Author: Luke Thomas

NEW YORK — Ahead of his bout with Nate Diaz at UFC on Fox 3, lightweight contender Jim Miller spoke to the media at today’s open workouts. The AMA trained-fighter discussed dealing with media responsibilities, his dislike of the weight cut but love of the ‘process’, why the loss to Ben Henderson told him he needed to train smarter, if moving on from that loss was hard to do and why improving cardio is the most important priority ahead of Saturday night.

Are the main and co-main event of this weekend’s UFC on FOX 3 lightweight and welterweight title eliminators? The answer is ‘yes’, but only if you’re lucky enough to be named Nate Diaz or Johny Hendricks.

UFC President Dana White spoke to the media Wednesday via conference call and confirmed title opportunities were technically on the line, but the chances of Miller or Koscheck earning those shots seemed remote.

“We’re in one of those situations that we were in before with [Phil] Davis and [Rashad] Evans,” said White, referencing the predicament affecting the aforementioned light heavyweights heading into UFC on FOX 2. “Should Diaz win, Diaz is definitely getting a title shot. Should Miller win, Miller’s probably going to be a fight or two away.”

White didn’t explain the calculation behind his decision. However, there is a meritorious and availability case to be made for Diaz. He’s 2-0 since returning to lightweight, beating Takanori Gomi by armbar at UFC 135 and throttling Donald Cerrone en route to a unanimous decision at UFC 141.

Miller, by contrast, had a superb run in the lightweight division from UFC 100 to UFC 128, but fell short against now champion Ben Henderson at UFC on Versus 5. The AMA Fight Club-trained fighter rebounded nicely against Melvin Guillard at UFC on FX 1, but his bout with Diaz only marks only his second fight since losing to Henderson.

According to the USA TODAY/MMA Nation Rankings, Miller is ranked 5th at lightweight while Diaz checks in at 7th. There are other lightweights ahead of both Miller and Diaz, but they’re all tied up in other bouts or have more recent career losses. Henderson is set to rematch Frankie Edgar at UFC 150 and Clay Guida will face off against Gray Maynard at UFC on FX 4. Guida is ranked higher than Diaz, but he and Maynard are also both coming off of losses.

As for Johny Hendricks and Josh Koscheck, White said their predicament mirrored Miller vs. Diaz. Should Hendricks win, he’d receive a title shot. Koscheck, on the other hand, would likely be required to fight and win one or two additional times.

Hendricks and Koscheck are ranked 5th and 6th, respectively, in the welterweight division. The only two fighters ahead of both are Jake Ellenberger and Nick Diaz. Ellenberger is scheduled to face Martin Kampmann at the TUF: Live Finale while Diaz is currently unable to fight until his suspension is lifted or expires in Nevada.

The UFC returns to over-the-air television this weekend and even tries to piggy back on arguably the most popular boxer alive. Oh yeah, and there are some great fights, too. Top lightweights Jim Miller and Nate Diaz will battle for what could be (but is not guaranteed to be) a title shot. The same stakes exist at welterweight as perennial contender Josh Koscheck faces off against fellow Divisional I NCAA wrestling national champion Johny Hendricks.

Will Hendricks become the first person since Georges St. Pierre to defeat both Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck? Will Jim Miller finally get the title shot he so desperately seeks? Can Lavar Johnson continue to make noise in the heavyweight division?

I’ll attempt to answer those questions with these predictions about UFC on Fox 3.

What: UFC on Fox 3: Miller vs. Diaz

Where: IZOD Center, East Rutherford, N.J.

When: Saturday, the fight card starts with two dark matches at 4 p.m. ET, the six-fight Fuel card starts at 5 and the four-fight televised card starts at 8 on FOX

Predictions on the four televised fights below.

Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz

I want to be cautious about this fight. While I don’t think Miller will be as hesitant to engage Diaz on the ground as Gray Maynard, I do think we should temper our expectations for brawling action (at least for the early portions of the fight). Miller is obviously the better wrestler and certainly the more athletic scrambler. If they do go to the ground, it’s not as if he can’t hold his own. But the water is treacherous there even if Miller’s a better submission grappler than he is a striker (to say nothing of the reach disadvantage).

All I’m saying is the fight will probably start slow and heat to a boil as the rounds progress. And over time, I like the guy with better mat awareness, base and offensive wrestling ability.

Pick: Miller

Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

I want to pick Hendricks and I want to say he’ll win easily, but my gut just doesn’t tell me that. It’s true I have no idea what to make of a 34-year old Josh Koscheck. That’s even more true given the camp turmoil and departure from AKA. Even still, while I respect Hendricks power I buy Koscheck’s criticism of him: he is a little wild, too in love with striking and willing to counterfight. Against a guy like Koscheck – who has fought the best of the best at welterweight – I am reluctant to think Hendricks is hugely likely to get it done. Hendricks has the power and the skills if he applies himself and maybe gets a little lucky. I just don’t see that as likely.

Pick: Koscheck

Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares

Palhares is the odds-on favorite to win and it’s not hard to see why. He’s a dynamic grappler with a skill set most people have little ability to handle. The professional grapplers I’ve spoken to about this bout tell me leg locks are often skills even black belts have a fairly basic level and Palhares’ game is exquisite on that particular front. Also of note: some leg lock experts are merciful and give you the opportunity to tap before doing damage. Palhares affords opposition no such window. This isn’t sport jiu-jitsu, but Palhares’ game is well adapted for MMA.

I think this is a pick ’em bout. Either guy is legitimately capable of pulling this one out. Belcher’s very well-rounded, but I often question his decision making. He is often far too willing to compete under terms created by his opposition, thereby giving a round or even the fight away

Pick: Palhares

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson

Johnson has the power to put anyone’s lights out in MMA, but he’s going to fall short here. His gas tank is not remarkable and while he packs a wallop, he does so at the expense of position and efficiency. Barry’s speed is underrated as is his ability to counterstrike. If Johnson lands the big shot it’s a wrap, but I suspect Barry will find a way to stay out of range until it’s time to strike.

Pick: Barry

We’re almost there, folks. The formal, on-site coverage for UFC on Fox 3 kicks off today. I know yesterday I wondered aloud why there were no Dana White video blogs and it turns out I just wasn’t paying close enough attention. There’s not only one, but two and we’ve got them both included in today’s round-up.

One of the more interesting storylines as we approach the UFC’s third show on Fox is just how much Josh Koscheck believes he’s going through of a technical renaissance now that he’s left American Kickboxing Academy. Koscheck has a new boxing coach who is suggesting that the former welterweight top contender will be able to easily exploit the technical deficiencies in Johny Hendricks‘ game.

It’s a gutsy statement, but it’s one only made possible by Koscheck admitting that up until getting this coach, he never knew basic mechanics: how to throw a jab, slip a jab and more. I don’t know if that’s true, but I also don’t know why he’d say it if it weren’t. For a fighter to admit that publicly is a rare moment of candor, folks.

5 MUST-READ STORIES

The Case for Public Fighter Pay. Our own Mike Chiappetta tries to lay out the case for why the pay fighters make should be a matter of public record.

Shannon Knapp Says UFC Very Supportive. The brains behind Invicta FC told Bloody Elbow that the brass at UFC have been complete supportive of her promotional efforts.

Ross Pearson Arrested on Suspicion of DUI. The British striker allegedly had a bit too much to drink and then decided to get behind the wheel of a car.

Clay Guida Calls Maynard Bout ‘High Risk, High Reward’. MMA Fighting spoke to the Greg Jackson-trained lightweight about the stakes in his upcoming fight with Gray Maynard.

Josh Barnett, Daniel Cormier Hold Media Scrum. Just one day before UFC 145 in Atlanta, the two Strikeforce grand prix finalists spoke to the media on a huge range of issues.

MEDIA STEW

I said there was no UFC on Fox 3 Dana White video blog yesterday. I was wrong. Here’s episode 1:

And here’s episode 2:

Remember the story of Chael Sonnen getting tricked with the shock pen while he was in Brazil? There’s video of it:

Apparently, a 53-year old man was able to get into a MMA cage and fight someone 21-years old on less than an hour’s notice. This according to Stephan Bonnar. So, I guess that’s that when it comes to regulation:

BIG SEXY GOT JOKES

Sometimes I like to go to the grocery, and do all my shopping out of other people’s carts when they’re not looking

— Sean McCorkle (@BigSexyMcCorkle) May 1, 2012

HOW RANDOM IS RANDOM?

If u ask for a random drug test, isn’t really random then?

— Duane Ludwig (@DUANEBANGCOM) April 30, 2012

ARMBAR THEM

Guess what? I still haven’t got my bag from #delta @deltaassist.Almost 2 weeks now since they lost my bag. any ideas as to what should I do?

— ROBERT DRYSDALE (@robertdrysdale) May 1, 2012

DEEP THOUGHTS, Y’ALL

In order to create, you must destroy.

— Joe Lauzon (@JoeLauzon) May 1, 2012

NOVER MAKES PREDICTIONS

Im going with Miller 4 this weekends @ufc. I’m calling it a three round decision -Miller. I think he is a bit more talented then Diaz.

— Phillipe Nover (@PhillipeNover) May 1, 2012

Look who is ringing the opening bell at the NASDAQ stock market opening bell. Oh, no big deal. Just a few UFC fighters and a Strikeforce champion. That’s all.

FIGHT ANNOUNCEMENTS

– UFC 150: Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

– UFC 150: Jamie Varner vs. Edson Barboza

– UFC 147: Yuri Alcantara vs. Hacran Dias

FANPOST OF THE DAY

Today’s Fanpost of the Day comes courtesy krste and they want to know if UFC bantamweight Dominick Cruz’s footwork and striking is so bad, how come no one is able to really hit him?

Many detractors of Dominick’s style are coming from a Boxing background and claim that his technique is flawed and ineffective. Since my striking knowledge is limited at best my counter to that is that Dominic is not a Boxer, he is an MMA fighter, so what works in boxing might not work in MMA if translated directly. To me, his head and feet movement are a thing of beauty, the way he attacks from angles and evades incoming attacks with his hands down, swaying and slipping like some sort of a zombie cobra reminds me of my younger days when me and my dad used to watch our favorite boxer, Naseem Hamed, although the zombie quality is uniquely attached to Dominick’s movement.

To get back to my original point, if the striking of the current bantamweight champion is so flawed why hasn’t anyone exploited those flaws yet, why does he still have the belt? My question is not intended to sound sarcastic, i am merely curious since i lack the knowledge of the striking game to conclude for myself whether Dominick is Mayhem-esque in his striking game or Spider like.

Josh Barnett and Daniel Cormier, the two finalists of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, spoke to the media in Atlanta before UFC 145 about a huge range of topics. The two discussed Cormier’s place in the tournament (alternate to finalist), the rest of the heavyweight division, the history of professional wrestling, Cormier’s background and experience in amateur freestyle wrestling, the relationship between wrestling and mixed martial arts and so much more.