UFC 155 Musings – Part II – Raising Cain

UFC 155 - Velasquez vs. Dos Santos IIVELASQUEZ LEAVES NO DOUBTS

Cain Velasquez needed to do something special if he was to forever erase the memory of his first fight with Junior dos Santos. His virtuoso performance last Saturday night accomplished that goal.

The fight was as beautiful as it was brutal – one man savagely destroying another in the purest form of competition. It was the single most complete 25-minute beating that I’ve ever witnessed in a heavyweight mixed martial arts bout.

I’ve watched the fight nine times already. Each time, I look for moments where dos Santos finds some modicum of success. Each time, I fail to see it. Velasquez systematically took apart an opponent who many believed to be unbeatable, and he did it without ever giving dos Santos even the slightest glimmer of hope that the tide would change at any point during the bout.

It was pure annihilation.

The fact that the fight lasted the full 25 minutes should not be a criticism against the completeness of Velasquez’s performance. Any argument to the contrary is completely ridiculous. He tried to get JDS out of there. The now former champion’s enormous heart and amazing fighting spirit were the reasons why the bout went the distance. He refused to succumb to the carnage, period. That leaves me just as awe-inspired as the greatness of Velasquez’s performance.

WILL THIS FIGHT HAVE LINGERING EFFECTS ON JDS?

Ask yourself this question:

Who would you rather be right now—Velasquez following his sudden, one-punch knockout loss in a fight that lasted a mere 64 seconds or dos Santos after surviving 25 minutes of a one-sided bout that leaves you looking unrecognizable from the way you did before the opening bell and your opponent with nary a mark on his face?

That is an easy one for me to answer. I’d much rather live through the adversity that Velasquez suffered than the annihilation experienced by dos Santos. Fighters can chalk up the former to lie in the fight game after making a mistake. The latter leads to no conclusion other than the guy that just handed out the beating is truly the better fighter.

Only time will tell whether the loss will have any lingering effects on JDS in future fights. Some guys never fully recover mentally from a beating like that. The broken bones, cuts and bruises certainly heal. It’s the damage to the psyche; the permanent loss of an internal belief of invincibility.

For my money, if anyone can recover from a loss like that, it is Junior dos Santos. I think he will be just fine when he resumes his assault on the heavyweight division in all instances except one. It’s tough for me to believe that the loss won’t impact his confidence, even if just a little bit, if he receives a third opportunity against Velasquez.  

I’m not suggesting that dos Santos can’t topple the champion in a rubber match. All I’m suggesting is the butterflies will be just a little larger the next time they meet. And if a third fight starts off like the second, there is a very real chance that déjà vu will set in.

SHOULD WE RUN IT BACK?

My good friend and editor Thomas Gerbasi remarked after the fight that the results had him clamoring for a rubber match. I can certainly understand that perspective. Many believe that JDS was never truly in danger after the second round. Many of those folks kept expecting him to get his second wind and score an improbable come-from-behind knockout win.

I’m not among them.

I thought Velasquez basically toyed with dos Santos in the championship rounds. Again, that was the most complete and thorough shellacking I’ve ever witnessed in a five-round heavyweight fight. It was so one-sided that there is no doubt in my mind that a rematch would unfold in largely the same way. Sure, JDS always has a puncher’s chance. If they fought 10 times, he would win more than once by knockout. But Velasquez wins the vast majority of the bouts. I truly believe that.

Of course, I’m not suggesting that the pair should never fight again. Not by a mile. Instead, I think that JDS should string together a couple of impressive wins to both build up the confidence he undoubtedly lost on Saturday night, as well as building greater and greater interest for a rematch.

Dos Santos is the kind of guy who looks like the apex predator when he wins. Think about it. Have you ever thought anything other than “this guy is unbeatable” after any of his UFC bouts, Saturday night being the lone exception? I know that is precisely what went through my mind each time I watched him win.

Scoring two or three impressive knockouts will erase (or at least dramatically fade) the memory of his annihilation at UFC 155, and then the former champion can begin asking for his rightful rubber match. The UFC can replay images of the knockout from the first fight. Fans will begin salivating. The rubber match will then be an enormous event in 2014, assuming Velasquez can hold on to the strap for that long.

HEAVYWEIGHT LANDSCAPE

If an instant rematch with dos Santos isn’t in the cards, then who is next?

The UFC heavyweight division is getting deeper all the time. The current top five likely includes dos Santos, Overeem, Fabricio Werdum, Frank Mir and transitioning Strikeforce champion Daniel Cormier.

A bout with Overeem is long overdue. The former Strikeforce champion earned his right to fight for the title when he sent Brock Lesnar into retirement in his Octagon debut. He was on the backburner for most of 2012, but now that the calendar reads 2013, it’s time for “The Reem” to get back to business.

Overeem will face fellow Strikeforce transplant Antonio Silva on February 2 at UFC 156. Assuming Overeem wins, which he should, he seems like the most likely next in line for a shot at Velasquez.

Mir is also an interesting prospect for a title shot. The former champion presents an interesting challenge for Velasquez because of his size, vastly improved striking, and what I believe to be the best jiu jitsu in the heavyweight world. Werdum just cringed, by the way.

The big question in this matchup is whether Velasquez can dominate Mir on the feet the same way he did dos Santos. If so, then he will blow out Mir, because the Las Vegas native can’t take down the champion. No way. No how.

If, however, Mir finds some success against Velasquez on the feet, then things get extremely interesting. The champ will certainly be able to take the fight to the ground at will. But I’m not sure Velasquez wants any part of a ground fight with Mir.

Is Mir the perfect stylistic foil for Velasquez? Something tells me that we will find out sometime in 2013, possibly after Velasquez-Overeem.

Werdum probably believes that he has the best heavyweight ground game in the world. I may have co-signed on that comment a year ago. But after watching Mir break Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s arm, I was convinced to the contrary. Regardless, Werdum isn’t far behind.

Velasquez-Werdum would be a carbon copy fight to Velasquez-Mir, except for the fact that Mir has better standup. That differentiator probably means Velasquez would have a much easier time with the Brazilian. Then again, I could be completely nuts.

We can forget about Velasquez facing Cormier any time soon. The two are training partners and close friends. The former Olympian cornered Velasquez in his fight against dos Santos. That tells you all you need to know about the odds that the two will suddenly decide to put on the little gloves and go full speed against each other.

But that probably isn’t a bad thing for Cormier. He certainly has the explosive power in his right hand to stop Velasquez or anyone else. And he is the lone heavyweight in the UFC with better wrestling than the champion. Thus, he presents an interesting challenge. Yet, I think Velasquez beats him more often than not simply because of the size differential.

Cormier is a tiny heavyweight, one who is perfectly suited to drop to 205 pounds. His close friend standing atop the heavyweight mountain could be just what the doctor ordered to inspire Cormier to drop down in weight. That is the sort of decision that could change him from just another good competitor to a guy with serious long-term championship potential.

What do you think? Who do you want to see Velasquez fight next? I’ll be reading the comments, as always.

UFC 155 - Velasquez vs. Dos Santos IIVELASQUEZ LEAVES NO DOUBTS

Cain Velasquez needed to do something special if he was to forever erase the memory of his first fight with Junior dos Santos. His virtuoso performance last Saturday night accomplished that goal.

The fight was as beautiful as it was brutal – one man savagely destroying another in the purest form of competition. It was the single most complete 25-minute beating that I’ve ever witnessed in a heavyweight mixed martial arts bout.

I’ve watched the fight nine times already. Each time, I look for moments where dos Santos finds some modicum of success. Each time, I fail to see it. Velasquez systematically took apart an opponent who many believed to be unbeatable, and he did it without ever giving dos Santos even the slightest glimmer of hope that the tide would change at any point during the bout.

It was pure annihilation.

The fact that the fight lasted the full 25 minutes should not be a criticism against the completeness of Velasquez’s performance. Any argument to the contrary is completely ridiculous. He tried to get JDS out of there. The now former champion’s enormous heart and amazing fighting spirit were the reasons why the bout went the distance. He refused to succumb to the carnage, period. That leaves me just as awe-inspired as the greatness of Velasquez’s performance.

WILL THIS FIGHT HAVE LINGERING EFFECTS ON JDS?

Ask yourself this question:

Who would you rather be right now—Velasquez following his sudden, one-punch knockout loss in a fight that lasted a mere 64 seconds or dos Santos after surviving 25 minutes of a one-sided bout that leaves you looking unrecognizable from the way you did before the opening bell and your opponent with nary a mark on his face?

That is an easy one for me to answer. I’d much rather live through the adversity that Velasquez suffered than the annihilation experienced by dos Santos. Fighters can chalk up the former to lie in the fight game after making a mistake. The latter leads to no conclusion other than the guy that just handed out the beating is truly the better fighter.

Only time will tell whether the loss will have any lingering effects on JDS in future fights. Some guys never fully recover mentally from a beating like that. The broken bones, cuts and bruises certainly heal. It’s the damage to the psyche; the permanent loss of an internal belief of invincibility.

For my money, if anyone can recover from a loss like that, it is Junior dos Santos. I think he will be just fine when he resumes his assault on the heavyweight division in all instances except one. It’s tough for me to believe that the loss won’t impact his confidence, even if just a little bit, if he receives a third opportunity against Velasquez.  

I’m not suggesting that dos Santos can’t topple the champion in a rubber match. All I’m suggesting is the butterflies will be just a little larger the next time they meet. And if a third fight starts off like the second, there is a very real chance that déjà vu will set in.

SHOULD WE RUN IT BACK?

My good friend and editor Thomas Gerbasi remarked after the fight that the results had him clamoring for a rubber match. I can certainly understand that perspective. Many believe that JDS was never truly in danger after the second round. Many of those folks kept expecting him to get his second wind and score an improbable come-from-behind knockout win.

I’m not among them.

I thought Velasquez basically toyed with dos Santos in the championship rounds. Again, that was the most complete and thorough shellacking I’ve ever witnessed in a five-round heavyweight fight. It was so one-sided that there is no doubt in my mind that a rematch would unfold in largely the same way. Sure, JDS always has a puncher’s chance. If they fought 10 times, he would win more than once by knockout. But Velasquez wins the vast majority of the bouts. I truly believe that.

Of course, I’m not suggesting that the pair should never fight again. Not by a mile. Instead, I think that JDS should string together a couple of impressive wins to both build up the confidence he undoubtedly lost on Saturday night, as well as building greater and greater interest for a rematch.

Dos Santos is the kind of guy who looks like the apex predator when he wins. Think about it. Have you ever thought anything other than “this guy is unbeatable” after any of his UFC bouts, Saturday night being the lone exception? I know that is precisely what went through my mind each time I watched him win.

Scoring two or three impressive knockouts will erase (or at least dramatically fade) the memory of his annihilation at UFC 155, and then the former champion can begin asking for his rightful rubber match. The UFC can replay images of the knockout from the first fight. Fans will begin salivating. The rubber match will then be an enormous event in 2014, assuming Velasquez can hold on to the strap for that long.

HEAVYWEIGHT LANDSCAPE

If an instant rematch with dos Santos isn’t in the cards, then who is next?

The UFC heavyweight division is getting deeper all the time. The current top five likely includes dos Santos, Overeem, Fabricio Werdum, Frank Mir and transitioning Strikeforce champion Daniel Cormier.

A bout with Overeem is long overdue. The former Strikeforce champion earned his right to fight for the title when he sent Brock Lesnar into retirement in his Octagon debut. He was on the backburner for most of 2012, but now that the calendar reads 2013, it’s time for “The Reem” to get back to business.

Overeem will face fellow Strikeforce transplant Antonio Silva on February 2 at UFC 156. Assuming Overeem wins, which he should, he seems like the most likely next in line for a shot at Velasquez.

Mir is also an interesting prospect for a title shot. The former champion presents an interesting challenge for Velasquez because of his size, vastly improved striking, and what I believe to be the best jiu jitsu in the heavyweight world. Werdum just cringed, by the way.

The big question in this matchup is whether Velasquez can dominate Mir on the feet the same way he did dos Santos. If so, then he will blow out Mir, because the Las Vegas native can’t take down the champion. No way. No how.

If, however, Mir finds some success against Velasquez on the feet, then things get extremely interesting. The champ will certainly be able to take the fight to the ground at will. But I’m not sure Velasquez wants any part of a ground fight with Mir.

Is Mir the perfect stylistic foil for Velasquez? Something tells me that we will find out sometime in 2013, possibly after Velasquez-Overeem.

Werdum probably believes that he has the best heavyweight ground game in the world. I may have co-signed on that comment a year ago. But after watching Mir break Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s arm, I was convinced to the contrary. Regardless, Werdum isn’t far behind.

Velasquez-Werdum would be a carbon copy fight to Velasquez-Mir, except for the fact that Mir has better standup. That differentiator probably means Velasquez would have a much easier time with the Brazilian. Then again, I could be completely nuts.

We can forget about Velasquez facing Cormier any time soon. The two are training partners and close friends. The former Olympian cornered Velasquez in his fight against dos Santos. That tells you all you need to know about the odds that the two will suddenly decide to put on the little gloves and go full speed against each other.

But that probably isn’t a bad thing for Cormier. He certainly has the explosive power in his right hand to stop Velasquez or anyone else. And he is the lone heavyweight in the UFC with better wrestling than the champion. Thus, he presents an interesting challenge. Yet, I think Velasquez beats him more often than not simply because of the size differential.

Cormier is a tiny heavyweight, one who is perfectly suited to drop to 205 pounds. His close friend standing atop the heavyweight mountain could be just what the doctor ordered to inspire Cormier to drop down in weight. That is the sort of decision that could change him from just another good competitor to a guy with serious long-term championship potential.

What do you think? Who do you want to see Velasquez fight next? I’ll be reading the comments, as always.

UFC 155 Musings – Part I

UFC 155 - Miller vs. LauzonMILLER-LAUZON EXCEEDS THE HYPE

Styles make fights. That is an undeniable reality of combat sports. Yet, a great stylistic matchup doesn’t guarantee a great fight. It only guarantees the possibility of a great fight. Two men must still make the affirmative decision to fight with passion and a bit of recklessness to get a potentially great fight to live up to the hype.

Jim Miller and Joe Lauzon had all the ingredients for a great fight. Both men are aggressive, confident fighters who love to get in there and mix it up. Both prefer to work for submissions, rather than playing it safe, once the fight goes to the ground. And both have extremely deep gas tanks.

Everyone expected the bout to be the fight of the night, which is why the lightweight bout was elevated to feature-bout status, second only to the heavyweight championship bout between Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez. I don’t know if anyone expected the fight to be as great as it turned out to be.

Miller dished out a savage beating in the first round. He hammered Lauzon seemingly at will for the full five minutes. By the end of the round, Lauzon was left in a bloody heap looking a bit dazed and confused. I actually can’t recall a fighter losing more blood than Lauzon did in the opening five minutes and still continuing to fight on.

The second and third rounds were great examples of the human spirit. Lauzon gave as good as he got for the most part, despite leaking fluid like a rusted-out clunker. Miller was completely exhausted and covered in his opponent’s blood. Yet, he kept attacking. It was mixed martial arts at its finest.

This was one of those fights where there is a technical winner, but neither man was a loser. Not by a mile. Both raised their standing in the deep lightweight division, and I can’t wait to tune in the next time each of those guys steps into the cage.

COSTA STEPS OUT OF THE SHADOWS

Costa Philippou is quietly putting together one heck of a middleweight resume. He is now perfect in his last five fights, including his impressive third-round stoppage win over top contender Tim Boetsch. It is impossible to ignore this guy anymore as a legitimate title contender. Granted, he hasn’t shown much of a ground game yet. And his takedown defense still needs some work. But his standup is incredible.

Mark Munoz would be an interesting next test for him. Can he stop the “Filipino Wrecking Machine” from taking him down? A bout versus the winner of Brian Stann and Wanderlei Silva would be a fan-friendly affair that would really showcase the skills of the winner, since all three men matchup extremely well with each other stylistically. The same can be said for a bout versus the loser of the upcoming bout between elite middleweights Vitor Belfort and Michael Bisping.

Whatever is the case, guys in the middleweight division need to start paying attention to Philippou because it seems like he is here to stay.

OKAMI DOESN’T HELP HIS CAUSE WITH THE WIN

I’ll keep this one short and to the point. Yushin Okami is one of the best middleweights in the world. It takes one heck of a fighter to completely control Alan Belcher like he did on Saturday night. But that win won’t do anything to move him closer to his ultimate goal of securing another shot at UFC gold. Why? No submission attempts, despite the fact that several presented themselves. No aggressive ground and pound, despite the fact that Okami was in the perfect position time and time again to really lay some wood on Belcher. And no love from the crowd, which voiced its displeasure at this conservative approach.

Okami earned the win, but he definitely laid an egg in the process. The kind of egg that likely stalled his ascent back up the 185-pound ranks, at least for now.

WAS IT RING RUST OR THE ACCUMULATION OF MANY HARD MILES?

Derek Brunson should have been tailor made for Chris Leben to reestablish himself in the middleweight division. Brunson is an excellent wrestler, but he lacks the submission wizardry to tap a guy with Leben’s ground game. And he certainly doesn’t have the technique or pop to knock out a guy with arguably the sturdiest beard in the game.

Mix in the fact that Brunson also agreed to the fight on extremely short notice, so cardio was always going to be a major issue if the fight lasted beyond the first round. Lastly, it was Brunson’s UFC debut, so an adrenalin dump was almost certain to happen, further sapping whatever limited cardio Brunson possessed.

This fight had Chris Leben highlight-reel knockout written all over it. Someone obviously forgot to send both fighters that memo prior to Saturday night. Instead of a spectacular Leben win, Brunson ground out a respectable yeoman-like decision by throwing just enough strikes to open the door for takedowns and then using his great wrestling skills to neutralize Leben on the ground.

Sure, it was a bit tiresome to watch. But people should not vilify Brunson for the outcome. The guy was exhausted after just a few minutes of competition, which was to be expected. Yet, he was able to scratch out a win.

That wouldn’t have been possible, if Leben was at his best on Saturday night. The problem, of course, was the “Cat Smasher” (yeah, I prefer his old moniker, those who regularly read this column are well versed in that fact) was far from his best.

Leben looked like he was fighting in slow motion. The opportunities to land big punches abounded throughout the fight. Leben saw them, too. He just couldn’t pull the trigger on his nuclear left hand. Instead, he repeatedly telegraphed that he was about to throw a bomb and then released a dud in the form of a slow arm punch.

I don’t know why Leben was so sluggish and slow on Saturday night. Was it the 13-month absence from the cage following his 2011 suspension? That is certainly a good possibility. It is tough for anyone to stay out of action for that long. The pressure to perform and the lack of fight-speed muscle memory often combine for less than stellar results.

Or is Leben starting to physically break down after 20 fights in the UFC? The guy isn’t old by modern-day athletic standards. But Leben is an extremely old 32. This guy has been in a ton of back-and-forth wars during his nearly eight-year UFC career. Those wars take a lot of tread off the tires. It’s oftentimes tread that never comes back, either.

Hard living outside the cage certainly hasn’t helped matters, either. Leben’s personal demons are well chronicled, so there is no reason to rehash them here.

Leben has now lost three of his last four fights, and he didn’t look even remotely good in any of those losses. Of course, he also defeated Wanderlei Silva during that stretch in what many probably view as a career-best performance for him. That is what confuses the issue.

Is the excess mileage starting to accumulate to the point where Leben is on the downside of his great career? Was Saturday just an off night due to inactivity or other factors? Will Leben get back to his old cat smashing ways the next time he steps into the Octagon?

I don’t know. I wonder if Leben himself knows at this point.

GARCIA PROVES THAT EFFORT IS AS IMPORTANT AS RESULTS FOR UFC JOB SECURITY

Leonard Garcia came into his fight with Max Holloway having lost his last three fights and four of his last five. He continued his tough stretch on Saturday night, dropping an ultra-close split decision to young prospect Max Holloway.

Very few fighters receive another opportunity in the UFC after experiencing such a string of results. Instead, they are almost always sent packing to polish their game and build their confidence in mid-major shows. It then typically takes a fairly impressive run of wins before the fighter finds himself back in the Octagon.

Garcia, however, won’t have to stride down that well travelled path before his next UFC fight, according to UFC President Dana White. Why? The answer to that is as obvious as the nose on your face, if you have had the pleasure of watching Garcia compete during his recent run of tough outcomes. This kid is as fun to watch as anyone in the sport, and this is the fight business, after all.

White, who grew up an avid boxing fan, has always had a special place in his heart for blood-and-guts warriors. He loved watching Arturo Gatti, who was truly just an above-average professional boxer, but was must-see TV because of his never-say-die, caution-to-the-wind style. Gatti never quit. He never played it safe in search of a win. And he always made sure fans received full value for spending their hard-earned dollars to watch him compete.

Garcia is definitely cut from that same cloth, so he will not be released from his contract, despite the four-fight losing streak. I’m guessing that makes the bitter taste of defeat just a little more tolerable right about now.

UFC 155 - Miller vs. LauzonMILLER-LAUZON EXCEEDS THE HYPE

Styles make fights. That is an undeniable reality of combat sports. Yet, a great stylistic matchup doesn’t guarantee a great fight. It only guarantees the possibility of a great fight. Two men must still make the affirmative decision to fight with passion and a bit of recklessness to get a potentially great fight to live up to the hype.

Jim Miller and Joe Lauzon had all the ingredients for a great fight. Both men are aggressive, confident fighters who love to get in there and mix it up. Both prefer to work for submissions, rather than playing it safe, once the fight goes to the ground. And both have extremely deep gas tanks.

Everyone expected the bout to be the fight of the night, which is why the lightweight bout was elevated to feature-bout status, second only to the heavyweight championship bout between Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez. I don’t know if anyone expected the fight to be as great as it turned out to be.

Miller dished out a savage beating in the first round. He hammered Lauzon seemingly at will for the full five minutes. By the end of the round, Lauzon was left in a bloody heap looking a bit dazed and confused. I actually can’t recall a fighter losing more blood than Lauzon did in the opening five minutes and still continuing to fight on.

The second and third rounds were great examples of the human spirit. Lauzon gave as good as he got for the most part, despite leaking fluid like a rusted-out clunker. Miller was completely exhausted and covered in his opponent’s blood. Yet, he kept attacking. It was mixed martial arts at its finest.

This was one of those fights where there is a technical winner, but neither man was a loser. Not by a mile. Both raised their standing in the deep lightweight division, and I can’t wait to tune in the next time each of those guys steps into the cage.

COSTA STEPS OUT OF THE SHADOWS

Costa Philippou is quietly putting together one heck of a middleweight resume. He is now perfect in his last five fights, including his impressive third-round stoppage win over top contender Tim Boetsch. It is impossible to ignore this guy anymore as a legitimate title contender. Granted, he hasn’t shown much of a ground game yet. And his takedown defense still needs some work. But his standup is incredible.

Mark Munoz would be an interesting next test for him. Can he stop the “Filipino Wrecking Machine” from taking him down? A bout versus the winner of Brian Stann and Wanderlei Silva would be a fan-friendly affair that would really showcase the skills of the winner, since all three men matchup extremely well with each other stylistically. The same can be said for a bout versus the loser of the upcoming bout between elite middleweights Vitor Belfort and Michael Bisping.

Whatever is the case, guys in the middleweight division need to start paying attention to Philippou because it seems like he is here to stay.

OKAMI DOESN’T HELP HIS CAUSE WITH THE WIN

I’ll keep this one short and to the point. Yushin Okami is one of the best middleweights in the world. It takes one heck of a fighter to completely control Alan Belcher like he did on Saturday night. But that win won’t do anything to move him closer to his ultimate goal of securing another shot at UFC gold. Why? No submission attempts, despite the fact that several presented themselves. No aggressive ground and pound, despite the fact that Okami was in the perfect position time and time again to really lay some wood on Belcher. And no love from the crowd, which voiced its displeasure at this conservative approach.

Okami earned the win, but he definitely laid an egg in the process. The kind of egg that likely stalled his ascent back up the 185-pound ranks, at least for now.

WAS IT RING RUST OR THE ACCUMULATION OF MANY HARD MILES?

Derek Brunson should have been tailor made for Chris Leben to reestablish himself in the middleweight division. Brunson is an excellent wrestler, but he lacks the submission wizardry to tap a guy with Leben’s ground game. And he certainly doesn’t have the technique or pop to knock out a guy with arguably the sturdiest beard in the game.

Mix in the fact that Brunson also agreed to the fight on extremely short notice, so cardio was always going to be a major issue if the fight lasted beyond the first round. Lastly, it was Brunson’s UFC debut, so an adrenalin dump was almost certain to happen, further sapping whatever limited cardio Brunson possessed.

This fight had Chris Leben highlight-reel knockout written all over it. Someone obviously forgot to send both fighters that memo prior to Saturday night. Instead of a spectacular Leben win, Brunson ground out a respectable yeoman-like decision by throwing just enough strikes to open the door for takedowns and then using his great wrestling skills to neutralize Leben on the ground.

Sure, it was a bit tiresome to watch. But people should not vilify Brunson for the outcome. The guy was exhausted after just a few minutes of competition, which was to be expected. Yet, he was able to scratch out a win.

That wouldn’t have been possible, if Leben was at his best on Saturday night. The problem, of course, was the “Cat Smasher” (yeah, I prefer his old moniker, those who regularly read this column are well versed in that fact) was far from his best.

Leben looked like he was fighting in slow motion. The opportunities to land big punches abounded throughout the fight. Leben saw them, too. He just couldn’t pull the trigger on his nuclear left hand. Instead, he repeatedly telegraphed that he was about to throw a bomb and then released a dud in the form of a slow arm punch.

I don’t know why Leben was so sluggish and slow on Saturday night. Was it the 13-month absence from the cage following his 2011 suspension? That is certainly a good possibility. It is tough for anyone to stay out of action for that long. The pressure to perform and the lack of fight-speed muscle memory often combine for less than stellar results.

Or is Leben starting to physically break down after 20 fights in the UFC? The guy isn’t old by modern-day athletic standards. But Leben is an extremely old 32. This guy has been in a ton of back-and-forth wars during his nearly eight-year UFC career. Those wars take a lot of tread off the tires. It’s oftentimes tread that never comes back, either.

Hard living outside the cage certainly hasn’t helped matters, either. Leben’s personal demons are well chronicled, so there is no reason to rehash them here.

Leben has now lost three of his last four fights, and he didn’t look even remotely good in any of those losses. Of course, he also defeated Wanderlei Silva during that stretch in what many probably view as a career-best performance for him. That is what confuses the issue.

Is the excess mileage starting to accumulate to the point where Leben is on the downside of his great career? Was Saturday just an off night due to inactivity or other factors? Will Leben get back to his old cat smashing ways the next time he steps into the Octagon?

I don’t know. I wonder if Leben himself knows at this point.

GARCIA PROVES THAT EFFORT IS AS IMPORTANT AS RESULTS FOR UFC JOB SECURITY

Leonard Garcia came into his fight with Max Holloway having lost his last three fights and four of his last five. He continued his tough stretch on Saturday night, dropping an ultra-close split decision to young prospect Max Holloway.

Very few fighters receive another opportunity in the UFC after experiencing such a string of results. Instead, they are almost always sent packing to polish their game and build their confidence in mid-major shows. It then typically takes a fairly impressive run of wins before the fighter finds himself back in the Octagon.

Garcia, however, won’t have to stride down that well travelled path before his next UFC fight, according to UFC President Dana White. Why? The answer to that is as obvious as the nose on your face, if you have had the pleasure of watching Garcia compete during his recent run of tough outcomes. This kid is as fun to watch as anyone in the sport, and this is the fight business, after all.

White, who grew up an avid boxing fan, has always had a special place in his heart for blood-and-guts warriors. He loved watching Arturo Gatti, who was truly just an above-average professional boxer, but was must-see TV because of his never-say-die, caution-to-the-wind style. Gatti never quit. He never played it safe in search of a win. And he always made sure fans received full value for spending their hard-earned dollars to watch him compete.

Garcia is definitely cut from that same cloth, so he will not be released from his contract, despite the four-fight losing streak. I’m guessing that makes the bitter taste of defeat just a little more tolerable right about now.

The UFC 155 Blueprint – Junior dos Santos

UFC 155 - Dos Santos vs. Velasquez IIFour days after Christmas, reigning UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos puts his title on the line against the man he took it from 13 months ago, Cain Velasquez.

It is the perfect end to what has been an interesting year for the UFC.

Looking back for a moment, 2012 saw the successful return of the sport’s favorite son, Georges St-Pierre. Pound-for-pound kingpin Anderson Silva fought and won two bouts—one against heated rival Chael Sonnen and another on short notice 20 pounds north of his typical home to save a fight card from cancellation.

Four new champions were crowned. Well, three full champions and one, Renan Barao, who is of the interim type. Benson Henderson won and successfully defended the lightweight belt. Demetrious Johnson became the inaugural flyweight champ. And Ronda Rousey made history earlier this month by being crowned the first female champion (and first female to sign a fight contract with the UFC) when UFC President Dana White decided to convert her Strikeforce title into a shiny, new UFC belt.

That is one heck of a year. Saturday’s rematch between arguably the two best heavyweights of the last decade takes it over the top.

If that doesn’t get your pay-per-view purchasing finger a bit trigger happy, then someone needs to check your pulse.

Yesterday, we examined the keys to victory for the challenger. He needs to mix it up on the feet just enough to create the opportunity for a takedown and then sell out like there is no tomorrow. For the champion, his two biggest keys to victory are to remain active and fire his big right uppercut.

Velasquez is a high-octane fighter who uses lots of good footwork and lateral movement to create openings for his excellent strikes. When he gets comfortable on the feet, he is as dangerous as anyone with his punches and kicks, particularly when leading the action.

He might not be a truly devastating one-strike knockout artist like dos Santos, but he can stop anyone when he throws punches in bunches. Remember, we are talking about a 240-pound world-class athlete. When he hits, it hurts. Period.

Because Velasquez isn’t a great counterstriker, one of the best ways to keep him off balance is to take the fight to him. Dos Santos should walk him down with punches from bell to bell, always moving forward to the extent practical.

He largely did that in their first bout, and the results speak for themselves. The Brazilian won by knockout in just 64 seconds. It was a jaw-dropping performance by dos Santos, one that I quite honestly never saw coming.

In retrospect, however, it should have been somewhat obvious that a standup-only fight would favor dos Santos. After all, he is the best boxer in the heavyweight division—bar none. And his most effective weapon is the right uppercut.  

Make no mistake about it. Dos Santos can turn out the lights with a variety of strikes. He dropped Velasquez in their first bout with an overhand right that landed behind the ear. But he shouldn’t count on landing that strike again. Velasquez will be focused on taking it away by keeping his left hand very high and circling to his own right.

The high guard should neutralize the overhand right, but it leaves the challenger vulnerable to the right uppercut. The question is how to go about landing it.

The first, and most obvious, way is to fire it off the heels of a left hand. The Brazilian bomber has one of the best jabs in the division. He snaps it like a professional boxer, though unlike most boxers, it is not a range finder. Dos Santos’ jab causes very real damage, so it is a weapon in and of itself.

Dos Santos can jab and quickly fire a right uppercut up the middle. Velasquez will be so focused on keeping his left hand high that it is unlikely he will drop it to defend the jab.

The champion can also double up on the jab or throw one of his slick jab-left hook combinations before immediately cleaning up with his money punch. Those combinations should be particularly effective because the champion does not retreat straight back in the face of incoming fire, like most mixed martial artists. He instead stays in the pocket and moves his head and upper body like a pendulum to slip shots.

Like a pendulum, Velasquez returns to center after slipping a shot. Thus, if the double jab or jab-left hook miss, he could very well be front and center by the time the uppercut arrives.

But that isn’t the end of the challenger’s options with his favorite strike. He can also lead with the punch. As crazy as it sounds, dos Santos is extremely effective leading with his right uppercut. Most fighters don’t try that technique because it requires elite hand speed. Otherwise, it is fairly easy to counter by slipping left and firing a left hook.

Of course, dos Santos possesses elite hand speed, so he can effectively lead with a right uppercut without too much concern. He routinely lands that punch in just about every bout. I don’t see why Saturday night will be any different.

The one time that he may want to forget the right uppercut is when he is timing a Velasquez kick.  In that instance, he is better served firing his right straight down the middle.

Velasquez is an extremely slick kickboxer, with very few tell signs associated with his deep arsenal of strikes. The one notable exception is when he throws a left kick, whether to the inside of his opponent’s lead leg, body or head. The American Kickboxing Academy superstar always steps forward with his right foot before firing a kick with his left leg in order to set his hips to generate speed and power with the strike.

It is a quick shuffle step. But he does it every time. He doesn’t fire any other strike, other than a left kick, when he shuffle steps forward with his right foot.

Dos Santos can try to time Velasquez by stepping in and firing the right hand down the middle the second he sees the champion shuffle stepping forward. He must do it instantly in order to arrive at the target first. And he had better hope that Velasquez isn’t uncorking a high kick, because things could get ugly in that instance.

Nevertheless, the risk is worth the reward. Velasquez is a very durable, high-energy fighter that can go for days. It is unlikely that dos Santos will outlast Velasquez in a grueling five-round war, so he should be thinking stoppage within the first three rounds—or the first 64 seconds—just like in their last bout.

Defensively, dos Santos needs to always be mindful of defending the takedown. Velasquez is a former two-time Division I All-American collegiate wrestler. His wrestling chops are so strong that he was able to take down Brock Lesnar in his title winning affair, something very few people in the world can do.

He can remain in good position to defend the takedown by not over committing on his power punches. Selling out with haymakers is the best way to open the door for a takedown. Dos Santos should keep a solid base with his feet and focus on throwing fast, not necessarily hard, punches. If he does that, then he can rely on his biggest strength, his boxing skills.

I’m honestly not sure who should be the rightful favorite going into the rematch. Conventional wisdom suggests that the man who won the first fight by knockout tends to win the rematch as well. Velasquez might be hesitant because he will remember what happened the last time, and hesitation is the arch enemy of a fighter.

Then again, dos Santos might come out overconfident. Or maybe the first fight was a fluke.

We will all find out soon enough.

QUICK FACTS

Junior dos Santos
•    15-1
•    6’4, 240 lbs
•    77-inch reach
•    28 years old
•    10-fight winning streak (last loss on November 10, 2007)
•    73.3% of wins ended by strikes
•    13.3% of wins by submission, other than from strikes
•    13.3% of wins by decision
•    Knockout of the Night 3x
•    Current layoff is 217 days
•    Career long layoff is 308 days

UFC 155 - Dos Santos vs. Velasquez IIFour days after Christmas, reigning UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos puts his title on the line against the man he took it from 13 months ago, Cain Velasquez.

It is the perfect end to what has been an interesting year for the UFC.

Looking back for a moment, 2012 saw the successful return of the sport’s favorite son, Georges St-Pierre. Pound-for-pound kingpin Anderson Silva fought and won two bouts—one against heated rival Chael Sonnen and another on short notice 20 pounds north of his typical home to save a fight card from cancellation.

Four new champions were crowned. Well, three full champions and one, Renan Barao, who is of the interim type. Benson Henderson won and successfully defended the lightweight belt. Demetrious Johnson became the inaugural flyweight champ. And Ronda Rousey made history earlier this month by being crowned the first female champion (and first female to sign a fight contract with the UFC) when UFC President Dana White decided to convert her Strikeforce title into a shiny, new UFC belt.

That is one heck of a year. Saturday’s rematch between arguably the two best heavyweights of the last decade takes it over the top.

If that doesn’t get your pay-per-view purchasing finger a bit trigger happy, then someone needs to check your pulse.

Yesterday, we examined the keys to victory for the challenger. He needs to mix it up on the feet just enough to create the opportunity for a takedown and then sell out like there is no tomorrow. For the champion, his two biggest keys to victory are to remain active and fire his big right uppercut.

Velasquez is a high-octane fighter who uses lots of good footwork and lateral movement to create openings for his excellent strikes. When he gets comfortable on the feet, he is as dangerous as anyone with his punches and kicks, particularly when leading the action.

He might not be a truly devastating one-strike knockout artist like dos Santos, but he can stop anyone when he throws punches in bunches. Remember, we are talking about a 240-pound world-class athlete. When he hits, it hurts. Period.

Because Velasquez isn’t a great counterstriker, one of the best ways to keep him off balance is to take the fight to him. Dos Santos should walk him down with punches from bell to bell, always moving forward to the extent practical.

He largely did that in their first bout, and the results speak for themselves. The Brazilian won by knockout in just 64 seconds. It was a jaw-dropping performance by dos Santos, one that I quite honestly never saw coming.

In retrospect, however, it should have been somewhat obvious that a standup-only fight would favor dos Santos. After all, he is the best boxer in the heavyweight division—bar none. And his most effective weapon is the right uppercut.  

Make no mistake about it. Dos Santos can turn out the lights with a variety of strikes. He dropped Velasquez in their first bout with an overhand right that landed behind the ear. But he shouldn’t count on landing that strike again. Velasquez will be focused on taking it away by keeping his left hand very high and circling to his own right.

The high guard should neutralize the overhand right, but it leaves the challenger vulnerable to the right uppercut. The question is how to go about landing it.

The first, and most obvious, way is to fire it off the heels of a left hand. The Brazilian bomber has one of the best jabs in the division. He snaps it like a professional boxer, though unlike most boxers, it is not a range finder. Dos Santos’ jab causes very real damage, so it is a weapon in and of itself.

Dos Santos can jab and quickly fire a right uppercut up the middle. Velasquez will be so focused on keeping his left hand high that it is unlikely he will drop it to defend the jab.

The champion can also double up on the jab or throw one of his slick jab-left hook combinations before immediately cleaning up with his money punch. Those combinations should be particularly effective because the champion does not retreat straight back in the face of incoming fire, like most mixed martial artists. He instead stays in the pocket and moves his head and upper body like a pendulum to slip shots.

Like a pendulum, Velasquez returns to center after slipping a shot. Thus, if the double jab or jab-left hook miss, he could very well be front and center by the time the uppercut arrives.

But that isn’t the end of the challenger’s options with his favorite strike. He can also lead with the punch. As crazy as it sounds, dos Santos is extremely effective leading with his right uppercut. Most fighters don’t try that technique because it requires elite hand speed. Otherwise, it is fairly easy to counter by slipping left and firing a left hook.

Of course, dos Santos possesses elite hand speed, so he can effectively lead with a right uppercut without too much concern. He routinely lands that punch in just about every bout. I don’t see why Saturday night will be any different.

The one time that he may want to forget the right uppercut is when he is timing a Velasquez kick.  In that instance, he is better served firing his right straight down the middle.

Velasquez is an extremely slick kickboxer, with very few tell signs associated with his deep arsenal of strikes. The one notable exception is when he throws a left kick, whether to the inside of his opponent’s lead leg, body or head. The American Kickboxing Academy superstar always steps forward with his right foot before firing a kick with his left leg in order to set his hips to generate speed and power with the strike.

It is a quick shuffle step. But he does it every time. He doesn’t fire any other strike, other than a left kick, when he shuffle steps forward with his right foot.

Dos Santos can try to time Velasquez by stepping in and firing the right hand down the middle the second he sees the champion shuffle stepping forward. He must do it instantly in order to arrive at the target first. And he had better hope that Velasquez isn’t uncorking a high kick, because things could get ugly in that instance.

Nevertheless, the risk is worth the reward. Velasquez is a very durable, high-energy fighter that can go for days. It is unlikely that dos Santos will outlast Velasquez in a grueling five-round war, so he should be thinking stoppage within the first three rounds—or the first 64 seconds—just like in their last bout.

Defensively, dos Santos needs to always be mindful of defending the takedown. Velasquez is a former two-time Division I All-American collegiate wrestler. His wrestling chops are so strong that he was able to take down Brock Lesnar in his title winning affair, something very few people in the world can do.

He can remain in good position to defend the takedown by not over committing on his power punches. Selling out with haymakers is the best way to open the door for a takedown. Dos Santos should keep a solid base with his feet and focus on throwing fast, not necessarily hard, punches. If he does that, then he can rely on his biggest strength, his boxing skills.

I’m honestly not sure who should be the rightful favorite going into the rematch. Conventional wisdom suggests that the man who won the first fight by knockout tends to win the rematch as well. Velasquez might be hesitant because he will remember what happened the last time, and hesitation is the arch enemy of a fighter.

Then again, dos Santos might come out overconfident. Or maybe the first fight was a fluke.

We will all find out soon enough.

QUICK FACTS

Junior dos Santos
•    15-1
•    6’4, 240 lbs
•    77-inch reach
•    28 years old
•    10-fight winning streak (last loss on November 10, 2007)
•    73.3% of wins ended by strikes
•    13.3% of wins by submission, other than from strikes
•    13.3% of wins by decision
•    Knockout of the Night 3x
•    Current layoff is 217 days
•    Career long layoff is 308 days

The UFC 155 Blueprint – Cain Velasquez

UFC 155 - Dos Santos vs. Velasquez IICain Velasquez knows what it is like to reach the top of the mixed martial arts mountain.

On October 23, 2010, Velasquez knocked out Brock Lesnar to win the UFC heavyweight championship. It was a coronation of sorts. From the day he entered the sport, those close to him loudly proclaimed that Velasquez would one day become a champion.

Lots of fighters claim they will one day be champion. But this was different. It wasn’t Velasquez who was claiming he would win the heavyweight crown. It was his trainers and training partners—probably his early opponents, too.

Head trainer Javier Mendez was so bullish on Velasquez before he even made his UFC debut that he told me he firmly believed the former Arizona State University wrestler would someday go down as the greatest heavyweight in the history of the sport. Javier supports his fighters, but he is also honest to a fault when assessing someone’s skills and potential. That is why I was so taken aback by the statement.

Velasquez was nine fights into his professional career when he won the title. One fight later, he lost it in particularly brutal fashion. On Saturday night, he gets the opportunity to avenge that loss when he squares off for a second time against the only man who has ever beaten him—Junior dos Santos.

At stake, once again, is the UFC heavyweight championship. Only this time, Velasquez is the challenger. “Cigano” is the reigning champion.

If Velasquez wants to get his title back, he needs to get back to his roots and take the fight to the ground.

Velasquez is a former elite-level collegiate wrestler, earning All-American honors in both his junior and senior seasons at ASU. Those credentials give him the best wrestling pedigree in the division, now that Lesnar has retired. He needs to rely on those skills, just like he did in his last fight against the ultra-dangerous, and seriously oversized, Antonio Silva.

Velasquez engaged Silva on the feet just long enough to open the door for a takedown. That is precisely what he should do on Saturday night.

Taking down dos Santos is easier said than done. The champion has successfully defended nearly 90% of the takedown attempts thrown his way. Thus, it probably wouldn’t behoove Velasquez to rush across the ring and dive in for a takedown. Dos Santos will be expecting that, so it won’t work.

Velasquez needs to wade into the heart of darkness with the best striker in the division and exchange a bit in order to set up takedowns. That is a scary thought, since dos Santos knocked out Velasquez in just 64 seconds in their first fight. It is Velasquez’s reality nonetheless.

The obvious key for the challenger is to use his great lateral and upper body movement to minimize the opportunities for dos Santos to plant his feet, sit down on his shots and bomb away. Velasquez is among the best in the division with his footwork and quickness. Darting in and out in rip-and-run fashion is just what the doctor ordered.

Notice that I wrote “rip and run,” rather than “hunt and peck.” It is ultra important that Velasquez fire with conviction when he does engage. He needs to force dos Santos to raise his hands in defense or to back straight up. Either of those will open the door for the challenger’s brutally effective double-leg takedown.

If he throws timidly, by contrast, dos Santos will stand in the pocket and fire laser-like counters. Any one of them will have enough firepower to bring the fight to an instant end.  

Another key to getting the fight to the ground is fully committed kicks. That is something Velasquez does as well as just about anyone in the division not named Pat Barry. He threw haphazard leg kicks in their first bout. This time, he needs to fire them with bad intentions.

In other words, Velasquez needs to use full hip turn when he fires right kicks to his foe’s lead leg and body. When he does that, his kicks land with tremendous speed and power. Dos Santos’ stance, which employs a wide base, with his shoulders almost perpendicular to his foe and weight sitting down, is well suited to firing right hands with maximum force and also defending takedowns. But it is not great for checking leg kicks.

For safety, the kick should be thrown as the second or third piece of a fist-led combination. Even the best kickboxers in the world struggle to effectively defend leg kicks thrown at the end of fistic combinations. And Velasquez is masterful at finishing up combinations with leg kicks.

A series of fast, hard leg kicks will rapidly sap dos Santos of his power because he won’t be able to fully plant and fire onto his left side. More importantly, a damaged lead leg makes it tougher to sprawl and brawl.

If dos Santos isn’t able to effectively sprawl, then the odds of Velasquez winning increase dramatically. Trust me. The champion wants no part of fighting from his guard, despite the fact that he holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, because Velasquez has a savage top game and excellent submission defense.

Velasquez has tremendous hips thanks to his deep amateur wrestling background. He is an expert at using his hips to keep an opponent on the ground, without having to rely too heavily on his arms. That frees him up, a la Randy Couture, to hammer away with his fists.

Ask “Bigfoot” Silva what life is like trying to defend Velasquez’s ground-and-pound assault. It’s neither fun nor pretty.

If Velasquez is unable to get the fight to the ground in the opening minutes, he should not panic. Dos Santos has never shown any issues with his cardio. Yet, he still doesn’t want to get into a cardio contest with Velasquez because this guy has a gas tank that would make the Energizer Bunny salivate.

Velasquez needs to keep busy with lots of lateral movement with his rip-and-run strategy. He needs to continue working for takedowns. That is an excellent way to tire out the champion. A tired champion is a champion who can be taken down. And a champion who gets taken down by Velasquez will likely become an ex-champion.

QUICK FACTS

Cain Velasquez
•    10-1
•    6’1, 240 lbs
•    77-inch reach
•    30 years old
•    90% of wins by KO/TKO
•    10% of wins by decision
•    No career submissions
•    Only career loss by KO
•    Knockout of the Night 3x
•    Current layoff is 217 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 490 days

UFC 155 - Dos Santos vs. Velasquez IICain Velasquez knows what it is like to reach the top of the mixed martial arts mountain.

On October 23, 2010, Velasquez knocked out Brock Lesnar to win the UFC heavyweight championship. It was a coronation of sorts. From the day he entered the sport, those close to him loudly proclaimed that Velasquez would one day become a champion.

Lots of fighters claim they will one day be champion. But this was different. It wasn’t Velasquez who was claiming he would win the heavyweight crown. It was his trainers and training partners—probably his early opponents, too.

Head trainer Javier Mendez was so bullish on Velasquez before he even made his UFC debut that he told me he firmly believed the former Arizona State University wrestler would someday go down as the greatest heavyweight in the history of the sport. Javier supports his fighters, but he is also honest to a fault when assessing someone’s skills and potential. That is why I was so taken aback by the statement.

Velasquez was nine fights into his professional career when he won the title. One fight later, he lost it in particularly brutal fashion. On Saturday night, he gets the opportunity to avenge that loss when he squares off for a second time against the only man who has ever beaten him—Junior dos Santos.

At stake, once again, is the UFC heavyweight championship. Only this time, Velasquez is the challenger. “Cigano” is the reigning champion.

If Velasquez wants to get his title back, he needs to get back to his roots and take the fight to the ground.

Velasquez is a former elite-level collegiate wrestler, earning All-American honors in both his junior and senior seasons at ASU. Those credentials give him the best wrestling pedigree in the division, now that Lesnar has retired. He needs to rely on those skills, just like he did in his last fight against the ultra-dangerous, and seriously oversized, Antonio Silva.

Velasquez engaged Silva on the feet just long enough to open the door for a takedown. That is precisely what he should do on Saturday night.

Taking down dos Santos is easier said than done. The champion has successfully defended nearly 90% of the takedown attempts thrown his way. Thus, it probably wouldn’t behoove Velasquez to rush across the ring and dive in for a takedown. Dos Santos will be expecting that, so it won’t work.

Velasquez needs to wade into the heart of darkness with the best striker in the division and exchange a bit in order to set up takedowns. That is a scary thought, since dos Santos knocked out Velasquez in just 64 seconds in their first fight. It is Velasquez’s reality nonetheless.

The obvious key for the challenger is to use his great lateral and upper body movement to minimize the opportunities for dos Santos to plant his feet, sit down on his shots and bomb away. Velasquez is among the best in the division with his footwork and quickness. Darting in and out in rip-and-run fashion is just what the doctor ordered.

Notice that I wrote “rip and run,” rather than “hunt and peck.” It is ultra important that Velasquez fire with conviction when he does engage. He needs to force dos Santos to raise his hands in defense or to back straight up. Either of those will open the door for the challenger’s brutally effective double-leg takedown.

If he throws timidly, by contrast, dos Santos will stand in the pocket and fire laser-like counters. Any one of them will have enough firepower to bring the fight to an instant end.  

Another key to getting the fight to the ground is fully committed kicks. That is something Velasquez does as well as just about anyone in the division not named Pat Barry. He threw haphazard leg kicks in their first bout. This time, he needs to fire them with bad intentions.

In other words, Velasquez needs to use full hip turn when he fires right kicks to his foe’s lead leg and body. When he does that, his kicks land with tremendous speed and power. Dos Santos’ stance, which employs a wide base, with his shoulders almost perpendicular to his foe and weight sitting down, is well suited to firing right hands with maximum force and also defending takedowns. But it is not great for checking leg kicks.

For safety, the kick should be thrown as the second or third piece of a fist-led combination. Even the best kickboxers in the world struggle to effectively defend leg kicks thrown at the end of fistic combinations. And Velasquez is masterful at finishing up combinations with leg kicks.

A series of fast, hard leg kicks will rapidly sap dos Santos of his power because he won’t be able to fully plant and fire onto his left side. More importantly, a damaged lead leg makes it tougher to sprawl and brawl.

If dos Santos isn’t able to effectively sprawl, then the odds of Velasquez winning increase dramatically. Trust me. The champion wants no part of fighting from his guard, despite the fact that he holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, because Velasquez has a savage top game and excellent submission defense.

Velasquez has tremendous hips thanks to his deep amateur wrestling background. He is an expert at using his hips to keep an opponent on the ground, without having to rely too heavily on his arms. That frees him up, a la Randy Couture, to hammer away with his fists.

Ask “Bigfoot” Silva what life is like trying to defend Velasquez’s ground-and-pound assault. It’s neither fun nor pretty.

If Velasquez is unable to get the fight to the ground in the opening minutes, he should not panic. Dos Santos has never shown any issues with his cardio. Yet, he still doesn’t want to get into a cardio contest with Velasquez because this guy has a gas tank that would make the Energizer Bunny salivate.

Velasquez needs to keep busy with lots of lateral movement with his rip-and-run strategy. He needs to continue working for takedowns. That is an excellent way to tire out the champion. A tired champion is a champion who can be taken down. And a champion who gets taken down by Velasquez will likely become an ex-champion.

QUICK FACTS

Cain Velasquez
•    10-1
•    6’1, 240 lbs
•    77-inch reach
•    30 years old
•    90% of wins by KO/TKO
•    10% of wins by decision
•    No career submissions
•    Only career loss by KO
•    Knockout of the Night 3x
•    Current layoff is 217 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 490 days

Weekend Fight Musings – Part II

Pearson vs. SotiropoulosPEARSON RETURNS TO 155 WITH A BANG

At first, I thought it qualified as Ross Pearson’s career-defining moment. Then I recalled that Pearson had defeated Dennis Siver nearly three years earlier in a Fight of the Night effort. I’m not sure which win is more impressive: Siver, because he is widely viewed as a top contender, or George Sotiropoulos, because he served opposite Pearson for a couple months on Australian television in the UFC’s reality show debut in the eastern part of the world. Whatever the case, Pearson’s dominant performance on Friday night returns him to the lightweight division with a ton of momentum.

For my money, I preferred the Brit at featherweight. Maybe he is one of those guys who performs better if he cuts less weight? Maybe he is better off with a little extra muscle, even if his frame is a bit small for the lightweights? I don’t know. All I know is he looked great.

THE SMASHES A SMASH HIT

I enjoyed both TUF Smashes finale bouts. It was also fitting that an Australian and a UK rep won, hopefully bringing both nations deeper and deeper into the sport we all love. With the finals behind us, I’m eager to see how Norman Parke and Robert Whittaker fare in the UFC going forward. It would be great to see one or both make a serious run, which would only further deepen the UFC’s already strong international ties.

THE FANS FINALLY GET TO SEE THE REAL HECTOR LOMBARD

Few fighters enter the UFC on a 25-fight unbeaten streak. Hector Lombard did just that this past summer. There was talk of an immediate title shot against pound-for-pound monster Anderson Silva. There was talk about a single elimination bout and then a shot at Silva. There was talk about this and about that. And then, Lombard laid an egg.

Call it what you will, but Lombard’s split decision loss to Tim Boetsch was an egg. Boetsch is a seriously tough dude who fought a great fight that night. But Lombard didn’t display any of the trademark savagery that made him one of the most sought-after free agents in the sport just a few months prior. He fought with a not-to-lose approach, rather than a win-at-all-costs mentality.

Boetsch’s monster strikes and solid wrestling may have had a lot to do with that. First-time Octagon jitters may have contributed. Who knows? Something wasn’t right, because Lombard left us all scratching our heads wondering if he was, indeed, the monster we all thought he was heading into his debut.

Then everything changed when he stepped into the cage with Rousimar Palhares. Less than four minutes later, Lombard lived up to the tremendous hype that he carried on those massively broad shoulders when he signed with the UFC. A brutal knockout win over an extremely tough opponent was just what the doctor ordered to reinsert the Cuban national into middleweight relevance.

MENDES BACK ATOP THE LIST

Frankie Edgar will get the next shot at UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo. But is there anyone who truly deserves to sit atop the division, other than Chad Mendes?

I know. Aldo knocked him out in January thanks to a knee that ended the fight one second before the opening round ended. I also remember that I wrote yesterday that Dustin Poirier was the best in the division, next to Aldo. But Poirier isn’t yet ready for a title shot, in my opinion. He needs an A-list win. Mendes doesn’t have that problem.

The Team Alpha Male standout is now 13-1 in his career, with his lone loss to Aldo. Back-to-back knockout wins in his last two fights have largely erased the bitter taste of championship defeat. Is Mendes next in line after Edgar? Will he face Poirier in an eliminator? Maybe Ricardo Lamas or Hatsu Hioki? Maybe Clay Guida, if the shaggy contender defeats Hioki in his debut?

The featherweight division is quickly becoming one of the deeper divisions in the sport. And it is tough to argue that Mendes belongs anywhere, other than first in line behind Aldo.
 
 

Pearson vs. SotiropoulosPEARSON RETURNS TO 155 WITH A BANG

At first, I thought it qualified as Ross Pearson’s career-defining moment. Then I recalled that Pearson had defeated Dennis Siver nearly three years earlier in a Fight of the Night effort. I’m not sure which win is more impressive: Siver, because he is widely viewed as a top contender, or George Sotiropoulos, because he served opposite Pearson for a couple months on Australian television in the UFC’s reality show debut in the eastern part of the world. Whatever the case, Pearson’s dominant performance on Friday night returns him to the lightweight division with a ton of momentum.

For my money, I preferred the Brit at featherweight. Maybe he is one of those guys who performs better if he cuts less weight? Maybe he is better off with a little extra muscle, even if his frame is a bit small for the lightweights? I don’t know. All I know is he looked great.

THE SMASHES A SMASH HIT

I enjoyed both TUF Smashes finale bouts. It was also fitting that an Australian and a UK rep won, hopefully bringing both nations deeper and deeper into the sport we all love. With the finals behind us, I’m eager to see how Norman Parke and Robert Whittaker fare in the UFC going forward. It would be great to see one or both make a serious run, which would only further deepen the UFC’s already strong international ties.

THE FANS FINALLY GET TO SEE THE REAL HECTOR LOMBARD

Few fighters enter the UFC on a 25-fight unbeaten streak. Hector Lombard did just that this past summer. There was talk of an immediate title shot against pound-for-pound monster Anderson Silva. There was talk about a single elimination bout and then a shot at Silva. There was talk about this and about that. And then, Lombard laid an egg.

Call it what you will, but Lombard’s split decision loss to Tim Boetsch was an egg. Boetsch is a seriously tough dude who fought a great fight that night. But Lombard didn’t display any of the trademark savagery that made him one of the most sought-after free agents in the sport just a few months prior. He fought with a not-to-lose approach, rather than a win-at-all-costs mentality.

Boetsch’s monster strikes and solid wrestling may have had a lot to do with that. First-time Octagon jitters may have contributed. Who knows? Something wasn’t right, because Lombard left us all scratching our heads wondering if he was, indeed, the monster we all thought he was heading into his debut.

Then everything changed when he stepped into the cage with Rousimar Palhares. Less than four minutes later, Lombard lived up to the tremendous hype that he carried on those massively broad shoulders when he signed with the UFC. A brutal knockout win over an extremely tough opponent was just what the doctor ordered to reinsert the Cuban national into middleweight relevance.

MENDES BACK ATOP THE LIST

Frankie Edgar will get the next shot at UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo. But is there anyone who truly deserves to sit atop the division, other than Chad Mendes?

I know. Aldo knocked him out in January thanks to a knee that ended the fight one second before the opening round ended. I also remember that I wrote yesterday that Dustin Poirier was the best in the division, next to Aldo. But Poirier isn’t yet ready for a title shot, in my opinion. He needs an A-list win. Mendes doesn’t have that problem.

The Team Alpha Male standout is now 13-1 in his career, with his lone loss to Aldo. Back-to-back knockout wins in his last two fights have largely erased the bitter taste of championship defeat. Is Mendes next in line after Edgar? Will he face Poirier in an eliminator? Maybe Ricardo Lamas or Hatsu Hioki? Maybe Clay Guida, if the shaggy contender defeats Hioki in his debut?

The featherweight division is quickly becoming one of the deeper divisions in the sport. And it is tough to argue that Mendes belongs anywhere, other than first in line behind Aldo.
 
 

Weekend Musings – Part I

Nelson vs. Mitrione - TUF 16 FinaleNELSON PROVES THAT YOU CAN’T JUDGE A BOOK BY ITS COVER

Is there any question that Roy Nelson appears to be the most out of shape athlete on the UFC’s roster? Even though he has dramatically reduced his midsection from a Buddha to a serious beer belly, he still appears more couch potato than professional fighter. Yet, Nelson proved once again that he is among the heavyweight division’s top contenders by savagely knocking out rising star Matt Mitrione.

Both Nelson and Mitrione looked great during the opening moments of the fight. Nelson stalked as his foe remained light on his feet. Both threw crisp punches as they moved and looked to change angles. Then, Nelson uncorked a perfect counter right uppercut that landed right on the button.

Game over.

It’s amazing that a guy who only started formal striking training in 2009 has that sort of show-stopping power. I know. I know. Punching power is a birthright, not a product of training. There is no denying, however, that proper technique maximizes one’s natural explosive power. Nelson doesn’t display the best technique in the world, which suggests that he could possibly crank up the volume on his already elite hammers.

I’m not sure that he is ready to compete with champion Junior dos Santos in a rematch, number one contender Cain Velasquez or apex predator Alistair Overeem. Then again, with Nelson’s power, it would be silly to think that he is incapable of stopping any of those men with a single shot. He might not be at the level where he can beat those guys more often than not, but on any given night, Nelson absolutely has the chops and pop to beat any heavyweight in the world.

THE GREAT BEARD DEBATE

The Nevada State Athletic Commission Rules of Unarmed Combat provide, in relevant part, that “[t]he Commission’s representative shall determine whether…head or facial hair …will interfere with the …conduct of the contest or exhibition.” If so, the offending party may not compete in bout, unless “the circumstances creating the…potential interference [is] corrected to the satisfaction of the Commission’s representative.”

The Commission does a great job of controlling long hair. Fighters must braid it to avoid the hair becoming an issue, whether getting caught in an opponent’s hands, thereby resulting in an illegal hair pull, or somehow impairing the vision of an opponent. Yet, the Commission seems to take a completely passive attitude toward beards.

I’m sure experts abound on both sides of the argument, but it is tough for me to believe that Nelson’s beard doesn’t create some sort of advantage. Is it that tough to assume that a multi-inch-thick beard, like the one currently sported by Nelson, or the one previously sported by 205-pound champion Jon Jones, doesn’t create the same effect as another ounce or two of padding?

If that is an illogical thought, then why are the gloves held to such an exacting standard in terms of ounces of padding?

What are your thoughts?

SMITH MAKES HIS BROTHERS IN ARMS PROUD

Colton Smith is an active-duty Army Ranger. He is also the newest winner of the UFC’s reality show “The Ultimate Fighter.” For those who don’t know, the Rangers are the best of the best among the U.S. Army. They are Special Forces combat soldiers who are tasked with accomplishing the impossible.

Smith defeating Mike Ricci certainly didn’t qualify as accomplishing the impossible. After all, Ricci is a natural lightweight who competed against men one weight class heavier just for the opportunity to display his skills on cable television. Nonetheless, Smith’s domination of Ricci to cap off a perfect run through the TUF 16 tournament was definitely improbable.

It remains to be seen whether Smith will become relevant in the welterweight division, or if his star will quickly fizzle out like some TUF winners before him. Whatever happens, I’m sure his Army brethren, particularly those who share the special bond of being a member of the Rangers, are beaming with pride right about now. For my money, Smith winning was the feel good story of the night.

BARRY IS POSSIBLY THE MOST EXCITING HEAVYWEIGHT IN THE SPORT TODAY

I’m not going to revisit my “move south” campaign. Anyone who regularly reads this column knows how I feel about Barry continuing to compete at heavyweight. I’m going to let that one go for now and focus on a different glaringly obvious conclusion of Barry’s UFC career to date: This guy is arguably the single-most exciting heavyweight in the sport today.

That is a daring statement, I know. Many probably think I’m absolutely nuts. This guy is the ultimate home run hitter. Not the Miguel Cabrera triple crown type. The Dave Kingman strike out or bomb it over the fence type. The numbers agree.

Barry sports a .500 record after 10 UFC bouts. Six of those 10 fights ended with a spectacular knockout – four resulting in a Barry win. Each of those were worthy of a post-fight bonus, despite the fact that only two were bestowed the honor. Three of those 10 fights ended with a submission – Barry ending up on the wrong end of the stick each time. And the remaining bout was brutal bludgeoning over 15 minutes dished out to Joey Beltran, probably one of only two men on the earth who could have lasted through that onslaught (Nelson being the other).

Barry’s penchant for winning or losing inside the distance isn’t a coincidence. He takes tremendous chances in search of the knockout. That leaves him exposed to be knocked out himself and certainly makes it much easier to be taken down. It’s not the best way to compete, if one wants to put together an Anderson Silva-like winning streak. But it is a fantastic way to compete, if one wants to continue getting invited back in marquee matchups, regardless of the outcome of his fights.

I don’t care if Barry is a top contender. This .500 fighter will remain at the top of my heavyweight must-see TV list for as long as he competes.

WATCH OUT FOR POIRIER

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. I think Dustin Poirier is the best featherweight in the UFC not currently wearing a belt.

Intentional pause while readers hammer the comment section with flames…

OK, back to business.  I know the division is full of incredibly tough guys like Chad Mendes, Ricardo Lamas, Dennis Siver and the “Korean Zombie,” Chan Sung Jung, among others. I also know that the Zombie submitted Poirier back in May. But that was a fight that could have gone either way, but for a single mistake. If those two fought again, I’d be betting on Poirier, to be honest.

I also know that Poirier doesn’t have the world’s best takedown defense, so someone like Mendes should give him lots of problems.

I don’t care. Poirier seems to have that extra something that I haven’t seen in a while. I don’t know why. I can’t accurately describe it with the written word. It’s just a feeling that I get from watching him compete Maybe I’m a sucker for a great documentary. I loved “Fightville.” If you haven’t seen it, I highly recommend downloading it on Netflix or searching your cable/satellite guide for the next showing.

Poirier remains raw, which is to be expected for a 23-year-old fighter. Give him another year or three, and I truly think he will wear UFC gold, whether at 145 or 155.

Nelson vs. Mitrione - TUF 16 FinaleNELSON PROVES THAT YOU CAN’T JUDGE A BOOK BY ITS COVER

Is there any question that Roy Nelson appears to be the most out of shape athlete on the UFC’s roster? Even though he has dramatically reduced his midsection from a Buddha to a serious beer belly, he still appears more couch potato than professional fighter. Yet, Nelson proved once again that he is among the heavyweight division’s top contenders by savagely knocking out rising star Matt Mitrione.

Both Nelson and Mitrione looked great during the opening moments of the fight. Nelson stalked as his foe remained light on his feet. Both threw crisp punches as they moved and looked to change angles. Then, Nelson uncorked a perfect counter right uppercut that landed right on the button.

Game over.

It’s amazing that a guy who only started formal striking training in 2009 has that sort of show-stopping power. I know. I know. Punching power is a birthright, not a product of training. There is no denying, however, that proper technique maximizes one’s natural explosive power. Nelson doesn’t display the best technique in the world, which suggests that he could possibly crank up the volume on his already elite hammers.

I’m not sure that he is ready to compete with champion Junior dos Santos in a rematch, number one contender Cain Velasquez or apex predator Alistair Overeem. Then again, with Nelson’s power, it would be silly to think that he is incapable of stopping any of those men with a single shot. He might not be at the level where he can beat those guys more often than not, but on any given night, Nelson absolutely has the chops and pop to beat any heavyweight in the world.

THE GREAT BEARD DEBATE

The Nevada State Athletic Commission Rules of Unarmed Combat provide, in relevant part, that “[t]he Commission’s representative shall determine whether…head or facial hair …will interfere with the …conduct of the contest or exhibition.” If so, the offending party may not compete in bout, unless “the circumstances creating the…potential interference [is] corrected to the satisfaction of the Commission’s representative.”

The Commission does a great job of controlling long hair. Fighters must braid it to avoid the hair becoming an issue, whether getting caught in an opponent’s hands, thereby resulting in an illegal hair pull, or somehow impairing the vision of an opponent. Yet, the Commission seems to take a completely passive attitude toward beards.

I’m sure experts abound on both sides of the argument, but it is tough for me to believe that Nelson’s beard doesn’t create some sort of advantage. Is it that tough to assume that a multi-inch-thick beard, like the one currently sported by Nelson, or the one previously sported by 205-pound champion Jon Jones, doesn’t create the same effect as another ounce or two of padding?

If that is an illogical thought, then why are the gloves held to such an exacting standard in terms of ounces of padding?

What are your thoughts?

SMITH MAKES HIS BROTHERS IN ARMS PROUD

Colton Smith is an active-duty Army Ranger. He is also the newest winner of the UFC’s reality show “The Ultimate Fighter.” For those who don’t know, the Rangers are the best of the best among the U.S. Army. They are Special Forces combat soldiers who are tasked with accomplishing the impossible.

Smith defeating Mike Ricci certainly didn’t qualify as accomplishing the impossible. After all, Ricci is a natural lightweight who competed against men one weight class heavier just for the opportunity to display his skills on cable television. Nonetheless, Smith’s domination of Ricci to cap off a perfect run through the TUF 16 tournament was definitely improbable.

It remains to be seen whether Smith will become relevant in the welterweight division, or if his star will quickly fizzle out like some TUF winners before him. Whatever happens, I’m sure his Army brethren, particularly those who share the special bond of being a member of the Rangers, are beaming with pride right about now. For my money, Smith winning was the feel good story of the night.

BARRY IS POSSIBLY THE MOST EXCITING HEAVYWEIGHT IN THE SPORT TODAY

I’m not going to revisit my “move south” campaign. Anyone who regularly reads this column knows how I feel about Barry continuing to compete at heavyweight. I’m going to let that one go for now and focus on a different glaringly obvious conclusion of Barry’s UFC career to date: This guy is arguably the single-most exciting heavyweight in the sport today.

That is a daring statement, I know. Many probably think I’m absolutely nuts. This guy is the ultimate home run hitter. Not the Miguel Cabrera triple crown type. The Dave Kingman strike out or bomb it over the fence type. The numbers agree.

Barry sports a .500 record after 10 UFC bouts. Six of those 10 fights ended with a spectacular knockout – four resulting in a Barry win. Each of those were worthy of a post-fight bonus, despite the fact that only two were bestowed the honor. Three of those 10 fights ended with a submission – Barry ending up on the wrong end of the stick each time. And the remaining bout was brutal bludgeoning over 15 minutes dished out to Joey Beltran, probably one of only two men on the earth who could have lasted through that onslaught (Nelson being the other).

Barry’s penchant for winning or losing inside the distance isn’t a coincidence. He takes tremendous chances in search of the knockout. That leaves him exposed to be knocked out himself and certainly makes it much easier to be taken down. It’s not the best way to compete, if one wants to put together an Anderson Silva-like winning streak. But it is a fantastic way to compete, if one wants to continue getting invited back in marquee matchups, regardless of the outcome of his fights.

I don’t care if Barry is a top contender. This .500 fighter will remain at the top of my heavyweight must-see TV list for as long as he competes.

WATCH OUT FOR POIRIER

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. I think Dustin Poirier is the best featherweight in the UFC not currently wearing a belt.

Intentional pause while readers hammer the comment section with flames…

OK, back to business.  I know the division is full of incredibly tough guys like Chad Mendes, Ricardo Lamas, Dennis Siver and the “Korean Zombie,” Chan Sung Jung, among others. I also know that the Zombie submitted Poirier back in May. But that was a fight that could have gone either way, but for a single mistake. If those two fought again, I’d be betting on Poirier, to be honest.

I also know that Poirier doesn’t have the world’s best takedown defense, so someone like Mendes should give him lots of problems.

I don’t care. Poirier seems to have that extra something that I haven’t seen in a while. I don’t know why. I can’t accurately describe it with the written word. It’s just a feeling that I get from watching him compete Maybe I’m a sucker for a great documentary. I loved “Fightville.” If you haven’t seen it, I highly recommend downloading it on Netflix or searching your cable/satellite guide for the next showing.

Poirier remains raw, which is to be expected for a 23-year-old fighter. Give him another year or three, and I truly think he will wear UFC gold, whether at 145 or 155.