Author: By Michael DiSanto

Saturday night marks the beginning of a new era for mixed martial arts.

The UFC will make its debut on broadcast television, filling the screen on the same channel that broadcasts the World Series, the Super Bowl and, of course, American Idol. It will be a game-changing moment for the sport’s spotlight promotion because millions of people who would not otherwise have access to a live UFC fight will have the opportunity to tune in and form a first impression of the sport.

There will be just a single fight shown on Fox this Saturday night, so virgin viewers will have just one opportunity to react to a sport that has grown from virtual anonymity to pay-per-view juggernaut. That created incredible pressure on UFC head honcho Dana White to book a marquee fight that was sure to thrill.

Enter UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez and the clear number one challenger, Junior dos Santos, a man many believe to be destined for gold. It is a marquee matchup from every angle. The sport’s biggest prize is on the line. Neither man has ever lost inside the Octagon. Their styles suggest a barnburner that should end in spectacular fashion. It is the perfect recipe for success.

Suffice to say, if the fight lives up to its potential, it should catapult the UFC to never before seen heights of popularity. And the winner could very well turn into a mainstream sports superstar. Translation: fame and fortune.

I know. Lots of hype. But it isn’t hyperbole. It is reality.

There is little doubt that the massive stage adds to the pressure that both fighters will face heading into the fight. Pressure often leads to hesitation, which, in turn, leads to poor performance. Dos Santos will have to guard against that, if he wants to take the title, because “Cigano” needs to be active and aggressive. That and land his big right uppercut, which is the single biggest key to victory for the challenger.

Dos Santos is probably the best boxer in the heavyweight division. He stands in traditional boxing style, with his legs far apart and his body almost perpendicular to his foe. That allows him to generate tremendous power in his shots because he can really lean into his right hand and fully rotate his hips with his left hook. It also gives him the proper foundation for his most effective weapon – the right uppercut.

“Cigano” has a right uppercut that would make heavyweight boxing champion Wladimir Klitschko green with envy. And he uses it regularly in bouts, both as the second part of a two-piece combination and also as a lead. If he connects cleanly, it could mean good night for Velasquez.

Make no mistake about it. Dos Santos can turn out the lights with a variety of strikes. But the uppercut should be particularly effective against Velasquez. The question is how to go about landing it.

The first, and most obvious, way is to fire it off the heels of a left hand. The Brazilian bomber has one of the best jabs in the division. He snaps it like a professional boxer, and unlike with most boxers, it is jackhammer that causes very real damage, rather than just serving as a range finder.

Dos Santos can jab and quickly fire a right uppercut up the middle. He can also double up on the jab or throw one of his slick jab-left hook combinations before immediately cleaning up with his money punch. Those combinations should be particularly effective because the champion does not retreat straight back in the face of incoming fire, like most mixed martial artists. He instead stays in the pocket and moves his head and upper body like a pendulum to slip shots.

Like a pendulum, Velasquez returns to center after slipping a shot. Thus, if the jab, double jab or jab-left hook miss, he could very well be front and center by the time the uppercut arrives.

But that isn’t the end of the challenger’s options with his favorite strike. He can also lead with the punch. As crazy as it sounds, dos Santos is extremely effective leading with his right uppercut. Most fighters don’t try that technique because it requires elite hand speed. Otherwise, it is fairly easy to counter by slipping and countering, particularly with a left hook, since the right side of dos Santos’ head will be completely exposed.

Of course, dos Santos possesses elite hand speed, so he can effectively lead with a right uppercut without too much concern. He landed that punch several times in his last two bouts, both wins, over Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson. He can land it against Velasquez.

The one time that he may want to forget the right uppercut is when he is timing a Velasquez kick.  In that instance, he is better served firing his right straight down the middle.

Velasquez is an extremely slick kickboxer, with very few tell signs associated with his deep arsenal of strikes. The one notable exception is when he throws a left kick, whether to the inside of his opponent’s lead leg, body or head. The American Kickboxing Academy superstar always steps forward with his right foot before firing a kick with his left leg in order to set his hips to generate speed and power with the strike.

It is a quick shuffle step. But he does it every time. He doesn’t fire any other strike, other than a left kick, when he shuffle steps forward with his right foot.

Dos Santos can try to time Velasquez by stepping in and firing the right hand down the middle the second he sees the champion shuffle stepping forward. He must do it instantly in order to arrive at the target first. And he had better hope that Velasquez isn’t uncorking a high kick, because things could get ugly in that instance.

Nevertheless, the risk is worth the reward. Velasquez is a very durable, high-energy fighter that can go for days. It is unlikely that dos Santos will outlast Velasquez in a grueling five-round war, so he should be thinking stoppage within the first three rounds. That is a very reasonable outcome, too. The challenger is a first-order power puncher, and some question the durability of Velasquez’s chin.

Remember, Cheick Kongo dropped him repeatedly in their 2009 bout. None of those shots put Velasquez out. He popped right up and kept coming, though that doesn’t change the fact that he was dropped several times by a guy that some cognoscenti believe has vastly overrated punching power.

I’m not sure if Kongo’s power is overrated. I am certain, however, that dos Santos carries at least as much dynamite in his fists. Probably more.

Defensively, dos Santos needs to always be mindful of defending the takedown. Velasquez is a former two-time Division I All American collegiate wrestler. His wrestling chops are so strong that he was able to take down Brock Lesnar in his last bout, something very few people in the world can do.

He can remain in good position to defend the takedown by not over committing on his power punches. Selling out with haymakers is the best way to open the door for a takedown. Dos Santos should keep a solid base with his feet and focus on throwing fast, not necessarily hard, punches. If he does that, then he can rely on his biggest strength, his boxing skills, in an attempt to win the fight.

The word “attempt” was purposefully chosen to suggest that Velasquez is the rightful favorite heading into the matchup, albeit by the slightest of margins. Dos Santos is a seriously live underdog, though. It actually wouldn’t surprise me to see the betting lines swing in the other direction by fight night. He may not have more tools to use in an attempt to win the fight, but the tool he likes to use (read: his fists) might just be the best in the division.

QUICK FACTS

Junior “Cigano” dos Santos
•    27 years old
•    77-inch reach
•    13-1 overall (7-0 UFC)
•    8-fight winning streak
•    Hasn’t lost since November 10, 2007
•    69.2% of wins ended by strikes (9 of 13)
•    15.4% of wins by submission, other than from strikes (2 out of 13)
•    15.4% of wins by decision (2 of 13)
•    Last 2 fights went the distance
•    57.1% of UFC fights ended in the first round
•    Current layoff is 154 days
•    Career long layoff is 308 days
•    Knockout of the Night twice

Mark Munoz is another in a long line of decorated collegiate wrestlers to find success in the UFC. And he just so happens to be part of a growing number of those former collegiate wrestlers who has fallen in love with the standup part of mixed martial arts.

It’s not a big surprise that he loves standing and banging with opponents. The “Filipino Wrecking Machine” happens to posses legitimate lights out power in his right hand. That phrase is used a lot, often in hyperbolic fashion. But it is absolutely applicable to Munoz. Just ask Kendall Grove or CB Dollaway, both of whom basically got stopped with a single shot.

As a result, the former Oklahoma State University star has abandoned his wrestling for long stretches of his recent fights. He instead comes out headhunting with vicious looping bombs, knowing that if he can just land one, the fight will come to an abrupt, thrilling conclusion.

Fans love that style of fighting. But there is only one problem. Chris Leben lives for that style of fighting, and he is Munoz’s opponent on Saturday in the main event of UFC 138 in Birmingham, England.

There is nobody in the division, possibly nobody in the UFC, who loves an all-out firefight more than Leben. This guy is the personification of a throwback fighter. His game plan for each and every fight is the same. Take the center of the cage. Plant his feet. Fire away with both hands with little regard for his personal safety until someone falls down.

The formerly labeled “Cat Smasher” can get away with that style of fighting for two reasons. First and foremost, he has what many believe to be the sturdiest chin in the division. This guy has engaged in more back-and-forth rock’em, sock’em robots fights than anyone at 185 pounds, and he has only suffered two losses by knockout—one to Anderson Silva and one to Brian Stann. That speaks volumes about his durability.

Second, Leben has every bit as much show-stopping power in his punches as Munoz or anyone else. The southpaw doesn’t need to wind up to bomb out an opponent. He is an equal opportunity slugger—short, compact concussive blows and wild haymakers. Either one can bring a fight to a close in an instant. Just ask Wanderlei Silva.

I know Munoz is red hot right now, with three straight wins. I don’t care. If this guy decides to throw caution to the wind and get into a firefight with Leben, he is going to get knocked out—period.

Don’t get me wrong. Munoz has the power to become the third man to score a knockout win over Leben. That is certainly a possible outcome. But it is an extremely unlikely one, if the fight is fought in a phone booth. It is a more likely outcome, if Munoz keeps on the outside and darts in and out with bombs, always threatening the takedown.

Of course, Leben has terrific takedown defense. Few fighters have been successful taking him down with traditional single-leg or double-leg takedowns. That is probably due to the years he spent training on a daily basis at Team Quest with otherworldly MMA wrestlers like Randy Couture, Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland.

Leben also has a vastly underrated ground game, particularly from his guard. He is effective at defending from his back, and he also has a nice range of submissions from that position. But those are risks that Munoz must take, if he wants to maximize his chances at winning.

That means convincing Leben that he is going to stand and trade, and then quickly changing levels to look for a takedown once his foe uncorks one of those deadly left hands. That is easier said than done because Leben fights with a pressure-first, all-offense style that forces his opponents to take a stand and fight, even if they don’t want to.

It’s the old Mike Tyson adage: “everyone has a game plan until they hit.” That applies to fighting Leben. Everyone has a game plan to stick and move until they experience his non-stop pressure.

That seems like a simplistic breakdown of the fight—one heavy on rhetoric and light on Xs and Os.  But this fight isn’t about intricate Xs and Os.  It’s about Mark Munoz trying to find a way to take Leben to the ground without getting suckered into a slugfest, something he loves to do himself.  It’s about Leben firing right down the middle with malice aforethought the second he sees Munoz set his hips to fire one of those long, looping overhand rights.  

It really is that simple. Sure, Munoz needs to focus on circling to his left to avoid walking into Leben’s best weapon. True, Leben needs to keep his weight neutral in his stance so that he can quickly sprawl and brawl when Munoz looks for takedowns. Granted, both men want to win the battle of the feet, jockeying to keep their lead foot on the outside of the other man’s lead foot to maintain the optimal throwing lane.

But those are details. This fight will largely be fought on instinct once one of the pair lands a bomb, which is almost certain to happen within the first minute of the fight.  

I’m not sure who is going to win this one. Some might suggest that Munoz has the perfect style to beat Leben due to his tremendous wrestling base. Others will astutely note that, if Demian Maia was able to hurt Munoz with a single right hand, Leben will certainly stop him. Both statements ring true, in my opinion.

All I know is that this matchup promises one thing: a fan-friendly bout.

QUICK FACTS

Chris Leben
•    31 years old
•    5’11, 185 lbs
•    22-7 overall (12-6 UFC)
•    4-1 in last 5
•    6-4 in last 10
•    Won last fight
•    0-1 in bouts taking place outside the United States
•    5 post-fight awards (Knockout of the Night 3 times; Fight of the Night twice)
•    Current layoff is 126 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 315 days

Mark Munoz
•    33 years old
•    6’0, 185 lbs
•    11-2 overall (6-2 UFC)
•    5-1 in last 5
•    8-2 in last 10
•    Currently riding a 3-fight winning streak (has two 3-fight winning streaks in UFC career)
•    2-0 in bouts outside the US
•    Fight of the Night once
•    Current layoff is 147 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 227 days

WELCOME BACK, NICK

Nick Diaz certainly knows how to return to the limelight. His win over BJ Penn on Saturday night was the single most impressive performance of his career by leaps and bounds. Not only did he put his ethereal fighting skills on display in front of millions of fans, proving that he deserves to be regarded as one of the very best in the sport, pound for pound. He also showed tremendous heart and courage by surviving a very rocky first round, one that left him bloodied and swollen as he walked back to his corner regroup for the rest of the fight.

I almost always watch the fights with my brother, Tony. I turned to him after the first round and remarked that Diaz was getting a rude reminder that the UFC is on a whole different level than any other mixed martial arts promotion in the world. His response surprised me a bit, but it was absolutely insightful.

“Penn can’t keep this up for three rounds,” he said. “The pressure will get to him. Mark my words.”

Bingo.

Diaz didn’t really do anything differently in the second and third rounds, other than remind “The Prodigy” that he could keep up his pace of crisp, non-stop punching for as long as he wanted. The pressure of having to deal with a Diaz hammering away with an unyielding attack is both mentally and physically exhausting. Penn learned that the hard, painful way.

Nobody, not even former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida, has ever handed Penn a loss like that. He has never been dominated on his feet in his entire career. Machida outpointed him, but at no point in their fight did Penn seem out of his league. Frankie Edgar also outpointed him on the feet, but again, it wasn’t a brutal beating by any stretch of the imagination.

Penn looked like he got jumped by half a dozen baseball bat-wielding gang members after the fight. That is what Diaz can do to a fighter with his two fists. Sure, he has knees, elbows and kicks in his arsenal, too, but Diaz overwhelmingly prefers to box, and he put on a virtuoso boxing performance against Penn on Saturday night, one that put the entire division on notice that Diaz is the real deal.

This was the single most impressive return to the UFC since Penn returned to dethrone Matt Hughes for the 170-pound championship after his absence from the organization.

Actually, I will take it one step further. Considering the hype and what was at stake, that was the best fight that I’ve seen this year—period.

GSP-DIAZ IN FEBRUARY AN EVEN BIGGER EVENT NOW

Say what you will about Diaz’s bad boy persona. Getting into Penn’s face during the weigh-ins. Yelling “I won that s**t” over and over again after pounding Penn into retirement. And proclaiming that Georges St-Pierre pulled out of his fight with Carlos Condit because he is scared, not injured. All those are polarizing moments for a fighter. I’m sure volumes of UFC fans, particularly those who follow the promotion, not necessarily the sport as a whole, and thus haven’t been watching Diaz over the past five years, developed a very real distaste for the Stockton native at UFC 137.  Others probably grew to love the sport’s biggest rebel. But everyone now knows with absolute certainty that Diaz is one bad dude, and he has a very legitimate shot at dethroning GSP.

GSP-Diaz was supposed to be the main event at UFC 137. But after Diaz’s amazing performance against Penn, as well as his venom-laden comments about GSP after the fight and the champion’s equal desire to face his toughest test, convinced UFC President Dana White to drop another surprise on the fans. White announced at the post-fight presser that Carlos Condit, the man who was supposed to take Diaz’s place as GSP’s next opponent, will step aside so that GSP and Diaz can settle their score on Super Bowl weekend.

Mark my words. GSP-Diaz, the remix, will sell out in record time, and the hype surrounding the fight is so much greater now. The lore of Nick Diaz is far, far bigger. And GSP-Diaz just became a bigger, more intriguing fight. Period.

MAKE ROOM IN THE HALL OF FAME, IF THIS IS TRULY THE END

Penn announced to the world moments after his loss to Diaz that he was hanging up the gloves. The words weren’t a surprise. It is far more damaging to a fighter’s psyche to suffer a sustained, three-round beating than to lose by quick, brutal knockout. The latter can be explained by a mistake. The former makes one question whether he still belongs in the sport.

I’m sure Penn’s words were largely driven by the emotion of the moment. He never dreamed the fight would unfold the way it did—more precisely, the way the second and third round went. Again, nobody has ever battered him like that.

Still, Penn has often talked about retirement, causing critics to question if his heart is still in the game. It is a legitimate question. At 32, Penn is financially secure. Plus, his comment about not wanting to let his children see him on the wrong end of a beating strums the heartstrings of every father.

It would not surprise me at all, if this truly is the end for Penn. For what it is worth, I think he should retire if he no longer has the fire burning white hot in his belly. But if that fire returns, Penn should return. He is, and will always be, one of the greatest fighters to ever step in the Octagon. It has been a privilege and an honor to watch him compete, since he debuted in the UFC back in 2001.

I have not seen any deterioration in his skills. Fans must not forget that this is the same man who fought Jon Fitch to a draw back in February. I firmly believe that Penn deserved the nod that night. There was no way the third round was a 10-8 round. None whatsoever. I digress.

Penn’s problem isn’t deteriorating skills. His size is his biggest enemy at 170 pounds. It is tough fighting bigger, stronger guys. I think he should return to action and drop back down to 155. Eliminate Edgar from the picture and Penn likely regains the title he held with such dominance.

But again, if this is, indeed, the end, the world needs to take a moment to celebrate just how great BJ Penn is as a fighter. Remember that he is one of only two men (Randy Couture being the other) to win titles in two different UFC weight classes. He also did the perceived impossible when he moved up from lightweight to dethrone Matt Hughes, a man viewed at the time as being the single most unbeatable fighter in the UFC. He nearly beat Machida in a heavyweight bout. And he has two Gracies (Renzo and Rodrigo) on his list of victims.

Baby Jay Penn is a surefire Hall of Famer. The only question is when will Dana White open up the books and straighten this guy out by adding his name alongside the other true legends of the sport.

That was a Donnie Brasco reference, for those keeping score at home.

UFC FANS WILL NEVER QUITE UNDERSTAND

The majority of UFC fans probably never watched Pride Fighting Championships. Those fans will never fully understand the legend of Mirko Cro Cop. No chance. All they see is the fighter who entered the Octagon and had his aura of invincibility stripped thanks to a violent knockout loss to Gabriel Gonzaga in his second UFC bout. Cro Cop was never the same again. His loss to Roy Nelson on Saturday night highlights that fact.

Today’s version of Cro Cop is hesitant to pull the trigger with his fists. And he simply refuses to throw kicks. I don’t know why. Nobody knows why. Cro Cop probably doesn’t even know why.

None of that matters, though. Twenty years from now, nobody will care about Cro Cop’s UFC career, which has now come to an end, after three consecutive knockout losses. He will be remembered instead for his days in PRIDE, where he was the single-most feared striker in the history of the Japanese fighting promotion.

Cro Cop might be the most fearsome striker in the history of mixed martial arts. That is how I will remember him.

Cro Cop is a former K-1 star who scored wins over elite kickboxing greats like Jerome LeBanner, Mike Bernardo, Musashi, Peter Aerts, Mark Hunt, and Remy Bonjasky before transitioning to MMA.

Over the next five years, Cro Cop developed a cult-like following due to his ability to seemingly beat opponents with little more than his left leg. Sure, he could knock out opponents with his straight left hand. Yes, he had a good right hook. And he certainly knew how to slam his right shin into his opponent’s legs and body. But it was his left leg that really struck fear in the hearts of opponents.

Cro Cop had a famous saying. “Right leg hospital; left leg cemetery.” It was pretty accurate. Cro Cop scored highlight-reel knockout after highlight-reel knockout using his left leg. Most of the time, he destroyed an opponent’s head with it. Less often, he would hammer it into an opponent’s midsection. He regularly battered opponent’s legs with his left shin, too.

Nobody really had an answer to his standup skills, until he ran into fellow future all-time great Fedor Emelianenko. Cro Cop was viewed as an apex predator on the feet, and he lived up to the hype by scoring brutal knockout wins over Josh Barnett, Wanderlei Silva, Hidehiko Yoshida, Mark Coleman, and Heath Herring, among others.

The Croatian entered the UFC fresh off his PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix win. Everyone expected him to walk through the heavyweight division and destroy then-heavyweight champion Randy Couture. It wasn’t to be. Cro Cop faced Gonzaga in a title eliminator in his second UFC bout. Gonzaga scored a takedown by catching one of Cro Cop’s first kicks. The punishment he unloaded over the next couple of minutes on the ground forever changed Cro Cop as a fighter. It was as if he never wanted to be in that position again.

Cro Cop experienced up-and-down success from that point forward, finishing his UFC career with a 4-6 record. But again, none of that matters. The guy is a legend in Japan for a reason. As we say goodbye to that legend, I encourage UFC fans to seek out his PRIDE fights in the UFC library or on DVD. Trust me, it will be a treat.

BIGGEST COMPLIMENT I CAN POSSIBLY GIVE MITRIONE

Matt Mitrione lost to Cheick Kongo. I get that. But he is far from a loser in my mind.

Kongo is supposed to a top-of-the-food-chain striker. Yet, he wanted nothing to do with Mitrione on the feet. Nothing at all. Kongo will probably take umbrage with that statement, pointing to the fact that he was merely exploiting the weakest part of Mitrione’s game.

Hogwash. He got hit a few times by the monstrous former NFL lineman and wanted nothing to do with those punches. Period.

It was obvious midway through the first round that Kongo was facing a serious deficit in speed and athleticism against his bigger, stronger foe. Kongo kept waiting to counter what he thought would be wild strikes from the relative newcomer to the sport. Those openings really never materialized. Mitrione instead used excellent head movement and good combinations to score on the feet during most exchanges. All he needed to do was throw with more frequency, and I really believe that he would have gotten Kongo out of there.

The problem, of course, is that he didn’t. He was himself a bit wary of Kongo’s power and reputation. Fair enough. This was the first time that Mitrione had ever faced a true A-list opponent. Freezing up a bit was understandable. His inactivity allowed Kongo to land good shots in the second round and ultimately take the fight to the floor in the third, sealing Mitrione’s fate.

I fully believe that Mitrione will grow tremendously as a fighter from this loss. He definitely knows what he needs to work on more than anything else – getting up off his back when the fight hits the canvas. That is a glaring hole in his game, one that will prevent him from taking his career to the next level. With his amazing athleticism, I have a feeling that Mitrione will figure it out soon.

UFC President Dana White doesn’t play. Not when it comes to promoting UFC events. Certainly not when it comes to making sure fans receive tremendous value for their pay-per-view dollar.

Nick Diaz failed to show up to back-to-back press conferences to hype up his then-scheduled title challenge against welterweight kingpin Georges St-Pierre. Not sure whether the enigmatic fighter would actually show up for the bout, the boss pulled Diaz from the main event.

Believe me. White could have done worse, like terminate Diaz’s fight contract. He didn’t.

The question remained, though, when would the Strikeforce champion make his first return to the Octagon since 2006. The solution was brilliant. Diaz would indeed be granted his UFC return at UFC 137. Not against GSP. He would instead face BJ Penn, one of only two men to win championships in two different UFC weight classes and a fighter who will go down in the annals of history as one of the best ever, pound for pound.

Yet in a strange twist of events, GSP ended up injuring his knee during training, forcing him out of his title defense against Carlos Condit. This elevated Penn-Diaz to the main event, the spot originally pegged for the maligned Stockton native.

And for my money, Penn-Diaz is a more intriguing, more fan friendly matchup than Diaz-GSP.  

Probably sounds a bit like blasphemy to some. I don’t care. I’m a firm believer in that statement. Think about it for a moment. Have you ever witnessed Diaz or Penn in a boring fight when it didn’t involve an elite wrestler holding them on the ground for the length of the bout?

Enough said.

Neither Diaz nor Penn is a dominant wrestler, so a lay-and-pray strategy isn’t in the cards for either man. Instead, we will see two of the best fighters in the world, pound for pound, go head-to-head in what will likely unfold as a back-and-forth barnburner for as long as it lasts. That makes for must-see TV.

So, what will happen once the action gets under way?

Let’s dismiss with the obvious first. This fight will not be decided on the ground.

Diaz and Penn are the two best submission artists in the division, bar none. Penn is the more decorated of the two, holding the amazing distinction of being the first non-Brazilian to win the black belt division of the World Jiu-Jitsu Championships. He did that after only three years of BJJ training.

Diaz is not a decorated submission grappler, like his opponent. But he doesn’t take a back seat to anyone, including Penn. That is especially true when it comes to his offensive guard. The Cesar Gracie black belt might even hold the edge over Penn, in terms of the lethal nature of his guard.

None of that will be overly relevant on October 29. This fight won’t be decided by either man’s BJJ skills. Neither Diaz nor Penn are particularly effective at taking the fight to the ground, and neither of these guys wants to pull guard against the other. It may end in a submission. That is a very real possibility, though a knockdown, not a takedown or someone pulling guard, is the likely prelude to a submission.

This bout will be decided in pugilistic fashion. These guys are coming to throw hands, first and foremost. And they will keep throwing hands, mixed with the occasional kick, knee and elbow, until someone falls down or the final bell sounds. That is crux of each of their game plans. Trust me on that one.

Diaz will come out looking to slap box. He will paw with his right hand, while he looks for openings for quick right hooks and sharp straight rights down the middle. His mouth will be running the entire time, taunting Penn with venomous comments about any and everything.

Back to the slap boxing part. Diaz will be doing anything but slapping his foe. He will appear to be throwing pitter-patter punches. Yet, he throws with such great technique and overwhelming volume that the accumulation of damage from his blows is very real. And it compounds quickly.

Diaz will look to overwhelm his foe with activity, just like he did Frank Shamrock, Paul Daley and the eight other opponents he has faced since the calendar flipped to 2008. They say speed kills. Well, so does overwhelming activity and pressure, and that is what Diaz does better than anyone else.

Penn does not want a fire fight. The conventional wisdom is that the best way to beat the Hawaiian superstar, other than a lay-and-pray strategy, is to smother him with pressure. That is a risky proposition, though, because the former lightweight and welterweight champion is probably the best pure boxer in the division, and he loves to counter.

“The Prodigy” has the second best jab in the division, and that is the key to his standup offense. Much like a traditional boxer, Penn stands with his weight cheating toward the front and heavy hips. That allows him to throw with maximum force at any moment. Diaz has below average takedowns, so Penn won’t alter his normal stance, other than possibly sitting down just a bit more to generate even more power.

Penn can counter with the best of them. But he doesn’t stick and move on his counters. He plants and bombs. What that means is Diaz will have ample opportunity to return fire, assuming a Penn counter doesn’t turn the lights out. With Diaz’s sturdy chin, that is a safe bet.

Once on the inside, the fight should be all Diaz. Penn needs space to do real damage on the inside, particularly against a taller opponent. Diaz does not. He might be the sport’s single-most prolific puncher in a phone booth.

That is what Diaz wants. He wants this to be a fight in the phone booth. He wants to be trapped in the trenches with Penn.  He wants to overwhelm Penn with activity, forcing the former two-division champion to defend, rather than attack.

By contrast, Penn wants space to maneuver. He wants time to set up his shots. And he wants the ability to land one or two fight-altering shots.

On paper, Penn is the more skilled fighter. He is also the more accomplished champion. But this fight has Nick Diaz written all over it. Diaz is the second hottest welterweight over the last couple of years, second only to GSP. Penn has largely been an average welterweight in the UFC. His record stands at an average 2-3-1. Both wins were against Matt Hughes.

Something tells me that win number three won’t be against Diaz.

QUICK FACTS

BJ Penn
•    32 years old
•    5’9, 165 lbs
•    70-inch reach
•    16-7-2 overall (12-6-2 UFC)
•    13 of 20 UFC fights have ended inside the distance (11-2 in those fights)
•    Two losses to Edgar were his first losses by unanimous decision in his UFC career
•    2-3-1 in UFC welterweight division
•    2-2-1 in his last 5
•    6-3-1 in his last 10
•    6-7 overall against current or former UFC/PRIDE champions
•    Penn has never been submitted
•    Second fighter in history to win championships in two UFC weight classes (lightweight and welterweight)
•    Has competed in 4 weight classes (155 lbs, 170 lbs, 185 lbs and HW)
•    First non-Brazilian to win gold in the black belt division of the Mundial World Championship (BJJ)
•    Three UFC post-fight awards: Submission of the Night (2), Knockout of the Night
•    Current layoff is 244 days
•    Longest layoff of UFC career is 273 days (excluding the 3-year period when Penn was absent from the UFC and competing actively elsewhere)

Nick Diaz
•    28 years old
•    6’1, 170 lbs
•    74-inch reach
•    26-7, 1 NC
•    Finished 9 out last 10 opponents
•    5-0 in last 5
•    10-0 in last 10
•    Former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion (never lost the title; vacated it to return to the UFC for the first time since November 18, 2006)
•    Current layoff is 203 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 315 days

EDGAR—ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Frankie Edgar was a beaten man at the end of the first round. Gray Maynard was landing right uppercuts at will, dropping the champion multiple times. Edgar returned to his corner at the end of the round with a broken nose, a severely cut left eye and down two points on the scorecards.

I was debating whether to begin writing the coronation piece for the challenger. Luckily, I didn’t waste my time.

Round two got underway and Maynard inexplicably stopped punching. He started circling and posing. Edgar started sticking and moving. His foe started pulling straight back with his head up and his left arm extended, leaving himself wide open for more shots. He stopped countering. And that is when Edgar took over.

I have no idea how Edgar survived the opening round. It was basically a carbon copy of the heart he showed in his January bout with Maynard. This time, however, he responded to adversity with even better offense than before. He showed killer instinct by knocking out Maynard, something that I thought was next to impossible for the Jersey-based fighter, in the fourth round.

Edgar deserves serious respect as the champion. He won the title from one of the greatest fighters of our generation, BJ Penn. Successfully defended it against Penn in an immediate rematch. Survived a devastating first round in his next fight against Maynard, the only man to ever defeat him, and somehow found a way to pull out a draw. And then he settled the score by stopping Maynard in the third installment of their war, after having to again survive a savage beating in the opening round.

The champion not only has skills. This guy has crazy heart. I’m talking Forrest Griffin-like heart. If his next defense is going to come against Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, there will be several fight cognoscenti, me included, who will label him as the underdog. Well, he was the underdog against Maynard and the underdog against Penn. We all know how that worked out.

WHY DID MAYNARD SHUT IT DOWN?

That is the proverbial $64,000 question after the main event of UFC 136. Was he injured? Did he once again gas out during his first-round onslaught?

Only Maynard and those closest to him know the real truth. All I know is that Edgar was a beaten man when he retreated to his corner in between the first and second round. All Maynard needed to do was come out in the second, land a few good shots early, and remind Edgar that the nightmare of the first round wasn’t yet complete.

He did none of those things. He instead let Edgar get into a rhythm, and once the champion gets into a rhythm, he is extremely tough to beat.

I’m sure Maynard is bitterly disappointed in himself right about now. Understandably so. He lost the fight as much as Edgar won it, if you know what I mean. I’m not trying to be hyper critical. I just don’t understand why he shut it down after the first round. That decision will forever haunt him, particularly if he never wins the UFC 155-pound title. He will always wonder what if. So will I.

ALDO CONTINUES TO MAKE HIS POUND-FOR-POUND CASE

When most people talk about pound-for-pound greatness in mixed martial arts, they typically discuss only two names: Anderson Silva and Georges St-Pierre. Those in the know also throw around the name Jose Aldo.

Aldo handled a much bigger, exceptionally well rounded Kenny Florian with relative ease on Saturday night. It was his 13th consecutive win. GSP has never enjoyed a 13-fight winning streak in his career. His longest is nine—his current winning streak.

Silva, on the other hand, is in the midst of 15-fight winning streak. Not to mention the fact that two of those wins came in a division 20 pounds north of his division home. Plus, he has the UFC record for most consecutive title defenses.

Silva is, in my opinion, the unquestioned pound-for-pound king. But I think that the number two spot is a toss up between GSP and Aldo.

It will be interesting to see if Aldo continues to dominate at 145, or if he will opt to move up to lightweight to continue to build his legacy. He has an extremely difficult time cutting to the division maximum, so a move north may be all but set in stone at some point in the near future.

For the time being, he is without a shadow of a doubt the very best featherweight on the planet. And he continues making his case for consideration as the number two guy on the pound-for-pound list.

WHAT IS LEFT FOR FLORIAN?

Florian is now 0-3 in UFC title fights. It is tough to imagine him receiving another title fight any time soon. Not unless Aldo is dethroned in the short term. That makes for a seriously uncertain future for the affable fighter.

Don’t get me wrong. There are plenty of interesting fights for Florian at featherweight. But one must wonder if he will have the same motivation to train hard, follow a strict diet, and live the monk-like lifestyle that has helped shape him into arguably the best fighter in the UFC never to win a title.

Fighters fight for two reasons: winning championships and paying the bills. That is a gross overgeneralization. I know. Still, the statement has some merit. Remove the first reason from the equation, and that leaves paychecks as the sole motivation for KenFlo. I don’t know him personally, but it seems unlikely to me that money is a sufficient motivation for a true martial artist like Florian.

This may very well be the most devastating loss of KenFlo’s career, because this is the one that will weigh on him the most mentally. It is tough to imagine what will motivate him to continue striving for greatness, knowing that he may never receive another shot at a title, in any weight class. Then again, if anyone can find a silver lining in this situation, it is probably Florian.

IS THERE ANY DOUBT WITH SONNEN?

Chael Sonnen is the most polarizing middleweight in the UFC. He might even be the most polarizing figure in all of mixed martial arts. Love him or hate him, there is no denying that he stands alone as the clear number one challenger for Anderson Silva’s middleweight crown.

Sonnen’s utter annihilation of highly regarded Brian Stann after a 14-month layoff was a vivid reminder of that fact. No other man in the UFC has come close to defeating Silva. Sonnen came within 2 minutes of doing just that. He dominated Silva for 23 minutes, just like he dominated Stann on Saturday night.

Sonnen’s request to fight Silva on Super Bowl weekend is a great idea, if anyone wants my opinion. I absolutely love his “upping of the stakes,” to use his quote. He wants Silva to retreat to light heavy, if he wins the title. If he fails to win the title, Sonnen claimed he would leave the UFC.

I’m sure that was bravado. I don’t see Sonnen retiring if he loses to Silva. But it was an exceptional sound bite. Sonnen is full of those. He is the king of the one-liner. He is the undisputed champion of trash talking. And he may very well be the best middleweight in the world—he certainly thinks so.

PHAN EVENS THE SCORE; LET’S DO IT ONE MORE TIME

Leonard Garcia received a gift decision over Nam Phan in Las Vegas back in December 2010. There were no gifts at UFC 136. He instead received a beating from Phan in Houston.

Garcia and Phan will forever be linked due to their two scintillating fights. Despite the fact that the second bout ended with a clear cut winner, Garcia still thrilled the crowd with a third-round knockdown and 15 full minutes of crazy, all-out attacking, proving that he is one of the most exciting fighters in the promotion, bar none.

Phan was all-action in his own right. He isn’t always the most exciting fighter in the world, but when you put him in the cage with Garcia, it brings out the absolute best in him. Phan turns into a whirling dervish.

For those who also watch boxing, Phan and Garcia are eerily reminiscent of Arturo Gatti and Micky Ward. Their three fights, which ended with Gatti winning twice, were three of the best fights I’ve ever seen. Another example would be Marco Antonio Barrera and Erik Morales, with Barrera winning twice.

MMA needs a good trilogy in that same vein. Let’s run it back. What do you say, Dana White?

LAUZON BEATS GUILLARD AT HIS OWN GAME

Joe Lauzon knew he could not outstrike Melvin Guillard over the course of three rounds. If the fight devolved into a kickboxing-only bout, he was a dead man walking.

Oh, wait a minute. Lauzon didn’t receive a copy of the memo. He stopped Guillard in less than a minute and used a punch to get the win. He didn’t knock out Guillard, but he put him on ice skates with a counter left when Guillard jumped in with a lead left uppercut to the body. The New Orleans native left his jaw wide open when he threw the punch, and Lauzon took full advantage of the situation, re-establishing himself among the always robust group of lightweight contenders.

The question for Lauzon is whether he will use this win to put together an impressive streak of performances. To date, he has not been able to win more than three consecutive fights in the UFC, and even that feat (which he accomplished just once) is dubious, since it was interrupted by his stint on “The Ultimate Fighter,” where he came up short.

Lauzon has all the tools to be great. Consistency is his enemy. Let’s see if he can fix that in 2012.

BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FOR GUILLARD

Guillard was on the cusp of his first UFC title shot. All he had to do was defeat Lauzon. He couldn’t do it, ending his winning streak at five. There is no doubt that UFC President Dana White will make Guillard win at least one more fight, likely more, before he is back in a position to fight for a title. With 155-pound monster Gilbert Melendez expected to head to the UFC sooner rather than later, Clay Guida and Ben Henderson trying to make their claim, and the fact that the lightweight division is the most stacked in the UFC, one must assume that Guillard is now well back in line, which is too bad. He is one fun fighter to watch. Win or lose, his fights are rarely boring.

It’s the rubber match.

Well, not really, since one of the fights ended in a draw. The main event of UFC 136 on Saturday night is the third installment of the most intriguing UFC lightweight trilogy in recent memory.

UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar will defend his title for a second time against top-rated challenger Gray Maynard. What makes the bout so interesting is the fact that Maynard is the lone man to ever defeat Edgar. He just didn’t do it in their last bout—two of the three judges didn’t think so, at least.

Maynard dominated their first bout, scoring a clear unanimous decision win. He also completely dominated the first round of the rematch, coming ultra close to scoring a win by knockout. But Edgar found a way to survive the first round, and Maynard had completely depleted his gas tank searching for the knockout, so the rest of the fight, other than possibly the third round, was controlled by Edgar.

It was one of the most dramatic reversals of fortune of 2011. Edgar survived what seemed to be a sure defeat and found a way pull out a draw, which meant that he kept the title. Maynard was understandably crushed. He couldn’t understand how a guy who took a savage beating in the first round, seemingly teetering back and forth between consciousness and nighty night time, could find a way to win. But that is why rounds are scored in microcosm. Edgar won more rounds than Maynard, so he retained his title.

On Saturday night, the pair will dance once again. Just about anything can happen in a fight like this, but the one thing that seems overwhelmingly unlikely is another draw. This puppy will end with one man’s hand raised. I’m sure of it.

What makes the bout even better is both men have to be 100 percent certain that they can win. Maynard has thoroughly dominated Edgar in four of their eight rounds of competition. Edgar has won three in convincing fashion. One round probably could have gone either way.

So, what is going to happen this time around? Honestly, this fight is no different than the prior two. The words I wrote in the week leading up to the rematch remain relevant:

Edgar is a smallish, ultra-quick lightweight who makes his living with constant movement and short bursts of fistic activity, all the while maintaining great balance so that he can either defend a takedown or take the action to the canvas, if the situation calls for it.  It is a style designed to win on the judges’ cards, not necessarily one that will finish many fights.  To wit, the champ has only ended two of his nine UFC bouts inside the distance.

I don’t think anything will change with Edgar’s game plan against Maynard.  The reality is that the champ wants to keep as much separation as possible, while constantly changing angles with strikes.  He knows he cannot outwrestle Maynard.  He knows he won’t win a power contest, either.   He needs to fight in precisely the same way that he did in his title-winning and title-defending efforts.  

Maynard should come out with the same game plan that he had in the first fight, which was to score takedowns early in every round, keep Edgar on his back, and grind away for a stoppage or a judges’ decision.  “Should” is the operative word because I’m not convinced that Maynard will come out and fight with a disciplined game plan.  He may get too caught up in the moment and embark on a headhunting campaign with his always improving boxing skills.  “The Bully” has more than enough juice to stop the champ with his fists, but Edgar is the cleaner, more polished striker, so I think he will dominate in the standup arena, for as long as the fight remains there.

At the end of the day, this fight is all about the matchup, and the breakdown on paper suggests that the UFC Lightweight Championship will change hands on Saturday night.  Just like Edgar was BJ Penn’s kryptonite, Maynard may indeed be his.

I was wrong about the title changing hands, but the rest of the breakdown was spot on, and I don’t think anything has changed in the nine months since their last bout, particularly with Edgar. He knows he can stick and move, scoring with quick, crisp punches. He also knows that he has the deeper gas tank. He wants to drag the fight into the championship rounds where he should be able to rely on that deep gas tank (and good takedowns, by that point in the fight) to prevail on the judges’ cards.

Maynard wants nothing to do with the judges. I guarantee it. He will do everything in his power to score a knockout. And that is a huge mistake.

If Maynard hasn’t learned from his last bout, he won’t win on Saturday night. Sure, he can easily score a knockout. In fact, I think it is slightly more probable than not that he wins by knockout. But he cannot get overzealous searching for a knockout. Otherwise, he will risk the same fate he suffered on New Year’s Day.

Maynard lost the last fight for one reason and one reason alone. He punched himself out in the first round. If he fights with more control, he wins this fight easily.

Why? He is the better wrestler. He is the more powerful striker. He is the bigger, stronger man. And he already has a win over Edgar (and he believes he should have two), so he should have a mental edge. The only two relevant areas where he doesn’t surpass Edgar are his footwork while striking and his cardio. Neither of those will be relevant, if Maynard takes the fight to the ground early and pounds him out from there. Neither of those will be relevant, if Maynard lands a flush blow and methodically searches for the knockout. Neither of those will be relevant, if Maynard comes into the fight in great shape and follows a good game plan.

Then again, Edgar didn’t have any physical or skill advantages over BJ Penn. Not on paper, at least. And he beat the all-time great twice—easily.  He also happened to beat Maynard easily in their last fight, if one eliminates the first round.

QUICK FACTS:

Frankie Edgar
•    29 years old (turns 30 on October 16)
•    5’8, 155 lbs
•    13-1-1 overall (8-1-1 UFC)
•    2-0-1 in UFC title fights
•    8-0-1 in last 10 fights
•    4-0-1 in last 5
•    80% of UFC fights lasted the distance (6-1-1 in those fights)
•    1 UFC win by submission; 1 win by KO
•    4 Fight of the Night awards
•    Current layoff is 280 days
•    Longest layoff of UFC career is 308 days

Gray Maynard
•    32 years old
•    5’8, 155 lbs
•    11-0-1, 1 NC overall (8-0-1, 1 NC UFC)
•    0-0-1 in UFC title fights
•    8-0-1, 1 NC in last 10 fights
•    4-0-1 in last 5
•    8 consecutive fights have gone the distance (7-0-1 in those fights)
•    1 UFC win by KO; 0 wins by submission
•    1 Fight of the Night award
•    Current layoff of 280 days is the longest of his UFC career