage with a man who has trained for months to do nothing but hurt him.

His antics may not impact every bout, but I firmly believe they impacted his fight with Donald Cerrone. “Cowboy” typically fights with the calm, calculating approach of an assassin. He fought Diaz with pure emotion, particularly in the opening moments of the first round. Cerrone lived up to his pre-fight promise and literally ran across the cage and tried to punch Diaz in the face. The Cesar Gracie standout responded by slipping the punch and countering with a sharp, pinpoint combination that forever changed the course of the fight.

Cerrone was hurt with the very first salvo. He never fully recovered. Diaz, by contrast, used his success in the opening seconds as the foundation for a masterful standup performance, arguably the best of his career.

By the time the first round was over, Cerrone was a beaten fighter. Don’t get me wrong. There is no quit in “Cowboy,” and he fought valiantly for the next two rounds. But the look on his face said it all. There was nothing he was going to do to derail the Diaz train on that night, and I think he knew it.

Yet, once Cerrone stopped fighting from emotion and began just letting his game flow, he performed much better. He lost all three rounds on two of the scorecards, but it is undeniable that he was much more effective in rounds two and three.

After the fight, Diaz wasted no time reaching out to congratulate his opponent for what turned out to be the “Fight of the Night” winner. He also repeatedly acknowledged Cerrone in a sportsmanlike manner to make clear that any venom existed before the fight was nothing more than Diaz just being Diaz. He had no personal beef with Cerrone. It was all mind games.

Future opponents of a man who is rapidly becoming “Nate the Great” should keep that in mind. Fighting this guy from emotion is never a good idea. It takes a clear mind and sharp skills if to defeat Diaz. 

THE SILVER LINING IN FITCH’S DRAMATIC LOSS

Getting knocked out in 12 seconds surely hurts the ego. Jon Fitch was widely regarded as one of the top two or three welterweights in the world heading into UFC 141. His stunning loss to Johny Hendricks certainly changes that. The question is how much.

For my money, I think this was the best possible way for Fitch to lose. I know that may seem crazy, but follow along for a moment. There is no denying that Hendricks has dynamite in his left hand. The entire world knows that. He literally obliterated Fitch with a single, perfectly placed punch. The follow up shot was a glancing blow. Fitch was out before he hit the ground.

MMA is not boxing. Four-ounce gloves mean that anyone with good power can stop just about anyone else with a single punch. Vladimir Matyushenko walked into a jab that crumbled him. That never happens in boxing because of the excessive amount of padding in the gloves. Anderson Silva did the same thing to Forrest Griffin a few years ago, and nobody is questioning the thickness of Forrest’s beard. As a result, knockouts are just a fact of MMA life.

Since Fitch got hit with just one punch, we will never know who the better fighter at UFC 141 truly was. Twelve seconds isn’t long enough to answer that question. All we know is that Hendricks landed a perfect punch. If those two fought 100 times, I would bet every penny to my name that a 12-second knockout would not happen again. Hendricks may win some, most or even all of those bouts. I have no idea. I’m quite sure he would score other one-punch knockouts. But it wouldn’t happen in the first 12 seconds.

Thus, the world is left wondering, as is Fitch. I think that leaves intact his standing as one of the division’s true elite, likely not dropping him below Hendricks in the rankings based on their respective bodies of work over the last couple of years.

Now, imagine if Hendricks had completely dominated Fitch for several minutes, whether ultimately winning by knockout, submission or decision. Would there be any doubt as to who was the better fighter on that night? No. Taking a one-sided beating does more damage to someone’s standing in a division than a one-punch knockout or quick mistake submission loss.

Similarly, what if the pair had fought to a split decision, with Hendricks edging out the win? Doubt may have existed over who was the better fighter that night. But there would have been no doubt that Hendricks was certainly Fitch’s peer.

Now, let’s turn to a sudden come-from-behind win for Hendricks in a bout that Fitch was controlling. Again, that type of result, whether by knockout or submission, would draw into question Fitch’s lack of finishing ability. He is one of the most dominant welterweights of our day, but Fitch is anything but a finisher.

A one-punch knockout loss in 12 seconds raises a lot of questions. Did Fitch warm up properly? Did he temporarily get distracted? Were the stars in perfect alignment? There are millions of questions as to why the result happened. What we don’t have are people talking about how Fitch could not take down Hendricks, how Fitch could not control Hendricks after a takedown, or how Fitch could not do anything on the feet against Hendricks. We also shouldn’t see informed writers questioning Fitch’s chin. It has been tested by guys with as much power as Hendricks, and he passed with flying colors. He got caught at UFC 141—pure and simple. Nothing more. Nothing less. That is why I think that, if Fitch had to lose, Team Fitch should be pleased that it happened this way.

KUDOS TO HENDRICKS

For the record, I’m not in any way taking anything away from Hendricks’ win with the above thoughts on Fitch. It was one of the most spectacular efforts in recent memory, one that certainly earned him a marquee matchup against another division heavyweight, possibly in a main event or co-main event bout. It also makes him an instant title contender because he did something that nobody has ever done—annihilate Jon Fitch without so much as losing a drop of sweat.

The sky may, indeed, be the limit for Hendricks. But I’m going to remain cautiously optimistic for now. The win erases the bad taste of the Rick Story loss, but Fitch is the first true contender that Hendricks has ever beaten. It takes more than one A-list win, in my opinion, particularly when it comes in only 12 seconds, to establish deep roots among the division’s Preferiti.

This Friday’s heavyweight showdown between Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem is the quintessential battle of styles.

Lesnar is the single most dominant wrestler in the UFC heavyweight division. The former collegiate standout was a two-time Division I All-American and a national champion in his senior year. His overall collegiate record was 106-5. Daniel Cormier, a Strikeforce heavyweight standout, is the only heavyweight in the world who boasts better wrestling chops.

Overeem is a top-of-the-food-chain striker, arguably the best in the division. “The Reem” is the first man to ever simultaneously hold a major mixed martial arts belt and a major kickboxing title at the same time. The year was 2010. Overeem was the reigning Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion three years running when he won the K-1 World Grand Prix, a “best of the best” kickboxing title.

Suffice to say, Lesnar absolutely needs to get this fight to the ground if he wants to win, whereas Overeem desperately wants to keep it standing. How is that for simple?  Love it or hate it, that is the game plan for Friday night’s main event.

But that isn’t the end of the breakdown. Far from it, actually. Neither man wants the fight to unfold in the other’s breadbasket. That is for sure. Yet, one has a better chance at winning, even if the fight doesn’t stay where he is most comfortable.

Let’s face reality for a moment. Overeem is a massive, muscled heavyweight. This is a guy who, just a half decade ago, was referred to as a “skinny” competitor at 205 lbs. That version of Alistair Overeem actually had a pretty good offensive and defensive guard. He also had a sick guillotine choke, particularly of the standing variety. His height and long arms made that move extremely effective in the 205-lb division, where Overeem enjoyed height and length advantages over just about everyone.

Today’s version has fallen in love with his standup skills. More accurately, Overeem has fallen in love with his fists. The 205-lb version of Overeem was a ball of fire in the PRIDE Fighting Championships. He was always up for a good scrap with anyone who dared stand and strike with him. But he varied his strikes with all eight of his Muay Thai weapons, with his knees being his trademark finishing move, not his fists. These days, he rarely throws knees, kicks or elbows with any great frequency in his fights. It is, instead, all fists, all the time.

If Overeem faces Lesnar with nothing more than his fists as weapons, then he should still win, assuming the fight remains on the feet. But that is not a guarantee. Remember folks that Lesnar is an enormous human being, still slightly larger than Overeem. If he sits down on a sell-out punch, and that strike hits Overeem anywhere close to his jaw, it is goodnight baby. That is the reality of fighting a 265-lb athletic freak like Lesnar. He may not be a polished striker, but he is so insanely powerful and fast that he can turn out the lights on anyone at any given moment.

But let’s be clear about the situation. Lesnar doesn’t want to stand and strike with Overeem. Not at all. Lesnar remains a work in progress on the feet. He was completely overwhelmed with quick combination punching in his title loss to Cain Velasquez. Fortunately for Lesnar, though, Overeem is a very different standup fighter from Velasquez. The latter uses technically sound and very active footwork to constantly change angles with his constant volume punching. The former is a come forward, plodding bomber, preferring to let one or two huge shots go at a time, rather than peppering his foe with deeper combinations. Make no mistake about it. Overeem has extremely quick hands. When he sees an opening, he can explode as quickly as anyone in the division. But he remains so focused on takedown defense, especially when facing someone with a ground-first attack, that he fires mostly in isolation.

Heath Herring also fights with that same basic standup approach. Lesnar experienced a lot of success on the feet in his bout with Herring. He even scored a knockdown early in the fight. Yet, he seemed lost on the feet against both Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez. Why? The simple answer is that Herring’s approach to the standup portion of a fight gave Lesnar a lot of confidence because it gave him time to set his feet and throw punches. Neither Carwin nor Velasquez allowed him to do that. Overeem likely will.

With that said, Overeem wins a standup-focused fight with Lesnar more than 90 percent of the time. Again, this guy is a polished, powerful striker with C4 in his fists. Lesnar doesn’t want any part of those fists. But he knows that he will occasionally land a big strike, and that could be enough to sneak a TKO win.

Lesnar’s game plan, though, won’t be to search for a lottery-winning strike on the feet. It will be to score a takedown at all costs and dominate the ground game.

In fact, I would not be surprised at all to see Lesnar charge out of his corner at the opening bell just like he did against Min-Soo Kim. He knows that, as big of an advantage that Overeem enjoys on the feet, he is enjoys an even bigger advantage over Overeem in the wrestling realm. Lesnar should be able to get the fight to the ground just about any time that he wants. He is that good with his takedowns.

I’ve read a lot about Overeem’s takedown defense in the last few weeks. If we are being brutally honest, his heavyweight takedown defense remains a giant question mark. Keep in mind that Overeem’s heavyweight career has not seen him fight anyone that was much of a wrestler. Kazuyuki Fujita is probably the best heavyweight wrestler that Overeem has faced to date. Comparing Fujita to Lesnar, both in terms of his wrestling ability and athleticism, is like comparing the local junior high school basketball star to LeBron James.

On the ground, Overeem is in a heap of trouble. Lesnar is a master of short, grinding ground strikes while keeping himself out of submissions. Frank Mir, who arguably has the best offensive guard in the division, couldn’t do anything from his back against Lesnar in their 2009 rematch. Lesnar’s wide wrestling base and chest-down approach smothered Mir’s jiu-jitsu. Overeem is nowhere close to Mir’s league on the ground. Thus, it would be shocking to see him succeed at all from his back against Lesnar. Overeem will more likely get beaten to a bloody pulp if he gets taken down.

Another major factor in this fight could be conditioning. Overeem has always had questionable cardiovascular conditioning, and those concerns have compounded since he added 30-plus pounds of muscle over the last few years. He will be at his most explosive in the opening five minutes. After that, his punches will slow a bit as his arms begin to feel heavy. His takedown defense will also be at its best in the opening round when he is strong and light on his feet.

Lesnar knows all of that. My guess is that his team has formulated a game plan designed to survive the first round, principally through takedowns and smothering clinch work along the cage. The takedowns may be a bit tough early, but they will be there as the fight progresses past the five-minute mark. That is when Lesnar will likely begin to dominate the action.

While Lesnar wants a longer, grueling bout, Overeem’s game plan is likely to look for an early knockout. He knows that he doesn’t want to let Lesnar stick around for long because a single takedown from the big fella can change the outcome of the fight just as quickly as an Overeem right hand. “The Reem” should throw quick, hard combinations, just like Velasquez, if he wants to score an early knockout. Firing one at a time is not the best way to approach a guy like Lesnar because it won’t keep him on the defensive. Combinations, on the other hand, will almost certainly overwhelm the former UFC heavyweight champion.

So, who is going to win this one? The odds makers have labeled Overeem a small betting favorite. I just don’t see it, to be honest. Overeem is an unbelievably experienced mixed martial artist, but most of his world-class opposition was at light heavy. Lesnar has the much more impressive resume of opponents at heavyweight, so, in my opinion, Overeem has a lot of questions left to answer before we anoint him a legitimate top tier heavyweight. He will get the opportunity to answer those questions on Friday night.

In my opinion, the odds reflect the fact that Lesnar has spent much of the last two years locked in a scary battle with diverticulitis. Time spent on the sideline fighting that dreaded condition has, at best, stunted his development as a fighter. At worst, it eroded his skills. Only Lesnar knows for sure if he is 100 percent healthy with no lingering after effects. Only he knows if the dramatic weight loss he suffered with each bout of diverticulitis has affected his explosive wrestling.

I guess we will all know after Friday night.

QUICK FACTS

Brock Lesnar
•    34 years old
•    81-inch reach
•    5-2 overall
•    6 of 7 professional fights ended inside the distance  (4-2 in those fights)
•    40% of wins by KO/TKO
•    40% of wins by submission
•    20% of wins by decision
•    Former UFC heavyweight champion
•    Submission of the Night winner for Carwin bout
•    Current layoff of 433 days is the longest of his professional career

Alistair Overeem
•    31 years old
•    81.5-inch reach
•    35-11, 1 NC overall
•    41 out of 47 professional fights ended inside the distance (35-5, 1 NC in those fights)
•    40% of wins by KO/TKO
•    54% of wins by submission
•    6% of wins by decision
•    Former Strikeforce heavyweight champion
•    2010 K-1 World Grand Prix champion
•    First man to ever hold K-1 and major MMA titles in same year
•    Current layoff is 195 days

Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone are two of the most exciting young fighters in the lightweight division.

Diaz is the younger brother (and virtual carbon copy) of former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion and UFC veteran Nick Diaz and he is looking to build upon the tremendous momentum created with his Submission of the Night win over former PRIDE superstar Takanomi Gomi. This will be Diaz’s second 155-lb bout after spending a little over a year competing at 170. And a win over Cerrone will put Diaz right back into the division’s top 10.

Cerrone probably has even more at stake. The New Mexico-based fighter is in the midst of a six-fight winning streak, making him one of the hottest commodities in the division. A win over Diaz will almost certainly earn Cerrone a matchup against one of the 155 lb Preferiti, possibly in a title elimination challenge.

Battling to establish intra-division pecking order is great.  But that isn’t why I’m waiting with baited breath for this matchup. Diaz and Cerrone both love nothing more than to throw down, phone-booth style. This isn’t about competition for them. It is about handing out a beat down. Not because there is some long animosity between the two. There isn’t, as far as I’m aware. It is because these guys are fighters deep down in their DNA. That is why 10 of their combined 18 UFC fights have resulted in “of the night” awards, whether fight, submission or knockout.

I have a feeling that December 30 will be 11 out of 19.

When the referee signals for the action to begin, Diaz will come looking to do what he always does – box from the southpaw stance. He paws at his opponent with his right hand, just like his brother Nick, in order to distract defending eyes. Diaz will pop crisp, straight left hands behind his pawing right. He will quickly snap off a right hook. And generally throw a variety of other shots from unconventional angles.

Of course, that is not to suggest that Diaz’s game is devoid of a jab. It is not. He fires the jab in between groping paws. He also drops his hands to his waist and sticks out his chin in order to shoot a jab from his hip. It is a vintage Nick Diaz move, one that his younger brother has adopted as his own.

If the entire fight unfolded on the feet, Diaz would be content. That is borne more out of necessity than preference. Despite the fact that Diaz has sick submission skills, he has below average takedowns. Thus, he struggles to get the fight to the floor at will. He must instead fight on the feet until there is a knockdown or his opponent takes him down.

Diaz’s standup attack is really of hunt-and-peck nature. He is not a knockout artist. Not by a long shot. He has but a single knockout win over the past five years. It came against a much bigger, stronger fighter, Rory Markham. But that was Diaz showing the world that stinging, pinpoint shots can end fights just like explosive bombs. Maybe not in an instant, but certainly over the course of a few minutes.

The younger Diaz won’t change up that approach for Cerrone. I don’t care if most believe that the “Cowboy” is superior on the feet. Diaz will throw hands with anyone, including Cerrone. The question, of course, is whether or not that is a good idea.

Cerrone was a professional kickboxer before entering mixed martial arts. He has a couple dozen kickboxing bouts on his professional record without a single loss. Yet, he has only a single knockout win on his MMA resume.

Odd, I know. But I think that says something about Cerrone’s kickboxing pedigree. It was not at a world class level. He wasn’t blasting people in K-1. He was dominating his local circuit. I’m fairly certain Diaz would have experienced similar success.

Of course, that is not to suggest that Cerrone is a chump on the feet. Quite the opposite is true. He is a very good technical striker. He fights in the traditional Thai style with very square shoulders so that he can strike with all eight points of attack – fists, elbows, knees and shins.

Squaring up like that certainly makes him more vulnerable to standup assaults from his opponents, but it also leaves him in perfect position to defend takedowns. It is the same style that UFC legend Chuck Liddell used to earn millions of dollars, in addition to a spot in the Hall of Fame and a stint as 205-lb champion.

Cerrone isn’t a slugger like Liddell. He doesn’t detonate on foes. He instead chips away at them, just like Diaz. Not like Diaz stylistically. Like Diaz in terms of crisp, accurate, well executed strikes.

He will look to utilize those skills against Diaz, just like he has in basically every other fight. Cerrone will come forward, with his hands held high, and will use his jab to set up two- and three-piece combinations. Unlike Diaz, though, he will also throw very effective kicks to the legs and body. And when faced with a clinch situation, he will fire knees and elbows as he likely dominates the position.

Both guys prefer to stand and bang. All that is fine and good. But it isn’t the way that most of their fights ultimately end. Both men have won more than 70% of their career bouts by submission. Think about that for a moment. Neither man is an accomplished wrestler. Yet, each wins by submission far more often than not.

Most of that is due to the fact that foes end up taking them down. Why? Simple. Opponents are sick of getting peppered in the face.

I don’t see either Diaz or Cerrone spending much time trying to secure a takedown on December 30. If that happens, I like Diaz all day, every day to win by submission. His skills, refined under the ultra critical eye of Cesar Gracie, are among the very best in the division. Cerrone, who is coached by the highly respected Greg Jackson, is a solid submission guy. But there is a stark contrast between a solid Jackson submission guy and a Gracie expert.

If Cerrone ends up on the ground, thanks to Diaz pulling guard, he will focus almost exclusively on implementing a ground-and-pound assault, rather than engaging in a transition jiu-jitsu contest. If the strikes sufficiently soften up Diaz, then Cerrone will look for a fight-ending choke. He won’t want to mess with Diaz’s grappling prowess in any other situation.

If Cerrone finds himself fighting from his back, he will do whatever, at any cost, to get back to his feet. He wants no part of Diaz’s top game. None whatsoever. He won’t admit it. But I’m certain of it.

Diaz, by contrast, will look to mix strikes and submission attempts, whether he is in the top or bottom position. He knows that he is the better submission artist. In fact, he probably hopes that his strikes force Cerrone to shoot for a takedown.  My guess is Diaz won’t really try to defend the takedown attempt, if it comes. And if he finds himself on the short end of the standup exchanges, Diaz may very well pull guard. He won’t want to because he is a gladiator’s gladiator, but that would be a wise decision.

So, who is going to win? Honestly, I don’t really know. I think the bout is a tossup on the feet. If they fight 10 times in a standup-only affair, the bout probably ends in 10 different ways. I think Diaz is much better on the ground, as written above. Yet, I’m not sure the fight will spend any significant time there, absent someone getting rocked on the feet first.

I may not have a good feeling on who is going to win, but that really doesn’t bother me, either. For me, this fight isn’t about a winner or loser. Sure, he who is victorious will further cement his standing in the division. Nonetheless, I don’t see either man’s career getting derailed by a loss. Why? Because this is going to be a fun-filled, all-action, first-class scrap. It will be the sort of fight that will thrill the fans from beginning to end, no matter how long it lasts. It is a fight that should win an “of the night” award. And it is a fight that should leave fans clamoring for more from both men.

That is why this one is must-see TV.

QUICK FACTS

Nate Diaz
•    26 years old
•    6’0
•    155 lbs
•    76-inch reach
•    14-7 overall
•    3-2 in last 5
•    5-5 in last 10
•    50% of UFC fights resulted in post-fight award (Submission of the Night 3x, Fight of the Night 4x)
•    Ultimate Fighter Season 5 winner
•    Current layoff is 97 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 310 days

Donald Cerrone
•    28 years old
•    6’0
•    155 lbs
•    73-inch reach
•    17-3, 1 NC overall
•    Six-fight winning streak
•    8-2 in last 10
•    75% of UFC fights resulted in post-fight award (Fight of the Night, Submission of the Night, Knockout of the Night)
•    Current layoff is 62 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 270 days

BOTH NOGUEIRAS LOOKED GREAT, DESPITE BIG BROTHER’S LOSS

Let’s start with the easy one. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira looked spectacular in his first round knockout win over former champion Tito Ortiz at UFC 140 last Saturday night. It is a rare treat to witness a fighter commit so thoroughly to body shots that he stops the fight with those grossly underutilized techniques. “Lil’ Nog” finally returned to his elite self after a run of three less-than-stellar performances. I have always thought that he had the right blend of skills, heart and experience to challenge for 205-lb supremacy. A win over Ortiz isn’t enough to anoint him a legitimate title contender, but it is a huge step in the right direction.

Rogerio’s heavier twin wasn’t so fortunate, but I think he looked tremendous, despite the loss to Frank Mir. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira was certainly winning the fight on the feet, with what appeared to be relative ease, I might add. He simply got caught in a submission once the action went to the ground. There is no shame in being submitted by Mir. The fact that “Big Nog” suffered a broken arm is almost irrelevant to the question of whether he has reached the end of his illustrious career—a question that UFC President Dana White posed after his knockout loss to Cain Velasquez back in February 2010. The all-time great attempted to tap out a split second before his bone snapped. Had he made that decision a few precious seconds earlier, he probably would not be on the mend right now and would instead be campaigning for a quick return bout, since he didn’t otherwise suffer any damage at all in the fight.

For what it is worth, I believe that Rodrigo should be given another opportunity to prove his mettle, once his arm is fully healed. If Mir had brutally knocked him out, I might feel differently. But this guy looked tremendous in his knockout win over tough rising star Brendan Schaub just a few months ago, and he looked great against Mir up until the end. I don’t care whether Nogueira was a shot fighter or if he was put in that position at the height of his PRIDE championship reign, Mir would have finished that fight once he got that kimura locked in just the same. But if he is truly a shot fighter, would he have had Mir’s legs doing funny dances moments before getting submitted? That is the question we should ask ourselves.

ORTIZ WANTS ONE MORE, WILL HE RECEIVE THE OPPORTUNITY?

Tito Ortiz was once the face of mixed martial arts. The “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” was a dominant champion who ruled the light heavyweight division for a record 1,203 days and five successful defenses. Yet, if we are being honest with ourselves, Ortiz hasn’t been a factor in the division since suffering his second knockout loss to Chuck Liddell five years ago. The former champion is now 1-6-1 in his last eight bouts, including back-to-back technical knockout losses.

I don’t know if Ortiz’s history of back injuries has sapped him of his explosiveness and once-dominant wrestling, or if the sport has simply evolved beyond him. Either way, it is difficult to imagine Ortiz as anything other than a healthy underdog against the top half of the UFC’s 205-lb roster. That has to be a tough pill to swallow for the proud athlete and an eye-opening reality for those who want to see him continue fighting in the UFC. Few former champions are able to accept when their time has passed. Liddell faced the same issues. Granted, Ortiz isn’t getting knocked unconscious time and time again. But the fact remains that he has only won once over the last five years. No other UFC fighter has been given that sort of win-loss latitude in the Zuffa era. Don’t get me wrong. I believe Ortiz has earned this sort of star treatment for his body of career accomplishments.

Nonetheless, all great stories have to end at some point, and UFC President Dana White has not been shy in recent years about telling the world that the end was near for Ortiz, if he didn’t turn around his string of defeats. After his loss to Nogueira, Ortiz mentioned that he wanted one more fight, so that he could end his career with a win. Of course he wants that. All the greats want to go out that way. The problem, of course, is that if Ortiz once again tastes victory, it is even less likely that he will be ready to walk away from a sport that made him both wealthy and famous.

But if this was, indeed, the final time that the world will see Ortiz compete inside the Octagon, we should all take a moment to tip our respective hats in respect and appreciation to someone who absolutely deserves to grace the walls of the UFC Hall of Fame once his career comes to an official end.   

HALLMAN FIXES WARDROBE MISTAKE, BUT FUMBLES IN HIS WIN NONETHELESS

Dennis Hallman is a grizzled veteran of the fight game. He is a tremendous ground tactician who can defeat just about anybody if the fight largely unfolds on the canvas. But he certainly showed less than sound judgment in his previous UFC bout, showing up to fight wearing blue speedos. On Saturday night, Hallman scored an impressive first round submission victory over John Makdessi via rear-naked choke. It was a dominant performance by a guy who calls himself “Superman.” And much to my delight, he showed up wearing traditional board-style fight shorts.

But, alas, not everything was positive about Hallman’s effort. The man who owns two career victories over Matt Hughes failed to make weight—a major no-no in this sport. In fact, he didn’t even come close. I will admit that I was more than a little surprised when I learned that Hallman was going to compete at lightweight at UFC 140. This is a guy who competed in Strikeforce a couple of years ago at middleweight, and for the past two years, he has competed at welterweight. The drop from middleweight to lightweight is a massive undertaking, one that many athletes simply cannot do, nor should they try.

Hallman is the exception to that rule, in my opinion. While I expected him to show up amazingly gaunt at the weigh-ins and completely drained come fight time, he actually looked great in his almost-lightweight bout. If Hallman can find a way to shed those last 3.5 pounds and still maintain his cardio and strength, then I think he can make very real waves in the lightweight division.

CANADIAN FIGHTERS STRUGGLE IN FRONT OF HOMETOWN CROWD

The pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 140 aired four Canadian fighters. All of them lost. Three lost in spectacular fashion. Mark Hominick, undoubtedly the most highly touted of the foursome, appeared to be too hyped up fighting in front of his fellow countrymen. He inexplicably threw a wild, leaping left hook an instant after touching gloves. Chan Sung Jung countered with a perfectly placed right hand. Hominick was knocked out in an official record-tying seven seconds. The way I see it, Duane Ludwig is the real knockout king at four seconds, if Nevada would step up and fix the timekeeper snafu. But I digress.

While you can’t take anything away from the impressive performance of “The Korean Zombie,” Hominick was fighting with an extremely heavy heart due to the recent passing of close friend and trainer Shawn Tompkins, so something tells me that Hominick wasn’t himself in the cage.

Krzysztof Soszynski, the most recognizable of the four thanks to his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, suffered a similar fate, though it took a bit longer. Twenty-seven seconds longer, to be exact. Igor Pokrajac certainly flipped the script of relevance with the win, having now won two in a row and three of his last four in the UFC. Soszynski will now be forced to go back to the drawing board and begin rebuilding his application for 205-lb contender status, just when he was on the cusp of making waves in the sport’s glamour division.

Makdessi was similarly obliterated by Hallman, though once again it took a bit longer. Hallman needed just over half of the first round to force him to tap out. Makdessi was in search of his third straight win, though it wasn’t to be. This guy is a monster striker. He obviously needs to work more on his takedown defense so that he can keep the fight where it needs to be in order to maximize his chance at winning. Despite that fact, there is no shame in getting tapped by Hallman, who is one of the very best grapplers in the division.

Unlike his three comrades, Claude Patrick did not get blown out on the PPV broadcast. In fact, I thought he deserved the nod over Brian Ebersole. Yet, two of the three judges saw it differently, awarding Ebersole a controversial split decision. I’m not sure what else Patrick needed to do in order to secure a win. He seemed to land the bigger shots on the feet, though neither man did much in the standup arena. He also attempted multiple submissions, with more than one appearing to be fairly close to finding its mark. Ebersole, on the other hand, showed crafty grappling ability by surviving each submission attempt. I’m not sure that should be enough to warrant a victory. Maybe that is why I’m not a judge.

Much to the pleasure of the partisan crowd, Mark Bocek and Yves Jabouin each pulled out impressive victories to prevent a clean sweep. The tough results were reminiscent of UFC 58: USA vs. Canada, where the Canadian contingent won a similar percentage of the bouts. Of course, our northern neighbors know that combat competition isn’t about one country versus another. It is about man versus man. The results have nothing to do with the state of Canada’s growing mixed martial arts prowess. After all, one of the greatest fighters on the planet just so happens to be Canada’s first fistic son, Georges St-Pierre.

JONES MAKES HIS ‘BONES’

Any article written about Jon Jones is laced with superlatives. Conversations border on hyperbole. Anyone who watched him compete on Saturday night now understands why.

Jones ran into formidable opposition in the form of Lyoto Machida at UFC 140. The former champion was able to confuse and frustrate Jones throughout the first round. He darted in and out with punches. He countered Jones’ kicks with stiff left hands. And he continually moved and feinted.

The youngest champion in UFC history simply could not figure out the Machida puzzle through the first five minutes of the fight. He went to his corner with a look of concern for the first time ever. But I seriously doubt that trainer Greg Jackson was overly bothered by what he saw, because for all the frustration that Jones suffered in the opening round, two things were made abundantly clear to those closely watching the action.

First, Machida did not have the juice to stop Jones with a single shot. The champion ate at least two bombs right on the button. Both got his attention. Neither truly hurt him. That was in stark contrast to how Rashad Evans, Rameau Sokoudjou, Tito Ortiz, and Thiago Silva reacted when Machida hit them. For that matter, even iron-jawed Quinton “Rampage” Jackson seemed more affected by the punching power of “The Dragon” than Jones was. Thus, the only real question hanging over Jones heading into the fight—the quality of his chin—was answered with an exclamation point.

Second, Jones did not flip out when he faced a bit of adversity. He instead appeared to be adjusting to Machida’s speed and tactics as the round wore on. That is a major hurdle for most opponents to overcome. At first, Jones seemed completely befuddled by Machida’s speed. But toward the end of the round, he appeared to be settling down a bit. He appeared to be trying to time Machida coming in, something that would ultimately lead to the end of the bout.

Jones scoring a submission win over Machida was nothing short of spectacular. Sure, Machida has now lost three of his last four fights, which raises some very real questions about where he truly stands among the division elite. But nobody has ever submitted him before. Jones is the first, and that is a very noteworthy accomplishment.

Another noteworthy accomplishment is becoming the first champion since Chuck Liddell to successfully defend the 205-lb title more than once. In fact, Jones is only the fourth man in history to do that, joining Tito Ortiz, Liddell and Frank Shamrock in the ultra-exclusive fraternity. It suffices to say that Jones has now officially made his “Bones” as a champion.

WHAT IS NEXT FOR JONES?

That is the proverbial $64,000 question. My guess is that he will take a well-deserved, somewhat lengthy vacation. He has mentioned a couple of times this year that he wanted to take some time off to rest, recover and work solely on technique, rather than preparing for a fight. For someone who competed four times in the last 10 months, that is a very reasonable request. But remember that we are talking about a guy who is still only 24 years old. He is in his absolute athletic prime, though still not yet in his fighting prime. My guess is a “lengthy vacation” means a couple of weeks of absolutely nothing and then a fierce return to the gym shortly after the New Year with an eye on a spring return to action. That is what I would be pressing for, if I was managing the champion. He should be looking to remain active so that he can continue to build upon each win, rather than remaining stagnant or even regressing from the lack of gym time during a long layoff.

A spring return quickly brings two names to mind—Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans.

Hendo is fresh off his thrilling, Fight of the Year caliber win over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua a few weeks ago. He isn’t getting any younger, so my guess is that he will want a relatively short turnaround, which means February or March. But there is no doubt that he would wait a month or two longer, if it meant the opportunity to face Jones for the 205-lb championship.

Evans is currently busy preparing for his January 28 battle against highly touted prospect Phil Davis on Fox. If he is able to defeat Davis, which is no safe assumption, by the way, then there is no doubt that he will get the title shot that has been promised to him for nearly a year. The key for Evans will be winning the fight without sustaining any injuries, so that he can quickly gear up for a spring bout.

Either one of those guys is a great matchup to test Jones’ skills. Hendo is arguably right there alongside Rampage as the most powerful puncher in the division. Evans is just a hair slower than Machida, in terms of foot speed, but he probably has equally quick hands. And both men are tremendous wrestlers.

While the questions surrounding the sturdiness of Jones’ chin were answered on Saturday night, nobody still has been able to question his ability to either get up from his back or successfully defend from that position. Hendo and Evans are probably the two most likely suitors to successfully put Jones on his back.

Remember, styles make fights. Could either of those two men be Jones’ kryptonite? Is Phil Davis, a tremendous amateur wrestler in his own right, going to throw a wrench into everything and secure a shot against Jones by dominating Evans? It is tough to imagine someone apart from those three men getting the next shot, but UFC President Dana White and matchmaker extraordinaire Joe Silva have surprised me more than once.

MIR BACK AMONG THE VERY BEST

Frank Mir had to feel like he was at a career crossroad when he was annihilated by Shane Carwin back in March of last year. His title prospects seemed all but gone after losing twice in three fights to cartoon-sized monsters like Carwin and Brock Lesnar. Sandwiched in between there was an extremely impressive win over Cheick Kongo, one in which Mir knocked the kickboxer on his backside with a strike before choking him out. Nonetheless, the Carwin loss had to be frustrating for the former champion.

Fast forward to today and everything seems different. Mir looked fantastic in his first round win over all-time great Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The world has always known that Mir was one of the very best submission artists among all heavyweights. Many believed, however, that Nogueira was in a class of his own in that regard, standing a safe step above Mir and everyone else. Not anymore. Defeating Nogueira via kimura corrected that misconception.

In my opinion, this is the best Frank Mir that the world has ever seen. He has completely evolved as a mixed martial artist since his terrible motorcycle accident in late 2004. Before the crash, he was nothing more than an average sized submission artist. He is now a monstrous submission guy with the standup chops to compete on the feet with just about anyone, except for maybe the very best strikers in the division. That makes for one heck of a fighter.

I still think that Mir is likely to struggle with Lesnar and Carwin. Again, styles make fights. But I certainly think he matches up much better against current champion Junior dos Santos or former champion Cain Velasquez than he does Lesnar or Carwin. I also think he matches up extremely well against Alistair Overeem, the man who faces Lesnar on December 30 for the right to next challenge for the heavyweight crown.

In other words, I firmly believe that Mir has a good shot at yet another run at the greatest title in sports. I think the perfect next fight for him would be a bout with newly conquered former champion Velasquez. That could easily serve as a next-in-line bout after Lesnar-Overeem. Plus, it is a terrific test for both men.

Tune in tomorrow for more thoughts on last Saturday’s UFC 140 event…