Author: By Michael DiSanto

I’m going to be brutally honest.

With his ever-present (though shrinking) belly, Roy Nelson doesn’t look like your typical prizefighter. In fact, nobody on the planet, aside from UFC fans, would ever look at Nelson and think he is anything other than a barstool tough guy.

Oh, what a surprise those folks would be in for, if they ever made the mistake of testing “Big Country” on a street corner. Wow.

Matt Mitrione is one of the best pure athletes in the heavyweight division. This guy played in the NFL for two different teams, as a 300-lb behemoth. Forty-five pounds lighter and seven years later, Mitrione is now a top heavyweight prospect in the UFC.

Watch him for five minutes and his elite athleticism is obvious. This guy is lighter on his feet than any heavyweight, other than Cain Velasquez. He has explosive speed similar to what Brock Lesnar possessed at his peak. And he throws his hands with the comfort, poise and polish of a professional boxer. He might not hit with the same destructive force of his Blackzilians teammate Alistair Overeem, but he hangs with most other guys.

When Nelson and Mitrione stand opposed for the post-weigh-in stare down, the difference in their physiques will be glaringly obvious. Mitrione doesn’t have the musculature of a bodybuilder, but the massiveness of his frame will make Nelson look like a boy standing across from a man.

The only problem for Mitrione is Nelson is far from a boy. He may not have a UFC-caliber heavyweight physique. Nonetheless, this guy has a world class chin underneath that moonshiner beard. He easily matches Mitrione, if not surpassing him, in one-punch, show-stopping power. And his ground skills are among the best in the business, when he chooses to use them.

The uninformed won’t know from looking at the two, but Mitrione is the underdog in this fight. Not vice versa.

If you doubt that statement, pull up two Nelson fights from your DVR: Mirko Cro Cop and Stefan Struve. The former, a one-time great in Japan, got blasted into retirement. The latter is a current top-ranked heavyweight, and Nelson destroyed him in 39 seconds.

Of course, Nelson’s career hasn’t always been high-fives and champagne. He lost fairly one-sided bouts against reigning champion Junior dos Santos, former champion Frank Mir and top contender Fabricio Werdum. That sounds like an insult, but I beg to differ.

Watch the film on those fights again. Nelson absorbed an insane amount of damage. Yet, he always came forward and never looked like he was on the verge of getting knocked out. In fact, Nelson has only been knocked out once in his professional career, despite the fact that he has faced more than his fair share of savage strikers.

Guys pound away on him, yet “Big Country” continues coming forward.  That is mentally draining, particularly when faced with the possibility of eating a fight-ending counter right hand, if Nelson’s opponent gets too aggressive with his attack.

I have a feeling that Mitrione will try to avoid standing in the pocket and exchanging with Nelson. He will, instead, look to use his superior athleticism and hand speed to rip and retreat. He will bang away with the jab, a lead left hand, or a solid one-two combination before getting out of harm’s way.

Mitrione will try to open throwing angles by circling to his own right in an attempt to keep his lead right foot outside of Nelson’s lead left foot. That will create the appropriate openings for his big left hand down the middle, arguably Mitrione’s best weapon.

Plus, Mitrione wants to avoid unnecessary clinches with the former winner of The Ultimate Fighter. Nelson isn’t the best wrestler in the division, but he has an uncanny ability to get the fight to the ground when he wants to. Mitrione wants to avoid the takedown at all costs because he will be a fish out of water against Nelson on the ground.

Yes, I know Mitrione has been working hard on his ground game for the past few years. But it still pales in comparison to Nelson’s ground game. I’ll actually go so far as to state that, if this fight transitions to the ground and Nelson is able to keep it there for more than 60 seconds, then he wins more often than not. Actually, a win might be substantially certain in that circumstance.

The rip-and-retreat approach will help keep the fight standing, if executed properly, because Nelson will be continually resetting his feet to adjust to Mitrione’s ever-changing angles. Don’t go straight back. Don’t become predictable with strikes. Don’t stay in the pocket for more than two-, or occasionally three-, punch combinations. Those are the three big keys to Mitrione properly utilizing the rip and retreat style.

Nelson, by contrast, will simply walk down his foe from bell to bell. He will work to cut off the cage by stepping forward and to the left with his lead foot in order to prevent Mitrione from taking advantage of angles and also forcing him to retreat into Nelson’s best weapon.

“Big Country” will let his fists fly with reckless abandon. If he finds out that Mitrione has an advantage on the feet, then Nelson will look for the takedown. That has increasingly become a forgotten weapon for him over the last couple of years, so this is the perfect time to go retro and bring back the takedowns.

So who is going to win? Well, a win on Saturday night won’t likely result in either man receiving an instant title shot. What it does accomplish, however, is see which man belongs in the ever-expanding group of heavyweight contenders and which is more likely to serve as more of a gatekeeper.

But what I care more about is the fact that this matchup has all the ingredients to result in a great fight, one that will have moments, if not several minutes, of rock’em, sock’em robots action. With two monsters like this, that suggests a high likelihood of a knockout or submission. Since both Nelson and Mitrione prefer to throw hands, a knockout seems like the most probable outcome of the two.

The only question, of course, is who will survive. We will all find out soon enough. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see either man win Saturday night. I think this is an extremely even matchup. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Nelson will have too many tricks up his sleeve, though I’ve been wrong on that issue in the past.

YES, WE GET IT, BENDO

Benson Henderson believes that he is the UFC’s version of Rodney Dangerfield. He doesn’t think that the media gives him enough respect. Most fight cognoscenti picked Frankie Edgar to beat the champion, twice. Many picked Clay Guida to dispose of him in a title elimination bout. And a very large percentage picked Nate Diaz to dethrone the reigning lightweight king on Saturday night.

It wasn’t a big surprise, therefore, to hear Bendo scream to media members sitting cageside, “I don’t talk; it’s in here. Do you guys get it?”

Yes, we do, Bendo. The message you sent on Saturday night was loud and clear, and I’m not referring to his defiant question to press row. Bendo’s dismantling of Diaz was, in my opinion at least, the most impressive performance of his career. I don’t know who he is going to face next. But it is tough to imagine picking against him again.

PASSING OF THE TORCH TOUGH TO WATCH

BJ Penn is a surefire Hall of Famer as soon as he hangs up the vale tudo gloves. The guy remains one of only two men to win UFC championships in multiple divisions. Current Hall of Fame inductee Randy Couture is the other.

There was also a time, back in 2004 and 2005, when Penn was viewed by many as the best fighter in the world, pound for pound. He earned that distinction by moving up from lightweight to defeat a fighter who seemed to be unbeatable at the time, Matt Hughes. He then moved up to middleweight to topple a Gracie (Rodrigo). And then he fought a guy who was soon to become the UFC light heavyweight champion (Lyoto Machida) to a close decision loss in an openweight bout. All that before dropping all the way down to lightweight to win and successfully defend the UFC lightweight championship three times.

In terms of pound-for-pound greatness, that is one heck of a resume.

Maybe that is why it was tough to watch Rory MacDonald dominate him on Saturday night. MacDonald is one of the game’s bright young stars. He appears to have the same limitless potential that his countryman and training partner Georges St-Pierre had during his early days in the UFC. It wasn’t surprising to watch him destroy Penn, who appears to be on the downside of his great career. That is the natural course of combat sports, the young lion taking his rightful place in a division by defeating a fading great. But that didn’t make it easy to watch, either.

I don’t know if Penn will continue to fight. He doesn’t need the money. And his legacy doesn’t need future accomplishments. If this was, indeed, the last time we will see Penn in the Octagon, I want to state without reservation that it was an absolute privilege to watch him compete over the years.

When I think about my favorite Penn moment, it wasn’t watching him crush Hughes in an amazing statement of his pound-for-pound greatness. It wasn’t watching him dominate the lightweight division during his reign as champion. And it wasn’t watching him defy all odds by stalemating a much, much larger Jon Fitch—a fighter who on paper should have been a nightmarish matchup for the Hawaiian.

My favorite Penn moment remains a conversation that we had two weeks prior to his first bout with Hughes. I called him to talk about the upcoming matchup for a piece I was writing. I asked Penn what made him believe that he could move up in weight and beat a man on a 13-fight winning streak, arguably making him the most dominant champion in the UFC at the time. I will never forget his answer.

“Look, I’m standing outside of a McDonald’s right now,” Penn said. “This big guy just walked out with a Big Mac. If I want that Big Mac, I’m just going to walk over there, beat him down and take it. I’m not going to ask him how much he weighs first. I’m just going to do it. Weight doesn’t mean anything, and I’m going to prove it on January 31st.”

That quote describes his career in a nutshell.

WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO

Alexander Gustafsson earned his first shot at UFC gold by crushing former champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in a title elimination bout. That is the good news. The bad news is the champion already has a date on the books with another foe. Jon Jones will face former middleweight contender Chael Sonnen in April. Barring injury, Jones could probably turn around and fight again in early August, probably not before then.

Thus, Gustafsson finds himself in a quagmire. Does he wait eight months, at least, to take advantage of his title opportunity? Or, would he be better served taking another fight in the spring so that he can remain active and sharp ahead of his inaugural championship bout?

Carlos Condit found himself in a similar position after he defeated Nick Diaz in February in an eliminator. Reigning champion Georges St-Pierre did not have an interim fight planned. Instead, he was healing from knee surgery. But the timeline was similar. GSP was going to be on the shelf for at least eight months. It turned out to be nine. Condit gave a valiant effort, but he came up short nonetheless.

Would Condit have been better served taking an interim bout, even though that would have put his title shot at jeopardy? Would it have impacted the outcome at all?

Gustafsson endured a 238-day layoff leading into his bout with Shogun. Yet, he gave what many probably believe was a career-best performance. Would another 30 to 60 days really matter much? Honestly, I doubt it. I think Gustafsson should wait on the sideline until Jones is ready, assuming Jones defeats Sonnen and doesn’t otherwise suffer some sort of setback that will keep him out of action beyond late summer.

My reasoning for that position is simple. A UFC title bout is such an amazing, potentially life-changing opportunity that fighters have to do whatever is within reason to secure the bout. Taking an interim fight poses tremendous risk. Parity is the name of the game in the UFC. Anyone not named Anderson Silva can be defeated on any given day. We have seen examples of that over and over again in the last decade. The risk of losing in an interim bout far exceeds the benefit gained from staying busy, in my opinion.

If, on the other hand, Jones or Sonnen win and sustain a sideline-imposing injury (or if Sonnen wins and Jones is granted an immediate rematch), then Gustafsson should definitely take in interim bout. Waiting a year or more between bouts is a bad idea for even the best fighter. Just about everyone taking a break that long between bouts complains of cage rust, impaired conditioning or some other issue. GSP, Rashad Evans, Quinton Jackson, and many others will co-sign on that statement. Fighting for the title is a tremendous opportunity, so a fighter needs to make sure he both gets the opportunity and then maximizes it.

BROWN FINALLY GETS SIGNATURE WIN

Matt Brown has been a fun, fan-friendly fighter in the UFC since his debut on June 21, 2008. The one thing his career lacked, however, was a signature win against a marquee opponent. Brown solved that on Saturday night with a dramatic second-round knockout win over Mike Swick. That was by far the biggest win of Brown’s entertaining career. He is now in the midst of a four-fight winning streak. Having a name like Swick in that streak almost certainly means that another main card opportunity is right around the corner, possibly against another 170-pound contender. Another win or two against guys of that level and anything becomes possible for the Ohioan in the welterweight division.

More often than not, when Nate Diaz enters the Octagon, he leaves with a post-fight bonus check in his pocket.

16 fights. 10 checks. Only two men—Anderson Silva, with 12, and Joe Lauzon, with 11—have collected more post-fight bonus checks in UFC history. That means this guy brings it each and every time he straps on the vale tudo gloves.

I honestly believe Diaz’s ability to thrill onlookers is due to the fact that he approaches every bout as a fight. It isn’t an athletic contest for him. Basketball players and football players engage in athletic competition when they pick up the round and oval ball, respectively, and try to outscore an opponent.

Diaz isn’t in the cage to outscore anyone. He isn’t in there to compete.  He is in there to fight—period.  He is in there to inflict damage. He wants to break his foe physically and mentally through constant pressure and frequent, vitriolic trash talking. And he accomplishes that goal more often than not, typically in extremely fan friendly fashion.

His opponent on Saturday night is the exact opposite. He is a tactician who methodically breaks down opponents with game planning and athleticism. He is a sportsman who is inside the Octagon to test himself athletically against his opponent to see who is better. There is no ill will. It’s not about fighting. It’s about competing and winning.

Oh yes, Benson Henderson also happens to be the UFC lightweight champion.

The two will square off in the main event of UFC on FOX this Saturday. Bendo hopes to earn his second successful title defense. Diaz wants to start his first title reign.

How does this one break down? It’s pretty simple, actually.

The champion is the shorter, but undoubtedly stronger, guy. He is a physical fighter who likes to hunt and peck in the standup game, until openings arise for a takedown. He doesn’t always look to take opponents down. His speed and athleticism allow him to dart in and out almost at will and score with effective punches against most opponents. He also throws good kicks to the legs and body.

Again, Bendo is competing. He is outpointing. He is doing what it takes to defeat his opponent. While he, like any fighter, would love a finish, he’ll take a decision win, which isn’t a derogatory statement by any means, because he is anything but boring. Bendo regularly engages each of his foes with a high work rate, but he engages tactfully.

Against Diaz, Bendo will come out utilizing a lot of lateral movement with his hunt and peck style. He will try to get Diaz to chase him so that he can use angles to strike and stay clear of his foe’s swarming, whirling-dervish attack. It is going to be a stick-and-move game plan. If he experiences success on the feet, then he may try to push back Diaz by leading behind the double and triple jab, something Bendo does frequently, particularly when he is feeling good.

I would be surprised, however, if Bendo seeks to take the fight to the floor. He may have no choice, if he is getting beaten up on the feet. Absent that, I think Bendo will want to keep the fight standing for as long as possible. Read on to learn why.

Diaz, on the other hand, will be equally comfortable, if the fight stays on the feet or ends up on the ground. This guy is a stylistic carbon copy of his older brother, Nick Diaz, who has long been recognized as one of the best in the sport, pound for pound. That is a serious compliment for any fighter.

Diaz will come out with nonstop pressure. He wants to throw hands early and often in every fight, and he does so by constantly walking forward while he paws, slaps and grabs with his right hand. Those moves are designed to gauge the distance so that he can turn over his right with a sharp hook, fire straight lefts down the pipe, and, of course, pop the jab.

Diaz literally does that over and over again while mixing in venom-laden trash talking. His mouth often moves as much as his hands in fights because Diaz is working hard to get into his opponent’s head. It works often, too. Guys will want to hurt him. They will fight from emotion. That means they will become overly aggressive, which allows the master counterpuncher to take full advantage of an opponent fighting out of character.

Just ask Donald Cerrone. The “Cowboy” is one of the best standup fighters in the division. Yet, he got thoroughly undressed on the feet by Diaz. Why? Cerrone fought like a crazy man, presumably because he was so angry at Diaz for all the pre-fight banter that he wanted to show the Stockton-native a lesson. Cerrone received one instead.

Diaz hopes to get inside of Bendo’s head in the same way. He will fire insults that require lots of #@#% symbols, rather than letters, when typing up quotes. Those insults will be just before, during and fresh on the heels of punches. He will be the Energizer Bunny of trash talking, particularly if he sees Bendo getting angry.

Take an angry, emotional opponent and hammer away at him with unyielding pressure and what has to be the highest fistic work rate in the division, and it is easy to see how Diaz is able to break opponents en route to victory. He will look to do that on Saturday night.

If the fight ends up on the ground, Diaz will enjoy a healthy advantage over the champion. His Cesar Gracie-honed submission skills are legendary in the UFC. Indeed, half of his 10 post-fight bonuses came thanks to a “Submission of the Night” award. He is equally adept from his guard or from the top position. That is rare, particularly in the current era, but it is certainly the case with the challenger.

The problem, however, is Diaz has extremely limited takedown skills, whereas the champion has very good anti-wrestling. Thus, it is unlikely that he will be able to rely on his submission skills if he is struggling on the feet against Bendo.

What does all that add up to? This seems be a standup affair from start to finish. Can the champion remain tactically proficient and committed to a game plan with lots of angles and lateral movement? Will Diaz impose his will through his trademark pressure-first style and fantastic boxing skills? I think those two questions will decide the outcome.

QUICK FACTS

Benson Henderson
• 17-2 overall
• 5-9, 155 lbs
• 70-inch reach
• 29 years old
• Second UFC title defense
• 9-1 in last 10 fights
• 5-0 in last five
• Six consecutive fights have gone the distance (5-1 in those fights)
• 23.5% of wins by KO/TKO
• 35.3% of wins by submission
• 41.2%of wins by judges’ decision
• Has never been knocked out as a professional
• Fight of the Night twice
• Current layoff is 119 days
• Longest layoff of career is 236 days

Nate Diaz
• 16-7 overall
• 6-0, 155 lbs
• 76-inch reach
• 27 years old
• First UFC title fight
• 6-4 in last 10 fights
• 3-2 in last five (3-0 as a lightweight)
• Five of last six wins inside the distance
• 18.7% of wins by KO/TKO
• 68.7% of wins by submission
• 12.5%of wins by judges’ decision
• Has never been knocked out as a professional
• 10 post-fight awards (Fight of the Night 5x; Submission of the Night 5x)
• Current layoff is 217 days
• Longest layoff of career is 310 days

It’s the most talked about topic in mixed martial arts.

Georges St-Pierre versus Anderson Silva. Just writing those words evokes palpable anticipation. How often do fans get the opportunity to truly witness the two best fighters in the world, pound for pound, meeting at the peak of their reign?

Honestly, I cannot think of a single instance in the Zuffa era of the UFC where the two unquestioned pound-for-pound best met to decide who was the single best fighter in the world.

If you can think of an example, feel free to expound on it below. But I’ve been sitting here racking my brain and scouring the Internet trying to disprove my belief that it has never before happened in the current version of the UFC.

BJ Penn’s win over Matt Hughes in 2004 doesn’t qualify because Penn hadn’t yet hit legendary status in the mythical pound-for-pound debate until that shockingly decisive win. Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell were a couple of years and a few bad performances past the prime of their respective careers when they met in 2007. Randy Couture? Nope, he was never in the pound-for-pound debate during any of his big fights. Jon Jones? He may take umbrage at GSP holding the number two spot, possibly even rightfully so, but “Bones” has never faced a fellow pound-for-pound candidate after he rose to elite status.

The UFC isn’t any different than boxing in this regard. Pound-for-pound candidates rarely square off in the primes of their career. Look at the current list of greats. Floyd Mayweather Jr. is universally recognized as the best in the world. Manny Pacquiao used to challenge that distinction, which is why the two squaring off likely would have been the biggest fight in the history of the sport. But the pair couldn’t agree to terms. Now the “sell by” date may have expired due to Pacquiao’s recent loss to Timothy Bradley.

That brings us back to GSP versus Silva. This is the perfect time to make that epic matchup a reality. Not only will it likely shatter all UFC box office records. It will also definitively answer the question of who is the current alpha dog in the world of MMA.

Why is this the perfect time, you ask? Well, let me dive into that question.

Silva is in the midst of a historic championship run. His 10 consecutive successful title defenses is the most in history, doubling the previous best. Oh yeah, GSP has also beaten the old record. He now stands three fights behind Silva with seven consecutive successful defenses. Take away the nearly 19-month break to rehab his torn anterior cruciate ligament and GSP could very well be equal with or beyond Silva’s mark.

Those facts, in and of themselves, is enough to justify the fight. But there is more. Oh, so much more.

Silva not only holds the record for most consecutive successful title defenses. He also holds the records for most title wins, most consecutive UFC wins, longest title reign based on duration, and the most finishes. He has been so dominant that every fight he has been in, except for the first bout with Chael Sonnen, has more closely resembled a sparring match than a championship fight.

That is great. But Silva’s insane run of success makes many wonder whether he is growing bored with the challenges in front of him. Is he still training as hard as he used to? Is he still laser focused on growing as a martial artist? Does he still have the same hunger for the sport that he did when he was fighting for a paycheck, rather than to add on to what is already a secure financial future?

In other words, is Silva ripe for an upset? Many seem to think so. That is why guys below him in the middleweight food chain are champing at the bit to get into the cage with this guy. Does Michael Bisping, Chris Weidman, Vitor Belfort, Mark Munoz or any other 185-pound top challenger truly believe that they can beat Silva when he is at his absolute best? Maybe. Do they think they can win a three-fight series? They will say yes, but I’m not so sure that they will be speaking the truth (the whole truth and nothing but the truth).

Silva also turns 38 in five months. In other words, he is no spring chicken anymore. Not only does he have to contend with hungry young fighters wanting to take off his head. He also has to contend with Father Time, an opponent that defeats every athlete at some point.

But the biggest reason that this is the perfect time for Silva to challenge GSP is his legacy. Silva has two fights left on his contract. A Hollywood ending to his career would be a win over GSP at some catch weight – sorry, Firas Zahabi, asking Silva to make 170 pounds is, well, just silly—and then win over 205 pound champion Jon Jones.

Adding those two names to his resume would leave Silva with a legacy that wouldn’t likely be duplicated for decades, if ever. Granted, nobody can predict the future. Maybe Jones will do things that Silva can only dream of. Maybe some teenager or pre-teen is out there who will top them all. But the odds seem pretty long on any of those Silva-topping scenarios at the moment.

If Silva faces Jones first, a fight will GSP will be completely anticlimactic. Think about it. Would you buy GSP versus Silva, if Silva was fresh off a win over the 205-pound king? I would watch it, but not with the same anticipation that I currently have for the matchup.

Now is also the right time, when considering the matchup from GSP’s perspective. He recently overcame the toughest hurdle of his career by surviving the ultra-tough Carlos Condit after a nearly 19-month injury-induced layoff. Johny Hendricks is likely waiting in the wings. Did anyone see what he did to Martin Kampmann? What about Jon Fitch?

GSP might be the rightful betting favorite over Hendricks, but does he really want to risk the most lucrative and historically significant fight out there for him by facing the southpaw slugger? I certainly wouldn’t risk it because that will render a fight with Silva completely irrelevant.

Plus, if GSP faces Silva at a catch weight, rather than the absurd notion of making the “Spider” drop to 170, it is a no-lose proposition. GSP’s belt won’t be on the line, and if he loses, he can chalk it up to a loss to a far larger man in a weight class north of where he is at his best. He will return to welterweight as the reigning champion and continue with his quest to break the standards of greatness that Silva continues to establish.

I know. This is a David versus Goliath scenario. Silva is a better (and much bigger) version of Condit, so what makes anyone think that GSP can score the upset? Why take a fight that the fans desperately want to see, if GSP is nothing more than a sacrificial lamb for the sport’s current undisputed kingpin?

I’ll tell you why. People said all the same things about BJ Penn’s decision to challenge Matt Hughes for the welterweight championship after twice failing to win the lightweight title. Penn didn’t care. He moved up one weight class and completely destroyed Matt Hughes, a man who many believed at the time was the sport’s pound-for-pound king.

Who is to say that GSP can’t do the same thing?

JUST ANOTHER DAY AT THE OFFICE

Georges St-Pierre probably feels like he was in a car wreck right about now.

I’m quite sure that his head is throbbing. His hands are undoubtedly sore. His muscles are still filled with lactic acid. And his face…well…let’s just say he won’t be posing for any photo shoots until the swelling subsides and the cuts heal.

There is no doubt that GSP was in a fight on Saturday night. There is also no doubt that Carlos Condit presented the most formidable challenge that the champion has faced in quite some time. Condit badly hurt GSP in the third with a spectacular head kick. It was probably GSP’s scariest moment since getting knocked out by Matt Serra.

Yet, if we are being perfectly honest with ourselves, it was a very one-sided fight. GSP dominated from bell to bell. He even expertly recovered from the thunderous head kick to dominate the majority of the round. I scored the third 10-10, by the way.

The nearly 19-month layoff due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament certainly left GSP less than razor sharp, and he definitely tired a bit more quickly than usual. Nonetheless, I think GSP’s performance was spectacular, all things considered. Let’s not forget that he had one of the most talented guys in the sport trying to take his head off for 25 minutes.

Fans looking to find fault with his performance will probably point to the fact that we are coming up on the four-year anniversary since GSP last stopped an opponent. Then again, he faced Thiago Alves, Dan Hardy, Josh Koscheck, Jake Shields and Carlos Condit during that period. That is about as close to Murderer’s Row as we have in the UFC. The mere fact that he ran through those guys in dominant fashion, albeit needing the judges to tell him that he won, is a remarkable feat. Criticizing him for not stopping one or more of them borders on absurd.

I know. I know. Everyone wants to talk about the 600-lb elephant in the room right now. 347 words into the piece before the name Anderson Silva appears. I’m saving my thoughts on that one for its own op-ed piece tomorrow because I have plenty on my mind.

IS HENDRICKS THE TOP CONTENDER?

Johny Hendricks desperately wants to receive his first shot at UFC gold. On Saturday night, he made an extremely compelling argument that he deserves to be next in line.

Hendricks folded up Martin Kampmann with what appeared to be a left hand thrown from less than the proper distance. Heck, the shot didn’t look like it landed cleanly. Yet, Kampmann was left in an heap on the canvas.

For those watching the fight, I’m sure they reacted like I did.  WOW! This guy has amazingly devastating power in his left hand.

Hendricks has quietly put together a string of victories that is difficult to ignore. Five straight wins. His last three opponents—Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck and now Kampmann—have long been viewed as top contenders in the division. Yet, Hendricks dispatched each of them.

It’s time for the former Oklahoma State University wrestling superstar to fight for the title. He has earned it.

CANADIANS STRUGGLE EARLY

Francis Carmont secured the first victory of the main card telecast for the Canadians. But I’m not sure the judges got it correct. It was a tough fight to score. I’ll just leave it at that and move on.

Well, I’ll move on in a minute.

The split decision win extended Carmont’s winning streak to nine fights, including four inside the Octagon. He needs to up the effort to toss his name into the middleweight mix. But he isn’t far behind at this point. Do you think he won the fight? I want some honest opinions in the comment section below.

Now, I will move on.

Mark Bocek probably thought that Rafael dos Anjos was just what the doctor ordered to extend his current winning streak to three and also get the first Canadian victory of the telecast. After all, he cited his foe’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu as a weakness that he could exploit. Bocek made those statements knowing that dos Anjos was a BJJ black belt.

It was an interesting pre-fight comment from a fighter who is known as being extremely technical. Whether Bocek’s BJJ is significantly better than dos Anjos’ remains to be seen. His takedowns weren’t good enough on Saturday night to find out. As a result, dos Anjos is the one who extended his winning streak to three, and Bocek didn’t stop the Canadian slide that opened the card.

At the end of the day, both of these guys have the skills to make a difference in the division. Yet, the Brazilian is the one who has been able to step up in big moments. Bocek has come up short each time he has faced a true A-level opponent. Frankie Edgar, Jim Miller, Benson Henderson, Mac Danzig and now dos Anjos. Those are Bocek’s UFC conquerors.  Not a bad crowd for dos Anjos to be associated with.

HOMINICK KNOWS WHAT HE NEEDS TO DO

Mark Hominick has been in lots of memorable fights in the UFC. This guy is one of the more exciting fighters on the roster, pound for pound. The problem, however, is Hominick struggles from his back, as he showed against Pablo Garza. That was the lone reason that he lost the fight. Well, that and his inability to stop takedowns.

Garza has excellent ground skills. It wasn’t surprising to see him control the action once it hit the canvas. Yet, I was surprised at how easy it was for him to take Hominick down. Maybe it was an off night for the Canadian. Maybe Garza is just that much better. I don’t know. Whatever the case, Garza easily won the fight.

Hominick needs to shore up his guard and takedown defense, if he wants to truly make a difference in the featherweight division. If not, he will still be unbelievably exciting. I just don’t think he will rise to the top of the division.

Top collegiate wrestler versus Danish kickboxer.

Seems like a really easy fight to break down, doesn’t it? The wrestler will look for the takedown, while the kickboxer will focus on keeping the fight on the feet.

Sounds good in practice, but that won’t likely be the approach that the two men will take on Saturday night.

Johny Hendricks wrestled for four years at Oklahoma State University. He earned two national championships during his tenure and two other top 10 finishes. He is exactly what you expect from a championship-level NCAA wrestler—physically and mentally strong, with a deep gas tank. He has great takedowns and excellent ground control. But he prefers not to use those skills. Why? Because he loves to stand and bang. And this guy just so happens to have the fistic power and chin to stand toe-to-toe with just about anyone, including Martin Kampmann.

Kampmann is a Danish kickboxer turned mixed martial artist. That means he has the ability to use his fists, elbows, knees and shins to destroy those standing across from him. But as odd as it may sound, he has demonstrated a far greater capacity for ground fighting during his time in the UFC. I’m sure he isn’t afraid to stand with Hendricks, but he will be licking his chops for the fight to hit the canvas.

A wrestler who prefers to stand and bang versus a kickboxer who prefers to fight on the ground? Yes, you read that correctly. That is Hendricks versus Kampmann in a nutshell.

So what does all that mean? Unless I’m completely crazy, which is certainly a possibility, I think Hendricks will come out looking for a savage knockout, whereas Kampmann will try to potshot from the outside hoping for an opportunity to take the fight to the ground.

The problem, of course, is that Kampmann doesn’t possess the wrestling skills to take Hendricks down with any sort of regularity. He may get the former OSU star to the ground once.  But he is far better off baiting Hendricks to take him down than working for a takedown himself.

Don’t get me wrong.  Kampmann is the far superior striker, in terms of technique. But Hendricks has a serious edge in explosiveness and raw, unadulterated power. That is why Kampmann needs to be very careful in the standup arena.

As a result, Kampmann will look to dart in and out with quick, calculated isolated punches and two-piece combinations. He should finish those combinations with inside and outside leg kicks. Since he isn’t afraid of being taken down, he should pound away at his foe’s lower body to help sap Hendricks’ explosive power.

If he can wear out Hendricks through the first two rounds, then he will be more likely to stand in the pocket and trade in search of a third round knockout. Early in the bout, by contrast, standing in the pocket against a guy with Hendricks’ punching power could be disastrous.

With that said, Kampmann has the technique to knock out Hendricks or anyone else at any moment. He may score a dramatic early knockout via flying knee or an unseen punch. But that won’t be his game plan. I guarantee it, because he is smarter than that.

Hendricks is a slugger’s slugger. Much like with iconic UFC figure Chuck Liddell, Hendricks likes to use his wrestling in a defensive manner, so that he can keep the fight on the feet and use his fists. Also like with Liddell, Hendricks carries real first-order power in his strikes. Whether he accomplishes even half of what Liddell did remains to be seen. But their approach to the fight game is pretty similar.

That means the former wrestler will come out looking to bomb from Jump Street. He knows that he has both a straight left hand and a right hook that can end the fight in the blink of an eye. His kicks and knees are nothing to write home about. It is unlikely that he will engage in any lower body strikes from a distance. But he also isn’t afraid to let Kampmann try to attack his legs. All it takes is Hendricks catching one of those kicks and firing a straight left for the fight to be over in an instant.

Hendricks will also look to win the battle of foot position, striving to keep his lead right foot on the outside of Kampmann’s lead left foot. That will create the appropriate angle for him to land a lead left hand down the middle or over the top. Either way, the strike will be thrown with savage intentions. If it lands, it is good night baby!

Kampmann will also look to win the battle of foot position. His focus, however, will be to get on the outside of his opponent’s lead right foot and continue circling to his own left in order to avoid the carnage. It will be about angles and escape, not throwing lanes down the middle.

The risk in spending too much time in the pocket looking for shots down the middle is Hendricks’ ability to counter. When pressed, Hendricks reacts by throwing C4-level bombs back at his attacker. Kampmann has been stopped twice by strikes in his career. If he engages in too many firefights with Hendricks, Saturday night could be number three.

This is definitely one of those bouts that could end in a variety of ways, so I’ll hang my prediction in a ridiculously qualified sort of way.

If the fight ends in a submission, it will be Kampmann all day every day.

If it ends by knockout due to a punch in the first or second round, I’m thinking Hendricks all the way. If it is in the final round, then I like Kampmann.

If it ends by a knockout due to a kick or knee at any point in the fight, Kampmann will be the winner.

If the bout lasts the distance, then I lean toward Kampmann. Hendricks can certainly win a 15-minute fight, but Kampmann should have the edge, if it lasts the fully allotted time.

QUICK FACTS:

Johny Hendricks
•    13-1
•    5’9, 170 lbs
•    29 yrs old
•    4-1 in his last 5 (riding 4-fight winning streak)
•    9-1 in his last 10
•    53.8% of wins by KO/TKO
•    7.7% of wins by submission
•    38.% of wins by decision
•    Only professional loss by decision
•    KO of the Night 2x
•    Current layoff is 196 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 263 days

Martin Kampmann
•    20-5
•    6’0, 170 lbs
•    30 yrs old
•    3-2 in his last 5
•    7-3 in his last 10
•    40% of wins by KO/TKO
•    35% of wins by submission
•    20% of wins by decision
•    5% of wins by disqualification
•    Has never been submitted (Stopped 3 times, once via cuts)
•    Four post-fight awards (Submission of the Night 2x; Fight of the Night; Knockout of the Night)
•    Current layoff is 169 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 267 days