Author: By Michael DiSanto

CRUZ EVENS THE SCORE; LET’S RUN IT BACK

Dominick Cruz proved on Saturday night that he is the best bantamweight in the world—at least, in most people’s minds. The judges tapped the tall, lanky champion as the victor over world renowned challenger Urijah Faber, but more than a few thought that the “California Kid” did enough to win the fight. For the record, I’m among those people. Nonetheless,  any time a fighter hunts and pecks, as Faber did throughout the fight, rather than taking some risks to get in there and brawl, he has nobody to blame but himself for the loss.

That is right. Even though I felt that Faber won, I cannot argue with the judges’ decision. Leaving a fight to the discretion of three individuals is always a risk. Faber could have taken more chances. He didn’t. The fight was close. Cruz was awarded the decision. Who cares if it was 50-45 or 48-47? A loss is a loss.

What matters to me is that Cruz and Faber are now 1-1. It makes a lot of sense to begin thinking about a rubber match. I’m not suggesting that an immediate third fight is necessary. I think it would probably be better for everyone to have the pair fight different opponents on the same card, further hyping the rubber match and giving each man a chance to prove that he is a better offensive fighter than what he showed on Saturday. Nonetheless, a third fight is as warranted as any three-fight series that I can recall.

Keep in mind that Faber was dominant in the first fight, scoring a first-round stoppage. Cruz was, at best, awkwardly effective in the rematch. Where Faber erased all doubt with a submission win, Cruz raised further questions by letting his opponent stick around for five full rounds without really throwing anything of real effectiveness. Those questions can all be answered if these guys run it back.

FABER GRACIOUS IN DEFEAT

Faber’s initial reaction when Bruce Buffer read the judges’ decision said it all. He pulled his arm away from referee Steve Mazzagatti and took several steps toward his teammates in obvious frustration. He felt that he did enough to win the fight, and knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that the judge who scored every round for his opponent should, at a minimum, be forced to complete some sort of training exercise to learn how to properly score a fight.

Yet, by the time Joe Rogan interviewed him, Faber was as gracious as anyone that I can remember who just dropped a close, controversial decision. Sure, he stated that he thought he won the fight. Yet, there was no protesting about the decision. He gave full credit to Cruz for doing what he needed to do in order to win. He blamed himself for not being more aggressive in search of a finish. And he thanked the fans for supporting the event.

After more than a decade of wacky judges’ decisions, fighters know that they take major risks if they don’t press hard to finish a fight. Hunt-and-peck standup exchanges and quick ground transitions without legitimately close submission attempts make a fight exceedingly difficult to score. Guys should know this by now. Faber certainly does, which is why he handled the loss like the gentleman that he is.

Other professional athletes should take note of the “California Kid’s” graciousness and class in defeat.

RETURN OF THE CAT SMASHER

It is shocking to me that so many people are expressing surprise over Chris Leben’s 27-second knockout win over Wanderlei Silva. This fight had nuclear bomb written all over it from the moment that Dana White announced the matchup.

Silva did just what I predicted in my pre-fight feature: he came out full throttle with wild hooks in true berserker style. Leben reacted just like I predicted: he planted his feet and swung back with all of his might. It just so happened that Leben pressed his own reset button before the Brazilian pressed his.

It was the most intense, action-filled 27-second fight that I can remember in all my years covering or watching mixed martial arts. That is why it was my personal choice for both Fight of the Night and Knockout of the Night. Fights like that don’t happen unless both men are willing to put themselves squarely in harm’s way while searching for a knockout victory. Nobody can ever claim that the fans don’t get every penny’s worth of excitement and action out of a Chris Leben or Wanderlei Silva fight. Put those two together and something special is bound to happen, just like it did on Saturday night.

The win catapulted Leben’s standing in the middleweight division. Remember that this is the same Wanderlei Silva who beat Michael Bisping and was ultra close to defeating Rich Franklin in his last two bouts. Leben’s annihilation of the “Axe Murderer” firmly entrenches him among the best in the division, all but erasing the bitter taste of his knockout loss to Brian Stann back in January.

I know he prefers to be called the “Crippler,” but for my money, the “Cat Smasher” is back!

ORTIZ SALVAGES CAREER; NOT A CONTENDER JUST YET

I don’t think any superstar has faced the same dire situation as Tito Ortiz did on Saturday night. Mired in a 57-month run without a victory, the former champion entered the Octagon to face upstart 205-pound prospect Ryan Bader in a fight that had “passing of the torch” written all over it. Indeed, MMA oddsmakers labeled Ortiz the biggest underdog of his career heading into the fight—to the tune of 5-1.

To add to the already suffocating pressure, White was very clear heading into the fight that Ortiz’s career in the UFC would come to an abrupt end if he did not win—period.

In one of the true feel good moments in professional fighting, Ortiz responded by turning in his most dominant performance in a decade. No, I don’t count the two fights against an aging Ken Shamrock as equal feats. Those really were passing-the-torch bouts. Ortiz hasn’t looked as good as he did on Saturday night since his brutal first-round stoppage win over Elvis Sinosic at UFC 32.

You read that correctly – UFC 32. More than 100 UFC events have taken place since that June 2001 evening, several of them when Ortiz was the unquestioned kingpin of the 205-pound division. It was good to see the “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” resurrect his career in such dominant fashion against a guy that many believe has the tools to someday become champion.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. The win proves that Ortiz remains a viable commodity in the ultra-deep light heavyweight division.  It does not, by any stretch of the imagination, prove that he is once again a top contender. I’m not saying that Ortiz doesn’t have the skills to once again contend for a title—not at all. I’m only stating the obvious point that a guy who was 0-4-1 in his last five bouts needs more than one win to put him back into contention. The win, however, definitely puts him in the mix for future marquee matchups as he tries to fight his way back into contention.

Well done, Tito. The world counted you out one too many times. It’s great to see you back.

GUILLARD PROVES THAT THE RIGHT CAMP MEANS EVERYTHING

How many times has Mike Goldberg or Joe Rogan stated that, in their opinion, Melvin Guillard is the best athlete in the UFC? You know what, I agree with them. This kid has all the tools to be great. Very few fighters enjoy the same blend of insane speed, devastating power, and jaw-dropping coordination. Yet, the early part of Guillard’s UFC career was an extreme rollercoaster ride of highlight-reel knockouts and puzzling defeats.

Then, he decided to begin training with Greg Jackson. Five wins later, including a win over highly regarded Evan Dunham, Guillard stands among the best in the 155-pound division. Another win or two and it will be difficult to deny this kid his first title shot. His star is rising that quickly.

Guillard’s career turnaround has been nothing short of amazing. Again, he has always had all the physical and athletic tools to be great. He never enjoyed the full potential of those tools until he began training with a world-class team. Young fighters should take note of that fact.

To be clear, I’m not suggesting that Guillard’s success is unique to his decision to join Team Jackson.  Jackson is undoubtedly one of the best trainers in the world, and his talent-laden stable of fighters ensures that everyone has top-notch training partners on a regular basis. But there are other gyms that offer similar situations, like the American Kickboxing Academy, Xtreme Couture, American Top Team, among others. The point is athletes wanting to maximize their odds for success should seek out the best training that they can find, just like Guillard did after his disappointing loss to Nate Diaz back in September 2009.

CONDIT MAKES HIS CASE

Carlos Condit knows what it is like to be a champion. The elite 170-pound mixed martial artist ruled the WEC’s welterweight division before it was folded into the UFC. And then he fell into the abyss of being just another fighter as he was folded into a division with established stars like Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, BJ Penn, Mike Swick, and a dozen other household names, in addition to welterweight mega star Georges St-Pierre.

After walking through previously undefeated Dong Hyun Kim like a knife through warm butter, Condit is anonymous no more. This guy has definitely established himself as one of the very best in the division with wins over Dan Hardy, Jake Ellenberger, Rory MacDonald, and now Kim. The question is whether he is ready for his first shot at UFC gold.

With GSP occupied until the end of the year with his upcoming title defense against Nick Diaz, Condit doesn’t have to answer that question just yet. It would be crazy for him to sit on the sidelines for the next 8-10 months while campaigning for a title shot. That is not the way to peak for a guy like GSP. Condit instead needs to keep busy, preferably by testing himself against one of the myriad of former title challengers who still stand among the very best in the game.

The two names that instantly come to mind are Koscheck and Penn.

Both men are coming off injuries, though both should be able to fight before the end of the year, which is perfect timing for Condit. A bout with either guy would be a major test for the former WEC champion, one that he might not be able to pass. That is why a bout with someone like Kos or Penn is just what the doctor ordered to legitimize Condit’s claim to the number one contender spot.

Urijah Faber is the most famous 135-pound mixed martial artist in America—period.

The man with the million-dollar smile and elite skills was the face of the WEC for the three years leading up to the decision by Zuffa to fold the fledgling promotion into the UFC. He has probably signed thousands of autographs during and after his record-setting reign as a WEC champ. Faber has used his star power to successfully market himself like no other bantamweight in domestic MMA history. The net result is a burgeoning business empire in his native Sacramento and, of course, regular headliner status on fight cards, which means big checks for strapping on the gloves and fighting.

Dominick Cruz doesn’t have any of that. He isn’t famous. Cruz hasn’t appeared in major market commercials, unlike Faber’s K-Swiss cameos.

But none of that matters because Cruz has one thing that Faber desperately wants:  the UFC Bantamweight Championship.

Yes, that is right. Cruz is the reigning 135-pound champion, despite the fact that he will be making his UFC debut on Saturday night. The crown was won in his final WEC fight, and it was a well deserved honor. The little ball of fire is in the midst of a seven-fight winning streak, including three straight when WEC gold was at risk.  He has been as dominant over the last three years as any WEC fighter not named Jose Aldo.

But here is the kicker. Faber already owns a win over Cruz. Yes, you read that correctly. The pair squared off in a March 2007 fight. Faber was the reigning 145-pound champion at the time. Cruz was making his WEC debut after a long, successful career in regional promotions.

Faber dispatched him in 98 seconds via guillotine choke. That loss remains the lone blemish on Cruz’s otherwise perfect professional record.

For those who haven’t seen the fight, I’ll lay out how it unfolded.

The pair came out circling for the first 30 seconds, throwing some crazy kicks and punches without landing anything of consequence. It was definitely a feeling out period. Cruz landed the first strike of consequence 45 seconds into the bout—a right uppercut on the button. Faber shook it off like raindrops falling on his shoulders.

Faber pressed the action with wild strikes. Cruz countered with a big takedown. Faber brilliantly transitioned it into a sprawling guillotine, using it to quickly work back to his feet, while controlling his foe.

Once back up, Faber landed a monstrous knee to the forehead. It snapped Cruz’s head back. The challenger instinctively took down his foe, though it was apparent (to me, at least) that he was still suffering from the knee because he literally did nothing with the takedown, other than lay in place.

Faber quickly moved for a guillotine while the fight was transitioning. Cruz initially was in a good position, with his arm inside the guillotine, preventing Faber from finishing the hold. Yet, Cruz did nothing else to improve his position or defend. After a few seconds, Faber adjusted his upper body and slipped his left arm under Cruz’s chin, rolled to mount and finished the hold.

Cruz is 8-0 since that fight. Faber is 7-3. Both have since dropped down to 135 pounds.

I think the drop in weight favors Faber much more than Cruz. The champion is at least two inches taller than Faber, which means he is extremely tall and presumably will face a significant strength disadvantage at 135 pounds.  Both men are lightning fast. Both could be mistaken on any given day for the Energizer Bunny, but few men in the sport, across any division, possess a gas tank that rivals Faber’s. He is a conditioning machine, able to fight at a frenetic pace for five full rounds. That conditioning advantage should only get better for Faber, who has shed some unnecessary bulk.

Of course, Cruz is the champion. He has only tasted defeat once in his professional career. He is probably the more motivated of the two because of the way the first fight ended. I’d be shocked if Faber was taking the fight lightly because Cruz owns two wins over Faber’s teammate, Joseph Benavidez, as well as wins over tough competitors Brian Bowles and Scott Jorgensen. Cruz remains the only man to ever defeat Benavidez (he did it twice) and Bowles. Those are huge wins.

But again, the motivation advantage probably lies with Cruz. I imagine this guy living and breathing nothing but Faber on a daily basis. It has to burn white hot in his gut knowing that he is the champion, yet Faber is the one receiving all the pre-fight attention.

Cruz has been very vocal in his pre-fight interviews about his belief that he possesses the better standup skills. I’m not so sure about that. Cruz may have the more impressive 33 percent knockout ratio (six out of 18 total fights), compared to Faber’s 24 percent (seven out of 29 total fights). Nonetheless, Faber has definitely been in there with more of a murderer’s row of strikers during his career, typically doing just fine on the feet, if not getting the edge in the action.

I don’t think Cruz seeking to keep the fight on the feet is the answer. I instead think that his biggest key to victory is putting Faber on his back and keeping him there.

In the first fight, I was fairly shocked to witness Cruz score two quick, relatively easy takedowns. Of course, he did nothing with those two takedowns. But that is not the point. Faber is dangerous in every position, but his offensive guard is probably the one area of his game that lags a bit behind the others. Cruz should look to exploit that weakness with a series of takedowns followed by active, yet controlled, ground and pound.

Getting the former featherweight champ to the ground is often easier said than done. The key, as Cruz showed in the first fight, is to counter his punches with aggressive takedown attempts, rather than leading with them. Faber is too good of a wrestler to get taken down and controlled with lead double leg attempts. He is also excellent in the clinch, so I don’t see Cruz dragging him down. Changing levels in the face of a Faber lead right hand, by contrast, is just what the doctor ordered, if the champion wants to keep his 135-pound strap.

For his part, I think Faber also needs to put Cruz on his back. That is definitely his weakest offensive position. In 17 professional fights, Cruz has only a single submission win. Compare that to Faber’s 13. Plus, Faber already has a submission win over him, something that could wreak havoc on Cruz’s mind, if the “California Kid” locks in even a semi-tight submission at any point in the fight.

Faber can get the fight to the ground in a number of ways. Many people often forget that he holds the record for all-time wins in collegiate wrestling at the University of California, Davis. He is, by far, the better wrestler in this matchup. He can take down Cruz in a number of ways—shooting from the outside, dragging him down or throwing him from the clinch, executing a high crotch against the cage, or, best of all, using his striking to get Cruz’s weight back on his heels and then slamming him with a double leg.

Whatever the case, Cruz is in a world of trouble if he finds himself on the ground with Faber pounding away. He should do whatever it takes to stand up in that situation. Faber will likely be the crowd favorite on Saturday night, so time spent in the top position mixed with cheers from his fans every time he lands even grazing shots is a perfect recipe for a judges’ decision. Cruz needs to keep that in mind and stay off his back.

In my breakdown of Wanderlei Silva versus Chris Leben, I stated that there are two types of mixed martial arts fans. The gladiatorial type, who love drop-down, drag-out wars, and the cerebral type, who prefer combat chess matches. This fight definitely will appeal to the latter. Neither guy has show stopping power in their hands. Both are fairly elusive targets on the feet. Neither man is easy to take down or control on the ground. And both fight as much with their brain as their brawn.

With that said, this may also turn into a serious slugfest. That is the great thing about the little guys. The lack of jaw-dropping striking power is replaced with amazing speed, deep gas tanks and constant action.

To be honest, I like Faber to win in any scenario. His power and speed should carry the day in a slugfest, though anything can happen when two guys plant their feet and swing away. His speed and elusiveness should carry the day in a hunt-and-peck scenario. His wrestling should carry the day in determining where the fight unfolds. And, if he is unable to dictate the position of the fight, his submissions and ability to work back to his feet almost at will should decide the outcome.

Then again, Cruz is the champion for a reason. This guy is no joke. He often appears to face significant disadvantages on paper. Yet, he always finds a way to win. Always, except in his previous bout with Faber.

We will see what happens on Saturday night.

QUICK FACTS:

Dominick Cruz
•    26 years old
•    5’8, 135
•    68-inch reach
•    17-1 overall (7-1 WEC)
•    5-0 in last 5
•    9-1 in last 10
•    59% of win by decision (10/17)
•    35% of wins by KO/TKO (6/17)
•    6% of wins by submission (1/17)
•    Lone professional loss to Faber by submission
•    Won Fight of the Night in WEC once
•    Linear WEC Bantamweight Champion (2 successful defenses)
•    Current layoff is 198 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 364 days

Urijah Faber
•    32 years old
•    5’6, 135 pounds
•    69-inch reach
•    25-4 overall (10-3 WEC/UFC)
•    3-2 in last 5
•    7-3 in last 10
•    52% of wins by submission (13/25)
•    28% of wins by KO/TKO (7/25)
•    16% of wins by decision (4/25)
•    4% of wins by DQ (1/25)
•    Former WEC Featherweight Champion (5 successful defenses)
•    WEC Submission of the Night three times
•    WEC Fight of the Night twice
•    Current layoff is 105 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 217 days

There are two kinds of fight fans. One loves the chess-like aspect of mixed martial arts. You know what I’m talking about. Two fighters surgically taking each other apart with a combination of punches, kicks, takedowns, positional changes in the clinch and on the ground, setting up submissions. These fans live for fighters like Georges St-Pierre, BJ Penn, Frank Mir, Demian Maia, Cain Velasquez, Rich Franklin, Urijah Faber and others who outthink their opponents, as much as “out-athlete-ing” them. These guys cite BJ Penn’s first win over Matt Hughes or Frank Mir’s bone-breaking submission against Tim Sylvia among their favorite moments.

The other type of fan is more primal. He or she may not understand much about the sport, other than knowing when one man takes a beating at the hands of another. These fans live for the gladiatorial aspect of MMA. They thirst for rock-em, sock-em robots. They watch Cheick Kongo survive a near knockout loss only to turn around seconds later and place Pat Barry among the land of the unconscious with a perfectly placed right bolo punch and rank it among the best fights they’ve ever witnessed, possibly second only to Forrest Griffin versus Stephan Bonnar.

Sure, I’m grossly generalizing. But the odds are that nearly everyone reading this article falls more or less into one of those two categories of fans. If you are the gladiatorial makeup, then UFC 132’s co-main event is must-see TV. It might even be the most highly anticipated matchup of 2011 to date.

Simply put, Wanderlei Silva versus Chris Leben is like pouring a truckload of ignited gasoline over a mountain of live dynamite. It is difficult to imagine any result other than a massive explosion.

Silva fights with unabashed aggression. He doesn’t know how to fight any other way. Actually, that is not true. Silva knows how to fight with as much technical precision as anyone in the middleweight division. This guy is a former PRIDE champion. A true living legend with Muay Thai skills for days and a black belt in jiu jitsu from Carlos Gracie Jr.—no small feat for those who know the Gracie standards. In other words, his arsenal is about as diverse as anyone in the UFC.

Fortunately for fans of slugfests, none of that technical precision matters once the action gets under way because Silva is a berserker by nature. He is a true apex predator without fear of being attacked and consumed by anyone. He loves nothing more than planting his feet and swinging for the fences with an opponent, without regard for his personal welfare or whether that is the most effective game plan.

Why? Simple. Silva personifies the phrase “savage beast.” Nothing makes him happier than to see another man lying beaten at his feat. He would rather vanquish an opponent than eat when he is hungry. That probably reads a bit hyperbolic, but it is true. Trust me on that one. Better yet. Seek out the opinion of anyone who has been watching PRIDE since the turn of the Millennium. They will co-sign on my description. Don’t take my word for it. Venture out and start asking questions.

What makes Saturday’s bout such a great fight for those of the gladiatorial persuasion is that Leben is cut from the exact same cloth as Silva. The formerly self-titled “Cat Smasher” loves a toe-to-toe scrap as much as anyone who has ever laced up a pair of vale tudo gloves. To support that claim, one merely need consider the fact that five of his last nine fights have won either Fight of the Night or Knockout of the Night.

Leben was either badly hurt or on his way to seemingly certain defeat in each of those fights. Yet, he found a way to win because he has no concept of the word “quit.” Well, that combined with a near impenetrable jaw, show-stopping power in his hands and the willingness to walk through brimstone and fire, if necessary, to win a fight.

Keep in mind that Leben is far more than just another barroom slugger. This guy is a complete mixed martial artist, just like Silva. He may not have a black belt, other than the one he uses to hold up his trousers, but he can slap on a quick submission the second someone disrespects his ground game. Just ask Yoshihiro Akiyama, Edwin Dewees and the other four cats he smashed via tap out.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for Leben to shoot in for a takedown against Silva on Saturday. I’m sure he isn’t afraid of the Brazilian’s black belt. Not at all. I am equally sure that he wants to test himself on the feet against a guy he grew up idolizing in the sport.

We could spend hundreds upon hundreds of words breaking down the ins and outs of the fight. The Xs and Ox of each man’s offensive game. His tendencies. His weaknesses. What he needs to do to be successful.

This isn’t that kind of fight. This is one of those once in a while fights where nobody needs to say anything about game plans, keys to victory, etc. All anyone needs to do is pull up a chair and watch.

Are you a fanatical supporter of the sport? Then you know what I’m talking about, and you are just as excited about this matchup as I am. This is one of those fights you are afraid to record and watch later for fear that you might miss the experience of seeing a timeless war unfold live.

New to the game, possibly even a first-time onlooker? No problem. Every human understands a fight. You will never be confused or out of sorts during this matchup. This is going to be about as primal of a fistic explosion as we have seen in quite some time. Kongo-Barry was an amazing fight for as long as it lasted. I think Silva-Leben has the potential to surpass it in terms of thrilling, back-and-forth action.

Still want my version of what is going to happen? Ok. Here we go.

Silva will take the center of the cage as soon as the referee signals for the action to begin. He will look for any and every opportunity to uncork wild, rapid-fire hooks with both fists—rock’em, sock’em robots style. Guess what? Leben will be right there to accommodate him. Neither man spends a lot of time circling behind the jab. Rarely is either man willing take a step backward. A punch can send one reeling in that direction. But they don’t often willingly retreat.

What they do is stand their ground and swing away until somebody falls down or the round comes to an end. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

If that doesn’t describe a great fight, then I don’t know what else to write.

Actually, I do. I’m going to end with a reprint three paragraphs from my breakdown of Forrest Griffin versus Rich Franklin (with slight modifications to fit Silva and Leben) because they are equally applicable to this matchup.

Sure, each of these guys has his own distinct advantages over the other. Leben is probably the more technical of the two. Silva is the bigger, stronger man. Silva probably has a more polished submission game. Leben has a sturdier jaw. Both can knock out any middleweight in the world with a single shot.

But again, this fight isn’t about trying to compare their respective strengths and weaknesses. Not to me, at least. It is about grabbing your favorite beverage, sitting on the edge of your seat in the arena, on your couch or your favorite bar stool and watching two men bear their heart and soul inside the cage in an effort to entertain the fans and win a mixed martial arts contest.

To quote Donnie Brasco, “that, my friend, is a beautiful thing.”  And that, my friend, is why I will be watching on Saturday night. You should, too.

QUICK FACTS

Wanderlei Silva
•    34 years old (turns 35 4 days after the fight)
•    5’11, 185 lbs
•    74-inch reach
•    33-10-1, 1 NC overall (25-9-1, 1 NC in the UFC/PRIDE)
•    1-0 at 185 lbs
•    2-3 in last 5 fights
•    4-6 in last 10 fights
•    2 of his 3 UFC wins and 15 of his 22 PRIDE wins have come by KO/TKO
•    Current layoff of 496 days is the longest of his professional career
•    Former PRIDE Middleweight Champion (93 kg)
•    Former PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix winner
•    Fight of the Night twice
•    Knockout of the Night once

Chris Leben
•    30 years old
•    5’11, 185 lbs
•    70.5-inch reach
•    21-7 overall (11-6 in the UFC)
•    6 of 11 UFC wins by KO/TKO
•    Entire UFC career at 185 lbs
•    Lost last fight to Brian Stann
•    3-2 in last 5 fights
•    5-5 in last 10 fights
•    Current layoff is 182 days
•    Longest career layoff is 315 days
•    Knockout of the Night three times
•    Fight of the Night twice

Sunday’s UFC Live event in Pittsburgh is filled with intriguing storylines, fan-friendly matchups, and a handful of TUF alumni looking to keep the ship moving in the right direction. Casual fans may not recognize all the names, but if this is someone’s inaugural experience with the UFC, they are in for a real treat if the fights even come close to living up to their potential. Rather than focus my pre-fight breakdown on the main event, I thought it made sense to give a quick rundown of the three fights have the biggest potential for fireworks.

MARQUARDT VS. STORY

Nate Marquardt has hovered around the top of the middleweight division since his successful UFC debut against Ivan Salaverry nearly six years ago. Yet a one-sided loss in his only title challenge, as well as back-to-back losses in subsequent title eliminators, left “Nate the Great” wondering whether he would ever take his UFC career to the next level. Rather than continue trying to climb the growing middleweight mountain, Marquardt opted to follow in the footsteps of former champions Randy Couture, Evan Tanner and Rich Franklin in search of UFC gold. Each of those men refined their diets, increased their commitment to cutting weight and moved one division south in search of a title, when the prospects at their more natural weight class began to fade.

On Sunday night on Versus, Marquardt will make his debut in the welterweight division. It is a weight class ruled by his good friend and training partner Georges St-Pierre. Other elite competitors also call the 170-pound division home. Guys like Jake Shields, Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Thiago Alves, Nick Diaz, Carlos Condit, and BJ Penn (from time to time) all rank among the very best in the game. Marquardt wants to enter that exclusive fraternity of welterweight contenders. To do that, he must defeat another man on the cusp of contender status, Rick Story.

Story is in the midst of a six-fight winning streak, after coming up just a bit short in his UFC debut. What is truly impressive about the streak is that Story’s opponents have progressively gotten more difficult, culminating with a solid win against perennial title contender Alves just under a month ago. A win over Marquardt will undoubtedly put him at or near the top of the “next in line” list.

The two big questions lingering over this matchup are whether Marquardt can successfully handle the cut down to 170 pounds without losing any strength or conditioning and whether Story is ready for someone of Marquardt’s caliber only 29 days after defeating Alves.

Marquardt will likely seek to keep the fight on the feet. He is a very versatile striker, effective with his fists, elbows, knees and shins. He is equally effective when pushing the pace or countering. Marquardt will look to set the distance with the jab so that he can land a big right hand. Nevertheless, his biggest standup key against an aggressive, come-forward wrestler like Story will likely be his ability to control the action and exact damage from the clinch.

Marquardt will want to secure the Thai plumb as soon as Story rushes in. From there, he can use hard knee strikes when the pair jostle in the clinch in the center of the cage. He will rely more on elbows once the action moves to the cage. Alves had some success in the clinch against Story, though he refused to slam the petal to the metal in the final round, when it seemed likely that Story was on his way out. Marquardt won’t make that mistake.

Story knows that standing and striking with Marquardt is a bad idea. He also knows that clinching in the center of the cage is not the right answer. He wants this fight on the ground, and the best way to get it there is to crowd his opponent against the fence and then drag him to the ground. Once the action hits the mat, Story should first focus on getting Marquardt stacked up against the cage and then force Marquardt to carry his weight by using heavy hips and lots of ground and pound.

Nobody knows how Marquardt will fare in a grueling match after his first official cut to welterweight. Maybe the extra cardiovascular work shedding those last few pounds will sap his typically deep gas tank. Maybe the extra dieting in the weeks leading up to the fight will render his gas tank before the cut a little less full than normal. Maybe. Maybe not. Marquardt has no idea. His coach Greg Jackson has no idea. Story needs to make him answer that question.

The problem, of course, with Story forcing a grueling fight is that he last fought on May 28. Assuming he gave his body a week to recover before jumping back into hard training, will three weeks of preparation, including the typical weight cut, be enough time to refill his gas tank? If he didn’t take a week to rest and recover from the tough battle with Alves, will his muscles suffer from early fatigue memory, sort of like batteries suffering from short cycling? Just like with Marquardt, nobody knows the answer to that question. Yet, fighting that type of fight gives Story the best chance to win, no matter what his conditioning state happens to be come fight time.

Story is as hot as any welterweight in the world not named GSP or Diaz. Regardless, this is a major uphill battle for him. Marquardt represents the most complete test he has faced in his career to date. And if Marquardt handles the cut without any deleterious effects on his strength and conditioning, he will be facing one of the biggest, strongest and best conditioned opponents of his career. All else being equal, those advantages are often enough to decide the fight, though all else is not equal. Marquardt is the better all around fighter, period. And he has been fighting at the top of the sport long before Story began his career, so there is a major advantage in terms of experience.

The saving grace for Story is Marquardt’s biggest weakness is his wrestling, and that is where Story excels. I don’t think Story’s wrestling advantage will be enough, in light of the short preparation time, to carry the day, but we’ll all find out soon enough.

KONGO VS. BARRY

If you have never before watched mixed martial arts and you only have time to watch one fight next weekend, this is the one you need to see. You won’t need to bother trying to learn the nuances of the ground game. You won’t need to turn to your friend or jump on the Internet to interpret what the announcers are talking about as they call the action. Cheick Kongo versus Pat Barry will be a good old-fashioned slugfest, assuming Kongo doesn’t shock the world (and disappoint the fans) with a series of takedowns.

For those who don’t know, Kongo and Barry were both highly successful professional kickboxers before tossing their hats into the MMA arena. Their standup skills stand above all others in the heavyweight division, both in terms of technique and raw, bone-crushing power. And both need a decisive win to take a step away the middle of the division pack.

Kongo has one monstrous advantage heading into the fight, and it will be apparent the second the pair stand opposed at the pre-fight weigh in to pose for the media. The Frenchman enjoys a full five-inch height and nearly an eight-inch reach advantage. Those are often insurmountable odds when two equally skilled strikers go to war, particularly if Kongo commits to keeping Barry on the outside with a machine-gun jab and lead leg kicks. Setting the distance at the end of his punches will prevent the shorter, somewhat more explosive Barry from moving into striking range.

Barry is a short heavyweight. He knows that. He has been a short heavyweight his entire career, and it hasn’t really mattered that much yet because he has an innate ability to slip an opponent’s punches and step inside where he is able to exact tremendous damage. He did that against Antoni Hardonk and Mirko Cro Cop. There is no reason to think he cannot do the same thing against Kongo.

Once on the inside, Barry has a significant striking advantage against the much taller Kongo, assuming he can stay out of the clinch and away from knees. But again, knees are a major risk for Barry against every standup specialist opponent, so he is very accustomed to avoiding them. Barry is very good at exploding upward with leaping right hands and left hooks. He is also excellent at digging to the body, an often underutilized strike in MMA. Kongo will likely look to tie Barry up once he penetrates the perimeter, and, if history is any indicator, work for the takedown. Kongo has shown an increasing propensity to take down opponents who pose any threat to him on the feet, something that is surprising for a fighter of his background.

That will be an unfortunate result, if it happens, because a standup battle between these two has the potential to be the Fight of the Year and certainly is the odds on favorite to win an event bonus check, whether for Fight of the Night or Knockout of the Night. The fact remains, though, that this is MMA, not kickboxing, so Kongo would be well served to take the action to the ground, where Barry is his weakest. The taller, longer Kongo will be able to pound away at Barry from inside the guard, tiring and battering him, without having to try and pass the guard or otherwise improve his position. Even though that will possibly rob the fans of a spectacular, jaw-dropping finish, it is the more intelligent path to victory for Kongo, if he finds Barry able to slip his strikes and counter.

Based on the physical advantages, this should be Kongo’s fight to lose. The operative word there is “should.” Nothing is certain when Pat Barry steps in the cage because this guy has the power, skills and athleticism to touch anyone on the chin at any moment and bring down the curtains in an instant. I actually think he will find a way to win this fight, despite the fact that it appears to be a significant uphill battle on paper.

BROWN VS. HOWARD

Matt Brown and John Howard are both going through a serious rough patch in their respective UFC careers. Brown has lost three in a row, succumbing to submissions in the second round of each of those bouts. The fact that he is being brought back after three losses is a testament to his fighting spirit and ability to entertain the fans with his all-action style. Despite those desirable traits, four losses in a row almost certainly guarantees a stint in one of many smaller promotions before receiving another opportunity in the UFC.

Howard is coming off back-to-back defeats after starting his UFC career with four solid wins. Back-to-back defeats aren’t a rarity among top contenders. Parity is the reality of fighting in the UFC. Nonetheless, few fighters receive the opportunity that Brown was given, so Howard must operate under the assumption that this is a one-and-done situation, if he comes up short.

It suffices to say that these two are fighting for their short-term UFC futures. Sure, if they put on a tremendous back-and-forth show, it is possible that both will remain on the active roster, but nothing is guaranteed.

That added bit of pressure can lead to stifling results. I don’t see that being the case with these two. Brown and Howard are fighters deep down in their DNA. They live for a good scrap. And that is precisely what this should be.

Brown is a brawler’s brawler. The guy has good technique, but he is almost exclusively an offensive fighter. He isn’t afraid to take one on the chin in order to return the favor, and that is often his game plan because his toughness is a thing of legend. Keep in mind that he is one of only a very few UFC competitors with 10 or more career losses without ever having been stopped due to strikes.

Howard is an explosive striker in his own right. Before running into his current rough patch, Howard scored spectacular back-to-back knockouts over Dennis Hallman and Daniel Roberts, two excellent opponents. The problem, though, is he doesn’t have the same set of whiskers as his opponent. One-third of Howard’s six career losses came by way of knockout. That is something Brown hopes to exploit.

This fight isn’t about Xs and Os. Brown won’t let it be. He will come to fight, likely sending any pre-fight game plans right out the window. My guess is that Howard will want to bait Brown a bit so that emotion makes him come out swinging wildly. That will open the door for Howard to change levels and shoot for a double leg. Brown’s Achilles’ heel is his ground game. And that seems to be Howard’s best path to victory.

JDS and Carwin going in different directions
 
Heading into Saturday’s title eliminator, contenders Junior dos Santos and Shane Carwin shared pretty similar careers to date. Both were 12-1. Both had developed reputations as monstrous punchers. Carwin had more of a reputation as a finisher, since he had finished all 12 wins in the first round. Dos Santos was known as being a little more well rounded, despite the fact that he was also thought of as having better boxing skills.
 
On Saturday night, everything diverged. Dos Santos completely dominated a very brave, game Carwin from pillar to post with superior movement and boxing technique. He also established his dominance by repeatedly and successfully defending Carwin’s aggressive takedown attempts.
 
It was a bit of a shocking fight for pundits and fans who have been watching both men over the years. It wasn’t shocking that dos Santos won the fight. Many predicted that result. It was shocking that Carwin seemed extremely hesitant to pull the trigger, something that has never before been an issue with the giant heavyweight.
 
I don’t know if cage rust was an issue, or if Carwin’s reluctance to fire was due to dos Santos’ stinging counter strikes. It was probably a bit of both. Whatever the case, dos Santos proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is the number one contender in the heavyweight division and thus the most deserving first challenger for reigning champion Cain Velasquez.
 
Carwin, on the other hand, suffered his second consecutive loss, drawing into question where he stands among the division’s elite competitors. I think that is a bit of an unfair perception after losses to two great fighters like dos Santos and Brock Lesnar (the man who handed Carwin his first career loss). But mixed martial arts is a “what have you done for me lately” sport, so it is what it is.
 
The one thing fans will never again question about Carwin is his heart. He took a very bad beating thanks to the accurate, powerful strikes possessed by his opponent. The former interim heavyweight champion had multiple opportunities to quit. He could have taken the easy way out when his face was a crimson mask and it seemed like he could do no right in the fight. Carwin insisted on fighting on. That was an impressive moment, one that showed the strength of his fighting spirit.
 
Nevertheless, Carwin needs to get his train back on the tracks. Consecutive losses are one thing. Three straight losses are enough to at least temporarily derail the career of the best and the brightest.  He badly needs a win in his next bout to put a stop to the negative momentum.
 
Dos Santos is on the polar opposite end of the momentum spectrum. It is tough to recall someone with more positive momentum and confidence heading into his first heavyweight title shot than what the Brazilian currently possesses. Velasquez was probably equally red hot when he faced Lesnar, but it is tough to suggest that he was riding a higher high than what dos Santos is riding right now.
 
Velasquez-dos Santos is going to be one heck of a scrap.
 
Florian finds a new home
 
When Kenny Florian stepped into the Octagon on Saturday night, he became the first man in UFC history to compete in four different weight classes. That will go down as a distinction that won’t likely be topped anytime soon. The question, though, is whether Florian will make the featherweight division his home for the foreseeable future.
 
He admitted, after defeating Diego Nunes, that cutting to the featherweight limit was the toughest thing he has ever done in his professional fighting career. He handily won the fight, but Florian looked a bit sluggish at times from the extreme weight cut. I would not put much stock into his energy levels or perceived strength at featherweight. Debuts like this one are rarely indicative of future performance. Florian will adjust to the cut. He will adjust his training camp weight so that he can more easily handle the trip down to 145 pounds. And he will perform much better next time out. I obviously cannot guarantee that, but I look to Rich Franklin’s history at middleweight as anecdotal evidence.
 
After a wildly successful run at 205 pounds, Franklin showed up for his 185-pound debut against Jorge Rivera looking extremely gaunt during the weigh-ins. He seemed to prematurely tire during the bout, something that was previously unthinkable for the well conditioned Franklin. Yet, he found a way to win late in the third round.
 
Franklin adjusted his training camp weight, making sure he was much lighter when it came time to actually make the cut down to the middleweight limit. He never again appeared gaunt on the scales, and his trademark deep gas tank has never again betrayed him.  A couple of fights later, Franklin was wearing middleweight gold.
 
I expect Florian to take the same path. I don’t know if he will ultimately win the title, but I suspect Florian will look much more comfortable at the weight next time out. If that happens, he is going to be a handful for any featherweight in the world.
 
Is “Pee Wee” too small?
 
Dave Herman is a small heavyweight. The former collegiate wrestler only weighs 230 pounds. That is not much weight at all on his 6’4 frame. Indeed, Herman looked more like a light heavy standing across from his 261-pound foe, Jon Olav Einemo.  The size differential was so significant that I gave Herman little chance to win.
 
Boy, was I wrong.
 
Herman fought an excellent fight against a quality opponent. He showed excellent striking. Good takedown defense. Excellent scrambling ability. Solid chin. And the sort of killer instinct that one expects from top fighters.
 
In other words, this guy seems to have all the tools to be an excellent competitor in the UFC. The question, though, is whether he can make an impact as a UFC heavyweight. For what it is worth, I think he is a bit too small to really make waves in the heavyweight division. Keep in mind that most light heavies weigh between 215 and 225 pounds by fight time.  That means Herman is only five to 15 pounds heavier when he steps into the Octagon than Quinton Jackson, Jon Jones, Rashad Evans and many other top light heavies.
 
Now, compare Herman’s weight to other top heavyweights. Brock Lesnar has to cut significant weight to make the 265 weight limit. Frank Mir weighs 260 pounds. Carwin is five pounds lighter. Cain Velasquez tips the scales at 245 pounds. And JDS is the smallest among the top dogs at 240 pounds.
 
Some more time at the dinner table and in the weight room could serve Herman well during his heavyweight campaign. Then again, maybe a little time spent trying to shed a couple of pounds so that he could successfully cut to light heavy would be an even better idea.
 
Cerrone missed a golden opportunity

Donald Cerrone undressed Vagner Rocha on the feet. It was a leg kick clinic. But it was far from a masterful standup performance.
 
Cerrone had a proverbial dead man in front of him during the third round. Yet, he refused to press the action against a guy who was not in his league on the feet. He instead chose to coast to a clear unanimous decision win.
 
Hey, winning is everything in every sport. I get it. There was no need for Cerrone to take silly chances against a guy who was getting completely outclassed. With that said, I was very surprised to see him refuse to plant his feet, sit down on his right hand and score a knockout win. In fact, I’d give Rocha the edge in terms of effective punches, which is crazy considering the skill differential between the two.
 
“Cowboy” admitted afterward that he was fighting not to lose, rather than fighting to win. That is an admirable admission from a guy who should have catapulted himself up the UFC lightweight ranks with his first knockout win in his professional career rather than fighting on leg-kick auto-pilot one fight removed from earning a Fight of the Night bonus in his UFC debut just a few months ago.
 
Yes, you read that correctly. Cerrone has never scored a knockout in his professional career. Nineteen fights. Fifteen wins. Twelve submissions. Three losses. One no contest. No knockouts.
 
Vagner should have been his first.
 
Stout shows tremendous sportsmanship
 
Sam Stout’s savage knockout win over Yves Edwards was more than the best knockout of the night. It may very well be the best of 2011. I know it tops my list so far.
 
The over-the-top left hook, which is a very unorthodox angle for a left hook, turned out the lights before Edwards hit the ground. Stout immediately pounced as his foe crumpled to the canvas, but he did not unleash the coup de grace. Sure, he stood and celebrated for a second. That is understandable. The adrenaline rush must have been amazing. But again, he did not throw that one extra “just to make sure” punch.
 
Stout’s decision not to fire any additional punches was a tremendous display of self control and an even better show of sportsmanship. Edwards did not deserve to get hit with another shot. He was already unconscious. The fight was over. Stout knew it.
 
A mixed martial arts bout is an athletic endeavor, not a true fight. It is about winning, not hurting someone. It is about one man testing his skills against those of his opponent. And Stout’s decision not to throw another punch was that of a consummate professional. Well done.

See the entire UFC 131 Photo Gallery here: http://ufc.com/media/131-event-gallery
 

Junior dos Santos has to be wondering what fate has in store for him.

The Brazilian bomber was originally scheduled to be the first man to challenge Cain Velasquez for his newly won heavyweight crown last year. Dos Santos was undoubtedly thrilled with the opportunity, even though it appeared to be the toughest test of his mixed martial arts career to date.

When Velasquez announced shortly after winning the title that he needed shoulder surgery, dos Santos was understandably frustrated. His first shot at UFC gold would have to wait possibly a year to materialize. Remember that mixed martial arts is a sport where athletes compete only a few times a year. Thus, he needed to stay active to earn a paycheck, despite the fact that taking any interim bouts would place his title shot in jeopardy.

Things rarely come easy in the UFC heavyweight division, and dos Santos’ replacement opponent was no exception. He was set to face Brock Lesnar, a 265-pound former NCAA Division I wrestling champion with out of this world strength, quickness and overall athleticism, after a career-boosting stint coaching opposite Lesnar on “The Ultimate Fighter.”

On paper, Lesnar was a very real threat to dos Santos because of his elite wresting pedigree. Say what you will about dos Santos’ overall skills. The one place he does not want to find himself is fighting from his back with Lesnar on top of him. Nevertheless, if he successfully defends the takedown, then the pendulum dramatically swings in dos dos Santos’ favor, to the point where the division’s number one contender would likely be able to comfortably handle the former champion.

I’m sure that dos Santos drilled takedown defense for hours upon days during the filming of TUF. His team likely obsessed over Lesnar’s tendencies and tell signs in an attempt to neutralize his gargantuan wrestling advantage.

Then the injury bug hit for the second time.

Lesnar recently received word a few weeks ago that his bout with diverticulitis was not over, so he would have to return to the hospital for additional treatment. With the fight between the two just around the corner, dos Santos needed a new opponent if he was going to remain on the June 11 card.

That is where Shane Carwin steps in. Zuffa announced shortly after learning of Lesnar’s flare up that he would be replaced by Carwin and face dos Santos in a title elimination bout.

Talk about a 180-degree shift in fighting style. Carwin, like Lesnar, is a former amateur wrestling champion. But, unlike Lesnar, this guy has excellent pure boxing skills and as much one-shot stopping power in his fists as anyone in the division, including his opponent.

That is in stark contrast to what dos Santos is saying publicly about the matchup. He stated during the TUF 13 finale that he expects Carwin to try and put him on his back, so preparing for him wasn’t any different from preparing for Lesnar. I hope those words are nothing more than gamesmanship for his sake, because Carwin is going to come out headhunting, not shooting for a double. I guarantee it.

Until his last fight, which happened to be his first career loss, Carwin owned a rather unique distinction. He finished each of his first 12 opponents, including former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir, in the first round. Mir was the only one among them to last more than three minutes.

It suffices to say that Carwin’s knockout efficiency is as close to a young Mike Tyson as anyone who has ever entered the Octagon—bar none. Dos Santos loves to box with opponents, but he absolutely must respect his opponent’s power, if he wants to avoid becoming victim number 13.

What does that mean? The Brazilian should come out looking to employ a tactical standup attack, rather than rushing in and swinging for the fences. Hard, straight jabs; quick one-twos; the occasional lead left hook or right hand; and solid footwork. That pretty much describes dos Santos on an average day, so the game plan heading into this fight isn’t much of adjustment to how he normally fights.

The key words are “isn’t much” because dos Santos would be well served to make a few adjustments. Chief among them is committing to slip and counter, rather than leading the action.

Dos Santos is an aggressive predator. He prefers to dictate the action, rather than counter. His commitment to attacking is likely based on the notion that opponents are less dangerous when defending incoming fire and backing up than when they are standing ready to fire.

Carwin is the exception to that rule. This guy has the rare ability to deliver knockout blows while appearing to retreat. It is the same rare ability that made Chuck Liddell one of the greatest knockout artists and most feared fighters of his day.

If dos Santos carelessly attacks, Carwin has enough power in his fists to score a knockout with what seems to be nothing more than an arm punch. He also is known to take a step backward in apparent retreat only to plant on that foot and springboard back with a fight-ending blow.

Part of that is natural fighting ability. The rest is due to the fact that Carwin, like Liddell, remains eerily calm when faced with an aggressive attack. They can wait for, identify and pull the trigger to expose openings that present themselves in those situations.

Dos Santos should try and turn the tables in this matchup. Rather than expose himself to a knockout blow during aggressive attacks, he should allow Carwin to lead the action by circling to his own right, away from Carwin’s nuclear bombs, and pawing with jabs thrown from well outside of striking range. Carwin will chase him in that scenario. It is in his DNA to do so.

Chasing will lead to frustration. Frustration increases the likelihood of Carwin loading up and firing telegraphed haymakers from too far away. Firing haymakers from too far away creates wide throwing lanes for counter attacks. Wide throwing lanes and a dos Santos win go together like pepperoni and pizza.

Carwin is going to be Carwin come fight time. There is no doubt about what this guy is coming to do. He will be throwing big power shots right from Jump Street, and he won’t stop until the fight is over, one way or another. I think he should flip the script and shoot for an immediate takedown when the fight gets underway.

I know dos Santos is publicly acknowledging that he expects that approach, but he cannot possibly believe his own words. Carwin has never approached an opponent in that way. As a result, if Carwin comes charging out of his corner with his hands held high, dos Santos will assume that a firefight is about to ensue.

Throwing a halfhearted jab to sell the notion that a fistfight is about to unfold and immediately transitioning that into a takedown, using his outstretched left hand to snag a leg, is just what that doctor ordered to completely befuddle dos Santos.

I’m not sure Carwin wants to stay on the ground too long with his opponent, who can handle himself in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. But he can certainly rain down with some quick, violent ground and pound. If, at any point, Carwin feels like a submission is on its way, he can merely retreat back to his feet.

That one takedown will forever change dos Santos’ mental approach to the fight. It will leave him a bit unsure about what is coming next because he will need to keep mindful of defending future takedowns. Uncertainty leads to hesitation. Hesitation leads to a knockout loss against a guy like Carwin.

Slipping and countering. Leading with a takedown. Those game plans are great. But if I’m a betting man, my money is on the fact that neither guy will follow the suggested approach. Both men will attack with calculated aggression. Dos Santos will look to establish himself as the man dictating the pace. Carwin will show little interest in takedowns. While that may not be the best way for either man to win, it is the best recipe for a potential Fight of the Night, or maybe even Fight of the Year, candidate.

I have no idea who is going to win this matchup. All I know is that this one is not going to last the distance. The end will come abruptly. It will come spectacularly. And the winner will be first up for new champion Cain Velasquez, as soon as he is healthy enough to defend his title.

QUICK FACTS

Junior dos Santos
•    26 years old
•    6’4, 240 lbs
•    77-inch reach
•    12-1 overall (6-0 UFC)
•    Hasn’t lost since November 10, 2007
•    5 of 6 UFC fights have ended inside the distance
•    4 of 6 UFC fights have ended in the first round
•    Current layoff of 308 days is the longest of his career
•    Knockout of the Night twice

Shane Carwin
•    36 years old
•    6’2, 265 lbs
•    80-inch reach
•    12-1 overall (4-1 UFC)
•    Last fight was first career loss
•    All 4 UFC wins have ended by strikes in the first round
•    No fight has ever lasted two full rounds
•    UFC bouts have lasted an average of 162 seconds
•    1-1 in UFC title fights*
•    Current layoff  is 343 days
•    Career long layoff is 385 days
•    Knockout of the Night once

*Includes interim title fights