Author: By Michael DiSanto

STRUVE ANOINTED AS A HEAVYWEIGHT PREFERITI

There was a time when a seven-footer in MMA was nothing more than a circus show. Those days are long gone, as Stefan Struve proved on Saturday night. This seven-footer isn’t a circus show. He is a legitimate contender for the UFC heavyweight championship. His knockout win over Stipe Miocic proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Here is the scary part about Struve: the guy is only 24 years old. That means two things. First, he remains a sponge soaking up knowledge of the sport as he continues to develop his offensive game. This guy has always had a sick ground game, but his striking is truly starting to catch up. It won’t be long before he is equally dangerous on the ground or the feet.

Second, he hasn’t developed his “old man” weight and strength yet. That is equally significant. Struve is significantly more muscular than he was when he debuted in the UFC as a 21-year-old. But he still has room for more. At 251 pounds, he is 14 pounds under the heavyweight limit. I think Struve should pack on another 30 or so and cut down to 265 pounds, just like Brock Lesnar used to. Assuming he retains his quickness and nimbleness with the extra weight, which should be no problem using today’s training techniques, this guy will be that much more dangerous.

Struve is now 9-3 in the UFC, including four in a row. And he is quickly becoming one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. His last eight fights have ended with a knockout or a submission. That is must-see TV.
    
By the way, the seven-footer is the tallest competitor in the UFC. His reach, at 84.5 inches, is also the longest in the promotion. But he doesn’t hold that distinction by himself. Some guy named Jon Jones also has an 84.5-inch reach. Starting to understand why so many cognoscenti refer to Jones as a physical freak?

HARDY STARTING TO RIGHT THE SHIP

Dan Hardy started out his UFC career with four consecutive wins. That stretch earned him a shot at UFC champion Georges St-Pierre. It also began a four-fight stretch where he was winless. A long inactive stretch followed, as Hardy tried to rediscover both his confidence and his winning mojo.

“The Outlaw” has now won back-to-back fights, and he is looking more and more like the monster who took the UFC by storm back in 2009. His win over Amir Sadollah was a thorough, methodical beating that expertly mixed his vaunted striking and one of the newer wrinkles in his game—takedowns.

I think Hardy should continue mixing up his offensive attack. He was far too comfortable looking solely for his savage left hook during his first couple of years in the UFC. That almost certainly contributed significantly to his four-fight winless streak. The more he mixes it up going forward; the tougher he is going to be to beat.

PICKETT FINALLY MAKES GOOD ON THE NAME

I’ve got to admit that I seriously doubted Brad Pickett’s moniker. How can someone call himself “one punch” when he didn’t have a single knockout win through his first six UFC / WEC fights? For that matter, he had twice as many submissions as knockouts in his career heading into Saturday night.

And then he unleashed a right uppercut that silenced all of his critics, including me.

When Pickett’s right hand touched Yves Jabouin’s chin, it was nighty night. Jabouin was out before he hit the canvas. It was one of the more spectacular knockouts that I’ve ever seen in the bantamweight division. I guess I’ll give the guy a break on his moniker. Well done, “One Punch.” Well done, indeed.

HATHAWAY KEEPS ON KEEPIN’ ON

Everybody talks about Rory MacDonald as the heir apparent to the UFC welterweight championship. There is no doubt that the 23-year-old competitor has the sort of potential that makes other fighters green with envy. I’m a little surprised that pundits don’t talk about John Hathaway with the same reverence. His win over John Maguire increased his UFC record to 7-1, including wins over Diego Sanchez and Rick Story. Let’s not forget that this guy is only 25 years old, so he is just a baby in the sport.

If I had to guess why he remains significantly farther down the hype totem pole than his slightly younger colleague, it is due to the fact that Hathaway doesn’t finish fights. After starting his UFC career with an impressive first round technical knockout win, Hathaway’s next seven fights have all lasted the full 15 minutes. It’s one thing to win. It’s another to win by submission or knockout.

MacDonald, by contrast, is 4-1 in the UFC, with four finishes. Hathaway will eventually earn a title shot, if he keeps winning. But MacDonald will likely get there first, if he keeps finishing opponents.

CRAZY ENDING FOR MILLS-LUDWIG

Duane “Bang” Ludwig is one tough hombre. I have no idea what happened during his bout with Che Mills. But it was very uncharacteristic for Ludwig to throw in the towel after what appeared to be a non-contact injury to his left knee. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. Non-contact knee injuries happen all the time in other sports. Professional football fans know that. Darrelle Revis, arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, tore his anterior cruciate ligament last week in just such a fashion.  But it is exceedingly rare in the UFC.

Mills was understandably frustrated after the fight. The ending was anti-climactic.  It was unsatisfying. And it certainly didn’t answer any questions about where either man stands in the welterweight division.

PERALTA MAKES A 145-LB STATEMENT

Robbie Peralta extended his unbeaten streak to 10 fights with a sensational knockout of Jason Young. It was Peralta’s first fight of 2012, despite the fact that the year is basically 75% complete. Despite his serious inactivity this year, Peralta’s fists sent a resounding message to the featherweight division. This guy is no joke. He isn’t yet a household name among UFC featherweight fans. Yet, I think he is only a fight or two away from putting himself at or near the front of the championship challenger queue.
 

Antonio Silva is one big dude. That is why he is adorned with the nickname “Bigfoot.” The Brazilian is six-feet, four-inches tall and cuts weight to make the UFC’s 265-pound heavyweight limit.  And his hands, when clenched, more closely resemble sledgehammer heads than fists.

It’s rare that Bigfoot finds himself facing a similarly sized man in competition. But that is precisely what will happen on Friday night, when Silva returns to the Octagon for a second time. Travis Browne might be a dozen or so pounds lighter than his foe, but he is three inches taller. Thus, Silva will be looking up at Browne when the action gets underway, something he hasn’t often had to do in his professional fighting career.

I’m not sure what any of that means, other than two giants will be fighting in the main event of Friday’s FX broadcast. The far more relevant question is whether Browne will continue to separate himself from the heavyweight pack, as he searches for his first opportunity at UFC gold. That will be no easy task, because Silva is a rough and tumble heavyweight, who just so happens to sport black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, karate and judo, a great combination for mixed martial arts success.

The only black belt Browne owns is the one that holds up his trousers when wearing black shoes. But that is OK. He isn’t worried about the non-MMA accomplishments of his opponents. He is more interested in learning if Silva can pass the chin checker test. “Hapa” is a master of asking that question.

It’s a question that many believe that Silva won’t be able to answer. The Brazilian has been knocked out three times in his career, including in each of his last two fights. The reason for that is a simple one. The monstrous heavyweight might be a great offensive fighter. But he is only average, to below average, when it comes to defending strikes.

Silva’s head movement is almost nonexistent. His footwork is good, but that alone doesn’t address the lack of head movement. Instead, Silva prefers to avoid incoming fire by keeping his opponents on the defensive with constant pressure.

That is a dangerous game plan against a guy like Browne, who not only packs his vale tudo gloves with nuclear warheads, but also is extremely light on his feet. One left or right hand counter on the button from Hapa, and Silva may be left counting the ceiling lights.  He can create opportunities for quick, explosive counters by using good lateral movement in the face of an attack. Not running circles around the cage. Quick sidesteps to change angles.

Silva showed that he has no real answer for a heavyweight who has active hands and quick feet. Pull up video of his fight with Cain Velasquez in Silva’s UFC debut. The former Strikeforce standout was completely lost on the feet against the far quicker, more accurate Velasquez. Browne has those same skills. He may not be as quick as Velasquez. Few heavyweights are. But he is quick enough and has greater show stopping power in his fists.

To avoid ending up slumped on the canvas, Silva needs to turn this into an ugly, clinch-filled fight. Remember that he is heavier and likely stronger of the two. His black belt in judo will come in very handy during infighting moments. He can throw Browne or just use technique to smother him against the cage and use dirty boxing.

The former is how Cheick Kongo neutralized Browne in what should have been the Hawaiian’s lone loss of his career. Kongo’s decision to hold onto Browne’s shorts more than a few times led to a one point deduction and a draw, rather than a judges’ decision win. Silva should watch the tape of that fight and try to emulate Kongo’s performance.

If the opportunity presents itself, Silva should use his judo to throw Browne to the canvas. Hapa is a savage striker, but we don’t know how good his guard game really is at this point, because nobody has really been able to test him in that position.

Silva has more than enough top game to do more than test Browne’s guard. He likely has the skills to crack it.

I like Silva every day of the week and twice on Friday if he is able to put Browne on his back and keep him there. Whether he pounds him out, moves into side control and chokes him out or some other ending, I think Silva wins in that position.

On the other hand, I favor Browne by leaps and bounds, if the fight remains standing. And I like him by Knockout of the Night-type ending.

Who is going to win? Browne seems like a comfortable favorite. Remember, this guy hasn’t yet experienced the sour taste of defeat as a professional, so when the going gets tough, he will remain confident in his ability to pull out a win. Silva has a handful of losses, so when adversity hits, he may fall into a “here we go again” mode. That is another reason why I lean toward Browne.

Despite all the Xs and Os, the one thing that is true about each and every heavyweight matchup is that it only takes one mistake to forever change the course of history, particularly when two behemoths like these guys lock horns.  I like Browne to win, but I’m more convinced that it will be a great fight with a spectacular ending than I am in my belief that the Hawaiian will maintain his unbeaten streak.

QUICK FACTS:

Travis Browne
•    13-0-1
•    6’7, 255 lbs
•    30 years old
•    69.2% of wins by KO/TKO
•    15.4% of wins by submission
•    15.4% of wins by decision
•    Each of his last six stoppages occurred inside the first round
•    Two post-fight awards in his last three fights (Knockout of the Night; Submission of the Night)
•    Current layoff is 167 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 224 days

Antonio Silva
•    16-4
•    6’4, 265 lbs
•    33 years old
•    3-2 in last 5 (including back-to-back losses heading into this fight)
•    7-3 in last 10
•    68.7% of wins by KO/TKO
•    18.7% of wins by submission
•    12.5% of wins by decision
•     3 of 4 losses by KO/TKO
•    Current layoff is 132 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 262 days

JONES CONTINUES TO MAKE HIS ‘BONES’ AS CHAMPION

Jon Jones is such an amazingly gifted fighter that he makes his job look easy. In five championship fights, he has faced Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort. All five of those individuals are former champions. Jones dominated each one of them.

Read that list of names again. Are you starting to comprehend how impressive Jones has been so far in his career?

For my money, Saturday was the most impressive effort of the champion’s young career to date. Shutting down Belfort was something that most expected. Yet, nobody expected that Jones would have to survive unbelievable adversity in order to win the fight.

The first-round armbar that Belfort slipped into place was picture perfect. When Jones attempted to stand and pull out, it actually allowed Belfort to further crank the hold. The challenger acknowledged that he heard the ligaments and tendons in the elbow popping as it was torqued into a grotesque position.

Jones was done for all intents and purposes at that moment. He should have been, at least. But he didn’t quit. He refused to tap, accepting that his arm was about to break, which would have led to an instant stoppage. Still, he refused to shortcut what seemed to be the inevitable. If Belfort wanted his belt, the Brazilian had to rip Jones’ arm off.

Jones eventually got out of the hold. Only time will tell how much damage the armbar caused him, so I’m not sure that hanging on like that was necessarily the smartest career decision. Nevertheless, it answered one significant question that Jones had yet to be asked by an opponent in his career:  How will Jon Jones react when he faces significant adversity in a fight?

The answer:  Stay calm, remain patient and continue looking for a way to win.

You can’t teach that sort of heart and conviction to victory. Guys either have it or they don’t. Jones has it.

Assuming the arm injury doesn’t have lingering effects, Jones’ sick upside just got a little higher.

WHAT IS NEXT FOR JONNY BONES?

Despite only having four successful title defenses under his belt, it already seems like Jones has completely cleaned out the 205-pound division. His last five fights have been against a murderers row of opponents. Regardless, three names are conspicuously absent from his conquered list.

Dan Henderson. Alexander Gustafsson. Anderson Silva.

No disrespect to Shogun, Machida, Jackson or Evans, but Jones annihilated each of those guys. None of them did anything to suggest that a rematch would turn out any differently.

Phil Davis is a name that has been bandied about. But he was completely shut down by Evans. I know that just because A beats B and B beats C doesn’t mean that A beats C. But Jones is better than Evans at every aspect of the game. Thus, in this one instance, the logic tree seems to apply.

That just leaves the three aforementioned names. Let’s take a look at them one at a time.

Henderson is in the midst of a career rebirth. He has won seven of his last eight fights, including what many consider the best run of his professional career over his current four-fight unbeaten streak.  Henderson arguably has the perfect style to score the upset. He is a former Olympic wrestler, so it seems unlikely that Jones will be able to take him down with the same ease that he has experienced with each of his other opponents. Hendo has an iron chin, so he can take two or three strikes from Jones in order to give one back. And Hendo arguably has the single-most devastating right hand in the history of the division. The best part about the potential matchup is the fact that Jones is already asking to fight him next. That makes Hendo the most likely next opponent.

Gustafsson is an interesting choice. The 25-year-old Swede is next in line after Jones in terms of most potential in the division, in my opinion. He is in the midst of a five-fight winning streak, so he appears to be peaking for his first title shot. This guy is tall, long and has exceptional boxing skills. The problem with Gustafsson is his lack of wrestling. Davis exploited that hole in his game a few years ago and used it to grind out an impressive victory. It seems logical that Jones could do the same thing. Yet, with Gustafsson’s boxing skills, anything can happen, if Jones opts to stand and strike with him.

Silva versus Jones. Need I say more? This would be an enormous event, one that could potentially solidify Silva’s claim as the best ever, regardless of what he does in his career from that point forward (or if he retires). The problem is that neither man seems overly interested in fighting the other right now. Silva is focused on Georges St-Pierre, assuming the pound-for-pound king gets past Stephan Bonnar next month and GSP defeats Carlos Condit in November. It makes sense for Silva to prefer GSP in the short term because that is a much easier matchup for him strictly based on their respective physical sizes. But a win over GSP will instantly shine a spotlight on Silva-Jones.  The problem, of course, is that Jones has repeatedly shrugged off the question of facing Silva. Is there a hint of intimidation there?

BELFORT QUIETS THE CRITICS

I’ll make this quick and dirty. The odds makers showed Vitor Belfort absolutely no respect when they set the odds for the UFC 152 main event. They treated him as a sacrificial lamb being served up to further the reign of the sport’s chosen one.

All Belfort did was come closer to defeating Jones than anyone else in the champion’s career. Not bad for a guy who many thought would be nothing more than a punching bag. Not bad at all

Belfort’s performance absolutely solidifies his position as a top contender back in the middleweight division. I don’t care that he got dominated after the first round. He nearly ripped off the champion’s arm in the first. Team Belfort should be very proud of their man’s effort.

BISPING LOOKS READY

Fans either love or hate Michael Bisping. Very few appear indifferent about the brash Brit. Yet, all should finally acknowledge that this guy is ready for his first crack at a UFC championship. His dismantling of a very game Brian Stann vividly demonstrates that point.

It is tough to argue against the comment that Bisping was better than Stann in every aspect of the game on Saturday night. He landed more strikes. He avoided more strikes. He scored more takedowns. And he was more effective on the ground.

Bisping should be enjoying a six-fight winning streak. He is, instead, on a one-fight winning streak because he was robbed against Chael Sonnen back in January. Now that he has added Stann as a victim, it is tough to argue that anyone is more deserving of a chance at 185-pound glory than “The Count.”

Yes, I know that Chris Weidman looked great against Mark Munoz. But Bisping should have back-to-back wins over Sonnen and Stann. That makes for a better justification for a title shot, in my opinion.

WILL STANN EVER TAKE IT TO THE NEXT LEVEL?

Brian Stann is a well deserved fan favorite. The guy brings it each and every time he steps into the cage. He is a war hero. And he is one of the nicest, most genuine guys you would ever be fortunate enough to meet, according to those close to him.

Oh yes, he also happens to be an extremely talented mixed martial artist.

A guy like that is going to have a long, lucrative fight career. The question, however, is will he ever become a champion?

Stann has now come up short in both of his bouts against top-of-the-food-chain middleweights.  Sonnen outwrestled him. Bisping simply beat him. Those two bouts raise a question about the affable middleweight’s competitive ceiling.

Stann turned 32 years old today (happy birthday, big fella), so he is certainly in the midst of his fighting prime. Does that mean he has reached his ceiling? There is a good argument that he has, indeed, become all he can be. After all, most UFC athletes aren’t making any further transformative improvements by the time they turn 32.

Stann may be one of the exceptions to that rule. He is a latecomer to the sport, so he remains very much a work in progress at this stage in his career. I have seen significant improvement from Stann with each and every fight, other than at UFC 152. Bisping is either that much better than him, or Stann has started to regress a bit with his footwork and striking creativity.  

For the record, I think his performance was more about how good Bisping really is than any slippage or plateauing of Stann’s skills. I think this guy will find a way to earn a title shot in 2013. Can anyone say Stann-Weidman, assuming Weidman gets past Tim Boetsch at the end of the year? That seems like a perfect “next in line” bout behind Bisping in the championship queue.

What’s up with the little fellas?

That is the uninformed reaction I often receive when I begin talking about grown men who weigh 125 pounds fighting each other. Then, it is typically followed by an asinine statement along the lines of “there is no 125-pound man in the world who can whip my [insert favorite term for rear end]…my girlfriend weighs that much.”

That sort of talk typically comes out of the mouth of someone who weighs somewhere in the 180-pound vicinity. But that isn’t a fighting weight 180 pounds. We’re talking very out of shape walking around 180 pounds. Translate that into a real fighting weight, and we’re now talking about somewhere in the 135- to 145-pound range. Of course, that is if Mr. Bigmouth would even have the stones to fight at any weight. But that is a different op-ed piece altogether.

The informed reaction is more along these lines: “How insanely fast and well conditioned are those guys? Watching them fight is like watching light heavyweights compete with the DVR on fast forward, except they never seem to get tired.”

Now, that is more like it.

No two UFC competitors embody that thought more closely than Joseph Benavidez and Demetrious Johnson, which is probably why they are currently considered the top two 125-pound fighters on the planet. On Saturday night, the pair will square off to crown the inaugural UFC flyweight champion.

On paper, the two combatants are almost mirror images of each other. When they stand across from each other inside the Octagon, they will look very similar physically, and both men entered the sport with a solid amateur wrestling background – Benavidez with one year of collegiate competition and a high school state championship; Johnson with a couple of near misses in the high school state finals.

Both challenged Dominick Cruz for a 135-pound world championship – Benavidez two years ago in the WEC; Johnson last year in the UFC. Both lost by judges’ decision in entertaining fights.

Both have one UFC post-fight award on their relatively brief UFC resumes – Benavidez earned Knockout of the Night honors in his last bout; Johnson earned Fight of the Night honors two fights ago.

Both have competed 18 times as professional mixed martial artists with only two losses. Each of those losses came by way of judges’ decision. Neither has been knocked out or submitted as a professional. And both tend to win by submission more than any other outcome.

Seems like a pretty even matchup, doesn’t it? It certainly does from my standpoint. But there are some key differentiators that could ultimately decide the fight on Saturday night.

Statisticians often claim that numbers don’t lie. If that is the case, then this matchup seems to favor Johnson.

Interestingly enough, “Mighty Mouse” is both the more accurate striker and also the more successful wrestler, if one is judging purely by fight stats. In the nine fights tracked by FightMetric, Johnson has landed an average of 44 out of 90 strikes, which translates into a 44% connect rate. Compare that to Benavidez, who in 12 fights tracked by FightMetric, has landed only 28.5 out of 91 strikes. That is a major difference.

Some of that, of course, is due to the fact that Benavidez sits down a bit more on his punches. That is evidenced by the fact that he has a slight career knockout advantage over Johnson. The rest is due to the fact that Benavidez throws a higher percentage of his strikes from the standing position, rather than on the ground, which will naturally lead to a lower connect rate.

Johnson has also been the more effective wrestler in his fights, both offensively and defensively. He is successful on 54% of his takedown attempts and shuts down 55% of his opponent’s takedowns. Compare that to Benavidez, who has only succeeded on 22% of his takedowns and avoided 48% of his opponent’s efforts to take him to the ground.

Game over, right? If Johnson is the more accurate striker and the better in-fight wrestler, then he should have few problems solving the Benavidez puzzle, right?

Wrong.

I actually think this is a matchup that favors Benavidez simply because he is the better finisher, which helps mitigate the risk of a crazy judges’ decision. To quantify that statement, the Team Alpha Male standout has scored knockouts or submissions in four of his 10 UFC/WEC fights. Compare that to Johnson, who has only won inside the distance once in eight UFC/WEC bouts.

What that tells me is that Benavidez likes to live a bit more on the edge than Johnson. He is going to throw bombs in search of a knockout. If the fight hits the ground, he will be hammering away for a stoppage, while remaining keenly aware of opportunities to slap on a submission.

Johnson, by contrast, will more likely come out with a stick-and-move game plan that is designed to allow him to score while looking for a takedown. Once on the ground, his game plan will likely focus more on control than damage. That is often a very effective strategy, but it also means that the more explosive Benavidez will likely have 25 minutes to find a mistake that leads to a stoppage.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting that Johnson can’t win inside the distance. That is certainly possible. History merely suggests otherwise, so I’m suggesting that a knockout or submission win by Johnson isn’t probable.

Similarly, I’m not suggesting that Benavidez won’t win by decision. He certainly has the skills and gas tank to do just that. But he is the much more likely of the two to win inside the distance. And that is what makes me lean toward Benavidez on Saturday night.

QUICK FACTS:

Joseph Benavidez
•    28 years old
•    5’4, 125 lbs
•    16-2 overall
•    4-fight winning streak
•    4-1 in last 5 fights
•    8-2 in last 10 fights
•    Both career losses to current reigning Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz
•    0-1 in UFC/WEC title fights
•    25.0% of wins by KO/TKO
•    50% of wins by submission
•    25% of wins by decision
•    Knockout of the Night winner
•    Current layoff is 203 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 230 days

Demetrious Johnson
•    26 years old
•    5’3, 125 lbs
•    15-2-1 overall
•    3-1-1 in last 5 fights
•    7-2-1 in last 10
•    0-1 in UFC title fights
•    20% of career wins by KO/TKO
•    40% of career wins by SUB
•    40% of career wins by decision
•    Fight of the Night winner
•    Current layoff is 106 days
•    Longest layoff of his career is 366 days

On Saturday night, Jon Jones will return to the Octagon in an attempt to get one step closer to light heavyweight immortality.

A win would tie the champion with Chuck Liddell and Frank Shamrock as second most successful 205-pound champion in UFC history with four successful consecutive defenses of the crown. That is pretty remarkable when you consider that Jones won’t hit the one-year anniversary of his first successful defense (over Rampage Jackson) until two days after UFC 12?52.

But let’s not just assume that Jones will join those legendary fighters in the history books. That is putting the cart far, far before the horse because Jones must first win his bout. Despite what the oddsmakers are saying, a win is nowhere close to a sure thing. Former light heavyweight champ and heavyweight tournament king Vitor Belfort is nobody’s light lunch. Jones included. In fact, I’m going to go so far as to state that Belfort is both the most well rounded fighter and deadliest striker that Jones will have faced in his career to date.

How do you like them apples, Messrs. Oddsmakers?

Here is the deal. Jones might very well be the most gifted fighter to ever wear the 205-pound strap. Nearly a decade ago, many felt the same way about Belfort. Rewind it back another half decade and the entire sport thought that the Brazilian was destined for all-time greatness.

Remember Belfort’s debut at UFC 12? He was a 19-year-old kid who happened to be built like Adonis, had fists with the speed and power of Mike Tyson, and was a Carlson Gracie black belt. Oh yes, he also sported a Madison Avenue mug shot. Combine all that with the fact that it took him a scant 120 seconds to defeat Tre Telligman and Scott Ferrozzo to capture the heavyweight tournament title in Dothan, Alabama at UFC 12, and it is easy to understand why this guy was given the nickname “The Phenom.”

Of course, anyone who has followed Belfort’s career is all too familiar with the ups and downs that followed his amazing debut. He has dropped several bouts that most thought he should have won. His dedication to training has been questioned more than once. And the general sentiment is that he has never quite lived up to his vast potential.

Everything changed, however, a few years ago when the former teenage sensation realized that his days in the sport were getting numbered. His aura of invincibility long gone, even Belfort began looking into the mirror and wondering what could have been. That moment led to a career-altering decision. He opted to shed a few pounds of unneeded muscle and drop down to the 185-pound division. It was a dramatic weight cut. There is no doubt about that. But it allowed him to fight guys with similar physical frames, something he rarely got to enjoy competing in the light heavyweight and heavyweight divisions during his first decade in the sport.

The results were nothing short of astounding. Five wins in six fights—each in spectacular and utterly dominant fashion. He has looked every bit as good as the MMA world thought he could be 15 years ago. And rather than continue campaigning for a second crack at Anderson Silva’s middleweight crown, Belfort has chosen to shortcut his longing to regain UFC gold by moving back to the light heavyweight division and filling in for an injured Dan Henderson in what will likely be the final 205-pound title bout of 2012.
    
Belfort actually didn’t just agree to substitute for Henderson. He basically begged for the matchup, reaching out to UFC co-owner and chairman Lorenzo Fertitta when he heard that Henderson was injured.

UFC brass and the champion were more than happy to oblige Belfort after other highly ranked light heavyweights, including former champion Lyoto Machida, turned down the opportunity face “Bones” Jones on short notice.

So, here we are. Jon Jones versus Vitor Belfort. A champion knocking on the door of pound-for-pound greatness versus a former champion who seems to have harnessed greatness once again.

Again, I’m standing firmly behind the statement that Belfort can win this fight. He won’t be searching for a lottery ticket. He won’t be searching for a banana peel to place on the Octagon steps in the hopes of a slip-and-fall injury. And he certainly won’t be searching for a couple of inept judges to rob the champion via disgusting decision—you know what I’m talking about here.

Belfort will be searching for Jones’ chin. It is really that simple.

The Phenom knows that his best path to victory is to drop the champion to the canvas with one of his savage bombs. Whether the strike leads to an unconscious opponent, like it did against Rich Franklin, or opens the door for a submission, like it did against Anthony Johnson, Belfort knows that his standup game is his single key to victory.

That is a bit of a daunting reality because Jones is a wicked standup fighter in his own right. His striking isn’t the physical embodiment of C4, like with Belfort, but he has some of the most creative, unpredictable and effective striking in the division. Plus, Jones has a 10.5-inch reach advantage.

In other words, it is unlikely that the challenger will win a point-style kickboxing boxing bout. It will be too difficult for Belfort to hit without being hit. Too awkward for him to try and dart in and out without mixing it up. And the action will almost certainly unfold from a distance where it is difficult for Belfort to lead.

The Phenom must, therefore, embrace what already comes naturally to him—sitting back and countering. Even at 35 years old with nearly 16 years in the sport, Belfort remains one of the fastest fighters in the game – certainly one of those among the speed elite in the light heavyweight division.

That means waiting for Jones to lead with a lazy jab, which he does from time to time, or a long right hand. He needs to slip the strike, step in and fire like there is no tomorrow. Belfort’s blazing hand speed allows him to land both with insane force and velocity, but also to land very significant punches in bunches.

A major key in pulling that off will be winning the footwork battle. Belfort needs to keep his lead right foot outside of Jones’ lead left foot. This will allow the challenger to create the proper angle to land his best punch, which is his counter straight left. It will also allow him to slip Jones’ lead strikes without getting himself out of position.

Once he lands a strike of any significance, Belfort should sell out for the win. Jones has never had to deal with a blitzkrieg attack. Nobody knows how he will handle that sort of adversity. Not even Jones himself. The sport has been so easy for him so far in his career that his ability to handle adversity remains the lone question mark hanging over his head.

But Belfort should not be reckless with his attacks. Jones is an amazing counterstriker in his own right. Moreover, Belfort attacking wildly reduces the odds of landing accurately, which, in turn, opens the door for Jones to clinch and throw his foe.

Belfort is a submission master. But he doesn’t want to find himself underneath Jon Jones. Nobody does.

Thus, Belfort needs to pick his spots. Again, that is no big deal because that is how he approaches every fight. Remember, this is the same guy who literally circled with Anderson Silva for nearly three minutes before opting to engage with any form of meaningful attack. He will have no problem remaining patient with Jones.

If Belfort is able to effectively slip and counter Jones’ attacks, it is very likely that he will win the fight inside of two rounds, whether by knockout or submission. I don’t see Belfort winning if the fight goes beyond two rounds. Remember, this is a guy who has 10 UFC wins. All 10 of them occurred within the first two rounds.

Jones, by contrast, can win in any round, including on the judges’ cards.

The champion is an amazing athlete with jaw-dropping talent. He also happens to have an extremely deep gas tank. As a result, he can fight at a fast pace, if he wants, in an effort to tire an opponent who is known for having a light gas tank. The best way to do that is to devolve the action into a grueling physical contest by clinching, pinning Belfort up against the cage, and taking every opportunity to take the fight to the ground.

The risk, of course, is that Belfort is one of the best clinch fighters in the game, and he possesses insane physical strength, particularly when he is fresh. He is a vastly underrated wrestler who could easily turn the table in a clinch and put Jones on his back—a position that remains untested.

With that said, Jones has shown that his MMA-based wrestling skills are about as good as they come. If he wants to put Belfort on his back, and commits to that path, it seems certain that it will happen, absent walking into a knockout punch.

Once on the ground, Belfort is a submission master, but that is largely irrelevant when fighting a guy with Jones’ wrestling base, ground-and-pound game, and submission defense. Jones probably doesn’t have much to fear on the ground, to be quite honest. He knows how to keep himself out of trouble, and it has been a long, long time since Belfort has used his offensive guard to win a fight. Actually, he has never done that in the UFC. Not once. UFC 152 won’t be the first time, either.

Jones can also win the bout by remaining very focused and engaging in a long-range kickboxing bout. Belfort has insane speed, but Jones isn’t far behind. His unimaginable reach advantage possesses the type of problem that fighters simply cannot prepare for, particularly when that is combined with his ultra-creative striking. If he finds his groove, he should be able to punch, kick and elbow Belfort from a distance through the first couple of rounds, when the challenger is the most dangerous, and then turn up the pressure with some infighting in the third, fourth and fifth rounds, if it lasts that long.

Oh, by the way, if anyone thinks that Jones is intimidated to stand and strike with Belfort, they should go back and watch his fights with Quinton Jackson, Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans, each of whom are first priority standup monsters. Jones undressed each of them on the feet. Something tells me that he plans the same fate for Belfort on Saturday night.

There is a reason that Jones is a healthy betting favorite heading into this fight. He may very well be the most talented fighter to ever hold the 205-pound title. He is just starting to enter his physical prime and hasn’t even begun to tap the limits of his skills. Belfort is also returning to a division he abandoned more than five years ago. I have no idea whether he will come in lean and light, which is exactly what I think he should do, or whether he has tried to pack on a bit of additional weight for his return to light heavy.

Yet, I truly believe that the MMA world is making a very real mistake by counting out Belfort before the fight even begins. For Jones’ sake, I hope he isn’t making the same mistake because this is an imminently winnable fight for Belfort. He might not beat Jones eight out of 10 times. But all it takes is once. And that one time just might be Saturday night.

QUICK FACTS:

Jon Jones
•    25 years old
•    6’4, 205 lbs
•    84.5-inch reach
•    16-1 overall
•    7-fight winning streak
•    Lone UFC loss was a DQ for illegal elbow strikes to Matt Hamill in a fight Jones was dominating
•    Reigning UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    3 successful defenses so far
•    4-0 against current or former champions – 3 of 4 wins inside the distance
•    8 of last 9 fights ended inside the distance
•    50.0% of wins by KO/TKO
•    31.25% of wins by submission
•    18.75% of wins by decision
•    Four post-fight bonus awards (Fight of the Night 2x, Submission of the Night and Knockout of the Night)
•    Current layoff is 154 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 188 days

Vitor Belfort
•    21-9 overall
•    35 years old
•    6’0, 205 lbs
•    74-inch reach
•    5-1 in last 6 fights
•    8-2 in last 10
•    All 10 UFC wins inside the distance (8 by KO/TKO and 2 by SUB)
•    66.67% of career wins by KO/TKO
•    14.29% of career wins by SUB
•    19.04% of career wins by decision
•    Hasn’t competed in the light heavyweight division since 2007
•    Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    Former UFC Heavyweight Tournament Champion
•    Knockout of the Night in two of last four fights
•    Current layoff is 252 days
•    Longest layoff of his career is 504 days
 

NO CLOSURE FOR BENDO-EDGAR

Benson Henderson is done dealing with Frankie Edgar—for now, at least. His split decision win gives him back-to-back victories over the former champion. Despite the fact that both bouts were extremely close, with Saturday’s arguably ending in a controversial decision, it seems unlikely that Edgar will receive a third opportunity at Bendo any time soon. That makes perfect sense, from a sporting perspective. But it is hard to suggest that there has been any real closure for the Bendo-Edgar saga.

I’m not suggesting that the judges got it wrong. The fight was close enough where neither man has a legitimate complaint no matter how the judges scored it. Both are probably wondering why they didn’t press a little harder in search of a more conclusive ending, particularly Edgar, who wound up on the short side of the scorecards.  It’s tough for him to complain too vigorously about the decision because he never really left his comfort zone in an attempt to clearly pull ahead of his opponent.

NATE DIAZ IS NEXT

Nate Diaz is a perfect 3-0 since he returned to the lightweight division. He won a post-fight bonus in each of those bouts—once getting the nod for Fight of the Night and twice for Submission of the Night. He will be next up for champion Benson Henderson, according to UFC president Dana White.

I think Bendo-Diaz is a spectacular matchup. Bendo has the clear wrestling and strength advantages. Diaz is the better striker and a far superior submission artist. Sounds like a good matchup for the Stockton native, doesn’t it? Will Nate be the first of the Diaz brothers to win UFC gold? We will find out soon enough.

IT’S TIME FOR EDGAR TO HEAD SOUTH

Frankie Edgar looked a full weight class smaller than his opponent on Saturday night. That wasn’t surprising because he looks smaller than his foe in every fight. But this was after the former champion claimed he had added some much needed muscle in the months leading up to the bout.

I don’t know for certain, but I’m guessing that Edgar still cuts less than 10 pounds for the fight. If I am correct, he is still far too small for the lightweight division. That may read like crazy words to some because Edgar has already climbed to the top of the lightweight mountain, and he did it by defeating one of the greatest fighters in the history of the sport, B.J. Penn. Not once, but twice.

That doesn’t matter to me. It is tough to argue that Edgar’s lack of size didn’t hurt him on Saturday night. I’ll take that one step farther. His lack of size hurts him in every fight. Ten of his 13 UFC bouts have gone the distance. That is far too much time spent in the cage because those miles accumulate over time, resulting in very real wear and tear that can prematurely end the prime of a fighter’s career.  The lack of finishes either suggests that Edgar is a poor finisher or he is just too small to finish his foes. I’ll bet on the latter, not the former.

If Edgar drops to 145, I think he will be one of the bigger, stronger fighters. It will allow him to utilize his wrestling a bit more than he can at lightweight. Smaller opponents will also suffer a bit more from the power of his punches.

Of course, there is no guarantee that he will win the title at featherweight, despite having spent time as the lightweight champion. Why? Some guy named Jose Aldo. Look him up, if you don’t already know.

CERRONE IS ONE BAD DUDE

How many of you thought the fight was over when Melvin Guillard put Donald Cerrone on ice skates early in the first round? I certainly did. I didn’t think there was any way that Cerrone would recover in time to survive what seemed certain to be a savage Guillard assault in search of a knockout.

Well, I was correct. The fight did end moments later. The only issue with my assumption seconds into the fight was that I assumed Guillard would be the one standing with his hand raised. Instead, he was left lying on the canvas-covered floor thanks to a perfectly timed Cerrone counter—one that was probably thrown on pure instinct due to a very cloudy head at the time.

Cerrone is now 6-1 since the UFC acquired the WEC. His lone loss came in lopsided fashion to arch rival Nate Diaz almost a year ago. With Diaz standing in the front of the championship challenger queue, a strong argument can be made that Cerrone deserves to be standing immediately behind him.

Cerrone mentioned after the win over Guillard that he remains interested in fighting fellow 155-pound shining star Anthony Pettis. That could be the perfect title eliminator for the winner of Bendo-Diaz.

SHIELDS GETS THE SHIP IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

Jake Shields was widely considered to be the best fighter in the world who wasn’t under contract with the UFC back in 2010. It was a fair assessment because he was on a five-year, 14-fight winning streak that culminated with the destruction of surefire future Hall of Famer Dan Henderson in a Strikeforce middleweight title bout.

Then, everything changed when Shields arrived in the UFC. He dropped back down to welterweight after nearly 18 months of competing 15 pounds to the north. I don’t think Shields grasped how difficult that would be. Stripping his body of all the added muscle undoubtedly impacted his cardio in an adverse manner. He looked completely exhausted for much of the bout in his UFC debut against Martin Kampmann. Shields barely escaped with a win that night.

He put on a much better showing against Georges St-Pierre in his next bout, but Shields still came up short. It was his first loss in his last 16 fights. He followed that bout with a 53-second knockout loss to Jake Ellenberger, something that most thought was unfathomable just months earlier. It was the first time Shields had been stopped in more than a decade. The former Strikeforce two-division champion certainly gets a complete pass for that outcome because he had just lost his father a few weeks earlier.

Shields scored a solid unanimous decision win against Yoshihiro Akiyama five months later. But he again appeared to tire prematurely compared to his pre-UFC performances. And he certainly did not appear to be as dominant as he had in the past. Thus, the Cesar Gracie team fighter opted to move back to middleweight.

Saturday was his middleweight debut. Although his win over Ed Herman wasn’t pretty, it was just what the doctor ordered. There was no doubt when the bout was over who had won. Herman proved to be an extremely tough opponent. Anyone who has been watching the sport for the last five or six years knew that he would be. Shields prevailing in a grueling, clinch-filled fight suggests to me that he is in the right weight class.

I expect Shields to build upon this effort in his next fight as he re-acclimates to the return of the extra 10-15 pounds of muscle. While he hasn’t yet lived up to the great hype that surrounded him when he entered the UFC, I think he will make a very real run at fulfilling those expectations over the next year.