Robbie Lawler’s dominant performance, complete with a ref stoppage finish in the third round over Jake Ellenberger at UFC 173, has made him the frontrunner for the next welterweight title match.
While not outright declaring him the next top contender, UFC President Dana White endorsed Lawler (23-10, 1 no contest) on more than one occasion in talking to press after the fight.
“How could you deny him the fight,” said White. “The fight with Hendricks was awesome. With his performance before the Hendricks fight, no doubt he’s the No. 1 guy (contender) in the world.”
Lawler lost a straight 48-47 decision to Hendricks in their March 15 fight in Dallas to fill the welterweight title vacancy left when champion George St-Pierre took a leave from the sport.
In most people’s eyes, the first fight between the two, among the best fights so far this year, was even going into the final round.
Hendricks suffered a torn biceps prior to the fight, and had surgery afterwards, and is targeting somewhere between September and November for a return.
“I did a good job, I got a stoppage and I put everyone on notice, and I know I’m in the conversation,” said Lawler.
White did indicate that he would likely wait until the Tyron Woodley vs. Rory MacDonald fight takes place, on June 14 in Vancouver, B.C., before outright announcing anything.
But he also gave the indication that both Woodley and MacDonald would have the pressure on them.
Woodley (13-2) is coming off stoppage wins over Josh Koscheck and Carlos Condit. MacDonald (16-2) has won six of seven, but his most recent loss was to Lawler.
White did praise Woodley, noting he has been aggressively finishing his fights of late, and compared his recent performances with those of Lawler. Woodley has past history with Hendricks, as Hendricks beat him for the Big-12 collegiate wrestling championship nine years ago, and has been wanting a shot at him since both became top MMA stars.
But it was clear that it will take nothing less than a spectacular win by Woodley for him to get the next shot.
Robbie Lawler’s dominant performance, complete with a ref stoppage finish in the third round over Jake Ellenberger at UFC 173, has made him the frontrunner for the next welterweight title match.
While not outright declaring him the next top contender, UFC President Dana White endorsed Lawler (23-10, 1 no contest) on more than one occasion in talking to press after the fight.
“How could you deny him the fight,” said White. “The fight with Hendricks was awesome. With his performance before the Hendricks fight, no doubt he’s the No. 1 guy (contender) in the world.”
Lawler lost a straight 48-47 decision to Hendricks in their March 15 fight in Dallas to fill the welterweight title vacancy left when champion George St-Pierre took a leave from the sport.
In most people’s eyes, the first fight between the two, among the best fights so far this year, was even going into the final round.
Hendricks suffered a torn biceps prior to the fight, and had surgery afterwards, and is targeting somewhere between September and November for a return.
“I did a good job, I got a stoppage and I put everyone on notice, and I know I’m in the conversation,” said Lawler.
White did indicate that he would likely wait until the Tyron Woodley vs. Rory MacDonald fight takes place, on June 14 in Vancouver, B.C., before outright announcing anything.
But he also gave the indication that both Woodley and MacDonald would have the pressure on them.
Woodley (13-2) is coming off stoppage wins over Josh Koscheck and Carlos Condit. MacDonald (16-2) has won six of seven, but his most recent loss was to Lawler.
White did praise Woodley, noting he has been aggressively finishing his fights of late, and compared his recent performances with those of Lawler. Woodley has past history with Hendricks, as Hendricks beat him for the Big-12 collegiate wrestling championship nine years ago, and has been wanting a shot at him since both became top MMA stars.
But it was clear that it will take nothing less than a spectacular win by Woodley for him to get the next shot.
Dana White has been pushing all week that Renan Barao is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. While some may dismiss this as promoter hyperbole in building this week’s fight, his position is very reasonable to take. But, no matter where you rate Barao among the greats, he has yet to click at the box office.
Two days before UFC 173, Dana White was in a scrum with reporters and he was talking about this week’s favorite subject, the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Renan Barao.
Now, some of you may recall White saying that about Jon Jones ever since Anderson Silva lost for the first time last summer. Well, the good thing about being a reporter or a fan is you’re allowed to change your mind. When you’re the UFC President, you change your mind over time and it’s a contradiction, double-talk, or a promoter hyping this week’s fight.
But, after watching Urijah Faber go down to Barao for a second time on Feb. 1 in Newark, N.J., the suggestion of Barao as the best fighter in the sport can’t be dismissed as just promoter hyperbole during fight week..
Unlike Jose Aldo, Jones, Anthony Pettis, Ronda Rousey and Cain Velasquez, Barao is the one UFC champion who has never been in any kind of trouble in a fight. If he’s got a weakness, it’s a carefully guarded secret. You can argue about his competition, but after watching Faber the past few years against everyone but Barao, and then watching Faber against Barao, that argument falls on deaf ears.
Yet, it almost felt like White was arguing about the one thing that Barao is also the embodiment of.
Just because you are the best in the world in your weight or even the entire sport, doesn’t mean people are going to pay in droves to see you. Barao may be the greatest fighter in the sport, but he’s only the fourth biggest star on Saturday’s show, behind Dan Henderson, Daniel Cormier and Robbie Lawler.
With that conundrum, we’ve been left with a week of excuses as to why. He doesn’t speak English. He doesn’t hype his fights well. He’s too small. He’s not good looking enough. He hasn’t that the right opponent. He washes his clothes in the sink. Some of them, or all of them, well except for right opponent, because Faber is as marketable a challenger as you’re getting in a lighter weight class, and the clothes in a sink part, probably have some validity.
The reality is that two pay-per-views in a row where, going in, everyone knows the numbers aren’t going to be big. Barao vs. T.J. Dillashaw has a story. Dillashaw is part of the long quest to be the first Team Alpha Male fighter, after five unsuccessful title shots, to actually win a UFC title, battling the guy who beat his mentor twice. Or is Dillashaw the next victim of the sport’s greatest unbeaten streak, which is somewhere between 33 and 35 fights since Barao lost his debut fight nine years ago as an 18-year-old, depending on where you go to get your info? It’s unprecedented number, almost incomprehensible if you sit down and think about it, for someone at the top level in this sport. That in itself should be a hook–the greatest streak in the history of the sport is at stake.
It’s possible Saturday could have been the show that challenges the UFC’s pay-per-view baseline, that is, what is the lowest number a UFC show with a very legitimate title match can draw. But my gut says, this will not hit that level. The key reason is that even though the show is promoted around Barao vs. Dillashaw, the real main event is Henderson vs. Cormier. Plus, Lawler vs. Jake Ellenberger is a solid fight for its position on the show. Another is that people get together on holiday weekends and are looking for entertainment. By Saturday night, they aren’t caring nearly as much at what the cost of that entertainment will be. It’s not the strongest UFC show ever, but it is a UFC show with some names, and fights with significant implications.
Unlike boxing promoters, UFC, ironically, the newer game, strongly sticks to more traditional based promotion. The title match, no matter who is in it, goes on last. If there are two title matches, with rare exceptions, the bigger guys are going on last. No matter what names are involved, it is the title match that the promotion is built around.
The positive in that mentality is the championship is positioned as more important than the personalities or an occasional grudge match. You can argue for the long-term health of the sport, it’s the right move. Championships mean nothing in boxing today. When UFC had five champions not that many years ago, they had great value. It’s not as much now with nine, and some would argue about choices of challengers at times, but they haven’t been prostituted out of all meaning either.
But on a show like this, you sacrifice short-term. Building the promotion of the show around Henderson vs. Cormier would have yielded more results on this night. Yet, that’s not how things are done.
As far as what is the UFC’s pay-per-view baseline in 2014, the show that may answer that question comes in three weeks.
UFC 174, on June 14 in Vancouver, B.C. is built around flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson and Russian contender Ali Bagautinov. The No. 2 fight, Rory MacDonald vs .Tyron Woodley is strong enough that the winner could very well get the next welterweight title shot If the winner looks impressive, one would think it would be a lock. But three weeks between pay-per-views is a little early. Far worse for the next show, is that it’s three weeks before UFC 175, which is the biggest show of the year.
People who like to get together with their buddies once a month or so to watch fights, and see Saturday’s show, will have an easy time skipping 174. There will already be great awareness of the big one coming, with Chris Weidman and Ronda Rousey title matches and Wanderlei Silva vs. Chael Sonnen.
White, addressing the talk that these small guys aren’t drawing big numbers, brought up that it’s the lighter weights that have carried boxing. But there is a big difference. It’s the Hispanic fan base in the Southwest that has been a key in carrying boxing, and its nationalism as much as anything that leads to it. This country doesn’t have enough Brazilians to where the nationalism of a superstar from that country is going to yield the results of a similarly-successful Mexican.
Plus, great smaller fighters in the right match-up in boxing are visually impressive with their hand speed and footwork at a level that even a casual fan can see.
Smaller MMA fighters are no less skilled than boxers, but when it comes to fighting, an MMA champion is a jack of all trades as opposed to a master of one. With the exception of a quick transition into a submission, you aren’t going to get the knock your socks off mind blowing skill for an entire fight. You may get as good of a fight, or even better, if you get back-and-forth action. You may get every bit as memorable of a knockout finish. But there are reasons that certain things work differently in boxing than MMA.
The big guy style MMA fight that relies on power is far easier for a casual fan to understand. But in boxing, once you’re used to the speed of a smaller fight in a singular skilled sport, the big guy style feels more like plodding. Boxing fans are past the point where their sport is about wanting to see the biggest and baddest guys, particularly since MMA’s existence almost makes that lure today irrelevant. It’s more about huge personalities, nationalistic pride and impressive skills.
MMA is still about who can beat who up in the closest representation to a real fight that is allowed. And thus, size matters more. But personalities and stories of the fight will trump size.
Even with enough time to build a legacy, and/or the right opponent, Barao is probably never going to touch Georges St-Pierre’s box office marks. But if he continues to dominate his division for years to come, there may be a day where his streak becomes something the average fan talks about.
Until then, he’s the example of the reality of combat sports. Being the best doesn’t make you the biggest star.
Dana White has been pushing all week that Renan Barao is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. While some may dismiss this as promoter hyperbole in building this week’s fight, his position is very reasonable to take. But, no matter where you rate Barao among the greats, he has yet to click at the box office.
Two days before UFC 173, Dana White was in a scrum with reporters and he was talking about this week’s favorite subject, the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Renan Barao.
Now, some of you may recall White saying that about Jon Jones ever since Anderson Silva lost for the first time last summer. Well, the good thing about being a reporter or a fan is you’re allowed to change your mind. When you’re the UFC President, you change your mind over time and it’s a contradiction, double-talk, or a promoter hyping this week’s fight.
But, after watching Urijah Faber go down to Barao for a second time on Feb. 1 in Newark, N.J., the suggestion of Barao as the best fighter in the sport can’t be dismissed as just promoter hyperbole during fight week..
Unlike Jose Aldo, Jones, Anthony Pettis, Ronda Rousey and Cain Velasquez, Barao is the one UFC champion who has never been in any kind of trouble in a fight. If he’s got a weakness, it’s a carefully guarded secret. You can argue about his competition, but after watching Faber the past few years against everyone but Barao, and then watching Faber against Barao, that argument falls on deaf ears.
Yet, it almost felt like White was arguing about the one thing that Barao is also the embodiment of.
Just because you are the best in the world in your weight or even the entire sport, doesn’t mean people are going to pay in droves to see you. Barao may be the greatest fighter in the sport, but he’s only the fourth biggest star on Saturday’s show, behind Dan Henderson, Daniel Cormier and Robbie Lawler.
With that conundrum, we’ve been left with a week of excuses as to why. He doesn’t speak English. He doesn’t hype his fights well. He’s too small. He’s not good looking enough. He hasn’t that the right opponent. He washes his clothes in the sink. Some of them, or all of them, well except for right opponent, because Faber is as marketable a challenger as you’re getting in a lighter weight class, and the clothes in a sink part, probably have some validity.
The reality is that two pay-per-views in a row where, going in, everyone knows the numbers aren’t going to be big. Barao vs. T.J. Dillashaw has a story. Dillashaw is part of the long quest to be the first Team Alpha Male fighter, after five unsuccessful title shots, to actually win a UFC title, battling the guy who beat his mentor twice. Or is Dillashaw the next victim of the sport’s greatest unbeaten streak, which is somewhere between 33 and 35 fights since Barao lost his debut fight nine years ago as an 18-year-old, depending on where you go to get your info? It’s unprecedented number, almost incomprehensible if you sit down and think about it, for someone at the top level in this sport. That in itself should be a hook–the greatest streak in the history of the sport is at stake.
It’s possible Saturday could have been the show that challenges the UFC’s pay-per-view baseline, that is, what is the lowest number a UFC show with a very legitimate title match can draw. But my gut says, this will not hit that level. The key reason is that even though the show is promoted around Barao vs. Dillashaw, the real main event is Henderson vs. Cormier. Plus, Lawler vs. Jake Ellenberger is a solid fight for its position on the show. Another is that people get together on holiday weekends and are looking for entertainment. By Saturday night, they aren’t caring nearly as much at what the cost of that entertainment will be. It’s not the strongest UFC show ever, but it is a UFC show with some names, and fights with significant implications.
Unlike boxing promoters, UFC, ironically, the newer game, strongly sticks to more traditional based promotion. The title match, no matter who is in it, goes on last. If there are two title matches, with rare exceptions, the bigger guys are going on last. No matter what names are involved, it is the title match that the promotion is built around.
The positive in that mentality is the championship is positioned as more important than the personalities or an occasional grudge match. You can argue for the long-term health of the sport, it’s the right move. Championships mean nothing in boxing today. When UFC had five champions not that many years ago, they had great value. It’s not as much now with nine, and some would argue about choices of challengers at times, but they haven’t been prostituted out of all meaning either.
But on a show like this, you sacrifice short-term. Building the promotion of the show around Henderson vs. Cormier would have yielded more results on this night. Yet, that’s not how things are done.
As far as what is the UFC’s pay-per-view baseline in 2014, the show that may answer that question comes in three weeks.
UFC 174, on June 14 in Vancouver, B.C. is built around flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson and Russian contender Ali Bagautinov. The No. 2 fight, Rory MacDonald vs .Tyron Woodley is strong enough that the winner could very well get the next welterweight title shot If the winner looks impressive, one would think it would be a lock. But three weeks between pay-per-views is a little early. Far worse for the next show, is that it’s three weeks before UFC 175, which is the biggest show of the year.
People who like to get together with their buddies once a month or so to watch fights, and see Saturday’s show, will have an easy time skipping 174. There will already be great awareness of the big one coming, with Chris Weidman and Ronda Rousey title matches and Wanderlei Silva vs. Chael Sonnen.
White, addressing the talk that these small guys aren’t drawing big numbers, brought up that it’s the lighter weights that have carried boxing. But there is a big difference. It’s the Hispanic fan base in the Southwest that has been a key in carrying boxing, and its nationalism as much as anything that leads to it. This country doesn’t have enough Brazilians to where the nationalism of a superstar from that country is going to yield the results of a similarly-successful Mexican.
Plus, great smaller fighters in the right match-up in boxing are visually impressive with their hand speed and footwork at a level that even a casual fan can see.
Smaller MMA fighters are no less skilled than boxers, but when it comes to fighting, an MMA champion is a jack of all trades as opposed to a master of one. With the exception of a quick transition into a submission, you aren’t going to get the knock your socks off mind blowing skill for an entire fight. You may get as good of a fight, or even better, if you get back-and-forth action. You may get every bit as memorable of a knockout finish. But there are reasons that certain things work differently in boxing than MMA.
The big guy style MMA fight that relies on power is far easier for a casual fan to understand. But in boxing, once you’re used to the speed of a smaller fight in a singular skilled sport, the big guy style feels more like plodding. Boxing fans are past the point where their sport is about wanting to see the biggest and baddest guys, particularly since MMA’s existence almost makes that lure today irrelevant. It’s more about huge personalities, nationalistic pride and impressive skills.
MMA is still about who can beat who up in the closest representation to a real fight that is allowed. And thus, size matters more. But personalities and stories of the fight will trump size.
Even with enough time to build a legacy, and/or the right opponent, Barao is probably never going to touch Georges St-Pierre’s box office marks. But if he continues to dominate his division for years to come, there may be a day where his streak becomes something the average fan talks about.
Until then, he’s the example of the reality of combat sports. Being the best doesn’t make you the biggest star.
Since Saturday was Bellator’s first pay-per-view show, it’s a little early to know what this really means, but the prelim fights on Spike leading up to the main card did 712,000 viewers.
The number is not that far off from the 750,000 viewers who watched the prelims leading up to UFC 172 on Apr. 26 in a similar time slot on FS 1. But that fact alone tells you right away that it’s not about the viewership of the prelims, but the conversion rate of those viewers to paying customers. UFC 172 was estimated at doing 350,000 buys, while Bellator was unlikely to do more than a small fraction of that.
There are two flaws with direct comparisons. The first is that Spike is a more established station than FS 1, and has a significant higher base audience. The second is that Spike is in about nine million more U.S. households than FS 1.
There is a correlation between television viewers leading up to the show and pay-per-view numbers, as there should be, since it is measuring people already in front of their television sets watching. But there have been hugely successful pay-per-view shows where the ratings of the prelims would not have indicated anything special, and the opposite has also at times been the case.
Spike’s Bellator programming began at 7 p.m. Eastern time, with a Michael Chandler special, that had aired several times previously, and did 607,000 viewers. The special by that time was somewhat dated since it was focused around his previous matches with original opponent Eddie Alvarez. A special building up King Mo Lawal vs. Rampage Jackson, the new pay-per-view main event, did 511,000 viewers. That show had also had multiple airings over the previous week.
The prelims peaked just before the pay-per-view started, with the Check Kongo vs. Eric Smith fight reaching 962,000 viewers.
But the prelims did slightly above the usual Bellator average. Bellator is averaging 667,000 viewers on Friday nights this season.
UFC’s biggest television show of the past week, the May 14 episode of The Ultimate Fighter, did 417,000 viewers watching that night, and another 243,000 viewers watching the episode taped on Wednesday via DVR viewership before Saturday night. Those numbers were down from 438,000 same day viewers and 335,000 watching via DVR of the May 7 episode.
Ratings are courtesy of Neilsen.
Since Saturday was Bellator’s first pay-per-view show, it’s a little early to know what this really means, but the prelim fights on Spike leading up to the main card did 712,000 viewers.
The number is not that far off from the 750,000 viewers who watched the prelims leading up to UFC 172 on Apr. 26 in a similar time slot on FS 1. But that fact alone tells you right away that it’s not about the viewership of the prelims, but the conversion rate of those viewers to paying customers. UFC 172 was estimated at doing 350,000 buys, while Bellator was unlikely to do more than a small fraction of that.
There are two flaws with direct comparisons. The first is that Spike is a more established station than FS 1, and has a significant higher base audience. The second is that Spike is in about nine million more U.S. households than FS 1.
There is a correlation between television viewers leading up to the show and pay-per-view numbers, as there should be, since it is measuring people already in front of their television sets watching. But there have been hugely successful pay-per-view shows where the ratings of the prelims would not have indicated anything special, and the opposite has also at times been the case.
Spike’s Bellator programming began at 7 p.m. Eastern time, with a Michael Chandler special, that had aired several times previously, and did 607,000 viewers. The special by that time was somewhat dated since it was focused around his previous matches with original opponent Eddie Alvarez. A special building up King Mo Lawal vs. Rampage Jackson, the new pay-per-view main event, did 511,000 viewers. That show had also had multiple airings over the previous week.
The prelims peaked just before the pay-per-view started, with the Check Kongo vs. Eric Smith fight reaching 962,000 viewers.
But the prelims did slightly above the usual Bellator average. Bellator is averaging 667,000 viewers on Friday nights this season.
UFC’s biggest television show of the past week, the May 14 episode of The Ultimate Fighter, did 417,000 viewers watching that night, and another 243,000 viewers watching the episode taped on Wednesday via DVR viewership before Saturday night. Those numbers were down from 438,000 same day viewers and 335,000 watching via DVR of the May 7 episode.
Now that Bellator’s first pay-per-view is over, there was some tangible success in that more people were talking about the promotion than ever before. But the big questions regarding whether Bellator can be financially successful in that arena remain.
Now that Bellator’s first pay-per-view show is in the books, the key questions are was it a success? And do we get another?
The answers are difficult. The part we know looks to have been successful. Saturday’s show in Southhaven, Miss., just outside of Memphis, was entertaining, for things both good and bad, and at times frustrating. But it got more people talking about the company than ever before.
But the part we don’t know is what drives the business. What did the public decide, based not on the quality of the show, but the interest? Did enough people buy the show to make future shows on pay-per-view a reasonable hope to have a shot at making money, or would doing another one be a bad financial decision?
If the show did reasonably well financially, even if it lost money, if that number isn’t too large, there are a number of reasons to try again. The first is the reaction. Bellator is still only in its first 17 months on Spike TV. Sure, it’s been around a few years before that, but not at anywhere near its current level of exposure and interest. They are still in the brand building game. Shows like this build the brand more than a dozen Friday nights on Spike, even if television shows will have more viewers.
Case in point, on Sunday, the third most reached item on the Internet in the U.S. was Rampage Jackson, behind only Lorde, for her performance at the American Billboard Awards, and the Miami Heat. Bellator has never had anything poke into the mainstream even close to that level. It was an interest level on par with one of the weaker UFC pay-per-view shows.
But in brand building, the key is widening the audience of the brand is to heavily promote the brand. A key point is that for the most part, on the day after a UFC show, people are searching for UFC, unless it’s something like Anderson Silva breaking a leg or Ronda Rousey fighting. In this case, they were searching for Jackson, not Bellator. Some will praise that and say it shows Bellator builds the fighter, not the organization. And maybe, if they were searching for Michael Chandler or Will Brooks, I’d agree.
The reason for using high dollar stars like Jackson and Tito Ortiz is that their notoriety may get people watching. But the building phase for the company is not promoting Jackson and Ortiz as the focal point, because both of their times are limited. The idea should be that you then present a show, and showcase fighters fans don’t know, and hype them and hope they can become future stars.
Jackson and Ortiz are not the long-term future of Bellator. The idea is that Jackson gets a larger audience to check out the promotion. But when the talk the day after is the star from the past and not the Bellator brand or a star of the future, it somewhat mitigates the success.
Still, there is a huge psychological difference with fans between what they watch for free and what they pay to see. People were talking about this show at a level that probably no Bellator show previously reached. For someone like Michael Page, a British fighter who debuted with a one-punch knockout, his win was far more valuable to his career than a few wins on free television, even if more people were watching.
With the exception of a glitch during the Spike prelim show where announcer Jimmy Smith was interviewing “King” Mo Lawal, and couldn’t hear Lawal’s answers, the technical aspects of the show were good. Spike was used well to promote the big fights coming up. In between fights, they hit you hard that Lawal and Jackson was the biggest grudge match in MMA history. Whether it was or wasn’t, when it comes to getting people to make the decision to buy or not at the last minute, nothing is more effective than convincing people that the two headliners hate each other. And few in MMA are better than Jackson at playing the role of the somewhat likeable but dangerous guy, who is going to come out with vengeance to lay to an opponent.
He’s got the million dollar scowl, and the no-nonsense rap when he’s mentally into fight building. The most successful non-championship fight in UFC history was Jackson vs. Rashad Evans. Far too often in watching the two go at it, it looked like an attempt to simply copy a formula that worked. Lawal, at times, even used the same phrases as Evans did to Jackson, mocking him for being slow in particular.
As for the live gate, Bjorn Rebney’s lack of answer when directly asked the question about it spoke volumes. From a visual standpoint, it looked like a professional show. Most Bellator events are in smaller venues, and with all the spotlights in the background, it had a different look and feel. There was a strong opening video, even if it felt too similar to how UFC opened the show.
If anything, from the look and how it was shot, it felt almost too much like UFC. They should try and give the show a very distinct look in some form, whether it’s more creative entrances or a different type of presentation. But in saying it looked or felt like a UFC with different announcers and fighters, that right there tells you it looked like a professional pay-per-view event and not like a cheap imitation.
The fights are still the main course. It wasn’t boring and they gave you something to talk about.
Just like the early UFC’s were there to show that size doesn’t matter, Tito Ortiz vs. Alexander Shlemenko was living proof of how much it does .
But more than anything else, it felt like most of the post-show talked revolved around the judging of the final two fights. It was a lesson that no point scoring system can overcome bad judging. The weaknesses of ten-point must can lead to the wrong winners even with the best of judges. But the system had nothing to do with the head-scratching wins by Jackson and Will Brooks.
There’s not even any consistency in the questionable calls.
My usual thought is that in a close fight, you have to accept that either fighter can win. Michael Chandler did not blow Brooks out of the water, nor did Lawal do the same with Jackson. Yet, when the show was over, my feeling is that I’d be more comfortable with these judges picking a winner on a rock, paper, scissors standard than ten-point must.
With Jackson vs. Lawal, I wasn’t shocked Jackson won. When it was over, I thought that Lawal was the clear winner of rounds one and three. But in a judged fight, it is never good to be on the bicycle looking like you are dancing away and avoiding contact in the last minute, the one the judges usually put more weight on. Plus, it’s doubly bad when you are in the other guy’s home market in front of his fans. More often than not, a star can get a slight edge in any judged sport. And Jackson was the star. Lawal’s loss was almost assuredly him giving away the fight because he figured he had it in the bag, and he should have.
Fans really hating a fighter can be good for business. Lawal was out there antagonizing the crowd. He appeared to have the pro wrestler mentality in building the fight. But everyone hating you for what is perceived as stalling against a guy they want to see knock your head off may feel like music to your ears, it can work against you in a judged fight.
That crowd reaction shouldn’t affect the outcome with professional judges, but it often does.
Still, my thought after the fight is that we had something equivalent to a football game tied in the fourth quarter. The visiting team kicked two field goals while the home team never scored. The visiting team quarterback ran out the clock in the last minute by taking a knee, rather than tried to pass and risk losing a game seconds from being won. In this case, the judges all voted for the team that never scored, forgetting most of the quarter, and only remembering one team was stalling out the clock.
It’s not a disaster. Jackson is the bigger and more marketable star. Whether they do a rematch or not, he’s now won three in a row and lives to headline a few more shows.
With Chandler vs. Brooks, this is far harder to explain, particularly since I had the fight 47-47, as a draw. In theory that would mean that either fighter could win. To me, the only question in scoring is if you would give round three a 10-9 or 10-8 for Brooks, and I had the latter. While I had a draw, Chandler clearly won rounds one, two and five. There was, in my mind, no mathematical way this could go to Brooks. Yet it did by scores of 48-47, 47-48 and 48-46, when two judges gave Brooks round five.
All the reasons Jackson could have unjustly won didn’t apply here. In round five, Chandler was the one who finished strong, including a late knockdown, followed by serious ground and pound, and nearly finished Brooks with an arm triangle as the fight was coming to a close. Brooks had offense earlier in the round, including a German suplex and getting Chandler’s back, but his offense wasn’t nearly as effective as Chandler’s.
Plus, not that this should matter, Chandler was both the crowd favorite and bigger star.
It’s the second straight fight that Chandler lost that he probably shouldn’t have. This bad judging makes a huge difference in careers, and Chandler is the prime example. Instead of being 14-0, lightweight champion and would be argued as possibly the best lightweight in the world, Chandler is 12-2 and viewed very differently.
The wins also lead to a number of questions. Jackson’s win gives him the four-man light heavyweight tournament crown. That means he gets the next title shot at champion Emanuel Newton. But Jackson had made it clear that’s a fight he doesn’t want, since both train under Antonio McKee in the same gym. Even before the decision was read, Jackson was screaming that he wanted a rematch, which seemed to indicate he wasn’t very positive about his chances of getting the decision.
You could do a rematch, but the fight itself wasn’t all that exciting. If anything, as strange as this seems, Jackson vs. Ortiz is suddenly the most marketable light heavyweight fight in the company.
While Brooks garnered the interim championship, meaning the logical next step is a fight with real champion Eddie Alvarez to create a single champion, there are several mitigating factors in play.
The key, as Bellator CEO Bjorn Rebney stated after the fight, is the unique contract Alvarez signed called for one more fight with Chandler specifically. So the ball is in his court..
The unique circumstances make the logical fight also the stupid one for the promotion.
Alvarez is obligated for one more fight with Bellator before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, and can sign with UFC.
If he fights and beats Brooks, he’s the clear-cut champion, has beaten Bellator’s two best lightweights and his value to UFC is even stronger. Keep in mind he was guaranteed a title shot in his first UFC fight even though he was no longer Bellator champion, having lost to Chandler. There would be nothing worse for the company than Alvarez beating both Chandler and Brooks and leaving for UFC, as both two will be battling for a title that would mean far less.
If he were to fight Chandler, and beat him again, at least Bellator can crown Brooks as champion if Alvarez leaves, and Alvarez won’t have beaten him.
The Brooks win weakens a potential Chandler vs. Alvarez III fight somewhat, which would have likely been the main event of the second pay-per-view. But should Bellator go with the trilogy fight, in the big picture, Brooks having beaten Chandler and being a title claimant is better for the organization in the long run.
Of course, if either Brooks or Chandler beats Alvarez, the situation is completely different.
Now that Bellator’s first pay-per-view is over, there was some tangible success in that more people were talking about the promotion than ever before. But the big questions regarding whether Bellator can be financially successful in that arena remain.
Now that Bellator’s first pay-per-view show is in the books, the key questions are was it a success? And do we get another?
The answers are difficult. The part we know looks to have been successful. Saturday’s show in Southhaven, Miss., just outside of Memphis, was entertaining, for things both good and bad, and at times frustrating. But it got more people talking about the company than ever before.
But the part we don’t know is what drives the business. What did the public decide, based not on the quality of the show, but the interest? Did enough people buy the show to make future shows on pay-per-view a reasonable hope to have a shot at making money, or would doing another one be a bad financial decision?
If the show did reasonably well financially, even if it lost money, if that number isn’t too large, there are a number of reasons to try again. The first is the reaction. Bellator is still only in its first 17 months on Spike TV. Sure, it’s been around a few years before that, but not at anywhere near its current level of exposure and interest. They are still in the brand building game. Shows like this build the brand more than a dozen Friday nights on Spike, even if television shows will have more viewers.
Case in point, on Sunday, the third most reached item on the Internet in the U.S. was Rampage Jackson, behind only Lorde, for her performance at the American Billboard Awards, and the Miami Heat. Bellator has never had anything poke into the mainstream even close to that level. It was an interest level on par with one of the weaker UFC pay-per-view shows.
But in brand building, the key is widening the audience of the brand is to heavily promote the brand. A key point is that for the most part, on the day after a UFC show, people are searching for UFC, unless it’s something like Anderson Silva breaking a leg or Ronda Rousey fighting. In this case, they were searching for Jackson, not Bellator. Some will praise that and say it shows Bellator builds the fighter, not the organization. And maybe, if they were searching for Michael Chandler or Will Brooks, I’d agree.
The reason for using high dollar stars like Jackson and Tito Ortiz is that their notoriety may get people watching. But the building phase for the company is not promoting Jackson and Ortiz as the focal point, because both of their times are limited. The idea should be that you then present a show, and showcase fighters fans don’t know, and hype them and hope they can become future stars.
Jackson and Ortiz are not the long-term future of Bellator. The idea is that Jackson gets a larger audience to check out the promotion. But when the talk the day after is the star from the past and not the Bellator brand or a star of the future, it somewhat mitigates the success.
Still, there is a huge psychological difference with fans between what they watch for free and what they pay to see. People were talking about this show at a level that probably no Bellator show previously reached. For someone like Michael Page, a British fighter who debuted with a one-punch knockout, his win was far more valuable to his career than a few wins on free television, even if more people were watching.
With the exception of a glitch during the Spike prelim show where announcer Jimmy Smith was interviewing “King” Mo Lawal, and couldn’t hear Lawal’s answers, the technical aspects of the show were good. Spike was used well to promote the big fights coming up. In between fights, they hit you hard that Lawal and Jackson was the biggest grudge match in MMA history. Whether it was or wasn’t, when it comes to getting people to make the decision to buy or not at the last minute, nothing is more effective than convincing people that the two headliners hate each other. And few in MMA are better than Jackson at playing the role of the somewhat likeable but dangerous guy, who is going to come out with vengeance to lay to an opponent.
He’s got the million dollar scowl, and the no-nonsense rap when he’s mentally into fight building. The most successful non-championship fight in UFC history was Jackson vs. Rashad Evans. Far too often in watching the two go at it, it looked like an attempt to simply copy a formula that worked. Lawal, at times, even used the same phrases as Evans did to Jackson, mocking him for being slow in particular.
As for the live gate, Bjorn Rebney’s lack of answer when directly asked the question about it spoke volumes. From a visual standpoint, it looked like a professional show. Most Bellator events are in smaller venues, and with all the spotlights in the background, it had a different look and feel. There was a strong opening video, even if it felt too similar to how UFC opened the show.
If anything, from the look and how it was shot, it felt almost too much like UFC. They should try and give the show a very distinct look in some form, whether it’s more creative entrances or a different type of presentation. But in saying it looked or felt like a UFC with different announcers and fighters, that right there tells you it looked like a professional pay-per-view event and not like a cheap imitation.
The fights are still the main course. It wasn’t boring and they gave you something to talk about.
Just like the early UFC’s were there to show that size doesn’t matter, Tito Ortiz vs. Alexander Shlemenko was living proof of how much it does .
But more than anything else, it felt like most of the post-show talked revolved around the judging of the final two fights. It was a lesson that no point scoring system can overcome bad judging. The weaknesses of ten-point must can lead to the wrong winners even with the best of judges. But the system had nothing to do with the head-scratching wins by Jackson and Will Brooks.
There’s not even any consistency in the questionable calls.
My usual thought is that in a close fight, you have to accept that either fighter can win. Michael Chandler did not blow Brooks out of the water, nor did Lawal do the same with Jackson. Yet, when the show was over, my feeling is that I’d be more comfortable with these judges picking a winner on a rock, paper, scissors standard than ten-point must.
With Jackson vs. Lawal, I wasn’t shocked Jackson won. When it was over, I thought that Lawal was the clear winner of rounds one and three. But in a judged fight, it is never good to be on the bicycle looking like you are dancing away and avoiding contact in the last minute, the one the judges usually put more weight on. Plus, it’s doubly bad when you are in the other guy’s home market in front of his fans. More often than not, a star can get a slight edge in any judged sport. And Jackson was the star. Lawal’s loss was almost assuredly him giving away the fight because he figured he had it in the bag, and he should have.
Fans really hating a fighter can be good for business. Lawal was out there antagonizing the crowd. He appeared to have the pro wrestler mentality in building the fight. But everyone hating you for what is perceived as stalling against a guy they want to see knock your head off may feel like music to your ears, it can work against you in a judged fight.
That crowd reaction shouldn’t affect the outcome with professional judges, but it often does.
Still, my thought after the fight is that we had something equivalent to a football game tied in the fourth quarter. The visiting team kicked two field goals while the home team never scored. The visiting team quarterback ran out the clock in the last minute by taking a knee, rather than tried to pass and risk losing a game seconds from being won. In this case, the judges all voted for the team that never scored, forgetting most of the quarter, and only remembering one team was stalling out the clock.
It’s not a disaster. Jackson is the bigger and more marketable star. Whether they do a rematch or not, he’s now won three in a row and lives to headline a few more shows.
With Chandler vs. Brooks, this is far harder to explain, particularly since I had the fight 47-47, as a draw. In theory that would mean that either fighter could win. To me, the only question in scoring is if you would give round three a 10-9 or 10-8 for Brooks, and I had the latter. While I had a draw, Chandler clearly won rounds one, two and five. There was, in my mind, no mathematical way this could go to Brooks. Yet it did by scores of 48-47, 47-48 and 48-46, when two judges gave Brooks round five.
All the reasons Jackson could have unjustly won didn’t apply here. In round five, Chandler was the one who finished strong, including a late knockdown, followed by serious ground and pound, and nearly finished Brooks with an arm triangle as the fight was coming to a close. Brooks had offense earlier in the round, including a German suplex and getting Chandler’s back, but his offense wasn’t nearly as effective as Chandler’s.
Plus, not that this should matter, Chandler was both the crowd favorite and bigger star.
It’s the second straight fight that Chandler lost that he probably shouldn’t have. This bad judging makes a huge difference in careers, and Chandler is the prime example. Instead of being 14-0, lightweight champion and would be argued as possibly the best lightweight in the world, Chandler is 12-2 and viewed very differently.
The wins also lead to a number of questions. Jackson’s win gives him the four-man light heavyweight tournament crown. That means he gets the next title shot at champion Emanuel Newton. But Jackson had made it clear that’s a fight he doesn’t want, since both train under Antonio McKee in the same gym. Even before the decision was read, Jackson was screaming that he wanted a rematch, which seemed to indicate he wasn’t very positive about his chances of getting the decision.
You could do a rematch, but the fight itself wasn’t all that exciting. If anything, as strange as this seems, Jackson vs. Ortiz is suddenly the most marketable light heavyweight fight in the company.
While Brooks garnered the interim championship, meaning the logical next step is a fight with real champion Eddie Alvarez to create a single champion, there are several mitigating factors in play.
The key, as Bellator CEO Bjorn Rebney stated after the fight, is the unique contract Alvarez signed called for one more fight with Chandler specifically. So the ball is in his court..
The unique circumstances make the logical fight also the stupid one for the promotion.
Alvarez is obligated for one more fight with Bellator before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, and can sign with UFC.
If he fights and beats Brooks, he’s the clear-cut champion, has beaten Bellator’s two best lightweights and his value to UFC is even stronger. Keep in mind he was guaranteed a title shot in his first UFC fight even though he was no longer Bellator champion, having lost to Chandler. There would be nothing worse for the company than Alvarez beating both Chandler and Brooks and leaving for UFC, as both two will be battling for a title that would mean far less.
If he were to fight Chandler, and beat him again, at least Bellator can crown Brooks as champion if Alvarez leaves, and Alvarez won’t have beaten him.
The Brooks win weakens a potential Chandler vs. Alvarez III fight somewhat, which would have likely been the main event of the second pay-per-view. But should Bellator go with the trilogy fight, in the big picture, Brooks having beaten Chandler and being a title claimant is better for the organization in the long run.
Of course, if either Brooks or Chandler beats Alvarez, the situation is completely different.
Back in 2000, when the Fertitta Brothers started talking with Bob Meyrowitz about purchasing the UFC, the big question was, What exactly were they buying?
Meyrowitz had sold most of the company tangible assets in an attempt to keep the company alive. Lorenzo Fertitta years later noted, what they were buying, was three letters.
That $2 million check for a small percentage of the alphabet has paid dividends perhaps 1,000 times over for he and his brother.
As far as the value goes of the letters, in the 20-plus years that MMA has existed in the U.S. and Japan, something like 26 companies have tried pay-per-view. And in the end, 25 have ultimately failed in that arena.
There are all kinds of initials from CFFC, to MARS, to WFA, to EFC, WCC, KOTC, Ultimate Chaos, Yamma, Bodog and others far more forgettable. There were even companies that at one time were significant historically like Pride, Pancrase and Strikeforce. In common was unless you had the initials, ultimately, you never did big numbers, and ultimately didn’t survive on pay-per-view. What was important is that company after company built their business around a plan that included rich eggs from a golden goose that wasn’t nearly as golden as it looked from afar.
On Saturday, Bellator tries to join the small side of that ledger with its second attempt at a first impression.
What’s notable is, unlike all the others, whose business plan was based on a big score pay-per-view, Bellator has a completely different business model. It’s a television product owned by Viacom. Unlike most of the others, if Saturday’s show doesn’t do well, they’re still in business and running shows every Friday night in the fall. Little changes, except perhaps some, or a lot, of money is lost, a lesson may be learned and some egos may be quietly bruised.
There are arguments why Bellator could succeed on pay-per-view, and others why it can’t.
Why it could is that Bellator has a weekly television vehicle that can reach anywhere from 500,000 viewers on a show where the headliners are names that may as well have come from the witness protection program based on how well known they are, to 900,000 viewers with names that were once stars in UFC or were named Eddie Alvarez or Michael Chandler. The main events frequently top 1 million viewers. In theory, if this show was on Spike, it would probably do well in excess of 1 million viewers. So the mentality is, if you can get only 20 percent of those people to buy, you’ve hit a home run, and even 10 percent is a good showing to build from..
That’s a takeoff on the mentality that led the dirty dozens into bankruptcy.
We know there are a million people who are MMA fans that will buy pay-per-view, because Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz in 2006 showed us that. Whenever UFC has something really big, it can threaten or even beat that number. So if we can only get one out of ten of those fans to sample our show, we’ll be rich. That math sounds great, but real life is more complex than percentage of UFC’s big show numbers, or percentages of your television viewers.
Bellator’s sister promotion, TNA wrestling, which has both of Saturday’s main eventers, King Mo Lawal and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson under contract, even though neither has appeared on its show in months, does anywhere between 1 million and 1.5 million viewers every Thursday for free. When they go to pay-per-view, they’re getting maybe one percent of those people, not 20 percent.
Another reason it may not work is that Bellator this week has to make viewers overcome a huge psychological hurdle.
When viewers see your product as something that you don’t pay for, they are going to believe it isn’t worth paying for. UFC is already having that problem. The more free product there is on television, the harder it is to convince their audience to pay for it, unless it’s something really big. And UFC has protected its top stars, in the sense going forward, I don’t think you’ll be seeing Cain Velasquez, Jon Jones, Chris Weidman or Ronda Rousey defend their championships on free television.
Bellator has been a free product. Every star and every championship match has been given to the public free of charge. Asking them to then believe the product is something that they should pay for is going to only result in a push back, because Bellator has already established a price and a worth for its biggest fights. I saw Eddie Alvarez and Michael Chandler fight twice, and it gets no better than that, and it cost me nothing. Why should I pay to see Chandler face Will Brooks?
It’s the same mentality of why pay-per-view worked in the U.S. and Canada, but in other markets, like Japan and Mexico, it never really caught on.
The three stars of pay-per-view are boxing, pro wrestling and MMA. In the U.S., for as long as anyone can remember, the big boxing matches, whether it was Ali, Sugar Ray Leonard, Mike Tyson, Oscar De La Hoya or Floyd Mayweather Jr., were something you paid for. Before pay-per-view existed, you had to go to your local auditorium and watch it on a big screen. Pay-per-view was just a more convenient way to pay money than the old way. In pro wrestling, television promoted the big match, but before pay-per-view, you had to go to your local arena and pay to see it. After that, pay-per-view was a natural transition. UFC itself started on pay-per-view in 1993, and didn’t even get on regular television until 2005.
In Japan and Mexico, Ali fights were on network television live. The biggest pro wrestling matches were live and free in prime time on the networks. Pay-per-view did work to a degree, but as big as wrestling and combat sports were in Japanese society, it never worked like in the U.S. Mexico is the same situation. They always had their big boxing matches and big wrestling matches for free. Paying money for a big fight, even though boxing and wrestling are far bigger culturally than the U.S., never caught on to any significant level.
I can’t help but feel Saturday’s show is on pay-per-view only because, to fans and maybe far more importantly, business partners and cable distributors, you get one pass. Bellator got that pass last time, when it canceled its original first pay-per-view at the last minute when Tito Ortiz was injured, eliminating the heavily promoted main event with Rampage Jackson. The show was moved to television. The same thing happened here, with Alvarez’s injury, taking the main event off the show. But if they canceled twice in a row, Bellator becomes, to the pay-per-view providers, the boy who cried wolf.
It’s absolutely a strong show for Bellator.
Of the five fights scheduled, four of them could viably headline a Bellator Friday night show. Jackson vs. Mo could do 1 million viewers on its own if it was on Spike. Chandler vs. Brooks would do well above average numbers. Even Tito Ortiz vs. Alexander Shlemenko, as a television main event, would beat the average. Blagoi Ivanov vs. Alexander Volkov in the heavyweight tournament final is a viable television main event, although not one that would do above average ratings.
So the last two weeks, Jackson and King Mo in a few 11 p.m. time slots have to convince you that they hate each other as much as Jackson and Rashad Evans did years ago, and get you to pay to see them fight while putting out of your minds how Jackson vs. Evans delivered. Somehow, after getting two Alvarez vs. Chandlers for free, and knowing a third is imminent unless Chandler is upset, we have to get excited about Chandler vs. Will Brooks.
And speaking of wolf, in a fight that really defies logic, big light heavyweight Ortiz brings us back to the size mismatch days of Pride, in facing much smaller, and much better Alexander Shlemenko. I’m not sure which fight it was where Ortiz proclaimed he was in the greatest shape of his life and was healthy for the first time since 2002, and then as soon as the fight was over explained that he couldn’t wrestle or spar or train at all because of all his injuries ,that he jumped the shark as a drawing card. It’s happened so many times that his saying how great he feels this week sounds like the beginning of a Jay Leno monologue.
The only thing that remotely makes sense here, is that they are hoping that either Ortiz, at 39, after more retirements than Leno, can somehow get resurrected and be worthy of his huge paycheck by winning against a guy much smaller, and people will buy it, and want to see him face Rampage or Mo. Or, more likely, that somehow Shlemenko, the company’s middleweight champion, will increase his value by the notoriety he’d get for beating Ortiz, as if that is an exclusive club.
This was a tough sell for Chandler vs. Alvarez as the main event, but at least there was a hook in the sense it was the deciding fight of the greatest in-cage trilogy ever in the U.S. With Alvarez out, the hook is buying Rampage vs. Mo, or if you’ve got nostalgia to see Ortiz. Given the success of the post-UFC resurrections of Ken Shamrock, I’m not holding my breath on that one.
Back in 2000, when the Fertitta Brothers started talking with Bob Meyrowitz about purchasing the UFC, the big question was, What exactly were they buying?
Meyrowitz had sold most of the company tangible assets in an attempt to keep the company alive. Lorenzo Fertitta years later noted, what they were buying, was three letters.
That $2 million check for a small percentage of the alphabet has paid dividends perhaps 1,000 times over for he and his brother.
As far as the value goes of the letters, in the 20-plus years that MMA has existed in the U.S. and Japan, something like 26 companies have tried pay-per-view. And in the end, 25 have ultimately failed in that arena.
There are all kinds of initials from CFFC, to MARS, to WFA, to EFC, WCC, KOTC, Ultimate Chaos, Yamma, Bodog and others far more forgettable. There were even companies that at one time were significant historically like Pride, Pancrase and Strikeforce. In common was unless you had the initials, ultimately, you never did big numbers, and ultimately didn’t survive on pay-per-view. What was important is that company after company built their business around a plan that included rich eggs from a golden goose that wasn’t nearly as golden as it looked from afar.
On Saturday, Bellator tries to join the small side of that ledger with its second attempt at a first impression.
What’s notable is, unlike all the others, whose business plan was based on a big score pay-per-view, Bellator has a completely different business model. It’s a television product owned by Viacom. Unlike most of the others, if Saturday’s show doesn’t do well, they’re still in business and running shows every Friday night in the fall. Little changes, except perhaps some, or a lot, of money is lost, a lesson may be learned and some egos may be quietly bruised.
There are arguments why Bellator could succeed on pay-per-view, and others why it can’t.
Why it could is that Bellator has a weekly television vehicle that can reach anywhere from 500,000 viewers on a show where the headliners are names that may as well have come from the witness protection program based on how well known they are, to 900,000 viewers with names that were once stars in UFC or were named Eddie Alvarez or Michael Chandler. The main events frequently top 1 million viewers. In theory, if this show was on Spike, it would probably do well in excess of 1 million viewers. So the mentality is, if you can get only 20 percent of those people to buy, you’ve hit a home run, and even 10 percent is a good showing to build from..
That’s a takeoff on the mentality that led the dirty dozens into bankruptcy.
We know there are a million people who are MMA fans that will buy pay-per-view, because Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz in 2006 showed us that. Whenever UFC has something really big, it can threaten or even beat that number. So if we can only get one out of ten of those fans to sample our show, we’ll be rich. That math sounds great, but real life is more complex than percentage of UFC’s big show numbers, or percentages of your television viewers.
Bellator’s sister promotion, TNA wrestling, which has both of Saturday’s main eventers, King Mo Lawal and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson under contract, even though neither has appeared on its show in months, does anywhere between 1 million and 1.5 million viewers every Thursday for free. When they go to pay-per-view, they’re getting maybe one percent of those people, not 20 percent.
Another reason it may not work is that Bellator this week has to make viewers overcome a huge psychological hurdle.
When viewers see your product as something that you don’t pay for, they are going to believe it isn’t worth paying for. UFC is already having that problem. The more free product there is on television, the harder it is to convince their audience to pay for it, unless it’s something really big. And UFC has protected its top stars, in the sense going forward, I don’t think you’ll be seeing Cain Velasquez, Jon Jones, Chris Weidman or Ronda Rousey defend their championships on free television.
Bellator has been a free product. Every star and every championship match has been given to the public free of charge. Asking them to then believe the product is something that they should pay for is going to only result in a push back, because Bellator has already established a price and a worth for its biggest fights. I saw Eddie Alvarez and Michael Chandler fight twice, and it gets no better than that, and it cost me nothing. Why should I pay to see Chandler face Will Brooks?
It’s the same mentality of why pay-per-view worked in the U.S. and Canada, but in other markets, like Japan and Mexico, it never really caught on.
The three stars of pay-per-view are boxing, pro wrestling and MMA. In the U.S., for as long as anyone can remember, the big boxing matches, whether it was Ali, Sugar Ray Leonard, Mike Tyson, Oscar De La Hoya or Floyd Mayweather Jr., were something you paid for. Before pay-per-view existed, you had to go to your local auditorium and watch it on a big screen. Pay-per-view was just a more convenient way to pay money than the old way. In pro wrestling, television promoted the big match, but before pay-per-view, you had to go to your local arena and pay to see it. After that, pay-per-view was a natural transition. UFC itself started on pay-per-view in 1993, and didn’t even get on regular television until 2005.
In Japan and Mexico, Ali fights were on network television live. The biggest pro wrestling matches were live and free in prime time on the networks. Pay-per-view did work to a degree, but as big as wrestling and combat sports were in Japanese society, it never worked like in the U.S. Mexico is the same situation. They always had their big boxing matches and big wrestling matches for free. Paying money for a big fight, even though boxing and wrestling are far bigger culturally than the U.S., never caught on to any significant level.
I can’t help but feel Saturday’s show is on pay-per-view only because, to fans and maybe far more importantly, business partners and cable distributors, you get one pass. Bellator got that pass last time, when it canceled its original first pay-per-view at the last minute when Tito Ortiz was injured, eliminating the heavily promoted main event with Rampage Jackson. The show was moved to television. The same thing happened here, with Alvarez’s injury, taking the main event off the show. But if they canceled twice in a row, Bellator becomes, to the pay-per-view providers, the boy who cried wolf.
It’s absolutely a strong show for Bellator.
Of the five fights scheduled, four of them could viably headline a Bellator Friday night show. Jackson vs. Mo could do 1 million viewers on its own if it was on Spike. Chandler vs. Brooks would do well above average numbers. Even Tito Ortiz vs. Alexander Shlemenko, as a television main event, would beat the average. Blagoi Ivanov vs. Alexander Volkov in the heavyweight tournament final is a viable television main event, although not one that would do above average ratings.
So the last two weeks, Jackson and King Mo in a few 11 p.m. time slots have to convince you that they hate each other as much as Jackson and Rashad Evans did years ago, and get you to pay to see them fight while putting out of your minds how Jackson vs. Evans delivered. Somehow, after getting two Alvarez vs. Chandlers for free, and knowing a third is imminent unless Chandler is upset, we have to get excited about Chandler vs. Will Brooks.
And speaking of wolf, in a fight that really defies logic, big light heavyweight Ortiz brings us back to the size mismatch days of Pride, in facing much smaller, and much better Alexander Shlemenko. I’m not sure which fight it was where Ortiz proclaimed he was in the greatest shape of his life and was healthy for the first time since 2002, and then as soon as the fight was over explained that he couldn’t wrestle or spar or train at all because of all his injuries ,that he jumped the shark as a drawing card. It’s happened so many times that his saying how great he feels this week sounds like the beginning of a Jay Leno monologue.
The only thing that remotely makes sense here, is that they are hoping that either Ortiz, at 39, after more retirements than Leno, can somehow get resurrected and be worthy of his huge paycheck by winning against a guy much smaller, and people will buy it, and want to see him face Rampage or Mo. Or, more likely, that somehow Shlemenko, the company’s middleweight champion, will increase his value by the notoriety he’d get for beating Ortiz, as if that is an exclusive club.
This was a tough sell for Chandler vs. Alvarez as the main event, but at least there was a hook in the sense it was the deciding fight of the greatest in-cage trilogy ever in the U.S. With Alvarez out, the hook is buying Rampage vs. Mo, or if you’ve got nostalgia to see Ortiz. Given the success of the post-UFC resurrections of Ken Shamrock, I’m not holding my breath on that one.
Saturday night of upsets ended up as one of UFC’s more crowd friendly shows of the year, even though it didn’t have a lineup filled with top name fighters. Matt Brown, the biggest star who emerged out of the show, went from a fighter who was lucky to have not been cut three years ago, to someone who could be booked in a title fight tomorrow with little complaining.
Saturday night was the perfect example of why MMA is so completely unpredictable.
It wasn’t just that nine of 13 favorites going in went down to defeat, making all of us who predict results look foolish. It’s that whenever you see an event low on big names, there is an expectation that it won’t be good. Nobody was really dying to see the show, and even Dana White noted disappointment with a smaller than expected crowd for the company’s first show in Cincinnati since 2007.
Among all of the Fight Pass shows, and Saturday’s somewhat low key Fight Night, the shows that look the weakest when it came to star power delivered some of the best action of the year.
The latest episode features interviews with Matt Brown, Mark Hunt, Travis Browne, Eddie Alvarez, Chuck Mindenhall, and more.
The main event had two different reactions. The first is the marquee reaction, in the sense that neither fighter had a history of main events. The second is, the way the two matched up, the fight going in looked like it could be something.
And it was that plus more.
The big talking point coming out of the show was where Matt Brown vs. Erick Silva ranked in the pantheon of great UFC fights. I felt it more like a potential fight-of-the-year as opposed to an all-time great match. After midway through the first round, it was a one-sided fight where the main drama was how much punishment could an exhausted Silva take before the fight was going to be stopped. But as a television main event, it may lead the pack in a 2014 list.
This year’s most exciting fights, with the exception of Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler (UFC 171 main event) and Abel Trujillo vs. Jamie Varner (UFC 169 pay-per-view fight), were bouts that not a lot of people have seen. It’s been unlikely fights with little known names, airing on Fight Pass–Yui Chul Nam vs. Kazuki Tokudome on a Fight Pass card from China; Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Tarec Saffiedine on a similar show in Singapore, and the already forgotten Ray Borg vs. Dustin Ortiz fight which was a Fight Pass prelim from the Apr. 19 show from Orlando.
As much as you could criticize the idea of it for a main event as far as top-ranked fighters, you could also envision the fireworks as soon as Brown vs. Silva was announced. Silva is known for explosiveness and quick finishes. Five of his seven prior UFC fights ended up the first round. The other two, both losses, to Jon Fitch and Dong Hyun-Kim, were all you could hope for when it comes to excitement, and that was against opponents who weren’t exactly known for having the most exciting bouts.
The new Matt Brown (19-11), the guy who was reborn in 2012, had finished five of his previous six opponents and working on one of the longer winning streaks in UFC history. He was ranked higher than Silva, but the odds makers had labeled him the underdog. He was also the one closest to a championship shot with a win. A back injury had kept him out of a fight with Carlos Condit that either would have ended the streak or put him in the forefront of contenders.
When the night was over, Silva proved he was ridiculously tough. Brown brought forth memories of the old-fashioned hard-nosed fighters of another era, like Don Frye. He survived the kind of paralyzing body shots that almost always end fights, particularly a barrage after a shot in the first minute. Brown then rewarded referee Herb Dean’s decision not to stop it when it looked bleak.
With his seventh win in a row, Brown is tied for ninth place on the all-time UFC list. Of active fighters, he’s tied with bantamweight champion Renan Barao, and behind only Jon Jones, with 11. Georges St-Pierre, if he does fight again, will come back with a 12-fight winning streak. St-Pierre, Barao and Jones are three of the best fighters the sport has ever seen. Brown, on the other hand, is still looking for his first day in the top five in his division.
Still, as hard as it is to win seven straight, and it’s a great time to jump on the Brown bandwagon, there are a few points that need to sober one up.
First is the list of victims. Before Silva, the list included Chris Cope, Stephen Thompson, Luis Ramos, Mike Swick, Jordan Mein and Mike Pyle. And while it’s Thompson’s only career loss, nobody on that list with the exception of Silva was within an arm’s reach of the top ten. And even though Brown, in trying to push himself as a top contender after beating Pyle, by saying Pyle was better than St-Pierre, Pyle has always been a gym legend who never seemed as good in competition.
If Saturday night’s main event between Matt Brown and Erick Silva was the new “fight of the ages,” then it came at just the right time.
In addition, while the seven in a row club in UFC history includes people like Chuck Liddell, Benson Henderson and Cain Velasquez, it also includes Jim Miller, who has never gotten over the hump to be a No. 1 contender, and George Sotiropolous, who with hindsight, is a name who looks all wrong in that company, so it’s not a guarantee someone is a title contender yet.
A few fights back, when Brown started talking about a title match, the reaction was more like who is he kidding. Today, nobody snickers at that notion.
But what we really have is an always entertaining fighter, and a great story. He battled back from drug issues. He had a 12-11 record at the end of 2011, at the age of 30, coming off losing four out of five fights, all by submission. It’s unusual for someone on that kind of a streak to even remain in UFC.
Now, he could be put in a title fight tomorrow, at 33, with few complaints, coming off this win. But welterweight is a loaded division. With a slew of contenders, and champion Hendricks on the shelf until the fall due to surgery to repair a torn biceps, Brown is probably not getting near a title fight without a signature top-five win.
Let’s run down how Saturday night changes the Fortunes for Five of the stars of the show.
MATT BROWN – The way the welterweight division looks, the winner of the June 14 Tyron Woodley (13-2) vs. Rory MacDonald (16-2) fight seems to have the inside track to face Hendricks. But a boring fight, or unimpressive win, could change things, and there is always the injury situation. Brown’s big test would look to be against the winner of the May 24 fight with Lawler (22-10) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-7). Two other possible opponents would be Hector Lombard (34-4-1) or Dong Hyun Kim (19-2-1).
Lombard, having completely dominated Jake Shields, would be a strong enough win to justify a title shot. Lombard looks to be far stronger as a grappler, but Brown’s edge, as he showed in the Silva fight, of keeping a fast pace, could help him past round two, since the muscular Lombard has faded in long fights.
If he’s against the Lawler-Ellenberger winner, a win there, unless St-Pierre opts to ask for a title shot for his return, would have a good chance of getting him his title fight.
ERICK SILVA – With his youngish look, and tremendous finishes, Silva looked like one of the best welterweight prospects to come along when he faced Jon Fitch two years ago. Even though he lost the decision, he did well enough against the longtime No. 2 man in the division that it was felt his day would come.
But he’s now almost 30, and has a 4-4 UFC record. Granted, that’s a little misleading there was a disqualification loss in a fight he looked to have finished in seconds. But in every UFC fight that has gotten out of the first round, he’s lost. He should try and get Kim, who knocked him out on Oct. 9, because he looked on the verge of winning there until the finish. But UFC may not want to book a rematch so soon. But he’s in a position where he’s probably not going to get any other top guy. And anyone who isn’t a top guy isn’t going to help him much with a win. Perhaps Saffiedine (15-3), who has been battling a series of injuries of late, would be the most viable option, but Silva is coming off a loss and Saffiedine is coming off a win.
NIK LENTZ – Lentz (27-6-2, 1 no contest), the former wrestler at the University of Minnesota, is still having to live down a reputation as a boring fighter from a 2010 victory over Andre Winner. He was cut a year later, but nobody knew it, since he returned as a short-notice replacement fight almost immediately. Once moving to featherweight, he has only lost once, to top contender Chad Mendes.
He won all three rounds from former title contender Manny Gamburyan (16-9, 1 no contest). Even ranked as the No. 9 contender coming in, he was still relegated to the Fight Pass portion of the show.
His stand-up game has evolved greatly, and he had one of the most exciting bouts on the card. He claimed he’s better than No. 9, and came out and issued a challenge to everyone ranked ahead of him. With the other top fighters in the division tied up, his best shot would be to get either Clay Guida (31-14) or Dustin Poirier (16-3) next.
COSTAS PHILIPPOU – After only lasting 2:31 against Luke Rockhold on Jan. 15 in a television main event, Philippou, at 34, talked retirement.
“I reached a point where I was doubtful if I still wanted to fight,” he said.
“Two fights ago, I spent 12 of 15 minutes laying on my back. The last fight was even worse. I got knocked out for the first time in my life. I started doubting I could keep doing what I was doing.”
But he was told to quit feeling sorry for himself. “My coaches told me to put on my big boy pants and fight.”
He did just that. He and Lorenz Larkin went back-and-forth, with Larkin landing solid shots, but Philippou, who physically looked much stronger than in January, was hitting harder and ended the fight in the first round.
Where he goes next is a tougher situation. He’s unlikely to get the top tier with two losses in three fights. Yoel Romero (8-1) could be an opponent, but he’d have to improve his wrestling to survive that. Thales Leites (23-4) isn’t the wrestler Romero is, and that could be the striker vs. grappler type match-up that would depend on whether the Leites takedown game works.
DARON CRUICKSHANK – Cruickshank (15-4) scored his biggest career win over Erik Koch, to move his UFC record to 5-2.
Cruickshank, who came off season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter, has been a guy who seemingly has the tools, a diverse striking game with wrestling. When he wins, he looks like the “Detroit Superstar” he professes to be. But he’s yet to get past being just a guy in the deep lightweight pack. He came into Saturday looking to be a guy to build Koch’s climb after moving up from being a featherweight contender.
The upset win causes a reevaluation, but he’s still a few wins past answering the questions regarding if he can continue to fight like he did Saturday, and like he has in several of his wins, against more viable opponents.
Saturday night of upsets ended up as one of UFC’s more crowd friendly shows of the year, even though it didn’t have a lineup filled with top name fighters. Matt Brown, the biggest star who emerged out of the show, went from a fighter who was lucky to have not been cut three years ago, to someone who could be booked in a title fight tomorrow with little complaining.
Saturday night was the perfect example of why MMA is so completely unpredictable.
It wasn’t just that nine of 13 favorites going in went down to defeat, making all of us who predict results look foolish. It’s that whenever you see an event low on big names, there is an expectation that it won’t be good. Nobody was really dying to see the show, and even Dana White noted disappointment with a smaller than expected crowd for the company’s first show in Cincinnati since 2007.
Among all of the Fight Pass shows, and Saturday’s somewhat low key Fight Night, the shows that look the weakest when it came to star power delivered some of the best action of the year.
The latest episode features interviews with Matt Brown, Mark Hunt, Travis Browne, Eddie Alvarez, Chuck Mindenhall, and more.
The main event had two different reactions. The first is the marquee reaction, in the sense that neither fighter had a history of main events. The second is, the way the two matched up, the fight going in looked like it could be something.
And it was that plus more.
The big talking point coming out of the show was where Matt Brown vs. Erick Silva ranked in the pantheon of great UFC fights. I felt it more like a potential fight-of-the-year as opposed to an all-time great match. After midway through the first round, it was a one-sided fight where the main drama was how much punishment could an exhausted Silva take before the fight was going to be stopped. But as a television main event, it may lead the pack in a 2014 list.
This year’s most exciting fights, with the exception of Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler (UFC 171 main event) and Abel Trujillo vs. Jamie Varner (UFC 169 pay-per-view fight), were bouts that not a lot of people have seen. It’s been unlikely fights with little known names, airing on Fight Pass–Yui Chul Nam vs. Kazuki Tokudome on a Fight Pass card from China; Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Tarec Saffiedine on a similar show in Singapore, and the already forgotten Ray Borg vs. Dustin Ortiz fight which was a Fight Pass prelim from the Apr. 19 show from Orlando.
As much as you could criticize the idea of it for a main event as far as top-ranked fighters, you could also envision the fireworks as soon as Brown vs. Silva was announced. Silva is known for explosiveness and quick finishes. Five of his seven prior UFC fights ended up the first round. The other two, both losses, to Jon Fitch and Dong Hyun-Kim, were all you could hope for when it comes to excitement, and that was against opponents who weren’t exactly known for having the most exciting bouts.
The new Matt Brown (19-11), the guy who was reborn in 2012, had finished five of his previous six opponents and working on one of the longer winning streaks in UFC history. He was ranked higher than Silva, but the odds makers had labeled him the underdog. He was also the one closest to a championship shot with a win. A back injury had kept him out of a fight with Carlos Condit that either would have ended the streak or put him in the forefront of contenders.
When the night was over, Silva proved he was ridiculously tough. Brown brought forth memories of the old-fashioned hard-nosed fighters of another era, like Don Frye. He survived the kind of paralyzing body shots that almost always end fights, particularly a barrage after a shot in the first minute. Brown then rewarded referee Herb Dean’s decision not to stop it when it looked bleak.
With his seventh win in a row, Brown is tied for ninth place on the all-time UFC list. Of active fighters, he’s tied with bantamweight champion Renan Barao, and behind only Jon Jones, with 11. Georges St-Pierre, if he does fight again, will come back with a 12-fight winning streak. St-Pierre, Barao and Jones are three of the best fighters the sport has ever seen. Brown, on the other hand, is still looking for his first day in the top five in his division.
Still, as hard as it is to win seven straight, and it’s a great time to jump on the Brown bandwagon, there are a few points that need to sober one up.
First is the list of victims. Before Silva, the list included Chris Cope, Stephen Thompson, Luis Ramos, Mike Swick, Jordan Mein and Mike Pyle. And while it’s Thompson’s only career loss, nobody on that list with the exception of Silva was within an arm’s reach of the top ten. And even though Brown, in trying to push himself as a top contender after beating Pyle, by saying Pyle was better than St-Pierre, Pyle has always been a gym legend who never seemed as good in competition.
If Saturday night’s main event between Matt Brown and Erick Silva was the new “fight of the ages,” then it came at just the right time.
In addition, while the seven in a row club in UFC history includes people like Chuck Liddell, Benson Henderson and Cain Velasquez, it also includes Jim Miller, who has never gotten over the hump to be a No. 1 contender, and George Sotiropolous, who with hindsight, is a name who looks all wrong in that company, so it’s not a guarantee someone is a title contender yet.
A few fights back, when Brown started talking about a title match, the reaction was more like who is he kidding. Today, nobody snickers at that notion.
But what we really have is an always entertaining fighter, and a great story. He battled back from drug issues. He had a 12-11 record at the end of 2011, at the age of 30, coming off losing four out of five fights, all by submission. It’s unusual for someone on that kind of a streak to even remain in UFC.
Now, he could be put in a title fight tomorrow, at 33, with few complaints, coming off this win. But welterweight is a loaded division. With a slew of contenders, and champion Hendricks on the shelf until the fall due to surgery to repair a torn biceps, Brown is probably not getting near a title fight without a signature top-five win.
Let’s run down how Saturday night changes the Fortunes for Five of the stars of the show.
MATT BROWN – The way the welterweight division looks, the winner of the June 14 Tyron Woodley (13-2) vs. Rory MacDonald (16-2) fight seems to have the inside track to face Hendricks. But a boring fight, or unimpressive win, could change things, and there is always the injury situation. Brown’s big test would look to be against the winner of the May 24 fight with Lawler (22-10) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-7). Two other possible opponents would be Hector Lombard (34-4-1) or Dong Hyun Kim (19-2-1).
Lombard, having completely dominated Jake Shields, would be a strong enough win to justify a title shot. Lombard looks to be far stronger as a grappler, but Brown’s edge, as he showed in the Silva fight, of keeping a fast pace, could help him past round two, since the muscular Lombard has faded in long fights.
If he’s against the Lawler-Ellenberger winner, a win there, unless St-Pierre opts to ask for a title shot for his return, would have a good chance of getting him his title fight.
ERICK SILVA – With his youngish look, and tremendous finishes, Silva looked like one of the best welterweight prospects to come along when he faced Jon Fitch two years ago. Even though he lost the decision, he did well enough against the longtime No. 2 man in the division that it was felt his day would come.
But he’s now almost 30, and has a 4-4 UFC record. Granted, that’s a little misleading there was a disqualification loss in a fight he looked to have finished in seconds. But in every UFC fight that has gotten out of the first round, he’s lost. He should try and get Kim, who knocked him out on Oct. 9, because he looked on the verge of winning there until the finish. But UFC may not want to book a rematch so soon. But he’s in a position where he’s probably not going to get any other top guy. And anyone who isn’t a top guy isn’t going to help him much with a win. Perhaps Saffiedine (15-3), who has been battling a series of injuries of late, would be the most viable option, but Silva is coming off a loss and Saffiedine is coming off a win.
NIK LENTZ – Lentz (27-6-2, 1 no contest), the former wrestler at the University of Minnesota, is still having to live down a reputation as a boring fighter from a 2010 victory over Andre Winner. He was cut a year later, but nobody knew it, since he returned as a short-notice replacement fight almost immediately. Once moving to featherweight, he has only lost once, to top contender Chad Mendes.
He won all three rounds from former title contender Manny Gamburyan (16-9, 1 no contest). Even ranked as the No. 9 contender coming in, he was still relegated to the Fight Pass portion of the show.
His stand-up game has evolved greatly, and he had one of the most exciting bouts on the card. He claimed he’s better than No. 9, and came out and issued a challenge to everyone ranked ahead of him. With the other top fighters in the division tied up, his best shot would be to get either Clay Guida (31-14) or Dustin Poirier (16-3) next.
COSTAS PHILIPPOU – After only lasting 2:31 against Luke Rockhold on Jan. 15 in a television main event, Philippou, at 34, talked retirement.
“I reached a point where I was doubtful if I still wanted to fight,” he said.
“Two fights ago, I spent 12 of 15 minutes laying on my back. The last fight was even worse. I got knocked out for the first time in my life. I started doubting I could keep doing what I was doing.”
But he was told to quit feeling sorry for himself. “My coaches told me to put on my big boy pants and fight.”
He did just that. He and Lorenz Larkin went back-and-forth, with Larkin landing solid shots, but Philippou, who physically looked much stronger than in January, was hitting harder and ended the fight in the first round.
Where he goes next is a tougher situation. He’s unlikely to get the top tier with two losses in three fights. Yoel Romero (8-1) could be an opponent, but he’d have to improve his wrestling to survive that. Thales Leites (23-4) isn’t the wrestler Romero is, and that could be the striker vs. grappler type match-up that would depend on whether the Leites takedown game works.
DARON CRUICKSHANK – Cruickshank (15-4) scored his biggest career win over Erik Koch, to move his UFC record to 5-2.
Cruickshank, who came off season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter, has been a guy who seemingly has the tools, a diverse striking game with wrestling. When he wins, he looks like the “Detroit Superstar” he professes to be. But he’s yet to get past being just a guy in the deep lightweight pack. He came into Saturday looking to be a guy to build Koch’s climb after moving up from being a featherweight contender.
The upset win causes a reevaluation, but he’s still a few wins past answering the questions regarding if he can continue to fight like he did Saturday, and like he has in several of his wins, against more viable opponents.