This is the big one, folks. The UFC brings its biggest show of the year and a referendum of sorts to its fastest rising star from Ireland. The card also features a welterweight title bout and a slew of other important contests for the UFC’s biggest and most important divisions.
Will Conor McGregor silence all the doubters or is Chad Mendes about to secure a third crack at Jose Aldo? I answer these questions and more with my predictions for Saturday’s fights.
What: UFC 189: Mendes vs. McGregor
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Saturday, the two-fight Fight Pass card starts at 7 p.m. ET, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 main card starts at 8 p.m. and the five-fight pay-per-view card kicks off 10 p.m.
Chad Mendes vs. Conor McGregor
There’s no way to write a pick for this fight without drawing the ire of some invested group. If I pick McGregor, I’ll hear groans about how I’m banking on a fighter who hasn’t proven anything against the precise kind of competition that matters. If I pick Mendes, I’ll hear complaints that I overlooked an obviously ready, demonstrably good fighter because of some sort of prejudice, even one I’m not aware I have. There’s no way to win here.
So, here’s what I’m going to do. I’m going to make two claims and try to split the difference.
The first is that I am ready to believe in McGregor. The argument that he earned his way through his mouth is partly true and also unfair, almost beside the point. McGregor is an elite talent, period. His striking is effortless and rests in motions that are equal parts sadistic and artistic. He’s far more of a technician than he’s ever given credit. Perhaps most importantly, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fighter who demonstrates the power of the mind better than him. He lies to himself – e.g., Mendes is no good, this weight cut isn’t bad – but in so doing, produces truth in outcomes. This talk of whether McGregor is in his opponent’s heads is completely misplaced. The real trick to McGregor’s game is not whether he affects his opponents, but how fortified his own mind is against the elements: against the punishing drain of weight cuts, against the honest negativity one’s own mind raises when experiencing suffering or pain or otherwise understandable doubt. McGregor’s mind offers refuge to exactly none of it. It’s truly something to behold and part of the way he’s able to make himself so studiously improve. With good (not great) athleticism and unparalleled mental focus that transforms into unflappable self-determination, he wills himself to new heights. McGregor is the undisputed king of mind over matter. He is bulletproof in that regard.
The second claim, however, is one of evidence. I can only make judgements based on what is known or available. We work in this space with incomplete information, admittedly, but it’s all we have. The available evidence at present doesn’t tell me much about McGregor’s ability to handle elite wrestling pressure. Mendes’ game is more complex than just a takedown threat and it may very well be true McGregor’s reach and defensive wrestling have improved enough to neutralize the more complete offensive threat Mendes offers. At I write this, however, there doesn’t exist enough evidence to say that claim is irrefutably true. It could be true, of course, but that would be nothing more than a wager or leap of faith. If you believe in McGregor’s chances in this contest, I take no issue with it so long as you admit the gaps in McGregor’s resume are real.
That’s why this fight is so utterly critical. This should be the contest that either affirms the doubts about McGregor or crushes them altogether. It’s the fight I need to see to know whether those aforementioned gaps are significant or merely in transition, waiting to be filled out as a matter of routine. Until that happens, though, I’m going to side with the known commodity. Mendes’ speed, explosive ability to distance close, chain wrestle, ground and pound, win scrambles to the back and move in and out of distance are things we’ve seen against all manner of elite opposition. I can’t say the same for McGregor, at least not yet.
Pick: Mendes
Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald
This one is going to be super close and should be a fantastic fight. This time around I’m going to side with the Canadian. It’s a bit of a gamble because it presumes the ability to secure the takedown intermittently is going to be there for him. Lawler’s takedown defense since their first fight has gotten even better, so I’m a little uneasy about it. But I also believe MacDonald’s flaws are somewhat overstated. He’s learned on the job in a very visible way, which has made his few shortcomings more magnified than they should be. I believe he’ll able to work from behind the jab while slowing Lawler down, ultimately mixing in other portions of his offense, e.g. clinch work or takedowns. Lawler’s power and ability to wreak havoc in an instant make him always dangerous, but perhaps it’s the Canadian’s time to shine.
Pick: MacDonald
Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens
Bermudez’s hustle is probably going to be too much for Stephens. Yes, Stephens packs a serious punch and can even offensively wrestle somewhat, but not better than Bermudez, especially not in scrambles. If need be, Bermudez can usually take a big punch and recover. More than anything, though, I like Bermudez’s pace to wear down Stephens, who was simply unable to make weight. I look to Bermudez to kickbox just enough to make room for his wrestling where a steady grind of ground and pound mixed with positional advancement will make Stephens wilt.
Pick: Bermudez
Gunnar Nelson vs. Brandon Thatch
This is an extremely close contest, one where a case can be cobbled together in advance for either fighter winning. I’m going to side with the American this time. While I’m worried he’s going to give Nelson the space he needs to move, I don’t think that’ll be enough for the Iceland native even if Thatch does. Thatch is significantly bigger than Nelson and provided he doesn’t gas, should be able to ward off Nelson’s wrestling. If he can put this fight in boxing range, he is much more explosive and powerful than Nelson. Nelson’s ability to move in the bigger Octagon is critical for his success and Thatch could very well let him roam, but I’m betting he’s going to corner Nelson enough to win two of three rounds.
Pick: Thatch
Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida
Almeida’s hittable for a variety of reasons, not least of which is his time spent in the pocket throwing multi-shot combinations. With small gloves and a bit of desperation, his time spent there allows him to be countered. But all things being equal, I like Almeida’s hand speed, striking diversity and “me first” approach to attacking to carry him to victory. Pickett is a hell of a competitor and should have some of the zip and pop he lost at flyweight now that he’s back at bantamweight, but he’s also older and doesn’t quite have the same reflexes or quick adjustments he used to. Almeida’s much younger and does. That’s enough to make the winning difference.
Pick: Almeida
From the preliminary card:
Matt Brown def. Tim Means
Alex Garcia def. Mike Swick
John Howard def. Cathal Pendred
Cody Garbrandt def. Henry Briones
Louis Smolka def. Neil Seery
Yosdenis Cedeno def. Cody Pfister
