Author: By Michael DiSanto

FERGUSON JOINS AN ELITE FRATERNITY; WHAT’S NEXT?

Diego Sanchez. Forrest Griffin. Joe Stevenson. Rashad Evans. Kendall Grove. Michael Bisping. Matt Serra. Travis Lutter. Nate Diaz. Mac Danzig. Amir Sadollah. Efrain Escudero. Ryan Bader. Ross Pearson. James Wilks. Roy Nelson. Court McGee. Jonathan Brookins.

And, after a spectacular knockout win on Saturday night, Tony Ferguson.

Those are the 18 past winners of The Ultimate Fighter, plus the newest entry into the exclusive fraternity. Over the last six years, TUF has gone from something scoffed at by veteran fighters to a bona fide builder of future stars.

Three of those men went on to win UFC gold. Three others earned the right to challenge for gold. Three more have established themselves as legitimate contenders in their respective weight classes. Two no longer compete in the UFC. Seven more are still digging in the trenches as they try to build themselves into contenders.

Where will Ferguson fit in? It is impossible to predict whether he will ultimately find a place among the top UFC welterweights. If history is any indicator, it will take the brash youngster a bit of time get himself situated in the UFC. That is OK because the UFC traditionally takes its time building and marketing TUF winners.

Ferguson has shown legitimate potential through his time on Spike TV. This kid has big power in his punches. Knocking Ramsey Nijem stiff with a single left hook was an eye opener for lots of folks. His takedown defense appears to be solid, though we haven’t seen him against a truly dominant wrestler. The big question mark for me is whether he has good offensive or defensive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. That part of his game remains a major question mark, though the training vignettes (which admittedly are designed to display a fighter in a favorable light) showed him moving with the skill and grace of someone who has more than just a passing knowledge of MMA’s ground game.

My expectation is that we will see Ferguson compete again sometime in the fall, assuming no injuries or other mishaps. It is going to be interesting to watch Ferguson develop on two levels. The obvious one is his growth as a fighter. Success on TUF doesn’t necessarily guarantee success in the UFC.

Equally intriguing will be watching how the public reacts to Ferguson going forward. He rightfully drew harsh criticisms from fellow competitors, pundits and fans for his actions inside the TUF house. Rehabilitating his image may prove to be just as difficult as finding his way in the UFC’s talent-laden welterweight division.

GUIDA PROVES THAT EFFORT IS EVERYTHING

Anthony Pettis is a seriously skilled offensive fighter. This guy has as many different tools to end a fight as anyone in the lightweight division. Yet, he came up short in a bout that most believe was a title eliminator for the eventual winner of Frankie Edgar versus Gray Maynard III. Clay Guida, despite his apparent athletic shortcomings compared to his opponent, imposed his will over the course of three hard-fought, entertaining rounds.

Guida proves again and again that mixed martial arts fights aren’t decided solely on athleticism or even on talent. MMA fights are more often than not decided based on effort and game plan, and nobody in the lightweight division gives more of himself and remains fully committed to his game plan than Guida.

As a result, a guy who many believe only has average overall skills now stands on the cusp of a shot at the UFC lightweight championship.

Look, I’m not being disrespectful when claiming that many view Guida as an average overall fighter. Reality is a sometimes a tough pill to swallow. Guida is not a great striker. He is not a great submission fighter. He is not the biggest or strongest guy in the division. None of that matters, though. Guida is one of the very best in the game because he outworks opponents and because his way of fighting, which is to rely on his overall toughness, endless cardio and dominant wrestling, is crazy effective.

Guida now has back-to-back wins over former champions. He defeated former PRIDE lightweight champion Takanori Gomi in his last fight. I’m not sure what else he needs to do to prove his championship mettle.

I’ll go out on a limb right now. Regardless of who wins between Edgar and Maynard, if Guida is given the next shot, he will give either man fits. He will make it an ugly, hard-fought bout that is likely to win Fight of the Night honors, and he might even come away with the title.

TIME TO STOP UNDERESTIMATING COPE

Like everyone else, I watched every episode of TUF, and I was never a big believer in Chris Cope. He seemed like a guy who didn’t want to really engage on the feet, wasn’t overly technical with his standup, and had no ground game. Chuck O’Neil didn’t test Cope’s ground game, so that remains a question for me. Nonetheless, the “whoo” guy showed me that he is a far more skilled striker than I thought.

Cope basically undressed a very game, very tough O’Neil in standup-only fight. It was a tremendous performance for a guy lots of people underestimate again and again. I’m not sure where he fits into the 170-pound division. I don’t think he is ready to stand up with guys like Georges St-Pierre, Thiago Alves, Josh Koscheck, Paulo Thiago or any other top-level guy. Then again, nobody has really gone from TUF alumnus to UFC rookie competing with the big boys, as mentioned above.

I’m sure the UFC will bring along Cope somewhat slowly, just like they have other guys in his position, though he will need to earn his keep with solid efforts each time out. After watching his performance on Saturday night, I’ll be watching with significant interest to see if he can develop into a contender. Whatever happens, I definitely enjoyed his performance against a guy I assumed would beat him.

NEW NICKNAME, PLEASE

After giving Cope some love in the paragraphs above, it’s time to give him a bit of a hard time.

“C-Murder”? Really? To quote NFL analyst Cris Carter, “C’mon man!”

Fans of hip hop probably remember the more famous C-Murder, Corey Miller, who was a very successful rapper, albeit for a very brief period. If they don’t recognize the name, he is the brother of Percy “Master P” Miller and uncle of Master P’s famous son, Romeo. C-Murder lived up to the moniker when he was convicted of second degree murder in 2009 for the 2002 slaying of a 16-year-old fan. The rapper also pled no contest to two separate counts of attempted second degree murder for a shooting outside a New Orleans nightclub.

C-Murder is currently serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole at the Louisiana State Prison at Angola.

Cope needs to do better.

KINGSBURY KEEPS ON KEEPIN’ ON

It is tough not to judge a book by its cover. Just about anyone who sees Kyle Kingsbury and Fabio Maldonado stand next to each other shirtless will assume that, if the two fought, the more well muscled, far leaner Kingsbury would be the one handing out the whuppin’.

Nope.

It was Kingsbury who left the Octagon looking like he got jumped by a gaggle of baseball bat-wielding gang members.

Nonetheless, the former Arizona State football player came away with the win in one of the more entertaining scraps of the evening. Kingsbury used effective striking, particularly in the clinch, and excellent takedowns to win the first two rounds, before taking a pretty good beating in the third.

The win continued Kingsbury’s recent run of success, extending his current win streak to four. He is quickly putting himself into the mix at 205 pounds. A couple more wins and it will be time for a marquee matchup for this TUF alumnus.

Maldonado, by contrast, lost for the first time in nearly four years.  Nonetheless, I don’t think the loss hurts his standing too much because this was one fun scrap to watch.

RAMPAGE WINS, BUT WAS IT ENOUGH?

A couple of fortuitous events found Quinton “Rampage” Jackson fighting for the right to challenge UFC light heavyweight Champion Jonny “Bones” Jones. All he needed to do was defeat Matt Hamill in thrilling fashion to guarantee the title shot that has eluded him since losing the strap to Forrest Griffin three years ago.

 Rampage took care of part of the job. He defeated Hamill and did it with relative ease. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the most exciting affair. In fact, the workmanlike effort against Hamill is the third consecutive fight where Rampage has been less than impressive.

Unlike in the previous two bouts, Rampage was dominant this time around, leaving no doubt in anyone’s mind as to who was the better man. That sort of positive trend should bode well for him in his next bout, whether against Jones or anyone else.

For what it is worth, I think Rampage should be next up for Jones, despite the sleepy win. Why? He deserves it.

There are many, including Rampage and this writer, who believe that he did enough to win the bout with Griffin. Worst case, it should have been a draw. Typically, when a guy loses in close, controversial fashion, he is granted an immediate rematch. Rampage didn’t get one after his tough loss to Griffin.

Instead, he was sent back on the challengers’ trail. Five fights and four wins later, it is time for Rampage to receive an opportunity to return to the pinnacle of the sport. Plus, Rampage versus Jones is one of the more marketable bouts out there, particularly if one or the other begins a war of words, something Rampage immensely enjoys.

Of course, all that assumes that Rampage’s left hand is healthy enough to fight when Jones is ready to go. He revealed after the match that he competed with a fractured left hand, something that is almost unthinkable in a sport where a standup killer like Rampage lives and dies with his fists.

UFC President Dana White needs to announce Jones’ opponent soon so his company can begin building the promotion for the bout. My guess is that it will be Rampage. Then again, maybe Saturday’s sleepy effort opened the door for fellow former champion Lyoto Machida. We will all know soon enough.

MIR SHOWS THAT HE IS STILL NEAR THE TOP OF THE HEAP

Roy Nelson is nobody’s light lunch. Mix in the fact that he defeated Frank Mir in a grappling match, and Saturday’s “Las Vegas Bowl” was probably a much tougher fight for Mir than most believe. Yet, Mir walked through Nelson like a hot knife through half-melted butter.

The former champion still needs to figure out how to deal with the true behemoths of the division. He seems to have everything else on cruise control.

The winner of Junior dos Santos versus Shane Carwin will likely face Cain Velasquez at the end of the year. Unless he drops a fight in the interim, Mir should be next in line.

NELSON NEEDS TO GO SOUTH

Nelson is one tough hombre. No doubt about it. Mir landed more vicious knees than I can remember from any bout other than the two times that Wanderlei Silva savagely stopped Rampage. Yet, “Big Country” kept coming forward, swinging for the fences.

This was the second time in two fights that Nelson experienced a bludgeoning without really slowing down. If he wanted to prove to the world that he has possibly the best whiskers in the sport, mission accomplished. What he really proved, though, is that he is simply too small to compete at the highest levels of the heavyweight division.

Seeing Nelson and Mir stand next to each other highlighted the point for me. The pair weighed the exact same amount at the pre-fight weigh-ins. Mir enjoys a three-inch height advantage, which is very significant. That differential paled in comparison to the muscularity difference. I know. I know. Mixed martial arts is not bodybuilding. Physique is rarely an indicator of a man’s fighting ability.

Nevertheless, I’m going to go back to something the late, great Evan Tanner once told me during an interview. When he announced that he was dropping from 205 pounds to 185 pounds, I asked him why. His response perfectly applies to Nelson. Tanner said, “All else being equal, the bigger man is going to win a fight more often than not, and I want to be the bigger man going forward.”

The key to that phrase is “all else being equal.” Maybe Nelson has the same skills as Mir – that is a big maybe. It is obvious, though, that he cannot get into the same cardiovascular shape, and there is no way on earth that he can match Mir in terms of speed and explosive power. The former champion is far and away the naturally bigger man, and he dominated Nelson on Saturday night.

Nelson even admitted in the post-fight presser that Mir was difficult to handle because of his size, remarking more than once that Mir was a “big guy.”

I don’t think I’m going out on much of a limb by suggesting that Nelson should drop to 205 pounds. He easily carries an extra 40 pounds of body fat on his torso. Hiring a sports-focused dietician and some extra cardio should easily rid his body of those unwanted pounds in four-to-five months. If he gets to 220 pounds, he should be able to cut to 205 pounds without any worry.

Think of Nelson at light heavy. He would still be on the short side, standing only six-feet tall. But he won’t be tiny, like he is at heavyweight. If he can eat three rounds of punches from Junior dos Santos and a similar amount of punches and knees from Frank Mir, it stands to reason that he will be able to handle whatever guys like Jon Jones, Rashad Evans, Rampage and other top light heavies throw at him. He should also be able to more effectively fight back, possibly earning his way to the top of the division.

If Nelson remains at heavyweight, he will continue to engage in fan friendly fights. He will also beat his fair share of opponents. But I don’t see him entering the upper echelon of the division at any point because of his physical limitations – height, reach, strength and natural size – compared to guys like Mir, JDS, Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, and Travis Browne, among others.

STORY IN THE MIDST OF A FAIRY TALE RUN

Not many welterweights have the stones to ask for a bout with Thiago Alves. I guess that makes Rick Story unique.

Of those who would dare call out the “Pitbull,” even fewer have the skills to defeat a motivated, focused Alves. Story did just that on Saturday night.

Following a win over Alves, nobody, and I mean nobody, would have the gall to call out Jon Fitch. We’re talking about the one welterweight that nobody wants to fight. Fitch is a nightmare for opponents because of his size and style. Yet, that is exactly what Story did at the UFC 130 post-fight presser.

I’ll admit that I expected Alves to walk through Story. That obviously didn’t happen. Story used an excellent gameplan to smother Alves’ strikes and score. And then he hung on for dear life in the third, as the Brazilian mounted a furious assault, at least momentarily.

The win undoubtedly places Story on the short list of legitimate 170-pound title threats. That is a far cry from where most thought he would be two years after his UFC debut. Back on June 13, 2009, Story suffered a clear loss to John Hathaway in his UFC debut. That loss sparked a fire that continues to burn white hot.

Wins against Brian Foster, Jesse Lennox, Nick Osipczak, Dustin Hazelett, Johny Hendricks, and now Alves, in that order, followed the loss to Hathaway. This kid isn’t top 10 at this point. He has to be considered top five.

Fitch’s current injury may prevent a fight with Story in the short term, particularly if Story wishes to keep busy and build off of his tremendous momentum. Josh Koscheck, depending on his current recovery, or possibly Jake Shields might be just what the doctor ordered to determine whether Story has the juice for a shot at GSP.

Whatever is next for the Washington native, he is in the midst of one heck of a run.

STANN IS THE NEW CAPTAIN AMERICA

I know that most associate the moniker “Captain America” with living legend Randy Couture. The multi-division, multi-time UFC champion carried that name to the Octagon for years. Yet, there is no fighter in the world more deserving of that nickname than Brian Stann.

Graduate of the United States Naval Academy. Captain in the United States Marine Corps. Veteran of live combat in Iraq. Recipient of the Silver Star, the nation’s third highest award for valor in combat.

And he is now one of the top middleweights in the world, after defeating Jorge Santiago on Memorial Day Weekend.

Sounds like Captain America to me. All that is left for this American hero is to win a UFC championship. He still needs to improve on his wrestling base or guys like Chael Sonnen will give him fits. If he can shore up that part of his game and continue improving on his overall skills, then who knows what might happen.

Watch the full event here: http://www.ufc.tv/ufc/event/rampage-vs-hamill/509

The two couldn’t be more opposite, physically or philosophically.

Frank Mir lives bushido. He practices the way of the warrior in every aspect of his life, living, breathing and embracing the true spirit of being a martial artist since his earliest years. Martial arts is his life. Even if the UFC didn’t exist, Mir would be in a dojo somewhere training his mind and body in the search of perfection.

Just think about the transformation Mir made to his physique and strength in an attempt to try and counteract the amazing physical advantages held by monstrous heavies like Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. Think about the guy who has added nearly 40 pounds of lean muscle since his 2002 UFC debut, forcing him to cut approximately 15 pounds in order to make the 265-pound weight limit when he squared off against Carwin.

When Mir realized that all the extra muscle actually made him a bit slower than he believed optimal, he dropped back down to a lean 250 pounds. After all, Mir’s fighting style is one of a smaller guy, since he is at his very best fighting from his terrific offensive guard. He now fights at that weight.

Think of how he has transformed himself from a rudimentary striker who looked extremely vulnerable on the feet five or six years ago to a guy who scored a savage knockout victory over Mirko Cro Cop and dropped Cheick Kongo before submitting him. Those are two of the more successful kickboxers to transition into mixed martial arts over the last decade.  Oh yes, he was also the guy to hand heavyweight legend and former PRIDE and UFC Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira the first knockout loss of his illustrious career.

That is bushido.

Don’t get me wrong. The guy isn’t a monk. He has a personal life. Enjoys himself like any other financially secure 30-something athlete. But when it comes to martial arts, he takes himself as seriously as anyone in the heavyweight division. And he is completely committed to becoming the absolute best heavyweight he can possibly be, as evidenced by his two separate reigns as a UFC champion.

Roy Nelson. Well, let’s just say that this guy marches to the beat of his own drum, regardless what others think.

“Big Country” sports one of the portliest figures in the promotion. This guy has a belly that would make any beer drinking champion green with envy. Seriously.

For whatever reason, Nelson chooses not to embark down the disciplined dietary road that many professional athletes travel. He instead embraces his belly, often rubbing it lovingly during his post-fight celebration. Do you know how many cheeseburgers, ice cream cones, potato chips and beers (or other sugary beverage) it takes to grow one of those bad boys? He might as well embrace it.

Strip him of all of his unnecessary body fat, and we are probably talking about a guy who weighs in the neighborhood of 235 pounds, which means he is a smallish heavyweight in terms of natural frame. Yet, Nelson fights like a huge man, often imposing his physicality. That is something that Mir has never done, despite his once hulking frame.

Despite the 179 words spent talking about Nelson’s physique, the guy is a legitimate, high-level professional athlete and an extremely talented fighter. He hasn’t really reinvented himself as a fighter at any point in his career. He knows what he is good at and where he is weak. He trains, not necessarily to shore up his weaknesses, but rather to make sure he can keep the fight where he is strongest.

That isn’t bushido. Then again, who is to say that bushido is all that relevant in 2011, especially when dealing with a natural born fighter like Nelson.

The differences don’t end there.

Nelson grew up fighting for peanuts on mid-major shows, desperate to someday earn a shot at competing under the bright lights and for the lucrative paydays of the UFC. Mir cut his MMA teeth in the world’s toughest promotion by facing the best of the best on a night-in, night-out basis.

Nelson craves the opportunity to prove that he is worthy of a title shot. Mir is a two-time champion (including his brief stint as interim UFC Heavyweight Champion).

The biggest difference of all is a little known fact: Nelson owns a win over Mir in a grappling tournament. Granted, that was years ago. Of course, grappling and MMA are about as different as rugby and football. Yet, Nelson has that little seed of confidence knowing that he has beaten his opponent at the dimension of his game that is universally regarded as Mir’s strongest.

You read that correctly. Nelson squared off against Mir in the realm that former champion considers to be his bread and butter, and he won. That bit of history won’t have any impact on the fight from Mir’s perspective, unless he finds himself on his back getting pounded in the face. It will, by contrast, give Nelson just a little more confidence than he otherwise should have heading into this matchup.

Enough with the long-winded introduction. It is time to get down to the nuts and bolts of the matchup.

Both of these guys will look to stand and bang at the beginning of the fight. Mir has been committed to fighting all opponents on the feet, since his December 2008 bout against Minotauro. He sits down on his punches and pays little attention to defending the takedown because his guard is one of his most dangerous offensive weapons.

Nelson, who shares Mir’s status as a BJJ black belt, also looks to stand and bang. Not because his best position is his guard. Rather, Nelson just loves to stand and bang, and he has the whiskers to do it with just about anyone without serious fear of a one-punch knockout loss.

So, what does all that mean?

The early moments of the fight will be a battle of footwork. Mir and Nelson will push to try and establish the outside position with their lead foot. Doing so opens up throwing lanes for lead power shots. It also puts the aggressor in prime position to drive forward for a takedown attempt, if the need arises.

Five years ago, I would have said that such a game plan was MMA suicide for Mir because Nelson has extremely thick whiskers and good pop in his own punches. But this is a new Frank Mir. Maybe even Frank Mir 5.0 – (i) the guy who won the title from Tim Sylvia, (ii) the guy who returned after the serious motorcycle accident as a shell of his former self, (iii) the guy who resurrected his career with a win over Lesnar, (iv) the guy who reinvented himself as a 280-lb striker, and (v) a slimmer, faster and even more polished standup version of Mir 4.0.

As Mir looks to pot shot Nelson with his straight left hand, he should continue looking to circle to his own right, always keeping the outside position with his lead foot, and mix in hard outside lead leg kicks. He can use that strike to transition into another left cross. Clean up right hooks will also be a comforting friend against a guy with limited lateral movement like Nelson.

Mir must be careful, however, to avoid loading up on his shots. Nelson’s chin is too sturdy for that. Junior dos Santos hit him on the button with everything in his arsenal, plus the kitchen sink, several dozen times. Dos Santos is one of the most efficient fistic destroyers in the game. One punch is typically enough to bring a fight to a sudden, violent end. Not against Nelson. Big Country shook off right hand after right hand and kept coming forward in search of more.

Mir does not have the same devastating show-stopping power in his punches as dos Santos. The former champion must be prepared to go three hard rounds, if the fight remains standing. If the dos Santos bout left lingering deleterious effects on the sturdiness of Nelson’s chin—a real possibility—then Mir can surprise himself with a spectacular early knockout. I wouldn’t plan on it, though.

Nelson will also look to come out firing lead power shots, only his version will be with the right hand, since he fights from a conventional stance. He will also throw a healthy dose of jabs, despite the fact that fighting an oppositely faced opponent often nullifies the effectiveness of a jab.

If I was in Big Country’s corner, I would not encourage him to get comfortable kickboxing with Mir, unless he is having a lot of early success. He should use his striking to score points and set up takedowns. I don’t think Mir will expect a guy like Nelson to shoot in, so that is exactly what he should do.

As good as Mir is from his back, he still doesn’t want to be in that position against Nelson. The former TUF winner is ridiculously talented at using his massive midsection to actually hold down opponents and strike, without putting himself in particularly vulnerable positions for a submission. He knows that if he holds Mir down for three rounds and remains active with his ground and pound, he will win the fight.

Note: the operative phrase is “for three rounds,” which obviously assumes Mir is not successful locking in a submission hold. That is not a safe assumption.

Nelson’s belly may be an asset when it comes to holding down opponents. But it is a liability when dealing with a guy of Mir’s skill level because it actually forces the former champion to remain very active in his guard. Nelson’s midsection will make it difficult for Mir to close his guard and control his opponent’s hips. Mir will therefore need to either employ the butterfly guard or rubber guard to try and nullify Nelson’s ground-and-pound attack.

Or, he can simply focus on keeping his hips high and active, which will put Nelson in a general defensive posture. The Mir who terrorized Sylvia and Lesnar from his guard is the same guy who can cause Nelson problems. His submissions are very difficult to see coming because he is so good at transitioning in the blink of an eye from move to move. He also can rely on his insane physical strength to complete moves that don’t seem quite deep enough to cause a submission.

Remember Sylvia’s forearm snapping? His elbow was clear of Mir’s hips, so the armbar should have been ineffective. Not against a behemoth like Mir.

If Nelson finds himself in deep water on the ground, he should cautiously retreat back to the feet. He can then employ a second strategy, one that worked wonders for Carwin. Crowd Mir against the cage and look to win with dirty boxing.

I like to call that game plan the “Couture special,” after living legend Randy Couture. Nelson has the size, weight and, oddly enough, proper distribution of weight to effectively employ leverage to keep Mir pinned against the cage, if he is effective at getting him there in the first place.

The way to get Mir to the cage is to apply unabashed pressure on the feet. Mir’s first instinct is to back up in the face of pressure. Once he realizes he is backing up, Mir will look to move laterally to create angles for solitary strikes. Nelson can take advantage of that hole in his opponent’s game to literally rush in the second he sees Mir take a backward step. He can then grind and smother his way to an ugly win.

At the end of the day, anything can happen when two UFC heavyweights step into the Octagon. This is one of those matchups, though, where a few outcomes are more likely than others.

If the bout ends by spectacular knockout on the feet or slick submission on the ground, Mir will almost certainly be the one left standing.

If it turns into a grueling ground fight that goes the distance, I like Nelson.

If it lasts the distance on the feet without a lot of time spent in the clinch, I like Mir every day all day.

And, if Big Country is effective at smothering his foe in the clinch, I again like the former TUF winner.

If pressed to pick an outcome, I like Mir by decision after a hard-fought, standup-focused affair. We’ll see if I’m correct.

Quinton Jackson versus Matt Hamill.

Former UFC light heavyweight champion versus an alumnus of the hit reality show, The Ultimate Fighter.

On a UFC 130 card filled with intriguing bouts, it certainly is the matchup with the most at stake. No question about that.

Jackson is desperate to return to the top of the 205-pound mountain, and he wants to regain his title far more than he will ever admit. Defeating fellow former champ Lyoto Machida his last time out put the man called “Rampage” in prime position to enjoy a five-round bout if he can only rack up another win or two.

Hamill is in the midst of a five fight winning streak. There aren’t many top light heavies that boast a longer current run of success. Granted, one of those wins was by disqualification in a bout that saw Hamill get completely dominated. No matter.  A win is a win.

The former reality show contestant erased some of the sour taste of that win (over current champion Jon Jones) his last time out by handing former champion Tito Ortiz a thorough beating. Hamill knows that a win over Jackson propels him into rarified 205-pound air, possibly swapping places with Jackson on the short list of possible future title challengers.

The fight between Jackson and Hamill will likely be decided by one or two questions. First, can the former collegiate wrestler take down the former UFC champion? If answered in the negative, Hamill has virtually no shot at winning, other than looking for a lottery-winning strike.

If answered in the affirmative, a second question arises. Can Hamill keep Jackson on his back or repeatedly put him there? If answered in the negative, the outcome will almost certainly favor Jackson. If answered in the positive, then the three-time Division III National Champion will score one of the biggest upsets of 2011.

I know. I know. Lots of recent fights have come down to those very questions. Mixed martial arts is one of the most difficult sports to handicap because of the multitude of outcomes. Yet, fights often are decided by the lone question of whether the fight remains on the feet or unfolds largely on the ground. This fight is no different.

Fortunately for Jackson, Hamill has shown an overwhelming preference for standing and boxing with his opponents early in fights. He seems to have fallen in love with his hands since his days on TUF. That is good for the excitement meter. Not so much when it comes to facing Jackson.

The former UFC light heavyweight champion is one of the best pure boxers in the division. His punches are thrown crisply and explosively. He can lead behind the jab or sit back and counter with the best of them. And Jackson possesses legitimate one-punch knockout power in both hands. Mix in his ability to slip punches and it is easy to see why he prefers to stand and bang with opponents.

Standing and banging is just what the doctor ordered against Hamill. Despite his love of fighting on the feet, Hamill is a neophyte striker compared to Jackson. He fires his jab with a hitch, slightly cocking his left before letting it go.

Jackson has the skills to take full advantage of that fault in Hamill’s delivery. With his superior hand speed, Jackson can remain active with feints and jabs of his own, until he sees the hitch. At that moment, he should fire a right hand straight down the center. Maybe he slips slightly to his own right first, in which case he would fire the right over Hamill’s jab. But that added bit of complexity is not necessary. Not with Jackson’s speed.

The fight will come to an abrupt, painful end if Jackson is able to land one of those rights on the button. Hamill has a great chin. He has only suffered one loss by knockout. That occurred at the hands of another former champion, Rich Franklin, though it was due to a liver kick to the body, not a punch to the jaw.

It is safe to say, though, that Hamill has never faced anyone with Jackson’s show-stopping power. Granite jaw. Titanium jaw. Adamantium jaw. It doesn’t matter. Jackson can put his stamp on any substance coating another man’s mandible.

Of course, Jackson has far more in his arsenal than just a big right hand. Wanderlei Silva can testify to the effectiveness of his left hook. Actually, he probably has no recollection of the punch that separated him from consciousness. It was picture perfect. Check out the video. I guarantee Hamill has seen it and knows what is in store if he recklessly circles to his own right with his hands low, something else he has a tendency to do in fights.

So, what does Hamill have to do to get the fight to the ground? Again, somewhat unfortunately for the former TUF star, he must engage Jackson on the feet long enough to make the former champion believe that he is not interested in a takedown. Once Jackson gets comfortable with the fact that Hamill isn’t going to shoot, he will begin loading up on his punches, particularly lead left hooks. That is one of Jackson’s less desirable tendencies when he faces a fighter he doesn’t respect on the feet.

Unnecessarily loading up on lead power punches typically means that the attacker is winding up. Hamill isn’t the fastest light heavy in the sport, but he has good quicks for a big man. He is certainly quick enough to change levels and shoot underneath a punch thrown from halfway across the country. The tell sign will be Jackson loading up on his left side just before he uncorks his left hook. Hamill should shoot as soon as he sees that happen.

Haphazard takedown attempts will result in nothing. If Hamill comes out shooting recklessly, he will run into an uppercut, yet another shot in Jackson’s arsenal that he can use to turn out the lights in a split second.  Well disguised takedown attempts or those triggered off of Jackson over committing, a la Rashad Evans, are a great way to penetrate one of the better takedown defenses in the division.

Once on the ground, Hamill should forget about passing the guard. He is not a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu guy. Attempting to pass will do nothing other than open the door for Jackson to scramble back to his feet. Hamill should instead pound away inside Jackson’s guard. Use punches and elbows to soften up the knockout puncher. Don’t get crazy. Just remain active so there isn’t a standup.

It reads simple enough. Each man has a very clear blueprint to winning the fight. But, alas, fights rarely go as predicted. Who knows? Hamill may land a big right hand of his own, which could prompt Jackson to revert back to his PRIDE days and look for a huge slam. That could devolve the action into a battle fought from the clinch. I still like Jackson in that scenario, but not nearly as much as I do when the fight is more of a boxing match.

Note that I keep referring to the standup as a boxing contest not because I forgot that kicks are an integral part of finding standup success in an MMA bout but because these two rarely throw kicks. Hamill is more likely to fire off a high kick than his foe. But I doubt kicks will play any significance in the outcome on Saturday night.

Who am I picking to win? This fight has RAMPAGE written all over it. In some ways, Hamill is tailor made for him. The problem, though, is that Jackson’s mind wanders, from time to time, when facing guys he believes that he should defeat. That can lead to trouble because, at the end of the day, Hamill is a legitimate 205-pound contender, which means he can defeat anyone on any given day.

A record-setting crowd. Two great champions survive adversity. The last look at a living legend. And more than half-a-million in “of the night” bonuses.

I’d say UFC 129 was a smashing success.

YOU TELL ME WHAT HE SHOULD DO NEXT

Georges St-Pierre did something that I thought was next to impossible on Saturday night. He made Jake Shields appear fairly ordinary as a fighter. Make no mistake about it. Shields is far from ordinary, which demonstrates just how great GSP really is at this point in his career.

I honestly cannot think of a single welterweight in the world, whether inside or outside of the UFC, that makes for an interesting matchup with GSP. Strikeforce champion Nick Diaz is certainly a marketable opponent, one that GSP would take very seriously as a credible threat. Nonetheless, the Canadian superstar would enter that bout as the overwhelming favorite because, on paper, at least, GSP has the perfect blend of calm, technical striking and dominant wrestling ability to give Diaz fits.

There is literally nobody else in the division that is likely to get GSP’s attention as an opponent.  Josh Koscheck. Jon Fitch. BJ Penn. Matt Hughes. Thiago Alves. Dan Hardy. And now, Jake Shields. Been there done that. None of them were close enough to defeating the champion (excluding Hughes-GSP I, of course) to warrant another turn on the dance floor. Carlos Condit is probably the most deserving of a title shot, assuming he gets past Dong Hyun Kim in July.  Jake Ellenberger probably stands next in line after Condit if he keeps winning.

Does anyone believe that either Condit or Ellenberger have better than a long shot chance at dethroning the most successful welterweight champion of all time? No disrespect to either man because both certainly have the tools to unseat the champion if he is at less than his very best. Still, they will be very healthy underdogs, if they ever get a shot at GSP.

After Condit and Ellenberger? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe Martin Kampmann or Mike Swick will put together a nice winning streak and earn a shot at gold. Maybe there is someone else out there who will materialize out of thin air. But I cannot think of a single fighter that I would label as anywhere close to a “pick’em” opponent for GSP.

It seems to me that GSP will hold the welterweight championship for as long as he wants, assuming he remains motivated and properly prepares for each fight. Anything can happen on any given Saturday in the UFC, but GSP seems like a lock to run his number of successful title defenses into the teens or better, if he remains focused.  

The question, of course, is whether GSP should remain content to hammer out successful title defense after successful title defense in the welterweight division now that it is clear that he is the most dominant welterweight fighter to ever step into the Octagon. Or, should GSP seek to push himself to the limit by moving up in weight to take on bigger and more dangerous foes, namely fellow pound-for-pound czar Anderson Silva.

There are unique risks and rewards to each scenario. I will delve deeply into those soon enough. Right now, I’m more interested in learning what the UFC.com readers think GSP should do.

SHIELDS PROVES HIS METTLE

I am obviously a bit surprised that Shields was not able to score a single takedown during the five-round fight with GSP. But I am more surprised that he was able to win two out of five rounds, according to two of the judges, doing nothing more than boxing.

For the record, I scored the fight 50-45 for GSP.  No matter. Two judges saw it differently, so Shields becomes the first fighter since August 25, 2007 to get the better of the champion during a five-minute stretch of competition. And he did it with what is unquestionably the weakest part of his game.

Sure, GSP was fighting most of the fight with one eye.  That is the sort of handicap that lesser men could not overcome. But Shields found success nonetheless.

Shields’ effort, though coming up short, proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is among the best welterweights in the world, if not the second best. Nothing about the fight warrants a quick rematch, but it does open the door for all sorts of interesting matchups for the Cesar Gracie standout. I don’t know about anyone else, but I would love to see Shields and Penn do battle. Shields-Koscheck, Shields-Alves or Shields-Fitch are all intriguing bouts.

If GSP decides to leave the comforts of the welterweight division for a run 15 pounds to the north, any of those bouts would result in a worthy contest for crowning a new king.

THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES, CHAMP

Twenty years from now nobody will remember the crane kick. A few will remember that Randy Couture lost his final UFC bout, assuming that Saturday was, in fact, his final UFC bout. But it won’t matter. Most all-time greats leave the game on less-than-perfect terms.

The world will instead remember his five separate stints as a UFC champion. The world will remember him as the first man to ever win titles in two different UFC weight classes. The world will remember him as the first man to win a world title after turning 40. The world will remember him as a Hall of Famer, one who actually won a title after his induction.

“Captain America” helped carry the sport through its dark years. You know, back in the day when only a few thousand people showed up to watch an event. Back when bouts were not shown on cable television and the sport was banned in most states.

It is fitting that Couture chose to make his final appearance at the biggest event in the history of North America. It is equally fitting that Couture didn’t make a big deal out of his decision to retire, opting instead to step aside gracefully in the shadow of another man rewriting UFC history by setting the record for most-consecutive successful defenses of the welterweight title, Georges St-Pierre.

Maybe Couture’s modest approach was due to the fact that he retired once before. The champ called it quits after losing for a second time, both by brutal knockout, to Chuck Liddell back in early 2006. He returned just over a year later to recapture the heavyweight crown for a third time – also a current UFC record.

Something tells me that this retirement will be different. There is a sense of finality about the way Couture went about his decision to walk away from the sport. Couture will probably never fully leave, as he continues to operate his chain of training centers, Xtreme Couture, and train and corner fighters. If, indeed, Saturday was the final time that we get the privilege of watching “The Natural” compete, then I have three simple words:

Thank you, champ.

DON’T READ TOO MUCH INTO ALDO’S “PERFORMANCE”

Many fight cognoscenti consider UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo to be just a step or two behind GSP and Silva in the race for pound-for-pound supremacy. 24 hours after he survived a very game, very gritty challenger in Mark Hominick, those same individuals are claiming Aldo might not be as good as previously thought.

This is the sort of thing that really irks me. Think of how disrespectful it is to Hominick to suggest that Aldo’s greatness is affected by the fact that Hominick survived five rounds, even dominating the last of those five.

Aldo is the same 145-pound beast that he was a week ago. Hominick is just better than most realize, and he matches up very well with the Brazilian. Remember that styles make fights. That is why the fight was so difficult for Aldo, not some crazy notion that his skills are slipping or that he was previously overrated.

TAKING RISKS LEADS TO MAJOR REWARDS

Pablo Garza and Lyoto Machida are two very different fighters. But the pair shared one commonality on Saturday night. Each man took a calculated gamble by attempting a flashy high risk and high reward maneuver, and it paid off athletically and financially.

Garza was getting soundly beaten through the first several minutes of his bout. Yves Jabouin had his number on the feet. Garza, undeterred, continued searching for a way to win, and as soon as he was able to secure some semblance of a Thai plumb, he uncorked a flying triangle choke that brought the bout to a rapid close.

The move had to be perfectly executed. If not, Garza would have found himself on his back getting punched in the face. That is an almost surefire way to meet defeat against a puncher like Jabouin.

Machida appeared to be comfortably winning his fight with Couture through the first round. Yet, he opted to fire a crane kick reminiscent of the decades old movie “The Karate Kid.” Like with Garza, Machida had to perfectly execute the strike. If not, the door would have been wide open for Couture to score a takedown, which was his only true way to win the fight. Machida has a very effective guard, but would anyone actually bet against Couture winning if he put the Brazilian on his back?

Those calculated risks paid off big time for both Garza and Machida. In addition to bringing an end to the fight, the flashy moves earned each man a whopping $129,000 bonus check. Hopefully that will make other fighters stand up and take notice because the financial reward for a spectacular finish is worth risking the outcome of the fight for all but the sport’s biggest stars.