Author: Luke Thomas

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Is tonight the biggest fight in UFC history? It’s certainly the biggest rematch, surpassing the second fight between Randy Couture and Pedro Rizzo, the rematch between Couture and Chuck Liddell and arguably a notch above Brock Lesnar’s second fight with Frank Mir. As for the original question, I can buy the idea this particular main event is the biggest UFC fight ever. The event itself, however, will probably fall short of UFC 100 and perhaps even UFC 116 in terms of being a pay-per-view draw.

Interestingly, much of the promotion has happened in the absence of UFC President Dana White. While he hasn’t been entirely absent, his presence has been less ubiquitous. I don’t know if that’s by accident or design, but maybe that’s all for the best. White won’t always be around to buoy shows with his presence and panache. UFC learning how to promote without him (or with less of him) isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

The only risk the UFC faces here is falling short of expected returns. MMA is no longer in the boom market that lasted through 2010. UFC 148 has also been an organ donor of sorts to other UFC events in close proximity that needed fights after key participants on those fight cards were injured. And UFC’s television partner in FOX was noticeably and inexplicably missing in helping to promote this event. If UFC 148 is to cross the coveted one million pay-per-view marker, it will have done so in a cooled market and without real assistance from a television group White once dubbed ‘the best partners’ the UFC has ever had. A big night tonight is a win by UFC, for MMA.

As for the fighters themselves, let’s take a closer look and examine what a win or loss means for them this evening.

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Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

At stake: everything, especially for Sonnen. It’s hard to overstate the stakes here. If this is the biggest fight in UFC history, then there are a near infinite number of ways to unpack all that’s on the line, all that a win or loss means.

The truth, though, is there’s much more to lose here for Sonnen. Should he win tonight, he’ll be a bonafide star. A former journeyman who talked his way to the top while quietly improving his fighting ability along the way to defeating the best fighter the sport has ever seen…and while he’s in his 30s. There is no precedent for something like this in modern combat sports.

On the other hand, should he lose the phenomenon known as Sonnen is effectively over. Sure, he’ll still have fans and a big fight or two, but Sonnen needs an antipode. There is no greater one than the greatest ever. Losing to Silva – especially if it’s particularly one-sided – is losing him as a foil, target and rival. Sonnen’s absurd charade is only effectively offset when contrasted against it’s opposite. Outside of Silva, there is no such person.

It’s fairly obvious what’s in store for Silva if he wins: the status quo. And if he loses, there’s a) a rubber match in store and b) the undeniable reality he’s already achieved quite a bit in the sport. His legacy takes a ding, but not one that alters its fabric.

This is it for Sonnen. Either he wins tonight and achieves one of the most miraculous career turnarounds in MMA history or all of that sound and fury meant little in terms of sporting accomplishment. Tonight is do or die for the Gangster from West Linn, Oregon.

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Grifin

At stake: a last impression. This isn’t Griffin’s final fight, but it is his final fight with Ortiz. Both have been close, the latter one surprisingly so (although I personally didn’t think it was as close as it was scored). While Griffin has clearly peaked as a professional fighter, he’s still competitive with other elite light heavyweights. If he isn’t to retire, beating Ortiz is helpful way to stay in relevant bouts for the short run in however much longer his career continues. It also can’t be bad for self-confidence and personal competitive spirit to take two out of three against a UFC Hall of Famer and the only man Griffin has fought that many times.

Ortiz obviously would like to end his career on a win. And like Griffin, against a fighter with whom he has some history – real or manufactured. This isn’t the Liddell trilogy, but it isn’t a negligible relationship with Griffin either. I get the cosmic sense Ortiz’s win over Ryan Bader was all of the redemption from career difficulty Ortiz was ever going to receive. Asking for it against Griffin seems almost greedy. Still, Ortiz looked physically prepared at yesterday’s weigh-ins. Going out on a high note is clearly a massive priority.

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

At stake: a future. This is more true for Cote than Le. As the former Strikeforce middleweight champion has indicated, tonight could be his last fight and he’d be satisfied with what he’s accomplished in the sport thus far. His acting options have also had to his career fulfillment. Still, he hasn’t declared retirement intentions and certainly wouldn’t want to drop two straights, which coincidentally would be his only two in the UFC. There’s face-saving to be done and a win over Cote – arguably the most legitimate opponent Le has faced – goes a long way toward that end.

Cote has a different set of priorities. At 32, he doesn’t have time to get bounced from the UFC again. If he’s going to do anything of significance in his career again, he’s going to do it now. That may or may not be a title shot, but it can easily be a big paycheck, headlining a smaller UFC event, getting a win over a top-ranked opponent and the like. Beating Le would be a great launching pad if Cote is to do anything of relevancy in MMA again.

Demian Maia vs. Dong Hyun Kim

At stake: relevancy. Both Maia and Kim have fallen on something of hard times. Not ‘being cut from the UFC’ hard times, but something resembling invisibility. For Maia, he’s been in a decision rut – win or lose – at middleweight and is seeking a fresh start. Welterweight is a considerably tougher division, but he’ll ostensibly have some physical size to lord over opposition.

Kim was on a roll up through UFC 125 where he beat Nate Diaz. But the loss to Condit seemed to instantly derail him. He rebounded with a win over Sean Pierson, but needs a name opponent to recapture his lost luster.

Kim is useful for the UFC insofar as their South Korean expansion plans are concerned. A loss here won’t be the end of the world. Maia, too, isn’t performing so poorly he risks losing his job. But each of these fighters need a boost to extract themselves from this career inertia.

Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie

At stake: nothing and something. This fight isn’t meaningless, but only by virtue of any and all fights having some sort of existential value. Short of that, it’s absurd and nonsensical.

Mendes gains little with a win. He’s clearly a superior fighter in virtually every respect and if he can avoid the only true weapon McKenzie possesses (the guillotine), this should be a very manageable affair. A loss, by contrast, would be fairly devastating for Mendes’ young career, although not debilitating.

McKenzie might be able to notch a win here, although I doubt it. I’m told by several professional grapplers his game is not particularly effective against solid competitors at grappling tournaments. If the guillotine-only game of McKenzie doesn’t work at Grapplers Quest, it has no business working over the long haul in the UFC. A win likely only delays in the inevitable for McKenzie. A loss accelerates it, namely, departure from the UFC. There isn’t much more to this bout than that.

Mike Easton vs. Ivan Menjivar

At stake: interim title shot…almost. No, the winner of this bout doesn’t get an interim title shot against the eventual winner of UFC 149’s Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber, but they put themselves close. Easton tells me he’s been informed by UFC management a win over Menjivar (particularly a stoppage win) puts him in top three consideration for a shot.

There are other sorts of pressures here. Menjivar needs to finally put his considerable ability and veteran experience to good use. Easton, too, needs to finally show the UFC bantamweight division what he’s capable of by being more proactive and mixing up his offense. The truth, though, is that this is about laying claim to a bigger fight that will position the winner for an interim bantamweight title opportunity.

The fight card for the UFC’s debut in Nottingham, England – officially UFC on FUEL 5 – continues to fill out. The UFC announced on Thursday the addition of England’s own Tom Watson to their middleweight roster and will have him face ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ season 11 cast member Brad Tavares in his Octagon debut.

Watson, 29, is a long-time staple of the British mixed martial arts regional circuit. He’s a multiple-time Cage Rage and BAMMA veteran and has only professionally competed twice outside of England when he fought a two-bout stint in Canada’s MFC in 2010. He holds notable victories over Murilo Rua, Alex Reid, John Maguire and Matt Horwich.

Tavares, 24, enters this bout having accumulated a UFC record of 3-1. He most recently defeated Dongi Yang at UFC on FUEL 3.

The UFC also announced on Thursday welterweights and U.K. residents John Hathaway and John Maguire have verbally agreed to face one another on that card.

Hathaway, 25, is on a two-fight win streak in the Octagon after suffering his only professional loss against Mike Pyle at UFC 120. He most recently defeated Kris McCray at UFC Fight Night 24 and Pascal Krauss at UFC on FOX 3.

Maguire, 29, is undefeated in his UFC run and will be making his third appearance in the Octagon when he faces Hathaway. Maguire won a unanimous decision victory over Justin Edwards at UFC 138 in his UFC debut and most-recently submitted DeMarques Johnson at UFC on FUEL 2.

Heavyweights Stipe Miocic and Stefan Struve are currently scheduled to headline this event. In addition, Dan Hardy will face Amir Sadollah, Paul Sass will square off against Matt Wiman and Duane Ludwig will fight fellow striker Che Mills.

The closer we get to Saturday and the more we all talk about it, the more we begin to realize just how much is at stake for Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen. That’s particularly true for Sonnen, who can achieve something incredibly special and rare if he emerges victorious at UFC 148. But what if he fails? How will history look back on the career of American Gangster from West Linn, Oregon?

My colleague Shaun Al-Shatti, the driver of the train that is the Morning Report, joins me in this week’s edition of the MMA Roundtable to help sort out that answer. We also address whether Forrest Griffin should retire soon, the UFC’s future in China and so much more.

1) What happens to Chael Sonnen in the short term, and ultimately, what becomes his legacy if he loses on Saturday night?

Shaun: Nothing good. This is the stark corner Chael Sonnen has talked himself into. By now, so much of the intrigue he manufactured revolves solely around his rivalry with Anderson Silva. If Sonnen goes out and loses to Silva for a second time, especially if he loses decisively, an overwhelming amount of that intrigue evaporates into thin air. He’ll be looked at as, for lack of a better word, a choker. A guy who talked a big game, but crumbled when it really mattered.

If he does stumble, in the short term Sonnen will most likely remain a top draw well into his late 30’s — if by virtue of his mouth alone — perhaps relegated to the Rich Franklin career path of high-level gatekeeper and catchweight fights. And in the long term, the history books will still celebrate Sonnen for being Silva’s greatest antagonist.

But athletes’ legacies are inevitably judged by hardware — the rings, the belts, the championships. It’s the thing that separates the legends from the never-made-its. Without any major hardware to call his own, Sonnen will be remembered only as the Karl Malone to Silva’s Michael Jordan, doomed to a lifetime of blood, sweat, and tears marginalized by the wretched preface of, ‘Well, he never won it all.’

Luke: I think Shaun is right that ultimately what’s required to be remembered as a true great and someone of serious accomplishment in sport is the ‘hardware’. Without it, you stand a much better chance to become a footnote, although it’s possible to be a Kenny Florian where you manage to stay in the public eye and be celebrated for previous athletic accomplishments.

However, I’m more bearish on a future where Sonnen fights into his late 30s if he loses on Saturday. Not to suggest he won’t, but that the impact his act produces against Silva will be greatly, greatly diminished. Sure, Sonnen’s legions of followers will trail along with him wherever he goes, but the real effect of Sonnen’s efforts has to be the galvanizing of divergent audiences in the pursuit of something fantastic. Moreover, it’s been that way in the pursuit of what he claims (admittedly, with a healthy dose of shtick) is the tearing down of a facade. Sonnen loses that entire dynamic against anyone else.

Maybe Sonnen is the second-best middleweight in the world, but I’d also suggest part of what’s great about Saturday is how well we know Sonnen matches up with Silva. He doesn’t match as well with others and arguably lost the Michael Bisping fight. I’m not suggesting Sonnen’s career is over if he loses on Saturday, but Sonnen the phenomenon? Either he lives forever with a win on Saturday or dies with a loss.

2) What would be the more compelling storyline, Anderson Silva once again retaining his title or Chael Sonnen finally winning it?

Shaun: It has to be Chael Sonnen finally winning it. We’re on year seven of Anderson Silva’s championship reign, and while witnessing greatness is always a privilege unto itself, the list of remaining contenders is fast dwindling. Aside from Hector Lombard and the winner of Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman, there’s not too many compelling match-ups left out there for Silva.

On the flip side, if Sonnen somehow finishes what he started, the doors to the UFC middleweight division would be blown open. Suddenly every one of Silva’s conquests are viable contenders again. Guys like Vitor Belfort or Rich Franklin who were miles away from another title shot, would be thrust back into the mix. The Bisping’s and Boetsch’s of the world would have a more realistic path to the belt. It could be a decisive moment for the UFC, a chance to inject new storylines into a division that stagnated for years until this blockbuster rivalry came along.

Plus, if anything, a Sonnen victory would inevitably lead to the most legendary run of trash talk ever witnessed, which only gift-wraps the biggest rubber match in the history of mixed martial arts. And I have a hard time saying ‘no’ to a circus like that.

Luke: Shaun is absolutely right. It has to be Sonnen winning the title.

As I argued on The MMA Hour on Tuesday, if Sonnen defeats Silva and completes this improbable journey he’s on, he’ll have done something unheard of in modern combat sports. I’ve been trying to think of similar situations to Sonnen’s and they are few and far between. Ricardo Mayorga earned a bout with Oscar De La Hoya in no small part due to his mouth, but ultimately lost the bout. Not only that, he didn’t have to defeat the murderer’s row of contenders Sonnen has had to wade through to get there. Interestingly, though, Mayorga tested positive for a PED after the De La Hoya bout (in this case, a diuretic), so perhaps he and Sonnen are not to dissimilar.

The point is this. Sonnen has transformed his career not by hook or by crook. It only seems that way. The guy transformed himself from a journeyman to a contender both with his novel approach to promoting, but also by beating one contender after the next. And he did it in his early to mid-thirties. If he wins on Saturday – after coming so close the first time only to lose in heartbreaking defeat – he’ll have pulled off one of the greatest combat sports career turnarounds ever.

3. We know Tito Ortiz is going to retire no matter the outcome on Saturday. If Griffin loses, should he retire as well?

Luke: I don’t think so. Losing to Ortiz would be both unexpected and probably incredibly deflating. And Griffin certainly isn’t getting any younger, but I think it’d be a mistake to end a career off of a single bad performance. Griffin himself has noted he’s probably already peaked in his career; it’s all downhill from here. I wouldn’t dispute that characterization. I would say, however, Griffin is still in his early 30s and still a good competitor in a very tough division. He’ll never contend for the title again, but has incredibly valuable veteran experience and a reasonably well-rounded skill set to test (and ultimately promote) the next wave of light heavyweight top talents.

Griffin also still has value as a name attraction to the UFC. Like his fighting ability, it’s no longer at its peak and we should be careful to not overstate it. But in age where many of the faces and names that carried UFC to its boom cycle after 2005 are retiring, holding on to them while they’re still good for business is a paramount concern. Creating a new generation of stars is not and has not been easy for the UFC. Older, more familiar names are required to hold fan attention. There’s also no better way than to build the stars of tomorrow than to feed them the aging stars of yesterday. It’s a rough business, but that’s what is best for everyone.

Shaun: Not yet, though the end is certainly near. Like Luke noted, Griffin himself has pretty much admitted he’s on the downslope of his career. A loss to Ortiz would be about as discouraging as they come, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him call it quits. At times it may seem like his heart isn’t really in it anymore, although much could just be a side effect of his dry sense of humor.

Regardless, for now, Griffin still has a place in the UFC. He remains a top-15 competitor in a division desperate for new draws. Realistically, at 33 years old, Griffin will remain a star in name only, making him the perfect mid-to-high-level gatekeeper for prospects to cut their teeth on. The list of viable contenders for Jon Jones is running dangerously low, and after Dan Henderson, the new guard will be inevitably be fast-tracked to a title shot. For any Phil Davis or Alexander Gustafsson, snatching a win against a familiar name like Griffin at least lends an air of credibility to that title shot. Moreover, it’s hard to see anyone turning down the kind of money Griffin could make for sticking around for a few more years.

4. The UFC is headed to China for the first time for a UFC on FUEL show. In the next two years, how big can MMA get in China?

Luke: In two years, probably very little. You’ll notice this first event is airing on FUEL for North American audiences and “by numerous UFC television partners around Asia and globally”. UFC has reported deals with various satellite partners that reaches into 450 million homes. But what does that mean in terms of actual viewership? The only deal I’m aware of that they reported signing with a television partner was with Inner Mongolian TV, which is not at all a major player in the Chinese television market. I’m not suggesting UFC doesn’t have reach, but simply citing how many homes you’re in through the constellation of television distributors you have is not evidence the material is being viewed.

And that’s the other part. Macau is most assuredly not mainland China. The UFC is holding their first event there at a casino. Now, they do that all the time stateside, most notably in Las Vegas. But what I’m wondering is whether UFC can go to Shanghai or Beijing and sell out a normal sporting venue. Going to a casino allows UFC to do what Bellator does: push the onus on ticket sales and local promotion to the casino itself. With only one fighter of Chinese origin on the UFC roster, it’s no wonder they had to go to the functional equivalent of neutral territory.

All of this isn’t to suggest even this show in Macau isn’t an incredible feat. It is and it’s also a testament to the power of the UFC machine. All I’m saying is UFC still has a long, long way to go. Let’s be patient as this effort moves along.

Shaun: I’m going to have to agree with Luke in saying that this likely does very little to popularize MMA in China for the short term. The UFC is a marketing giant, to be sure, but it would be reckless to overstate the influence it carries. One-to-two shows a year won’t be enough to win over an audience of over 1.3 billion people, mainland China or not.

Rather, if MMA is going to grow in China, it will likely have to be done from within. In the long run national organizations like RUFF, who have the full strength of the Chinese government behind them, will have far more of an impact nurturing a burgeoning mixed martial arts movement than the folks at Zuffa, who have hundreds of other countries simultaneously vying for their affection.

At best, the UFC can be the distant uncle who comes once a year for Christmas, but brings a cavalcade of goodies with him. It’s fun while it lasts, but once he leaves, you’re left to make due with the resources you had before.

If you’re a fight fan, you have to find a way to dislike Saturday’s main event. It’s rare a single mixed martial arts bout offers so much for fight fans of all varieties and preferences. There’s rivalry, storyline, engaging personalities, a title on the line and much more.

A fight like this also answers questions about the sport and the combatants. Can Silva finally overcome the suffocating wrestling of Sonnen? Is Sonnen the kryptonite for Silva’s style? Will Sonnen achieve the top athletic achievement of his career with a win over the consensus best fighter on the planet? We won’t know until Saturday night, but I do my best to answer these questions about UFC 148.

What: UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II

Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada

When: Saturday, the one-fight Facebook fight starts at 7:30 p.m. ET, the four-fight FX card starts at 8 and the main card on pay-per-view at 10.

Predictions for the six-fight pay-per-view card below.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

If you’re picking Sonnen, I have nothing bad to say about your pick. There’s a ton of good reasons to think he’s going to be the victor on Saturday. But for me, I just can’t help shake the idea Silva’s going to get his way here. I suspect he’s going to manage distance better and be slightly more proactive about hurting Sonnen while they’re on their feet. I admit the fight’s going to be close. And I also believe Silva is going to drop a round or two. Maybe more. But by stoppage or decision, I see Silva making enough adjustments to frustrate and cause problems for Sonnen.

Pick: Silva

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

I’m not saying Griffin is some dynamic powerhouse, but at this point I find it hard to believe he’s going to lose to Ortiz. That’s especially true if Griffin can win the first round, although I suspect he won’t. The numbers show there’s a huge drop off for Ortiz from one round to the next, so even if Ortiz takes the first Griffin simply has to turn it on later. If Griffin can manage range better in this fight and stay on the outside, Ortiz will end up taking desperate shots from a mile away. And really, that’s almost all Griffin needs to do to win.

Pick: Griffin

Demian Maia vs. Dong Hyun Kim

I’m of two minds on this one. When I first heard Maia was dropping to welterweight, I thought it was a terrible idea. I’ve seen Maia up close and the guy is big. To think he’s going to get down to welterweight at this late in his career seems hard to believe without suffering serious performance issues. On the other hand, if he can get down there he can probably get out of this decision rut he’s been stuck in for some time. I’m going to go with my gut on this one and say the cut is too much, too late for Maia.

Pick: Kim

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

Cote packs a solid punch, but is basically a traditional pocket exchanger. That leads me to believe he’s going to have serious difficulty doing much of anything against Le. I’m not a believer that Le vs. Anderson Silva is some sort of meeting of MMA’s best middleweight strikes, but I do think Le’s particular rangey style is problematic for someone who is more of a boxer who stops moving a lot and sits on his punches.

Pick: Le

Mike Easton vs. Ivan Menjivar

I’ve known Easton for quite some time and believe he’s yet to show his best work in the UFC. That’s specifically true as it relates to his punching power. But I worry about this match-up for him. If I have any criticism of Easton, it’s that he’s a slow starter and doesn’t mix up his offense as much as he could. Against a guy like Menjivar, a fighter who is all too happy to dictate the offensive complexion of the fight, that’s going to prove costly. Easton is capable of beating just about anyone at bantamweight, but I get the sense Menjivar’s willingness to be proactive is going to be the difference.

Pick: Menjivar

Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie

Let’s just keep it real one hundred: I give McKenzie absolutely no chance to win whatsoever. Yes, he’s got a pretty incredible guillotine, or at least a pretty incredible ability to get opponents to attempt head outside singles and doubles on him. Either way, I simply cannot see McKenzie scoring a guillotine on Mendes even if he locks it up and Mendes has to fight his way out.

Pick: Mendes

The biggest fight in mixed martial arts this year is upon us. The rematch between UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva and challenger Chael Sonnen is here and there’s so many angles to this bout it boggles the mind. Can Silva make the tactical adjustments to be victorious again, but without taking as much damage? Is Sonnen’s incessant trash talking finally have an effect on the normally calm and collected Silva? How big is this rematch in the history of mixed martial arts rematches?

Join me at 1 p.m. ET to discuss every in and out of this incredible rematch. And not just that, but what is still a strong event in the full fight card of UFC 148. We’ll talk about the last fight of Tito Ortiz, the future of Forrest Griffin, the underrated bout between Mike Easton and Ivan Mejivar and so much more.

Remember, you can login to our ScribbleLive service below with your Twitter or Facebook account. Or you can simply create a username and contribute. The fact is, I don’t care what method you choose to contribute so long as you do.

I’ll talk with you all at 1 p.m. ET.