UFC 190, headlined by Ronda Rousey’s 34-second title defense against Bethe Correia, became perhaps the most surprising pay-per-view hit in U.S. company history.Current estimates have the show doing a little more than 900,000 buys on pay-per-…
UFC 190, headlined by Ronda Rousey’s 34-second title defense against Bethe Correia, became perhaps the most surprising pay-per-view hit in U.S. company history.
Current estimates have the show doing a little more than 900,000 buys on pay-per-view, the largest number for a UFC show since UFC 168, on Dec. 28, 2013, the show headlined by the second Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva fight and the second Rousey vs. Miesha Tate fight.
It would give the company three shows so far this year that have topped 800,000 buys. The Dec. 12 show, with two title matches, Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor for the featherweight title, and Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold for the middleweight title, barring a key injury, would figure to top that number as well.
The Jan. 3 Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier light heavyweight title fight was expected and did big numbers, and likely would have done bigger had the show not gone against the NFL playoffs. The July 11 McGregor vs. Chad Mendes fight was the subject of the biggest marketing campaign UFC had ever done for a fight, although was probably hurt somewhat by the late Aldo injury.
But the Rousey fight’s success at that level was hardly expected. While Correia did her part to hype the fight, and there were a number of storylines in place, UFC 190 had little in the way of what would be considered strong undercard support. The show was also held in Rio de Janeiro, and in the past, shows outside North America have not done big numbers on pay-per-view. When Anderson Silva was considered UFC’s top fighter, he twice headlined shows from Rio de Janeiro, and both did less than 350,000 buys.
In addition, it came only three weeks after a far more heavily promoted show that was held in Las Vegas. Where that wasn’t a negative factor, as it would have figured to be, is that McGregor and Rousey each draw from unique audiences. In addition, no event Rousey headlined without a second title match on the bill had ever come close to this level.
Having two big shows so close didn’t cause that much of the audience to pick and choose, the way UFC 187 got hammered coming a few weeks after the Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao fight.
There was a grudge aspect of Correia scoring wins over Jessamyn Duke and Shayna Baszler, two of Rousey’s friends, and the storyline of Rousey going to Brazil to face the Brazilian fighter. In this case, the fight being in Brazil actually became a positive because it was part of the story.
Still, the key is that Rousey may have become the company’s biggest drawing attraction to date. Fighters like Brock Lesnar, Georges St-Pierre and Chuck Liddell, the previous biggest draws, all needed top level opponents as well as good stories to hit numbers like that. It may also be that while the MMA crowd was dismissive of Correia’s chances and her lack of top-10 wins, the crowd Rousey drew from didn’t see past it being a grudge match with the easy to digest storyline and it not figuring to be that competitive didn’t matter.
How much the grudge match aspect played into this will become evident on Jan. 2, when Rousey (12-0) faces Holly Holm (9-0) in Las Vegas, as there is no real story to the fight past Rousey facing a former world champion boxer.
Another key to all four of the company’s biggest modern pay-per-view draws is bringing in a unique fan base. Lesnar brought in the pro wrestling audience. St-Pierre was a mainstream Canadian sports superstar. Liddell was the company’s superstar fighter when it first appeared on national television. With Rousey, she brings in a female fan base as well as a casual fan audience that doesn’t even follow the sport on a regular basis.
The UFC does not release its pay-per-view numbers and estimates are from industry sources.
Campbell McLaren, who was one of the key players in the introduction of MMA, long before it was ever called MMA, to the North American market, has announced that his Combate Americas reality show from last year will turn into a monthly live …
Campbell McLaren, who was one of the key players in the introduction of MMA, long before it was ever called MMA, to the North American market, has announced that his Combate Americas reality show from last year will turn into a monthly live event promotion on NBC Universo, a Spanish language cable station.
Shows will air on Thursday at 11 p.m. Eastern and 8 p.m. Pacific time, with the first show on Sept. 17, in an outdoor venue from The D Casino in Las Vegas. The debut show main event will be Ramiro Hernandez (17-7) taking on Max Ceniceros (7-2) in a featherweight bout.
Currently, the promotion is looking for an English language broadcasting platform. NBC Universo is in just under 42 million U.S. homes, roughly the same as AXS (43 million), and more than HBO (36.5 million) or Showtime (28.7 million). Prelims will air in Spanish on Yaveo, DirecTV’s over-the-top service, which will be the first live sports event the service will do.
“We’ve done a great first season (of the reality show), and one event in Miami,” said McLaren, who ran the UFC for Semaphore Entertainment Group, a pay-per-view company in the ’90s that was looking for different programming, and greenlit and ran the first UFC event in 1993. McLaren ran the UFC during its first few years, and helped create first generation stars like Royce Gracie, Ken Shamrock, Tank Abbott and Dan Severn.
The reality show, which aired on the station that was formerly known as mun2, was the first fight-themed show to capture a major television award. The show was honored for Best Variety or Reality Series at the 2014 Imagen Awards.
McLaren said Combate Americas will be completely different from every other major MMA group, because it will focus on Hispanic fighters and aim directly at the Hispanic demographic. He’s looking for fast-paced action fights, and using fighters who have never appeared on the major stage before.
Hernandez fought twice previously in UFC. There will also be two fighters off the reality show on the Sept. 17 event, J.C. Llamas (5-0) and Ricky Ricky Palacios (3-1). Llamas who placed second in the reality show, faces Ozzie Alvarez (6-2) in a welterweight fight. Palacios faces Benji Gomez (4-4) in a bantamweight fight.
They will also introduce former Invicta fighter Nicdali Rivera-Calanoc (8-8) in a women’s strawweight fight against Katy Collins (2-1).
“I like World Series of Fighting, but in a way, World Series of Fighting and Bellator, and a bunch of others, they are doing a version of what UFC does,” he said. “I’m not doing a Spanish version, I think I’m doing a different style of fighting, emphasizing different things, with a little more variety. We’re using guys you won’t see anywhere else because we’re discovering these guys. Our weight classes are 125 to 170 pounds. Like in boxing, I’m taking speed over power in terms of exciting fights. That’s where we focus, fights with a lot of action, a lot of stand-up, and a lot of heart.”
McLaren noted that Jose Rodriguez, a huge pro wrestling star in Mexico who was a top name in the U.S. for years under the name Alberto Del Rio and Alberto El Patron, will be one of the show’s announcers. Rodriguez used the name Dos Caras Jr. as a heavyweight MMA fighter mostly in Japan and Mexico. McLaren had been in talks of using Del Rio, who competed at the international level in Greco-Roman wrestling in the late ’90s and comes from a legendary wrestling family that includes an uncle, Mexican cultural icon Mil Mascaras, as his biggest name star months ago.
Plans are for a second show in October from South Florida and a third show on Nov. 19 from Las Vegas.
The theme of the shows will be the “Road to the Championship,” creating champions in different weight classes. It will not be a tournament format, but fighters will fight on a regular basis, and in late 2016, the fighters with the most wins in each weight class will battle for the title.
Most, but not all, of the fighters will be Hispanic.
“Predominately, but we’re not excluding anyone,” said McLaren. “It’s probably not legal to do so anyway. But we do want the fighters to speak Spanish. You have to be bilingual. It’s America. We do want non-Hispanic fighters as well. But we’re looking for guys you haven’t seen before.
“There’s UFC, there’s Bellator, which is the retirement home for UFC, and World Series, which is for the guys who get expelled from UFC for bad behavior, and us.”
McLaren said that they are scouting for talent in different cities, like McAllen, Texas, and Hialeah, Fla.
“I’m giving people a chance to make a name and giving them the biggest shot of their lives in or out of the cage,” he said. “The response is the guys go for it.”
“NBC Universo’s partnership with Combate Americas delivers on our promise to provide our Latino viewers rousing and edgy entertainment and the biggest events,” said Ruben Mendiola, the President of NBC Universo.
“I’m opening up this sport to a huge group of people who have been overlooked,” said McLaren. “Donald Trump has made them the bad guys. Nobody else has gone after this group in the MMA business. But Bob Arum said this is the group that kept boxing alive in America.”
Sunday’s UFC Fight Night from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan did 796,000 viewers, about 12-percent lower than a normal prime time Fight Night show would do this year.
Although Sunday has been a good day in the past for UFC events on FS1, this week’…
Sunday’s UFC Fight Night from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan did 796,000 viewers, about 12-percent lower than a normal prime time Fight Night show would do this year.
Although Sunday has been a good day in the past for UFC events on FS1, this week’s show from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan did below average numbers.
UFC Fight Night 74, headlined by a disappointing 99-second main event with Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira, was weak on star power overall. It did 796,000 viewers, the third-lowest for a prime time Fight Night show on FS1 so far this year. That is 12-percent below the year-to-date prime time average (not including the Conor McGregor fight in January) of 901,000 viewers. It did beat the 689,000 viewers for the same weekend last year with the Benson Henderson vs. Rafael dos Anjos main event.
Sunday’s event actually peaked early, with the high point being 970,000 viewers for the Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Tony Sims fight.
Most of the show went head-to-head with an NFL preseason game with the St. Louis Rams vs. Tennessee Titans on FOX, which drew 5.41 million viewers, as well as WWE’s third-biggest event of the year, SummerSlam. That aired on WWE’s streaming network and pay-per-view, and was headlined by a Brock Lesnar vs. Undertaker rematch that got considerable mainstream sports publicity during the week.
The main event, which promised to be an action fight, ending early, didn’t help the overall number. But that type of fight was unlikely to move ratings significantly, because Holloway and Oliveira aren’t well known names to the general public.
The prelims did 542,000 viewers, down from the 580,000 average for prime time shows on FS1 since February.
There’s a familiar exchange on most UFC interviews with winners after the fight.
The interviewer asks the winner who he wants to fight next, and the vast majority of the time, the fighter will say he’ll fight anyone the UFC decides …
There’s a familiar exchange on most UFC interviews with winners after the fight.
The interviewer asks the winner who he wants to fight next, and the vast majority of the time, the fighter will say he’ll fight anyone the UFC decides to put him against next, which also usually includes references to names like Lorenzo Fertitta, Dana White, as well as matchmakers Joe Silva and Sean Shelby.
That’s also the last thing the interviewer is looking for, but given that it’s the response most of the time, it is what they are expecting.
Max Holloway on Sunday night, after his bittersweet win over Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC Fight Night 74 in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, was more than prepared for the question. He not only mentioning Frankie Edgar as who he wanted to face next, but also brought up Aloha Stadium in Honolulu as a venue. He pushed both later that night at the press conference. While the venue would seem unlikely, Edgar would be the best next opponent he could ask for to make his name. And by asking directly, he increased the chances of him getting it.
“I’m serious, everyone here hashtag ‘UFC Hawaii,’ tell Dana White you all want to go to Hawaii,” Holloway said. “It’ll be a great trip. It’ll be super fun. Let’s get UFC to Hawaii. Let’s get Frankie Edgar versus Max Holloway in the stadium. It’ll be huge.”
Holloway also talked about facing Conor McGregor in a rematch, which, if UFC were to come to Hawaii, given McGregor’s ability to promote a fight, it on the surface would be more likely for the big stadium risk. But given the weather concerns about doing an outdoor show in Hawaii, the stadium sounds great on paper but it’s a long shot at best.
“I’d fight him any day of the week,” said Holloway, who has now won seven in a row, with six stoppages, since his August 17, 2013, loss via decision to McGregor.
Holloway said if the UFC had given him the call instead of Chad Mendes, for the July 11 fight, he’d have taken it. But Holloway realistically needed one win among the guys in the division’s big four – champion Jose Aldo, interim king McGregor, Edgar and Mendes – before he could have been considered when the spot opened up. His name isn’t quite strong enough for that position, but a win over any of the big four would change that.
“Holloway vs. McGregor, you got money with the No. 2 (underdog, which he would be) in that fight.”
Holloway’s mentioning Hawaii is notable because when UFC first started getting popular, Hawaii seemed on its radar. Even now, but particularly during the heyday of B.J. Penn, there may have been nowhere in the U.S. outside of Las Vegas with the level of UFC popularity as the 50th state. On a per capita basis, it’s pay-per-view numbers were some of the strongest anywhere. With the SuperBrawl promotion, as well as other groups, Honolulu was one of first hotbeds of live MMA in the U.S. in the late 90s, with regular shows that often packed the 8,800-seat Neil Blaisdell Center. Ten years ago, K-1 ran a show at Aloha Stadium headlined by Penn vs. Renzo Gracie, although doing 11,500 fans in a 50,000-seat football stadium was probably not a success.
But UFC has never run there. At first, when Penn was lightweight champion, the feeling was the arena was too small and the stadium was too large. Now, with the likely pent up demand for a live UFC event, the stadium being so large wouldn’t be an issue, but the weather always would be. UFC has run outdoors in Abu Dhabi, but the weather there is far more predicable than in Hawaii. There was also the expense at the time of running in Hawaii. But now, with UFC having run all over the world and Fight Nights are often held in venues the size of the Blaisdell Center, it would seem like such an event is overdue.
At 23 years old, Holloway just became the youngest fighter to have ten UFC wins. The Oliveira win was a mixed blessing. Along with his prior fight where he took apart Cub Swanson on the April 18 FOX show, Oliveira was easily the biggest name victory of Holloway’s career. A fight with Edgar was the right fight for him to ask for, but would also be a huge step up in competition.
But it’s really as if the Oliveira fight never took place. Oliveira, who had suffered a neck injury in training, went numb when he fell into the cage and the fight had to be stopped in just 1:39. Really, there wasn’t even a glimpse of what a Holloway vs. Oliveira fight would be before it was already over.
“It sucked,” said Holloway, even though he had just his hand raised in the main event. “I trained super hard. It (injuries) comes with the territory. My prayers to Charles. At the end of the day, he’s ranked No. 7 in the world. He gets money from fighting. An injury sets you back. If you can’t fight, you can’t pay your bills.”
Let’s look at how Fortunes Changed for five stars of Sunday’s show.
MAX HOLLOWAY – Holloway (14-3), along with Ricardo Lamas, are the top two featherweights right now ranked just below the big four. Lamas is already booked with Diego Sanchez in November, so he’s out of the picture as a next opponent.
Edgar (19-4-1) and Mendes (17-3) are both viable. Edgar makes sense, provided he doesn’t want to sit it out and wait for the Aldo vs. McGregor winner, since he would be the logical next contender. If he wants to fight, Holloway or Mendes would be the most viable opponent. Edgar vs. Mendes is an interesting fight that has never happened. The negative on it is Mendes has also lost three times challenging for the title. While Mendes did UFC a favor in taking the McGregor fight on short notice, it would seem quick for him to get another shot. So putting him against Edgar, where he could derail Edgar’s chances at a title shot, may be the wrong fight for now.
If UFC goes with Edgar vs. Mendes, you could do Holloway vs. Oliveira, depending on Oliveira’s condition. The fight looked exciting on paper and still looks that way. But Oliveira is a question mark due to injury. If that’s the case, the other pick would be Clay Guida (32-15). Guida is a name fighter that Holloway would be favored against. A win in that fight should get him a fight with one of the big four after that.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA – Oliveira, with a win, would have been in the spot Holloway is now, a 25-year-old fighter knocking on the door of the big four in a featherweight division that has never been more in the spotlight.
What is next for him depends more on his recovery time. If the recovery time is short enough that he can fight in a few months, he should hope that Edgar vs. Mendes is booked, because that leaves him in a good position for the rematch with Holloway. If the injury takes more time, the face of the division will change, but he still should come back against a top-ten fighter and be a win away from top tier.
NEIL MAGNY – Magny (16-5) took Sunday’s fight with Erick Silva on late notice, only having four days in camp, and being just 22 days removed from his loss to Demian Maia. He won a split decision. This gives him eight wins in his last nine fights. This streak took place over an 18-month period, making him the company’s iron man, being the go-to guy in the division when a late replacement is needed.
“Every single opportunity to do what I love is a blessing, so I need to take full advantage of it,” Magny said about his willingness to fight so frequently. “When I’m old and beat up and can’t fight anymore, I’ll wish I had the opportunity to do it again. If the opportunity comes up now, I’ll take full advantage of it if I’m healthy and ready to go.”
Magny lost some steam since he was dominated by Maia. He came into Sunday’s fight at No. 15 in the division. With winning, a viable next fight would be No. 9 ranked Stephen Thompson (11-1). While unranked, another good opponent for him would be Lorenz Larkin (16-4).
ERICK SILVA – Silva (18-6, 1 no contest) exploded on the UFC scene three years ago and looked like a potential top tier welterweight with his five wins (and one disqualification loss where he had Carlo Prater all but beaten in less than 30 seconds when the fight was called for an illegal strike) ending in the first round. But he’s now 5-4, and the Magny loss may be the toughest thus far in his career to come back from. He’s now 31, and is falling into the position of being just another name on the card.
Now it’s more about just matching him with guys and trying to make exciting undercard fights. So a good next opponent would be Jordan Mein (29-10). Silva’s previous losses were such that he still felt like there was top-ten potential there. His loss to Matt Brown was one of last year’s best fights, he was facing a top-ten opponent, and he nearly won early. His loss to Dong Hyun Kim was one where he was knocked out, but there were points in that bout that he also nearly won against another ranked contender. When he lost to Jon Fitch, he was early in his UFC career, and Fitch was still considered one of the best in the world, and they had an excellent fight.
PATRICK COTE – Cote (23-9) remains a journeyman welterweight who is 35 years old. He’s valuable to have on shows in Canada because he’s an established popular veteran. He was the most popular fighter to the Saskatoon crowd on Sunday.
While Josh Burkman came into the fight with 11 losses, all were via submission or decision. Cote not only won, but became the first fighter in 41 fights to finish Burkman via strikes.
Cote was very aggressive in talking about what he wanted next, both in the ring and after the fight. He asked for Hector Lombard. Lombard is currently on a suspension for testing positive for steroids in a win over Burkman on Jan. 3. His suspension ends in January and Cote said it’s who he wanted and when he wanted to fight next.
Lombard, shortly after dropping from middleweight, called out Cote. Cote felt the timing wasn’t right.
“I’m getting close to the top 15, maybe I’ll be there after this fight,” he said. “This fight makes sense now. He’s gonna came back in January. I can say that tonight I’m ready to accept this challenge for sure.”
Cote would be a heavy underdog. In talking up the fight heavily, he helps his odds in getting it. And at this stage of his career, a win there would benefit him far more than any other fight he’s viably going to get. Even if he doesn’t get that fight, it will at least be something UFC would talk about. And that’s why, when that question is asked in the cage after a win, the best thing for a fighter to do is scout their division, and publicly aim for the fight that will do your career the most good.
Three of the biggest stars of the early days of mixed martial arts will be part of the promotion for Bellator’s next tentpole event on Sept. 19 in San Jose.
Bellator head Scott Coker confirmed that Fedor Emelianenko, Kazushi Sakuraba and Fra…
Three of the biggest stars of the early days of mixed martial arts will be part of the promotion for Bellator’s next tentpole event on Sept. 19 in San Jose.
For Sakuraba, it would be his first time affiliated with the promotion. Emelianenko has appeared at Bellator events in the past, as have other historical figures in the sport like Royce Gracie and Ken Shamrock.
However, jumping to the conclusion that means that Bellator is on the trail of Emelianenko, who is training for a comeback, may be inaccurate.
“We haven’t had any talks with Fedor and his people,” said Coker, who promoted four fights with Emelianenko when he ran the Strikeforce promotion.
Coker gave the impression that isn’t a direction he’s looking at going, noting Emelianenko’s price tag may not make sense for Bellator as a pure television product. He also noted Emelianenko went 1-3 in Strikeforce, and that it would be a difficult deal to put together.
For Emelianenko, coming to San Jose would be a return to the site of one of his most famous fights. On June 26, 2010, Emelianenko, generally considered at the time the greatest heavyweight MMA fighter of all-time, lost in 69 seconds to a triangle choke against current UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum. Emelianenko’s only prior loss was in 2000, a stoppage due to a cut coming from an elbow that was technically illegal.
Sakuraba was the key figure in the explosion of MMA in Japan in 2000, after his win over Royce Gracie in a no time limit match in 2000 at the Tokyo Dome that went 90 minutes. Sakuraba became a national hero for beating four Gracie family members, Royce, Royler, Renzo and Ryan. He was the biggest star in Japan for the next several years, as the sport reached a peak that saw them sell out the 52,000-seat Tokyo Dome on a number of occasions.
Before the days of weight classes, Sakuraba, at probably 185 pounds, won a one-night heavyweight tournament on a UFC show in 1997, but never fought for the promotion again.
His performance on May 1, 2000, as part of an eight-man one-night no weight class tournament held at the Tokyo Dome, is something of legends. Weighing in at 174 pounds, due to wanting the most stamina for a no-time limit fight with Royce Gracie, he finally finished the match when the Gracie family threw in the towel at the 90-minute mark due to the damage Sakuraba did with low kicks.
He then fought a second time, against 225-pound heavyweight Igor Vovchanchyn. Vovchanchyn, a Russian, was at the time one of the best heavyweights in the world, sporting a 40-2 record. Sakuraba used his wrestling to dominate the first ten minutes of the fight, until, after 100 minutes of fighting, he hit the stamina wall and was beaten on for the next five minutes, before the match was finally stopped by his corner.
Sakuraba, during his heyday, mostly fought men much larger than he was. Given that he was able to easily make welterweight, and probably could have made lightweight since he wrestled at 152 pounds in college, Sakuraba fought mostly what today would be light heavyweights, 220 pounders cutting to 205. He also fought several heavyweights, including once losing to Mirko Cro Cop before 71,000 fans at the Tokyo National Stadium in 2002.
Now 46, Sakuraba came to the U.S. in November for a grappling match with Renzo Gracie on a Metamoris show, which went to a draw. He currently works as a pro wrestler for New Japan Pro Wrestling, where he last year had a long program with another MMA pioneer, Minoru Suzuki, as well as with Igor and Daniel Gracie..
Shamrock, who really put MMA on the map in San Jose, was Coker’s biggest drawing card when he started Strikeforce in 2006. He was UFC’s top star from 1997 to 1999 as the under-200 pound champion, before leaving the promotion after a win over Tito Ortiz.
The announcement on Wednesday that Cain Velasquez would be getting a rematch with Fabricio Werdum for the UFC heavyweight title seemed to get a mostly negative reaction, even though Dana White had strongly hinted it already, and the two most…
The announcement on Wednesday that Cain Velasquez would be getting a rematch with Fabricio Werdum for the UFC heavyweight title seemed to get a mostly negative reaction, even though Dana White had strongly hinted it already, and the two most viable contenders were linked to other opponents.
I can understand the feeling. When Velasquez lost on June 13 to Werdum, it felt logical to me that Werdum should face Junior dos Santos next, and Velasquez should face someone like Andrei Arlovski or Stipe Miocic with a title opportunity at stake. Since that time, Arlovski was announced as facing Frank Mir and there have been strong hints of dos Santos against Alistair Overeem. And then Fedor Emelianenko’s name suddenly resurfaced after UFC 189, and Emelianenko vs. Velasquez was a unique battle of the dominant heavyweights in the sport over two different eras.
But at the end of the day, White has always said that the UFC is about figuring out what matches the people most want to see and promoting them. UFC, as an individual combat sports organization, is completely different from a team sport or a league sport. For those citing that you don’t get into the Super Bowl after losing in the playoffs, or make the NCAA Final Four while losing earlier in the tournament, that is both correct, but it’s also irrelevant, because the public’s decisions of what they want to see have made that so.
Team sports survive based on fan loyalty to a team. In the major sports, the leagues are solid entities. Strong franchises pack their buildings many times per month, often with only slight variations based on the opponents.
Combat sports are a completely different animal. While in the big picture, all sports are superstar driven, a major team sport is not going to have the kind of business decline that UFC had in 2014 because of all the injuries and departure of its two leading stars. They may lose games and drop in attendance, but they won’t drop the way UFC did when the bad luck streak started. Nor do other sports have the kind of turnaround that UFC had this year largely based on the explosion of Conor McGregor and Ronda Rousey.
A bottom level UFC pay-per-view event, even with great fighters and a legitimate championship fight, but with an uncharismatic champion, can struggle to break 100,000 buys. A few weeks later, the same company, with the right main event, can come close to doing 1 million buys. Because of that, the importance of being able to gauge what the public wants, or more is willing to pay for, is really a make-or-break aspect for any national company.
The problem is that it’s an inexact science. Some of it is based on market research. Some is based on gut feeling.
Things like not getting title shots come off losses that is so important to the media and to the hardcore fans, is something that the people who actually buy UFC pay-per-views seem to care very little about.
The perfect example of what the public wants was when Nick Diaz, coming off a drug suspension and a loss, faced Georges St-Pierre, and did 950,000 buys, one of the bigger numbers in company history. The legitimate top contender, Johny Hendricks, faced St-Pierre next, and did 600,000 buys. Another is when Chael Sonnen, coming off a loss at middleweight, moved up to light heavyweight and faced Jon Jones, and pulled far bigger numbers than the more legitimate contenders, Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira, who Jones faced in his next two fights.
If anything, this year has only proven the public hasn’t changed. We’ve had the rise of Conor McGregor into a huge drawing card before he had really even been tested, based on his mouth. And we’ve had the success of Kimbo Slice vs. Ken Shamrock, a fighter who never had a prime in the sport against a fighter whose prime was two decades ago, which blew away the interest level in anything Bellator had ever done. It did far better than when Bellator was built around the playoff tournament format system.
Ultimately, it’s the personalities and the grudge matches that grow the sport’s popularity. Bellator had a huge increase in viewership after ditching the sports-style tournaments to create legitimate contenders and replaced it with focusing on fighters who were long past their primes, but had name value from years ago.
There is the argument that eventually the public will lose interest in past-their-prime stars who aren’t great fighters, or big-mouthed personalities who aren’t proven against top competition. The idea is the current direction of contrived grudge matches and reliance of stars will run their course, and this type of booking will create a sports credibility loss that will do more harm than good in the long run.
Nobody knows when, if ever, the public will change what it wants to see.
What we do know is that when the public stops buying heavily promoted fights with guys coming off losses, and fights with people coming off wins start doing the top business numbers, the promoters are likely to follow suit in matchmaking decision. But until that comes, and it may never come, making a theoretical fight based on what the public isn’t interested in seeing and thinking that is a superior direction for companies that need to cater to the most people possible is kind of foolish.
That said, this only slightly relates to the heavyweight and light heavyweight division. The decision to give Velasquez a title shot comes after an even more controversial decision to give Gustafsson a light heavyweight title shot at Daniel Cormier.
Velasquez, while losing the title to Werdum in his last outing, was the sport’s dominant heavyweight for the past five years. And if his loss to Werdum was because the altitude caused the unthinkable, which was Velasquez running out of gas, that is on him because failing to prepare as well as your opponent and losing has been part of the fight game for as long as its been in existence. Still, the question does remain whether Werdum would have won the fight at sea level.
Velasquez is not a big draw, but in comparing interest levels to the public with him with the other possible contenders, Andrei Arlovski, Junior Dos Santos and Stipe Miocic, he is well ahead of all of them. Before the announcement was made, Velasquez was also ranked by the media as the No. 1 contender. There isn’t a Johny Hendricks in this field who clearly deserves a title shot based on wins, being passed over by someone ranked below him coming off a loss. It’s the person considered the No. 2 guy behind Werdum in the division, getting a shot in a division where nobody has stood out ahead of the others in deserving a shot.
Arlovski has a few wins, but hasn’t beaten anyone in the top tier. The main argument for him to get a title shot is that it makes for a great story about a guy whose prime seemed to end ten years ago and whose career seemed over in 2011, has won seven of his last eight fights.
Dos Santos does hold a win over Werdum, but Velasquez destroyed dos Santos badly twice, and he didn’t look like the same fighter in his last bout with Miocic. Miocic only has a one-fight win streak, and lost, albeit very close, to dos Santos. And Miocic has the weakest name value of the four.
Similarly, in the light heavyweight division, Gustafsson, even though he was knocked out by Anthony Johnson in the first round in his prior fight, was ranked ahead of everyone in the division except Johnson, who Cormier finished. Gustafsson is also a bigger star than Ryan Bader, who most expected to get the first shot. Gustafsson is not a bigger star, at least in North America, than Rashad Evans. But Evans won’t have fought for 23 months when he steps in with Bader in a bout that is likely to create a future title contender. And Gustafsson is the key component of the UFC’s great success in Sweden.
So if you look at the framework that both of these controversial picks for challengers were both the highest ranked viable contenders and their fights are likely to generate the most interest, it explains title shots coming off a loss. If the public, as well as those who do rankings, cared that much about contenders losing their last fight before getting the shot, the UFC would probably have made a different choice.
Of course, then we look at the welterweight division. Hendricks is the No. 1 contender, who has fought evenly with champion Robbie Lawler in two fights, both of which went the distance, and they are tied at five rounds apiece. The first fight may have been 2014’s best match, so it’s not like the two match up in a way that creates a boring fight.
Carlos Condit is ranked No. 4, has lost three of his last five, including bouts to current contenders Hendricks and Tyron Woodley.
And Condit is getting the shot. The reason? He’s certainly no bigger of a name.
But in the end, those making the decision probably figured the public would want to see him get the shot more. And that inconsistent value judgment is likely because fans are inconsistent in what they want, and trying to figure out what the public wants is based on hunches and gut feelings. There are guidelines to learn from, but in the end, it’s not an exact science.
