Author: By Michael DiSanto

STOP ASSUMING JONES-MACHIDA IS A CERTAINTY

Lyoto Machida earned another crack at the light heavyweight crown with his amazing second-round knockout win over Ryan Bader. But it is far from certain that his title fight will come against current champion Jon Jones.

Jones is less than a month away from facing one of the most decorated fighters in the history of the sport. Sure, Dan Henderson will be 42 by fight night. Yes, that is well beyond the expiration date for most mixed martial artists. Hendo, however, is not just another fighter. He is the only man to simultaneously hold titles in two different weight classes for the UFC or PRIDE. He is also 4-0 since his 40th birthday, including wins over Fedor Emelianenko, a man once viewed as the best ever, and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, who remains very much in the 205-pound mix.

Henderson is a very viable threat to dethrone Jones. I’m not saying that will come to fruition. I’m suggesting that it is a very real possibility.

I doubt he will ever admit it, but I’m guessing that Machida would much rather face Henderson for the title. Machida’s style is perfectly suited to topple the all-time great because he is so adept at avoiding strikes and countering unbridled attacks. Jones’ length and speed, by contrast, make it tough for Machida to execute his normal game plan, thus he has to change up his style if he wants to reverse the outcome of his December 2011 submission loss to the champion.

NO TITLE SHOT NEXT, BUT SHOGUN STILL CONTINUES TO IMPRESS

Shogun continued his streak of amazing performances on Saturday night. Throw away his loss to Jones, and it is tough to find fault with Shogun’s efforts since he lost to Forrest Griffin back in his UFC debut in 2007. His last two fights were particularly impressive because he faced and overcame very real adversity in each. Brandon Vera gave Shogun everything he wanted and more on Saturday night. And Shogun gave it all back to him, plus some more. He may not be next up for a title shot, but this guy continues to prove that he is among the very best in the world.

I would be shocked – literally shocked – if Shogun doesn’t secure a title shot with his next win. The question, of course, is who will he face next? The leading candidates seem to be Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Phil Davis and Alexander Gustafsson, each of whom continues to push toward their first opportunity at UFC gold. Another very real possibility is a bout with the loser of next month’s title fight between Jones and Henderson. If Hendo pulls out a win and the UFC decides to give Jones an immediate rematch, then a rubber match with Machida also springs up as a possibility.

VERA PROVES THAT THE “TRUTH” MAY STILL BE IN THERE SOMEWHERE

I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Saturday night was the best Brandon Vera that the world has seen since his win over Frank Mir. I don’t care that he lost. Vera showed tremendous grit and even better skills in his four-round effort.

The knock on this guy has never been about his skills. Vera remains one of the most naturally gifted fighters in the sport. The questions have all revolved around his commitment to training and his mental state during fights. Vera answered both of those questions against Shogun.

Vera was clearly fully prepared for battle. His physique looked tremendous, something that hasn’t always been the case. That suggests both a commitment to training and a proper diet. He pressed forward for most of the fight and held his ground when he came under heavy fire during exchanges. That suggests a level of confidence that we haven’t seen in Vera for years. The only way that confidence rears its head is if he left no stone unturned in training.

Sure, Vera has now lost three of his last five. Nevertheless, I don’t think he has ever been better prepared to maximize his vast potential in the 205-pound division. If Vera uses his loss as a motivational experience and embraces the fact that his commitment to preparation is what yielded such a great performance, then I think Vera will embark on a nice little run of wins starting with his next fight.

IS LAUZON THE BEST FINISHER IN THE GAME?

Joe Lauzon has 22 wins on his professional resume. Each of them occurred inside the distance – 18 by submission and four by knockout.

I must admit. I had no idea that was the case until UFC commentator Mike Goldberg dropped that little nugget of knowledge during the broadcast. That sort of preparation was yet another example of Goldie’s serious dedication to his craft.

I’m sure a statistician out there somewhere will do the research, but I’m guessing that there is nobody in the UFC with 20-plus wins without at least one win by judges’ decision, other than the New Englander.

But let’s not get crazy and take too much from the win. Lauzon is the real deal, but he has a lot more work to do if he wants to be considered a title contender. Nonetheless, he might just be the best finisher in the sport.

Let me know below if I’m wrong.

WELCOME BACK, KID LION

Mike Swick is good people. Not the “I’m a pro athlete, so I’m going to act fake in public” good. He is just a good dude. I first met him right after the filming of the inaugural season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” And he was an ordinary, humble and classy guy – he opened the door to the gym for my then-girlfriend (now wife), and he didn’t know us at the time. He didn’t do it because he felt like he had to. He did it because that is just the kind of guy he is.

With that in mind, Swick’s return to the UFC after a long, long absence with a savage knockout win after a gut-check fight was a very real feel-good story.  I’ll go one step further. It was the perfect way for him to return because it answered a lot of questions about Swick going forward.

There is no doubt that Swick had butterflies and a bit of self-doubt after his two-year absence from competition. Oh, did I mention that he was in the midst of his first career two-fight losing streak of his career, before the sport he loves so much got ripped away from him?

 I’m sure the fact that he was facing DaMarques Johnson didn’t help the jitters. Johnson is a banger of the first order—an ultra-tough guy with a couple of boulders hanging from his shoulders.

Johnson had his moments of success during the fight. Swick admitted afterward that a punch in the first round left him struggling to find clear vision. But he didn’t panic. He didn’t quit. And he definitely didn’t look for an easy way out.

Swick stood his ground and fought back. He relied on his heart and skills, and they didn’t let him down. Swick’s knockout win was the finest of his career, considering all the background noise.

For my money, I think “Kid Lion” should instantly catapult back into the welterweight mix. The title picture is going to be muddied for more than a minute, so there is no need to get silly and start talking about championship implications. Nonetheless, he should definitely be in the cage against a top 10 contender in his next bout as he builds toward what I believe will be his first title fight sometime in 2013.

By the way, Mike “Quick” Swick used to be known as “Kid Lion,” for those who are new to the sport. I say we bring it back, particularly after a return to the UFC like that.

On February 26, 2012, Benson Henderson defeated Frankie Edgar in a spirited affair that earned him a fat bonus check for Fight of the Night honors and, more importantly, a shiny gold trinket also known as the UFC lightweight championship belt.

Nearly six months later, it’s time for Henderson and Edgar to run it back.

Rematches seem to be the order of the day for the 155-pound strap. This is the third consecutive rematch series involving both Edgar and the division title. It all started with his career-defining two-fights with BJ Penn. Edgar then had to deal with the first man to ever defeat him, Gray Maynard, in back-to-back fights. And now, he gets that same opportunity against the only other man to score a win at his expense, the reigning champion Benson Henderson.

The matchup this time around is the exact same as it was back in February. In the days leading up to that bout, I wrote:

Benson Henderson will be the bigger, stronger man when he steps into the cage to challenge Frankie Edgar for the UFC lightweight championship this Saturday night. In fact, he will likely be the bigger man by 10 pounds or more, which is a big difference when comparing lightweights.

That is an extremely relevant point when analyzing the main event of the UFC’s long-awaited return to Japan. It’s not relevant in the sense that it is a unique disadvantage for Edgar to overcome. He faces the same uphill battle in every fight.

It is relevant because Henderson may very well be the first man since Gray Maynard in April 2008 who will come to the cage keenly focused on actually using those physical superiorities to his advantage during the fight. In other words, I firmly believe that Henderson is coming to take the title by putting on a wrestling clinic.

Well, he had better show up with that kind of game plan. Otherwise, he won’t stand much of a chance at winning, absent the ever-present chance at landing a fight-altering strike.

Whoops.

Henderson beat Edgar doing precisely what I suggested he should avoid – standing and striking with him. I grossly underestimated his ability to dominate the fight with kicks. His constant attack with that strike, including the best upkick of 2012 to date, led him to victory.

I’m guessing that Henderson will switch up his game plan this time, because there is no doubt that Edgar will be focused on defending and countering Bendo’s kicks. It will undoubtedly involve more catch and takedowns, but this time, I’m guessing that Edgar will be more cautious when Bendo is on his back, careful not to catch another upkick to the grill. I firmly believe that single strike is what ultimately proved to be the difference maker for the new champion.

Thus, Bendo will be better off changing up his attack this time to keeping the division’s former ruler guessing because I still maintain that, if that upkick had not occurred, the outcome might have been different. For me, that begins and ends with takedowns. Yes, I know. I’m going right back to where I was back in February. Maybe I’m hard headed. But I firmly believe that takedowns are the key to Bendo defending his title.

Not only do I believe that to be the key to victory, I think Bendo can stop Edgar if he repeatedly puts him on his back. I know that reads a bit like crazy writing. After all, Bendo hasn’t stopped an opponent in his UFC career. I don’t care. I think takedowns are the key, if he wants to stop Edgar for two reasons—conditioning and tactics.

Edgar is as close to the Energizer Bunny as we have in the lightweight division. Well, him and Clay Guida. He is a master at creating angles for his punches. Bendo needs to slow him down, if he wants to have a lot of success on the feet. The upkick that rearranged his face served to accomplish that in the first fight. I think pounding on him from the top position and making the ex-champion use up his reserves to work back to the feet are the answers this time around. That is the benefit to being the bigger, stronger fighter, and Bendo is certainly that.

I think the worst part of Edgar’s offensive game is his guard. He isn’t going to submit Bendo from his back. Not a chance. That means he needs to look for sweeps and escapes. If Edgar is constantly posting and turning to work back to his feet, it will open the door for the champion to snake around to his back and look for a choke or even to sneak in a standing guillotine. Chokes are Bendo’s best technique when looking for a submission.

I’ve spent a lot of space writing about how Bendo can win the fight. I won’t spend the same amount of space on Edgar. Why? Not much has changed since the first time around. He needs to move a bit more. But throwing lots of hands, catching kicks and scoring takedowns remain his path to glory.

I firmly believe that Edgar is the better standup fighter. He is crisper, quicker and more varied in his attacks. He gave BJ Penn a two-fight lesson on striking, which is an amazing accomplishment. Sure, Bendo’s kicks present a unique problem for Edgar compared to his prior opponents. But he will be more prepared to deal with them this time around.

He also needs to chill out with the whole diving in for ground and pound, if Bendo is on his back. He should slide into position, rather than diving in. That reduces the odds of another heel to the grill.

On the ground, Edgar has to maintain proper positioning to avoid getting swept and then score points with his fists and elbows. I don’t mind him getting a bit overaggressive, because I don’t see many sweeps happening, and I definitely don’t think that Edgar needs to be overly concerned about Bendo working back to his feet because that is where Edgar should have his biggest advantage—should being the operative word.

At the end of the day, I think this fight will look a lot like their first bout. I think it will be extremely competitive, possibly leading to a disputed or controversial decision. Who is going to win? Yesterday, I thought Bendo would take it. Today, I lean toward Edgar. Tomorrow, who knows? All I know is that these two are so evenly matched in terms of skill level and their styles mesh so well together that I think they could fight 100 times and the outcome would be razor-thin each time. In other words, I expect one heck of a fight on Saturday night.

QUICK FACTS:

Benson Henderson
• 28 years old
• 16-2 overall
• First UFC title defense
• 9-1 in last 10 fights
• 4-1 in last 5
• 5 consecutive fights have gone the distance (4-1 in those fights)
• 12.5% of wins by KO/TKO
• 50.0% of wins by submission
• 37.5%of wins by judges’ decision
• Has never been knocked out as a professional
• UFC Fight of the Night twice
• Current layoff is 166 days
• Longest layoff of career is 236 days

Frankie Edgar
• 30 years old
• 14-2-1 overall
• 3-1-1 in UFC title fights
• 8-1-1 in last 10 fights
• 3-1-1 in last 5
• Former UFC Lightweight Champion (3 successful defenses)
• 21.4% of wins by KO/TKO
• 21.4% of wins by submission
• 57.2% of wins by judges’ decision
• 81.8% of UFC fights lasted the distance (6-2-1 in those fights)
• Both professional losses by judges’ decision
• Five-time Fight of the Night winner
• Knockout of the Night winner once
• Current layoff is 166 days
• Longest layoff of career is 308 days

Rewind the clock to November 18, 2006.

I remember it like it was yesterday. I was in Sacramento, California, which was just a short drive from my then home in San Francisco, to help cover UFC 65 for UFC.com. My job, as always, was to write an op-ed piece in reaction to what went down.

I was sitting at lunch with my editor and good friend, Thomas Gerbasi, enjoying one of Sac-Town’s football-sized burritos, when our conversation turned to the night’s matchups. Gerbasi and I love to wager cheeseburgers on our ability to predict the outcome of the fights. I think I’m down enough cheeseburgers to solve world hunger. I digress.

When the conversation arrived at the second televised bout of the night, we quickly moved from breaking down the matchup to pontificating about the upside potential of Brandon Vera. He was facing former champion Frank Mir in what was definitely the biggest fight of his career. It was a fight that would definitely demonstrate whether the hoopla and hype surrounding this guy was just that, or if he really was “The Truth,” as he likes to call himself.

Sixty-nine seconds into the fight, the world learned the answer to that question, as Vera obliterated a guy who has gone on to become one of the most accomplished heavyweights of our era. Vera was on top of the world after UFC 65. He was a heavyweight champion in wait, and a guy who many believed could actually hold both the light heavyweight and heavyweight crowns simultaneously.

Crazy talk, I know. But Vera had that sort of aura surrounding him at the time. He was every bit as exciting of a prospect as current superstar Jon Jones was before the current light heavy king won the title.

And then it all came crashing down.

Vera lost three of his next four, and six of his next nine, if one counts the savage beating he took from Thiago Silva in their no contest as a loss – I do, by the way. I can’t think of a more spectacular fall from grace by someone with that much potential. I’m not sure what happened. I’m not even sure if Vera knows what happened. But it happened.

Humbled and on the verge of needing a career change, Vera figured out how to right the ship against Eliot Marshall in a yeoman’s like effort last October. Now, he is back in the spotlight with the opportunity to erase all the heartache he has experienced over the last nearly five years.

On Saturday night, Vera will fight on national broadcast television in what will certainly be the biggest stage of his career. He will face former UFC and PRIDE champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in the main event of the fourth live broadcast by FOX.

Make no mistake about it. This is supposed to be a feature bout for Rua. After all, he is squarely in the middle of the 205-pound title picture. A spectacular win over Vera may very well put him next in line for the winner of September’s title fight between Jones and Dan Henderson. But this is far more significant for Vera. This is a make-it-or-break-it moment for him. A solid performance keeps him relevant. A win skyrockets him into title contention. And a bad loss probably has him doing a bit of career evaluation.

How is that for pressure?

Let me add to it. Shogun is one of the most fearsome standup fighters that the 205-pound division has ever seen, and Vera prefers to compete on the feet. But the two are stylistically so very different. Let’s break that down a bit.

Shogun is a maestro at what most consider to be fistic chaos. That is a trademark of many current and former Chute Boxe Academy fighters. That is a gym that focuses on exceling when the action devolves into an all-out brawl, rather than a highly technical sporting event. And Shogun may be its best graduate.

The Brazilian wants to fight Vera. He doesn’t want to play the stick and move game, though he is great at that, too, as he proved in his two fights with Lyoto Machida. But he prefers pressure. He prefers to become a berserker inside the cage. And Vera is going to have to deal with that.

Vera, on the other hand, is a tactician’s tactician. He is a master of the outside leg kick. He has a great right hand, and excellent left hook, and a solid understanding of angles and movement. He is an amazingly technical kickboxer. But he hasn’t always shown the greatest degree of comfort in the face of elite skills combined with tremendous pressure.

If Shogun can devolve the action into a fight in a phone booth, both men have the skills and power to win by knockout. Yet, Shogun probably wins that type of fight more often than not. If Vera can keep the action to more of a stick-and-move kickboxing bout, he will do very well.

Forget takedowns. Vera is the far better wrestler. He won’t be taken down by Shogun, unless he is asleep at the wheel, and he should be able to get the fight to the ground, if he really wants to. Shogun is the better ground fighter from all positions. The difference is glaringly apparent when comparing their guards, but Shogun has the edge in all positions.

Thus, it is likely that Vera won’t seek to take the fight to the ground, and Shogun probably can’t get it there, even if he wants to. So, this fight will be determined on the feet.

Normally, I would lean heavily toward Shogun in a matchup like this one. He is the more accomplished fighter. He has performed better over the last several years. And he has more ways to win.

But Vera is no stranger to rising to the occasion when facing a world-class fighter. He destroyed Mir, as mentioned. And many thought he got robbed when the judges awarded Hall of Famer Randy Couture a unanimous decision victory in their 2009 bout.

Call me stubborn, but I can’t let go of Vera’s vast potential. Five-year struggles notwithstanding, this guy has as much potential on paper as anyone in the game. I keep thinking the next fight will be the one where everything clicks for him. Maybe that will happen on Saturday night. Maybe not. But I’m not betting against him.

QUICK FACTS

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
•    30 years old
•    20-6 as a professional
•    2-3 in last 5
•    6-4 in last 10
•    85% of wins by KO/TKO
•    10% of wins by decision
•    5% of wins by submission
•    Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    Former PRIDE Middleweight (205 lb) Grand Prix Champion
•    Knockout of the Night twice
•    Fight of the Night twice
•    Current layoff is 259 days
•    Longest layoff of UFC/PRIDE career is 483 days

Brandon Vera
•    34 years old
•    12-5-1NC as a professional
•    2-2, 1NC in last 5
•    5-4, 1 NC in last 10
•    1-3 against current or former champions
•    58.3% of wins by KO/TKO
•    8.3% of wins by submission
•    33.3% of wins by decision
•    Current layoff is 249 days
•    Longest layoff of UFC career is 336 days

DOES THE BARAO ERA START NOW?

Renan Barao entered his first UFC title shot riding a title wave of hype. He was in the midst of the longest current unbeaten streak in the sport. UFC commentator extraordinaire Joe Rogan dubbed him the best fighter in the world without a title. And he is a training partner of featherweight kingpin and pound-for-pound candidate Jose Aldo, who just so happens to own a shutout win over Barao’s interim championship opponent at UFC 149, Urijah Faber.

It wasn’t a big shock, therefore, that the Brazilian fighter entered Saturday’s bout as the betting favorite.

That is a ton of pressure for a first-time title challenger. Some quietly felt that it would be too much for the 25-year old contender to handle. Barao obviously forgot to read the memo because he not only beat Faber, he did it in dominant fashion.

His performance at UFC 149 suggests that this guy’s ceiling is every bit as high as his rabid supporters suggested heading into the fight. Now is it up to the new interim champion to reach that ceiling, which means remaining supremely focused on improving his weaknesses (everyone has them) and further sharpening his strengths through the same gym rat dedication he has shown so far in his career. It means staying off the Internet, to a degree, to avoid buying into his own hype. It means continuing to train with Aldo, who is the one person in his camp who can continue to push him to greater and greater heights.

Let’s face it, Barao is the interim bantamweight champ, but we are still in the midst of the Dominick Cruz era. That remains true until someone defeats the true champion or he walks away from the sport. The only reason he wasn’t in the cage against Faber on Saturday was a blown ACL.

It is likely that Cruz will be out for another 10 months or so, as he continues to heal from his surgery and then rehabilitate himself to full strength. That is plenty of time for Barao to get in a couple of title defenses. I think he should do just that. Remaining active is the key to continued growth as a young fighter, and Barao is certainly still young, despite his wealth of experience. Plus, that is a great way to build the anticipation for the Cruz matchup, assuming he can win those couple of defenses.

Was UFC 149 the beginning of the Renan Barao era? I’m not sure, but I do know one thing. Dominick Cruz is champing at the bit to find out.

WHERE DOES FABER GO FROM HERE?

With the loss to Barao, Faber has now lost his last five UFC / WEC championship bouts. One would be hard pressed to find another fighter in a Zuffa-owned company who has lost five consecutive title bouts. What that says to me is that Faber remains among the best in the world, because he certainly continues to earn championship opportunities, but he may no longer be the best in any particular weight class.

I’m sure the blogs and forums will be full of opinions about Faber hanging up the gloves. After all, losing five consecutive title fights is truly unprecedented. If he is no longer championship caliber, then there is no reason to continue fighting, right?

My reaction? Stop it, guys.

It is preposterous to think that fighters only compete for championships. That may be true for a select few who are financially secure for life, so the only reason to risk personal safety is the glory of being the best.  Everyone else fights to pay the bills. Sure, they have championship aspirations – many do, at least. But these guys also have mortgages or rent, car payments, retirement accounts to fund, college funds and the like to deal with.

Competing in the UFC is a profession, no different than being a doctor, lawyer, salesman or professional athlete in any other sport. Do you wake up in the morning and decide to change careers just because you may never become the CEO of your company? That is ludicrous. Should the tenth man on the Minnesota Timberwolves hang up the hoop shoes because he will neither win an NBA championship or become the league’s MVP anytime soon, if ever? No.

Faber should continue fighting for as long as it makes financial sense for him to do so, he still enjoys it and there aren’t any abnormal health risks. Guess what? I’ll bet he earns another title bout before it is all said and done, too. At least one more, possibly winning the 135-pound belt. A third fight with Cruz is still a very marketable fight, if Cruz gets past Barao (assuming nobody else gets to the interim champ first) and Faber scores another win or two. Why? Because the “California Kid” is just that good, and he has more than earned it.

LOMBARD SHOULD DROP TO WELTERWEIGHT

Hector Lombard entered the UFC with just about as much hype as Barao had heading into his first title fight. The former Cuban Olympian was riding an unbelievably impressive 25-fight winning streak (which, interestingly enough, is longer than Barao’s winning streak, though not longer than the Brazilian’s unbeaten streak – you figure it out).

Then, he laid an egg.

OK, to be fair, he didn’t really lay an egg. Tim Boetsch is far from a middleweight gatekeeper. Boetsch beat him, just as much as Lombard failed to execute (which, again, probably had a lot to do with Boetsch).

We can pontificate all day on whether debut jitters played a role. It is an interesting question because Lombard was far from the Mike Tyson-like attack-at-all-cost offensive fighter who terrorized the smaller promotions before coming to the UFC. Was he injured? Was it just a bad night? Or is Boetsch simply the better fighter?

I’ll let you guys take on that debate in the comment section below and elsewhere in Internet land. I’d rather bandy about a different question – should Lombard drop to welterweight?

I’m sure I’m not the only one who noticed that Lombard looked a full weight class smaller than Boetsch. “The Barbarian” is a big middleweight, but certainly not the biggest in the division. I had a feeling that would be the case when I noticed at the weigh-ins that Lombard insisted on putting his shoes back on before squaring off with his opponent. The size differential was certainly not apparent once he had the aid of another inch from his shoes. But it was glaringly apparent when the two squared off inside the cage.

At 5’9, Lombard is one of the shortest middleweights in the promotion. In fact, he would be a relatively short welterweight. I look to former UFC star Phil Baroni as a comparison. Baroni was a massively muscled middleweight with a welterweight’s frame (or maybe even lightweight, if we’re talking solely on height and reach). That is Lombard in a nutshell.

If Lombard can cut to 170 pounds without adversely impacting his strength and explosiveness, he could be an absolute savage in the welterweight division. If I were a betting man, and I just so happen to be one, I’d bet that he could easily make the welterweight limit with just a few tweaks to his training camp diet. He looked extremely thick with full, round muscles and a full face at the weigh-ins. Contrast that to Faber, who looked like he had squeezed every safe ounce of water out of his system for the weigh-ins before adding back nearly 18 pounds in the 30 hours leading up to fight time. Lombard can do the same thing.

At welterweight, Lombard won’t have to deal with the same size, reach and strength issues that he faced against Boetsch, though the last of those certainly wasn’t an issue at all. With this guy’s insane core strength, sick judo skills, jiu-jitsu black belt, and show stopping power in his punches, George St-Pierre probably hopes the big fella stays in the middleweight division. By contrast, I think he should drop to welterweight.

What do you think?

RIDDLE DEMONSTRATES THE BEAUTY OF JIU-JITSU

I’ll keep this one short and to the point. Matthew Riddle’s submission win over Chris Clements was my favorite moment of UFC 149—and I’m a guy who prefers striking to submissions.

The way he used Clements’ missed spinning backfist to step in and secure an arm-triangle was about as beautiful of an ending to a UFC fight that I can remember. He locked himself into position while the pair was still battling on the feet, used the leverage for a quick leg trip, and then squeezed his way to a victory.

That sequence demonstrates the beauty of jiu-jitsu, in my opinion. Sure, Ryan Jimmo’s seven-second knockout win over Anthony Perosh was insanely impressive. But Riddle’s submission win (and again, I’m a converted boxing guy) is the sequence that I replayed on my DVR 25 times today. It was poetry in motion. A Picasso moment inside the cage. And the embodiment of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, all rolled into one.

Urijah Faber isn’t the UFC Bantamweight Champion. Yet, it is undeniable that the “California Kid” is the most famous 135-pound mixed martial artist in America—period.

The Sacramento product with the million-dollar smile and elite skills was the face of the WEC for the three years leading up to the decision by Zuffa to fold the fledgling promotion into the UFC. He has probably signed thousands of autographs during and after his reign as the WEC featherweight champ. His five successful defenses remains a WEC record.

Faber has used his star power to successfully market himself like no other bantamweight in domestic MMA history. The net result is a burgeoning business empire in his home city and, of course, regular headliner status on fight cards, which means big checks for strapping on the gloves and fighting.

Renan Barao doesn’t have any of that. He isn’t famous. Not in the US, at least. He hasn’t parlayed his athletic career into a diverse stream of business revenue. In fact, I’ll bet that most casual UFC fans don’t even recognize his name.

I’m sure Barao doesn’t care much. Why? His current 31-fight unbeaten streak is one of the longest in the history of the sport, and definitely the longest active unbeaten streak among the UFC’s current roster of fighters. That makes him the hottest fighter in the UFC, if not the planet.

I’m sure that causes Faber more concern than the former champion’s star power concerns Barao.

The two will face off in Saturday night’s main event for the interim UFC Bantamweight Championship. It’s a matchup that came about when reigning champion Dominick Cruz suffered a severe knee injury while training to defend his title for a second time against Faber.

Cruz will face the winner in his next bout, assuming he heals and returns to action in a reasonable time period.

Most will probably find this shocking, particularly since Barao is a late replacement opponent for Faber, but the Brazilian is a healthy favorite according to most online oddsmakers. In other words, UFC President Dana White didn’t give the hugely popular Faber a free pass to the title. He arguably handed him the best fighter in the world who doesn’t currently hold a UFC title.

Thanks, Boss. I’m sure those were Faber’s first thoughts, when he learned of his new opponent.

Make no mistake about it, however. Faber is a true champion. This guy isn’t afraid to fight anyone, including Barao. He has unbreakable confidence in his own abilities, and he surrounds himself with an amazing team of trainers and training partners to make sure that he is fully prepared for whomever he faces in combat.

Faber will probably approach this fight a little differently than in recent bouts. He hasn’t seemed as committed to his wrestling during his UFC stint compared to his days in the WEC. I think that is a big key to victory for him against Barao.

Faber, as most know, was an extremely successful collegiate wrestler at the University of California at Davis. He has tremendous explosion with his single- and double-leg takedowns. And once he gets a fight to the floor, Faber knows how to control an opponent while pounding away with fists and elbows.

Looking for a takedown may seem counterintuitive against an opponent with elite submission skills like Barao. After all, the Brazilian is probably at his highest comfort level when fighting on the ground. Nonetheless, Faber has amazing submission defense. He has faced plenty of ground wizards in his career and none have been successful in submitting him. Not once in 32 professional fights.

There are two reasons for that. First, he is a skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in his own right. He recognizes moves as they are coming and has a deep understanding on how to defend them. Second, and more important, Faber rarely gets put on his back. Plus, when he is in the top position, he is so active and has such great ground control that foes don’t have much of an opportunity to truly commit to submission attempts because they are so busy defending strikes, position and submissions.

Faber wants to do just that with Barao. I know Barao is a savage on the ground. But I firmly believe that Faber can keep him occupied and in defense mode without any great risk of getting swept or submitted from his back.

On the feet, Faber needs to be much more aggressive than he typically is. He needs to take the fight to Barao, who is a natural bully. That means pressing forward behind the jab and crisp one-two combinations. The key is to get Barao moving backward.

Barao may be the hottest fighter on the planet, but he didn’t necessarily look like a world beater when Scott Jorgensen pressed him on the feet in their last fight. Barao likes space. He likes to use his length. But he also likes to slug away in wild exchanges.

Faber should be intelligently aggressive. Press forward, exchange and then get out. He doesn’t want this to devolve into a slugfest with Barao. Faber is too talented on the feet to put himself at risk like that. Plus, Barao is a physical beast, so a slugfest opens the door for a spectacular knockout from one of his wild strikes.

If Faber avoids unnecessary exchanges and darts in and out with combinations, he should be able to pick apart Barao on the feet. Mix that in with a takedown or two, which will make Barao a bit more hesitant with his standup, and this becomes a very winnable fight for the ex-champion.

Flipping the switch, this is an immensely winnable fight for Barao, as well. Let’s start with the obvious. He is nearly eight years younger than Faber. It seems like 35 is the new 25 in the UFC, with so many elite competitors continuing into their late 30s. But the 33-year old Faber competes in the lighter weight classes, and the first thing to go with age is explosiveness. If Faber loses any of his quickness, then he will be susceptible when facing the division’s elite. The “California Kid” hasn’t shown any slippage in that area yet, but it is going to happen sooner or later. Barao hopes it happens on Saturday night.

Barao is also fresher than Faber. Despite having one more professional fight during his career than his foe, Barao has never been knocked out. Faber has been stopped twice. That may not seem like a big difference, but it is. Barao doesn’t have a ton of mileage on his engine. Faber is starting to accumulate it.

Barao also has better momentum. This guy hasn’t lost a fight since April 14, 2005. Thirty-one fights later, he is still going strong. Faber, by contrast, has lost four of his last 10. I personally disagree with one of those losses, but that is beside the point. There is something to be said for the intangible edge created by crazy long winning streaks. That intangible lies firmly with Barao.

On the feet, Barao isn’t nearly as technical as Faber. But he is no light lunch, either. What he brings to the dance is a long, sharp jab and a sick variety of vicious kicks. The kicks are a major key to victory for him.

Barao is a training partner of UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo. That is important to note because Aldo faced and dominated Faber back in 2010. He did it principally through leg kicks. Aldo used that strike to completely incapacitate the then-champion. A fighter’s legs are the key to just about everything in fighting. Striking starts with the legs. Takedowns are highly dependent on legs. Movement is obviously dictated by healthy legs. And on and on.

Aldo brutalized Faber’s legs to the point where he was scoring knockdowns with leg kicks. Faber was left virtually defenseless while he suffered through a five-round bludgeoning.

Barao should do the exact same thing, with a twist. Rather than just hammer away at Faber’s legs, Barao should mix in spinning back kicks, high kicks and front kicks. This guy has tremendous speed with his kicks. And his ground game is so good that he probably won’t fear being taken down, despite that being one of my keys to Faber winning. His lack of fear of the takedown, mixed with brutalizing Faber’s legs, will actually make his kicks that much more effective, which, in turn, makes it that much tougher for Faber to get him to the ground.

At the end of the day, I think this fight is more even than most believe. I do think that Barao should be viewed as the favorite, but only by the slightest of margins. If Faber executes a great game plan without many material mistakes, he can certainly win the fight. Otherwise, Barao will likely be the one leaving Canada with interim gold draped over his shoulder.

QUICK FACTS:

Urijah Faber
•    33 years old
•    5’6, 135 pounds
•    69-inch reach
•    26-5 overall
•    3-2 in last 5
•    6-4 in last 10
•    6-4 in 10 UFC/WEC championship fights (lost last 3)
•    53.8% of wins by submission
•    26.9% of wins by KO/TKO
•    15.4% of wins by decision
•    3.9% of wins by DQ
•    Has never been submitted
•    40% of losses by KO/TKO
•    60% of losses by decision
•    Former WEC Featherweight Champion (5 successful defenses)
•    Zuffa Submission of the Night award four times
•    Zuffa Fight of the Night three times
•    Current layoff of 245 days is the longest of his career

Renan Barao
•    25 years old
•    5’6, 135 pounds
•    70-inch reach
•    30-1, 1 NC overall
•    Hasn’t lost since professional debut
•    60% of UFC/WEC wins by submission
•    40% of UFC/WEC wins by decision
•    No UFC/WEC wins by KO/TKO
•    Only career loss by decision
•    First major championship fight
•    UFC Fight of the Night once
•    Current layoff is 168 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 198 days

 
 

The UFC returns to FUEL TV on Wednesday night with another fun fight card headlined by Mark Munoz versus Chris Weidman in a bout that will have far-reaching implications in the middleweight division.

Munoz is a middleweight mainstay whose name has been tossed around among the list of title contenders for nearly two years. His last wins came against marquee opponents in Demian Maia and Chris Leben, with the latter coming by TKO. Munoz will enter the Octagon on Wednesday night hoping to establish that he is, indeed, the number one contender to Anderson Silva’s middleweight crown. An impressive victory could be just what the doctor ordered to secure his first UFC title fight.

Weidman, on the other hand, is still a relative newcomer to the UFC, with less than half of the Octagon appearances as his foe. He isn’t on anyone’s short list of title contenders, but he is on everyone’s list of top middleweight prospects. Weidman’s most recent win, a unanimous decision over Maia, proved that this guy is more than just hype. A win over Munoz likely won’t be enough to secure a title shot, but it will definitely establish him as middleweight mainstay standing on the verge of title contention.

In other words, both men have a lot on the line on Wednesday night.  What is going to happen once the action gets underway?  My guess is a standup war.

Both Munoz and Weidman have deep amateur wrestling roots. Munoz was a two-time All-American and 2001 National Champion at Oklahoma State. Weidman was a two-time All-American at Hofstra and placed third in the national tournament during his senior year. When two highly accomplished wrestlers face off inside the Octagon, it is typical for their wrestling to cancel out, which means slugging it out for the duration of the fight.

I’m quite sure that neither man is has much trepidation over a standup-focused affair. Munoz has shown a tremendous propensity for banging it out with opponents. He carries show-stopping power in his right hand, though he wings both left and right hands with seriously bad intentions.

Munoz typically uses his standup as a means to a takedown so that he can unload his equally brutal ground-and-pound. But as he learned in his bout with Yushin Okami, takedowns against a strong wrestler aren’t guaranteed, even for a guy with Munoz’s wrestling chops. Thus, he has spent countless hours since that fight focusing on his standup so that he has other avenues to victory, aside from putting an opponent on his back.

Munoz showed his growth as a fighter when he fought Aaron Simpson and CB Dollaway, who are two of the better wrestlers in the division. Munoz displayed a varied game plan, without an exclusive focus on takedowns. He won both bouts. It is likely that he will approach Weidman the same way.

Weidman has shown a ton of confidence and comfort in his standup game. That makes a lot of sense, since he is trained by one of the best standup coaches in the game in Ray Longo. Weidman’s standup, though, is very different from Munoz’s.

The New Yorker isn’t a slugger, like Munoz. He is much more of a tactician, fighting behind the jab and changing angles to both open throwing lanes and present a difficult target for return fire.

That is a great way to approach a guy like Munoz, who will regularly find himself off balance because he throws nearly every strike with such commitment and power. Weidman should try to take advantage of that by keeping his long jab in Munoz’s face for most of the fight. His five-inch reach advantage will be a significant factor in the fight, if Weidman remains committed to the jab.

The hot-shot prospect should be careful not to circle out too often to his left after he jabs. Munoz’s best weapon, as mentioned, is his right hand. Weidman should circle away from that weapon as often as possible.

If he starts to land the jab with regularity, Munoz will likely get impatient and throw with more and more aggressiveness, which will open the door for a takedown. Munoz, like most wrestlers who haven’t adopted an addict-like commitment to mastering the guard, doesn’t like fighting from his back. I don’t think it is shocking to state that his guard is probably his weakest offensive position. If Weidman can put him there, he will score points without much risk in getting submitted during his ground attack.

Munoz will need to counter Weidman’s length and movement advantages by using controlled bombs to close the distance. He needs to get into Weidman’s chest and make this a slugfest, not a technical kickboxing bout, if he is going to win his fifth consecutive fight.

He can make it a slugfest by cutting off the cage with diagonal forward movement, rather than chasing his foe. Once Weidman is anywhere near the cage, Munoz should explode in for a double-leg. He probably won’t be successful scoring a takedown in that scenario, particularly since the cage is a fighter’s friend when defending doubles. But it will allow Munoz to move from the double to the clinch, which is a big key for him winning the fight.

On the inside, Munoz is probably the physically stronger man. I don’t know that for certain, but it seems likely after watching the two compete in separate bouts. Plus, Munoz has great technique in the clinch, particularly when it comes to firing elbows, dirty boxing and transitioning to throws or a high crotch takedown.

Just like with Munoz, Weidman’s weakest offensive position is undoubtedly his guard. I know he is a purple belt in jiu-jitsu under Matt Serra, who certainly doesn’t progress students through the ranks haphazardly. But I guarantee that Weidman is more comfortable facing a guy with Munoz’s vicious ground and pound from the top position or on the feet. I’m not suggesting that Weidman doesn’t have the submission skills to pull off a stunning victory from his back. I’m arguing that should be a backup plan, if he doesn’t find success on the feet or otherwise can’t work to his feet following a takedown.

At the end of the day, I think this fight is much more evenly matched than most are suggesting. Munoz is the rightful favorite, but only by a slim margin. It would not surprise me in the least to see Weidman pull off an upset victory. In fact, I might even be leaning that way in my own mind.

Whatever happens, the winner of this bout will be well positioned to make a move in the division in the fall. For Munoz, that may mean a title shot. For Weidman, it likely means another marquee opponent on a significant fight card.

QUICK FACTS:

Mark Munoz
•    34 years old
•    6’0, 185 lbs
•    71-inch reach
•    12-2 professional record
•    4-1 in last 5 fights (currently on a four fight winning streak)
•    8-2 in last 10 fights
•    50.0% of wins by KO/TKO
•    41.7% of wins by submission
•    8.3% of wins by decision
•    1-1 in fights that have lasted the distance
•    Has never been submitted
•    Fight of the Night (TKO2 over Kendall Grove)

Chris Weidman
•    28 years old
•    6’2, 185 lbs
•    76-inch reach
•    8-0 professional record
•    25% of wins by KO/TKO
•    37.5% of wins by submission
•    37.5% of wins by decision
•    Submission of the Night (SUB1 by standing guillotine over Jesse Bongfeldt)