Author: Luke Thomas

It wasn’t that he wanted to leave fighting or that the UFC asked him to do something else. In fact, no one told Kenny Florian it was time to hang up the gloves and retire. No one, that is, except his body.

“The time was right,” Florian told Ariel Helwani in his first interview since formally announcing his retirement at the weigh-ins for The Ultimate Fighter Live Finale. “It’s something I’ve been thinking about since dealing with this injury. Probably a month or two after I was dealing with this injury – I injured it back in November – and it was just something I started thinking about a couple months after.”

The truth is Florian was hoping for a comeback despite the initial injury in late 2011. He always wanted another fight. Maybe a couple more bouts, and why not? He still loved to train and could compete with most of the best fighters in two weight classes. The former UFC lightweight flatly admits he wasn’t ready to quit the grind even if the grind forced his body into an intractable position.

It wasn’t just the wear and tear over time, although that played a role. But in the process of trying to heal his body and gear it back up for competition, he recently re-aggravated the problem. That, said Florian, was the signal his time as a prizefighter was up.

“I was hoping to get back to training or some sort of regular training schedule and injured it again a few weeks ago. It was just kind of a reminder I had to take it easy for a while. Just with everything else going on, now was the time,” Florian said.

What exactly is the injury that forced ‘KenFlo’ into retirement? A herniated disc in lower back, Florian says.

He had dealt with back pain and injury before during his UFC run. He dropped out of the first Sam Stout fight in 2006 because of a pinched nerve. But as Florian told Helwani, “this one was different.”

“I was getting Sciatica. A numbness and weakness in my right leg, even to my left a little bit.” At first Florian thought the numbness was the result of riding the airdyne bike too long as part of a rehabilitation routine. He ultimately realized the problem was far more serious. The latest re-injury just weeks ago was the final word from his body that this line of work was no longer possible.

Understanding one’s time is up is not the same as being content or at peace with the decision. Florian says he’s known for some time the clock was running out. It’s not a surprise he can’t compete anymore, but that doesn’t make coming to terms with it particularly easy. As he tells it, it’s not just getting a new job. It’s the emotional and psychological ordeal of figuring out who you are, what your identity is and how you find a new way to live your life.

“Man, it’s brutal. It’s extremely difficult,” he said. “You go through a long period of time just really trying to deal with the injury and trying to find some identity outside of training every day and preparing for a fight. There’s something beautiful about having a whole schedule laid out for you and knowing that you have a fight coming up and you’re working towards getting better as a fighter. There were days I literally did not know – was it Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday?”.

“Any time you dedicate your life to something like that, that becomes you,” Florian argued. “That becomes your identity. Looking for something else, there’s a period where you feel lost trying to move towards something else.”

Despite the challenges, Florian readily admits he’s in a more advantageous position that most to transition to something new. In the middle of his fight career, Florian began taking television commentary opportunities on the suggestion of UFC matchmaker Joe Silva. That lead to a call from ESPN to be a part of MMA Live, which in turn lead him to his present position on Fuel TV’s ‘UFC Tonight’ and the UFC commentary B-team alongside Jon Anik.

Those are fortuitous circumstances. So rare, in fact, it naturally leads one to wonder: if he didn’t have the TV gigs to lean on, would he still have quit fighting?

“Did it make it easier [to quit]? Yes,” Florian partially admits. “Would I’ve stuck around to keep doing that? No. I always said if fighting no longer became fun anymore that I would stop doing it. It was still fun, but it was not possible. It’s not fun taking a few minutes to get out of bed, not being able to walk around properly, dealing with pain and all that stuff. That became not fun.”

Florian now has to look ahead to his future on television, but he’s always going to have plenty of his own moments to look back on and enjoy. Two UFC fights in his illustrious career stand out as his personal favorites.

“I like the Clay Guida fight,” Florian confessed. “That was a fun fight. That was coming back after a loss. We had a fun, bloody fight.”

“And the [Takanori] Gomi fight was great just because I looked up so much to Gomi when I was coming up in my career. And the things he did over in Japan, he was the champion over in PRIDE. That was very cool as well.”

For all there is to celebrate in Florian’s achievements, no career is without low lights. Interestingly, Florian is admirably honest with himself when it comes to his shortcomings. When asked about his chances of earning hall of fame status, he is unsure not just because he doesn’t want to seem immodest. Florian candidly said never winning a title hurts his chances.

“I don’t know. I think if I won a title, then for sure I would be. I don’t know, that’s not really for me to decide.”

Whether he enters the hall of fame or not, Florian walks away from the game with an understandable frustration – “I miss training everyday. I’m kind of miserable if I’m not training”. It’s the sort of frustration borne from a fondness for something that was never extinguished.

He isn’t bitter or angry, though. He’s done something he wanted to do it as long as he could physically do it. For the black belt from Boston who initially desired just enough money to put on a gi every day and teach jiu-jitsu classes, the frustration he feels is only a reminder of how much he gave to the pursuit of the game he loved and the career he lived.

“Just being able to compete in the UFC has given me so much,” Florian said. “That’s priceless for sure.”

Can MMA statistics help us predict what will happen in important fights?

Maybe. If they can’t outright predict a single outcome, they can at least give us a sense of how the fight is likely to play out or maybe even look. That’s the premise behind FightMetric’s latest innovation: the MATch Up Analysis, or MATUA simulation engine, which according to FightMetric is “not a true prognostication tool” but “produces a statistical view of upcoming fights that may see things that our eyes do not.”

“The MATUA model harnesses the power of FightMetric’s deep database of statistics to simulate a match based on the two fighters’ past statistical performance. The simulation is run 10,000 times to reduce random chance and then produces the number of simulations in which each fighter won, by what method, and in which round.”

MATUA debuted just prior UFC 146. The first and only bout it has run publicly was for that night’s main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir. Ultimately, MATUA gave UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos a winning percentage of 66% against Mir in 10,000 simulated fights. And as we know, the champ eventually dispatched with Mir in the second round via TKO stoppage, something MATUA had as the second most-likely outcome in a dos Santos victory.

For now, FightMetric isn’t running MATUA on theoretical match-ups. If you’re curious about it says for a Cain Velasquez vs. Alistair Overeem fight, you’ll have to wait until that one is signed and ready to happen. But I was still curious about the numbers and what they can actually tell us fight predictions and even MMA itself. I caught up with the creator of MATUA, John Candido, to find out more.

Below is an excerpted portion of our conversation.

Luke Thomas: How did the idea to create this come about?

John Candido: I had initially talked with Rami [Genauer], the owner of FightMetric, and I’d always been interested in looking under the hood of different sports and things like that to sort of understand the moving parts behind it.

I wanted to see what really mattered in a fight. That’s how my relationship with FightMetric started. Once I got access to all the statistics I started to basically breakdown and model what exactly goes on in a fight; sort of looking at the mechanics behind fights.

Once we were able to do that, then we were able to develop this model which basically takes all those mechanics and is able to use them to simulate exactly how fights play out and what goes down in fights. In doing so, we’re able to sort of see a good percentage of which rounds likely lead to the fight ending in, and also what the typical outcomes are.

Luke Thomas: The description of MATUA states “the simulation is run 10,000 times to reduce random chance”. Why 10,000?

John Candido: To be honest with you, it seems like pretty much the accepted industry number. It really doesn’t have that much statistical significance, specifically the number 10,000. But since that’s what most other people who run these type of simulations are doing, I figured we might as well make it even across the board. It’s easier for the general public to understand it and compare it with some other simulations going on in other sports.

Luke Thomas: The description also says “It is built upon a statistical analysis of every UFC fight of the modern era”. What does that mean, post-UFC 32?

John Candido: I think it was post-UFC 24, if I remember correctly. Whenever the rule change happened. Whenever that happened, it’s all the fights after that.*

Luke Thomas: What’s the extra value add of a simulation engine that we don’t get from other forms of qualitative analysis?

John Candido: Specifically, the engine is driven by a machine running algorithms. A lot of people will look at statistics for upcoming fights and do intuition in their own head about weighting which factors are more valuable, which factors are more predictive of outcomes, and things like that.

What this does is actually put some science to those intuitions. It puts an exact weight based on a lot of different simulations and algorithms and analysis, and actually figures out scientifically what the exact weight of these things are.

So people might think dos Santos has a great chance of knocking Mir out and we know this because a lot of his career has been knockouts, and he’s a very good boxer and the numbers show that. We’re actually able tell you why statistically dos Santos has a larger chance of having an outcome of a knockout. It’s putting exact science to all those guesses that you would typically make when you’re breaking down a fight intuitively or looking over the basic statistics for it.

Luke Thomas: Critics of MMA statistics often say there isn’t enough sample size to make them meaningful. That criticism would apply to MATUA, too. How would you respond to that?

John Candido: It’s not like we’re basing this whole simulation model on dos Santos’ career. Because we’re basically basing it on every fight that’s happened in UFC since the rule change, we’re able to look at the mechanics instead of just an individual fighter’s record.

From the perspective of ‘this guy’s had a pretty good run in the last ten fights’, whether that’s legit or not, yes, and there’s a question there.

But as far as understanding the basics of how MMA works, that’s something I think we’ve pretty solidly nailed. Even though we only have ten fights worth of information, let’s say on a particular fighter to base that off because the sample size is pretty small, the common fan is still doing the same math in their head based on those ten fights anyway.

Yes, because we have smaller sample sizes it’s a little more difficult, but the accuracies at least I’ve run into doing the analysis have been pretty good. It is a smaller sample size, but there is a lot of significance and predictive value to the small sample size because MMA – as a sport to model – lends itself very well to breaking it down statistically and being able to put weights on all the different parts of it.

Luke Thomas: You say you have a sense of how MMA works. How did you come to that position where you have a feeling for the complexion of the sport such that you can run a simulation engine?

John Candido: It’s just basically developing a lot of different variables that reflect or represent a lot of the different types of aspects of the Fight Metric stats. Once we were able to do that, we can put them in a horse race of which variables will perform the best when it comes to predicting different outcomes.

For instance, predicting knockouts for a fight. There’s going to be certain variables that lend themselves more or more heavily weighted that will predict that outcome more often that not. Different variables obviously will be more predictive of different outcomes.

You wrote an article about age. That would be another factor I would put in a horse race with a lot of other factors. Once I run the analysis and the algorithms on those, I’m able to see exactly which ones come out with more predictive value than others do. Once I’m able to do that, I can compare how all the variables stack up against each other. The model is built around that principle: weighing heavily the favorable variables that have a lot of predictive value to them and then ignoring some of the other variables that don’t exactly give us a good idea about who is going to win.

Luke Thomas: Did you learn anything in putting together this model together and figuring out what the favorable predictive variables were? Did you learn something about MMA in the process?

John Candido: Oh, absolutely. Plenty of things jumped out. There were a lot of notions I had going in of what I thought I would find that I was surprised by or taught to look a different way at it.

Just specifically something off the top of my head was finding out how important wrestling was in MMA. That was probably one of the bigger takeaways of developing the model, just breaking down the sport statistically in general. Wrestling is a huge, huge factor and I didn’t expect that as much. I didn’t expect that striking would be such a significant second to wrestling when it came to a lot of the variables.

Luke Thomas: In terms of Mir’s 34% chance of winning, do you believe this is a better reflection of how he’ll do or just that it’s in contrast to what the oddsmakers are suggesting?

	Method of Victory				Round of Stoppage
	KO/TKO	Submission	Decision	Total Wins	1	2	3	4	5
dos Santos	45%	6%	15%	66%	32%	18%	11%	8%	6%
Mir	9%	14%	11%	34%	25%	14%	11%	7%	5%

John Candido: When it comes to odds, that’s a different type of analysis. I wouldn’t necessarily say that reflects something in the odds themselves. I think what the simulation does more is allow us to see more of how the fight plays out and the different outcomes, methods – more how the fight is going to go down than necessarily the absolute outcome.

I wouldn’t say that’s the most effective use of the model. I have a separate model that I use when I write my ESPN Insider articles and what that model does is actually – it’s more based on predicting inefficiencies in the market than it is predicting what’s going to go down in an actual fight.

When you’re looking at that you’re asking two different questions statistically, and because of that you have to break it down a little bit differently and analyze it a little bit differently. But I would put more stock in the method outcomes and the round outcomes because those are generated off of the 10,000 simulations and those are aggregated or compiled based on what’s most likely to occur, what’s most likely to happen.

You can definitely take from the fact that dos Santos is a 66% favorite in a sport with a lot of parity that 66% is a pretty significant advantage over his opponent. You can take that as dos Santos having a pretty big edge over Mir.

Luke Thomas: Is there a way to run this in reverse? That is, is it a fair way to gauge the accuracy of this engine to marry what actually happened in fights after the fact with what the simulation engine says about what would happen?

John Candido: Yeah, sure. When all the algorithms are built, they’re built off of historical data, but in constructing them they’re definitely tested against data that is not used in constructing the model. In a sense, in the construction of it it’s already done that.

The relevance of the algorithms that it comes up with, the relevance of the model itself is tested out beforehand to see whether or not it performs well or holds its weight against new data in anticipation of it receiving new data in the future.

So yeah, you can definitely go back and validate its performance and see how it would’ve done because its already done that in the construction of the model itself.

Luke Thomas: How often do you believe you’ll have to go back and update the algorithm and the model here as the game itself changes?

John Candido: That’s an interesting point because obviously mixed martial arts is a very evolutionary sport and things are constantly changing.

I don’t see it being a fight-to-fight basis or an event-to-event basis, but if there are new patterns that emerge and things that come up, then I’ll definitely be able to see that in the change of how new models asses weights different variables and how that kind of changes over time.

The more data we have, the better the model will be and the more accurate it will be. It will pick up on these new patterns as they arise and as new data is set in to it to train it on.

* = UFC 28 was the first UFC event to use the Unified Rules of MMA.

In the wake of Kenny Florian’s retirement, I felt it necessary to give praise to one of MMA’s improperly viewed fighters. That is, nearly everyone agrees Florian was a supremely talented fighter, but failing to win titles in three attempts across two weight classes are the true defining moments of his career.

It’s true it’s impossible to ignore those shortcomings. They are part of his history. But undo focus on them really shortchanges a fighter of pretty remarkable accomplishment.

More than almost anyone in the modern era, Florian worked with an unparalleled diligence to consistently improve his skill set. It’s true Florian’s athleticism was always a touch underrated and his improvement is partly of function of what a good athlete he actually was. But there are very few fighters one can point to from Florian’s generation or ‘class’ who developed into the final product he became given his starting point.

Every aspect of his game was sharpened. Those dimensions where he lacked severely in the early stages of his professional career ultimately became his strengths. Florian had weaknesses, too. No fighter is an android of perfect technique and execution, but the journey he traveled to position himself to win a title must’ve taken a will few among us can summon in any professional endeavor.

That he did what he did in MMA through the sweat of his brow and unfailing belief in himself is worthy of our highest praise and admiration. He unquestionably gave MMA everything he had and he did it year after year, fight after fight. We can ask for not one thing more from anyone who competes.

Fortunately, there’s more to the story than my qualitative analysis. FightMetric breaks down the numbers behind his very real accomplishments:

– Florian is the first and only fighter to compete in four different weight classes: middleweight, welterweight, lightweight, and featherweight.

– He retires with 8 wins in the UFC by submission. That ties him with the most among fighters in the modern era. Royce Gracie has more all-time submission victories.

– Florian earned 7 tapouts on 13 submission attempts, giving him a submission accuracy of 54%. That makes him the only fighter in the modern era with a submission accuracy greater than 40% (a minimum of 10 sub. attempts is required to be considered).

– He holds a perfect 7-for-7 record on rear naked choke attempts.Florian landed more significant strikes than his opponent in every one of his UFC victories. 10 of his 12 wins inside the Octagon came by way of stoppage.

– He retires having accumulate 3:07:38 of fight time. That’s the 13th highest career length in UFC history, putting him directly behind Chuck Liddell.

All quantitative data provided by FightMetric except where otherwise noted.

UFC welterweight Martin Kampmann doesn’t have the best striking in the division. He doesn’t have the best chin or the best wrestling. He is certainly not the best athlete. Yet, ahead of his main event bout tonight with rising contender Jake Ellenberger at The Ultimate Fighter Live Finale, Kampmann is as confident as any fighter can be.

It’s true the Xtreme Couture product probably isn’t the best in any single category or qualification when measured against the division’s best, but Kampmann believes the combination of his very well-rounded skill set and experience tilt this fight heavily in his favor. Perhaps most importantly, though, isn’t just talent in different dimensions of the game. It’s that Kampmann is certain he’s got precisely the offensive abilities in the exact places where Ellenberger is lacking.

“I think Ellenberger’s got a lot of holes in his ground game and Diego [Sanchez] was able to get on top of him and beating on him and I’m gonna exploit those holes if I take this fight to the ground as well,” Kampmann told Ariel Helwani this past Monday on The MMA Hour. “If it stays standing, I’m gonna pick him apart with my boxing.”

“He makes a lot of mistakes and I can exploit them,” Kampmann continued, “I’ll submit him if it hits the ground. The thing is, he’s hard to take down. He’s got good wrestling. if he tries to take me down, I’ll exploit those holes and I’ll pick him apart standing up.”

To be fair, no one is suggesting Kampmann has little reason to confident. However, it’s worth acknowledging Ellenberger’s on quite a roll. Not only has he won six straight at welterweight – an incredible feat by itself – but he’s won four of them by KO/TKO stoppage, including a first round starching of former UFC title contender Jake Shields last year. To say ‘The Juggernaut’ packs a serious punch would be an understatement.

Yet, a strong power puncher who prefers a first-round blitzkrieg isn’t something Kampmann’s never faced before. At middleweight, Kampmann withstood an early barrage from Drew McFedries to earn a first-round submission. At welterweight and during his last bout, Kampmann was dominated by Thiago Alves only to miraculously win by submission late in the third round.

Kampmann knows Ellenberger can land with authority, but why worry when you’ve weathered similar storms?

“He’s finished some tough guys,” Kampmann admitted of Ellenberger. “He’s definitely got some knockout power. He swings hard and he really commits hard to his punches. If he connects, I’m sure it’s gonna hurt, but I can eat a punch. I’m not too worried about it.”

If Kampmann believes in anything, it’s that over the long haul everything in the fight will work to his benefit. To that end, tonight’s five-round format is a fact Kampmann contends will play right into his hands.

“When you’ve only got three rounds at this level, you’re fighting tough guys, three rounds sometimes is not always enough time to get the finish in and then like you said, sometimes the judges don’t come through for you, but I’m going for the finish this time,” said Kampmann.

“This time I’ve got five rounds, so that gives me a lot more time to finish the fight,” Kampmann noted with confidence. “It’s not going to go five rounds. I’m going to finish Jake Ellenberger.”

Should Kampmann’s pre-fight banter come true and he does finish Ellenberger, where does that put him in the division? For now, there’s no telling. With the logjam at the top of the division, it’s hard to suggest any one fight earns a title shot – especially with Carlos Condit and Johny Hendricks waiting in the wings – but Kampmann is certain it’ll put him in close contention. “I haven’t heard anything about [where we stand in the division with a win] but this is two of the top guys in the welterweight division and I think we deserve to be up there with a win,” Kampmann said.

Despite the confusion, Kampmann’s got some matchmaking ideas should he prevail tonight. Specifically, if UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre can’t get back to action by his November timeline, interim champion Condit should face him instead of waiting.

“Everyone’s waiting for GSP to be ready and Condit’s waiting for the title and I can’t blame him. I’d probably like to get that unification title fight as well. If GSP’s ready by the end of the year, that’s fine. But if he takes more time, Condit should take a fight before that.”

Kampmann first has to get by Ellenberger, an incredibly difficult task. But with confidence in his skills and his journey as a top professional fighter in MMA, Kampmann’s not worried. Whether it’s a fight or the fight game itself, Kampmann is sure of one thing: over the long haul, everything will work out in his favor.

Another week, another fight and event with major implications.

Rising welterweight contender Jake Ellenberger is on the cusp of a title shot if he beats Martin Kampmann tomorrow night, but it’s not clear if he should or will get it. Interestingly, that fight takes place on the finale of TUF: Live, a show many fans and media members are wondering how to keep alive (or if it even should be kept alive). All the while, a tragedy occurred in an unregulated MMA bout in South Dakota.

To help sort out what these and other issues mean, Dave Doyle and I get our hands dirty in another edition of The MMA Roundtable.

1. If Jake Ellenberger wins on Friday, should he face Georges St. Pierre, Carlos Condit or Johny Hendricks next?

Luke: Ellenberger should face Hendricks. The winner of that bout should face the winner of GSP vs. Condit.
First, the timing would work out with relative ease. Hendricks has already planned to wait for GSP, but that’s a pipe dream. If Hendricks is serious, he’s on a path to be out longer than a year. That’s a year in a sport whose undulating path changes fighter realities and opportunities. It’s much better for him to stay active against Ellenberger. Assuming the two fought in three months, that’d put them approximately one month off from the expected November return of GSP.

Second, it’s a more defensible fight than a title shot. It’s true Ellenberger is on quite the streak, but the first top ranked opponent he defeated is Jake Shields. Beating Diego Sanchez is nice and doing it against Martin Kampmann is damn impressive, but Hendricks is the final piece of the puzzle. Jon Fitch, it should be noted, had to win eight in a row to get a shot against St. Pierre. Moreover, Hendricks is the only fighter since GSP to defeat both Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck. It’s hard to make a claim to be the undisputed contender to GSP’s crown when there is another welterweight floating in close proximity with credentials of that caliber.

If Hendricks wins, he’ll have had an arguably easier road than Ellenberger, but not all title shot paths are equally arduous. All we can ask for is approximately difficult ordeals and that no other obvious challenge go unanswered. A fight against Hendricks to settle unclear hierarchy is a challenge worth answering.

Dave: If Ellenberger wins, he should face Condit. If he doesn’t, what’s the point of even having an interim championship?

I’m not denying the logic in the scenario Luke lays out, but this assumes St. Pierre will actually be able to return in time for what the champ himself has called an optimistic projection. Torn ACLs on guys in their 30s don’t always cooperate in that sort of time frame.

If Ellenberger scores an impressive win over Kampmann, that would give him a slight edge over Hendricks in terms of who should get an interim title shot. Ellenberger is already ranked No. 3 in the USA TODAY/SB Nation Consensus welterweight rankings. A win over Kampmann, on the heels of defeating Jake Shields and Diego Sanchez, would only bolster his case. Hendricks has an impressive resume, too, but he eked out a split decision over Josh Koscheck in his last fight and that’s enough to give Ellenberger the nod.

So I say, given we don’t know if GSP is going to make it back in time for November, if an interim title is meant to be anything more than a prop, make Condit defend it, and if Ellenberger wins Friday, give him the shot.

2. What does the death of Dustin Jenson in South Dakota say about the safety of the sport in 2012?

Luke: Most of us would like to point to the fact that Jenson was fighting in unregulated territory. Fighting there is outrageously dangerous, but the other two MMA fighters who died on U.S. soil did so with at least a modicum of regulation. Regulation is preferable to the absence of regulation, but it’s hardly the cure all.

Consider that amateur MMA is dangerous even in states where MMA is properly regulated among the professional ranks. States often don’t have the budget, manpower or resources necessary to properly ensure fighter safety in contests where the only thing that can be relied upon is that none of the fighters get paid. The skill set differential between fighters is often astronomical; there are rarely blood tests that measure anything approximating performance enhancing drugs or diseases like HIV and Hepatitis; and the officiating crew is either run by the inept, corrupt or some admixture of the two. The horror stories I’ve heard and personally witnessed in amateur MMA would be enough to fill lengthy tomes.

When Dana White says MMA is a safe sport, he’s only right when talking about the UFC. The battery of tests and evaluations fighters must go through at that level has clearly proven to be a very successful screen. But the truth is it’s basically only a handful of territories that do enough preventative care to save lives. Places like New Jersey – that caught Thiago Alves‘ problematic artery-vein brain connection before his fight at UFC 111 – can be relied upon to catch serious issues ahead of time. The problem is that instances like this, while laudable, are incredibly few and far between.

I don’t know what would’ve saved Jenson. Having a paramedic and doctor in the venue? Having a commission not allow him to fight for a fifth time in less than a year? Maybe. Yes. I don’t know. What I do know is that calling for regulation is well-intentioned. It’s also a necessary component to fighter safety, but the problem is it’s hardly sufficient. Across state and international lines, ‘regulation’ means a huge variety of different things.

Dave: I’ve watched both YouTube videos of the fight, which were shot at different angles. Nothing happened during the fight which you can pinpoint as something that clearly went wrong. Jenson didn’t take an undue amount of punishment. Hensrud was sportsmanlike, releasing the hold as soon as Jenson tapped, and helped his opponent to his feet. The referee was in position the entire time and ended the fight in a timely manner.

Would proper regulation have prevented this? Maybe, maybe not. There are several responsible states out there in this regard, and Luke correctly singles out New Jersey for praise. But for every New Jersey, there seems to be three commissions which are simply content to take their share of the gate receipts and go home. So even coming up with stricter regulation of the amateur scene is no guarantee that another death in the cage won’t happen.

So with malice or incompetence from anyone in the cage that night ruled out; and whether or not regulation would have prevented this tragedy a factor you’re unable to prove or disprove, we’re left with one harsh reality: No matter how many precautions you take, no matter how hard you work to ensure fighter safety, sometimes the worst-case scenario can still happen. It’s the brutal trade-off we make in return for watching people inflict punishment on one another for our entertainment. It’s far from unique to MMA. It also happens in boxing and every other contact sport. But that doesn’t make it any easier to take when it does occur.

3. Dana White has stated changes need to be made to “The Ultimate Fighter” on FX. What changes would you recommend?

Dave: Luke, I’m going to let both you and the readers in on a little secret: In the press room Saturday at UFC 146, I confided to a fellow member of the MMA media that I haven’t watched a minute of “The Ultimate Fighter” this season, aside from fast forwarding to the fights on my DVR. Said reporter, whose name might rhyme with Sven Towlkes, laughed and told me that not only has he not watched it, but he had asked around and several other reporters haven’t either. If the people who are supposed to follow everything MMA for a living are burnt out on “TUF,” what does that say about the casual viewer?

When you ask White about “TUF,” he will simply say fans love to see fights and leave it at that. But the simple fact of the matter is, you can only watch the wacky hijinks that ensue when you lock a bunch of dudes into a house with no outside world contact so many times before the format gets stale. Maybe you can squeeze another interesting season out of “The Comeback,” a la Season 4 with Matt Serra. I’d probably watch that if the right personalities were involved. Short of that, I think it’s time to forget “TUF” and innovate the next way to promote up-and-coming fighters, which is admittedly easier said than done.

Luke: I’ll concede Dave’s got a point about scrapping the entire franchise. Some of you may recall I’ve challenged the very premise of the UFC’s strategy, namely, that you can iterate a show into sustainability. If they got rid of TUF, I’d be happy to call it a success just as much as I’d be happy to see it go.

UFC, though, seems committed to the idea they’re going to keep it around. And if that’s the case, what are the best options for change? Getting off Friday night is first and foremost. It hurts TUF and ends up making the show a poor lead-in for UFC content that follows it.

The question is do we blow up the entire format or not? I think yes. Making cosmetic changes here or there might help at the margins, but won’t really change the show’s trajectory. To me, they should host live fights Bellator style. Look at the UFC’s calendar for the month of June. They’ve got three FX cards. They’re spread way too thin. Rather than trying to do this, why not have one major FX card and leave the sort of fights that’d fill the rest of the roster for weekly TUF fights? I understand the engineering of this might prove difficult, especially in a three-month season. Perhaps they’d have to wait until the quarterfinals to start doing this. There’s lots of downsides to what I’m proposing. What I do know, though, is UFC cards are too watered down despite the UFC roster being talent rich. TUF needs a boost in visibility and the stakes of the program need to matter. Right now it feels too distant and removed from the UFC universe. Better to find a way to bring the two worlds together if the UFC is committed to keeping the show going.

4. Who deserves the next shot at Junior dos Santos’ heavyweight title?

Dave: Having sat cageside for both the Strikeforce Grand Prix finals and UFC 146, I’ve got to give Cain Velasquez the nod over Daniel Cormier. Granted, this argument could be moot if Cain is, in fact, sidelined for six months, and given that Cormier is also medically suspended and will be contractually obligated to fight once more in Strikeforce before he’s free to compete in the UFC.

But if we’re going to simply go on who deserves the shot on principle, I don’t see how you can deny Velasquez. With the exception of one fight, Velasquez has been unstoppable in the Octagon. That one loss, of course, was to dos Santos. That fight rather famously in ended 64 seconds, when dos Santos tagged Velasquez with the first significant strike of the night. That’s a circumstance that can happen to anyone in an MMA fight. Maybe it will happen again if they meet again. Or maybe Velasquez will solve the riddle of getting dos Santos of his feet, and force dos Santos to contend with the same buzzsaw Antonio Silva encountered last week.

Cormier will no doubt have his day, but to me, dos Santos and Velasquez are the clear-cut No. 1 and 2 in the division, with Cormier an equally clear-cut No. 3. So give the ex-champ his rematch.

Luke: I’m going to have to agree with my colleague here. I do believe when Overeem returns he should fight for the title if for business considerations only. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

As for Velasquez, he is more deserving than Cormier. Don’t get me wrong: Cormier has turned in one of the most impressive two years in terms of MMA growth that I’ve ever seen. But looking at precedent, Strikeforce champions who crossover into the UFC have had to fight one time before getting any title shots. That’s true for Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson and even Nick Diaz. Yes, Diaz initially was offered the shot against GSP and his own poor professionalism cost him said opportunity. But he fought B.J. Penn and then Condit for the interim title. Cormier should have to follow a similar path.

Velazquez’s only loss is to Junior dos Santos. Both fighters went into that bout with injuries and I have a hard time believing it will end the same way as their first meeting. The fight also makes sense for business realities. UFC needs all the star power they can get and Velasquez is almost there as a major attraction. He needs one or two more star-making performances in big fights and continued outreach to Latino audiences, but here’s on the cusp. If he wins, that’s a big gain for UFC. With the departure of the old guard of UFC stars already in motion, creating new ones has never been more important.

Dustin Jenson, an MMA fighter, died in an unregulated event in South Dakota on May 18th, according to the Rapid City Journal.

The report states Jenson, 26, participated in Ring Wars 74 on May 18th at the Rushmore Plaza Civic Center in Rapid City, South Dakota. In his bout with Hayden Hensrud, Jenson eventually tapped from a triangle choke. His mother-in-law, Violet Schieman, said Jensen was normal after his fight and even watched the following two fights on the card.

Jenson then returned to the locker room area to stretch when he moaned and reportedly suffered a seizure. An EMT was called to the scene and Jenson was eventually transported him to Rapid City Regional Hospital.

Schieman told the Rapid City Journal Jenson was placed in a medically induced coma to relieve pressure on his brain. Subsequent surgery to relieve the swelling was performed, but Jenson eventually died on May 24th.

“He did not wake up after the surgery and was declared brain dead at 10:23 a.m.,” Schieman told the Rapid City Journal. “He remained on life support until his organs were donated.”

The report states Jenson was participating in his fifth fight in less than a year. South Dakota does not have an athletic commission to regulate either professional or amateur mixed martial arts.

Jenson’s friends have set up a website that accepts donations to help defray medical and funeral expenses.

Jenson becomes the third MMA fighter to die in the United States directly following MMA competition. Michael Kirkham, who was 30 years of age at the time of his death, died after his professional debut in South Carolina in 2010. Sam Vasquez died at the age of 35 after suffering a subdural hemorrhage in his third professional fight in Texas.

Video of Jenson’s fight from May 18th is below (another angle of the fight can be seen here):

I’ve long felt what UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones did behind the wheel of his Bentley was a monumentally poor decision. I should know. I’ve done the same thing (though I never got in any legal trouble). Two key differences. First, I didn’t lash out at critics and detractors after the fact. Second, I didn’t have critics and detractors after the fact. When I was 24 years of age the only thing I had to lose was my wallet, which probably had very little money in it.

Join me at 1 p.m. ET today as we discuss this topic and whatever else is on your mind. There’s an absolutely sensational fight between Martin Kampmann and Jake Ellenberger this Friday, the heavyweight division is full of intriguing possibilities and the rematch between Demetrious Johnson and Ian McCall is just around the corner.

There’s also the unfortunate news a fighter died in an unregulated match in South Dakota. That deserves some discussion and inspection as well.

Remember: you can login to the ScribbleLive service with your Facebook or Twitter accounts. If that doesn’t tickle your fancy, simply create a username for this service.

See you turkeys at 1 p.m. ET.