Author: Luke Thomas

Tim Boetsch’s stunning third-round comeback victory over Yushin Okami last night was not the greatest comeback in UFC history. Frankie Edgar over Gray Maynard (II or III) or Frank Shamrock hammerfisting a kneeling Tito Ortiz en route to a TKO stoppage also stand out as a class above what happened at UFC 144.

There was also much to like in Mark Hunt’s win over Cheick Kongo. But it wasn’t entirely surprisingly nor does it move him realistically close to title opportunities.

What is true, though, is that both are accomplishing something very legitimate late in their careers. Both desperately wish to compete while they still can. Both are turning in performances that exemplify the athletic courage fight promoters crave.

Recognizing they still have limitations, both deserve to be rewarded by the UFC with big, winnable fights.

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I’m not suggesting we pretend they are something they are not. Hunt is closer to 40 years of age than he is 30. Boetsch showed clear defensive weaknesses against Okami in the first two rounds of their fight. The success of Boetsch and Hunt is more about making us reconsider what they have left, not proving they are something we never properly recognized.

Yet, neither deserves to be cynically dismissed. It would be promotional malpractice to place either in a predicament where they were at the bad end of a stylistic disadvantage. It would equally be a disservice to have them face the division’s cream of the crop (Boetsch should get close, however).

Whatever the UFC chooses for Hunt and Boetsch, their next fight should satisfy three conditions. First, it should be a fight that’s winnable even if they’re the underdogs. Second, the fighters should be able to win without having to use skills they’ve never really possessed. Third, the fight should live at or near the top of whatever card it’s on. Why pick these conditions? They make best use of the resources Hunt and Boetsch bring to a fight while being fair to their chances of success. They also won’t necessarily wreck the division’s order should the unpredictable happen.

For Boetsch, he should be given a marquee fight against rising middleweight contender Chris Weidman. Weidman and Boestch are united by their toughness, talent and deserved reputations as risk takers. Weidman proved in his win over Demian Maia at UFC on Fox 2 he might be ready for the best middleweight has to offer, but he’s also young enough that a little more seasoning could only help him. For Boetsch, it’s a chance to face a top-10 opponent who is a worthy adversary but won’t be able to lord physical strength over him (unlike Phil Davis at light heavyweight).

Relative to Boetsch, Hunt’s future should be closely guided by his ability to deliver exciting action. We have to keep managed expectations about his upside, but that’s no adjustment from what we’re already doing. Pat Barry, Stefan Struve or Travis Browne are all excellent choices as potential opponents. Mike Russow, on the other hand, is not. Hunt is 37 and shoulders no great expectations. His best use on a card is where he can help himself while facing younger contenders willing to strike. Placing Hunt against a submission-savvy wrestler in his mid-thirtees is nothing short of criminal.

Where could these fights live? The options are plentiful. A Boetsch-Weidman bout could easily serve as the co-main event of a pay-per-view (even a stacked UFC 146 could be upgraded). If you scoff at that claim, consider UFC 145’s Rashad Evans vs. Jon Jones is preceded by Che Mills vs. Rory MacDonald. Hunt vs. any of the aforementioned strikers could be great as a headliner for UFC on Fuel or a co-main event for UFC on FX. Any of those potential bouts is fun enough to get good fight card placement at any type of UFC event, but there isn’t great need for them to be on a card of major significance. The most important consideration is that whatever space these fights occupy, they deserve to be of a higher order of magnitude than the treatment Boetsch and Hunt are typically given.

When fighters are ignored, dismissed and nearly beaten yet manage to persevere, that’s a special moment in fight sport. That’s especially true when all that happens on a night where a listless Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson is improperly prepared and psychologically distracted. His seeming ambivalence stands in sharp contrast to the delightfully surprising career turnarounds of Boetsch and Hunt. As athletes in their thirties, time is not on their side, but our good will should be. We can honor their achievements, treat them fairly with careful but fair matchmaking and reward the fans without one ideal compromising the other.

Boetsch and Hunt proved they were right to not give up on themselves. By hook or by crook, they brought their careers back to life. Let’s be fair to those revivals by giving them a chance to breathe.

SAITAMA — This is the UFC 144 live blog for all the preliminary bouts in support of tonight’s UFC pay-per-view from the Saitama Super Arena.

Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka, Vaughan Lee vs. Norifumi “KID” Yamamoto, Steve Cantwell vs. Riki Fukuda and Chris Cariaso vs. Takeya Mizugaki are the four bouts to be televised on FX. Issei Tamura vs. Tiequan Zhang is the one bout to be carried on Facebook.

Follow the live blog below.

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Issei Tamura vs. Tiequan Zhang

Round 1: Tamura lands a lead left hook. Moments later, Zhang drops Tamura with a hook of his own. Wild start and Tamura is quickly back to his feet and drills Zhang with a combo and now Zhang is down. Tamura follows him to the mat with ground and pound. Tamura holds the position well and repeatedly lands hammerfists from the top. Tamura works well from the half-guard but ref Herb Dean stands them up with about two minutes left. On the restart, Tamura goes low for the takedown. Zhang attempts a guillotine to no avail. Tamura still on top and he rides out the ride there. Tamura 10-9.

Round 2: Some back and forth standup to start the round. Bad idea for Zhang, who eats a crushing overhand right. He crashes to the mat unconsious, and UFC 144 begins with a bang.

Winner: Issei Tumura via KO, Rd. 1 (0:32)

Chris Cariaso vs. Takeya Mizugaki

Round 1: Cariaso wastes little time coming out with a head kick. It misses. Cariaso lands a right-left combo that snaps Mizugaki’s head back. Miguzaki dove low for a takedown but Cariaso sidestepped him. Mizugaki got inside, secured a body lock and took Cariaso down midway through. Cariaso threatened with an oma plata. Mizugaki escaped and retained top position, peppering him with short punches to the ribs. Mizugaki stayed in Cariaso’s guard, limiting his effectiveness, but he probably did just enough to win the round, 10-9.

Round 2: Cariaso’s shorter, more compact strikes are landing more often in the standup. Mizugaki is looking for power punches. Good start to the round for Cariaso. Mizugaki shoots in and bulls Mizugaki against the fence. Mizugaki again is able to take him down. Mizugaki is slow with the offense. Cariaso sweeps out and free. Cariaso lands a short elbow as the close round ends. Cariaso 10-9.

Round 3: Cariaso tried a takedown, hoping to turn the tables. Mizugaki defended. Cariaso connects with a combination as they break and reset. A clinch against the fence. Cariaso with a nice short elbow. They break again. Cariaso tries a high kick and slips down. Mizugaki immediately swarms him, taking top position in what could be a crucial turning point. Cariaso working hard from the bottom but Mizugaki works offense from the top with elbows and short punches. Cariaso gets to his feet with 10 seconds remaining, but it’s Mizugaki’s round, 10-9.

Winner: Chris Cariaso via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Steve Cantwell vs. Riki Fukuda

Round 1: Cantwell lands a headkick as Fukuda was leaning forward to move into a takedown. Fukuda ate the kick and completed his takedown. Cantwell looked for an arm bar. No dice. Fukuda peppered Cantwell with a series of left hands from the top. Fukuda then postured up and switched to rights. Cantwell with an active guard but he’s eating punches. Finally, Cantwell creates space and gets to his feet. Cantwell lands a hard right hand. Fukuda shoots low, and Cantwell stops the attempt. Fukuda moves forward with a combo, finishing with a hard left. Cantwell with a series of kicks late. A competitive round that MMA Fighting scores for Fukuda 10-9.

Round 2: The two trade leg kicks early. Fukuda scores a takedown. Cantwell snatches a guillotine. Fukuda wouldn’t let him close his guard and snakes free. They move back to their feet and Cantwell lands some strikes from the clinch. Fukuda with a left hook, then a kick to the body as he continues his diverse striking game. He backs Cantwell to the fence and fires off a series of strikes. Cantwell may be tiring. Cantwell works out and the crowd cheers the exchange. The duo begin to trade late in the round. With :35 left a leg kick lands low on Cantwell, and the illegal strike leads to a timeout. Cantwell takes Fukuda down with :20 left but can’t do anything with it as the round ends. It’s Fukuda’s round 10-9.

Round 3: Fukuda lighting Cantwell up early. Cantwell’s gas tank is low and he’s more of a stationary target now, and Fukuda’s finding him. Fukuda takes him down two minutes in. Cantwell is active from the bottom, but Fukuda ends up taking his back. Cantwell escapes quickly and he’s back to his feet. Fukuda going to the body. His striking isn’t textbook but he comes from different angles and targets every part of the body. Fukuda is teeing off late as Cantwell fades. Cantwell has lost his last four and it looks like his losing streak will go to five as it’s another Fukuda round.

Winner: Riki Fukuda via unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Vaughan Lee vs. Norifumi “KID” Yamamoto

Round 1: Yamamoto dancing along the outside of the octagon as Lee follows him around. One minute in and little action, but Yamamoto blasts a right hook that just misses. Yamamoto with another right hook, Lee ducks underneath it. Moments later, another one and this one finds its mark. Lee stumbles backwards and Yamamoto follows with a series of punches, carefully trying to pick his target. Lee covers up well though. Yamamoto sees he’s OK and backs off. On the reset, Lee lands a knee that rocks Yamamoto. Lee hurt Yamamoto again, this time with a right hook. Lee rushed him but Yamamoto took him down. Lee went for a triangle, then switched to an arm bar, and Yamamoto had to tap.

Winner: Vaughan Lee via submission (arm bar), Rd. 1 (4:29)

Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka

Round 1:

When UFC 144 was announced, critics considered it a vanity project. Supporters, on the other hand, thought it would be a fun, but relatively unimportant effort in Zuffa’s grander global ambitions. The truth about UFC 144 is just how full of consequence it actually is. Among title shots, the ability to rejuvenate a tainted market and divisional contendership, the risks/rewards are higher for this event than any other in recent months. Let’s take a closer look and examine what’s on the line for Saturday night’s fights.

UFC 144

At stake: Opportunity cost. Here’s a thought experiment: imagine if this event was cancelled immediately, but you had to place the existing fights on other UFC fight cards within a reasonable proximity. You could divide it any number of ways, but what you’d immediately discover is how much better several other important UFC events would instantly become.

Two examples stand out. UFC 145’s headliner is arguably one of 2012’s best, but should something happen to it there’s no supporting cast on that fight card to make it a box office or pay-per-view success. UFC on FOX 3’s main event between Nate Diaz and Jim Miller could end up being fight of the year, but neither has the promotional muscle to guarantee good ratings.

The point is this: UFC serves a lot of masters. They have to annually fill shows for more than a dozen pay-per-view events, four UFC on FOX shows, two seasons of The Ultimate Fighter and much more. With a finite talent pool available, they’re doing the best they can to make each event special. One wonders, however, if resuscitating a Japanese market – an effort with no guarantee of success – is worth more putting a fighter tailor made for the FOX platform like Frankie Edgar in front of his hometown New Jersey crowd.

Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson

At stake: The title. Both fighters are young enough in their careers such that a setback here doesn’t necessarily close off second opportunities at a title. The risk, therefore, is not as high as the reward and that’s good for both competitors. The prize is enormous and a career changer for Henderson should he wrestle away the title from the champion. For Edgar, it’s unclear what effect even a dominating win over Henderson will have on the MMA community. The champion is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend (just barely), but still doesn’t command the overwhelming respect other divisional champions in the UFC enjoy. In part, that’s due to the parity of the lightweight division as well as Edgar’s less than gripping personality. Still, one wonders what will move Edgar past the tipping point of doubt or reluctance in the minds of the MMA faithful.

Quinton Jackson vs. Ryan Bader

At stake: Divisional relevance. Both Jackson and Bader had mixed success in 2011. Bader dropped two of three, but rebounded nicely against Jason Brilz at UFC 139. Jackson went one for two. Both lost to Jon Jones. At the time of this writing, Bader is ranked, 16^th in the light heavyweight division, while Jackson is 5^th. That means a win for Bader could see him return to the top ten while a loss for Jackson might push him out of that elite group. Neither fighter faces the chopping block should they lose and Rampage is popular enough to get a reasonably big fight almost no matter what happens until his inevitable departure. That said, Rampage is closer to retirement than ever. A terrible loss to Bader that pushes Rampage out of the top ten could accelerate his retirement time line. Bader, on the other hand, has an opportunity here to right the wrongs of last year against one of MMA’s most popular figures.

Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo

At stake: Consciousness. A win for either fighter doesn’t do much for their personal standings. They won’t be inched closer to title shots even as thin as heavyweight may be. Kongo and Hunt, however, possess the ability to do serious bodily harm. Given the less than stringent use of risk management by both fighters, that means the biggest threat here is physical health.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields

At stake: Unemployment. Let’s be clear about the terms: a win here is fairly essential. The assumed UFC ‘three strikes and you’re out’ rule is overstated, so it’s not as if they’ll surely be cut should they fall short. But they’d be perilously close.

Shields understandably lost to the best welterweight on the planet in his second UFC bout. He also understandably lost to one of the division’s top contenders shortly after his father’s untimely passing in his third. Losing to Akiyama – who is making his welterweight debut – now after he’s had at least some time to regroup would be nearly unforgivable. Akiyama is an excellent grappler, but this is Shields’ fight to lose particularly given Akiyama’s notorious gas tank issues.

For Akiyama, he’s useful to the UFC given his relative popularity in Japan. He could potentially occupy a roster spot courtesy the relative leeway UFC brass are likely to grant him. But dropping from middleweight to welterweight is going from the frying pan into the fryer. Shields is no easier a fight than anything he’s faced at middleweight and is arguably tougher. A win over the former Strikeforce middleweight champion would be a significant victory, but it’d also be euphemistic to say Akiyama’s got his work cut out for him on Sunday morning.

Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch

At stake: Not much. A win over a highly-ranked Okami would the biggest win of Boetsch’s career, but he’s miles away from a title shot. Okami’s mostly on this card because of his nationality and doesn’t really get much from a win over Boetch save for another try in the Octagon. Middleweight is thin enough that neither fighter is hugely set back with a loss, but the stakes are also low enough that neither is propelled too far ahead with a win.

Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski

At stake: Image blandishment. Hioki entered the UFC heralded as one of the few Japanese imports with the skills to compete with the UFC’s elite featherweights. The jury is still out on whether that’s actually true and he wasn’t particularly impressive in his UFC debut against George Roop (Roop arguably won). If he gets blasted by Palaszewski, all the hype and inflated rankings will appear to have been just that.

For ‘Bartimus’, he’s already much of a known commodity. A well-rounded veteran, he isn’t a world beater. However, he has shown capacity to rise to the occasion. He holds wins over Anthony Pettis and Tyson Griffin. Palaszewki isn’t going to challenge Jose Aldo any time soon, but beating Hioki would be in keeping with his ability to earn victories over odds-on favorites and in this case, a highly-ranked competitor.

Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon

At stake: Contendership. Lauzon told MMA Fighting’s Ariel Helwani that UFC matchmaker Joe Silva told him they wanted his fight with Pettis in Japan in case something happened to Henderson and a replacement was needed. That doesn’t mean a win over Pettis necessarily guarantees a title shot. UFC on FOX 3’s Miller vs. Diaz is likely up next. But it puts both Lauzon and Pettis near the front of a very long queue. For Pettis, that’s familiar territory. Lauzon, on the other hand, has fallen short against top flight talent each time he’s tried to climb the divisional ladder. Beating Pettis arguably puts him in the most favorable contendership position of his entire UFC career.

From the preliminary card:

• Takanori Gomi has a tougher than reported fight on his hands against Eiji Mitsuoka. A win for Gomi could push him back to the main card. A loss to Mitsuoka, which would be Gomi’s third in a row, could mean his exit from the UFC.
• Norifumi Yamamoto has a very winnable fight against the scrappy but limited Vaughan Lee. Yamamoto is a popular figure in Japan and therefore valuable to the UFC. However, if he is losing to the likes of Lee, is he worth the roster spot for the occasional visit to Japan UFC will be able to make?

TOKYO — Just days ahead of his bout with Jake Shields at UFC 144, Yoshihiro Akiyama discusses how the Japanese fans will receive him, the arrival of a ‘new Akiyama style’, how he felt about the drop to welterweight and which leading Hollywood actor inspires his fashion choices.

TOKYO — Watch below as Quinton Jackson talks about his UFC 144 fight against Ryan Bader, fighting in Japan for the first in six times, the Japan glory days and his recent criticism of UFC analyst Joe Rogan.

If you’re like most observers during Wednesday night’s UFC on FUEL TV, you probably noticed a fairly significant change to the broadcast: in-round use of statistics. As fights were taking place, graphics were flashed on the screen indicating differentials in leg kicks or punch totals.

The development is a first of its kind for mixed martial arts. According to Rami Genauer of FightMetric, the company charged with collecting that data for UFC broadcasts, the change has been a long time coming. “I thought it was inevitable and just a matter of time before [UFC] came around to it.”

Genauer says the ‘limited use’ of the practice actually began during the UFC 143 broadcast (Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks to be precise), but UFC on FUEL was the ‘coming out party’. FightMetric isn’t calling the shots about which numbers to use during broadcasts either. “That’s a decision which is made by producers of the show in concert with a company that we’ve been partnering with on this project called IDS,” Genauer notes. “They’re the ones working the head set with the UFC production staff to decide which numbers based on the statistics that are coming through would be good to display on screens.”

First, the basics: what, really, is the purpose of in-round statistics? “I think that the thing they are best suited to do is to try to tell the story of the fight,” Genauer argues. “There’s a lot of different stories which the fight produces.”

“You have in your mind before the fight begins a vision of how it’s likely to play out,” Genauer explains. “Sometimes that goes to plan and sometimes it doesn’t. And the numbers are going to be something that helps you illustrate whether you think the fight is going exactly as if it’s supposed to, if something has changed or even if you weren’t sure how it was going to happen- it might have been a toss up – now that we see the facts on the ground you can start presenting information and data to people and it will give them a better sense for what’s happening.”

“For us, it was really important that we try and broaden out and give perspective to more than just your average fans,” said George Greenberg, General Manager and Executive Vice President for FUEL TV. He echoes Genauer’s characterization. “[In-round statistics] gives us another dimension to allow a lot more viewers to appreciate the sport.”

For Genauer, it’s about bridging the divide between qualitative and quantitative. I challenged him to explain the value of scoring disparities like the kind between T.J. Dillashaw and Walel Watson. I labeled the fight a ‘beat down’ and suggested the numbers seemed unnecessary to comprehending what happened.

“The fact that you were able to label it a ‘beat down’, well, that’s a qualitative assertion. However, what is the quantitative assertion? What could we say about it that makes it a beat down?,” Genauer counters.

“Taking a look at two numbers and contrasting them against each other – 172 to 12 – that’s about as wide a gap as you’re going to find in mixed martial arts. If we had the time to be able to go back and research, we’d be able to say with some confidence that this was, I don’t know what the number is, but the fifth greatest disparity in total strikes ever in UFC history. That’s the kind of thing these numbers would allow you to say and that gives people some context and color. It just illustrates the fight in a way that everyone can see, but it just gives you something to hang your hat on.”

Genauer further challenges the suggestion statistics are unnecessary by underscoring their use during broadcasts is only unfamiliar and new in MMA. Within other sports, the practice is both commonplace and expected. Genauer says consider how noticeably absent in-game statistics would be for a sport like baseball. Every time a player walks to home plate to hit, the broadcast produces numbers: his yearly batting average or perhaps what he did earlier in the game. “Those are basic statistics. They’re in-game,” says Genauer.

“They’re just giving you point-in-time information, but they become critical at this point for every fan of the sports because they’ve watched these numbers show up on screen for so long they’re conditioned to expect them. If they’re not there, it almost becomes a glaring oversight. You wonder when a guy comes up to bat in the seventh inning, if they don’t show what he did prior in the game you’re like ‘That seems kinda weird. I wonder what he did earlier. Is he 0 for 2? Is this going to be his first hit?'”

The service FightMetric currently provides (data collection), is an important component of any broadcast that includes statistics. Genauer, however, is looking towards ‘data intelligence’. In other words, taking data and making some sort of conclusion about what it shows or suggests. “Data collection is one task and that’s something which, as you can see, is being produced right now. The second thing is data intelligence. It’s taking the numbers you have in front of you, doing research, making heads or tails of them,” says Genauer.

“I can say with confidence it’s something we’re working on: being able to produce materials that will be able to be deployed in such a way that when numbers do show up on screen – the announcers, the broadcasters, whoever it is – will be able to reference some work and be able to make some conclusions or comparisons, observations based on some historical information that we can provide to them ahead of time.”

Other types of statistics or measurements are also on their way. Next up? Something Genauer calls ‘trending’. He says all sort of trends present themselves in the course of a fight. For example, when a fighter takes a big punch or is deeply hurt you can watch the ‘ebb and flow’ of their offensive potency. “If you’re looking at guys who get hurt, their output might decline precipitously after having gotten dropped. You can start to take a look at trends within rounds because all the information comes through time-coded in real time.”

Interestingly and organically, FightMetric has become a valued source within the MMA community during disputes over winners and losers or controversial decisions. The company scores all UFC fights using their own methodology and posts the results on their website. MMA media often pore over their data to determine if the numbers confirm or deny the legitimacy of what actually took place. Would those sorts of in-demand numbers also be used during UFC events? Genauer is skeptical. “I would tend to doubt that [UFC] would want to use the data in a way that would try to assign a winner or loser based on the data.”

“You would not want to come up with a pronouncement based on the live data we’re producing which we know is going to be subject to some revision or correction after the slow motion replay is done,” Genauer continued. “I don’t think anyone has a desire to go out and preemptively shame the judges because the data came out one way and the decision comes out the other. Everyone has their own opinion on how fights should be scored. That’s fair because the criteria are qualitative.”

As the scoring issue illustrates, making statistics an integral part of the broadcast comes with challenges, from the logistical to the topical.

For Genauer, months of tests ahead of deployment proved to the FightMetric team human error would pare down the amount of information they could reliably show in real time. “You have to take a look at these numbers on screen, appreciate them for what they are, which is the quick count,” Genauer noted. “It’s the thing that we can get immediately, but at the same time if you want official numbers that are going to stand the test of time – which are going to affect peoples’ records when we do treat UFC records – those are going to be the ones we’ve collected using our existing data collection methodology. One that we stand behind because we know it’s the most accurate method humanly possible.”

Greenberg states getting the best and most important numbers in front of the viewer is the goal, but that takes experimentation. The trick is to try new things without the data obstructing the viewing experience. “We probably have ninety-five percent more information that we’re not displaying,” says Greenberg. “We’re going to – week by week or telecast by telecast – unleash a little bit more until we make sure we’re doing it in a way that makes it intelligent to the viewer and really doesn’t get in the way.”

As for the future, less will not be more. Genauer says UFC fans should expect the practice to improve – to feature both data collection and data intelligence. Or as he likes to think of it: to tell the story of the fight. “There’s reams and reams of data that’s being produced. It’s really pretty incredible when you get down into the nitty gritty. The number of data points that we’re able to produce in real time is really astounding.”