Author: By Michael DiSanto

There truly is no rest for the weary when it comes to Jon Jones.

Seventy-seven days after facing Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in the first defense of his UFC light heavyweight championship, Jones will return to action to face one of the toughest puzzles in all of mixed martial arts, Lyoto Machida. Eleven weeks is a short turnaround time for any elite fighter facing top competition, not to mention a champion defending his belt.  

It is common for prospects building their competitive resumes to fight monthly or even bi-weekly when building their resumes against grossly overmatched foes. But most UFC champions compete two, maybe three times a year, if the fans are lucky. This will be Jones’ fourth fight in just over 10 months.

That is a ridiculous pace. Conventional wisdom suggests that he cannot keep it up. Not if he wants to hold onto that shiny gold belt that currently sits around his waist.  

The question, of course, is whether it will impact Saturday’s main event. Will Jones be a bit overtrained? Is he getting mentally burned out? Only time will tell. I’m not sure if Team Jones even knows the answer to those questions just yet.

The fear over overtraining and burnout isn’t the only things working against Jones. History also favors the challenger.

Eleven men have reigned as the UFC’s 205-pound champion.  Only three have successfully defended the title more than once. Chuck Liddell was the last man to accomplish that feat, and his reign ended nearly five years ago.

Of the six champions since Liddell, only Rampage, Jones and Machida successfully defended even once. Those are startling statistics. The numbers clearly demonstrate the incredible parity in the UFC’s glamour division.

They also suggest that Saturday might be Machida’s night to finally make Jones seem human.

The problem with all of that is the fact that numbers are nothing more than numbers. People fight. Numbers don’t. And I’m quite certain that Jones couldn’t care less about the fact that his level of activity is far beyond the norm or that nobody since Liddell has successfully defended the title more than twice.

How am I so sure of that? Well, nobody in history had ever won a UFC title at the ripe young age of 23 until Jones did it back in March. No fighter had ever won UFC gold with less than eight weeks to recover and prepare since his previous bout in the Octagon. Jones snatched the title from Shogun a mere six weeks after bludgeoning Ryan Bader.

Only one man in the last decade has scored a submission win over Rampage. Yep, you guessed it. Jon Jones.

This guy breaks the mold in so many ways it is tough to keep up at times. He is anything but ordinary in terms of his fighting style and career accomplishments, so I’m going to go out on a rather short limb and suggest that neither his competitive frequency nor history will play any role in this fight. Jones will show up at his best—properly trained, physically strong and mentally ready to go.

I also fully expect Machida to show up at his absolute best. No other fighter in the sport lives mixed martial arts more than “The Dragon.” This guy personifies bushido in every aspect of his life. He would never disrespect himself, the sport or his opponent by taking a haphazard approach to preparing for a fight. No chance whatsoever.

This will be a fight decided by styles and skills, not extraneous factors, which raises the question of how these guys matchup against each other. Readers who regularly peruse my big fight breakdowns probably expect me to write that Jones, who has some of the best takedowns in the division, needs to put Machida on his back. While I’m confident the champion will do just that at some point in the fight, I don’t think he should hesitate to stand with Machida.

Jones is an extremely effective standup fighter, despite the fact that he has only been training that part of his game for a couple of years.  One thing that makes him so unique is his record-setting 84.5-inch reach. No other fighter in the UFC, not even guys in the heavyweight division, can match that wingspan. As a result, he can land strikes from distances that are virtually impossible to prepare for. His crazy reach gave Rampage and Shogun, two standup experts, tremendous problems. It will do the same to Machida.

Another unique thing about Jones’ standup is that he is almost perfectly ambidextrous with his punches, seamlessly switching between orthodox and southpaw stances at will. When he remains committed to the jab, his standup is masterful from either side. He can do that and score against Machida, dominating the fight from the outside.

The problem, and all fighters have problems, is that Jones tends to lunge with a lazy left when he leads with a power shot from a southpaw stance. It is one of the only shots that he throws without excellent snap. As a result, the shot doesn’t have much juice on it, and, worse yet, he tends to pull it back very low.

Machida is an expert counterstriker. An expert of the first order. He will absolutely be trying to key off of that shot with a right hook over the top, a left of his own down the middle, or a right high kick. If I were in Jones’ corner for the fight, I would hammer home the need to remain in the orthodox stance because I don’t think he can resist leading with a lazy left.

In my opinion, that flaw in his game, particularly when matched with a lightning-quick, expert counterstriker like Machida, overrides the fact that it is easier to shoot for takedowns from a southpaw stance. Remember, Jones’ right is his dominant hand. Unlike kickboxers and boxers, who typically keep their dominant hand back, wrestlers want their dominant hand forward to assist with takedowns.

Of course, that isn’t the only way that Jones can get the fight to the ground. He is freakishly good at Greco or Judo throws. Just ask anyone he has faced to date. Machida is excellent in the clinch. But he will get thrown by Jones from that position. Guaranteed.

Once he throws him, Jones should use his amazing ground control to keep the Brazilian on his back. Forget submissions because Machida is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Jones wants no part of that game. It should be all ground and pound all day. Jones can win by decision or stoppage that way.

Jones’ standup might be tremendous, but Machida is not overmatched on the feet. Not by a mile. As written above, I think he has one of the most awkward, difficult to solve styles in the sport.

Machida stands with his shoulders perpendicular to his opponent, which is a traditional Karate stance, with his weight well behind his center point and his upper body noticeably leaning toward his back foot.  That is all designed to make him difficult to hit, not to maximize his ability to strike.  

Indeed, Machida isn’t trying to be effective offensively.  Not in the traditional sense, at least.  He instead uses his stance to feint in exaggerated form from a safe distance.  He uses quick jab steps and sudden exaggerated shoulder movements in very herky-jerky movements to set the distance and pace of the fight.  He wants an opponent to react to those movements by covering up or starting a counter.

If he gets no reaction, Machida will throw the occasional lead high kick on the end of one of those jab steps or he may sprint in briefly with piston-like punches, never more than two or three at a time.  Neither attack is overly dangerous, nor are they meant to be.  

The progression of feints and the occasional strikes are designed to accomplish two goals. First and foremost, he wants to set up his money move, which is leading with a kick to the body followed immediately by a short straight left. Machida caught Rashad Evans with that kick-punch combination late in the first round and dropped him.  It wasn’t the force of the blow that led to the knockdown, rather the fact that Evans’ attention was wholly focused on defending the kick to the body.

The other goal is to tempt his foe to throw tentative one-strike counters that he can counter back. The counters are tentative because opponents are so confused by Machida’s movements. Hesitation is disastrous against a laser-sharp counterstriker like Machida.

Why? Machida has seriously underrated power. His knockout wins over Thiago Silva, Randy Couture and Evans vividly demonstrate that he is a killer on the feet, when he wants to be.  But again, he is not a slugger. His power comes from perfect technique and timing mixed with insane speed.

Suffice to say, this fight will be a chess match, not a slugfest. Saturday’s main event features two amazing, though very different, technicians. One wrong move by either man can bring the fight to a violent end. Then again, neither has shown a great tendency to make mistakes, so this one may go to the judges. In fact, everything points to a bout that lasts the distance, but I don’t think it will unfold that way.

I think this fight is going to end by knockout. I just have a feeling.

QUICK FACTS

Jon Jones
•    24 years old
•    6’4, 205 lbs
•    84.5-inch reach
•    14-1 overall
•    Lone UFC loss was a DQ for illegal elbow strikes to Matt Hamill in a fight Jones was dominating
•    Reigning UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    266-day reign as champion; 1 successful defense so far
•    Last 7 fights ended inside the distance
•    57.1% of wins by KO/TKO
•    28.6% of wins by submission
•    14.3% of wins by decision
•    Knockout of the Night, Fight of the Night, Submission of the Night winner
•    Current layoff is 77 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 188 days

Lyoto Machida
•    33 years old
•    6’1, 205 lbs
•    74-inch reach
•    17-2 professional record
•    3-2 in last 5 fights
•    8-2 in last 10 fights
•    16 straight wins to start professional career
•    6-2 against 7 current or former UFC  champions
•    Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    350-day reign as champion; 1 successful title defense
•    52.9% of wins by decision
•    35.3% of wins by KO
•    11.8% of wins by submission
•    Knockout of the Night three times
•    Current layoff is 224 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 308 days
•    2-2 in career following layoffs over 190 days

Not to beat a dead horse, but this Saturday’s Ultimate Fighter 14 finale main event between coaches Michael Bisping and Jason “Mayhem” Miller, just like many others, is about one man keeping it on the feet and the other taking it to the ground.  Brilliant, I know.  But that is the reality for most fights, particularly when one man has a significant edge on the feet and the other on the ground.

That is absolutely the case with Bisping versus Miller.  Bisping is in a different league on the feet. “The Count” is a skilled kickboxer, though certainly not an overly heavy-handed one. He isn’t going to knock out Miller with a single strike thrown early in the bout, principally because he is a stick-and-move combatant, rather than one who sits down and swings for the fences.

Miller is a decent striker for mixed martial arts, but the reality is that Bisping defeats him in a kickboxing bout 19 out of 20 times. Miller’s only chance on the feet is pull out a winning lottery ticket with a punch, elbow, kick or knee that opens a fight-ending cut or that is a perfectly executed one that Bisping doesn’t see and lands in just the right spot. I’m not saying that it is impossible for Miller to score a knockout on the feet.  If I’ve learned anything over the last 18 years of watching the UFC, it is that anything can happen in any fight.  It is just highly unlikely, and he would not be well served trying to prove me wrong.

“Mayhem” instead wants to get the fight to the ground immediately and keep it there. The submission game and general grappling is where Miller is at his best. The majority of his finishes are by submission, and a good chunk of his technical knockouts came by way of ground and pound. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Talk to anyone who has rolled with Miller at some point in the last decade. Odds are even better that those who have rolled with him will rave about his ground prowess.

Of course, Bisping is no slouch on the ground, not by a long shot. In fact, he enjoyed some success in UK grappling tournaments, and I think it is fair to say that he has one of the more underrated guards in division. But he is no “Mayhem” Miller. Again, not by a long shot.

All that raises two obvious questions. Let’s deal with the tougher one first. How does Miller get the fight to the ground?

Honestly, I’m not sure. Conventional wisdom suggests that he should come out swinging in an attempt to convince Bisping to forget his sprawl and focus on dropping bombs.  At that point, he can change levels and explode for a takedown.

I’m not sure that will work for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, Miller doesn’t have great takedowns, and Bisping has excellent takedown defense. That isn’t such a big deal, if he can really get “The Count” to throw his weight down and forward in order to truly load up on his shots. If that happens and Miller dips under a big right hand, then even first-grade wrestling is probably enough to score a takedown.

The problem, however, is that Miller will have to stand and trade with Bisping for quite awhile in order to convince him that the game plan is to brawl.  During that time, Bisping will score a lot of points with his excellent jab and crisp one-twos. When Miller leads with shots of his own, Bisping will slice through his standup attack with precise counters.

Thus, Miller should really try to avoid exchanges altogether. The better approach is to attack aggressively with his hands up and look to initiate a clinch, rather than punching away.

Bisping is excellent at defending takedowns, but I think that he is more exposed to takedowns from the clinch because he tries to pull straight out, which opens the door for trips and Greco-Roman throws.  That isn’t necessarily Miller’s forte for taking the fight to the ground, but he is a strong, athletic middleweight who has always had a knack for getting opponents to the mat, often with unconventional methods. Big shock for a guy called “Mayhem.”

If the fight goes to the floor, my guess is that Miller will really focus on softening up Bisping with ground and pound, rather than quickly working for slick submissions.  He will want to sap some of his strength and cardio with heavy hips, forcing Bisping to really carry his weight and defend on the ground, which will start to take away from the Brit’s standup later in the fight. Whatever the case, as soon as Bisping finds himself on the ground, he should quickly get his heels on Miller’s hips and explode to create room to pop back up on his feet.

Miller, of course, will want to prevent that from happening by keeping his hips down with a wide base.  That will help him control his opponent on the canvas.  He should slowly work his ground and pound while forcing Bisping to the cage, where he can smother him against the fence, effectively stifling Bisping’s jiu-jitsu.  The downside is that Bisping will be able to use the fence to stand up if Miller gives him any room to breathe whatsoever.

If Bisping makes any mistakes trying to work to his feet or if he allows Miller to pass into side control and tries to roll out, Miller will not hesitate to snake around to his back and look for a fight-ending rear naked choke.  I think that is a very real possibility.  

Another very real possibility is that Bisping leaves an arm unattended while defending Miller’s surprisingly effective ground and pound. That can easily lead to an armbar or arm triangle. I think one of those three submissions—rear naked choke, armbar or arm triangle – are the most likely methods of victory for Miller.

Of course, all that assumes that Miller is successful taking down Bisping.  I’m not certain that will happen.  As mentioned, the Brit has excellent takedown defense.  That was obvious in his fights with Rashad Evans and Matt Hamill, both of whom are far better wrestlers than Miller.  Bisping is good at sprawling, and he is excellent at avoiding clinches along the fence.  More importantly, though, he typically employs a stick-and-move strategy against ground fighters, rather than stalking like an apex predator.  

Bisping is very skilled at fighting behind an active jab while circling to his left.  In my opinion, that is when he is the most effective, despite the fact that it was his major mistake in his first knockout loss.  In that fight, he was facing Dan Henderson, who happens to have a dynamite-filled right hand, so circling to his left meant that he was walking right into the weapon he so desperately wanted to avoid.

Miller doesn’t have a dynamite-filled right hand, so Bisping shouldn’t worry about jabbing and circling to his left.  Circling will make it difficult for Miller to square up to Bisping and either shoot for a takedown or lockup a clinch.

Keep in mind that sticking and moving doesn’t mean pity pat strikes.  Bisping throws most of his shots, including his jab, with conviction.  That is obvious by the fact that 14 of his 22 wins came by way of knockout or technical knockout.  Nevertheless, he is not a come-forward-at-all-costs apex predator with a granite chin and bazookas for fists, ala Hendo.  He instead needs to set up his strikes with angles and chip away at his opponent until his foe is dazed, at which point Bisping can throw caution to the wind and open up full throttle.

All that is a long way of saying that if the fight remains on the feet, Bisping will be the one leaving with his hand raised.  If Miller is able to score multiple takedowns and keep the fight on the ground for any period of time, he will likely pull off what most will view as a significant upset.  

Either way, this should be a very entertaining fight.

SILVA MAKES GOOD ON PROMISE – “THE AXE MURDERER” IS BACK

Many people thought Wanderlei Silva was a shot fighter back in July after he lost to Chris Leben by savage knockout in just 27 seconds. Silva claimed it was just part of the game. Put two homerun hitters in the cage and someone is bound to get knocked out. Who cares if it takes 27 or 627 seconds?

Silva promised that “The Axe Murderer” would return against mixed martial arts’ version of a Street Fighter character, Cung Le. The San Shou great has the most diverse arsenal of strikes in the history of the sport—bar none, including Anderson Silva.

Le put those strikes on full display against Silva, particularly in the first round. He badly rocked the former PRIDE champion with a spinning backfist thrown immediately after a wheel kick, something that nobody does. But Silva survived.

Then, in the second round, with Le breathing out of a wide open mouth, Silva turned up the heat. He went into full berserker mode, attacking Le with reckless abandon. He turned what had been a kicking display by Le into pure chaos, and Le had no answers.

The knockout instantly resurrected Silva as a middleweight contender. Le has once lost before in MMA, but never like that. His face was a train wreck courtesy of a series of vintage Silva knee strikes and two-fisted bombs.

This was really the first time since coming to the UFC that Silva has closely resembled the man who twice crushed Rampage in PRIDE. It was definitely the defining moment of his UFC career to date, one that definitely quashed any talk among his critics about retirement.

Welcome back, Wandy. Welcome back.

FABER EARNS RUBBER MATCH WITH CRUZ

Urijah Faber is one bad dude. The former WEC Featherweight Champion brutally stopped ultra-tough Brian Bowles at 1:27 of the second round to earn his third trip to the dance floor with UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz.

Cruz defeated Faber by unanimous decision back in July. Many thought Faber did enough to justify the decision win. The judges didn’t.

Faber didn’t have to rely on the judges when he first fought Cruz back in 2007. He choked out the current champion in defense of his WEC featherweight championship. The entire fight lasted 98 seconds.

The pair will meet for the third time in 2012. Cruz has the perfect style to give Faber fits because he has tremendous takedown defense and fantastically awkward standup. But Faber knows he can win the fight, if he doesn’t let Cruz’s awkwardness cause him to hesitate on the feet. He needs to let his hands go, just like he did against Bowles. In fact, I think this was the perfect fight to prepare Faber for the rubber match.

KAMPMANN REMAINS MMA’S RODNEY DANGERFIELD

What in the world does Martin Kampmann have to do in order to get even a modicum of respect from the judges? I don’t know what the judge who scored the bout 29-28 for Rick Story was watching. I can see an argument for giving Story the first round. I didn’t. But I can see where some people could have sided with the former collegiate wrestler. Nonetheless, there is no plausible argument for scoring either of the second two rounds for Story. None whatsoever.

The bout is yet another in a year-long run of tough luck. Many thought Kampmann did enough to defeat Jake Shields in October 2010. He lost by split decision. He then stalemated Diego Sanchez’s wrestling and out struck him by a comfortable margin in his next bout, only to somehow lose by unanimous decision.

The look on Kampmann’s face was priceless when Bruce Buffer read the first score: 29-28 Story. Resignation blanketed his body. He was convinced that he was about to be robbed yet again. Luckily for him, the other two judges got it right.

Kampmann’s last three fights perfectly illustrate why White always urges fighters not to leave the outcome in the hands of the judges. Kampmann should probably start focusing on stopping opponents, if he wants to steer clear from controversy going forward because his style, while extremely effective, obviously doesn’t appeal to many judges, for some unknown reason.

BONNAR WINS WITH HIS HEAD, NOT HIS HEART

Stephan Bonnar will forever be linked to Forrest Griffin for their 2005 Fight of the Century. On that night, Bonnar proved to the world that he was one of the most courageous, committed fighters in the sport. He walked through the fires of hell trying to find a way to win against Griffin. It wasn’t to be, but that fight helped propel mixed martial arts to where it is today, in terms of main stream appeal.

Since that night, Bonnar has repeatedly engaged in rock’em, sock’em robots-type battles. He stands and slugs, often to his own detriment and certainly with no regard to his personal safety or career longevity. The one notable exception was when he faced crazy slugger James Irvin two fights after his 2005 bout with Griffin. Knowing that he was overmatched on the feet, Bonnar used ground skills learned from the legendary Carlson Gracie to take the fight to the ground, control the action and submit his foe.

Bonnar did the same thing to Kyle Kingsbury on Saturday night, minus the submission. It was, in my opinion, Bonnar’s most impressive victory in the UFC. He could have easily reverted to his old slugfest ways. The crowd was screaming for that. Heck, I was waiting for it. But Kingsbury had a shot at beating him in that type of a fight because he has show-stopping power in his strikes. Kingsbury had no shot at all at defeating Bonnar from his back, so that is precisely where Bonnar put him for three rounds.

It was a brilliant game plan and even better execution. It was also proof that Bonnar remains a highly skilled mixed martial artist who can do some damage in the 205-pound division, if he continues fighting with his head, as much as he fights with his heart.

BADER AVOIDS THE DEADLY THREE IN A ROW

Ryan Bader knew that his bout with Jason Brilz was a major turning point in his career. After 13 consecutive wins to start his career, Bader was on the verge of legitimate title contender status when he ran into Jon Jones back in February. The former Arizona State University wrestling star suffered his first career loss against Jones. He was dominated in every aspect of the game on that night.

Five months later, he stepped into the Octagon to face former 205-pound champion Tito Ortiz. It was a bout that many believed would serve as Ortiz’s UFC swan song. Bader was a younger, more powerful version of Ortiz. A win over the former champion would erase the memory of his first career loss.

It wasn’t to be. Ortiz scored a dramatic submission win in less than two minutes, after rocking his foe with a right hand seemingly out of nowhere.

With back-to-back losses on his resume, Bader was in a bad spot heading into Saturday night’s bout with Brilz. Another loss would temporarily remove him from relevance in the light heavyweight division and almost surely require a fight or two in the sport’s smaller shows to try and earn his way back onto the UFC roster. That is serious pressure for any fighter.

Bader responded with the most dominant performance of his UFC career. It took him only 77 seconds to stop Brilz with a thunderous right hand. That beat his personal UFC knockout record by 61 seconds. Not a bad time to come up with a career-best effort.

139Anyone who missed UFC 139 needs to grab his or her remote control, flip to the pay-per-view channels and buy the replay. Don’t pass go. Don’t collect $200. Do grab a bowl of popcorn, nachos, a dozen hot wings, or whatever your favorite fight food is and get ready to watch one heck of a fight card.

Any time UFC President Dana White awards four Fight of the Night checks, you know it was a great night of mixed martial arts, and that is precisely what happened on Saturday night. Wanderlei Silva’s dramatic knockout victory of Cung Le, after Le easily controlled the first round, was a feel good moment for fans who have followed the career of the “Axe Murderer” over the last 15 years.  And Dan Henderson’s unanimous decision victory was….well…

THE BEST FIVE-ROUND FIGHT I’VE EVER SEEN

I’ve watched hundreds of UFC fights over the years. I can say without any hesitation at all that the epic war between Dan Henderson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was the best five round fight that I’ve ever witnessed—an amazing testament to the human spirit.

Henderson easily won the first three rounds, almost stopping Shogun on a couple of occasions. I don’t think anyone would have complained if the referee would have waved off the action. But he didn’t. And Shogun came back strong.

The Brazilian won the championship rounds as easily as Hendo won the first three. He dominated Hendo with powerful strikes, takedowns and masterful ground game. I’m sure someone has been mounted more times in a single round in UFC history. But I cannot recall it happening. Shogun mounted Hendo so many times that I lost count at five.

For the record, I scored the fight 47-47, giving the first three to Hendo 10-9, the fourth to Shogun 10-9 and the final to Shogun 10-8. It was a shame that either man had to walk away with a loss. But this sort of thrilling back-and-forth affair was worth its weight in gold, so nobody can complain about the judges’ decision, even if they scored it for Shogun.

I’m sure both Hendo and Shogun will cringe when they read this, but I think they need to run it back, immediately. They will cringe because Saturday had to be the most physically painful and exhausting fight of their respective careers.

Look, Rashad Evans deserves the winner of Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida, assuming he is healthy enough to fight no later than April. He earned the right to fight for the title with his wins over Thiago Silva, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Tito Ortiz. Thus, Hendo needs an opponent, while he waits for Evans and the winner of Jones-Machida to play itself out. What better opponent than the man that just served as his dance partner in the greatest five round fight that I’ve ever witnessed.

Let’s run it back.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT OR MIDDLEWEIGHT?

205 or 185. That is the question.

Henderson has always been something of an enigma in mixed martial arts. While most fighters travel down in weight in search of career longevity and greater success, Hendo prefers to do the exact opposite. The former two-division PRIDE champion knows that he can make 185 pounds any time that he wants to. He knows that he is fighting against guys closer to his natural size when he competes in the middleweight division. Yet, after a lackluster effort against Jake Shields at 185 pounds back in April of last year, Hendo decided to do away with cutting weight and return to competing at his walking around weight, which meant locking horns with opponents who often outweigh him by 15 or 20 pounds come fight time.

As odd as it seems, the numbers suggest that Hendo performs better against bigger guys. Since March 2008, he is 2-2 as middleweight, compared to 5-0 in bouts outside the middleweight division. That is a telling statistic, one that fits comfortably with Hendo’s disdain of cutting weight at this point in his illustrious career.

Absent a bout with Anderson Silva, which is something Hendo would never turn down, it seems likely that his short-term future in the UFC will be in the promotion’s glamour division. Hendo didn’t waste any time making his intentions clear, either. He posted on his Twitter account on the way to the hospital that he wanted his next bout to be against the winner of next month’s 205-pound championship bout between Jones and Machida.

For what it is worth, I think light heavy is the right way to go for the Team Quest star. He appears more explosive at 205 pounds, and his gas tank certainly appears to be deeper when he doesn’t have to severely restrict his caloric intake and sweat out 10 or 15 pounds of water in the days leading up to a fight. Plus, I just don’t see many middleweight fights piquing Hendo’s interest at this point in his career, aside from a second bout with Silva.

DESPITE THE LOSS, SHOGUN IS FAR FROM A LOSER

I have watched every single one of Shogun’s fights since he made his PRIDE debut back on October 5, 2003. Many of them twice or more.

Suffice to say, I thought I had basically seen everything that Shogun had to offer as a fighter before he stepped into the Octagon to face Hendo. Boy, was I wrong.

It is no big secret that Shogun is one of the best in the world at 205 pounds. It is even less of a secret that this guy is one of the most fearsome finishers in the sport. What I didn’t know was that his fighting spirit and courage probably exceed his fighting skill.

I didn’t think anyone in the 205-pound division, other than Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonnar, fit that bill. Shogun’s effort in the face of extreme adversity was a career-defining moment for him. I don’t know if he will ever live up to the great hype that surrounded him during his PRIDE days, but I do know that a fighter with his level of skills and heart can never be counted out in any situation.

I’m sure Shogun is bitterly disappointed after coming up short on Saturday night. But I firmly believe that there was no real loser in that fight. I don’t think Shogun’s fighting star has ever been any brighter than it is right now due to his epic effort against Hendo.

Check back Tuesday for more musings on the rest of last Saturday’s unforgettable UFC 139 card…

In July 2009, I wrote the following words:

“He might not admit it publicly, but Dan Henderson knows that he is in the twilight of his illustrious fighting career.  

The former two-division PRIDE champion is just a few short weeks from his 39th birthday, an age that basically qualifies him for the 4:30 p.m. senior citizen dinner discounts in the UFC chow line.  He remains one of the fiercest competitors in the game, as evidenced by his hard-fought, split decision win over former 185-lb champion Rich Franklin back in January.  His days at the top are numbered, however.

Nobody knows when Hendo will finally succumb to Father Time.  His effort against Franklin suggests that he is no less spry today than he was when he scored a dramatic knockout win over Wanderlei Silva to become the first man to ever simultaneously hold titles in two PRIDE weight divisions.   No matter, Father Time is going to rear his ugly head in Hendo’s corner sooner rather than later.

When it happens, it will be an overnight phenomenon, not a gradual slide.  The fighter who happens to be standing opposite him on that fateful night should be able to score a career-defining win.“

Hendo was preparing to face top UFC middleweight Michael Bisping at the time. Many thought that Bisping would use the former two-time US Olympian as a stepping stone to future greatness. Instead, Hendo was in top form, scoring one of the most jaw-dropping knockouts of the year.

Fast forward the clock 28 months. Hendo is now 41 years young. But he appears to be at the absolute peak of his career. In fact, the former champion won three of four fights since annihilating Bisping and temporarily leaving the UFC, including three in a row that culminated in a career-defining knockout win over heavyweight great Fedor Emelianenko.

On Saturday night, Hendo makes his UFC return after 28 months away. He will face Mauricio “Shogun” Rua to determine where he stands in the 205-pound pecking order. Champion Jon Jones is set to defend his title against Lyoto Machida on December 10. After that, it is anyone’s guess. Rashad Evans appears to be a frontrunner for “next in line” status. But the winner of Hendo-Shogun can certainly jump to the front of the line with the right performance.

If Shogun wants to succeed where so many others have recently failed, then he needs to stay true to his Chute Boxe Academy ways and turn this thing into an all-out brawl.

Shogun is anything but a measured, tactical standup fighter. I’ll concede that he was precisely that in his two bouts with Lyoto Machida, but that was an aberration for the former champion. He is, and likely always will be, at his best when he employs a berserker style because it is part of his fighting DNA.
That latter part is the big key to victory for Shogun. The Brazilian is a pressure-first fighter. Hendo is used to being the stalker, not the stalked. He has never truly seemed comfortable when forced to engage in a real slugfest.

Shogun, on the other hand, thrives during apparent chaos. It is like second nature to him, after growing up as a fighter in the vaunted Chute Boxe Academy’s full-speed sparring sessions. The world slows down to Shogun during those moments. He is never out of control, calmly attacking and defending during what seem to be frenzied moments to everyone else. He has to stay mindful of Hendo’s right hand because he has enough stopping power in that punch to knockout Shogun or anyone else. Beyond that strike, Shogun enjoys a healthy advantage on the feet, but that one strike could be the difference in this bout.

Hendo’s entire game revolves around landing his big right hand. That is a shame because this guy is one of the best wrestlers in the history of the sport. And wrestling is one of the best tools to use when trying to win a fight.

Hendo would be well served to remember that takedowns are what won him the closely contested battle with Rich Franklin in his penultimate UFC bout before his 28-month hiatus.  Takedowns, or the threat of takedowns, were a major reason why Shogun got dominated by Jones and defeated in his first bout with Forrest Griffin. Hendo is a much better wrestler than Jones or Griffin, so there is little reason to think that he will struggle to control Shogun if he relies on his wrestling game.

Focusing on takedowns may seem counterintuitive because Shogun is a submission wizard. Some might mistakenly believe that he would be comfortable fighting on his back against Hendo. No chance. Henderson’s submission defense is nothing less than stellar, until he gets winded, so he should be able to control Shogun on the ground and hammer away with some of that patented Team Quest ground and pound without much worry, until late in the fight.  

Yet, Hendo almost always eschews his wrestling skills in favor of a stalk and bomb strategy. He does that in basically every fight. The former multiple-division PRIDE champion has a bad habit of loading up with his always-coiled right hand and throwing little else.  He should disguise it with jabs, lead left hooks and leg kicks–anything to make Shogun momentarily forget about his deadliest weapon.  

But he probably won’t do any of that. He really didn’t do much of that stuff in his last two fights against Fedor and Rafael Cavalcante. He just bombed away with his right hand again and again. Sure, he threw other strikes from time to time, but none were designed to bring the fight to an instant end, and none of them will likely cause Shogun any grief. Hendo doesn’t care. He knows that as soon as he lands his right hand anywhere close to its mark, the fight will be over. Thus, he will stalk and bomb on Saturday night. Trust me.

Conventional wisdom suggests that this is Shogun’s fight to lose. He is the younger, faster, stronger fighter.  He is also one of the deadliest standup fighters in the sport, across all divisions. Yet, Hendo appears to have found the Fountain of Youth. His win over Fedor proved that he remains one of the best fighters in the world, pound for pound. My heart, therefore, thinks that Hendo will pull it out.

Then again, if Father Time appears in Hendo’s dressing room prior to the fight, which is going to happen sooner, rather than later, then Shogun might just get that knockout win that he so desperately needs to catapult himself back into title contention.

QUICK FACTS

Dan Henderson
•    28-8 overall
•    41 years old
•    4-1 in last 5 fights; riding 3 straight wins
•    7-3 in last 10
•    46.4% of wins by KO/TKO (13 out of 28)
•    46.4% of wins by decision (13 out of 28)
•    7.2% of wins by submission (2 out of 28)
•    Former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion
•    Former PRIDE Middleweight Champion (205 lbs)
•    Former PRIDE Welterweight Champion (183 lbs)
•    Former PRIDE Welterweight Grand Prix Champion
•    Only man to simultaneously hold titles in two weight classes in a major promotion (PRIDE Middleweight and Welterweight)
•    UFC Fight of the Night against Anderson Silva
•    UFC Knockout of the Night against Michael Bisping
•    8-6 against current or former champions
•    Current layoff is 142 days
•    Longest career layoff is 357 days

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
•    20-5 professional record
•    29 years old (turns 30 on November 25)
•    3-2 in last 5 fights
•    7-3 in last 10 fights
•    6-4 against current or former UFC champions
•    85.0% of wins by KO/TKO (17 out of 20)
•    10.0% of wins by decision (2 out of 20)
•    5.0% of wins by submission (1 out of 20)
•    Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    Former PRIDE Middleweight (205 lb) Grand Prix Champion
•    Knockout of the Night twice (Machida and Liddell)
•    Fight of the Night against Mark Coleman
•    Current layoff is 114 days
•    Longest UFC or PRIDE layoff is 483 days

Undefeated as a professional mixed martial artist. 88.9% of his wins are by knockout. And he is the holder of the sport’s most prized possession – the UFC heavyweight championship.

Cain Velasquez is, without question, the baddest man on the planet. He holds that distinction for now, at least.

On Saturday night, Velasquez will make the first defense of his heavyweight crown against the man many think is perfectly suited to dethrone him, Junior dos Santos. It is a marquee matchup between fighters who have the potential to make an unforgettable fight together.

We broke down the challenger’s keys to victory yesterday. Now, it’s time to focus on the champion.

Velasquez is a former elite-level collegiate wrestler. Dos Santos is likely the division’s best wrestler. Many will instantly assume, therefore, that the champion needs to focus on takedowns. I disagree.

Velasquez would be well served putting the challenger on the ground and pounding away. No doubt about that. But getting the Brazilian down is a monumental task. Bum rushing him at the opening bell won’t work. Using feints or haphazard strikes as an opening to change levels for a single-leg probably won’t work well, either. Dos Santos expects him to do just that, so he will be well prepared.

That is why I believe Velasquez needs to come out looking to lay some wood on the feet. He needs to beat dos Santos at what he does best, and that is when the door will open for takedowns.

The key to successfully laying wood on the feet against dos Santos begins and ends with leg kicks. That is something Velasquez does as well as just about anyone in the division – Pat Barry excepted.

The champion uses a full hip turn when he fires right kicks to an opponent’s lead leg and body. As a result, his kicks land with tremendous speed and power. Dos Santos’ stance, which employs a wide base, shoulders almost perpendicular to his foe and weight sitting down, is well suited to firing savage right hands at absolute full force. But it is not great for checking leg kicks.

Velasquez can take advantage of that by using leg kicks like dos Santos uses his jab, both to set the range and exact damage. After landing a couple of kicks, the challenger will be more focused on checking them, which means leading more with his fists and finishing combinations with a hard kick to the lead leg. Even the best kickboxers in the world struggle to effectively defend leg kicks thrown at the end of fistic combinations. And Velasquez is masterful at finishing up combinations with leg kicks.

A series of fast, hard leg kicks will rapidly sap dos Santos of his power because he won’t be able to fully plant and fire onto his left side. A damaged lead leg also greatly reduces lateral movement and the ability to slip punches, particularly since dos Santos prefers to avoid flying fists by shuffling straight back.

Of course, Velasquez needs to be mindful of the challenger’s massive power. Rushing in foolishly, even if dos Santos is limping on one leg, is a recipe for disaster. Velasquez knows that. He won’t make that mistake. He will, instead, attack behind combinations, thus forcing dos Santos to continue defending, rather than planting to return full-force fire.
But that isn’t the end of the analysis. There is also a standup tendency that the champion should be able to take advantage of.

Dos Santos has a habit of throwing jabs and lead right hands to the body. They are almost always thrown in isolation, though sometimes he will shoeshine with a second or third body shot. I have not yet witnessed dos Santos following up those body shots with a shot to the head in the same salvo of punches.

Body shots are probably the most underutilized punches in MMA. But leading with them is a very dangerous proposition. It is almost always safer to finish a combination with a shot to the body because an opponent is busy defending his head. Leading to the body doesn’t typically produce the same “cover up” reaction as do shots to the head. An opponent, therefore, is more often in prime position to counter upstairs.

Velasquez has excellent hand speed and tremendous reflexes. Knowing Javier Mendez, I’m sure they worked extensively in camp on countering dos Santos’ tendency to lead to the body. If it is a lead right, Velasquez should instantly uncork a left hook. If his foe leads with a jab to the body, the champion should let his right hand go. In all instances, Velasquez’s counters should be in the form of punches in bunches.

However the fight unfolds, Velasquez should remain aggressively patient. He is at his best when he is coming forward pressing the action. But Velasquez should not feel any urgency to try and win the fight in the early rounds because this guy has a gas tank that would make the Energizer Bunny salivate. He is legendary for his ability to fight with the pace of a welterweight seemingly without ever getting tired. We don’t know if the challenger’s gas tank is similarly deep. That means drag him into the deep end of the championship rounds and see if he can swim.

Of course, all that is designed to create an advantage for Velasquez on the feet so that he can eventually get the fight to the ground, which is where dos Santos, despite his brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under the Nogueira brothers, is at his least dangerous.

Don’t get me wrong, Velasquez can win this fight by knockout. Anyone doubting that statement needs to pull up his fight against Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. But the safest route to victory against an apex predator like dos Santos is to put him on his back and keep him there. As mentioned, dos Santos knows the takedowns are coming, so Velasquez likely needs to get loose on the feet before he will be able to get the fight to the ground.

The question, of course, is does Velasquez really have the standup to best dos Santos? We will all find out soon enough.

QUICK FACTS

Cain Velasquez
•    29 years old
•    6’1, 240 lbs
•    77-inch reach
•    9-0 overall (7-0 UFC)
•    88.9% of wins by KO/TKO
•    11.1% of wins by decision
•    No career submissions
•    Knockout of the Night in 3 of 7 UFC fights
•    Current layoff is 385 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 490 days